Establishing a Framework to Evaluate the Effect of Energy ... - MDPI

sustainability Article

Establishing a Framework to Evaluate the Effect of Energy Countermeasures Tackling Climate Change and Air Pollution: The Example of China Jiehui Yuan 1,2 1 2

*

ID

, Xunmin Ou 1,2, *

ID

and Gehua Wang 1

Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China; [email protected] or [email protected] (J.Y.); [email protected] (G.W.) China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-6277-2758

Received: 8 July 2017; Accepted: 29 August 2017; Published: 11 September 2017

Abstract: Due to the large-scale utilization of high-carbon fossil energy, considerable amounts of critical air pollutants (CAPs) and greenhouse gas (GHG) have been emitted, which has led to increasingly serious global climate change and local air pollution problems. Given that climate change and air pollution have the same source, energy systems, the rational development and use of energy for collaborative governance should be emphasized to solve these problems in parallel. This paper presents a multi-dimensional, multi-perspective and achievable analysis framework to quantitatively evaluate the emission reduction effects of energy countermeasures aimed at tackling climate change and governing air pollution in support of sustainable development. As a typical developing country pursuing sustainable development, China is taken as an example to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework to assess the emission reduction effects of energy countermeasures issued for tackling climate change and governing air pollution on CAPs and GHG. The results indicate that the key energy actions proposed in this paper would result in emission reductions of approximately 6 million tons (Mt) of CAPs and 575 Mt of GHG in 2016. By 2020 and 2030, emission reductions of 12 Mt of CAPs and 1094 Mt of GHG and of 21 Mt of CAPs and 1975 Mt of GHG, respectively, will be achieved. The proposed framework can effectively help China identify the emissions reduction effect of a given energy countermeasure and support the development of policy describing the next steps for tackling climate change and haze pollution. The proposed framework in this paper is also beneficial for countries similar to China in their efforts to simultaneously address climate change and improve air quality. Keywords: sustainable development; climate change; air pollution; collaborative governance; energy countermeasure; China

1. Introduction As the population of the world increases and the economy of the world prospers, and especially as developing countries advance, energy needs have increased significantly. Between 1971 and 2015, the global total primary energy consumption increased significantly by a factor of almost 2.6 [1,2]. The share of high-carbon fossil energy sources, such as coal and oil, is gradually decreasing, while other relatively low-carbon energy sources grow rapidly, but the former still dominates the world total primary energy consumption, accounting for more than 60% [2–4]. Due to the heavy utilization of fossil energy, high-carbon energy structures and the number of ways in which energy is used, enormous quantities of greenhouse gas (GHG) and critical air pollutants (CAPs) have been released. Energy-related GHG emissions accounted for the largest share of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, approximately 68%, and directly contribute to climate change [4,5]. Although coal represented Sustainability 2017, 9, 1555; doi:10.3390/su9091555

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approximately 29.2% of the world total primary energy consumption in 2015, coal accounted for approximately 46% of the global CO2 emissions, representing the largest share of GHG emissions due to its heavy carbon content per unit of energy released [5–7]. Energy utilization is an important source of large quantities of directly emitted hazardous air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM, PM2.5 specifically) and sulfur dioxide (SO2 ), and energy use was responsible for approximately 85% and almost 99% of the of global emissions of each of these pollutants, respectively, in 2015 [7,8]. As large quantities of GHG, predominantly CO2 , and CAPs have been released, increasingly serious climate change and air pollution (haze pollution especially) problems have arisen. For the past few decades, changes in climate have caused various impacts on natural and human systems on almost all continents and across the oceans [4,9–11]. Climate change is disrupting national economies and affecting lives, costing people, communities and countries dearly today and even more tomorrow. Simultaneously, in recent decades, air pollution has produced significantly adverse impacts on human health and the environment (as listed in Appendix A Table A1) [7–9,12]. In particular, many areas have suffered from serious haze disasters, such as the Donora smog event of 1948, the Great Smog of London in 1952, and the severe haze event in Beijing in 2013. These events greatly affect daily life, human health and can even cause many deaths [13–15]. Due to the increasing appeal of a high standard of living and the urgent duty of countries to pursue the sustainable development of the economy, society, and environment, actively addressing climate change and air pollution are necessary actions [9,16–18]. Given that climate change and air pollution have the same source, methods to address these problems should focus on the rational development and utilization of energy for collaborative governance, which can generate environmental benefits [19–21]. As the world actively works to address the risks of climate change and air pollution, there is growing concern about initiating rational energy countermeasures that achieve environmental objectives without undermining the growth of the global economy and the aspiration for a better quality of life for all. Numerous studies have been conducted to analyze the links between energy, climate change and air pollution and to assess the synergies between addressing climate change and air pollution [22–24]. Apsimon et al. [22] examines the interactions between strategies designed to improve air quality and those addressing climate change, analyses the benefits of combined strategies with greater attention to the overall environmental impacts, and focuses on finding “win–win” solutions for Europe. Another study conducted by Zeng et al. [23] aimed to design a co-control plan using a linear programming method for local air pollutants and CO2 reduction. The case study in Urumqi, a city in China, showed that technical reduction measures, such as energy recycling, as well as energy efficiency improvements and resource recycling measures have been shown to be control options that contribute to both reductions in local air pollutants and CO2 . As demonstrated by Maione et al. [24], coordinated actions that take into account air quality-climate linkages examined from a policy perspective are required based on the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) model to achieve win–win scenarios. Most previous studies have investigated the co-benefits, including environmental benefits and health benefits, of addressing climate change and air pollution in parallel using simulation models, such as the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model and the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse) model based on scenario settings. He et al. [25] adopted an energy projection model, an emission estimation model, an air quality simulation model and a health benefit evaluation model for assessing the co-benefits achieved under different energy policies in China by 2030. In another study, Xie et al. [26] evaluated the synergies of climate change and air pollution in parallel using a LEAP model based on scenario simulations of energy consumption in Beijing. To analyze the potential and cost to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 ◦ C global temperature change target relative to pre-industrial levels, Hanaoka et al. [27] used a bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse (Global), based on emission constraint scenarios and carbon tax scenarios. From an international perspective, there is a gap in the knowledge regarding establishing a simple and practical analytical framework focusing on quantitatively evaluating the effect of specific energy countermeasures aimed at tackling climate change and air pollution based on the characteristics

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of the existing energy structure. The current study places emphasis on establishing a multi-dimensional, the existing energy structure. The current study places emphasis on establishing a multi-perspective and achievable framework for the quantitative evaluation of energy countermeasures multi-dimensional, multi-perspective and achievable framework for the quantitative evaluation of that intend to achieve the reduction of GHG and CAPs emissions for the sustainable development of energy countermeasures that intend to achieve the reduction of GHG and CAPs emissions for the thesustainable world, especially for developing countries facing these challenges. development of the world, especially for developing countries facing these challenges. The goal of this study was to provide an aid in planning energy-relatedcountermeasures countermeasures aimed The goal of this study was to provide an aid in planning energy-related aimed at at developing change and andair airpollution pollutionwhile whileguaranteeing guaranteeing developinga acoordinated coordinatedresponse response to to climate climate change thethe sustainable development of the economy and society. This article is structured as follows. Section sustainable development of the economy and society. This article is structured as follows. Section 2 2 presents a background and GHG GHG and andCAP CAPemissions emissionsininChina. China. Section presents a backgroundon onenergy energyconsumption, consumption, and Section 3 3 proposes a detailed theeffects effectsofofenergy energycountermeasures countermeasures proposes a detailedanalytical analyticalframework framework for evaluating evaluating the on on simultaneously Section4,4,the theproposed proposed analytical simultaneouslytackling tacklingclimate climate change change and and air pollution. pollution. InInSection analytical framework usedtotoevaluate evaluateaatypical typical case case study. Section countries similar to to framework is isused Section55presents presentslessons lessonsfor for countries similar China. The paperends endswith withconcluding concluding remarks remarks for decision-making. China. The paper decision-making. Backgroundon onEnergy EnergyConsumption, Consumption, GHG and 2. 2. Background and CAP CAPEmissions EmissionsininChina China

