Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 1450e1458
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Using participatory modelling to compensate for data scarcity in environmental planning: A case study from India Henk Ritzema a, *, Jochen Froebrich a, Ramakrishna Raju b, Ch. Sreenivas c, Rob Kselik a a
Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands Sagi Ramakrishnam Raju Engineering College, Chinamiramn, Bhimavaram, W.G. District, Andhra Pradesh, India c Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Undi Network Centre, 534 199, W.G. District, Andhra Pradesh, India b
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 26 March 2009 Received in revised form 8 March 2010 Accepted 11 March 2010 Available online 15 April 2010
Participatory modelling has provided a new approach to overcome the problem of data scarcity which formerly interfered with the environmental planning for the restoration of the Kolleru-Upputeru wetland ecosystem on the east coast of Andhra Pradesh in South India. New ways had to be found to address the shortcomings of traditionally validated simulation models. The traditional validation process was replaced by joint plausibility discussions and shared vision building in order to improve the understanding of cause-effect relationships and proposals for restoration measures. This study has aimed to match the tacit knowledge of the local stakeholders with explicit scientific knowledge in order to create (i) a mutual basis for an integrated approach as opposed to single-issue measures and (ii) a mutual agreement on follow-up steps needed to sustain both the livelihood of the people as well as the wetland ecosystem. The challenge was to address the hydrological and social complexity. On the basis of a literature review, input data for model simulations were generated from the location-specific knowledge of stakeholders and a rapid field appraisal. The model simulations were used to predict the effects of a number of restoration options. In two workshops, these restoration options were discussed with the stakeholders in order to improve the mutual understanding of the complexity of the wetland system and to reach an agreement on the outlines of an integrated action plan. The participatory modelling approach proved to be a useful tool to obtain a consensus of opinions among the stakeholders. Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Delta system Estuary Environment Salt-water intrusion Duflow Stakeholder participation Integrated water resources management
1. Introduction
Software information Name of software: DUFLOW Modelling studio Type: Research, education and management tool Availability: U&U License including purchase and support V2,500 Online documentation: www.mx-groep.nl/duflow/ Contact: Duflow Service Desk, Patrijsweg 32, 2289 EX Rijswijk, the Netherlands, Tel: 31 (0)70 - 307 37 33, Fax: þ31 (0)70 - 307 37 00, service desk: : www.mx-groep.nl/ duflow/
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ31 (0)317 486 607; fax: þ31 317 419000. E-mail address:
[email protected] (H. Ritzema). 1364-8152/$ e see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.010
Lake Kolleru (30,855 ha) is the largest freshwater wetland ecosystem in South India (Durga Prasad and Padmavathi, 2003). It is located in between the deltaic plains of the Godavari and Krishna Rivers on the east coast of Andhra Pradesh (16 320 - 16 450 N and 81050 - 81200 E). The Lake is connected to the Bay of Bengal through the Upputeru River or “Salt Stream” (Fig. 1). The Lake is shallow and fresh but, because of its low elevation, brackish conditions prevail in the south-eastern part, especially during dry summer months, due to salt water intrusion through the Upputeru River. The Lake, home for 189 species of birds, including the rare and endangered Grey Pelican, has been designated as a RAMSAR1 site and was declared a wildlife sanctuary for the protection of birds and other wildlife in 1999 (Government of Andhra Pradesh,
1 The Convention on Wetlands, signed in Ramsar, Iran in 1971, is an intergovernmental treaty which provides the framework for national action and international cooperation for the conservation and wise use of wetlands and their resources (Convention of Wetlands, 1971).
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Fig. 1. GIS contour map of Lake Kolleru and the Upputeru River wetland ecosystem.
