Program and Abstracts

Program and Abstracts

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Program and Abstracts

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Organizing committee of EWGT 2015

Executive committee:

Gonçalo Correia (Chair) Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Bruno Santos

Maarten Kroesen

Faculty of Aerospace Engineering

Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management

Conference manager:

Nicole Fontein

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18th Euro Working Group on Transportation, EWGT 2015 14-16 July 2015, Delft, The Netherlands

Organizers of special streams of the conference Air Transport Nicole Adler Lorenzo Casteli

Hebrew University of Israel University of Trieste

Multi-criteria Decision-Making in Transportation and Logistics Jafar Rezaei Delft University of Technology Rommert Dekker Erasmus School of Economics Cycling Mobility and Accessibility Anabela Ribeiro Marco te Brömmelstroet

University of Coimbra University of Amsterdam

Design, Modelling and Control of Autonomous and Cooperative Vehicle Systems Meng Wang Delft University of Technology Nour-Eddin El Faouzi ENTPE – IFSTTAR Claudio Roncoli Technical University of Crete Urban Network Traffic Flow: Modelling, Operations and Control Mehdi Keyvan-Ekbatani Delft University of Technology Meead Saberi Monash University Railway Traffic Modelling and Optimization Rob M.P. Goverde Delft University of Technology Nikola Bešinović Delft University of Technology Shared Mobility Planning and Operations Gonçalo Correia Delft University of Technology The executive committee wants to thank the commitment of these colleagues in setting up excellent sessions on their fields of research.

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Foreward For its 18th edition, the Euro Working Group in Transportation (EWGT) is coming to the Netherlands. From the 14th to the 16th July 2015, EWGT is being organized by the Delft University of Technology through the Transport Institute of this university. For this, the Institute is coordinating the efforts of three departments: Transport & Planning of the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Air Transport & Operations of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, and Engineering Systems & Services of the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management. EWGT 2015 has received considerable attention from around the world. The total number of abstracts received was almost 400, of which 75% were accepted for presentation at the conference. The conference features keynote speeches by three leading authorities in transport modelling and provides an exciting technical programme covering a wide range of topics in transport research. Ten years after my first participation in EWGT, and being a regular participant in this conference series, I believe that it is this diversity that makes EWGT truly unique. Different fields of transport research can benefit from learning about and understanding the methods of others, thus establishing a productive dialogue that ultimately will lead to deeper knowledge on how to manage transportation systems, which should hopefully lead to a better world. This year the conference does not have a specific theme because the executive committee fully assumes EWGT to be open to every field, however it would definitely be useful to draw attention to some trends in the programme. For this, I look at the special streams organized by experts in their fields. In those sessions it is possible to see the rise of shared mobility and automated vehicles as society evolves from owning and driving vehicles to renting and enjoying a ride in a self-driving car. It is also noticeable that traditional research fields such as urban traffic and railway traffic modelling are working at more accurately describing their systems in order to tackle capacity and safety problems. In this EWGT, multi-criteria analysis stands out as one of the most robust and flexible methods of arriving at better decisions in transport investment. Air transport is given extra attention with several sessions where operations research is the main actor when it comes to providing a more secure, efficient, and delay-free system of travelling between countries and continents. Last, but definitely not the least, I am proud that cycling mobility is very well represented in the programme. Since the Netherlands is so famously known for using the bicycle all the time, for any kind of trip, it makes complete sense for us to be able to discuss at this EWGT how to support and foster the usage of this sustainable mode of transport around the world. Nevertheless the special streams are just an example of a scientific program that counts almost 200 presentations with very high quality! The work of organizing and holding this conference is, as you may imagine, quite intensive. First and foremost I would like to thank my executive committee fellow members, Dr Bruno Santos, for his tireless dedication in creating a scientific programme which we hope will stay in the memory of all participants, and Dr Maarten Kroesen, for his invaluable effort in the general conference management, including securing the always-needed sponsors. Second, I would like to thank Nicole Fontein for the brilliant daily management of this conference from the early bidding stage and all through the months leading up to this moment. Third, a special thank-you goes to the organizers of the special streams, who were able to attract many interesting presentations and papers in their specific fields. Fourth, I must thank our three sponsors for their incredible support, and they are: The TU Delft Transport Institute, headed by Prof. Bart van Arem; TrafficQuest, center for expertise on traffic management, which also supported the prize for the best paper on urban traffic management; and NWO, The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research. A word of appreciation is also due to Riccardo Rossi for trusting the organization of the 18th EWGT to a young chairman, and for his generous availability to help the executive committee with his knowledge of the EWGT conference series. And last, but not least, I acknowledge my gratitude to the EWGT 2015 keynote speakers, authors, session chairpersons and general attendees, whose contributions and efforts have made this conference possible. Delft, July 2015