2.1.2.1. Energy Consumption Energy ConsumptionininChina China Over the past few decades,increased increasedenergy energyconsumption consumptionhas hasresulted resulted from from the the development development of Over the past few decades, the global economy. Based onpurchasing the purchasing power parity valuation of economies’ GDPIs, theofglobal economy. Based on the power parity valuation of economies’ GDPIs, thethe GDP GDPof shares of emerging and developing economies in terms of aggregate GDP50.4% was 50.4% shares emerging marketsmarkets and developing economies in terms of aggregate GDP was in 2013, in 2013, that exceeding that of advanced[28]. economies the rapid economicindevelopment in exceeding of advanced economies With the[28]. rapidWith economic development emerging markets emerging markets and developing economies represented by China and India, more energy and developing economies represented by China and India, more energy resources (high-carbon fossil resources (high-carbon fossil energy beChina consumed. For example, in 2015, energy especially) will be consumed. Forespecially) example, inwill 2015, consumed approximately 3100China Million consumed approximately 3100 Million tons oil equivalent (Mtoe) of energy resources, dominated by tons oil equivalent (Mtoe) of energy resources, dominated by coal and oil (see Figure 1) [2,29,30], coal and oil (see Figure 1) [2,29,30], accounting for more than one fifth of the total global energy accounting for more than one fifth of the total global energy consumption. Moreover, developing consumption. Moreover, developing countries, represented by China and India, are estimated to countries, represented by China and India, are estimated to account for the most growth in the world account for the most growth in the world total energy consumption in the future [2,6]. total energy consumption in the future [2,6]. Coal

Oil

Clean energy

3600

75.0%

3000

60.0%

2400

45.0%

1800 30.0%

1200

15.0%

600

0.0%

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Share of energy consumption

Primary energy consumption (Mote)

Total energy

Year Figure 1. Shares of primary energy consumption in China in 2006–2015. Note: Clean energy includes Figure 1. Shares of primary energy consumption in China in 2006–2015. Note: Clean energy includes nature gas, nuclear energy, hydroelectricity and renewables. Source: based on [2,29,30]. nature gas, nuclear energy, hydroelectricity and renewables. Source: based on [2,29,30].

2.2.2.2. GHG Emissions GHG EmissionsininChina China The energy and social socialprogress progressbut butisisalso alsothe the largest source The energysector sectorisisan anengine engine of of economic economic and largest source of of GHG and from the thecombustion combustionofofhigh-carbon high-carbon fossil GHG andCAPs CAPsresulting resultingfrom fromhuman human activity, activity, mainly mainly from fossil fuels. GHG quality has hasdeteriorated deterioratedwhile whilethe the economy grown fuels. GHGemissions emissionshave haveincreased increased and and air air quality economy hashas grown continuously. energy-relatedGHG GHGisisemitted emittedinindeveloped developed countries, continuously.Though Though aa large large amount amount of energy-related countries, GHG emissions are also heavily GHG emissions are also heavilyconcentrated concentratedinindeveloping developingcountries countries [7]. [7]. Moreover, Moreover, the the increases increases in in GHG emissions in developing many developing countries have been have volumetrically GHG emissions in many countries have been rapid andrapid have and volumetrically outweighed the declines seen in number ofcountries. developed As countries. Asdeveloping a typical developing theoutweighed declines seen in a number of adeveloped a typical country, country, China has

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Energy-related CO2 Emissions (Million tons of CO2 )

China has played an important role in emitting CO2, a main GHG. In 2015, China emitted approximately 9500 Million (Mt) CO 2 eq., with an annual increase of 3.6% over the past decade played an important role intons emitting CO 2 , a main GHG. In 2015, China emitted approximately (shown in Figure 2) [2,6,30]. The share of the emissions of of China to global CO2 emissions 9500 Million tons (Mt) CO2 eq., with an annual increase 3.6%relative over the past decade (shown in increased to almost 28.4% in 2015, giving China the status of one of the world’s most to Figure 2) [2,6,30]. The share of the emissions of China relative to global CO2 emissions increased carbon-intensive economies. almost 28.4% in 2015, giving China the status of one of the world’s most carbon-intensive economies. 12000

40.0%

10000

30.0%

8000 6000

20.0%

4000

10.0%

2000 0

0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year China

China's share of total world

Figure 2. China’s energy-related CO2 emissions from 2006 to 2015. Source: based on [2,6,30]. Figure 2. China’s energy-related CO2 emissions from 2006 to 2015. Source: based on [2,6,30].

Energy-related PM2.5 emissions （Mt）

2.3. CAP Emissions in China 2.3. CAP Emissions in China Accompanying economic development and energy consumption, three key air pollutants, SO2 , Accompanying economic development and energy consumption, three key air pollutants, SO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx ) and PM (PM2.5 specifically), are emitted. SO2 and NO2 are precursors to the nitrogen oxides (NOx) and PM (PM2.5 specifically), are emitted. SO2 and NO2 are precursors to the formation of secondary PM. These are the most damaging of the air pollutants derived from energy formation of secondary PM. These are the most damaging of the air pollutants derived from energy activities. InIn 2015, the energy sector was responsible forfor over 8080 MtMt of of SOSO and 107 Mt of NOx 2 emissions activities. 2015, the energy sector was responsible over 2 emissions and 107 Mt of emissions, mostly from industry, power and the transport sector in developing countries Emissions NOx emissions, mostly from industry, power and the transport sector in developing [7]. countries [7]. of PM heavily concentrated in developing countries represented by China than many other 2.5 are more Emissions of PM 2.5 are more heavily concentrated in developing countries represented by China than major energy-related air pollutants.airAspollutants. illustratedAs inillustrated Figure 3, in approximately many other major energy-related in 2015, FigureChina 3, in emitted 2015, China emitted 9 approximately Mt of PM2.5 , a 9main pollutant impacting air quality, which accounted for approximately 27.3% Mt of PM2.5, a main pollutant impacting air quality, which accounted for of global emissions.27.3% As in of many other developing the PM in China is 2.5 high, approximately global emissions. As countries, in many other developing countries, the PM 2.5 concentration with an annual median 59 µg/m [12]. Large parts of the59population manyparts citiesofand concentration in Chinaconcentration is high, with an annual3 median concentration µg/m3 [12].inLarge the population manyofcities and beyond livenot with a levelwith of air quality does not beyond live with in a level air quality that does comply the WHOthat guideline forcomply averagewith annual the guideline[12,31]. for average annual PM 2.5 concentrations [12,31]. Air pollution represents PM concentrations Air pollution represents the biggest environmental risk to health. Inthe 2012, 2.5 WHO biggest riskwas to health. In of 2012, one out of everyconditions nine deaths wasThe the shares result of of deaths air one out ofenvironmental every nine deaths the result air pollution-related [7,12]. pollution-related conditions [7,12].are The shares deaths attributable air burden pollution 2012 due are to attributable to air pollution in 2012 shown in of Appendix B Figure A1.toThe of in disease shown in Appendix B Figure A1. The burden of disease due to air pollution is heavily skewed air pollution is heavily skewed towards Africa and Asia (China and India, in particular), and the air towardsdisease Africa incidence and Asia (China India, accounts in particular), and the air pollution disease incidence in pollution in theseand countries for approximately 80% of the global total [7,32,33]. these countries accounts for approximately of the of global [7,32,33]. Accordingly, the energy Accordingly, the energy sector must be at the80% forefront any total strategy to improve air quality, and such Sustainability 9, 1555 sector must2017, be at the forefront of any strategy to improve air quality, and such considerations5 of are23 considerations are indeed increasingly motivating policymaking in many countries. indeed increasingly motivating policymaking in many countries. 10 8 6 4 2 0

Figure 3. Energy-related PM 2.5 emissions by region, 2015. Source: based on [7]. Figure 3. Energy-related PM2.5 emissions by region, 2015. Source: based on [7].

3. The Development of a Conceptual Framework 3.1. Introducing an Analytical Framework for Effect Evaluation Given the status of the energy sector, increasing attention is devoted to an energy transition

Ene

2 0

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Figure 3. Energy-related PM2.5 emissions by region, 2015. Source: based on [7].

3. The Development of a Conceptual Framework

3. The Development of a Conceptual Framework

3.1. Introducing an Analytical Framework for Effect Evaluation 3.1. Introducing an Analytical Framework for Effect Evaluation

Given the status of the energy sector, increasing attention is devoted to an energy transition Given the status of the energy sector, increasing attention is devoted to an energy transition focusing on reducing high-pollution energy consumption andand increasing clean andand low-carbon energy focusing on reducing high-pollution energy consumption increasing clean low-carbon use toenergy reduce GHG and CAPs emissions. Based on identifying the characteristics of the existing use to reduce GHG and CAPs emissions. Based on identifying the characteristics of the energy consumption of developing countries countries and reviewing the experiences of developed countries existing energy consumption of developing and reviewing the experiences of developed in addressing energy transition [34–36], achieving an energy transition mainly relies on countries in addressing energychallenges transition challenges [34–36], achieving an energy transition mainly relies on solutions and measures in two ways. First, improving energy efficiency reduces the solutions and measures in two ways. First, improving energy efficiency reduces the consumption consumption of energy, especially of high-pollution energy. Second, developing clean and of energy, especially of high-pollution energy. Second, developing clean and low-carbon energy to low-carbon energy energy to replace high-pollution energy optimizes the energy structure. suitable Aiming energy to replace high-pollution optimizes the energy structure. Aiming to investigate investigate suitable energy countermeasures, multi-dimensional, multi-perspective, practical and countermeasures, multi-dimensional, multi-perspective, practical and measurable analysis framework measurable analysis framework is established to identify the effects of these countermeasures is established to identify the effects of these countermeasures accordingly, as displayed in Figure 4. accordingly, as displayed in Figure 4. In this study, GHG only includes CO2, and CAPs include SO2, In this study, GHG only includes CO2 , and CAPs include SO2 , NOx and PM2.5 . NO x and PM2.5.

