Oct 21, 2013 ... UltraTech Cement Ltd an Aditya Birla Group cement major, is among the top ...
UltraTech Cement Ltd has acquired the Gujarat. Cement Unit of ...
ULTRATECH CEMENTS LIMITED Result Update: Q2 FY14
HOLD
CMP
1955.40
Target Price
2150.00
OCTOBER 21st 2013 ISIN: INE481G01011
Index Details
SYNOPSIS
Stock Data
Sector BSE Code Face Value 52wk. High / Low (Rs.) Volume (2wk. Avg.) Market Cap (Rs. in mn.)
Cement 532538 10.00 2066.25/1404.95 8667 536190.23
UltraTech Cement Ltd an Aditya Birla Group cement major, is among the top 10 producers of cement in the world and the largest in India. UltraTech Cement Ltd has acquired the Gujarat Cement Unit of 4.8mtpa of Jaypee Cement Corporation Ltd in Gujarat with a value of Rs. 3800 crores.
Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated) YEARS
FY13A
Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS P/E
201749.40 49804.80 26554.30 96.85 20.19
FY14E
207801.88 50171.42 27383.95 99.86 19.58
FY15E
UltraTech Cement has posted net sales at Rs. 45218.70 mn as compared to Rs. 47274.20 mn in the corresponding period of the previous year.
218191.98 51554.87 27812.66 101.43 19.28
The company’s net profit declines to Rs. 2641.10 million against Rs. 5500.30 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, a decrease of 51.98%.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
During the quarter, the Company’s Profit before Interest, Depreciation and Tax is stood at Rs. 7170.80 mn During the quarter, the Company has commissioned a 25 MW TPP at Rajashree Cement in Karnataka. During the quarter ended, the combined domestic cement and clinker sales was 9.1 MnT (9.1 MnT) while it was 2.75 LmT (2.39 LmT) for white cement and wall care putty.
1 Year Comparative Graph
The Company’s 1.6 mtpa cement mill at Jharsuguda in Odisha went on stream in October, 2013. The Company is in the process of ramping up capacity by another 10 million tonnes by 2015.
ULTRATECH CEMENTS LTD
Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% and 4% over 2012 to 2015E respectively.
S&P BSE SENSEX
PEER GROUPS
CMP
MARKET CAP
EPS
P/E (X)
P/BV(X)
DIVIDEND
Company Name
(Rs.)
Rs. in mn.
(Rs.)
Ratio
Ratio
(%)
1955.40 1149.85 198.15 4481.65
536190.23 216114.30 306109.30 156128.20
96.85 63.03 8.60 288.19
20.19 18.24 23.04 15.55
3.52 2.93 3.48 4.06
90.00 300.00 180.00 200.00
Ultratech Cements Ltd ACC Ltd Ambuja Cements Ltd Shree Cement Ltd
Recommendation & Analysis - ‘HOLD’ For Q2 FY14, UltraTech Cement Ltd has posted net sales at Rs. 45218.70 mn as compared to Rs. 47274.20 mn in the corresponding period of the previous year. Profit before Interest, Depreciation and Tax is Rs. 7170.80 mn and Profit after Tax is Rs. 2641.10 mn vis-a-vis Rs. 10758.60 mn and Rs. 5500.30 mn respectively, in the corresponding period of the previous year. The combined domestic cement and clinker sales was 9.1 MnT (9.1 MnT) while it was 2.75 LmT (2.39 LmT) for white cement and wall care putty. The results for the quarter have been impacted mainly on account of lower selling prices and subdued demand. Cement demand remained sluggish on account of prolonged monsoon and low off take from the infrastructure and housing sectors. The benefit of softening in prices of imported coal was negated by the devaluation of the rupee. Logistics and raw material costs continued to rise given the high diesel prices. However, optimization of the fuel mix helped in curbing power and fuel cost to some extent. The Company’s capex plans are progressing on schedule. During the quarter the Company has commissioned a 25 MW TPP at Rajashree Cement in Karnataka. Its 1.6 mtpa cement mill at Jharsuguda in Odisha went on stream in October, 2013. The Company is in the process of ramping up capacity by another 10 million tonnes by 2015. UltraTech Cement Limited has acquired the Gujarat Cement Unit of 4.8 mtpa of Jaypee Cement Corporation Limited in Gujarat. With this acquisition of 4.8mtpa the Company's current capacity increases to 59 mtpa. With projects underway, it will stand raised to 70mtpa by 2015. Despite the prevailing muted growth of the industry, we believe the Company’s long term fundamentals and growth prospects remain intact and it will add more capacities in coming years. The outlook continuous to remains challenging. Demand growth in FY14 is likely to be around 5%, though over the long run it is likely to be over 8%. The Government is fully cognizant of issues relating to this sector. It has allocated US $ 1 trillion towards bridging the gap. This augurs well for the growth of the Company. Over FY201215E, we expect the company to post a CAGR of 6% and 4% in its top-line and bottom-line respectively. Hence, we recommend ‘HOLD’ for ‘UltraTech Cement Ltd’ with a target price of Rs. 2150.00 on the stock.