1999). This wetland ecosystem is under threat due to: (i) siltation as a result of erosion in the upland catchment; (ii) conversion of open water into fish ponds and paddy fields; (iii) pollution with dissolved salts, pesticides and fertilizers from neighbouring agricultural lands; (iv) sewage and industrial waste water from sugar, paper and food processing industries, and; (v) salt water intrusion due to reduced outflow and the construction of a straight cut canal (M16) in the mouth of the Upputeru River (Anjaneyulu and Durga Prasad, 2003). This has led to a sharp reduction in the lake’s area and volume and to excessive growth of weeds and water hyacinth. In combination with over-fishing by the local population, this has resulted in a sharp decline in fish catches, loss of biodiversity, flooding of the adjacent agricultural lands and salinisation of the downstream areas. The degradation of the lake not only threatens the fragile ecology but also the livelihoods of the local population (about 200,000 people) living in 148 villages and fishing communities in and around the lake (Shivaji Rao, 2003). The Government of Andhra Pradesh has recognized the urgent need to stop further degradation and has initiated a number of restoration measures. The latest measure, dismantling of fish ponds below the 1.5 mþ MSL (mean sea level) contour line, has led to fierce opposition from local fishermen and fishpond owners. The opposition became so severe that, at the end of 2006, the Government had to enforce a curfew, i.e. part of the region was placed under martial law and declared restricted area. A major point of conflict is that the restoration measures in general focus on only one of the problems and subsequently often deteriorate the conditions in other parts of the system. For example, the shortcut M16 was excavated in the mouth of the Upputeru River to increase the hydraulic gradient and flow rates in order to reduce the siltingup of the river mouth (Fig. 1). This shortcut, however, resulted in increased salinisation during the dry season (note that this siltation is mainly caused by sand transport along the coast and not so much by sediment transport in the river itself). To develop strategic action plans for the management of lakes in India the Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) approach is recommended (Reddy and Char, 2004). IWRM is emerging as an alternative to the top-down approach that was
central to water resources management in the 20th century (Castelletti and Soncini-Sessa, 2006). IWRM is a process that promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems (Global Water Partnership, 2003). Operationally, the IWRM approach involves the application of knowledge from various disciplines as well as the insights from diverse stakeholders. As such, IWRM is a comprehensive, participatory planning and implementation tool for managing and developing water resources in a way that balances social and economic needs, and that ensures the protection of ecosystems for future generations. In Europe, this is acknowledged by the EU Water Framework Directive (European Union, 2008). This directive strongly emphasises the potential and need for increased stakeholder participation in water management (Jonsson et al., 2007). Simulation models can be used to elucidate interrelationships between stakeholders and to suggest solutions that are acceptable to all stakeholders. Examples are “Waterwise” (http://waterwijs.nl), a bio-economic model developed in the Netherlands for spatial planning of lowland basins (Van Walsum et al., 2007) and “Aquastress”, an EU-integrated project to develop participative approached in water stress management (Máñez et al., 2007). Similar initiatives took place in the United States, where the Institute for Water Resources of the US Army Corps of Engineers, developed the Shared Vision Planning Method (SVP). The SVP method integrates planning principles, modelling and collaboration into a practical forum for making water resources management decisions (Institute for Water Resources, 2009). A participatory modelling approach that involves local stakeholders with their (tacit) knowledge of the local conditions and circumstances allows researchers to concentrate on the modelling process, rather than on the often time-consuming data collection (Argent and Grayson, 2003). Participatory modelling can help to achieve a common understanding or vision of how water resource systems function and how they can be managed in a sustainable way (Loucks, 2006). In planning, simple, easy-to-understand models designed in collaboration with the stakeholders are useful
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tools (Berkhoff, 2007). However, both researchers and stakeholders have to be trained to be able to apply such a participatory approach (Mustajoki et al., 2004). Participatory modelling requires a sound baseline development. The essence of model validation is usually to define the reliability for using models as a base for planning. In data scarce regions, alternatives to a traditional model validation will help to agree on a joint basis for discussing priorities of management options. Until now, not much research is done to use the implicit knowledge of stakeholders to create input data sets and to use this information for base line plausibility checks. Even if this gives less accurate results than would be the case with the availability of detailed input data sets, the potential to reach a shared vision on the needs for certain environmental measures is higher. Participatory Learning and Action (PLA) is an approach for joint learning and planning with communities (Goss, 2004; Thomas, 2002). PLA goes beyond mere consultation and promotes the active participation of communities in the issues and interventions that shape their lives. It enables local people to share their perceptions and identity, and prioritize and appraise issues from their knowledge of local conditions. By combining the sharing of insights with analysis, PLA provides a catalyst for the community to act on what is uncovered. In this paper a participatory modelling approach, based on the IWRM and PLA principles, is presented. The approach was developed to support the environmental planning for the restoration of the Kolleru Lake and Upputeru River ecosystem. This project, initiated in 2006, was implemented by the Undi Centre of Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU) and