Figure 4. Framework for emission reduction effect analysis of energy countermeasures to tackle Figure 4. Framework for emission reduction effect analysis of energy countermeasures to tackle climate climate change and air pollution. change and air pollution.

3.1.1. Promoting the Clean and Efficient Use of Coal

3.1.1. Promoting the Clean and Efficient Use of Coal

Burning coal is the primary source of environmental pollution from energy use. The highest use

Burning coal is the environmental pollution energy use. highest of coal resources is inprimary coal-firedsource power of plants and coal-fired industrialfrom boilers, which are The the two use of coal resources is in coal-fired power plants and coal-fired industrial boilers, which are the two main emission sources of GHG and CAPs [36–38]. In China, CO2 , SO2 , NOx and PM2.5 emissions from coal use account for 80%, 93%, 70% and 65% of total energy-related emissions, respectively [39]. Currently, most of the power in China comes from coal-based electricity generation (more than 75%), approximately 6107 TWh in 2015 (ranking first in the world). The power generation efficiency of coal is approximately 38% on average, which is low relative to international levels, approximately 43% [1,40,41]. As a primary heat supply for industries in China, the thermal efficiency of coal-fired industrial boilers is also relatively low compared to international levels, an average of approximately 60–65% [38,42,43], as presented in Table 1. Given the endowment of this resource, coal-fired power plants and coal-fired industrial boilers will still be important components of the energy supply for a long time to come [44,45]. However, the utilization efficiency of coal is relatively low. The lack of energy efficiency in existing coal-fired power plants and coal-fired industrial boilers has resulted in large amounts of waste and pollutant emissions [46,47]. To quickly achieve energy savings and emission reduction, actively promoting and implementing the clean and efficient use of coal to increase energy efficiency is necessary.

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Table 1. The operational heat efficiency of coal-fired industrial boilers in China. Capacity (MW)

Thermal Efficiency (%)

14.5

55–60 60–65 65–70 70–75 >85

Note: MW is megawatt. Source: based on [38,42,43].

3.1.2. Increasing the Use of Natural Gas to Replace Coal Due to a higher calorific value and lower carbon content, natural gas (NG) is a cleaner and more efficient energy source than other fossil fuels. With the same energy consumption, the quantity of pollutants emitted from NG combustion is much lower than that of other typical fossil fuels such as coal and oil, as shown in Table 2 [48,49]. If NG were to replace coal, not only would the energy consumed and pollutant emissions be reduced but other benefits would also be seen, such as reducing the time devoted to housework and the promotion of health and convenience (presented in Table 3) [48]. Although renewable energy resources are widely recognized as the most efficient and effective solutions to sustainable development, progress in developing these solutions has been slow due to technology and cost issues as well as other risks [50,51]. Achieving a transition from the current era, which is dominated by high-carbon fossil fuels, to a green and low-carbon future will be a long-term project. NG has remarkable advantages, and increasing its use as a transitional energy solution to help bridge this gap is one realistic option [52–54]. As stated previously, the energy mix of many countries, including China, is dominated by coal, and switching coal with gas has great potential to promote energy savings and emission reduction. Table 2. A comparison of combustion emissions released by typical fossil fuels.

Air Pollutant CO2 Nitrous oxides (NOx ) Carbon monoxide (CO) Sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) Particulates (PM)

Combusted Source NG

Oil

Coal

1 1 1 1 1

1.4 4.9 0.8 1870.0 12.0

1.8 5.0 5.2 4318.3 392.0

Note: With the same calorific value. Source: based on [48,49].

Table 3. A comparison of the benefits of using gas versus coal by 150,000 households. Items

Value

The amount of coal replaced The amount of CO2 emission reduced The amount of fly ash reduced The amount of traffic volume reduced Housework time saving

22.34 × 104 tons/year 1.07 × 104 tons/year 2.46 × 104 tons/year 111.7 × 104 km/year 1147.5 × 104 day/year

Source: based on [48].

3.1.3. Promoting the Upgrade of Petroleum Product Standards Vehicles are not only the main consumers of the total energy used in the transportation sector but are also the main contributors of GHG and CAP emissions from this sector, accounting for the largest share (over 50%) of NOx , 20% of SO2 and 15% of PM2.5 [7]. As the number of vehicles increases, the effect will be bigger. Experimental research and international experience show that fuel quality

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is a key factor in vehicle emissions control. One approach typically used in developed countries to halt this trend is to impose or strengthen fuel quality standards (and/or emissions standards for new vehicles). Table 4 presents the national fuel standard and sulfur content requirements for gasoline and diesel fuel in China, which fall behind those of developed regions such as the European Union, which implemented Euro IV (50 ppm) and V (10 ppm) in 2005 and 2009, respectively [55]. Compared with vehicles in Europe, vehicles in countries such as China have produced more emissions such as SO2 . Promoting a fuel standard is a viable option to improve the use of petroleum, which is helpful in reducing emissions. Table 4. National fuel standard and sulfur content requirement in China. National Standard Gasoline Diesel

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

National II (500 ppm)

2011

2012

2013

2014

National III (150 ppm)

National II (2000 ppm)

National III (350 ppm)

2015 National IV (50 ppm) National IV (50 ppm)

Source: based on [55].

3.1.4. Replacing Petroleum Products with Alternative Low-Carbon Fuels The transport sector, led by road transportation (vehicles specifically), is a main contributor to the total CAP and GHG emissions in a country. As learned from developed countries, there is an urgent need to expand the use of less polluting and more efficient alternative fuel sources. Compared with diesel and gasoline, NG and electricity are inherently clean-burning energy sources due to their lower carbon contents (or no carbon content). Replacing traditional gasoline and diesel fuels with NG and electricity will have an important impact on reducing CAP and GHG emissions from vehicles [7,56,57]. Because they are clean burning and offer power supply advantages (see Table 2), NG vehicles (NGVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) are viable clean alternatives to traditional fuel vehicles that will offer major emissions reduction potential. 3.1.5. Improving the Concentration Utilization of Rural Energy Rural energy consumption occupies a large proportion of the energy structure in many countries, including China. Rural energy consumption is also an important area in energy sustainable development strategies. In recent years, although the rural energy consumption structure has changed significantly, and low-quality energy sources such as firewood, straw and coal still account for a large proportion of the total structure. The proportion of high-quality energy sources, such as gas, is very low [58–60]. Compared with the concentration of urban energy use, rural energy use is more dispersed and is not conducive to improving energy efficiency or achieving energy conservation and emission reduction. In the event that a rural energy structure cannot be changed dramatically in a short period of time, improving the centralization of energy use such as implementing centralized heating and gas supplies is also a realistic and effective approach. For many villagers living in the countryside, due to resource limitations, these regions have not achieved central heating and still employ traditional methods of heating with low-quality energy sources such as coal. This traditional heating supply in rural areas plays a key role in the use of charcoal. The traditional heating methods used in rural areas are not only prone to health risks (especially gas poisoning) and result in haze events but also easily waste resources and cause air pollution. Changing traditional heating methods and implementing central heating in rural areas can bring multiple benefits, including improving energy efficiency savings, reducing atmospheric pollution, improving the quality of life of rural residents and reducing heating costs. Cooking and hot water supply in rural areas are also important contributors to the use of charcoal. Daily activities such as cooking and hot water supply in rural areas use low-efficiency energy sources such as coal as fuel, which not only cause haze but also result in the waste of resources and cause serious environmental problems. Implementing a centralized gas supply can also bring multiple

