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adaptive neuro-fuzzy system, called HyFIS, is pro- .... two-phase learning scheme is developed as .... z in the universe ... R2 1 if my is A2 (DIL2) and 1:2 is B2 (DIN) then ... theory (ART) (Carpenter & Grossberg, 1987, 1988, ..... Figure 4 shows an ..... the fuzzy rule base and the HyFIS model is structured ...... _____; ____.
DUNEDIN

NEW ZEALAND

Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems and their Application for On-line Adaptive Learning of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Jaesoo Kim Nikola Kasabov

The Information Science Discussion Paper Series Number 99/05 March 1999 ISSN 1177-455X

University of Otago Department of Information Science The Department of Information Science is one of six departments that make up the Division of Commerce at the University of Otago. The department offers courses of study leading to a major in Information Science within the BCom, BA and BSc degrees. In addition to undergraduate teaching, the department is also strongly involved in postgraduate research programmes leading to MCom, MA, MSc and PhD degrees. Research projects in spatial information processing, connectionist-based information systems, software engineering and software development, information engineering and database, software metrics, distributed information systems, multimedia information systems and information systems security are particularly well supported. The views expressed in this paper are not necessarily those of the department as a whole. The accuracy of the information presented in this paper is the sole responsibility of the authors. Copyright Copyright remains with the authors. Permission to copy for research or teaching purposes is granted on the condition that the authors and the Series are given due acknowledgment. Reproduction in any form for purposes other than research or teaching is forbidden unless prior written permission has been obtained from the authors. Correspondence This paper represents work to date and may not necessarily form the basis for the authors’ final conclusions relating to this topic. It is likely, however, that the paper will appear in some form in a journal or in conference proceedings in the near future. The authors would be pleased to receive correspondence in connection with any of the issues raised in this paper, or for subsequent publication details. Please write directly to the authors at the address provided below. (Details of final journal/conference publication venues for these papers are also provided on the Department’s publications web pages: http://divcom.otago.ac.nz:800/COM/INFOSCI/Publctns/home.htm). Any other correspondence concerning the Series should be sent to the DPS Coordinator.

Department of Information Science University of Otago P O Box 56 Dunedin NEW ZEALAND Fax: +64 3 479 8311 email: [email protected] www: http://divcom.otago.ac.nz:800/COM/INFOSCI/

Inference

H;/FIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

1

Systems

Inference Systems Neuro-Fuzzy for On-line and Their Applications Adaptive Learning of Nonlinear Dynamical Systemsl

Hybrid

this paper,

Abstract-In to

build

and

learning

power

of

posed

guistic meaning

AND

KIM

JAESOO

adaptive neuro-fuzzy system, called HyFIS,

an

networks

a

hybrid learning

and the

generation from data,

agation learning scheme for

performance

be

can

of

nonlinear

applied to

rule

and revised

to

In

fuzzy system.

order

phase of

incremental

the

illustrate

to

carried

are

er-

rule

the

extensive

The proposed

out.

adaptive learning for

and

backprop-

error

proposedneuro-fuzzy hybrid model,

the purpose

of

dynamical systems.

systems, Neural

Neural

the

tuning by using the

networks, Fuzzy logic,

Science, University

Zealand.

Submitted

fuzzy logic rules

phases:

two

complex dynamics

of Information

introduces

optimally tuned from training

learning, Knowledge acquisition, Adaptation,

*TR-99-65, Department New

the

on-line

Keywords-Neuro-fuzzy structure

neural

of nonlinear

and control

prediction

a

be

can

composed of

phase of

applicability of

studies

.simulation

method

and

scheme

model

Heuristic

architectures.

to the connectionist

proposed

is pro-

fuzzy logic systems and provides lin-

the

into

input-output fuzzy membership functions

amples by

The

models.

optimise fuzzy neural

KASABOV

NIKOLA

Networks,

15

March,

1999.

of

Time

Parameter

and

series.

Otago, PO

Box

56, Dunedin,

H yF IS:

1

INTRODUCTION

Over

the

decade

last

technological

or

with

associated

provides

human

neural

human

networks

Neural

putational operations

data-driven

to

such

processes,

to emulate

certain

in the process

features

of neuronal

mechanisms

networks in

interpolation

derived

acquisition), or explanation

replicate,

on

small

a

Traditional

process.

ently

possess

biological learning

from

numerical

facilities.

ployed

for

numerical The

and

systems

inherent

in

decision

such features.

To circumvent

these

of the

allows

for

com-

a

versatile

the drawbacks

(knowledge

typically formulate

can

in the

decision-making

tools, however, do

inher-

not

obstacles, integrated techniques

systems, fuzzy logic and neural from

certain

adaptation. The input-

networks

experts

network-based

network

trained

models

network

are

being

models,

synergism of integrating Fuzzy Logic (FL) systems and Neural a

functional will

reasoning

system with

provide

a

learning capability suitable

more

the

greater

(FIS)

for

learning capability

deriving

the initial

tool

Considerable

imprecisely-defined complex systems. tegrate

understanding

em-

from

or

examples.

(NNS) into and

reasoning. It

knowledge extraction

or

Human

extracting linguistic information

of

examples. One of

neural

rule-based

between

uncertainties

scale, some

describing underlying causual relationships involved

rules

fuzzy logic

perceptual and linguistic

has evolved

observed

the and

thinking

as

of

theory

capture

distinct

in two

cognition.

systems is the lack of adequate rule

of such

ing

framework

mapping capability of multilayer perceptron

output

The

paradigm

learning and adaptive

biological species.

been made

networks.

and neural

morphology

2

have

advances

significant

cognitive

with

associated

attributes

Systems

mathematical

a

mathematical

a

The

so,

fuzzy logic

areas:

(Zadeh, 1965) provides

the

Inference

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

of neural

rules

of

a

for

and

solving

work

high-level thin1 the

behaviour

has been

networks

fuzzy system

with

Networks

done

to

of in-

fuzzy inference

and tune

the

mem-

HyF IS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

bership functions

(Lin

1992; Yamakawa

et

&

Shaun

Lee, 1991; Berenji 85 Khedkar, 1992; Horikawa

85

al., 1992; Jang, 1993; Hung, 1993; Ishibuchi 1996; Kasabov

Fu, 1995; Kasabov, the

have

neuro-fuzzy systems

potential

paradigms, fuzzy logic and neural

cellent

the

under

problem In this

and

study,

linguistic

illustrated

module,

in

proposed by Wang & the initial

into

Medal

a

membership

an

of

the

The

first

next

An

on-line

section

method

knowledge

from

en-

ex-

descent

two

new

is

developed

input-output

proper

as

knowledge acquisition data

pairs,

fuzzy logic rules

In the second

and

phase, a parameter

learning algorithm

repeated

phases are

suitable

important feature

to

scheme

is

applied

to

tune

linguistic variables.

input~output

model

desired

numerical

HyFIS (Hybrid neural

in the

used to find

fuzzy system.

of the

called

phase, realised

the

combining both

for

framework

(1992), is

Hylillls

functions

incremental,

have

existing expert knowledge about

two-phase learning

a

gradient

adapt and change according in

which

HyFIS architecture,

dynamical systems. the

they

semantically meaningful fuzzy rules, and

deriving fuzzy rules

membership functions

making

data

a common

the

In

learning technique using

thus

of

general

a

of the neural

structure

In the

both

propose

1.

for

method

a

we

System), in Fig.

of

range

and

consideration.

information

Fuzzy Inference

data,

in the form

accommodate

to

wide

a

powerful

learning, good generalisation capabilities,

fast and accurate

explanation facilities

and the ability

single capsule

a

to

of two

benefits

the

capture

suited

well

al., 1994;

et

al., 1997; Pal, 1998). These

et

into

al.,

et

applications (seefor example, Constantin, 1995). These

gineering and scientific

strengths include

to

networks,

them

make

that

features

several

3

Systems

of

for

incremental,

HyFIS

is that

fuzzy predicates,

as

training data.