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (STANDALONE) Results updates- Q2 FY14, UltraTech Cement Ltd an Aditya Birla Group cement
Months
Sep-13
Sep-12
% Change
Net Sales
45218.70
47274.20
(4.35)
financial results for the quarter ended 30th Sep,
PAT
2641.10
5500.30
(51.98)
2013.
EPS
9.63
20.07
(52.00)
7170.80
10758.60
(33.35)
major, is among the top 10 producers of cement in the world and the largest in India, reported its
EBITDA
The company’s net profit declines to Rs. 2641.10 million against Rs. 5500.30 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, a decrease of 51.98%. Revenue for the quarter declines by 4.35% to Rs. 45218.70 million from Rs. 47274.20 million, when compared with the prior year period. Reported earnings per share of the company stood at Rs. 9.63 a share during the quarter, registering 52.00% decrease over previous year period. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs. 7170.80 millions as against Rs. 10758.60 millions in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Break up of Expenditure
During the quarter the total expenditure rose by 4 per cent mainly on account of raw material prices which are linked to the last increase in railway freight and
increase
in
diesel
prices. Total
expenditure in Q2 FY14 was at Rs. 40996.50 million as against Rs. 39266.70 million in Q2 FY13. Power and Fuel cost decline to Rs. 9566.20 millions as against Rs. 10741.10 millions in the corresponding period of the previous year. Other Expenditure was at Rs. 8503.60 million. Employee benefit expenses are 2844.40 and Cost of Materials Consumed is Rs. 6775.00 millions in Q2 FY14 are the primarily attributable to growth of expenditure.
Latest Updates •
Capex The Company’s capex plans are progressing on schedule. During the quarter the Company commissioned a 25 MW TPP at Rajashree Cement in Karnataka. Its 1.6 mtpa cement mill at Jharsuguda in Odisha went on stream in October, 2013.
•
During the quarter ended, the combined domestic cement and clinker sales was 9.1 MnT (9.1 MnT) while it was 2.75 LmT (2.39 LmT) for white cement and wall care putty.
•
UltraTech Concrete, a division of UltraTech Cement Limited has introduced a number of specialty concrete products for the design and construction industry. The company has achieved a new landmark by supplying M80 Self-Compacting Concrete "UltraTech Freeflow" and M80 High grade Concrete "UltraTech Hypercon". In India, UltraTech Concrete takes pride in being the first commercial supplier of M80 Self-Compacting Concrete.
•
UltraTech Cement Limited acquired the Gujarat Cement Unit of 4.8mtpa of Jaypee Cement Corporation Limited in Gujarat UltraTech Cement has approved the acquisition of the Gujarat Cement Unit of Jaypee Cement Corporation Limited (JCCL), comprising an integrated cement unit at Sewagram and grinding unit at Wanakbori at enterprise value of Rs. 3,800 crores. With this acquisition of 4.8mtpa the Company's current capacity increases to 59mtpa.
•
During the quarter, the Company has allotted 27,988 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each to the option grantees pursuant to the exercise of options under the Company's Employees Stock Option Scheme - 2006. As a result of such allotment, the paid-up equity share capital of the Company increased from 274,182,511 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each to 274,210,499 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each.
•
The company has approved the expansion of capacity at Aditya Cement Works in Rajasthan by 2.9 Mn.Mt including the setting up of two grinding units. With envisages a capital outlay of around Rs.2, 000 crores to be funded through a mix of internal accrual and borrowings. The additional facility is expected to be commissioned by March, 2015.
