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The 2015 UK General Election Manifestos A Freshwater Briefing

Contents The road to the general election

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What do the manifestos mean for transport and infrastructure? 3 Rail

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Local transport

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Roads

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Infrastructure and airports

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Housing and construction

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Energy

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Devolution

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The road to the general election

April

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BBC Daily Politics Education debate

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Public sector finances (deficit, debt and borrowing)

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BBC Daily Politics Home Affairs debate

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Proxy vote application deadline

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Preliminary GDP figures for Q1 2015

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BBC Daily Politics Health debate

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Special Question Time debate with David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg appearing separately

May

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BBC Daily Politics Welfare debate

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Election Day: polls open 7am-10pm

11pm First declaration expected from Houghton & Sunderland South 8

Final declaration expected from St Ives

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First meeting of new Parliament, election of the Speaker and swearing in of Members

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State Opening of Parliament and Queen's Speech

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What do the manifestos mean for transport and infrastructure? Commentators are generally agreed that this year’s general election will be the closest run in nearly a hundred years, and almost unanimous in their belief that it will produce the second hung parliament in as many elections.

farms, both Labour and the SNP support onshore wind. In the event of a Conservative minority government, they might, therefore, have difficulty implementing this policy when it came to being debate on the floor of the House.

In this context, what is the importance of manifestos? If what really matters is how effectively parties negotiate in the days after the public has voted, are their manifestos anything more than a list of ‘nice-to-haves’? Even in majority governments there are manifesto ‘promises’ which fall by the wayside, so in any coalition or minority government even fewer commitments will make it into the Queen’s Speech.

In general, transport receives a fair amount of attention in the manifestos of all parties. In particular, there seems to be consensus on the importance of devolution of powers to improve local transport systems – all three main UK parties are agreed on this. There is also a recognition of the need for more smart ticketing and changes to rail fares, which in turn reflect a wider understanding that more could be done to give passengers get a better deal, even if that means the wider taxpayer contributing more and the users of the railways a little less.

However, the manifestos from Labour and the Conservatives are still important as illustrations of their policy priorities - and important to us as one or the other will undoubtedly lead the next government. When you add in the manifestos from the Liberal Democrats and the so-called ‘minor’ parties, you can start to develop an idea of key points of difference and coalescence across the political mix. To this end, the manifestos are important in helping us understand how parties may negotiate in the event of a hung parliament, and how the legislative priorities of a minority government might fare. For example, the SNP has frequently stated its intention to put pressure on Labour to start HS2 in Scotland, and indeed, the SNP commits to this policy in their manifesto, arguing for the simultaneous construction of HS2 from Scotland down as well as from London up. In a Labour-SNP arrangement could this policy be one that Labour could get on board with, or could it prove an obstacle to further agreement? It is not only Labour whose life may be made more complicated by an increased SNP presence in Westminster. While the Conservatives pledge to end subsidies for new onshore wind

With regards to infrastructure, perhaps the most notable point of cross-party consensus is on housing. Though specific policy commitments differ markedly, all parties agree that much more needs to be done to tackle the growing housing crisis. All parties propose significant changes to the way we plan and build houses in order to quickly and significantly increase supply. Whether they promise ‘a brighter, more secure future’, ‘opportunity for everyone’ or that ‘Britain can be better’, it is also striking how little in the way of hard detail is included. Even the mammoth 158-page tome from the Liberal Democrats is guilty of this, favouring lots of ideas and intentions without fully explaining how, in practical terms, they would be funded and implemented. One might suggest that this is no coincidence - less detail now means more scope to be flexible come the hard bargaining starting on 8 May. This report now continues with the main manifesto pledges in the key areas of transport and infrastructure policy.

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Rail The Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats all reassert their support for the HS2 rail link. Labour qualifies its support by pledging to attempt to keep costs down, whilst the Liberal Democrats describe the rail link as the first step towards a high-speed rail network to Scotland. The SNP go further, and seek the linking of Scotland to HS2 as an immediate priority. The Greens and Ukip used their manifestos to restate their opposition to HS2.

Electrification is signalled as a major part of railway investment by both the Conservative and Liberal Democrat manifestos. The Conservatives reference electrification as part of £38 billion of investment in rail from 2015 to 2019 (not including HS2). The Liberal Democrats pledge to develop a comprehensive plan to electrify the majority of the rail network. Plaid Cymru states its aim to be the electrification of all major lines in Wales by 2034.

As well as providing expected certainty for their continuing commitment to HS2, the Conservatives also highlight HS3, the proposed rail network joining northern cities, as a key part of their transport policy. This was no surprise given that it is a term (if not an idea) coined by George Osborne and consistently referred to by Conservative government ministers in parliament, the 2014 Autumn Statement and in the final Budget. The Conservatives are also committed to supporting the progress of Crossrail 2 during the next Parliament.

On franchising, the Labour Party committed to making legislation that would allow a public sector train operator to be able to bid for franchises on a level playing field with private companies. Its manifesto did not detail quite how this would be delivered in practice and there is a question mark over the likelihood of such legislation passing successfully through parliament. The Green Party pledges to bring rail franchises back under public control as they come up for renewal. The Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives pledge to improve consumer rights within the franchise system but have no plans to alter the system itself.

