Politics of Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge and Making the Change. We are now living in what has been described as the 'anthropocene era'. The term ...
Politics of Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge and Making the Change The scientific consensus is clear – climate change is happening, and fast. Successfully tackling the challenge of the new ‘anthropocene era’ will require a different kind of politics and a different kind of economics, says Hugh Atkinson.
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the process released vast quantities of carbon dioxide gas into the Earth’s atmosphere. Carbon dioxide acts as a ‘greenhouse gas’, trapping additional heat from the Sun in the Earth’s atmosphere, in a similar way to an ordinary greenhouse. But the consequences of this are far from ordinary. The temperature in the Earth’s atmosphere is rising steadily but inexorably, with untold consequences for both people and planet. As if this is not bad enough, in the relentless pursuit of economic growth we have been putting the chainsaw to vast acres of the world’s forests that could act as a carbon sink by absorbing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We simply cannot go on like this. We have no option but to meet the challenge of climate change as part of a broader agenda to develop a more sustainable way of living. But this requires political leadership and that is something that has been lacking of late. I will return to this shortly.
Reuters
e are now living in what has been described as the ‘anthropocene era’. The term was originally coined by the ecologist Eugene F. Stormer but popularised by the atmospheric chemist and Nobel laureate, Paul Crutzen. The argument for a new era is straightforward: the impact of human behaviour on the planet over a consolidated period of time has been so significant as to constitute a distinct geological epoch. This is nowhere more apparent than in the challenge of climate change. There is now overwhelming consensus in the scientific community that climate change is happening and that it is the result of human activity, particularly the extensive use of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas, which we have been devouring since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. In a nutshell, we have taken carbon that has been stored under the earth for thousands of years, burnt it, and in
The 2012 Doha UN Climate Change Conference was a major disappointment with world leaders putting off key decisions to another day. 30
Political Insight
The Evidence Climate change was first identified as a potential threat to the health of the planet in the late 19th century, but it was not until the late 1980s that the issue really started to come to prominence. In June 1988, James Hansen, an American scientist with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), gave evidence to the United States Senate. He told the assembled senators that he was 99 per cent certain that the record temperatures that year in the United States were not the result of natural variations but instead of growing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. ‘It is time to stop waffling so much,’ argued Hansen, ‘and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here.’ In the 25 years since Hansen gave his testimony, that scientific evidence has grown stronger and stronger. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is made up of the world’s leading climate change scientists. Its position is clear: climate change and global warming are a real and present threat and they are caused by the vast amounts of greenhouse gases (principally in the form of carbon dioxide) that we as human beings have been pumping into the Earth’s atmosphere by our continued burning of fossil fuels. There are some who challenge this consensus and deny the very existence of climate change – the Tea Party in the United States and some right-wing think tanks come to mind – but such views fly firmly in the face of all scientific fact and reasoned argument. It has been clearly and demonstrably shown that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increased from 1900 to 2012 (see Figure 1). This upward trend has continued since 2012. In May of
450.00 400.00
Atmospheric CO2 concentration, parts per million, by volume, 1900-2012
350.00
figure is significant, with many scientists now of the view that any increase beyond this would take us into uncharted territory, with the world experiencing more and more strange and unusual weather events.
300.00 250.00
The Impact
1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
200.00 FIGURE 1 Atmospheric CO2 concentration, parts per million, by volume, 1900–2012
Source: Base data compiled by Earth Policy Institute from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
this year, the American National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) observatory in Mauna Loa, Hawaii recorded emission levels beyond the milestone of 400 parts per million (ppm). It is salutary to note that the last time there was such a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was several million years ago when the Arctic was ice-free and sea levels were up to 40 metres higher. Responding to these latest findings, Professor Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC, said: ‘At the beginning of industrialisation the concentration of CO2 was just 280ppm. We must hope that the world crossing this milestone will bring about awareness of the scientific reality of climate change and how human society should deal with the challenge’. So who are the main culprits in terms of greenhouse gas emissions? Table 1 shows the latest data. Last year, China was responsible for 23.5 per cent of all total emissions, just ahead of the United States. Ten countries accounted for 67 per cent of all emissions. At the bottom of the list were the Maldives Islands in the Indian Ocean, whose greenhouse gas emissions were negligible. By a strange twist of irony the Maldives is one of the first countries to feel the impact of rising sea levels as a result of climate change. In an
attempt to draw attention to this issue, the Maldives President actually held a cabinet meeting under the sea in October 2009. The overall trend in the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere is also upward (see Figure 2). Indeed, 20 of the hottest 21 years since records began in 1860 have occurred in the last 25 years. Official figures released by the NOAA show that 2012 was the warmest year on record for the United States. The principal cause of this upward trend, argues the IPCC, is the increasing greenhouse gas emissions shown in Figure 1. The latest ‘solution’ to the energy problem – the fracking of shale gas, particularly prevalent in the United States – will only add to the problem. There is a growing consensus that this trend of temperature increase is set to continue; the only uncertainty is by how much. The IPCC estimates that global temperatures this century could increase by anywhere between two and four degrees centigrade (3.6 to 7.2 in Fahrenheit). The 2 °C (3.6 °F)
The Worldwatch Institute has argued that ‘Like a distant tsunami that is only a few metres high in the deep ocean but rises dramatically as it reaches shallow coastal waters, the great wave of climate change has snuck upon people – and is now beginning to bite’. This is certainly true. The 2006 Stern Report warned of the severe environmental, social and economic consequences of climate change. Urgent action was needed, argued Stern. Seven years on, the situation is even more pressing. The physical impact of climate change is becoming increasingly evident. Rising sea levels threaten the livelihoods of many people, bringing with them poverty and social and political instability. Delicate ecosystems are being eroded, posing a threat to biodiversity and the balance of nature. Sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to the smallest extent ever recorded, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado. Satellite images from 2012 show that a rapid melt has reduced the area of frozen sea to less than 3.3 million square kilometres, less than half that of 40 years ago. Research published in the journal Science in 2012 shows that four trillion tonnes of ice from Greenland and Antarctica has melted in the last 20 years, adding yet further to rising sea levels.