The

well

on

on-line

it is as

any

new

of

set

learning

of

adaptable where

the

adaptation

fuzzy can

rules

take

can

place

mode.

introduces

the basic concepts of

fuzzy rule based reasoning

Inference

I-IyF IS: Adaptive Neuro-Eizzy

in neural

inference

fuzzy

problem that includes and

principles and

mance

AND

rules

fuzzy

inference

then

system.

B, where

y is

as

Fuzzy if-then

and

y

are

knowledge base

a

rules

and

variables

A and

capture

in

and

uncertainty. Through

fuzzy if-then

ability

rule

can

of

imprecise mode

the

role

a

the in

Box

and

Section

in Section

to

the

decisions

make use

of

that

5.

6.

resides in

expressions of the form

are

employed

human

results

STRUCTURES

by appropriate membership functions.

the

data,

summarised

are

characterised to

perfor-

Mackey~Glass

1970)-are presented

research

part of

the fundamental

are

the

REASONING

FUZZY

Fuzzy

system identification

& Jenkins,

for future

series of the

time

chaotic

KNOWLEDGE-BASED

FUZZY

typical modelling

a

To illustrate

described.

are

a

nonlinear

(Box

and directions

Conclusions

2

data

furnace

gas

discuss

we

proposed HyFlS model, experimental

data-

(Mackey 8/: Glass, 1977),and Jenkins

HyFIS

of the

benchmark

Well-explored

two

on

of

applicability

3,

learning and parameter learning. In Section 4; the

structure

the architecture

the

In Section

systems.

4

Systems

B

are

of

if

that

an

plays

is A

IE

fuzzy

Fuzzy if~then rules

reasoning in

labels

neural

a

an

sets

often

are

essential

of imprecision

environment

linguistic labels and membership functions,

easily capture the spirit of

rule

the

of

thumb

used

by

humans. The

inference

operations

upon

fuzzy

if-then

rules

ing. The general steps of fuzzy reasoning performed in are

as

1.

known

are

as

fuzzy

fuzzy

inference

membership functions

in the

a

reason-

system

follows:

the

Match

part

to

input

obtain

linguistic

label.

the

values

towards

membership

the values

premise

(or compatibility measures)for

each

Hy/FIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

Combine

2.

through

membership values

the

(weight) of

4.

the

on

Aggregate

the

effective

1

control a

in

fuzzy

the

I’

and

processes

inference

literature

into

three

f

or

depicted

are

rules

I

_

a

in

a

crisp

employed,

connectionist

most

rules with well

rules

are

described

the MAX

operation

1

used

functional

main

to

blocks

have been pro-

structure

Lin

& Lee, 1996; Kasabov,

the types of

neuro-fuzzy

types (Jang, 1993): Mamdani

1

_

wnen

2.

Fig.

on

1

11

controuers

fuzzy

1997). Depending

fuzzy

inference

type, Tsukamoto

reason~

systems

can

type, and

certainty factors (CFS)(Shaun& Fu, 1995;

as

generalised fuzzy production rules have These

also

five types of

below.

(Mamdani fuzzy models):

plying

be

dy-

proposed (Lee, 1990).

(Kasabov,1996a)to capture expert knowledge.

fuzzy reasoning

1

crisp

of

purpose

engine should

been

a

fuzzy-rule-based systems, fuzzy

as

(Lee, 1990; Kosko, 1992;

Kasabov, 1996a; Pal, 1998)as

Type

produce

for the

(Lee, 1990; Jang, 1993). The system

Takagi~Sugenotype. Fuzzy

been utilised

to

has been shown to be the most

lf)

(rfuvr/,

types of fuzzy reasoning in

fuzzy if-then

be classified

/17]

memorzes

1996; Jang, Sun, & Mizutani,

ing

have

method

known

also

are ’

assocwtzue

dynamical

Several

posed

of the decision

for defuzziiication

systems ’

neural

each rule

(Zadeh, 1965; Kosko, 1992).

inference

fuzzy

#ring strength

crisp) of

or

all rules

from

defuzzification). Since

is called

methods, the centroid

I’

I

moaeis,

of

these

(either fuzzy

values

qualified consequent

(This step

Among

min)

or

firing strength.

value, several methods

Fuzzy

value

system modelling the output

namic

the

obtain

to

premise part

qualified consequent

depending

output.

the

in

(usually multiplication

operator

each rule.

the

3. Generate

t-norm

specific

a

5

Systems

to

the

The overall

fuzzy output

qualified fuzzy outputs

is derived

(eachof

by which

apis

HyF IS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

equal

of each

rule).

crisp output

based

functions final

example of be

to

the output

have been

proposed

firing strength applied schemes

Various

the overall

on

ar

y, and

,,..,

1, 2

z

are

and the control

variables

n)

,...,

in the

the

are

linguistic

Mamdani

of the

values

linguistic

U ,...,

of

Type

representing the

This

1 in which

is

of each rule s crisp output

average

product

or

the consequent is

required

overall

input linguistic variables.

of

of input

combination is the

weighted

average

variables

This

1

where

ifa:

is

f,(:r,

A,,

_

_

_

_

_

.,

of each

,y)(i

and y is

:

1, 2,

rule s

be

to

on

mono-

with

the

be

weighted

firing strength (the and

premise part)

type of fuzzy if-then

_

a

rule s

of each

output

constant

output.

a

.

,

then

n) is

z

=

rules

fuzzy rule

is

term, and the final The

following

(MISO) Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy

Bi,

.

The

plus

multi-input-single-output

a

based

is the

output

proposed by Takagi & Sugeno (1983). The consequent of function

y, and

as ,...,

used in this scheme must

by the

match

(Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models):

3

=

functions.

membership

output

induced

degrees of

of the

minimum

state

Bi, and O,

,...,

simplihed method

a

(Tsukamoto, 1979). The

functions

monotonic

R.,

can

process

variables

linguistic

tonic; that is, the output membership functions

of

model

fuzzy

V, and W, respectively.