The Labour manifesto made a more vague commitment to developing rail links joining northern cities, and the Liberal Democrats pledged to implement their ‘Transport for the North’ strategy, a plan to boost northern economies by improving transport links between cities. The SNP, meanwhile, pledged to support plans to invest in infrastructure in the north of the UK, including commissioning a high speed rail line linking Glasgow, Edinburgh and the north of England. The south west is also identified by the Conservatives and the Lib Dems as a key area for regional rail development. Certainly, the relatively poor state of the south western network came to the attention of public and policy makers alike when the Dawlish sea wall collapsed in February 2014.

The Labour manifesto also pledges to establish a new National Rail body. This body would be responsible for general oversight of and planning for the railways to improve investment. It would also be designed to allow rail users a greater say in how passenger rail operates. The implications of such a body for Network Rail are uncertain.

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Local Transport The Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Green Party all have similarly detailed commitments about improving local transport services. They all support the devolution of powers to local authorities. The Green Party proposes to reregulate local bus services, the Labour Party proposes more powers for local authorities to regulate bus companies, and the Lib Dems state that they will work with any local authority which wishes to bring forward plans for local regulation of bus services in their area. There is also cross-party agreement about the need for local public transport providers to be able to introduce smart ticketing more widely. This conjoins with parties’ general agreement that the planning and provision of transport services should be increasingly devolved, that metropolitan and regional combined authorities should start to benefit from the kind of transport ecosystem approach enjoyed by London. While most parties accept the principles of regional devolution, the extent to which they seeking to put it in place does, however, vary.

The Labour Party has committed to a freeze of rail fares during 2015/16, and thereafter propose a fare rise cap which would limit future fare rises on all rail routes in the UK. This policy has been costed by Labour at £211m. The Conservatives also pledge to require train companies to improve compensation arrangements for delays. Given that many delays are due to Network Rail’s infrastructure repairs and upgrades, some might wonder whether this would be an unfair burden on train operating companies and if a new mechanism would need to be put in place to facilitate a transfer of compensation from Network Rail to the operator. The Liberal Democrats have pledged to create a new statutory framework designed to ensure that franchises include a stronger focus on customers. They have also pledged to ensure that rail fares rise no faster than inflation over the length of the Parliament. The Green Party pledges to spend £8 billion over the Parliament to deliver an average fare reduction of 10%.

The Conservatives have committed to freeze regulated rail fares for the length of the next Parliament, in line with Retail Price Inflation (RPI). However, as RPI shows consistently higher rates of inflation than the official and more statistically sound measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this freeze could still lead to a real terms increase.

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Roads The Conservative Party has long considered itself the motorists’ friend and investment in the roads is an important part of their transport offering. Singled out for mention include upgrading the M1 and M6 in the Midlands, the M5, A358, A30 and A303 in the south west, and the A11 and A47 in East Anglia. This is part of the Conservatives’ £15 billion commitment to investment in roads to add, for example, 1,300 extra lane miles, and to improve over 60 problem junctions. For Labour, two planned upgrades in Highways England’s fiveyear delivery plan - to the A27 and A358 - would be put on hold to fund the party’s rail fare freeze, with the justification that these projects had not been granted a guaranteed go-ahead anyway so could reasonably be put on hold for the time being. However, Labour has committed to supporting long-term investment in the strategic road network, as well as combatting their perceived neglect of local highways and byways. Plaid Cymru supports the ‘Blue Route’ M4 improvements as an alternative to the ‘Black Route’ proposed by the Welsh Government. They also seek improvements to the A55, the road between Holyhead and Chester, including the construction of a third Menai Bridge.

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Infrastructure and airports Labour has long heralded its proposal to create an independent National Infrastructure Commission, following the recommendations of the Armitt Review, and this was confirmed in the manifesto. This commission would act as a ‘single guiding mind’, making long-term infrastructure investment recommendations to successive governments and monitoring the progress of large infrastructure schemes and Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIPS). On digital infrastructure, the Conservatives pledge to deliver superfast broadband to 95 per cent of the UK by the end of 2017 and to subsidise the cost of installing satellite services in inaccessible areas. The Lib Dems make a similar pledge, only they hope to reach 99.9 per cent of households as well as small businesses.

The Labour and Conservative manifestos are both noncommittal on the issue of airport expansion: both promise to make a decision after the Davies Report makes its final recommendations. This is no great surprise as there are some key Labour-Conservative marginals in proximity to Heathrow and other airports which they will be desperate to win or hold control of, and ruffling feathers at this stage by stating a preference on airport expansion (or lack thereof) would not be an electorally sensible move. The Greens and the Lib Dems are both opposed to the expansion of Heathrow or Gatwick. Ukip also patiently await the outcome of the Davies Report, though they do offer the reopening of Manston Airport as part of the solution to the airport capacity crunch in the south east.