S.R.K.R Engineering College, Bhimavaram, both from Andhra Pradesh, India. Technical assistance was provided by Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands. The overall objectives of the project were to achieve a better understanding of this fragile ecosystem, to assess the effects of various restoration measures and to come to agreement with the stakeholders on the outlines of an integrated action plan. 2. Materials and methods A major challenge in environmental planning in countries like India is the general lack of (reliable) data sets, especially of long-term data records. In the Kolleru-Upputeru wetland ecosystem the many, often conflicting land use functions, made the problems even more complex. A further escalation of unrest urged the necessity of bringing stakeholders together and avoiding the time-consuming collection of additional data on this hydrological and societal complex ecosystem. Experience that was obtained in the USA shows that the participatory modelling should be treated as a process (Voinov and Brown Gaddis, 2008), and thus should be incremental, iterative and continuous (d’Aquino et al., 2002). Focusing on dynamics instead of results and focusing on wide-ranging analysis instead of quantitative data are ways to enable progress in conflict-laden negotiations. Based on the above considerations and the IWRM and PLA principles, a four-step participatory research approach was developed, i.e. (Fig. 2): A participatory problem analysis based on a literature review and a stakeholder consultation. The stakeholders were asked to express their views on the problems and to suggest appropriate interventions for tackling these problems; A reconnaissance survey to collect additional data required for the model simulations; Model simulations to get a better understanding of the complex ecological system and to predict the effects of a number of interventions to restore the wetland ecosystem; Participatory learning and action (PLA) workshops to discuss the complexity of the ecosystem with the stakeholders and to formulate and agree upon the outlines for an integrated approach for the restoration of the Kolleru-Upputeru wetland ecosystem.
2.1. Participatory problem analysis Data for a detailed problem analysis and input for the model simulations was derived from a literature review and a stakeholder consultation. The aim was to collect the following information: topography; land use and land use changes; pollutants entering the ecosystem (both from point and non-point sources); other
Fig. 2. Four-step approach for the participatory modelling study adopted by the project.
basin-related causes of impairment like reclamation activities, dredging in the river mouth, road construction, diversion of river tributaries; growth of water hyacinth and other water weeds; ecological values of the wetland ecosystem: flora and fauna and (if available) their interrelations with water quantity and quality; the cultural and legal situation; and existing restoration plans and actions. The latter include measures like dismantling fish ponds, source control, in-lake treatment and shore line management, including people’s participation, environmental education and awareness campaigns. A stakeholder analysis using the Participatory Rapid Diagnosis and Action Planning approach (van der Schans and Lempérière, 2006) was conducted. Public and private organisations that, one way or the other, had a stake in the activities in and around Lake Kolleru and Upputeru River were identified and invited to participate in the problem analysis by contributing their knowledge and experiences. The environmental problems of Lake Kolleru received a lot of attention in the local press (newspapers, radio and television), thus the study team decided to look for publicity to make sure that all stakeholders or their representatives were reached. Interviews were given to local news papers, radio and television stations and stakeholders were asked to come forward. The stakeholders were asked to give their views on the problems and the most appropriate interventions they would like to take to solve these problems. 2.2. Reconnaissance survey The match between the explicit knowledge of the researchers (their modelling experiences), the literature review and the tacit knowledge of the stakeholders (the result of the above-mentioned consultations) revealed a gap in the data needed for the model simulations. Thus the next step was a rapid field appraisal to collect additional data, i.e. (i) the longitudinal profile and cross sections of the Upputeru River at 500 m intervals; (ii) monthly measurements of the salinity levels along the river and in Lake Kolleru, and (iii) water levels at an hourly interval during full moon and new moon to establish the tidal range. The survey was conducted in close cooperation with those government agencies (Agriculture and Irrigation) that are already involved in the management of Lake Kolleru. 2.3. Modelling For the model simulations, Duflow, a one-dimensional, non-steady state model for water movement and water quality (MX.Systems, 2004), was used in combination with a GIS-system (Arc GIS 9.1version). AutoCAD was used to digitize the topographic maps, to analyze the variation in the lake’s area and volume over time and to generate data for the model simulations. Duflow was originally developed to simulate the water movement (both quantitatively and qualitatively) in estuaries in the South-west of the Netherlands. Duflow has a user-friendly graphical interface. A scenario manager allows you to calculate various scenarios and to
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knowledge of the researchers is an essential element of the capacity development process (Ritzema et al., 2008c). The success of participative planning strongly depends on the commitment of those institutions, businesses and communities that are closely involved, and that the interventions are appropriate to local circumstances and needs (Jeffrey and Russell, 2007). Thus, two PLA Workshops were organized to give the stakeholders the opportunity to express their views on the problems and preferences. The first workshop was used to create mutual understanding that single-issue solutions would not stop further degradation and to achieve consensus for an integrated approach. The second workshop was organised to work out the details of this integrated approach.