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Gonçalo Homem de Almeida R. Correia (Chair of EWGT2015)

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Contents Organizing committee of EWGT 2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Organizers of special streams of the conference ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Foreward .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Paper Index ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Floorplan of the Aula Congrescentrum ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 Official TU Delft Campus map ..................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Scientific Committee ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Full Paper Reviewers ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 The Euro Working Group in Transportation .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Conference Dinner ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Keynote Speakers .................................................................................................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. Conference Sponsors ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Keynote Speech I: Traffic assignment models of the 21st century ............................................................................................................. 18 Keynote Speech II: Aviation Modeling using Game-Theoretic Principles ................................................................................................ 19 Keynote Speech III: Thinking small with big data? Opportunities and pitfalls for big data in transportation ..................................... 20 Conference numbers at a glance ................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Schematic Program........................................................................................................................................................................................ 23

MONDAY (JULY 13TH) ........................................................................................................................................ 23 TUESDAY (JULY 14TH)..................................................................................................................................... 23 THURSDAY (JULY 16TH).................................................................................................................................. 25 Parallel Sessions ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 27

TUESDAY (JULY 14TH)..................................................................................................................................... 27 PARALLEL SESSIONS A .......................................................................................................................... 27 A1. MC decision-making in transport & logistics [Collegezaal A] ........................................................................... 27 A2. Autonomous and cooperative vehicle systems [Collegezaal B] .......................................................................... 27 A3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] .............................................................................................. 28 A4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] ............................................................................................. 28 A5. Land use & transport interactions [Senaatszaal] ................................................................................................. 29

PARALLEL SESSIONS B .......................................................................................................................... 30 B1 MC decision-making in transport & logistics [Collegezaal A] ............................................................................. 30 B2. Autonomous and cooperative vehicle systems [Collegezaal B] .......................................................................... 30 B3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] .............................................................................................. 31 B4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] ............................................................................................. 31 B5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal] ................................................................................................................................. 32

PARALLEL SESSIONS C .......................................................................................................................... 33 C1 MC decision-making in transport & logistics [Collegezaal A] ............................................................................. 33 C2. Freight and logistics systems [Collegezaal B] ..................................................................................................... 33 C3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] .............................................................................................. 34 C4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] ............................................................................................. 34 C5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal] ................................................................................................................................. 35

WEDNESDAY (JULY 15TH) .............................................................................................................................. 36 PARALLEL SESSIONS D .......................................................................................................................... 36 D1. Cycling mobility and accessibility [Collegezaal A] ............................................................................................ 36 D2. Freight and logistics systems [Collegezaal B] ..................................................................................................... 36

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D3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] .............................................................................................. 37 D4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] ............................................................................................. 37 D5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal]................................................................................................................................. 38

PARALLEL SESSIONS E .......................................................................................................................... 39 E1. Cycling mobility and accessibility [Collegezaal A]............................................................................................. 39 E2. Freight and logistics systems [Collegezaal B] ..................................................................................................... 39 E3. Shared mobility [Collegezaal C] ......................................................................................................................... 40 E4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] ............................................................................................. 40 E5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal] ................................................................................................................................. 41 E6. Data and traveler information [Commissie-Kamer 3] ......................................................................................... 41

PARALLEL SESSIONS F .......................................................................................................................... 42 F1 Public transport & operations [Collegezaal A] ..................................................................................................... 42 F2. Rail transport operations [Collegezaal B] ............................................................................................................ 42 F3. Shared mobility [Collegezaal C] .......................................................................................................................... 43 F4. TrafficQuest special session on urban traffic management [Collegezaal D]........................................................ 43 F5. Transport demand and behavior [Senaatszaal]..................................................................................................... 44

