View from Westminster - DeHavilland

The fifth in DeHavilland's UK/EU referendum series, this briefing looks at the positions of the key political players: both British parliamentarians and other European governments. The first part contains insights gained from interviews carried out by DeHavilland with leading MPs from both sides of the debate in the UK, particularly relevant given the launch this week of the Labour campaign to stay in the EU. The second gives a snapshot of the feeling in other European capitals, as David Cameron searches for allies ahead of December's crucial European Council summit.

View from Westminster For some, the law means the law only if it comes from Westminster. As the process of formal negotiations gets underway on the Continent, in the UK, campaigners on either side of the EU referendum debate have begun to marshal their arguments. The muted reception for Prime Minister David Cameron’s intentions set out in his letter to Donald Tusk demonstrated the degree of scepticism among MPs reflected in DeHavilland’s exclusive poll earlier this autumn. Both Conservative and Labour MPs appeared to be underwhelmed by what was laid on the table. In this section, DeHavilland’s UK team takes the temperature in Westminster in the run-up to the December European Council meeting. This week the Labour Party has officially launched its pro-EU campaign, with MP Phil Wilson writing for LabourList. He explained, “Our campaign will be distinctive from the cross-party campaign, because we will focus on the issues important to Labour supporters and voters, in particular economic growth, jobs and rights for workers, rights for consumers and security.” So far, 231 Labour MPs have signed up to the pro EU PLP Group, including party leader Jeremy Corbyn and the whole Shadow Cabinet.

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For Mr Cameron, achieving cross-party support will be integral to selling his final EU offer to the British public. He therefore cannot afford to ignore the Labour Party. One of its MPs recently declared that 210 out of its 232 parliamentarians were proEuropean, a stance vastly different to party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s perceived lukewarm attitude to remaining. We spoke to two of the party’s highest profile Europhiles, former Shadow Cabinet Ministers Chuka Umunna and Emma Reynolds, to get their take on how the debate was developing. Asked for her views on David Cameron’s demands, Ms Reynolds said she understood why the UK Government was seeking assurances such as the red card for national parliaments, but still felt the exercise was one of party politics, as opposed to national importance.

“This whole exercise has been driven from the beginning by David Cameron’s desire to manage his own party”, she said, adding that many Conservative MPs would never be satisfied with the demands. Ms Reynolds did concede more controversial areas, such as restricting EU migrants' access to benefits, were difficult, but emphasised her belief that the vast majority wanted to come to the UK to work and contribute. “I would not like to see us become a second class citizen in Europe”, she declared, urging the Conservative Government to consider its tone carefully when approaching treaty change.

Questioned over whether she would ever vote to leave, Ms Reynolds admitted the EU was not perfect, but added that reform was an “ongoing process”. Mr Umunna declared he found Cameron’s demands “reasonable and achievable”, but did not believe it would be “a walk in the party” to realise them. In particular, he felt the most difficult aim would be achieving reform of freedom of movement. “It is impossible to have the free movement of goods and services without the free movement of people”, the Streatham MP said, adding that it was important to review the context in which the policy operated.

Labour did not want to see the Conservatives roll back employment protections contained in the Social Chapter and Ms Reynolds praised Jeremy Corbyn for giving a commitment to campaign to keep the UK in the EU. “You could count the number of Labour eurosceptics on two hands these days [...] the vast majority of our members want to stay in”, Ms Reynolds declared. She warned left-wing eurosceptics to consider the impact on employment right if the UK left the EU, underlining the importance of reaching out to crucial groups of undecided voters, such as women. “The Out campaign cannot decide what Out looks like”, Ms Reynolds said, adding that leaving the EU would leave the country with less power and influence. Pressed over her vision of a reformed EU, the Wolverhampton MP said “The problems faced by the UK and families across the country did not stop at the white cliffs of Dover.” Ms Reynolds said Labour would run its own, distinctive, grassroots-based campaign to Remain in the UK, in contrast to the top-down structure of Better Together in the Scottish independence referendum.


Labour MP Chuka Umunna

He felt that David Cameron would be best striving to achieve reforms without necessitating treaty change, which would require the unanimous consent of all Member States. A protocol that came into effect whenever wider treaty revisions were discussed could be one way to go. Mr Umunna said EU citizens were just as proud of their national identity as the British were and therefore it would be right to clarify the intention behind the principle of evercloser union. “I don’t just see the case to remain as a fundamental economic argument; I see it as an emotional and patriotic one”, Mr Umunna

