Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management Met subkop with Universal Darwinism J. Kasmire, E&I June 20, 2012
Delft University of Technology
Challenge the future
This project is made possible by European Regional Development Fund and the Communication Task Force Sustainable Greenport Westland-Oostland.
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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This project is made possible by European Regional Development Fund and the Communication Task Force Sustainable Greenport Westland-Oostland.
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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This project is made possible by European Regional Development Fund and the Communication Task Force Sustainable Greenport Westland-Oostland.
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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This project is made possible by European Regional Development Fund and the Communication Task Force Sustainable Greenport Westland-Oostland.
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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This project is made possible by European Regional Development Fund and the Communication Task Force Sustainable Greenport Westland-Oostland.
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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This project is made possible by European Regional Development Fund and the Communication Task Force Sustainable Greenport Westland-Oostland.
How do we manage a transition to a sustainable Westland Greenport?
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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Transition Management!
Scope and Feasability? UNKNOWN Upon inspection, I found that TM has: • • • •
Some assumptions need testing Some conflicts need resolved Some aspects need emphasis Some tools need more exploration
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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Assumptions that need testing?
Innovations (and transitions) are usually categorized as Radical or Incremental. This categorization involves some assumptions about the cause and effect relationships in innovation.
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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Conflicts that need resolving?
Systems Thinking vs. Stable states or equilibria Sustainability vs. Evolution Destination/being vs. Process/becoming
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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Aspects that need emphasis?
Observer dependence (static vs. patterns of change as stable or unstable) Boundary definitions Time is a dimension Irreversability
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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Tools that need exploring?
Agent based modeling! Evolutionary algorithms Open data Crowd sourcing Naive participants
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Research Questions
Can the scope or feasibility of TM be improved through UD? How TM resolve the conflicts between the different contributing theories and its stated goals? What are the selection pressures acting on the sector and how do they interact? What policy recommendations will UD TM ABMs make? Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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Research objective
Develop a UD approach to TM to improve: Clarity of system boundaries Reality of observer dependence Self organization of governance Egalitarian participation Environmental performance of industries
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Wikipedia Study
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Addresses inheritance in nonbiological evolution Examines how global selection pressures force progress on the adaptive landscape Shows that stable states are rarer than we think
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Greenhouse simulations
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Study emergent properties of technology diffusions along social networks Examine technology evolution in complex adaptive landscapes Tests assumptions about cause-effect relationships, innovations, rationality, competition
Transition to Sustainability: Improving Transition Management with Universal Darwinism
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CHP Case study •
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Track the evolution of energy intensive and energy producing technologies Examine results in light of system boundaries, observer dependence, selection pressures, co-evolution, complexity and SOC
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Contact me! •
Contact me if you want to collaborate on the use of ABM, evolution, chaos and complex adaptive systems to study innovation, technology, transitions, the future, irreversability or systemness.
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[email protected]
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