THURSDAY (JULY 16TH).................................................................................................................................. 45 PARALLEL SESSIONS G .......................................................................................................................... 45 G1. Public transport & operations [Collegezaal A] ................................................................................................... 45 G2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization [Collegezaal B] ............................................................................... 45 G3. Shared mobility [Collegezaal C] ......................................................................................................................... 46 G4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] ............................................................................................. 46 G5 Intelligent transportation systems [Senaatszaal]................................................................................................... 47

PARALLEL SESSIONS H .......................................................................................................................... 48 H1. Environment and emissions [Collegezaal A] ...................................................................................................... 48 H2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization [Collegezaal B] ............................................................................... 48 H3. Transport demand and behavior [Collegezaal C] ................................................................................................ 49 H4. Urban network traffic flow [Collegezaal D] ....................................................................................................... 49 H5. Open Access Publication (special session) [Senaatszaal] ................................................................................... 50

PARALLEL SESSIONS I ........................................................................................................................... 51 I1. Energy in transport and environment [Collegezaal A] .......................................................................................... 51 I2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization [Collegezaal B]................................................................................. 51 I3. Transport demand and behavior [Collegezaal C] .................................................................................................. 52 I4. Urban network traffic flow [Collegezaal D] ......................................................................................................... 52 I5. Urban Mobility and accessibility [Senaatszaal] ................................................................................................... 53 Abstracts of presentations ordered by paper number ................................................................................................................................. 55 Index by Paper with Schedule and Room .................................................................................................................................................. 247 Notes ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 261

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Abstracts Index

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Floorplan of the Aula Congrescentrum

Commissie-Kamer

Commissie-Kamer

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Commissie-Kamer

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Commissie-Kamer

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Official TU Delft Campus map

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Scientific Committee Andrzej Adamsky António Pais Antunes Bart van Arem Bernhard Friedrich Caspar Chorus Cathy Macharis Cynthia Barnhart Dries Visser Dusan Teodorovic Erel Avineri, Afeka Eric Miller Francisco Garcìa Benitez Giulio Erberto Cantarella Hans van Lint Henk van Zuylen Hiroshi Wakabayashi Jacek Zak Jaume Barceló Jean-Patrick Lebacque Jorge Freire de Sousa Juan Carlos Martín Klaus Bogenberger Markos Papageorgiou Maurizio Bielli Mauro Dell'Orco Michele Ottomanelli Milan Janic Milica Kalic Neila Bhouri Oded Cats Riccardo Rossi Richard Curran S. C. Wong Serge Hoogendoorn, Stephane Hess Vojin Tosic Volker Gollnick

University of Science & Technology (Poland) University of Coimbra (Portugal) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) University Braunschweig (Germany) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) Vrije Universiteit Brussel (Belgium) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) University of Belgrade (Serbia) Tel Aviv College of Engineering (Israel) Toronto University (Canada) Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros (Spain) University of Salerno (Italy) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) Meijo University (Japan) Poznan University of Technology (Poland) Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain) IFSTTAR (France) Universidade do Porto (Portugal) University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain) Universitat der Bundeswehr Munchen (Germany) Technical University of Crete (Greece) National Research Council (Italy) Technical University of Bari (Italy) Technical University of Bari (Italy) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) University of Belgrade (Serbia) University of Paris East / IFSTTAR, GRETTIA (France) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) University of Padova (Italy) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong) Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) University of Leeds (United Kingdom) University of Belgrade (Serbia) Technical University of Hamburg-Harburg (Germany)

