Probability forecasting and observed outcomes

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Probability of [1],[N],[2]. Mean. Val2.5% Val97.5p%. Date p[1]. 0.523. 0.260. 0.775. 11/04/2017. DOR-MON 113. 2-3 p[N]. 0.294. 0.172. 0.409 p[2]. 0.183. 0.040.
JL Foulley 04-05-2017 C1-2016-2017 Quarter-Finals and Semi-Finals 1st & 2nd legs

Table: Probability forecasting and observed outcomes Match

Result

DOR-MON 113

2-3

114

3-0

JUV-BAR

ATM-LEI

115

1-0

BYM-RMA

116

1-2

117

1-1

RMA-BYM 118

4-2

MON-DOR 119

3-1

120

0-0

LEI-ATM

BAR-JUV

Probability of [1],[N],[2] p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] p[2]

p[1] p[N] p[2] p[1] MON-JUV 122 p[N] p[2] p[1] 123 JUV-MON p[N] p[2] p[1] p[N] ATM-RMA 124 p[2] Match A-B (home team A; visiting team B) RMA-ATM 121

Mean

Val2.5%

Val97.5p%

Date

0.523 0.294 0.183 0.412 0.317 0.271 0.665 0.239 0.096 0.418 0.317 0.265 0.197 0.289 0.514 0.501 0.292 0.207 0.410 0.309 0.281 0.409 0.309 0.282

0.260 0.172 0.040 0.151 0.212 0.076 0.402 0.116 0.016 0.157 0.207 0.072 0.044 0.167 0.251 0.233 0.179 0.051 0.159 0.209 0.088 0.164 0.207 0.085

0.775 0.409 0.409 0.687 0.424 0.553 0.862 0.371 0.263 0.698 0.424 0.547 0.427 0.403 0.778 0.756 0.400 0.448 0.671 0.412 0.549 0.679 0.412 0.548

11/04/2017

0.513 0.295 0.192 0.317 0.320 0.363 0.598 0.264 0.138 0.330 0.316 0.354

0.246 0.182 0.050 0.100 0.219 0.136 0.341 0.149 0.031 0.118 0.220 0.129

0.754 0.409 0.433 0.577 0.424 0.643 0.811 0.382 0.329 0.594 0.417 0.620

02/05/2017

12/04/2017

18/04/2017

19/04/2017

03/05/2017

09/05/2017

10/05/2017

p[A-B,1]=proba of A win over B; p[A-B,N]=proba of a draw; p[A-B,2]=proba of A loss, B win Forecasting performance: 6/10=60% Reference: Foulley JL (2015) A simple Bayesian procedure for forecasting the outcomes of the UEFA Champions League matches. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, 156, (2),38-50

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