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benefits, including reducing the emission of GHG and CAPs, reducing deforestation to protect the environment, reducing energy costs, saving labor time, improving the living conditions of residents in rural areas, and improving the quality of life of rural residents. In addition to the emission of large amounts of GHG and CAPs caused by burning coal, large amounts of straw were wasted by biomass combustion in rural areas in many countries, including China. Straw production has increased year by year, and large amounts of straw are abandoned or burnt, not only polluting the environment and posing a serious threat to traffic safety but also resulting in a waste of resources. Straw is a valuable resource that can be substituted with clean energy, such as gas. Switching from straw to clean energy can increase the supply of clean energy, reduce the waste of resources and reduce the emission of GHG and CAPs due to the substitution of coal with cleaner energy. 3.2. Evaluation Methods Combined with the analysis framework above and based on a bottom-up method, an emission factor method and a “with or without” comparison method, this section establishes evaluation methods aiming to quantify the environmental benefits of implementing energy measures for tackling climate change and air pollution. For the energy action entitled “promoting the clean and efficient use of coal”, the emission reduction effect on CAPs and GHG can be calculated using Equation (1): ∆ERE1tn = ( EC1t0 − EC1tn ) × EF1t0

(1)

where ∆ERE1tn is the amount of reduction in GHG and CAP emissions due to adopting the “promoting the clean and efficient use of coal” energy action in year tn; EC1t0 is the amount of coal consumed to provide energy services such as electricity and heating supply without adopting this energy action in year t0; EC1tn is the coal consumed to provide energy services such as electricity and heating supply when adopting this energy action in year tn; and EF1t0 represents the emission factors of different energy services without adopting this energy action in year t0. For the “increasing the use of NG to replace coal” energy action plan, the emission reduction effect on CAPs and GHG is calculated as Equation (2): ∆ERE2tn = ECR2tn × EF2t0 − EC2tn × EF2tn

(2)

where ∆ERE2tn is the amount of reduction in GHG and CAP emissions due to the adoption of the above energy action in year tn; EC2tn is the NG consumed to provide energy services such as electricity and heating supply when implementing this energy action in year tn; ECR2tn is the reduction of coal consumption due to NG use in year tn; EF2t0 represents the emission factors of different energy services without implementing this energy action in year t0; and EF2tn represents the emission factors of different energy services with implementing this energy action in year tn. For the energy action plan entitled “promoting the upgrade of petroleum product standards”, the emission reduction effect on CAPs and GHG can be calculated using Equation (3): ∆ERE3tn = EC3tn × ( EF3t0 − EF3tn )

(3)

where ∆ERE3tn is the amount of reduction in GHG and CAP emissions due to the implementation of the above energy action in year tn; EC3tn is the amount of gasoline and diesel fuel consumed to provide energy services such as transportation when implementing this energy action plan in year tn; EF3t0 represents emission factors for fuel use without implementing this energy action in year t0; and EF3tn represents emission factors for fuel use when implementing this energy action in year tn.

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For the energy action entitled “replacing petroleum products with alternative low-carbon fuels”, the emission reduction effect on CAPs and GHG is calculated as Equation (4): ∆ERE4tn = ECR4tn × EF4t0 − EC4tn × EF4tn

(4)

where ∆ERE4tn is the amount of reduction in GHG and CAP emission due to implementing the above energy action plan in year tn; EC4tn is the amount of low-carbon fuel consumed to provide energy services such as transportation when implementing this energy action in year tn; ECR2tn is the reduction of petroleum product consumption due to alternative fuel use in year tn; EF2t0 represents emission factors for fuel use without implementing this energy action in year t0; and EF2tn represents emission factors for fuel use when implementing this energy action in year tn. For the energy action entitled “improving the centralized use of rural energy”, the emission reduction effect on CAPs and GHG is calculated in three parts. Regarding the promotion of centralized heating and gas supplies, the calculations of emission reduction effects, ∆ERE51tn and ∆ERE52tn , can be performed using Equations (1) and (2), respectively. Regarding the promotion of the clean utilization of straw, the emission reduction effect is calculated as in Equation (5): ∆ERE53tn = ECR53tn × EF53t0 − EC53tn × EF53tn

(5)

where ∆ERE2tn is the amount of reduction in GHG and CAP emissions due to adopting the energy action entitled “increasing the use of NG to replace coal” in year tn; EC2tn is the NG consumed to provide energy services such as electricity and heating supply when implementing this energy action in year tn; ECR2tn is the reduction in coal consumption due to the NG use in year tn; EF2t0 represents emission factors for different types of energy services without implementing this energy action in year t0; and EF2tn represents emission factors for different types of energy services when implementing this energy action in year tn. Combining Equation (5) with Equations (1) and (2), the overall emission reduction effect on CAPs and GHG due to the energy action entitled “improving the centralization of rural energy” is calculated as Equation (6): ∆ERE5tn = ∆ERE51tn + ∆ERE52tn + ∆ERE53tn (6) Based on the equations above, the sum of the CAP and GHG emission reduction effects of a series of energy action plans proposed to tackle climate change and air pollution is calculated, as in Equation (7): ∆EREstn = ∆ERE1tn + ∆ERE2tn + ∆ERE3tn + ∆ERE4tn + ∆ERE5tn + · · ·

(7)

4. Evaluation of the Reduction Effect of Energy Actions on GHG and CAP Emissions in China Many countries, including China, are now facing big challenges in tackling energy and environmental issues while pursuing sustainable development. As a typical developing country, China has taken many steps to implement a series of actions promoting the transformation and revolution of the energy structure to attain energy conservation and emission reductions. Based on the characteristics of energy consumption, GHG and CAP emissions in China, according to the analysis framework presented previously, the “upgrading, replacing and centralizing” actions that need to be carried out to attain the energy transition (as listed in Table 5) are as follows: (a) Action 1 is to enhance large coal-fired plants and limit small plants; (b) Action 2 is to implement a green boiler project; (c) Action 3 is to replace coal with NG in urban and rural areas; (d) Action 4 to accelerate the upgrading of petroleum products; (e) Action 5 is to promote the development of NGVs; (f) Action 6 is to promote the electrification of city public automobiles; and (g) Action 7 is to improve the centralization of rural energy use. Based on the calculation methods presented previously and related data (see Appendix A

project; (c) Action 3 is to replace coal with NG in urban and rural areas; (d) Action 4 to accelerate the upgrading of petroleum products; (e) Action 5 is to promote the development of NGVs; (f) Action 6 is to promote the electrification of city public automobiles; and (g) Action 7 is to improve the centralization of rural energy use. Based on the calculation methods presented previously and related data (see Appendix A Tables A2 and A3), the emission reduction effect of the Sustainability 2017, 9, 1555 10 of 23 implementation of these energy actions in China will be identified. Table 5. Upgrading, replacing andeffect centralizing actions for low-quality energy in China. Tables A2 and A3), the emission reduction of the implementation of these energy actions in China will be identified. Methods/Energy Types

Coal

Petroleum Production

Promoting theand efficient and clean Table 5. Upgrading, replacing centralizing actions for low-quality energy in China. utilization of coal, such as Methods/Energy Types enhancing large coal-fired Coal plants, Petroleumpetroleum Production Vigorously promoting product Upgrading Promoting the efficient and clean limiting small coal-fired plants standards (Action 3) utilization of coal, such as enhancing (Action 1) and implementing a Vigorously promoting petroleum large coal-fired plants, limiting small Upgrading greencoal-fired boiler project product standards (Action 3) plants(Action (Action2)1) and implementing a green boiler project NGVs to replace oil (Action 5) and the (Action 2) Large-scale use of NG to replace Rapid development of EVs (emphasizing Replacing NGVs to replace oil (Action 5) and coal (Action 4) the promotion ofdevelopment the electrification of city the Rapid of EVs Large-scale use of NG to replace coal the promotion of the Replacing public (emphasizing automobiles) (Action 6) (Action 4) electrification of city public Promoting the centralization of rural energy use, including centralized heating automobiles) (Action 6) Centralizing supply, centralized gas supply and the comprehensive utilization of straw Promoting the centralization of rural energy use, including centralized (Action 7) supply, centralized gas supply and the comprehensive utilization of Centralizing heating straw (Action 7)

500.0

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400.0

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300.0

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100.0

2000.0

0.0

Amount of GHG emission reduction (104 tons)

Amount of CAP emission reduction (104 tons)

4.1. Emission Reduction Effect of Proposed Energy Countermeasures in China 4.1. Emission Reduction Effect of Proposed Energy Countermeasures in China 4.1.1. Enhancing Large Coal-Fired Plants and Limiting Small Plants 4.1.1. Enhancing Large Coal-Fired Plants and Limiting Small Plants The Chinese government has long been aware of the problem of coal-fired plants in terms of The Chinese government longand beenenvironmental aware of the problem of Countermeasures coal-fired plants inaiming terms of negative scale effects, resourcehas waste pollution. to negative scale effects, resource waste and environmental pollution. Countermeasures aiming to achieve achieve energy consumption and major pollutant emission reduction targets during the 11th energy consumption and major emission reductionplants targets during 11th Five-Year Plan, Five-Year Plan, such as the planpollutant to enhance large coal-fired and limit the small coal-fired plants, such as the plan toby enhance large coal-fired plantsinand limit small The coal-fired plants, were introduced were introduced the Chinese government 2006 [61,62]. emission reduction effect of by the Chinese in 2006and [61,62]. The small emission reduction effect of large coal-fired enhancing largegovernment coal-fired plants limiting plants is presented in enhancing Figure 5 for three period plants and limiting presented in Figure an 5 for three period 2006–2015, during 2006–2015, during small whichplants time is this action achieved emission reduction of 19.9 Mt ofwhich SO2, time 12.1 this action achieved reduction of 19.9 MtCO of 2SO million tons of NOx,an 1.8emission Mt of PM 2.5 and 499.2 Mt of . 2 , 12.1 million tons of NOx , 1.8 Mt of PM2.5 and 499.2 Mt of CO2 .