59.00 58.50
Average global surface temperatures, 1900-2012, degrees fahrenheit
58.00 57.50 57.00
Country
Total greenhouse gas emissions (%)
China
23.5
USA
23
European Union
14
India
6
Source: IPCC
56.50 56.00 55.50 55.00 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
TABLE 1 Percentage greenhouse gas emissions per country, 2013
FIGURE 2 Average global surface temperatures, 1900–2012, °F Source: Base data compiled by Earth Policy Institute (2013) from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).
September 2013
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Sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to the smallest extent ever recorded, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre. Press Association
We will have to get used to more of the unusual and extreme weather events that we have experienced in recent years across the globe, including the increasing frequency of hurricanes, tornadoes and other phenomena. By virtue of its geographical location, sub-Saharan Africa in particular has suffered from some of the worst excesses of climate change. This is forecast to continue. Droughts will become more extensive and more prolonged, bringing increased desertification, with major consequences for agriculture and water supplies in a continent that is already disproportionately affected by poverty. So the poorest countries and the poorest people are hit the most by climate change, yet they bear the least responsibility for its causes. In this context, leading sociologist Anthony Giddens has argued that tackling climate is more important than social justice. Indeed, the two are inextricably linked. 32
Political Insight
Political Will
Saharan Africa in particular has suffered from some of the worst excesses of climate change
There is no doubt that climate change presents us with a considerable challenge. But it is not an insurmountable one, there are grounds for optimism. We should not underestimate the human capacity for making the necessary changes to a more sustainable way of life. We have the skills and the knowledge to deal with climate change: there is, for example, a potentially abundant supply
of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and tidal that could shift us away from our dependence on fossil fuels. The missing ingredient in all of this is political will. To be fair, politicians and decisionmakers at the global, national and local level do seem to recognise that there is a problem. Indeed, there has been no lack of summits, conferences and gatherings, from the Rio Summit of 1992 to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change, right through
Climate Change: A Political Dilemma In seeking to combat climate change, politicians face a real dilemma. Telling voters (especially in the developed world) that tacking climate change will require fundamental changes to traditional notions of economic growth and individual prosperity hardly seems like a recipe for success at the ballot box. Yet the fact remains that for millions of the world’s poor and unemployed, the current system is simply not delivering what it is supposed to deliver. We need to move to what Tim Jackson has called ‘prosperity without growth’. Politicians need to shift the terms of the debate so that meeting the challenge of climate change is not seen in negative terms but is instead viewed as a real opportunity to build a more sustainable and fulfilling way of life.
A major shift is needed in the psychology of politicians and voters alike
change, by its very nature, necessitates long-term strategies and commitments. Yet politicians invariably think in the short-to-medium term, governed by the exigencies of the electoral cycle. Yet there can be no getting away from the fact that effective action on climate change will require real sacrifices by voters, in particular in the developed world. How do we move to a new kind of politics in which politicians are honest with their electorates about the need to use less energy, to fly less frequently and to make less use of their cars? A major shift is needed in the psychology of politicians and voters alike. Are politicians capable of making the necessary ‘brave decisions’, to spell out the sacrifices that need to be made? How will voters respond at the ballot box? Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing us in the 21st century. It is all too easy to feel overwhelmed by the scale of the problem and to fall into a counsel of despair, and yet not taking action is simply not an option. Planet Earth is the only home we have. Its resources are limited. We need to do a different kind of politics and a different kind of economics if we are to work within the carrying capacity of the Earth. Politicians need to be honest with voters and citizens, but voters and citizens need to be honest with themselves, too.
Press Association
Selected References
Leading American climatologist James Hansen stands beside a mock grave at Coventry Cathedral to highlight the impact of climate change.
to the 2012 UN Climate Change Conference in Doha. There have been some important achievements along the way. The Kyoto Protocol, for example, was a global deal that set out agreed targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It was far from perfect but it was a notable milestone nonetheless. However, mixed in with such achievements
there has been a lot of overblown rhetoric, warm words and broken promises. Last year’s Doha UN Climate Change Conference was, in the eyes of most observers, a major disappointment, with world leaders in effect putting off key decisions to another day. The reasons for this are not difficult to understand. Tackling climate
Earth Policy Institute (2013) Eco-Economy Indicators, Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute. Giddens, A. (2009) The Politics of Climate Change. Cambridge: Polity Jackson, T. (2011) Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet. London: Earthscan. Stern, N. (2006) Stern Review on Economics of Climate Change. London: HMSO. Worldwatch Institute (2009) State of the World 2009: Confronting Climate Change. London: Earthscan.
Hugh Atkinson is Senior Lecturer in Politics at London South Bank University. His most recent book is Local Democracy, Civic Engagement and Community: From New Labour to the Big Society. September 2013
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