(Tsukarnoto fuzzy models):

2

variables

variable, respectively, and A,

of discourse

universe

fuzzy reasoning

Type

the

to choose

(Mamdani, 1975). An

fuzzy output

multi~input-single-output (MISO)

a

membership

ifazis/1,,...,andyisB,,thenz==C’i,

:

where

Type

6

Systems

expressed as:

R.,

z

of

to tl1e minimum

Inference

is

an

was

rule

is

a

linear

a

output

example

model:

f,(:s,...,y),

afunction

of the

input variables

rr,

_

_

_

,y

Hy/FIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

Type

4

with

rules

(Fuzzy

tainty degree as

R4

ifx

:

where

Type

is

applications

Lee

(1996)and

of this

Pal

that

capture

and

exemplar fuzzy

shown

that

uncertainty

if :cl is

A1 (DIN)

R2

1

if my is

A2

are

used;

(1) confidence factors

coefficients

relative

contain

(2) relative

part;

in the

elements

antecedent

(3)

part;

(Kasabov,l996a).

of the conclusion

_.factors

or

degrees

degreesof importance (DI)

and 3:2 is

Two

of the

parts

(DIL2) and

1:2 is

B1

(DIQJ) then

y is

C1 (0171);

B2

(DIN)

then

y is

C2 (CF2).

type of fuzzy rules is used in the FuNN

structure,

In this

&

are

below.

:

FuNN

(1995),Lin

type of fuzzy rules several

to the conclusion

and certainty

R1

This

& Fu

Shann

see

interpretations

this

In

rules):

(4) sensitivity factor

rules

elements

condition

cer~

(1998).

of importance (DI) of the condition tolerance

a

weight), e.g.:

For different

ith rule.

type of fuzzy rules,

certainty factors (CFS) attached

Noise

called

contains

(01%),

(Generalised production

parameters

rule

fuzzy

a

(CF) (or also

certainty factor of the

and

5

y is B

A, then

type of

This

certainty factor

a

is the

CE

CFS):

7

Systems

rules into

to insert

this

model, and

model

to extract

(Kasabov, l996a; 1996b; 1996c; Kasabov study,

we

have constructed

functionally equivalent

to

the

Type~4

a

of

et

to

rules

the

from

a

FuNN trained

al., 1997).

neuro-fuzzy inference

fuzzy inference

define

systems

system which

(FIS).

is

HyF IS: Adaptive Neuro~Fuzzy Inference

IN

LEARNING

3

Generally, FIS require

of

tions

is

learning

the

the

terms,

Once

needs

with

such

membership functions,

is to

neuro-fuzzy system

There

several

are

be combined

in

and structure

of

numerical

and output

fuzzy

output In the

space,

numerical

following

of the

of two

and

Hence, the

structure

and

learning

we

in the next

to

main

find

of

purpose

and

tune

a

the

parameter

learning

learning, data

and

one

we

the

of the most the

mean

shall discuss

some

learning

important aspects of

extraction

of

fuzzy logic

a

fuzzy logic

rule

rules

of the

in the

fuzzy logic rules

tuning of fuzzy partitions

construction

of

can

FIS

has been

identification

Most

tuning

e.g.,

subsections.

procedures: 1) fuzzy partitioning

2)

FIS

widths, and slopes,

learning techniques

for

Generally,

examples. cases:

rules

training

following,

that

described

are

structure

spaces.

consists

membership func-

structure

centres,

as

fuzzy

neuro-fuzzy systems.

learning

design of FIS. By from

the

of the

neuro-fuzzy system. Existing techniques for parameter

a

learning

Identification

data

ways

Structure

3.1

apply neural of

structure

the structure

perform parametric tuning,

to

and para-

learning,

satisfactory

a

tuning the weights of the fuzzy logic rules.

parameters and

INFER-

structural

linguistic variables,

rules.

fuzzy

fuzzy model

the

of the

parameters

FUZZY

is concerned

system, i.e., input and output

obtained,

and

NEURAL

major types of learning:

two

Structural

learning.

inference

8

SYSTEMS

EN CE

metric

Systems

of the

from

input

for each

input

numerical

space

and/or

fuzzy subspace.

techniques for knowledge acquisitions from

existing techniques

can

be divided

into

either

of the

Inference

H5/FIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

learning, such

vised

adaptive

vector

put

theory (ART) (Carpenter & Grossberg, 1987, 1988,

resonance

1990), which

Supervised learning

a

on

learning rules

fuzzy logic

in order

teacher

to

commonly used

specify the desired

the

determine

to

in-

find clusters

to

(Seealso Kosko, 1992).

gradient-descent method

a

in the

regularities

capture

(Rurnelhart et al., vectors,

output

and

& Zipser, 1985; Kosko,

learning (Grossberg,1976; Ruinelhart also

1990),are

of

presence

based

1986), which requires competitive

for structure

is suitable

space,

that

models

internal

construct

indicating the

of data

(SCMS)(Kohonen,1989) and

self-organising maps

as

(NN) techniques. Unsuper-

network

through neural

Fuzzy rule extinction

1

9

Systems

fuzzy

rules

(Kosko, 1992;

Kasabov, 1996a). 2.

Fuzzy rule

by using fuzzy techniques. A simple method

extraction

(1992)for generating fuzzy

by Wang & Mendal output

training data is

a

build-up procedure.

ene»pass

any

real, continuous

SOMS

When

patterns sion are

are

Pal

et

the

rules

reduction ol.

for rule

a

decision

was

the decision scheme

that

(1998)proposed

backpropagation

a

that

result, achieving the

vector

quantisation

borders,

which

of the

clusters

learned

can

necessary

input deci-

(LVQ) techniques provide fine-tuning

process.

combines

proposed by

and combination

the

extraction,

near-optimal

the time-

set.

compact

Learning

and enhance

learning fuzzy rule

a

on

It avoids

input-

systems is capable of approximating

rule

diiiicult.

hybrid learning

for

function

used

are

becomes

used to refine

A

to

substantially overlapped. As

accuracy

of SOMS

error

building fuzzy

approach

numerical

It has been also shown

for NNS.

consuming training procedures typical this

rules from

proposed

SOM

Lin and Lee

were

also

and competitive

learning for

(1991& 1996). Some

provided. Shann

et al.

learning procedure for acquiring fuzzy

(EBP) learning algorithm,

which

is based

on

heuristics

(1995) and rules a

using

gradient

HVF IS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

search

descent

is

phase

is executed

process

base with

Here, by parameter learning parameters of fuzzy rules in ter

We

a

backpropagation training,

error

the initial

for

learning

FIS

FIS. There

functions

1992), which least square K alman

single

a

(LSE) (Jang, 1993),which

estimator

The

filter algorithm.

parameter

system is the supervised learning There of the

are

different

one,

parameter

fuzzy logic rules:

parameter

1.

learning

Parameter on

of these

learning

the l\/lamdani

function

is

two

in

the

compatible

method

rules.

rules

Here several

types of fuzzy rules

rules

(Type 1).