explained. He did not buy into a “defeatist narrative” of the UK getting “trampled” on in the EU when it sought to realise national aims. Mr Umunna said, “I do not want to see the UK diminished on the world stage”. Painting his vision of Britain’s membership of the EU, he said, “My vision is based on the UK creating big, world-beating companies [...] that provide lots of jobs and use the home market of the EU to do that.” The UK had to come to terms with the fact that it had moved away from its colonial past and was now competing in a smarter, more agile world. On the role of big business in the evolving referendum, Mr Umunna felt that there had been a “concerted effort” by Vote Leave to prevent the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) from participating in the debate. It was “distasteful” and “undemocratic” to attempt to exclude the CBI, he said. Like Ms Reynolds, Mr Umunna felt that the most authoritative voices in the Remain campaign would come from bottom-up activities, including the leaders of small businesses. On his own party’s European stance, he pointed out Labour’s official position was to campaign to remain in the EU. Interestingly, Mr Umunna pointed out that his Streatham constituency was one of the top ten most pro-EU parliamentary seats in the country. Lastly, DeHavilland asked Mr Umunna if his felt he would campaign with Jeremy Corbyn, given he had left the Shadow Cabinet over the latter’s perceived failure to give assurances over the referendum campaign. The answer from Mr Umunna was an unequivocal “yes”.


While the various factions of the leave campaign are arguably yet to develop a unified positive narrative for leaving the European Union, some common themes and ideas are beginning to emerge amongst them. We spoke to eurosceptic Labour MP Graham Stringer, and observed a meeting of the Bruges Group where Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins and Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash were speaking, to further understand the arguments for leaving the EU and ask about the challenges ahead. Responding to a question on likelihood of Mr Cameron successfully renegotiating Britain’s membership of the European Union, Mr Stringer said that the areas the Government are looking at require “meaningful treaty change,” and explained that the Government was instead trying to find a “PR position” to appear successful. When asked whether there were any circumstances under which he would change his mind, Mr Stringer commented that the “EU would have to look very different to the way that it does now.” The conservation of British sovereignty is a key issue for many in the leave campaign, and Mr Stringer proved no exception: “Britain would have to be given control over its own laws,” he said. The question of whether 16 and 17 year old should be allowed to vote has arisen in both the House of Commons and Lords during the passage of the European Union Referendum Bill. With polls showing a tight race, engaging with younger voters will be an important part of both campaigns. Mr Stringer said that younger voters had to be listened to, and presented with a positive vision of what Britain would look like outside of the EU.

When prompted on the thoughts of the left leaning campaign and commercial organisations, Mr Stringer claimed there were important debates going on in trade union branches, but suggested that the leave position had lost support in recent years. Turning to business, Mr Stringer argued that there was hostility towards the EU in the small business community. He also suggested that the business voice had come from large corporations capable of influencing regulation. During his remarks to a meeting of the Bruges Group, Sir Bill Cash was clear to explain the referendum was about the European Union and not Europe. Both Sir Bill and Mr Hopkins agreed that the key question was “Who governs?” Sir Bill advised the Bruges Group that it must stick to dispassionate and reasoned arguments if it was going to convince the 25 per cent of undecided voters to leave the EU. For Sir Bill, those reasoned arguments centred on British democracy and the right to selfdetermination. He was not convinced that Mr Cameron could bring about a fundamental change to Britain’s relationship with the EU.

Eurozone and argued that “the single market does not work.” Citing the Greek debt crisis, he claimed that the centralisation of monetary policy had prevented Member States from taking action to ensure the stability of their currency.

Allies on the continent? The European Council summit on the 17th of December will be crucial – according the original plan, this was when the EU would sign off on the UK's demands. Mr Cameron must make progress in order to hold the early referendum that he is seeking. In light of this, we have taken a glance at every other EU Member State individually, to see where the diplomatic effort will need to be focused. The map below gives a (subjective) indication of where Mr Cameron may find support, with green indicating an ally, yellow showing countries with a measure of ambivalence about the negotiations, and red pointing out likely obstacles.

Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash

While Mr Hopkins agreed with the sentiment of Sir Bill’s remarks, his criticism of the EU focused on policy specifics. He was perhaps most concerned with the instability of the


Big Players | Allies | On the Fence Potentially Awkward

As with any European debate, the position of Germany will be crucial, possibly decisive. Indications suggest that British PM David Cameron might have an ally in Berlin, which is loath to see Brexit. This can be put down to Chancellor Angela Merkel's natural caution, certain ideological similarities between the countries, or the fact that Germany has always been reluctant to take the lead role in the Union, and sees no upside in the departure of another powerful Member State. An EU without the UK would also leave France as the only major military power. Ms Merkel, whose grip on Germany's politics may be weakening, is notoriously risk-averse, and the prospect of Brexit, with all of the disruption this would entail, does not appeal. In an address to the UK Parliament in 2014 she underlined that "we need a strong United Kingdom with a strong voice inside the European Union", while warning against fundamental reforms to the bloc. Ms Merkel's allies agree - Norbert Rottgen, the chairman of the German Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee, recently suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin could support the anti-EU campaign in the UK in order to weaken the EU. Meanwhile German President Joachim Gauck was clear in his statement that "the European Union needs Britain". Influential Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble sees the UK as an economic ally, and believes that Brexit would be a "disaster". Meanwhile the head of the centre-right EPP group in the European Parliament Manfred Weber says that British demands can be an opportunity rather than a problem. The German opposition Social Democrats are a little more circumspect on the issue, with EP President Martin Schulz, a potential candidate for Chancellor, agreeing that the UK is a