COMPANY PROFILE UltraTech Cement Limited, an Aditya Birla Group cement major, is among the top 10 producers of cement in the world and the largest in India with a capacity of 53.90 million tonnes. With around INR 201749.40 million in revenues and anchored by 12,660 employees, UltraTech has 11 integrated units, 15 grinding units, one clinkerisation plant and five bulk terminals across India, UAE, Bahrain, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. It is also the largest producer of white cement, wall care putty and ready mix concrete in India. UltraTech offers solutions for the construction industry with its presence in building products - dry mix mortar, concrete blocks and water proofing. UltraTech stands for premium quality, reliability, green technology and innovation, making it the choice of every discerning engineer and consumer. Business Area UltraTech is India's largest exporter of cement clinker spanning export markets in countries across the Indian Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East. UltraTech and its subsidiaries have a presence in 5 countries through 11 integrated plants, 1 white cement plant, 1 clinkerisation plant, 15 grinding units, 2 rail and 3 coastal terminals and 101 RMC plants. The company exports over 2.5 million tonnes per annum, which is about 30 per cent of the country's total exports. UltraTech's products include Ordinary Portland cement, Portland Pozzolana cement and Portland blastfurnace slag cement. Ultratech Building Solutions Ultratech Cement Birla White Ultratech concrete Ultratech Building Products Products UltraTech Cement UltraTech Cement is the ultimate 360º building materials destination, providing an array of products ranging from grey cement to white cement, from building products to building solutions and an assortment of ready mix concretes catering to varied needs and applications. Products Ordinary Portland cement Portland blast – furnace Slag cement Portland Pozzolana Cement
Cement to European and Sri Lankan norms Star Cement UltraTech Concrete UltraTech's Specialty Concrete is concrete specially designed to achieve one or more property, behavior, composition or performance. It is usually superior when compared to conventional concrete. Specialty concrete has multiple applications. It is designed specifically for a typical end application in a project. Specialty concrete needs special. Products Ultratech Concrete Colourcon Ultratech Concrete Fibrecon Ultratech Concrete Thermocon Ultratech Concrete Hypercon Ultratech Concrete Pervious Ultratech Concrete Decor Ultratech Concrete Free Flow Ultratech Concrete Stainless UltraTech Building Products UltraTech Building Products offers a complete portfolio of end-to-end solutions, covering the entire spectrum of construction. With products that include SEAL & DRY (total waterproofing solution) and SUPERSTUCCO (polymer modified mortar) Products UltraTech Xtralite UltraTech Seal & Dry UltraTech FixBlock UltraTech Readiplast UltraTech Super Stucco UltraTech Power Grout UltraTech Building Solution The company has seen a major shift in market dynamics, especially when it comes to distribution channels. Companies relying solely on traditional modes of distribution (Agents, Stockists and Dealers) have increasingly forayed into retail to actively engage with the end consumer.
Birla White cement Birla White cement offers a pristine white canvas for crafting architectural elegance. Its exceedingly high refractive index and high opacity imparts brilliant lustre and a smooth finish to surfaces, even when blended with pigments. It gives the freedom to create designs with a wide palette of colours, textures, shapes and sizes. Products Birla White Wallcare Putty Birla White Textura Birla White GRC Birla White Level Plast Subsidiary Companies Dakshin Cements Limited, Harish Cement Limited, Gotan Lime Stone Khanij Udyog Private Limited, UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited, UltraTech Cement Lanka (Pvt) Limited PT UltraTech Mining Indonesia
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (STANDALONE)
(A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)