0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SO2

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Figure 5. Emission reduction effect of enhancing large coal-fired plants and limiting small plants.

4.1.2. Implementing the Green Boiler Project Given that many measures have been taken to reduce the emissions from coal-fired plants and that these measures have achieved a certain effect, the emissions from another main source of pollution, coal-fired industrial boilers, have become a focus of the next stage of pollution control in

4.1.2. Implementing the Green Boiler Project Given that many measures have been taken to reduce the emissions from coal-fired plants and that these measures have achieved a certain effect, the emissions from another main source of pollution, coal-fired Sustainability 2017, 9, 1555 industrial boilers, have become a focus of the next stage of pollution control 11 of in 23 China. Considering that more efficient and low-emission boilers are being developed, implementing green boiler projects by taking measures such as improving quality standards and providing policy China. Considering that more efficient andoflow-emission boilers being developed, incentives will promote the application large-capacity and are high-quality boilers.implementing The average green boiler projects by taking measures such as improving quality standards and providing policy thermal efficiency of coal-fired industrial boilers will increase to 65.3% in 2016, 68.0% in 2020, and incentives will promote the application of large-capacity boilers.efficiency The average 74.6% in 2030, from 64.6% in 2015 [63,64]. Such a planand willhigh-quality promote energy andthermal reduce efficiency of coal-fired industrial boilers will 65.3% in 2016, 68.0% 2020, and 74.6% pollution and represents an effective way toincrease achieve to the high-efficiency andinlow-emission use in of 2030, from 64.6% in 2015 [63,64]. Such a plan will promote energy efficiency and reduce pollution and coal. Based on the amount of coal consumption and change in emissions per unit of coal use, the represents an effective waycreated to achieve the high-efficiency and low-emission of coal. Based on the emission reduction effect by implementing the green boiler projectuse is estimated (illustrated amount of coal consumption and change in emissions per unit of coal use, the emission reduction in Figure 6). In 2016, an emission reduction of 0.4 Mt of CAPs and 26.1 Mt of GHG was achieved. effect by implementing the of green boiler (illustrated 6). In 2016, These created reductions will reach 0.3 Mt CAPs and project 18.6 Mtisofestimated GHG in 2020 and 0.2in MtFigure of CAPs and 8.3 an emission reduction of 0.4 Mt of CAPs and 26.1 Mt of GHG was achieved. These reductions will Mt of GHG in 2030. reach 0.3 Mt of CAPs and 18.6 Mt of GHG in 2020 and 0.2 Mt of CAPs and 8.3 Mt of GHG in 2030. NOx

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Figure 6. 6. Emission Emission reduction reduction effect effect of Figure of promoting promoting green green boiler boiler use. use.

4.1.3. Replacing Coal with NG in Urban and Rural Areas Considering the significantly lower emissions of NG compared to coal, China is increasing its efforts to replace coal with NG in urban and rural areas. This replacement is taking place in several sectors, including the urban and rural residential sector, coal power sector and coal-fired industrial boiler sector. residential sector as an a review of theofrelated policypolicy and plans sector.Taking Takingthe theurban urban residential sector as example, an example, a review the related and issued by China indicates that the share NGof used urban residents in China accounted for 18.7% plans issued by China indicates that the of share NGby used by urban residents in China accounted for of the total useNG in 2016, increase of 6% from [65,66]. For 2020 and 2030, share be 18.7% of theNG total use inan 2016, an increase of 6%2015 from 2015 [65,66]. For 2020 andthis 2030, thiswill share 19.2% 20.7%, The estimated emission emission reductionreduction effect of replacing with NG will beand 19.2% andrespectively. 20.7%, respectively. The estimated effect of coal replacing coalbased with on amount of NG consumption and the emission reduction factor of fuelfactor substitution is displayed NGthe based on the amount of NG consumption and the emission reduction of fuel substitution in Figure 7. in AnFigure emission 4 Mt of of CAPs 485.3and Mt 485.3 of GHG achieved in 2016. is displayed 7. Anreduction emissionof reduction 4 Mtand of CAPs Mt was of GHG was achieved By 2020 By and2020 2030, these reductions will be 6.1 Mtbe of6.1 CAPs with 802.6 Mt 802.6 of GHG 10.1 and Mt of CAPs in 2016. and 2030, these reductions will Mt of CAPs with Mt and of GHG 10.1 Mt with 1454.1 Mt1454.1 of GHG, respectively. The substitution of NG for coal for in the of Urumqi, China, of CAPs with Mt of GHG, respectively. The substitution of NG coalcity in the city of Urumqi, aChina, reduction measuremeasure for the co-control plan proposed by Zeng etby al. Zeng [23], resulted in the reduction of a reduction for the co-control plan proposed et al. [23], resulted in the 27.3 thousand tonsthousand of SO2 , 5 tons thousand NOx , 9.5tons thousand PM10 , and 2099.6 thousand reduction of 27.3 of SOtons 2, 5 of thousand of NOtons x, 9.5of thousand tons of PM 10, and tons of thousand CO2 . If these estimations applied to the entire country to of China, the results 2099.6 tons of CO2. Ifare these estimations are applied the entire countryare ofcomparable China, the with those this study.with those of this study. results are of comparable

Sustainability 2017, 9, 9, 1555 Sustainability Sustainability 2017, 2017, 9, 1555 1555

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SO2 SO2

Figure effectof ofreplacing replacingcoal coalwith withNG. NG. Figure Emission reduction Figure7.7. 7.Emission Emission reduction reduction effect effect of replacing coal with NG.

4.1.4. Accelerating the Upgrading of Petroleum 4.1.4. Acceleratingthe theUpgrading Upgradingof ofPetroleum Petroleum Product Product Standards Standards 4.1.4. Accelerating Product Standards Given the effects the implementation in China and the Giventhe theeffects effectsofof ofthe theimplementation implementation of of the the national fuel standard action inin China and thethe Given of the national nationalfuel fuelstandard standardaction action China and lessons learned from international experience, the new standards for gasoline and diesel fuel are lessons learned from international experience, the new standards for gasoline and diesel fuel areare lessons learned from international experience, the new standards for gasoline and diesel fuel National IV (50 ppm) for 2016, National V (10 ppm) for 2020 and National VI (5 ppm) for 2030, National IV (50 ppm) for 2016, National V (10 ppm) for 2020 and National VI (5 ppm) for 2030, National IV (50 ppm) for 2016, National V (10 ppm) for 2020 and National VI (5 ppm) for 2030, compared to the old National III standard 4) [67]. Figure 88 presents the emission reduction compared theold oldNational NationalIII IIIstandard standard (see (see Table Table emission reduction compared toto the (see Table 4) 4) [67]. [67].Figure Figure 8presents presentsthe the emission reduction effect of petroleum standard upgrades in China. Based on the sulfur content requirements effect of petroleum standard upgrades in China. Based on the sulfur content requirements of of the the effect of petroleum standard upgrades in China. Based on the sulfur content requirements of the corresponding national fuel standards and actual fuel use, this emission reduction effect can corresponding national fuel standards and actual fuel use, this emission reduction effect can be be corresponding national fuel standards and actual fuel use, this emission reduction effect can be evaluated. evaluated. In In 2016, 2016, an an emission emission reduction reduction of of 12.8 12.8 Mt Mt of of CAPs CAPs was was achieved. achieved. By By 2020 2020 and and 2030, 2030, these these evaluated. In 2016, an emission reduction of 12.8 Mt of CAPs was achieved. By 2020 and 2030, reductions reductions will will be be 2.4 2.4 Mt Mt and and 0.3 0.3 Mt Mt of of CAPs, CAPs, respectively. respectively. these reductions will be 2.4 Mt and 0.3 Mt of CAPs, respectively.