In this

usually bell shaped, triangular,

and

the

output. the

by

its output

centroid

membership

of the responses

A defuzzification

maximum

the

on

and

2)

referenced:

are

(MISO) systems the output

case

is based

membership

to

its

is

firing strength,

generate the appropriate

taking

membership degree as the crisp

of each rule

response

weighted by

is calculated

procedure involves

types

trapezoidal (Lin & Lee, 1991;

or

function

HyFIS

neuro-fuzzy techniques for

Berenji KL Khedkar, 1992; Kosko, 1992). The fuzzy defined

in the

singleton consequents;

multi-input-single-output

fuzzy

adopted

extended

an

backpropagation algorithm.

error

with

approximate

with

learning techniques depending

1) fuzzy logic

Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy

of the output;

is

learning

with

backprop-

error

learning (Berenji & Khedkar,

evaluation

scalar

for parame-

al., 1992; Hung, 1993; Shann

et

al., 1997); reinforcement

requires only

and other

learning methods

several

are

agation algorithm) (Lin & Lee, 1991; Horikawa et

a

one.

learning: gradient-descent-based learning algorithms (e.g.,the

& Fu, 1995; Kasabov

a

fuzzy rules and obtain

tuning of membership

mean

second

training phase, and the

a

redundant

delete

to

size than

smaller

much

Parameter

3.2

phase is

rule-pruning phase, i.e., after the

a

rule-pruning rule

the first

in the network:

10

Systems

the output

response

value

of each rule

with

and

HYFISI Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

then

these

aggregating

1990). Almost

all existing

this

type of rules

deal with

other

ter

be

In

the

rule

approach

a

input variables, instead

of the

then

weighted

final

obtain

the

gleton

when

a

and summed

(SeeType

which

according

the

the

to

2), it

3 in Section

either

be viewed

becomes

special

dani

fuzzy model (Type 1), in which each rule s consequent

a

fuzzy singleton,

in which

or

a

centre

at

optimising

the

In the

HyFIS

model

presented from

knowledge acquisition module

the

neural

network

structure

in the next

is

in

Fig.

of the Mamis

specified by

membership

(Type 2),

function

of

but

a

with

it combines

estimation

op-

(Jang,

of the

the

fuzzy logic approach

to

pairs is used and implemented in

1. After

established,

adjust the parameters

section,

data

input-output

the

to

sin~

zero-order

fuzzy model

least squares

to

1997

generating fuzzy rules

performed

re-

That

zero.

by gradient descent with

premise membership functions

timising the consequent equations by linear &

fuzzy

a

type of fuzzy rules is dealt

This

the constant.

a

The

a

case

neuro-fuzzy systems for FIS parameter learning,

in several

1993

a

of the Tsukamoto

consequent is specified by

each rule s

step function

special case

of each

firing strengths

fuzzy model,

as

constant.

response

TSK

can

parame-

simple

a

consequent part become

in the

coefficients

constant

of

consequent of each rule becomes

The

output.

all the is

is, when f

Heesche,

input variables.

of the

of the values

combination

linear are

sponses

8;

let the consequent

to

Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy rule format

is

of FIS

tuning

(Horikawaet al., 1992; Hauptmann,

parameter learning is

in

function

linear

a

for parameter

neuro-fuzzy models

(Lee,

appropriate output

1996a).

1995; Kasabov 2. The

the

produce

to

responses

11

Systems

and

a

set of

the

membership

fuzzy rules

second functions

is

extracted,

learning phase optimally.

is

H yF IS:

4

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

HYBRID

HyFIS: EN CE

The

second

phase

achieve

to

is that

iI1

created

easy

for this

second

data

the

facilitates

architecture

f‘uzzy rules, In

sources.

A brief

the functions

The

thus

The

allows

it

of five

layers.

the

hidden

Its

layer

from

the

for

The

first

phase

is the

input

states

and output

layers,

there

are

This

eliminates

which

is difiicult

for

nodes the

an

model

in the

become

available

available,

data

HyF IS

descent

gradient

rule

a

and

uses

a

is

In the

multi-layered

learning algorithm.

approximate reasoning,

as

The

well

for the combination

of both

numerical

data

synergistic benefits

associated

with

two

in

the

in

of the

in the

HyF‘IS

is shown

in

a

the

dynamically changing

proposed HyFIS system

following

control

subsections.

a

multilayer

neural

3 and the system

input and output

of

as

a

understand

membership functions normal or

to

feedforward

modify.

networkhas

nodes

/decision signals respectively,

functioning

to

is

Fig. the

structure,

disadvantage

observer

data

new

approach

I-IyFIS

model

connectionist

as

this

fuzzy rule base (See Fig. 1).

presented

topology

tuning membership func-

pair becomes

of the structure is

for

adaptive learning

of

In this

rules.

the

to

a

on

introduction

proposed neuro-fuzzy

data

new

neuro-fuzzy

Architecture

fuzzy system.

a

based

rule base

fuzzy

It allows

of each

based

sent

When

producing

addition,

environment.

4.1

INFER-

performance. Gne advantage of

the

learning

knowledge acquisition.

and

phases.

learning phase

pair and added

network

(MLP)

of

level

modify

to

learning phase,

perceptron

and

FUZZY

of two

consists

HyFIS

parameter

desired

a

it is very

is the

(Wang & Mendal, 1992).

as

NEURAL

learning (rule finding) phase using the knowledge acquisition module.

structure

tions

12

SYSTEM

learning procedure

The

Systems

total

a

repre~

and in the

(MFS) and

multi-layer

net

HyFIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

Nodes the

in

functions

(MF)

functions

adapted through in

variables

used

is

the 3

Fig.

granularity

3 is

layer

between

In

the

that

ters

and

that 4

in

13

transmit

directly

nodes that

term

are

in which

the The

process.

value

mean

such

But

a

input/ output

sometimes

more

(ZE), small negative (SN), and large negative (LN). Each

node

node and

represents

3 and 4 represent to

detailed

rule.

fuzzy

one

The

degree controlled

certain

a

as

connection

weights

certainty factors (CFS) of the associated

description and

functionalities, the simulation

is

placed

on

by how

the

weight

rules,

values.

adapt the

to

the

of the components of the

philosophy

behind

examples presented in defined

in

this

this

parame-

MF; and

semantic

follows.

respectively.