Balance Sheet as at March31, 2012 -2015E FY12A SOURCES OF FUNDS Shareholder's Funds Share Capital Reserves and Surplus 1. Sub Total - Net worth Non Current Liabilities Long term borrowings Deferred Tax Liabilities Other Long term Liabilities Long Term Provisions 2. Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Short Term Borrowings Trade Payables Other Current Liabilities Short Term Provisions 3. Sub Total - Current Liabilities Total Liabilities (1+2+3) APPLICATION OF FUNDS Non-Current Assets Fixed Assets Tangible assets Intangible assets Capital Work in Progress Intangible assets under development a) Sub Total - Fixed Assets b) Non-current investments c) Long Term loans and advances 1. Sub Total - Non Current Assets Current Assets Current Investment Inventories Trade receivables Cash and Bank Balances Short-terms loans & advances Other current assets 2. Sub Total - Current Assets Total Assets (1+2)
FY13A (Rs.in.mn)
FY14E
FY15E
2740.70 125857.50 128598.20
2741.80 149606.40 152348.20
2742.10 176990.35 179732.45
2742.10 204803.01 207545.11
36481.90 17377.70 24.00 1205.70 55089.30
38939.20 19059.20 18.10 1340.20 59356.70
41275.55 20965.12 24.44 1501.02 63766.13
43339.33 22223.03 28.83 1636.12 67227.31
1619.20 20394.90 16748.60 7001.70 45764.40 229451.90
5687.60 21934.30 25409.00 9351.80 62382.70 274087.60
6370.11 22811.67 29982.62 9538.84 68703.24 312201.82
7007.12 23952.26 35379.49 10492.72 76831.59 351604.00
115972.40 369.40 18959.90 6.40 135308.10 11478.30 14623.20 161409.60
130740.00 483.60 35053.10 0.60 166277.30 19817.70 9831.70 195926.70
145121.40 570.65 42764.78 0.69 188457.52 12881.51 10716.55 212055.58
158182.33 639.13 51317.74 0.76 210139.95 15844.25 11466.71 237450.91
26409.40 20359.40 7659.60 1895.80 11635.80 82.30 68042.30 229451.90
31269.50 23504.70 10172.40 1426.60 11731.10 56.60 78160.90 274087.60
45465.85 26889.38 12512.05 1546.43 13639.14 93.39 100146.25 312201.82
53559.51 29578.31 14513.98 1670.15 14730.27 100.86 114153.09 351604.00
Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2012 to 2015E Value(Rs.in.mn)
FY12A
FY13A
FY14E
FY15E
12m
12m
12m
12m
183131.30
201749.40
207801.88
218191.98
Other Income
3718.70
3050.00
3416.00
3552.64
Total Income
186850.00
204799.40
211217.88
221744.62
Expenditure
-141657.10
-154994.60
-161046.46
-170189.74
Operating Profit
45192.90
49804.80
50171.42
51554.87
Interest
-2238.60
-2097.10
-2411.67
-2701.06
Gross profit
42954.30
47707.70
47759.76
48853.81
Depreciation
-9025.60
-9453.70
-9831.85
-10225.12
Profit Before Tax
33928.70
38254.00
37927.91
38628.69
Tax
-9466.80
-11699.70
-10543.96
-10816.03
Net Profit
24461.90
26554.30
27383.95
27812.66
Equity capital
2740.70
2741.80
2742.10
2742.10
125857.50
149606.40
176990.35
204803.01
Face value
10.00
10.00
10.00
10.00
EPS
89.25
96.85
99.86
101.43
Description Net Sales
Reserves
Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 31st Mar, 2013 to 31st Dec, 2013E Value(Rs.in.mn)
31-Mar-13
30-Jun-13
30-Sep-13
31-Dec-13E
3m
3m
3m
3m
Net sales
54720.40
49802.00
45218.70
47027.45
Other income
1004.80
1655.50
376.10
545.35
Total Income
55725.20
51457.50
45594.80
47572.79
Expenditure
-41899.20
-39084.40
-38424.00
-38092.23
Operating profit
13826.00
12373.10
7170.80
9480.56
-478.10
-660.30
-887.50
-931.88
Gross profit
13347.90
11712.80
6283.30
8548.69
Depreciation
-2459.90
-2520.80
-2572.50
-2623.95
Profit Before Tax
10888.00
9192.00
3710.80
5924.74
Tax
-3626.00
-2466.00
-1069.70
-1747.80
Net Profit
7262.00
6726.00
2641.10
4176.94
Equity capital
2741.60
2741.80
2742.10
2742.10
Face value
10.00
10.00
10.00
10.00
EPS
26.49
24.53
9.63
15.23
Description
Interest
Ratio Analysis Particulars
FY12A
FY13A
FY14E
FY15E
89.25
96.85
99.86
101.43
EBITDA Margin (%)
24.68%
24.69%
24.14%
23.63%
PBT Margin (%)
18.53%
18.96%
18.25%
17.70%
PAT Margin (%)
13.36%
13.16%
13.18%
12.75%
21.91
20.19
19.58
19.28
ROE (%)
19.02%
17.43%
15.24%
13.40%
ROCE (%)
32.52%
30.08%
26.39%
23.96%
Debt Equity Ratio
0.30
0.29
0.27
0.24
EV/EBITDA (x)
12.66
11.63
11.61
11.34
Book Value (Rs.)
469.22
555.65
655.46
756.88
4.17
3.52
2.98
2.58
EPS (Rs.)
P/E Ratio (x)
P/BV Charts
OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
At the current market price of Rs.1955.40, the stock P/E ratio is estimated 19.58 x FY14E and 19.28 x FY15E respectively.
Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs.99.86 and Rs.101.43 respectively.
Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% and 4% over 2012 to 2015E respectively.
On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 11.61 x for FY14E and 11.34 x for FY15E.
Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 2.98 x and 2.58 x respectively for FY14E and FY15E.