3. Results 3.1. Problem analysis and reconnaissance survey
Fig. 3. Schematization of the Lake Kolleru and Upputeru River wetland ecosystem.
compare the results. Duflow is commercially available and supported by an online helpdesk (http://www.mx-groep.nl/duflow). One of the reasons for selecting Duflow was that the model was successfully used under similar conditions, i.e. in a participatory research study to develop conceptual designs to improve the functioning of the water management system in polders in the Red River Delta in Vietnam (Ritzema et al., 2008b). The purpose of the simulations was not to optimize the technical design of the proposed restoration measures but to increase stakeholder interaction. Simulating alternative solutions is a method to encourage stakeholders to negotiate alternative solutions (La Grusse et al., 2006). To familiarize the Indian researchers with Duflow and the concept of participatory modelling, two Indian researchers participated in a one-month, collaborative research programme in Wageningen (Sreenivas, 2006).
2.4. PLA workshops One of the principles of IWRM is social learning, i.e. stakeholders learning to manage the issues in which they are involved (Ridder et al., 2005). This integration of the implicit, or tacit, knowledge of the stakeholders with the explicit, or formal
The stakeholders identified during the stakeholder analysis included not only (representatives of) farmers, fishermen, land owners, non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) but also those government agencies (Agriculture, Irrigation, Treasury, etc.) and research organizations that are involved in the planning and design of the restoration measures. During the problem analysis, stakeholders were asked to present their views on the problems and the most appropriate interventions they would like to undertake to solve these problems. As a first step, they were approached individually and were not brought together, because their views would most likely have been impaired by mutual mistrust. The complexity of the Kolleru-Upputeru ecosystem becomes comprehensible when it is divided into five components, i.e. the upland catchment, the Krishna Delta, the Godavari Delta, the Lake Kolleru and the Upputeru River (Fig. 3). In a Strength-WeaknessOpportunities-Threat (SWOT) analysis the data collected during the literature review, the stakeholders’ consultation and the reconnaissance survey was used to identify the main sources of pollution and degradation (Fig. 4). The upper catchment (5400 km2) accounts for about 80% of the inflow to the lake (Sreenivas, 2006). The average rainfall in the catchment is about 1000 mm y1, and is mainly concentrated in the Kharif (or monsoon) season (July to November). Agricultural activities in the catchment, mainly horticulture and dryland cropping, have expanded considerably over the last two decades.
Fig. 4. Result of the SWOT analysis showing the main problems and challenges.