1:

ables

Nodes as

the next

use

the width

of the MF.

indices

t,j,k,

from

the nth

layer

crisp values.

layer,

the

one

are

The

and

given. are

2

U2

e’

determines

output

in

=

by

and functions

are

struc-

all the MF used

paper,

is determined

meaning We

The

0

rnodel s

Eq. (1):

Gaussian(m;c,0)

=

HyFlS

architecture

function

membership

of the

Layer

is

0

represent the bell-shaped MF for each node in layer 2 and 4 through

Gaussian

as

the variance

small

;tA(w)

are

membership Bell-shaped

for the

and small

a:-c

The

as

to

large positive (LP),

applications

some

bell-shaped (Gaussian)functions

centre

act

and

c

defined

fuzzy sets

(M),

following, special emphasis

Throughout

A

input signals

input / output fuzzy linguistic variables.

large (L), medium

is activated

learning and ture

rule

layers

i.e., each rule

the

here,

required

a

2 and

layer

learning

are

positive (SP), zero of

in

to express

are

nodes

input

are

layer. Nodes

next

MF

1

layer

Systems

c

(1)

,

and

0’:

of the

nodes

in the

l for

nodes

in

node of

layer

will

m

c

represents

proposed

the

network

layers 2, 3, 4, and 5, be denoted

by ygh

input nodes that represent input linguistic vari~ nodes in this

membership function

layer only layer.

transmit

Each

node

input values

to

is connected

to

Inference

HyFIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

of

nodes

those

only

sponding linguistic Layer

membership functions

as

the

with

two

(or variance, 0). Initially

width

a

unity and the membership functions

although

space,

corre-

if any

This

is

connection

(or

centre

this

weight

be used

can

is

layer

the

over

c)

mean,

in this

weight

is available

layer

implemented using

spaced equally

are

terms

fed to the

are

parameters,

knowledge

expert

represent the

to

The input values

membership degrees.

membership functions

Gaussian and

act

layer

calculates

2 which

of

variable.

respective linguistic variables.

of the

the

in this

Nodes

2:

represent the linguistic values

2 which

layer

14

Systems

for

initialisation. The

function

output

to the

node is the

of this

:n-c

yf

the

0

and

c are

label.

linguistic

on

particular MF, membership

Layer

3:

Each

weights AND

with

node in

of the

links

layer are

3 represents set

all the nodes

of the

layer

I j is the set of indices in

layer 3, and yf

a

possible IF-part

unity. The nodes

to

are

=

j

layer

of

membership

referred

are

centre

determined

and maximum

fy?

node

in this

forms

change,

the

as

to

for

as

that

adjacent

centres.

the functions

where

various

input weight represents the

the minimum

operation. Thus,

Hence

exhibiting

Parameters

The

precondition parameters.

(2)

As the values of these parameters

thus

vary,

2

@"£T L,

=

the parameters.

bell-shaped functions

functions

belongs

function:

given membership

where

the input

which

degree to

in this

as

in this

layer form

a

fuzzy rule. The

a

layer perform

fuzzy

the

rule base.

follows.

(3)

1;1Ei§(1/fl,

of the nodes

is the

of

in

layer

2 that

are

output of node i in layer 2.

connected

to

H

yFIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

A node

4:

Layer

field

the

of this

rules

4

layer of the

consequences

fuzzy quantisation

of

space

lc in

layer

4 to nodes

factors (CFS)of values.

The

the

initial

The

functions

in

connection

of this

layer

=

the

to

is the

Ik

node

k in

of the rules

weight Layer

5:

layer

inference

connectionist

Each

of indices

set

4.

output method

fuzzy

3 represent rules

The

links

define

the

from

the

fuzzy label activation is

nodes

of the node

supported by

of the links

connecting

conceptually the certainty

when

inferring fuzzy output

of the links

between

layer

3 and

1§g}§(y§1v§;),

of the

engine,

which

to

4

a

nodes these

in

3 that

the the

connected

are

connecting links

avoids

certain

layer

(4)

function

rule-matching

degree represented by

the

as

a

process.

squared

values.

It represents the output

attached

The

integrate

[~1,+l].

Actually

is activated

to

rule

expressed as follows:

are

1/fi where

a

weights wkj

weights

in the interval

layer

layer

membership function

connection

j

In this

represents

corresponding fuzzy

randomly selected

are

this

fuzzy

a

linguistic variables.

variable.

output

an

which

to

node

a

of

fuzzy OR operation

output

same

a11d

fuzzy rules together. The

nodes

the

fully connected.

are

rules

represents the degree all

the

to

15

possible THEN-part

a

layer performs

leading

3 and

layer

4 represents

layer

each node

and

of

in

Systems

to

them

signal. was

centroid

act

Here

used.

as

the

The

constitutes

a

variables

defuzzifier.

Centre

These

A node in this

layer computes

nodes and links a

crisp

of Gravity (COG) or Centre of Area (COA) of

centre

of the system.

defuzziiication

area

the output

signal,

can

scheme, in which the

be simulated

by

E ’!/2Cfu¢Cu¢ :ff

=

lcEI1 -_-

2 Q/za k ‹I;,

5l

Inference

HyF1S: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

I; is the

where

of the nodes

of indices

set

the node l in layer 5 and clk and oy,

the lc in

layer

4. The

nodes

layer

4

in

layer

layer

3 and

connected

are

to

and width

the centroid

linguistic value represented by

output

from

links

Weights of the

4 which

the nodes

unity. Thus the only learnable

are

wkjs between

are

in

respectively

are

of the

membership function

of the

16

Systems

in

layer

network

in the

weights

5 to the

4.

layer

for

Algorithms

HyFIS

4.2

Hybrid

Learning

In this

section

we

present the two-phase hybrid learning scheme for the proposed

HyFIS

model.

In

In

the rules.

learning

phase one, rule finding phase, fuzzy techniques

phase two,

is used to

a

supervised learning

for desired

MF

the

optimally adjust

learning scheme, training data and the desired i.e., the initial be

provided

A

4.2.1

The

size of the term

from

the outside

general learning

of each

set

based

scheme

used to iind

gradient

on

of

descent the

To initiate

outputs.

guessedcoarse

or

are

fuzzy partition,

input /output linguistic variable,

must

world.

for

scheme

training of the HyFlS

adaptive, incremental

the

following procedure outlines

HyFIS

model:

Step

0:

the

lnitialise

neuro-fuzzy model the

scheme, training data and i.e., the size of the

given. selected

Step

1:

The in

Extract

initial

set

term

weights

desired of each

of the links

in the or

HyFIS.

guessedcoarse

input-output between

the

To initiate

of

learning

fuzzy partition,

linguistic variables,

layer

3 and 4

are

are

randomly

[-1,4-ll. a

plrase learning

set

of

method

fuzzy as

rules

from

described

input-output in the

next

data

section.

set

using

the first-

Ib/FIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

fuzzy

in the network

the network

3:

Step

incoming

Rule

4.2.2

We consider

The

but

item, data

on

use

of desired

clarify

following

Step

1:

of

three

Divide

if not, then

set

be

not

well

as

add this rule to

on

the

on

old

on

as

performed

depending

rules from numerical

fuzzy

a

set of

fuzzy

data

if

each individual

frequency

of the

proposed by Wang 85 Mendal

y is the

It is

output.

the basic

ideas

input/ output

of the

Neuro-Fuzzy

this method, suppose

(:c§,;v§;y1), (mf,wg;yz)

,...

cases.

one-output

case

A set

This

are

given

where :rl and

this method

of desired

is chosen

methodology.

we

,

to extend

straightforward

(MIMO)

of the

the desired

the structure

To illustrate

environment.

input/output training

rules from

rules to determine

pairs, the simple two-input

and to

already represented

1.

general multi-input-multi-output data

data

of data

input / output data pairs:

inputs and

are

neuro-

Phase

these

system in the HyFIS

rg

set

a

here is to generate

pairs and then

set

the

on

simple and straightforward method

a

is

the

into

stream.