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Housing and construction Labour’s manifesto commits it to building 200,000 homes a year by 2020. This will be achieved by implementing the recommendations of the Lyons Review, and would include building a new generation of garden cities and supporting small and public sector builders. Local authorities will be given ‘use it or lose it’ powers to encourage developers to build on land rather than keeping hold of it. The Conservatives pledge to build 200,000 starter homes, which would be sold at a 20 per cent discount to first time buyers under the age of 40. They have also promised to extend the Right to Buy to tenants in Housing Association properties. Local authorities would be required to sell their most expensive properties to fund the replacement of properties sold under Right to Buy. The Conservatives would also create a Brownfield Fund to help fund building on brownfield sites. A Right to Build would be established which would require councils to allocate land to local people to build or commission their own home.

The Liberal Democrats focus on garden cities, proposing to build at least ten new garden cities, including five major new settlements along a ‘Garden Cities Railway’ between Oxford and Cambridge. Local authorities would be given new powers to ensure development happens on any unused site in which the public sector has an interest. The Lib Dems also propose a new government-backed Housing Investment Bank to provide long-term capital for housebuilding. Their target is to build 300,000 homes a year. Ukip focusses on requiring local authorities to bring empty homes back into use and charging people who leave homes vacant an extra 50 per cent in council tax. It also proposes the removal of barriers to building on brownfield sites with the goal of building one million homes on brownfield sites by 2025. The Green Party proposes increasing the social housing budget to £6 billion a year over the course of the Parliament and removing borrowing caps on local councils with the aim of providing 500,000 social rented homes. They also propose to end Right to Buy. Rather more modestly, the SNP pledge to support the building of 100,000 homes per year.

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Energy Labour’s commitment to freeze energy prices until 2017 was restated in its manifesto. The party also plans to institute carbon reduction targets such as a legal target to remove carbon from the electricity supply by 2030, and a major drive to improve energy efficiency in buildings – including retrofitting 5m homes over the next ten years. The Green Investment Bank would be given additional powers to invest in green business and technology and an Energy Security Board would be established to oversee the UK’s energy requirements and to plan and deliver the energy mix needed to move towards Labour’s carbon targets. The Conservatives pledge to keep energy bills low by encouraging competition in the energy market. They also commit to ensuring that every home and business in the country has a smart meter by 2020. Public subsidies for onshore wind farms would be ended by a Conservative government, and local people would be given the final say on any windfarm application.

The Liberal Democrats pledge to improve energy saving by creating an Electricity Demand Reduction market and new energy efficiency standards, backed up by tax incentives and public investment. They pledge to stimulate a minimum of £100 billion more private investment in low-carbon energy infrastructure by 2020, and set a legally binding decarbonisation target range for 2030, with an indicative target of 60% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Similarly, the Green Party would seek to cut energy demand by two-thirds by 2050, concentrating on insulating homes and instituting energy efficiency standards for new buildings. The Green Party would also invest up to £35 billion over the Parliament in renewables and aims to make the energy system based on mainly electricity from renewables within 20 years.

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Devolution Labour’s flagship devolution policy is the English Devolution Act, which would transfer £30 billion of funding to city and country regions and devolve new powers over economic development, skills, employment, housing, and business support. This would include the devolution of control over local transport. Labour would also allow city and county regions to retain 100% of additional business rates raised from growth in their area. Longer term multi-year budgets would be introduced for local authorities so that they can plan ahead on the basis of need in their area. An English Regional Cabinet Committee, chaired by the prime minister, would be regularly convened and attended by relevant ministers and city and county region leaders. On Scotland, Labour would implement the Smith Agreement in full and add a Home Rule Bill giving extra powers over tax, welfare, and jobs. Rates of income would be set in Scotland and billions of pounds of social security spending would be devolved. Welsh devolution would be put on the same statutory basis as Scottish devolution, and a fair funding settlement would be established.

Manchester, and create a directly elected mayor for Greater Manchester. In Cambridgeshire, Greater Manchester and Cheshire East, a trial would allow these local authorities to retain 100 per cent of any growth in business rates. The Conservatives also pledge to deliver more Growth Deals developed in partnership with local councils, and to devolve further powers to the Mayor of London. The Liberal Democrats propose to deliver ‘Home Rule’ to each of the nations of the UK for a strong, federal UK. They support a Constitutional Convention with the task of producing a full written constitution for the UK to report within two years. The Lib Dems also propose to institute the Smith Agreement on Scottish devolution in full and endorse the St David’s Day announcement on devolution to Wales. They also support the implementation of the Silk Commission Part 1 and 2 proposals on the devolution of further financial powers to Wales. Unsurprisingly, Plaid Cymru also supports the full transfer of powers to the Welsh Government as recommended in the Silk Part 1 and 2 proposals. Plaid also supports a system whereby all powers should be given to Wales except those which the Welsh people have agreed should remain in Westminster.

The Conservatives used their manifesto to re-state their support for mayors in the metropolitan regions and the devolution of local budgets. They would, as has already been announced, legislate to devolve powers and budgets to

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