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Because of this intensification in land use, erosion has increased, resulting in high sediment loads in the water flowing into the Lake. Already two detention reservoirs were constructed in the upper catchment, but these reservoirs could not arrest siltation of the lake (Shivaji Rao, 2003). The agricultural lands south-west of the lake, located in the Krishna Delta, do not contribute much to the inflow to the lake. These lands only receive irrigation water from the Krishna River during the Kharif season and therefore no water is available for a second crop in the Rabi (or dry) season. The drainage water that is evacuated to the lake has high salt concentrations (between 1.8 and 8.2 dS m1). These salts originate from the irrigation water and have to be leached to sustain the agricultural productivity (Ritzema et al., 2008a). The drainage water is also heavily polluted with untreated industrial and domestic sewage water (Ramani and Anjaneyulu, 2003). A larger inflow into the lake is received from the Godavari Delta, located north-east of the Lake. Water from the Godavari River is available the whole year around, and consequently two rice crops per year are grown. On this side of the Lake, there has been a steady conversion from paddy to aquaculture in the last decades. This has deteriorated the quality of the water discharging into the lake, especially the salt load increased significantly. The Lake itself is rather shallow; satellite data from 2002 were used to prepare a contour map of the lake (Fig. 1). Based on a comparison of contour maps prepared in 1967 and remote sensing data from 2002, sedimentation on the lake bed is estimated to be around 2.5 cm y1 (Anjaneyulu, 2003). Water levels in the lake fluctuate between 0.5 to 3.0 mþ MSL. During the dry season, the water level drops below 1.0 mþ MSL. During the monsoon season, the water levels rise considerably: this has resulted in frequent flooding of the agricultural land bordering the lake. A water level of 1.5 mþ MSL results in the flooding of about 15,000 ha and a water level of 3.0 mþ MSL in flooding of about 57,100 ha (Shivaji Rao, 2003). Another major change has been the reclamation of part of the lake into fish ponds and paddy fields (Table 1). Over the past 20 years, this reclamation increased at an alarming rate, from no reclamation at all in 1975 to 9191 ha in 2005 (Raju, 2006). These fish ponds have reduced the storage capacity in the lake and consequently increased the risk of flooding of the surrounding agricultural lands. The lake drains into the Bay of Bengal through the Upputeru River, a 60 km long, intricately meandering tidal river. The M16 straight cut was excavated in the 1970s in order to improve the discharge capacity of the river (Fig. 1). This short-cut reduced the length of the river from 62 to 42 km. The average width of the river is about 200 m. Its depth varies considerably over the season but, on average, it is around 3 m. The tidal range in the Bay of Bengal fluctuates between 0.9 and 1.5 m. Because of the low elevation and
Table 1 Use of Lake Kolleru in February 2001 as interpreted from remote sensing data (Nageswara Rao et al., 2004). Land use
Area
a
Fishponds with water (1050 ) Fishponds e dried up (38a) Paddy fields Lake area with dense weeds Lake area with sparse weeds Lake area under reclamation Total a
Number of fishponds.
[km2]
[%]
98.98 4.00 20.97 57.48 53.27 10.30
40 2 9 23 22 4
245.00
100
low discharge during the dry season, sea water intrusion occurs frequently. As a result, the salinity of the water in the southern part of the lake may increase up to 20 dS m1. 3.2. Model simulations The Lake Kolleru e Upputeru River ecosystem was modelled with Duflow. The contour map of Lake Kolleru and the cross and longitudinal sections of the Upputeru River were used to model the system (Sreenivas, 2006). The inflow from the upland catchment, the tidal range and the salinity of the seawater in the Gulf of Bengal were used as boundary conditions. The model was calibrated using measured water levels as there were no discharge measurements available. Due to lack of other data, only salinity was considered in the quality sub-model. No other pollutants like industrial or agricultural waste (pesticides and herbicides) were taken into account. Only seasonal changes in the salinity levels in the river and the lake were available, thus calibration of the daily variation of salinity levels could not be performed. Duflow was used to simulate water and salt movement in and between Kolleru Lake and Upputeru River, in particular: Changes in the water balance in Lake Kolleru, both quantitatively and qualitatively, as a result of land use changes in the upper catchment area and the surrounding