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Full Paper Reviewers Aguiléra , Vincent Ahmed , Afzal Aksoy , Goker Albert Neumann Saavedra , Bruno Almos , Virag Amberg , Boris Ampountolas , Konstantinos Andrade , Antonio Andreasson , Ingmar Andrés , Javier Aniello Di Donna , Simone Anne Annema , Jan Antunes , Antonio Antunes , David Araghi , Yashar Aron , Maurice Arslan , Turan Avineri , Erel Awais Shafique , Muhammad Balakrishnan , Srijith Barcelo , Jaume Barrena , Eva Baskan , Ozgur Bastos Silva , Ana Bekhor , Shlomo Berk Celikoglu , Hilmi Bernardi , Silvia Besinovic , Nikola Bielli , Maurizio Billot , Romain Bogenberger , Klaus Bojkovic , Natasa Bolic , Tatjana Bottani , Eleonora Braekers , Kris Brandenburg , Marcus Brinkmann , Jan Bruckmann , Dirk Cacchiani , Valentina Cadarso , Luis Calvert , Simeon Campisi , Tiziana Cats , Oded Cavadas , Joana Chen , Guineng Chen , Xiao Cherchi , Elisabetta Cherry , Christopher Chiou , Suh-Wen Codina , Esteve Coelho , Margarida Cohen , Simon Comi , Antonio Corman , Francesco Correia , Gonçalo Coutinho-Rodrigues , João Crisalli , Umberto

D Ariano , Andrea Daamen , Winnie de Abreu E Silva , João De Boer , Luitzen de Luca , Stefano Defryn , Christof Dekker , Thijs Dell'Orco , Mauro Di Gangi , Massimo Duru , Okan E. Cantarella , Giulio Eddie Wilson , R. Eden , Niv Eiro , Tomas Farah , Haneen Farhi , Nadir Farias , Tiago Farooq , Bilal Faulin , Javier Frangioni , Antonio Freire de Sousa , Jorge Friedrich , Bernhard Gallo , Mariano Gama , Melissa Gastaldi , Massimiliano Gecchele , Gregorio Getachew Demissie , Merkebe Giuffrè , Orazio Goerigk , Marc Gomes , Rui Goulias , Konstadinos Goverde , Rob Guler , Ilgin Guyon , Olivier Habtemichael , Filmon Hadas , Yuval Hansen , Ingo Hartjes , Sander Hermans , Elke Hess , Stephane Heßler , Corinna Hoye , Alena Igazvolgyi Zsuzsanna , Kovacsne J. Miller , Eric Janic , Milan Jin , Wen-Long Jorge , Diana Jovanovic , Radosav Kalic , Milica Kecman , Pavle Keuchel , Stephan Keyvan-Ekbatani , Mehdi Korkmaz , Ersin Krajzewicz , Daniel Kramarz , Marzena Kumar , Pravin Lamas , Patricio

Leclercq , Ludovic Lidén , Tomas Limbourg , Sabine Luè , Alessandro Lurdes Simões , M. Ma , Tai-Yu Macario , Rosario Macharis , Cathy Mancera , Albert Mannino , Carlo Marcos , Nicolas Marín , Ángel Markovic , Nikola Martinez , Luis Mathisen , Terje Mattfeld , Dirk Medeossi , Giorgio Melo , Sandra Menendez , Monica Meng , Lingyun Milakis , Dimitris Mimura , Yasuhiro Mitsakis , Evangelos Molin , Eric Monzon , Andres Moreira-Matias , Luis Moura , Filipe Mouter , Niek Müller , Johannes Nalan Bilisik , Ozge Nassir , Neema Neila , Bhouri Nélson Rodrigues Da Silva , Antônio Nigro , Marialisa Omrani , Hichem Orth , Hermann Ottomanelli , Michele Pais Antunes , Antonio Papaioannou , Dimitrios Parzani , Celine Paula Barros , Ana Pedro Silva , Joao Pel , Adam Pellegrini , Paola Pereira , Alfredo Pfaffenbichler , Paul Pinho de Sousa , Jorge Placido , Antonio Popović , Dražen Ramezani , Mohsen Rascle , Michele Reis , Vasco Repolho , Hugo Rezaei , Jafar Ribeiro , Anabela Rinaldi , Marco Roling , Paul Roncoli , Claudio