SO22 emission emissionreduction reduction SO tons) (1044tons) (10

14 14 12 12 10 10 88 66 44 22 00

2016 2016

2020 2020

2030 2030

Figure 8. Emission reduction effect of the fuel standard upgrades. Figure Figure 8. 8. Emission Emission reduction reduction effect effect of of the the fuel fuel standard standard upgrades. upgrades.

4.1.5. Promoting the Development of NGVs 4.1.5. 4.1.5. Promoting Promoting the the Development Development of of NGVs NGVs According to investigations and surveys, the largest largest numberofofNGVs NGVs in China are compressed According According to to investigations investigations and and surveys, surveys, the the largest number number of NGVs in in China China are are compressed compressed natural gas (CNG) taxis, CNG passenger vehicles, CNG buses, CNG trucks (light duty), natural natural gas gas (CNG) (CNG) taxis, taxis, CNG CNG passenger passenger vehicles, vehicles, CNG CNG buses, buses, CNG CNG trucks trucks (light (light duty), duty), liquefied liquefied liquefied natural gas (LNG) buses, and LNG trucks (heavy duty). A review of related policy and plans natural natural gas gas (LNG) (LNG) buses, buses, and and LNG LNG trucks trucks (heavy (heavy duty). duty). A A review review of of related related policy policy and and plans plans issued issued issued by Chinese the Chinese government indicates the population of NGVs million 2016 by government indicates that the of was 5.5 million in 2016 by the the Chinese government indicates that that the population population of NGVs NGVs waswas 5.5 5.5 million in in 2016 (increasing 10% from 2015) and will grow to 8 million in 2020 and 14 million in 2030 [68]. After obtaining (increasing 10% from 2015) and will grow to 8 million in 2020 and 14 million in 2030 [68]. After (increasing 10% from 2015) and will grow to 8 million in 2020 and 14 million in 2030 [68]. After obtaining data about of and reduction factor fuel data about the of NGVs and the emission reduction factor for fuelfor substitution by such obtaining datapopulation about the the population population of NGVs NGVs and the the emission emission reduction factor for fuel substitution substitution by vehicles, the emission effect NGV use as in vehicles, emission effect of increasing NGV use is estimated, as presented in Figure by such suchthe vehicles, the reduction emission reduction reduction effect of of increasing increasing NGV use is is estimated, estimated, as presented presented in 9. 9. emission Mt CAPs Mt GHG was in AnFigure emission of 0.1 Mt of of0.1 CAPs and 13.9and Mt13.9 of GHG achieved in 2016, afterafter which Figure 9. An Anreduction emission reduction reduction of 0.1 Mt of of CAPs and 13.9 Mt of ofwas GHG was achieved achieved in 2016, 2016, after Mt 23.6 Mt of will 2030, will be Mt which 0.2 Mt of of CAPs CAPs and 23.6 Mt will of GHG GHG will be be reduced reduced in 2020. 2020. By 2030, they willMt beof0.4 0.4 Mt of of 0.2which Mt of0.2 CAPs and 23.6 and Mt of GHG be reduced in 2020. in By 2030,By they willthey be 0.4 CAPs and CAPs and 43.8 Mt of GHG. Given the significant contribution of NGVs, growing the NGV CAPs 43.8Given Mt of Givencontribution the significant contribution of the NGVs, the in NGV 43.8 Mt ofand GHG. theGHG. significant of NGVs, growing NGVgrowing population future will further reduce CAP and GHG emissions, which will represent a major contribution to emission reductions in China.

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GHG emission reductions GHG emission reductions due to due to 4 tons) NGV (104 tons) NGV use (10use

CAP emission reductions CAP emission reductions due to due to 4 tons) NGV (104 tons) NGV use (10use

Sustainability 2017, 9, 1555 will further reduce CAP and GHG emissions, which will represent a major 13 of 23 population in future contribution to emission reductions in China. population in future will further reduce CAP and GHG emissions, which will represent a major contribution to emission reductions in China. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1555 13 of 23

Figure 9. Emission reduction effect of NGV use.

Figure of 9. Emission reduction effect of NGV use. 4.1.6. Promoting the Electrification City Public Automobiles

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0 Figure 10. Emission reduction effect of 2030 CPV use. 2016 2020 Figure 10. Emission reduction effect of CPV use.

emission reductions GHG GHG emission reductions due todue to 4 tons) CPV use (104 tons) CPV use (10

CAP emission reductions CAP emission reductions due todue to 4 tons) CPV use (104 tons) CPV use (10

4.1.6.China Promoting the Electrification of City Public Automobiles has prioritized promoting of city public vehicles (CPVs), including city 4.1.6. Promoting the Electrification of the Cityelectrification Public Automobiles public buses, taxis, sanitation trucks, shuttle buses and vehicles. A (CPVs), review of the related China has prioritized promoting the electrification ofdelivery city public vehicles including city China has prioritized promoting the electrification of city public vehicles (CPVs), including city policy plans issued by China indicates thatbuses population of CPVs was 0.3 million in of 2016 will public and buses, taxis, sanitation trucks, shuttle and delivery vehicles. A review theand related public buses, taxis, sanitation trucks, shuttle buses and delivery vehicles. A review of the related be 1.1 million in 2020 and million in 2030 [69]. After the of data on the andwill the policy and plans issued by4.8 China indicates that population CPVs waspopulation 0.3 millionof inCPVs 2016 and policy and plans issued byof China indicates thatby population of CPVs was 0.3 million in 2016 and will emission reduction factor fuel substitution such vehicles have been obtained, the emission be 1.1 million in 2020 and 4.8 million in 2030 [69]. After the data on the population of CPVs and be 1.1 million inof 2020 and million in 2030 [69].inAfter the10). data the population of CPVs and the reduction effect CPV use4.8 is of estimated (shown In on 2016, emission reduction of 0.3 the emission reduction factor fuel substitution byFigure such vehicles havean been obtained, the emission emission reduction factor of fuel substitution by such vehicles have been obtained, the emission Mt of CAPs andof0.7 Mt use of GHG was achieved. 2030, these reductions will be 1.3 Mt of CAPs reduction effect CPV is estimated (shownBy in Figure 10). In 2016, an emission reduction of 0.3and Mt reduction effect of CPV use is estimated (shown in Figure 10). In 2016, an emission reduction of 0.3 9.6 Mt of GHG. of CAPs and 0.7 Mt of GHG was achieved. By 2030, these reductions will be 1.3 Mt of CAPs and 9.6 Mt Mt of CAPs and 0.7 Mt of GHG was achieved. By 2030, these reductions will be 1.3 Mt of CAPs and of GHG. 9.6 Mt of GHG.

4.1.7. Improving the Concentration of Rural Energy Use Figure 10. Emission reduction 4.1.7. Improving the Concentration of Rural Energy Use effect of CPV use. Given the large emission contribution of charcoal burning in rural areas, China is actively taking the large emission contribution of charcoal burning in rural areas, China is actively 4.1.7.Given Improving theuse Concentration of Rural Energy Use policy action to reduce the of coal, including implementing plans and work programs to promote taking action to reduce the use of coal, including implementing policy plans and work programs to centralized heating with large coal-fired boilers and the increasing userural of NG to replace charcoal for Given the largeheating emission contribution of charcoal areas, China promote centralized with large coal-fired boilers burning and the in increasing use of NG is to actively replace cooking and hot water supply [70–72]. Taking heating supply for example, a review the related taking action to reduce use of coal, including implementing policy plans workofprograms to charcoal for cooking andthe hot water supply [70–72]. Taking heating supply forand example, a review of policy and plans issued by China indicates that the share of charcoal use replaced by centralized promote centralized heating with large coal-fired boilers and the increasing use of NG to replace the related policy and plans issued by China indicates that the share of charcoal use replaced by heating in 2016 be 15% in 2020 andTaking 35% inheating 2030. Additionally, China is aincreasing charcoalwas for 5% cooking andand hotwill water supply [70–72]. supply for example, review of its efforts to reduce the burning of straw. Switching this practice to clean energy such as gas will the related policy and plans issued by China indicates that the share of charcoal use replaced by not only can reduce the waste of resources and reduce environment pollution but may also increase new supplies of clean energy that can also reduce the emission of GHG and CAPs from coal use. The estimated emission reduction effect of improving the centralization of rural energy use is shown

increasing efforts to reduce the burning straw. Switching this practice energy as in 2016, and 4.9itsMt of CAPs and 246.8 Mt of of GHG will be reduced in 2020.to Byclean 2030, thesesuch reductions gas8.7 willMt not canand reduce theMt waste of resources and reduce environment pollution but may also will be ofonly CAPs 459.3 of GHG.

