Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Departement Name name name This project was funded by EU grant FP7-261504 EDENext
First attempt to model the spatial distribution of mosquito species in the Netherlands using VecmapTM Daniela Cianci1 | Adolfo Ibáñez-Justicia2 | Hans Heesterbeek1 | Nienke Hartemink1 1 Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
2 Dutch National Centre for Monitoring of Vectors, Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Environmental data
Field data • Dutch National Centre for Monitoring of Vectors • Cross-sectional study: weekly operated CO2-baited traps, 766 catches • April-October 2010-2013 SPECIES
Modelling • Non-linear discriminant analysis • Random forest
ABSENCE PRESENCE
Culiseta annulata
320
446
Anopheles claviger
637
129
Field data
•MODIS: oMiddle Infra-red oEnhanced vegetation index oNormalised difference vegetation index oDay-time land surface temperature oNight-time land surface temperature
• Logistic regression
•Precipitation (CMORPH, Worldclim) •MODIS Digital elevation model •Population density
Non-linear discriminant analysis
Random forest
Se: 0.376 Sp: 0.892
TFA: temporal Fourier analysis
Logistic regression
Se: 0.520 Sp: 0.694
Se: 0.613 Sp: 0.605
Vecmap™ http://iap.esa.int/projects/ health/vecmap Se: 0.453 Sp: 0.935
Se: 0.610 Sp: 0.560
Se: 0.658 Sp: 0.630
Sensitivity (Se), ability of a model to identify known positive sites. Specificity (Sp), ability of a model to identify known negative sites.
Discussion • The maps show the predicted habitat suitability for Anopheles claviger and Culiseta annulata. • For Culiseta annulata, the predictions are in agreement with the field experience. This species is thought to be more present in the coastal areas of the Netherlands, to have a preference for inundated and agricultural areas and to avoid forested areas. • For Anopheles claviger, there were fewer presence points. The maps suggest that this species may prefer areas with a clay soil, although this has not yet been reported in the literature. Correspondence:
[email protected]
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
David Morley, Els Ducheyne, Veerle Versteirt, Guy Hendrickx, Neil Alexander, William Wint, Eva De Clercq, Sophie Vanwambeke