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Rossi , Riccardo Saberi , Meead Salomons , Maria Salvo , Giuseppe Samà , Marcella Sandor , Zsolt Santos , Goncalo Sapori , Enrico Schlechte , Thomas Schmidt , Marie Schweizer , Joerg Sels , Peter Seyram Sossoe , Kwami Shen , Yu Sinha , Ankur Sousa , Nuno Srikukenthiran , Siva Sterle , Claudio Stubenschrott , Martin Suhl , Leena Taale , Henk Tchepel , Oxana Te Brömmelstroet , Marco Tesoriere , Giovanni Tørset , Trude Tosic , Vojin Treiber , Martin van Craneburgh , Sander van de Weg , Goof van Duin , Ron van Nes , Rob van Oort , Niels van Wageningen-Kessels , Femke van Wee , Bert Vasconcelos , Luis Vasconcelos , Luís Veelenturf , Lucas Verstichel , Jannes Visser , Dries Viti , Francesco Volta , Nicola Wagenaar , Joris Wakabayashi , Hiroshi Wan Ahmad , Karimah Wang , Meng Wiegmans , Bart Wismans , Luc Wong , S.C. Yang , Dujuan Yap , Menno Yuan , Yufei Zak , Jacek Zhang , Mo Zhou , Yi Zockaie , Ali


The Euro Working Group in Transportation The 18th meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT2015). The conference is organized by the Delft University of Technology and is held under the patronage of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) and The Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO) and the Transport Institute of the TUDelft.

Aims and Scope Main targets of the EWGT concern providing a forum to share informations and experiences of research activities, encouraging joint research and the development both of theoretical methods and applications, promoting the cooperation among different institutions and organisations, leaders at national level in the field of traffic, transportation and logistic systems. Primary field of interest concerns OR methods, mathematical models and computation algorithms to solve and support the solution of problems faced by public administrations, city authorities, public transport companies, service providers, logistic operators and so on. Related areas of interest are: •land-use and transportation planning •traffic control and simulation models •traffic network equilibrium models •public transport planning and management •applications of combinatorial optimization •vehicle routing and scheduling •intelligent transportation systems •logistics and freight transportation •environment problems •impact evaluation methods.

Scientific Board and Coordinator Scientific Board     

•Jaume Barcelò - Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (Spain) •Maurizio Bielli - IASI-National Research Council, Rome (Italy) •Mauro Dell'Orco - Technical University of Bari (Italy) •Markos Papageorgiou -Technical University of Crete (Greece) •Jacek Zak - Poznan University of Technology (Poland)

Coordinator Riccardo Rossi - University of Padova (Italy)

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Conference Dinner th

The Conference dinner on Wednesday, July 15 will be held on a ship named the Ocean Diva Futura. Europe's biggest event ship. On board you will have food, drinks and entertainment! All ingredients for this grand cruising event are in place. We sail off and you will be talking, eating and dancing while the city and Harbours of Rotterdam pass by. All delegates are cordially invited to join this cruise.

17:00 h. Departure from Delft by busses to Rotterdam (Wilhemina Kade/Rotterdam Cruise Terminal). 17:30 h. Arrival in Rotterdam Cruise Terminal

23:00 h. Departure from Rotterdam to Delft, Station/Westcord hotel, Hampshire hotel and Aula.

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Conference Sponsors The executive committee wants to thank the following generous sponsors of EWGT2015:

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Keynote Speech I: Traffic assignment models of the 21st century Michiel Bliemer, The University of Sydney Business School, Australia

Strategic transport planning models are applied all over the world for longterm forecasts and evaluations of infrastructure projects. Traffic assignment is key element of these models. Current practice by governments and practitioners on large scale networks is predominantly based on traditional static techniques from the 1950s. In a series of small examples, the serious limitations of these traditional techniques are illustrated, and how they produce inconsistent results (i.e., flows and travel times) when applied to our heavily congested roads in the 21st century. To understand the inconsistencies, traffic assignment models are classified in 12 different classes, which differ in temporal assumptions (static, semidynamic, dynamic) and spatial assumptions (unconstrained, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, capacity and storage constrained). The most limited model class describes a static all-or-nothing assignment, while the most advanced model class is represented by a first-order dynamic model. In order to be able to remove inconsistencies, a novel unified framework for traffic assignment is proposed in which the anatomy of traffic assignment models is laid out. Based on 8 assumptions (5 spatial and 3 temporal), any class of traffic assignment model can be created from a single mother-model. This significantly enhances our understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in each model class. It further demonstrates that in the case of traditional static methods, inconsistencies are (perhaps surprisingly) mainly caused by the spatial assumptions, not by the temporal assumptions. It also allows to mathematically derive completely new static (time-aggregated dynamic) models that can describe queues and even spillback consistent with first order dynamic models. These new models are illustrated using several examples, and demonstrate that it is possible in large scale applications to replace static models from the 1950s by novel static models that more realistically describe traffic in the 21st century.