crucial part of the EU, but repeatedly warning that the fundamental values of the EU cannot be compromised. Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel went further, saying that "Our idea for Europe is quite the opposite of the idea of Mr Cameron", also mooting the idea of a 'two-speed Europe' led by Germany and France If Germany is the 'good cop' in the UK's renegotiations with the rest of Europe, then France looks set to be the bad cop, in a reversal of the roles played in the Greek crisis. Historically viewing the cross-channel relationship as more of a rivalry than an alliance, France can see more upsides to Brexit than can its German neighbour, and is less sympathetic to British complaints. President François Hollande wants the UK to remain in the EU, but is notably less enthusiastic than some, stating that "we believe it is both in the interest of Europe and that of the UK to remain together, but we always must respect people's [wishes]". The French economy minister Emmanuel Macron has taken a tough stance on the issue, saying that the UK should not be allowed a "Europe a la carte". Veteran Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius agrees, arguing that "They joined a football club and you can't say in the middle of the match, 'Well, now we're going to play rugby'. It's one or the other". He has said that "as much as we support improving the union, we cannot agree to its dismemberment". As the de facto leader of the eastern European Member States, Poland's opinion is increasingly important in any EU debate, and this one is no different. Former Polish PM Donald Tusk is also now the man who chairs the European Council summits, and could make or break Cameron's diplomatic efforts.

The recent Polish elections have made everything more unpredictable, with the return to power of the right-wing Law and Justice party. They are more anti-immigration, more Eurosceptic, and more nationalist than their predecessors, and in the European Parliament their MEPs sit with David Cameron's conservatives. But while the interests of the UK and Poland are aligned in many ways, British politicians have alienated a potential ally to some extent by focusing on the issue of eastern European migrants. This has led to several Polish politicians underlining that key EU values (freedom of movement) are totally nonnegotiable.

It is no coincidence that The Hague was the first stop on David Cameron's tour of European capitals before June's European Council. The UK has long considered the Netherlands an ally, and the two have strikingly similar views on issues such as subsidiarity and trade. It is telling too that Dutch Commissioner Frans Timmermans is leading negotiations for the Commission. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said in no uncertain terms that Brexit would be a disaster, but also believes that it is very unlikely to happen. "I don't believe you should have unique individual arrangements between individual countries and the EU, but we have to have this debate on subsidiarity", he said, and his views on Europe are perhaps more closely aligned with the British government that those of any other. It is clear how he sees his role – "The role of the Netherlands is to make sure that the UK stays onboard". Denmark prizes its looser relationship with the EU as much as does the UK, and is a natural ally for Cameron. The recent election of a conservative government led by


Lars Løkke Rasmussen has provided further support for the UK's position. Before the vote, Rasmussen's “Right block” issued a joint statement saying they would back Britain’s more Eurosceptic approach to the EU, and following the election, the new PM stated that "We will stand behind Great Britain and like-minded nations’ efforts to ensure that the EU doesn’t turn into a social union". "The British situation could be a stepping stone to finding a better solution and that would be in the core Danish interest for two reasons: both to keep Britain in the EU and to protect our social profile," Rasmussen said. The country likely to be most affected by a Brexit, Ireland has a strong interest in keeping its neighbour in the EU. Prime Minister Enda Kenny gave a boost to Cameron's bid to renegotiate Britain's membership by promising to be as "supportive and constructive" as possible. "It is critically important that Britain stays a central and leading player in the European Union of the future." European Affairs Minister Dara Murphy noted that contingency planning for Brexit had begun though: "it would be remiss of us given the possibility that our largest trading partner may be exiting the European Union, that is something we, of course are looking at" Finland also has a similar outlook on the EU as the UK, in terms of competitiveness and national sovereignty. It is also growing increasingly sceptical of Eurozone membership, with a recent petition forcing the issue onto the parliamentary agenda. Finally, the foreign minister is Timo Soini of the Finns, one of the few parties in David Cameron's political group, and who has called the referendum "absolutely a great idea".