agricultural lands in the Krishna and Godavari Deltas; Changes in the storage capacity in Kolleru Lake and the outflow to Upputeru River caused by the construction of embankments through the lake, the construction or dismantling of fishponds, paddy fields and other reclamation activities; The effect of past restoration measures, i.e. the closure and reopening of the M16 shortcut, on the water movement and salt wedge in the river and the resulting salinity levels in the lake. The effect of the restoration measures that were proposed by the stakeholders, i.e. the construction of a bypass channel to evacuate excess surface runoff from the upstream catchment area and/or the construction of a weir to regulate the inflow and outflow to the Upputeru River. Since its construction in the 1980’s, the M16 shortcut has been a source of conflicts: local communities that suffered from the increased salt-water intrusion made several attempts to close it again. In 2004, these attempts were stopped by order of the High Court of Andhra Pradesh (dated 29-03-2004) based on a petition signed by a farmers’ organization (Margadarshi Rythy Club, Apparopet) and the West Godavari Sub-District (the Akividu Mandal). Simulations show that about 90% of the annual flow goes through the M16 shortcut, increasing the salinity levels in the river and reducing the velocity in the old river mouth. This results in a more rapid sedimentation of the old river bed. The effects of dredging the river mouth were also simulated. When this section is dredged, peak discharges during the monsoon season will increase in the old river course and decrease in the short cut (Fig. 5). These higher discharges in the old river course will probably reduce the siltingup of the river mouth, but as the discharges during the dry season do not increase, the effect will be only temporary as the siltation is mainly caused by sand movement along the coast. Note that the daily fluctuation in the discharge is caused by the tidal influence and that in the dry season the daily discharges are partly negative, indicating salt water intrusion. The simulations also show that dredging has little influence on the salinity in the lake, but that the increased discharge will reduce sedimentation and salt concentrations in the downstream section of the river. The simulation of the proposed restoration measures show that the construction of a regulatory weir (height 3.5 m) will result in
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Fig. 5. Simulated discharges in the M16 straight cut and the old course of the river before (top graph) and after (lower graph) dredging the old river mouth to the same level as the M16 shortcut.
higher water levels in the lake and lower water levels in the river. Without the weir, water levels in the lake and in the river are almost the same (Fig. 6 top). After the construction of the weir, more water can be stored in the lake during the Kharif season, resulting in higher water levels in the Rabi season (Fig. 6 bottom). This increase in storage has a positive effect on the agriculture as more water becomes available for irrigation and the irrigation season can be extended. A negative effect is that the water levels in the Upputeru River will be lower in the dry season. This will increase salt water intrusion and the risk of salinisation in the downstream agricultural areas. 3.3. PLA workshops Stakeholders or their representatives, members of the Legislative Assembly and of the AP Parliament were invited for a one-day workshop organized at the campus of the SRKR Engineering College in Bhimavaram. The local press (newspapers, radio and television) was also invited. The location was selected because most stakeholders consider the College as an unbiased institution and would accept the campus as neutral territory. Nearly 150 stakeholders attended this workshop. Media coverage was extensive: interviews with team members were broadcasted on radio and television (both in English and the local language) and published in six local and one national newspaper. The meeting was chaired by an expert panel, which consisted of representatives of the SRKR Engineering College, ANGRAU, Alterra-ILRI, an ex-member of Parliament and a member of the legislative assembly. The workshop was split up into four sessions. During the breaks, there was ample time to demonstrate the model simulations, both on the computer and by means of posters, and to discuss these with the various stakeholders. In the first session, representatives of
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Fig. 6. Simulated water levels in the Kolleru Lake and Upputeru River: without outlet weir to regulate outflow from the lake into the Upputeru River (top graph) and with a 3.5 m high weir (lower graph).