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Keynote Speech II: Aviation Modeling using Game-Theoretic Principles Nicole, Adler, Hebrew University of Israel, Israel

In this keynote I will discuss the application of game theory to questions that have arisen in the aviation industry over the last decade, such as how to understand airline behavior under competition. Analyses across continents, under modal competition and under capacity restrictions provide fertile ground for this style of modeling based on optimization. I will discuss the following series of papers and potential future scope for analyses. Hub-Spoke Network Choice under Competition with an Application to Western Europe

This paper presents a model structure that analyses the hub-spoke network design issue within a competitive framework. Under deregulation, airlines develop hubspoke networks enabling them to increase frequency by aggregating demand and to prevent entry into the marketplace by reducing airfares. This research evaluates airline profits based on a micro-economic theory of its behavior under deregulation and its use of hub-and-spoke networks. Through a two-stage Nash best-response game, we search for equilibria in the air-transportation industry. Hub-and-Spoke Network Alliances and Mergers: Price-Location Competition in the Airline Industry

This paper presents a framework to analyze global alliances and mergers in the airline industry under competition. The framework helps airlines identify potential partners and network structures, and helps governments predict changes in social welfare before accepting or rejecting proposed mergers or alliances. The research adds profit-maximizing objectives to costbased network design formulations within a game theoretic framework. High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis

This research develops a methodology to assess infrastructure investments and their effects on transport equilibria taking into account competition between multiple privatized transport operator types. The operators, including high-speed rail, hub-andspoke legacy airlines and regional low-cost carriers, maximize best response functions via prices, frequency and train/plane sizes, given infrastructure provision, cost functions and environmental charges. The methodology is subsequently applied to all 27 EU countries and suggests that the development of the high-speed rail network across Europe could be beneficial from environmental and cohesion perspectives. Air Transport Liberalization and Airport Slot Allocation: The case of the Northeast Asian Transport Market

We develop a differentiated Bertrand high speed rail and airline network game which analyzes the effects of international air transport liberalization, regional open skies policies, domestic inter-modal competition and airport slot allocation. The model is applied to the transport market in Northeast Asia using a counter-factual approach, demonstrating the model’s capability of evaluating practical policies utilizing market data observed on the routes under investigation. Socially-oriented Flight Scheduling and Fleet Assignment Model with an Application to Norway

One of the direct results of air transport liberalization has been the development of publicly supported links on thin markets in remote regions through a tender process. We present a flight scheduling and fleet assignment optimization model to determine a network configuration that minimizes the social costs of a subsidized air transport system. A second stage welfare analysis of the network is carried out that distinguishes between passenger, airline, airport and government surpluses.

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Keynote Speech III: Thinking small with big data? Opportunities and pitfalls for big data in transportation Hani S. Mahmassani, Northwestern University Transportation Center, United States of America The amount of information collected actively and passively by transportation agencies and transportation companies is huge, growing, and under-utilized. Developments in transportation systems are inexorably moving towards greater connectivity and automation, generating orders of magnitude more data and data opportunities. Everyday, huge amounts of data are essentially thrown down the drain – a major missed opportunity towards smarter cities and more efficient transportation systems. We have identified four situations that account for considerable proportion of that drain. These serve as a caution as well as a checklist for how cities, agencies and transportation companies approach their data programs. However, data comes with biases; we give three common but insidious examples. Overall, big data offers tremendous opportunities for improving performance, making transportation systems safer and more efficient, making cities smarter, and reducing the friction of everyday living for their residents.