Finding

task

if the rule

update it;

This step may

if necessary.

(1992)for generating fuzzy

a

learning

Repeat from Step

4:

Step

rules

fuzzy

new

structure.

or

data

new

if yes, then

structure,

Apply parameter

available

add

fuzzy rule, check

for each

structure:

if necessary,

and

rules

Update the

2:

Step

17

Systems

input-output

in order

approach

to

to

emphasise

consists

ofthe

steps:

the

membership

input and output functions

the

initial

values

the

membership

associated

of parameters functions

space

are

are

into

fuzzy regions.

with

each

input

set

in such

a

and

way

equally spaced along

After

the number

output

that

the range

are

fixed,

the centres of each

of

input

HyFIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

and

variable.

output

given lind

value

a

inference

system

of the

one

membership functions

that

such

do

they

and

overlap

So,

input-output

linguistic

For

assume

instance,

has to choose

one

Step

Generate

2:

of

given

the

fuzzy

data

following

divided

4 shows

five

into

set

from

rules

in different

pairs

first

the

of desired

example where

an

regions. Of

for each data

degree

0.2 in

regions.

For

rnaximum

Fig.

degree:

4 is

data

input/ output data,

o

other

==>

RI: if

example, :ri

Z E. ior

Finally,

in

obtain

one

the we

-

ZE,

then

degrees given

are

(6)

--

4 has

ZE

1 in

4 is

degree 0.8

and

smaller to

a

is the in

SP,

degrees

region

with

assigned to SP and 1:3in

rule

y is

(y)

one

from

one

pair of desired

example,

is SP and :rg is

of

possible.

are

in SP),a:§(0.6in ZE), y1(0.6in ZE)], [r1:}(0.8 :cl

interval

pairs:

m{ in Fig.

Fig.

fuzzy

a

divisions

suppose

inputs and third

(:r1,a:2)are

pair. For example,

for

way

[-1,1],

are

the domain

regions. Second, assign at§,x§,and yi

assigned to

yi) (:1:},a:§;

and y

course,

example,

LP, Similarly, mghas degree

in all other

a

corresponding

given data pairs. First, determine

input-output

numbers

two

output

than

of the

of :r1,:1:2,

(oe, -0.2, 02), (o.4,0; o.4), where

in such

regions and other shapes of membership functions

the domain

for the

regions and assign each region

N

into

Figure

are

intervals

the domain

interval

membership function. of 331, 1132,and y

the intervals

space

fuzzy

overlap from

linguistic variable

the entire

cover

the

variables.

that

each domain

Divide

also

and suiiicient

always

can

manner,

the that

means

we

range,

In this

e.

satisfy

0.5, which

=

transitions

linguistic values of each input and output that

e

operating

,uA(x) 2

smooth

another.

to

in the

inputs

provide

can

label

linguistic

one

of

rr

linguistic label A

a

these

Moreover,

6-completeness (Lee, 1990) with

of

condition

18

Systems

ZE;

H 5/FIS:

Inference

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

19

Systems

y2) ==> [:1cf(0.8inSP),z§(1 in ZE),y2(0.8 in SP)], (w¥,:c§; s

Step

3:

RQ: if

Assign

rules

a

of

number

the

the

pairs

and

rules,

other a

The

is activated

to

if xl

is defined

is A and :ng is

B, then

example, R1

has

=

R2 has

a

delete

has

that

with

y is C

assign

maximum

a

rules

redundant rules

that

are

the

for

weight

rule.

a

degree to

each rule:

The

(wi),

(7)

Ha(931)Mb(?U2lM¢(?Jl-

=

MSPUU1)/1zE(1F2lMzE(Z/l 0.8

>


0 is the

learning rate,

w

(fl

U(-),

r

and the chain

GE __ _

(9)

rule is described

as

follows:

Q 33/,Q awkj

awkj =

?§ @ 6.9;

(10)

_

ay? ay/dlawkj To illustrate

putations

of

%,

the

learning rule

for each parameter,

layer by layer, starting

at

we

the output

shall

describe

nodes, and

we

the will

com-

use

HyFIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

parameters

for these

5:

From

widths

and

(0)

adjustable

as

below:

derived

are

Eq.(8) we get, 5E

(dz-l/fl

%§= Hence, the

(c)

centres

computations.

learning rules of each layer

The

Layer

with

membership functions

Gaussian

21

Systems

error

to

be

to the

propagated

(11) is

preceding layer

6E

(12)

5i5= -5gLg=dz-3/?_3.___L._ Gy, 30]/,,

=

80%

as:

(13)

obtain: (y;y;7’§"3’), we

=

4

Zykfffzk’

5

ay:

is derived

0y5

6E

3E ..._

Recalling Eq.(5), yf

(width, 0)

rule of the variance

Using Eq. (10), the adaptive

4

ylk: Clk

k’

u

Z

yzk ZZ?/k’Ulk’Clk’

_

gg

g

2

0m

E

4

?/M71/C’

kr

(Clkyk’0’lk’)y;¢f0zk’Czk’>) (14) 4

yzk

,

,

kf

kf

__

4

_

g

__

_

2

E vim kv

Here

k is the index

layer

5.

of

a

node

Using Eq.(11), and (14), We UE __ in

can

in

layer

write

4 which

is connected

to

a

node

l in

Eq.(13) as

_Eg dyf 59? 301k

aalk

yzk =

*(d¢~y?)

(Zyl/;fUlk’)"" (Zyl/;fUlk’) y;fUlk’Clk’>> y;fUlk’Clk’>> ~~;e ""

»

E yli;’Ul/5’ ki

(15)

HyFISZ Adaptive Neuro~Fuzzy

Hence, the

is

parameter

0

Inference

) (ClkyI :’0 2klkyz’U’lIc’Clk’)) k

U’gk(t)l"

=

22

updated by yut

’l’ 1) 0‘g}¢(t

Systems

~-*W

.

4

Z

yldglk’

kr

Similarly, the adaptive rule of the 3E

6E

is derived

as

63/f

I

5522

(centre, c)

mean

55% y

0

-2/?l*iL£’;~ Um?/pc

-(dz

=

(17)

Z lc

Hence, the

is

parameter

C

updated by ,

1)

Clk(t+

C;k(t)"l’

=

Z

4

Um?/k

k

The

4:

Layer

desired be

for nodes

error

in this

of each node.

outputs and activation

computed

and

Hence

propagated. 54

From

is calculated

layer

0E

Hyii

signals

error

of

need to

0y5

( 19 )

52/?ay/3

Eq.(8) we get, 6E

Eq. (5)

,

=

--

From

fuzzification

_-_+

=

__

the

on

have

we

5E =

Only

based

~~

UI

2

-

get,

We

(ClkL/il;/Ulm) y)i’0’lk’Clk )) (21)

Uzk

6?/5 z

_

kf

=

fe

2

as

.

