Knowledge based Expert System Tool for Optimization of the Complex ...

14 downloads 36670 Views 3MB Size Report
Knowledge based expert system tool for optimization of the ... best sustainable design strategies for designing Zero Energy Buildings (ZEB) [2], .... location for the simulation was set to Milan, Italy with weather data provided by NREl website.
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 78 (2015) 2226 – 2231

WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO%XLOGLQJ3K\VLFV&RQIHUHQFH,%3&

.QRZOHGJHEDVHGH[SHUWV\VWHPWRROIRURSWLPL]DWLRQRIWKH FRPSOH[JODVV%,39V\VWHPSDQHOOD\RXWRQWKHFDEOHQHWVWUXFWXUDO VNLQ 1HERMãD-DNLFDD $OHVVDQGUD=DQHOOLD D

3ROLWHFQLFRGL0LODQR%RQDUGL6WUHHW0LODQR,WDO\

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‹7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license 3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH&(1752&21*5(66,,17(51$=,21$/(65/ (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the CENTRO CONGRESSI INTERNAZIONALE SRL .H\ZRUGVFRPSOH[%,39FDEOHQHWNQRZOHGJHEDVHGH[SHUWVV\VWHPHDUO\GHVLJQSKDVHRSWLPLVDWLRQ5DGLDQFH

&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ (PDLODGGUHVVQHERMVDMDNLFD#SROLPLLW

1876-6102 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the CENTRO CONGRESSI INTERNAZIONALE SRL doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2015.11.339

Nebojša Jakica and Alessandra Zanelli / Energy Procedia 78 (2015) 2226 – 2231

2227

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

2228

Nebojša Jakica and Alessandra Zanelli / Energy Procedia 78 (2015) 2226 – 2231

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

 )LJ3VHXGRFRGHRIWKHH[SHUWV\VWHPWRRO

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

2229

Nebojša Jakica and Alessandra Zanelli / Energy Procedia 78 (2015) 2226 – 2231

 )LJ3DUDPHWULFGHILQLWLRQRI&)6LQWKH*UDVVKRSSHUSOXJLQIRU5KLQRFHURVG

&)6 FRPSRQHQWV DUH GHILQHG DV UHFWDQJXODU ER[HV HDFK ZLWK WKH VDPH GLPHQVLRQ RI [[FP DQG ZLWK WKH YDULRXVJURYHV¶GLPHQVLRQVRQERWKVLGHV6RPHRIWKHWLOHVKDYHJURRYHVZLWKWKHH[WUXVLRQGLUHFWLRQRXWZDUGVDQG VRPHLQZDUGV7RSVLGHKDVVPDOOHUJURRYHVDQGLWVIXQFWLRQLVWRFDSWXUHOLJKWZKLOHERWWRPVLGHKDVOHVVJURYHVDQG SURYLGHVVROLGVXEVWUDWHVXUIDFHIRU39'HWDLOHGJHRPHWULFDOSDUDPHWHUVDUHVKRZQRQ)LJ 

 )LJ&RPSOH[%,39WLOHV

6LPXODWLRQSDUDPHWHUVDQGUHVXOWV )RUWKHILUVWSKDVHVLPXODWLQJDQQXDOLUUDGLDWLRQOHYHOVRQ39VXUIDFHYDOLGDWHG5DGLDQFHGD\OLJKWLQJVLPXODWLRQ >@ZDVXVHGLPSOHPHQWHGWKURXJKWKHWRROV/DG\EXJDQG+RQH\EHH>@,WDOORZHGVLPXODWLRQRI&)6FRPSRQHQWZLWK

2230

Nebojša Jakica and Alessandra Zanelli / Energy Procedia 78 (2015) 2226 – 2231

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

 )LJ D )DOVHFRORULPDJHRIDQQXDOFXPXODWLYHVN\UDGLDQFHGLVWULEXWLRQIRU0LODQ,WDO\ E SHUIRUPDQFHUHVXOWIRURQHRIWKHYDULDWLRQ

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

 )LJ9LVXDOL]DWLRQRIWKHILUVWYDULDWLRQVLQNQRZOHGJHEDVH

2231

Nebojša Jakica and Alessandra Zanelli / Energy Procedia 78 (2015) 2226 – 2231

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

 )LJ(YDOXDWLRQRIWRRORSWLPL]LQJSRWHQWLDO

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV 7KLV ZRUN ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH /RPEDUG\ 5HJLRQ DQG WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI (GXFDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLWLHV DQG 5HVHDUFK 0,85 XQGHU*UDQW>QXPEHU@ 5HIHUHQFHV >@ -0/*DJQH0$QGHUVHQDQG/.1RUIRUG³$QLQWHUDFWLYHH[SHUWV\VWHPIRUGD\OLJKWLQJGHVLJQ H[SORUDWLRQ´%XLOG(QYLURQYROQRSS±1RY >@ $6FRJQDPLJOLRDQG+15¡VWYLN³3KRWRYROWDLFVDQG]HURHQHUJ\EXLOGLQJVDQHZRSSRUWXQLW\DQGFKDOOHQJH IRUGHVLJQ´3URJ3KRWRYROW5HV$SSOYROQRSS± >@ '&0RQWJRPHU\'HVLJQDQG$QDO\VLVRI([SHULPHQWVHGLWLRQ+RERNHQ1-:LOH\ >@ *:/DUVRQ56KDNHVSHDUH&(KUOLFK-0DUGDOMHYLF(3KLOOLSVDQG3$SLDQ%HQQHZLW]5HQGHULQJZLWK UDGLDQFHWKHDUWDQGVFLHQFHRIOLJKWLQJYLVXDOL]DWLRQ0RUJDQ.DXIPDQQ6DQ)UDQFLVFR&$ >@ 065RXGVDUL03DNDQG$6PLWK³/DG\EXJ$3DUDPHWULF(QYLURQPHQWDO3OXJLQIRU*UDVVKRSSHUWR+HOS 'HVLJQHUV&UHDWHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDOO\&RQVFLRXV'HVLJQ´LQSURFHHGLQJVRIEVWKFRQIHUHQFHRI LQWHUQDWLRQDOEXLOGLQJSHUIRUPDQFHDVVRFLDWLRQFKDPEHU\IUDQFHDXJXVWSS± >@ '5RELQVRQDQG$6WRQH³,UUDGLDWLRQPRGHOOLQJPDGHVLPSOHWKHFXPXODWLYHVN\DSSURDFKDQGLWV DSSOLFDWLRQV´LQ3/($&RQIHUHQFHSS± 

Suggest Documents