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ADVANCES IN CLIMATE RISK ANALYSIS IN THE COLOMBIAN COFFEE ZONE Víctor H Ramírez; Julieth P Giraldo, Everth E Suárez, Jose Castrillon, Natalia Bermúdez; Álvaro Jaramillo, Andrés J. Peña; and Néstor M Riaño National Coffee Research Center-Cenicafé, Chinchiná, Caldas, Colombia.
Introduction The climate variability is the variation in the mean climate variables at different temporal and spatial levels. The natural source of climate variability at temporal level that most influences the coffee crop production is the generated by the Pacific ocean surfaces temperature oscillations, or well known as the El NiñoLa Niña (ENSO). The climate variability generate a strong economic impact in the Colombian economy including the coffee production, that is the case registered during the period 2009-2012,when the production fall near at 30% below of the historical mean. During 2010 Colombia was the third most affected county by the climate variability with losses of the 2% of the domestic product (Harmeling, 2011). For that reason the Coffee growers federation in the Colombian coffee congress in 2011 develop an strategic document which was known as the “adaptive strategy” that include 9 strategies one of them advances in climate variability studies.
Objective
The maps were divided in two semester, due that some location in Colombia. Have the main harvest in the first semester and other in the second, for example the figure 1 indicate the potential area with risk at the water deficit for tree climate variability scenarios for the central-west coffee area. During the El Niño the area with risk is 13,2%, during Neutral condition is 9,2% and during th La Niña 2% of the area El Niño
Neutra
38.416,69 Has 13,2 %
26.697,97 Has 9,2 %
La Niña
5.838,26 Has 2%
Figure 1. Potential risk to water deficit for the ENSO conditions in the centralwest of the Colombian Coffee zone for the harvest of the first semester of the The objective of this work was develop and apply an a methodology for year. Risk to have more than 60 days of SMI0,6 the productivity is reduced by water excess and if the SMI