4D2

4

it//efflk’ kr

Hence, using Eqs. (11)

and

(21), we

D2 the

write

can

signal of Eq. (19)

error

as

out

62 (dz if/F) =

~

(Clk (Zyifvue) (2yiffvutfci/¢f)) (22) gk -

k

H

-

Z H2101/e ki

Ii)/FIS! Adaptive Neuro~Fuzzy Inference

Layer

As in

3:

the

layer 4,

signal

error

signal

error

6?is

need to be

parameters

no

needs

be

to

derived

Systems

computed

If input

rameters

should

from

previous layer,

the

be increased

Using (10) and (2),

directly proportional

because

@

the

_

the to

is caused

error

(23)

the

by

ci is derived

corresponding

as

propagated

these

fl QQ1/2___2( 53/3

parameters.

in the

U?

following:

(24)

,

§§£9_?i

_ _

(25)

_(25) (25)(25) Eq. (23) 6E =

_-T

6,3 and from

error

(3)

25. from

pa-

ay? 5% =

where

The

@%

_

3%

Where from

only

as

adaptive rule of

the

and

propagated backwards.

fuzzy segment, then

lie in the

values

and

layer,

as ay; HyØ5".u§ 3?/ii, HyØ5".u§3?/ii, ag.

=

2:

in this

adjusted

following:

as

as

Layer

23

53 J

we

Eq.(3) and Eq. (23) r

=

Arg

gIا§1(@/3),

(27)

Then, 3E

.

=

z

Q

So the

mean

of the

=

r

(28)

input membership functions 0E

an

’L

otherwise.

0

=

.

f

+

ii

=

Cm

+

2

-i

can

be

updated by

Iii/FIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

Similarly, using (10) and (2),

QE

the

24

Systems

adaptive

rule

of

of

is derived

as

i9§?E-ti

_

_

80;

80]

22(;v c,)2 yi 31/3 U? 3E

M

--

(30)



(oi)

Hence, the variance

0i(f+1)

all fields eas

TO

dynamical

of science.

of economic

in

can

time-series

in all natural

occur

This

Time

uses

ins gas furnace

combustion

data

process

prediction

and

in the

most

where

of the

ar-

weather

increased as

in-

chaos

is present.

nonlinearity

exciting topics

applications

The

discovery of chaos,

the

living systems

of the two

to

in nonlinear

systems

proposed methodology.

System Identification

a

techniques that permits

based

on

input-output

a

methane-air

mixture.

to

data.

of the

build

mathematical

In this subsection

using the well-known

(Box & Jenkins, 1970). This of

permeates

be found

can

fields.

lots of other

system identification,

to nonlinear

which

generic problem

Box-

Series

dynamical systems

HyFIS

a

of time-series

1-Nonlinear

System identification

the

one

describes

section

Jenkins

els of

is

systems is also related

Example

5.1

DYNAM-

planning, inventory and production control,

and business

Hence, chaos is currently research.

eu

EAR

N ON LIN

modelling

Applications

nonlinear

readily

,2

-

+

forecasting, signal processing, control, and terest

2

become

now

SYSTEMS

ICAL

Non~1inear

8E

me

=

APPLICATION

5

membership functions

of the input

data

During

set

the

was

modwe

apply

Box and Jenkrecorded

process

the

from

a

portion

Inference

HYFISSAdaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

of methane

was

time~series

data

u(t),

rate,

furnace

randomly changed, keeping for

set

We

output.

y(t) given

tration

the

for the

defined in this

each

that

the

(32)

variables

S

are

for the

the

for

CO2

steps before

time

5 shows

HyFIS

consists

schematic

a

4)

-

for

diagram the

where

case

concen-

u(t

fuzzy

(small), M (medium);and

desired

Each domain

L

sets

(large)

In this

alone

nor

nosis

to

a

interval

-

was

4), y(t

divided

that

pairs

into

we

five

converted

were

1); y(t)]

-

specinc problem,

We used the three~step on

292

examples.

pairs and their

fuzzy logic

Fig.

of

data

which

reduces

the MF shown

use

linguistic labels,

and

by VS (very small), S (small), M (medium), L (large),

base, based

input-output the

[u(t), y(t)]

of data points to 292. For this

rule

fuzzy

in

is

identification

an

1). Fig.

-

training data point

(very large).

and VL

as

y(t

of 296

data

fuzzy regions denoted

After

the

as

11/(If),

portion from four

gas

set consists

(ci) in Fig. 8.

the

provide

using

input-output

original

the number

the

y(t),

gas,

case.

The

in

is to

the methane

of identification

process

a

beforehand.

be determined

CO2 concentration

last

and the

model

HyFIS

of the

task

The

is

Design

Experimental

5.1.1

so

and T2 should

T1

=>

-

-

delays

in outlet

the task of the model

that

assume

This

rate.

(the inlet methane)

gas flow

with

process

(UU ri), 1/(if nl) where

gas flow

constant

a

input, and CO2 concentration

the furnace

as

gas furnace

a

25

Systems

rules

have been

of Section

procedure

The

fuzzy

4 to

the

generated from

rules

corresponding degrees are given found, the network

generate

structure

in Table

1.

is established

6.

consider

the situation

desired

input~output

pairs alone

desired

accuracy.

example

we

A combination

where are

of

neither

suflicient

linguistic fuzzy rules for

a

linguistic fuzzy

successful rules

and

prog-

fuzzy

HVF IS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

rules

generated from

the desired

two

rules.

guistic them

to

there

are

To

do this

rules

no

remaining

92 data

1. In this

illustrated

the

used to construct rule

base,

is established

applied;

200

data

and

was

in

Fig.

as

The

(o).

chosen

network

fuzzy the

to

200 data

and

3)

the

only the

this

fuzzy

rule

level of

to

tune

the

as

the

there

are

only with

HyFIS model is

combined

rules for the >¢=in Table

by

the connections

data

of the

were

by this fuzzy

of the

rule

HyFlS

learning phase

fuzzy rule

bases of 1

and the initialised

optimally

the data 92

the

structure

the

model

remaining

examples

is structured

structure,

of the cases,

the

connections

no

applied; 2)

pairs and the

network

parameters

except that

1

linguistic

1) 200 training

base which

training set,

Table

as

base, and the parameter

the whole

lin-

5.

learning phase

rule

from

comes

rules marked

two

is showed

cases:

performance. For each

points

same

rule base of

only

base and the

fuzzy

desired

=4Withthesefuzzylogicrulesthe With these fuzzy logic rules the

fuzzy

have

from

comes

pairs randomly and used

6 except that

from 92 data

is used to establish

is trained

three

rule

rules

is the

structure

parameter

linguistic with

cases

desired

by

following

the

base of selected

network

outlined

by the empty circles (0) in Fig.