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800

energy use (104 tons)

CAP emission reduction from improving the centralization of rural CAP emission reduction from 4 tons) energy useof(10 improving the centralization rural

increase new supplies of clean energy that can also reduce the emission of GHG and CAPs from coal use. The estimated emission reduction effect of improving the centralization of rural energy Sustainability 2017, 1555 11. An emission reduction of 1 Mt of CAPs and 49.2 Mt of GHG was achieved 14 of 23 use is shown in9,Figure in 2016, and 4.9 Mt of CAPs and 246.8 Mt of GHG will be reduced in 2020. By 2030, these reductions NOx PM2.5 GHG will be 8.7 Mt of CAPs and 459.3SO2 Mt of GHG. in Figure 11. An emission reduction of 1 Mt of CAPs and 49.2 Mt of GHG was achieved in 2016, 1000 and 4.9 Mt of CAPs and 246.8 Mt of GHG will be reduced in 2020. By 2030,50,000 these reductions will be 8.7 Mt of CAPs and 459.3 Mt of GHG.

Figure 11. Emission reduction effect of improving the centralization of rural energy use. 2016 2020 2030 Figure 11. Emission reduction effect of improving the centralization of rural energy use. 4.2. Overall Effect of Proposed Energy Countermeasures in China

Figure 11. Emission reduction effect of improving the centralization of rural energy use.

4.2. Overall Effect of Proposed Energy Countermeasures in China 4.2.1.4.2. Comprehensive Overall Effect of Effects Proposed Energy Countermeasures in China 4.2.1. Comprehensive Effects 1 energy countermeasure, which has been implemented to tackle In addition to the Action 4.2.1. Comprehensive Effects climate change and haze pollution China, otherwhich energy In addition to the Action 1 energyincountermeasure, has countermeasures been implemented toalso tacklesignificantly climate In addition to the Action 1 energy countermeasure, which has been implemented to tackle contribute to reducing CAP and GHG emissions. Figure 12 shows the estimated overall emission change and haze pollution in China, other energy countermeasures also significantly contribute to climate change and haze pollution in China, other energy countermeasures also significantly reduction effect proposed countermeasures. Due to these countermeasures, reducing CAP of andthe GHG emissions.energy Figure 12 shows the estimated overall emission reduction effect an contribute to reducing CAP and3.3 GHG 12NO shows the estimated overall emission of the emission proposed energy countermeasures. Due toFigure these an of estimated emission estimated reduction of Mt emissions. of SO 2, 1.6 Mt ofcountermeasures, x, and 0.8 Mt PM 2.5, i.e., 5.7 Mt of reduction effect of the proposed energy countermeasures. Due to these countermeasures, an reduction of 3.3 Mt of SO , 1.6 Mt of NO , and 0.8 Mt of PM , i.e., 5.7 Mt of CAPs, was achieved x 2 2.5 CAPs, was achieved in 2016. Simultaneously, GHG emission were estimated to have been reduced estimated emission reduction of 3.3 Mt of SO2estimated , 1.6 Mt oftoNO x, and 0.8 Mt of PM2.5, i.e., 5.7 Mt of in 2016. have by 574.8 Mt1093.9 in 2016. by 574.8 Mt Simultaneously, in 2016. By 2020GHG andemission 2030, anwere emission reduction ofbeen 12.1reduced Mt of CAPs and Mt of CAPs, was achieved in 2016. Simultaneously, GHG emission were estimated to have been reduced By 2020 and 2030, an emission reduction of 12.1 Mt of CAPs and 1093.9 Mt of GHG and an emission GHGbyand an emission reduction of 20.7an Mtemission of CAPs and 1975.0 MtMtofofGHG, respectively, will be 574.8 Mt 2016. 2020 and reduction of 12.1 CAPs andThis 1093.9 Mt of reduction of in 20.7 Mt By of CAPs and2030, 1975.0 Mt of GHG, respectively, will be achieved. estimate achieved. Thisan estimate indicates that the Mt emission reduction effect of GHG, the energy countermeasures GHG and emission reduction of effect 20.7 of energy CAPs and 1975.0 Mt of respectively, be indicates that the emission reduction of the countermeasures on CAPs and GHG inwill China on CAPs and GHG in China is significant. achieved. This estimate indicates that the emission reduction effect of the energy countermeasures is significant. on CAPs and GHG in China is significant.

Figure 12. Emission reduction effect of energy actions implemented in China: (a) CAP reduction effect; and (b) GHG reduction effect.

4.2.2. Maximizing Emission Reductions for Different Targets As stated previously, the implemented energy actions generate significant environmental benefits with respect to reducing GHG and CAP (PM2.5 especially) emissions. These actions will play a vital

Figure 12. Emission reduction effect of energy actions implemented in China: (a) CAP reduction effect; and (b) GHG reduction effect.

4.2.2. Maximizing Emission Reductions for Different Targets Sustainability 2017, 9,previously, 1555 As stated

15 of 23 the implemented energy actions generate significant environmental benefits with respect to reducing GHG and CAP (PM2.5 especially) emissions. These actions will play a vital role in tackling climate change and haze pollution in China. However, the difference between role in tackling climate change and haze pollution in China. However, the difference between the the emission reduction effects of the different energy actions in terms of PM2.5 and GHG reduction is emission reduction effects of the different energy actions in terms of PM2.5 and GHG reduction is great, great, as illustrated in Figure 13. For reducing the emission of GHG in China, the best energy action as illustrated in Figure 13. For reducing the emission of GHG in China, the best energy action is Action is Action 7. To reduce PM2.5 emissions in China, the best energy action is Action 4. Therefore, this 7. To reduce PM2.5 emissions in China, the best energy action is Action 4. Therefore, this analysis analysis is helpful for the decision-making body in China to identify key actions and the is helpful for the decision-making body in China to identify key actions and the implementation implementation priority thereof to maximize emissions reductions for different targets. priority thereof to maximize emissions reductions for different targets.

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tons)

Figure 13. Difference in the emission reduction effects of energy actions in terms of PM2.5 and Figure 13. Difference in the emission reduction effects of energy actions in terms of PM2.5 and GHG GHG reductions. reductions.

5. Lessons for Countries Similar to China 5. Lessons for Countries similar to China Given the increasing attention to the significant impacts of climate change and air pollution, Given the increasing attention to the significant impacts of climate change and air pollution, society is increasingly emphasizing finding ways to provide more clean energy for a growing global society is increasingly emphasizing finding ways to provide more clean energy for a growing global population while emitting much less GHG and CAPs. The Paris Agreement reached in the 21st population while emitting much less GHG and CAPs. The Paris Agreement reached in the 21st Conference of the Parties held in Paris in December 2015 is a major milestone in the effort to combat Conference of the Parties held in Paris in December 2015 is a major milestone in the effort to combat climate change and will also play a vital role in reducing air pollutants. The ultimate objective, climate change and will also play a vital role in reducing air pollutants. The ultimate objective, which has already been adopted by the governments of more than 150 countries, is to limit global which has already been adopted by the governments of more than 150 countries, is to limit global warming to an average of no more than 2 ◦ C relative to pre-industrial levels [4,18,33]. To achieve the warming to an average of no more than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels [4,18,33]. To achieve the 2 ◦ C target, global anthropogenic GHG emissions must be decreased by 40–70% by 2050 compared to 2 °C target, global anthropogenic GHG emissions must be decreased by 40–70% by 2050 compared 2010 levels, and emissions levels must be near zero or below zero by 2100 [4]. Many countries, including to 2010 levels, and emissions levels must be near zero or below zero by 2100 [4]. Many countries, China, have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), mainly focusing including China, have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), on achieving peak CO2 emissions, lowering CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, and increasing the share mainly focusing on achieving peak CO2 emissions, lowering CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, and of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption. Facing these huge challenges, many countries increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption. Facing these huge must take suitable countermeasures, especially from an energy perspective, to guarantee green and challenges, many countries must take suitable countermeasures, especially from an energy low-carbon development. perspective, to guarantee green and low-carbon development. 5.1. Establishing an Analysis Framework 5.1. Establishing an Analysis Framework As stated above, the energy countermeasures aimed at addressing climate change and improving As stated above, the energycan countermeasures addressing change and air quality implemented in China play a significantaimed role inatreducing CAP climate and GHG emissions. improving quality implemented in China can playpresented a significant in reducing CAP to and GHG This findingairalso means that the analysis framework hererole is helpful for China identify emissions. This finding also means that the analysis framework presented here is helpful for China energy action options and to investigate the order in which the plans should be implemented and to identify Many energycountries action options and to investigate order an in analysis which the plans should be prioritized. similar to China also need tothe establish framework based on implemented and prioritized. Many countries similar to China also need to establish an analysis the characteristics of their domestic energy consumption and GHG and CAP emissions. Based on the analysis framework established here, these countries can make wise decisions on the implementation of suitable energy actions to tackle climate change and air pollution. Additionally, actively promoting the use of energy-saving stoves in rural areas is a way of promoting the clean and efficient use of coal, which is helpful in achieving energy savings and emission reductions. Although the use of such stoves