eleven stakeholder's organizations presented their views on the problem analysis and the proposed interventions (Table 2). It was to be expected that their views and preferences would vary considerably. In the second session, the project team presented the results of the model simulations. The hydrological processes in the Kolleru-Upputeru ecosystem were highlighted and the effects of a number of past and proposed interventions were presented. By discussing the effects of past interventions, i.e. the closure and reopening of the M16 shortcut, stakeholders gained confidence in the model because the simulations matched their experiences and observations. The presentations and discussions clearly showed that isolated interventions only benefit one part of the stakeholders and have negative repercussions on others. In the first afternoon session, the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed interventions were discussed. The participants expressed the need for technically feasible, economically viable and (especially) socially acceptable interventions. They also stressed that the development of these interventions requires political wisdom and common sense and that they should be in accordance with the law. In the final session, a mutual understanding on the need for an integrated approach was achieved. This consensus proves to be an admirable achievement, considering the tensions between the various stakeholders and government organizations at the start of the project. Subsequently, several more meetings were organized to work out the details of an integrated study. In December 2006, in a follow-up two-day workshop at ANGRAU University, 20 representatives from local Universities and Colleges, Government agencies, NGOs and farmers discussed these proposals and agreed on the details for an integrated research programme. In this study the following aspects are addressed: sedimentology, ecosystem approach, biodiversity, near-shore ocean dynamics, socioeconomic aspects, community participation and hydrology. The
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Table 2 Stakeholders’ views on the main problems and suggested interventions in the Kolleru-Upputeru ecosystem. Organization/ representative of
Main problems
Suggested interventions
1. Villages around Lake Kolleru
Lack of irrigation water in dry season
2. Farmers bordering Lake Kolleru
Flooding of agricultural lands
3. Prawn farmers association
Declining fish catches
4. Kolleru Parirakshna Samithi (Nature conservation NGO) 5. Farmers of downstream reaches of Upputeru 6. Farmers of Kolleru outlet region
Weed growth, seawater intrusion, flooding of foreshore areas Salt water intrusion, lack of drinking water Flooding
Improve irrigation without construction of regulatory weir at outlet & compensation for lost land Clearing encroachments along the drains and canals and road culverts or even removal of roads Special economic zones for fishery, enforcement legislation and judiciary, alternative fisheries, compensation, waste water treatment Restoration into natural fresh water lake
7. Private land owners around Kolleru Lake
Demolition of agricultural (coconut trees) land, unjustified administrative action against aquaculture activities Enforcement of Supreme Court’s proceedings
8. Nallamalai Foundation (local NGO)
9. Farmers around Vuyyuru Sugar Factory 10. Irrigation Department 11. Kisan Morcha (local NGO for minority groups)
Pollution caused by industries and fish ponds Department has no administrative control, drainage maintenance, water hyacinth Lack of drinking water
proposal “Integrated Research Programme on Geo spatial technologies for the restoration of Kolleru lake ecosystem” was submitted to the Federal Government and was eventually approved in November 2008. 4. Discussion The challenges of the study were to match the implicit (or tacit) knowledge of the stakeholders with explicit scientific knowledge, to validate the problem analysis and the model simulations and to come to an integrated approach for the restoration of the KolleruUpputeru wetland ecosystem. To achieve these goals, a participatory modelling approach was developed. The advantage of this approach is that, without an expensive and time-consuming data collection program, shared vision building and actions upon emerging environmental issues could be initiated. Intervention became imperative because the tension in the area caused by frequent conflicts between stakeholder groups increased. The media were used to draw the attention of as many stakeholders as possible to the research activities around the hot problems of Lake Kolleru. Data obtained through the literature study, the stakeholder consultation and the quick reconnaissance survey was used to develop a hydrological model of the river and lake system. The tacit knowledge of the stakeholders helped to estimate the frequency and degree of flooding, the salt water intrusion and to verify data on livelihoods, etc. The model was calibrated using water levels collected during the reconnaissance survey. Simulated and actual water levels in the river accurately agreed. However, simulated water levels in the lake were relatively high, most likely because the lake is quite shallow. For validation, simulations of an alreadyimplemented intervention, i.e. the closing and (re)opening of the M16 shortcut, was matched with the stakeholders’ experiences. Next, the model was used to simulate the effects of proposed interventions as formulated by the stakeholders. The organization of the workshops proved helpful in overcoming potential conflicts between stakeholders, especially because: The organizers, the location of the workshop and the expert panel that chaired the meetings were considered to be unbiased by most stakeholders.