We simulated

2

pairs

the whole

case,

to

of accuracy.

part of the information

selected

firstly

we

the empty circles

by

and

second

is established

illustrated

is

the

in the Table

structure

level

part of the information

generate the fuzzy rule base, which

network

fuzzy

the desired

to

the first

where

cases

pairs, whereas

input-output

pairs is, however, suflicient

Results

Experimental

We consider

26

data

input-output

successfully predict the level of CO2

5.1.2

Systems

were

points

to

partitioned the

as

achieve

test

set

a

in

for

validation.

The 200

experiment

epochs

of

results

training,

root

for the mean

first square

two errors

cases

are

shown

in

of RM SE¢1ain

Fig. =

7.

0.0382

After and

Ii)/FIS! Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

RM

SE,est

are

shown

second

in

We

see

for

whereas

of accuracy,

systems dynamics with

clearly from

very

be 3

case

predicted

RMSE

an

these

figures that,

the level of

CO2

for the first

to the

the

successfully identihed

we

desired

and level

nonlinear

desired

0.02()5.

=

of

2-Prediction

Example

5.2

9, respectively. Finally in Fig. 10 and 11, the third

the system cannot

cases

membership functions

and final

initial

The

obtained.

were

8 and

Fig.

described.

was

case

0.0588

=

27

Systems

the

Mackey-G1ass

Chaotic

Dynamics time

The chaotic

series

used in

is

simulation

our

generated by

a

delay differential

equation l

dx(t)

-----

dt

that

was

and fy fixed

aj

of the

function

reported by

Farmer

limit

or

and

cycle,

or

(1982). As

chaotic

is

T

=,U.2,,6

forecast

with

The

Choosing

:r;(t + At)

the fractal

the

systems,

low such

At

Note

>

of that

dimensional.

system is infinite onto

with

dimension

chaos.

dimensional

time

dimensional as

nonlinear

constant

50.

strange

a

of

is

of the as

T

3.5.

as

the

yields

fractal

iixed»point,

chaotic

behaviour,

of

yields

Higher

approximately dimension

attractor

50, which 30

=

is

either

dimension

with

approximately

However,

17

=

fractal

a

Meanwhile,

because

T

T

extensively and

studied

the system exhibits

(Gtt, 1981), with

characteristic

10 leaves

=

Mackey & Glass equation (33)

been

has

(T)

2.1, i.e., :v(t) is quasi-periodic and chaotic of 2.1.

0.1 and fy

=

of the

varied,

behaviour.

(Mackey85 Glass, 1977).Keeping

Glass

behaviour

(33 )

Bw(t )

-

-

delay parameter

attractor

strange

a

at

The

only adjustable parameter. a

1

investigated by Mackey and

first

the parameters

as

crx(t T) -I- x7(t T) -

=

makes a

values

difficult

strange of

T

to

attractor

yield higher

delay, m(t-T), the phase space of this time

attractor.

partial differential

progresses

Other

infinite

the system

collapses

dimensional

chaotic

equations, also display collapse

HyF IS: Adaptive Neuro~Fuzzy Inference

low dimensional

onto

the

Thus,

attractors.

in the

simpler setting of nonlinear, differential

much

more

complicated systems such

A detailed

analysis of the chaotic

(1981) &

Ott

5.2.1

Farmer

is to take

goal

At

where

is

statistics

on

the time

The

fundamental

in

future.

the

a

the

for this

Farber of this

is

vector

number

equations.

At

and

of chaos

dictates

is due

discrete

in

times

is

a

of connectionist

that

changes

past that

will

degrade to create

(D

ac(t+ At). Embedding to

several

At

as

1)A)

-

set

(1989).

problem which

The

At

collect

along It

is increased.

will

decrease

of finite

precision

used for

predicting

is increased.

a (t

,...,

-

D

those

The

points

A),a:(t)),

of time~series

values

in

Lapedes &

of

prediction of future

values

has been also considered

(Lapedes& Farber, 1987; Moody

researchers

At),

+

accuracy.

mapping from

approaches, including

XL Darken

benchmark

a

are

a

on

as

At,

window

accuracy

inaccuracies

in the

-

fix

the

statistics

prediction

is, (:v(t

window

time

some

by sliding

of accuracy

type of prediction is

value

t

again collect

that

in

One may

the future.

inescapable

to

times

accurately predict x(t

to

times

prediction

index

common

series

in

occurs

equation (33) may be found

of

the values

average

(1987), and Moody time

differential

partial

discrete

at

step into

spaced A apart,

series

predicted future

state

time

many

This

:c(t) at

of

Thus, all predictive methods

of the time a

an

nature

method

standard

to

how

is increased.

specifying

properties

use

series, and then increase

be observed

At

t, and

for

accuracy

can

as

of values

set

a

prediction

some

nonlinear

as

that

equations behaviour

Design

less than

times

containing

Mackey-Glass equation (33) exhibits

(1982).

Experimental

The

28

Systems

&

by

a

Darken,

1989; Casdagli, 1989; Crowder, 1990; Weigend, 1990). At

7’

broadband

=

17, :1:(t) appears with

numerous

to

spikes

be

quasi-periodic

due to the

and

the

quasi-periodicity.

spectrum

power

At

T

=

is

30, av(t)is

Inference

H5/FIS: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy

steps for

of 1000 time

goal is

to

where

At

is

a

viewed

as

an

m

be

is

+

m

1.

inputs that

17. lf A is

=

f(m(t),:c(t

=

dimensional

+1

take

a

and

the future

A)

-

and

the

Thus, of

a

single

for

time

a

then

integer,

an

span our

function

_

,;c(t

.

_

is

f

a

(34)

mA)),

-

This

map.

embedding dimension node

in the output

:1:(t mA). y(t -

,...,

is

m

-

output

:r(t), :r(t

on

delay,

A), ;z:(t 2A),

-

space.

-1- At) is the

time

a

(t)

time

’versus

to construct

into

time

prediction

y(t

plot of ;v(t)

a

neuro-fuzzy model

the

use

T

ja/(t+ At)

to

12 shows

irregular. Fig.

more

even

29

Systems

is defined

layer,

takes

At)

+

be

may

and

ac

the value

on

me + At). yet specified what

We have not of Takens

(Takens, 1981) states

defined

be, df,

2df + on

of

to

then

choose

A and the time

span

We extracted

1000

of the fractal

if the dimension

that

embedding dimension, de lies

an

1. We therefore

be. An important

and A should

m

de

=

1’

to forecast

want

we

4, for

=

data

input-output

17. Takens

is At

the future

into

which

pairs

consist

no

=

of four

is

attractor

in the range

provides

theorem

df

de


HyFIS

CO 2 UI

SYSTEM

1)SYSTEM2 1)

\

ll(t’4) L

s0r \

f

M

g

wk

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5: A

ueuro-fuzzy

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for the

Box-Jenkins

data

set.

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48

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and the

HyFIS prediction (dashedline); using fuzzy rules from the partitioned data system response

HyFIS prediction

error

(solid line) and for

a

smaller

the

HyFIS fuzzy

set of

FIGURES

(D)

(3)

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51

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Mackey

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dicted

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56

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