Finland is also one of the few countries that may be amenable to restrictions on the freedom of movement, although don't expect it to actively intervene in the debate.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have one major preoccupation – Russia – and see the EU as a bulwark against their eastern neighbour. Any move that weakens the bloc is not viewed positively in the Baltic capitals, and there is not a lot of sympathy for David Cameron's demands. All are keen for the UK to remain, but there is a certain level of frustration. There are superficial political similarities between the UK and Baltic states, and Estonian PM Taavi Rõivas recently stated "we are very close allies in both NATO and the European Union". But on issues such as European integration and the single currency, there is a significant difference in thinking. As is the case for most of the southern European Member States, Italy is not impressed by British exceptionalism. Reformist PM Matteo Renzi is however sympathetic to David Cameron's ultimate aims of a more efficient EU. On his first visit to London as PM last year, Matteo Renzi echoed the position of France that altering EU rules to tackle British complaints was not a priority. On a personal level he is more sympathetic to the British position than Francois Hollande though – underlining that "it is priority the UK can continue to work inside the EU because an EU without the UK is impossible". He also hopes to use the process of EU negotiation to push some of his own reforms, stating that "it will be a good process".


With no major Eurosceptic movement of their own, Spain and Portugal both find the UK position on EU membership somewhat hard to explain. Spain is also more preoccupied by the situation in Greece and its own internal separatist movements, while Portugal also has its own economic problems. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has kept mostly to general statements – "Spain will be constructive when trying to help these plans go forward and the UK continuing in the EU", but also underlined that free movement is non-negotiable. Portugal has just gone through a turbulent election, but is likely to end up in a similar position. The UK and Portugal are old allies however, and David Cameron would like to think he can count on some support. Austria is an interesting case – it has a very strong domestic Eurosceptic presence, with anti-EU petitions garnering significant support this year. This means that it is a natural ally for the UK in some areas, and the pro-EU governing party would not be happy to see the UK leave the bloc. The Czech Republic and Slovakia, who make up the Visegrad group along with Poland and Hungary, are currently pre-occupied with the refugee crisis, with both governments among the most vocal on the issue of migration. Both are broadly supportive of the UK, in particular on issues of subsidiarity, but neither can be expected to bend over backwards to help David Cameron's renegotiations. Although one of the smallest Member States, Luxembourg is nonetheless influential, and currently holds the rotating Presidency of the Council. Indeed one of the first statements from Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn was on Brexit. He stated that the EU's fundamental principles, such as freedom

of movement, should not be called into question, and warned against looking for an "à la carte" Europe. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is also a former Prime Minister of Luxembourg. He this summer declared himself confident that the UK would never vote to leave the EU, stating that "Brexit is not a question which arises, it’s not desired by the British. Cameron wants to dock his country permanently to Europe". Tiny Malta and Cyprus both have strong historic links to the UK, and would certainly be nervous about the prospect of Brexit. Cypriot President Anastasiades recently “expressed his support for the UK’s reform agenda, in particular the emphasis on greater competitiveness and a stronger role for national Parliaments”. Malta could be significant as it will hold the Presidency of the Council for the first half of 2017, forcing it to play a relatively neutral role if the question has not been settled by then. David Cameron would certainly have counted the former Swedish government as an ally – he and ex-PM Fredrik Reinfeldt are good friends. The current centreleft administration however is unlikely to be as helpful, although the country is broadly on board with most of the UK's proposals. As it does not use the single currency, protection for Eurozone 'outs' is an attractive prospect, but Sweden may have ideological problems with any restriction on the freedom of movement. Having only joined the EU in 2013, Croatia is unlikely to be a vocal participant in the debate. Its Balkan neighbour Slovenia also has no strong position on any aspect of the issue, making vague statements about the importance of the UK remaining in the EU.


Probably the least interested in Brexit of all Member States is Greece, for which the issue must seem trivial in comparison to the country's own issues.

Unlike his Dutch counterpart, Belgian PM Charles Michel refuses to rule out the possibility that the UK may leave the EU. He has also been blunt in turning down some of Cameron's demands: "For Belgium there are red lines: the principles of free movement and non-discrimination between EU citizens are inviolable. Neither can there be any veto given to national parliaments - that would be the end of the European Union." Romania and Bulgaria are two of the countries most invested in EU freedom of movement, and they have not appreciated being the target of much anti-EU rhetoric in the UK. As with many other Member States governments, they can both see merits in greater powers for national parliaments, and in boosting EU competitiveness, but any move against intraEU migration would be a deal-breaker. Hungary, under the fiercely antiimmigration Viktor Orban, is a wildcard in the debate. The Hungarian President is widely mistrusted by his European colleagues, and although David Cameron has found himself on several occasions on the same side of the debate, an alliance with Mr Orban may be more trouble than it's worth.

Timeline For details of all key dates in the run-up to the referendum, see DeHavilland's timeline, which will be continuously updated as the situation evolves. Bookmark this link to stay on top of events.

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