Removal of water hyacinths by farmers themselves Widening Upputeru River and removal of obstructions, no regulatory weir at the outlet Compensation, reconsider the 5mþ contour line
Maintenance of drains, no regulatory weir, stakeholders workshops, lake compartment, popular actions to claim land rights No regulatory weir, compensation Improved methods of weed control No regulatory weir, but diversion of Godavari water
Attendance of stakeholders was high because the study team had made a great effort to identify all stakeholders, among others, by seeking publicity to explain the objectives of the study and the participatory approach to the general public. In the first session, the representatives of the stakeholders had ample time to present their views and preferences and to reflect on others. In the second session, the presentations and discussions of model simulations of past interventions gave stakeholders confidence in the model. By discussing the simulations the stakeholders started to realise that interventions cannot necessarily satisfy all parties: each intervention produces advantages for some and disadvantages for others. Presence and coverage from the local press proved to be useful in calming down strained relations between stakeholders. The IAP2 Spectrum method of Public Participation (International Association for Public Participation, 2007) was used to asses the level of participation. The IAP2 spectrum recognizes five levels of public participation, ranging from level 1 (only informing the public) to level 5 (full decision-making in the hands of the public). In our case, the participation has elements of the three intermediate levels, i.e.: Level 2 “Consult”: during the problem analysis and reconnaissance survey, the stakeholder’s concerns and aspirations were used to make the SWOT-analysis; Level 3 “Involve”: the first workshop was used to obtain public feedback on analysis, alternatives and to obtain consensus on an integrated approach; Level 4 “Collaborate”: in a follow-up workshop the views and preferences of the stakeholders were used to elaborate the details of this integrated approach. The results support the hypothesis that shared vision building requires a principle joint understanding of causeeeffect relationships and a mutual agreement on plausibility of both input data assumptions as well as model results. In line with this concept, the consideration of tacit knowledge proved to be essential. This approach is also supported by the experiences obtained elsewhere,
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see for example Andersson et al. (2008), who also found that by involving stakeholders in a stepwise process, their confidence in model results increases and that they are more inclined to develop and share a common view, regarding both present conditions, goals and ways to reach these goals. The present study is not yet able to quantify advantages of the approach presented over a traditional effort to validate simulation models. Similarly this study is not yet able to quantify the reduction of uncertainty by integrating the stakeholder participation into the base line determination. However it has shown the principal practicability of such an approach and the potential impact on joint decision making and can provide a basis for further comparative studies. 5. Conclusions A participatory modelling study was conducted to gain a better understanding of the Kolleru Lake and Upputeru River ecosystem, to assess the effects of various restoration measures and to come to agreement with the stakeholders on the outlines of an integrated action plan. The challenge was to tackle the hydrological and social complexity, i.e. the large variety of hydrological functions, the many interests of different stakeholders and the lack of long-term data records. The study team developed a four-step participatory approach with the aim to match the implicit (or tacit) knowledge of the stakeholders with the explicit scientific knowledge. The main lessons from this study can be summarized as follows: Lack of long-term data records that may seriously limit the usefulness of simulation models can be complemented by linking the tacit (or location-specific) knowledge of the stakeholders to the explicit scientific knowledge. Discussing model simulations of past or existing interventions with stakeholders and matching the results with the stakeholder’s views and experiences proved to be a useful tool (i) to validate the model; (ii) to create mutual understanding of the complex problems in the area; (iii) to show that each intervention has its beneficiaries and victims, and; (iv) to achieve consensus for the need for an integrated approach. The level of confidence which stakeholders have in modelling results is not so much related to the level of detail but much more to their recognition of the (simulated) effects of the proposed restoration measures. The obtained results and observations support the following hypothesis: A situation in which ”Researchers know that model input is partly based on assumptions, and stakeholders understand that their own knowledge is an important contribution”, is more productive for environmental planning than a situation in which “Researchers exactly understand the model input, but stakeholders do not believe that their own knowledge has been taken seriously”. We recommend that future research in this area should focus on the reduction of quantitative uncertainties in simulation results by including tacit knowledge into the process of input data compilation and plausibility checks. However, further research should also quantify whether the presented approach, despite the uncertainties, will give the same results compared with a traditional model validation and scenario building process. Acknowledgement The Kolleru and Upputeru Estuary Restoration Study was conducted by Alterra-ILRI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands, the Undi Centre of Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University and S.R.K.R Engineering College, Bhimavaram, both from Andhra Pradesh, India. The project was jointly
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