We recommend ‘HOLD’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.2150.00 for Medium to Long term investment.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Cement is one of the core industries which plays a vital role in the growth and development of a nation. The cement industry in India has been expanding significantly on back of increasing infrastructure activities and demand from housing sector. Keeping in line with the technological world, the Indian cement industry has transited itself into a more advanced one. At present, the Indian cement industry is positioned on the second rank globally and comprise of 183 large and 365 mini cement plants.
Moreover, the Indian cement majors, including ACC Ltd, Shree Cement Ltd and Ultratech, have signed a cooperation pact to support low-carbon investments in India. The pact was signed in Geneva with member companies of the World Business Council (WBC) for Sustainable Development’s Cement Sustainability Initiative and International Finance Corporation (IFC). The roadmap will pose as a possible transition path for the Indian cement industry to reduce its direct emissions by 18 per cent by 2050. This is the first roadmap to focus on one specific industrial sector in a single country, as per a WBC release. Market Size A RNCOS report titled “Indian Cement Industry Outlook 2015” estimated that the total installed capacity of cement in India will increase with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 7 per cent during 2012-13 to 2014-15. The production of cement has increased at 10 per cent CAGR over FY07-11. The market size of the industry is expected to grow from 223.4 MTPA during FY12 to 550 MTPA by FY20. The cement companies in India are receiving full attention from the private equity (PE) firms for funding their business plans. India’s cement sector is with an overall capacity of 350 MTPA. The companies including UltraTech, ACC, Ambuja Cements, Jaiprakash and Shree Cement control almost half the country’s cement market. In the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12), the industry added 120 MT of new capacities and is expected to reach close to 470 MT by 2017. Investments The cement and gypsum products sector has attracted foreign direct investments (FDI) worth US$ 2,656.29 million between April 2000 to June 2013, according to the data published by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). •
Malaysia’s Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) has expressed interest in the construction of 300 km long Agra-Lucknow expressway project, linking the Taj city with the state capital, at an estimated cost of around Rs 11,000 crore (US$ 1.78 billion) in Uttar Pradesh
•
The Government of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) will set up a cement plant with 1,000 tonnes per day capacity with the aim of capturing local market share for the cement
•
Ultratech Cement has initiated steps to set up a Rs 2,500 crore (US$ 405.38 million) Greenfield cement plant in Tamil Nadu (TN) and will add to the 36 MT cement production capacity in TN. The Company also plans to set up a 5.5 MTPA cement plant with 4.5 MT clinker production, 75 megawatt (MW) captive power plant and a waste heat recovery facility of about 15 MW
•
Orient Cement Ltd has received environmental clearance for its three MTPA cement plant at Chittapur in Gulbarga district of Karnataka
•
Shiva Cement plans to enhance its production capacity to one MTPA with an investment of Rs 270 crore (US$ 43.78 million)
•
ACC Ltd, aims to enter the north-coastal Andhra Pradesh market through its product called Coastal Plus particularly suited to coastal areas as it is corrosion-proof, according to Mr Kurian Chandapillai, Director (sales) of the eastern region. The company had acquired a small cement (Encore) in the Visakhapatanm Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and spent Rs 80 crore (US$ 12.97 million) on it, making it a 30,000 tonne per month plant
Government Initiatives During the 12th Five Year Plan period (2012-17) the industry is estimated to add a capacity of 150 MT. Giving impetus to the market, the Government of India plans to roll out public-private partnership (PPP) projects worth Rs 1 trillion (US$ 16.33 billion) over the next six months. The Principal Secretary in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) will monitor these projects. Also, the steering group appointed by Dr Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India, to accelerate infrastructure investments, has set deadlines for the award of projects such as Mumbai rail corridor and Navi Mumbai Airport, among others. With focus on the green initiatives, Goa State Pollution Control Board (GSPCB) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Vasavdatta Cement, a company with its plant in Karnataka. The firm would use the plastic waste collected by the state agencies and village panchayats from Goa to use the waste as fuel for its manufacturing plant. Road Ahead Indian cement industry is globally competitive as the industry witnessed healthy trends such as cost control, continuous technology upgradation and increased construction activities. With the ever increasing industrial activities, real estate, construction and infrastructure, in addition to the onset of various Special Economic Zones (SEZs) being developed across the country, there is a demand for cement. In addition, it is estimated that India needs about US$ 1 trillion from 2012-13 to 2016-17 to fund infrastructure such as ports, airports and highways to boost growth, thereby promising a good outlook for the industry.
Disclaimer: This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.
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