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is also an energy action option to reduce CAP and GHG emissions, this action falls outside of the scope of this paper. The analysis framework presented in this paper can serve as a model for countries similar to China. 5.2. Using the Framework to Evaluate the Emission Reduction Effect of Energy Countermeasures After the analysis framework has been established, the emission reduction effect of energy countermeasures implemented in these countries can be measured using the proposed calculation methods. As with the methods used for China, these calculations could adopt a “with and without” comparison method. A comparison of scenarios with and without the implementation of the given energy actions in a target year allows for the calculation of emission reductions in GHG and CAPs. If the energy countermeasures implemented obtain emission reductions, the comprehensive and collaborative effects of energy actions can be identified. Although this proposed framework is presented for the analysis of the emission reduction effects of energy countermeasures at the country level, the framework can also be used for analyses at the province level or city level if key data can be obtained. 5.3. Identifying Vital Energy Countermeasures with Effect Analysis The overall emission reduction effect of energy countermeasures implemented can be measured with an analysis of comprehensive effects. This approach will be helpful in identifying the potential to achieve the emission reduction targets of these countries, including China. For example, the Chinese government has made certain energy commitments, such as raising the low-carbon fuel rate to 20% by 2030. These considerations have been taken into account in the case study presented here. The comprehensive effect analysis finds that raising the low-carbon fuel rate can result in significant emission reductions, which is helpful in achieving environmental targets. The energy actions analyzed in this study support the control of CAP and GHG emissions in parallel. Moreover, this analysis can help identify the GHG and CAP emission reduction effect sizes of each energy action, which can help in the investigation of key actions and the identifying implementation priorities. Therefore, action priorities should be identified when energy actions are needed to tackle climate change and to improve air quality. For example, if the work priority is to improve air quality, energy actions contributing to reducing PM2.5 emissions, such as reducing the use of rural charcoal burning, should be prioritized. Similarly, for tackling climate change, energy actions contributing to reducing GHG emissions, such as replacing coal with NG in urban and rural areas, should be prioritized. The effect analysis is also helpful for exploring the order in which energy actions should be taken for different targets to maximize emissions reduction. This effect analysis can identify suitable energy countermeasures while incorporating regional differences. For example, in northern areas, centralized heating is an effective way to reduce GHG and CAP emissions. 5.4. Issuing Assistance Measures to Support the Implementation of Energy Countermeasures Given the significant emission reduction effect of energy countermeasures, ensuring the implementation of these energy actions is key. Using China as a case study, these countries should take a number of additional measures, such as issuing policies and regulations, to ensure the implementation of these energy countermeasures. When replacing coal with NG in urban and rural areas, for example, measures to support the implementation of this energy action may be necessary, e.g., strengthening the construction of NG infrastructure, adjusting the price of NG to make it competitive, and improving pollutant emission standards to promote the use of NG. If the assistance measures are not powerful enough to ensure the implementation of these actions, the implementation effect of energy actions will be difficult to measure, which will in turn affect the decision-making process on measures to climate change and improve air quality.

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6. Concluding Remarks To tackle climate change and air pollution in the pursuit of sustainable development, many countries, including China, are increasing their efforts to develop and implement suitable energy countermeasures. This paper establishes a framework for the quantitative evaluation of the emission reduction effects of energy actions that provide suitable energy countermeasures. This analysis framework focuses on implementing “upgrading, replacing and centralizing” actions to achieve energy transitions based on the characteristics of energy consumption and related GHG and CAP emissions. As a typical developing country pursuing green and low-carbon development, China is taken as an example to demonstrate the application of the proposed analysis framework to evaluate the effect of the presented energy actions. Using the proposed framework, the emission reduction effects of energy actions implemented in China are estimated. The results indicate that, due to the implementation of the presented energy actions, a significant emission reduction effect on CAPs and GHG has been achieved. There are differences in the emission reduction effects of each energy action, especially for different targets. This finding means that the proposed framework can not only effectively help China identify the effect of a given energy action on reducing GHG and CAP emissions but can also help China identify key actions and their implementation priority and order to maximize emissions reductions for different targets. This framework can help China generate ideas and develop programs to tackle climate change and haze pollution. Moreover, this proposed framework can also help countries similar to China make decisions on suitable energy countermeasures to address climate change and improve air quality. Based on the analyses presented in this paper, when developing suitable energy countermeasures to maximize emissions reductions, some key actions should be taken. First, priorities should be identified when energy actions are needed to tackle climate change and to improve air quality. Second, the implementation priority and order of energy actions should be evaluated to maximize emission reductions. Third, suitable energy countermeasures should incorporate regional differences. Finally, measures should to be taken to support and ensure the implementation of these energy actions. Acknowledgments: This project was co-sponsored by the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (2017M610096), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71774095, 71690244 and 71673165) and International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2016YFE0102200). Author Contributions: Xunmin Ou and Gehua Wang conceived and designed the research framework. Jiehui Yuan and Xunmin Ou performed the model development, analyzed the data and wrote the paper. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Appendix A Table A1. Deaths attributable to ambient air pollution in 2012, by disease and region (one thousand). Wpr

ALRI COPD Lung cance IHD Stroke Total

Eur

Emr

Amr

Sear

Afr

LMIC

HIC

LMIC

HIC

LMIC

HIC

LMIC

HIC

11 84

1 9

2 7

0 0

28 9

0 0

3 3

0 0

49 126

76 4

225

26

50

18

8

2

11

9

47

5

270 475 1065

27 20 83

157 93 309

106 46 170

91 64 200

1 1 4

50 30 97

24 7 40

304 273 799

52 74 211

Note: ALRI, acute lower respiratory disease; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; IHD, ischeamic heart disease; Wpr, Western Pacifc; Eur, Europe; Emr, Eastern Mediterranean; Amr, Americas; Sear, Southeast Asia; Afr, Africa; LMIC: Low- and middle-income countries; HIC: High-income countries. Source: based on WHO (2016) [12].

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Table A2. Key parameters for the calculation of the emission reduction effect of energy Action 1.

Action 1

EC1t0 (108 tce)

EC1tn (108 tce)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8.09 9.25 9.61 10.33 11.72 13.38 13.46 14.48 14.76 14.36

8.06 8.96 9.03 9.64 10.66 12.01 11.97 12.75 12.91 12.43

EF1t0 (kg/tce) SO2

NOx

PM2.5

CO2

18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86 18.86

10.52 10.52 10.52 10.52 10.52 10.52 10.52 10.52 10.52 10.52

1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

2990.20 2990.20 2990.20 2990.20 2990.20 2990.20 2990.20 2990.20 2990.20 2990.20

Data source: [26,61,62].

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Table A3. Key parameters for the calculation of the emission reduction effects of energy Actions 2 to 7.

Action Types Action 2 Action 3 Action 4 Action 5 Action 6 Action 7

ECOt (108 tce)

ECAt (108 tce)

EFOt (kg/tce)

EFAt (kg/tce)

2016

2020

2030

2016

2020

2030

SO2

NOx

PM2.5

CO2

SO2

NOx

PM2.5

CO2

Data Sources

5.14 4.23 1.76 0.54 0.85 2.61

4.02 5.25 2.57 0.80 1.43 3.02

3.06 6.12 4.12 1.26 2.23 3.79

4.89 4.23 1.24 0.59 0.47 1.84

3.69 5.25 1.81 0.86 0.79 2.13

2.75 6.12 2.91 1.37 1.23 2.68

11.50 0.35 8.21 0.26 0.26 15.76

6.65 N/A 4.75 27.85 27.85 1.1

1.35 N/A 0.96 0.21 0.21 7.22

2934.05 N/A 2095.80 2750.12 2750.12 2188.25

11.50 0.1 0.1 0.16 0.13 8.67

6.65 N/A 0.48 16.71 13.93 0.61

1.35 N/A 0.1 0.13 0.11 3.97

2934.05 N/A 1257.48 1650.07 1375.06 1203.54

[63,64] [65] [66,67] [68] [68,69] [70–72]

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Appendix B

Appendix B

Figure A1. A1. The shares shares of of deaths deaths attributable attributable to to air air pollution pollution in in 2012. 2012. Source: Source: based based on on [7,12]. [7,12]. Figure

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