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SHORTCASTING OF ONE HOUR MICRO SCALE CLOUD FRACTION TREND THROUGH CLOUD INFRARED RADIOMETER DATA BESNARD T. (1), VENTRE A. (2), BLEUSE M.(2), BERGER L.(3), GILLOTAY D. (4) and EL KAABOUCHI A.(2), (1) ATMOS sarl, Rue Lucien Chaserant, 72650 Saint Saturnin, France. (2) ISMANS, 44 Avenue Frédéric Auguste Bartholdi, 72000 Le Mans, France. (3) Université du Maine, Avenue Olivier Messiaen, 72000 Le Mans France. (4) IASB/BIRA, 3 Avenue Circulaire, 1180 Brussels, Belgium.
Research of the adequate physical phenomenon
1
Thermal infrared Emission 9-14 µm.
Ways of measurement Pyrometers
Validated by previous authors Low cost Limited FOV Possibility considering the cost to gather several sensors on a common turret
Conclusion: SELECTED 2
Instrument designed using this principle
CIR-13 scanning instrument CIR-4V Time serie instrument 3
With motor aspirated shields: ∆𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 ≈ 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭
4
Transfer function Tair vs Tground CIR
5
Cloud altitude versus Tground-Tbrightness
6
Kinetics of cloud cover variations Decrease durations
7
Kinetics of cloud cover variations Stability durations
8
Kinetics of cloud cover variations Growth durations
9
Impact of cloud cover on photovoltaic production Photovoltaic farm field of view → micro scale measurement of cloud cover
10
Cloud cover status at t time
Cloud cover shortcasted at t+1 hour
Production trend
Clear sky
Clear sky
Growth according to growth of solar elevation
Overcast
Overcast
Steady production. No significant impact of solar elevation growth
Clear sky
Overcast
Decrease of photovoltaic production during the coming hour
Overcast
Clear sky
Growth of photovoltaic production during the coming hour
N.B. Difficulty to model broken clouds conditions considering solar spot position versus clouds
Shortcast rate of success
11
Station location
Period of data record
Rate of success (%)
Uccle
2010-2015
71,7
Virton
2008-2015
74,8
Redu
2007-2015
72,9
Mol
2010-2015
72,7
Ostende
2009-2015
73,1
Mont Riggi
2012-2015
71,9
Perspectives
Test present algorithm under different lattitudes and longitudes Add basic pyranometer and/or sunshine duration meter to CIR-4V Approach other mathematical methods to improve shortcast