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Conference numbers at a glance Registered participants by country of origin:

Number of participants: Number of sessions: Number of presentations:

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Schematic Program Monday (July 13th)

13.00 – 16:00 14.00 – 16:00 17:30 – 19:30

Badge and Registration (Garderobe) Workshop Vehicle Automation (Commissie-Kamer 4) WELCOME COCKTAIL (City Hall)

TUESDAY (July 14th) 08.30 – 9.30 09:30 – 10:00 10:00 – 11:00 11:00 – 11:20

11:20 – 13:00

13:00 – 14:00

14:00 – 15:40

15:40 – 16:00

16:00 – 17:40

Badge and Registration (Garderobe) Welcome and opening speeches (Auditorium) Invited Lecture by Michiel Bliemer (Auditorium) COFFEE BREAK (Foyer) PARALLEL SESSIONS A A1. MC decision-making in transport & logistics (Collegezaal A) A2. Autonomous and cooperative vehicle systems (Collegezaal B) A3. OR and decision support systems (Collegezaal C) A4. Traffic engineering and operation (Collegezaal D) A5. Land use & transport interactions (Senaatszaal) LUNCH (Foyer) PARALLEL SESSIONS B B1. MC decision-making in transport & logistics (Collegezaal A) B2. Autonomous and cooperative vehicle systems (Collegezaal B) B3. OR and decision support systems (Collegezaal C) B4. Traffic engineering and operation (Collegezaal D) B5. Air transport (Senaatszaal) COFFEE BREAK (Foyer) PARALLEL SESSIONS C C1. MC decision-making in transport & logistics (Collegezaal A) C2. Freight and logistics systems (Collegezaal B) C3. OR and decision support systems (Collegezaal C) C4. Traffic engineering and operation (Collegezaal D) C5. Air transport (Senaatszaal) FREE EVENING 23


WEDNESDAY (July 15th)

08:30 – 10:10

10:10 – 10:30

10:30 – 12:10

12:10 – 13:00 13:00 – 14:00

14:00 – 15:40

17:30 – 00:00

PARALLEL SESSIONS D D1. Cycling mobility and accessibility (Collegezaal A) D2. Freight and logistics systems (Collegezaal B) D3. OR and decision support systems (Collegezaal C) D4. Traffic engineering and operation (Collegezaal D) D5. Air transport (Senaatszaal) COFFEE BREAK (Foyer) PARALLEL SESSIONS E E1. Cycling mobility and accessibility (Collegezaal A) E2. Freight and logistics systems (Collegezaal B) E3. Shared mobility (Collegezaal C) E4. Traffic engineering and operation (Collegezaal D) E5. Air Transport (Senaatszaal) E6. Data and traveler information (Commissie-Kamer 3) LUNCH (Foyer) Invited Lecture by Nicole Adler (Auditorium) PARALLEL SESSIONS F F1. Public transport & operations (Collegezaal A) F2. Rail transport operations (Collegezaal B) F3. Shared mobility (Collegezaal C) F4. TrafficQuest special session on urban traffic management (Collegezaal D) F5. Transport demand and behavior (Senaatszaal) GALA DINNER (Rotterdam – Buses from the Aula)

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THURSDAY (July 16th)

08:30 – 10:10

10:10 – 10:30

10:30 – 12:10

12:10 – 13:00 13:00 – 14:00

14:00 – 15:40

15:40 – 16:10

PARALLEL SESSIONS G G1 Public transport & operations (Collegezaal A) G2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization (Collegezaal B) G3. Shared mobility (Collegezaal C) G4. Traffic engineering and operation (Collegezaal D) G5. Intelligent transportation systems (Senaatszaal) COFFEE BREAK PARALLEL SESSIONS H H1. Environment and emissions (Collegezaal A) H2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization (Collegezaal B) H3. Transport demand and behavior (Collegezaal C) H4. Urban network traffic flow (Collegezaal D) H5. Publishing in Open Access (Senaatszaal) LUNCH (Restaurant) Invited Lecture by Hani Mahmassani (Auditorium) PARALLEL SESSIONS I I1. Energy in transport and environment (Collegezaal A) I2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization (Collegezaal B) I3. Transport demand and behavior (Collegezaal C) I4. Urban network traffic flow (Collegezaal D) I5. Urban Mobility and accessibility (Senaatszaal) Closing session (Auditorium)

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Parallel Sessions TUESDAY (July 14th)

Tuesday 11:20 – 13:00

PARALLEL SESSIONS A

A1. MC decision-making in transport & logistics [Collegezaal A] Chair: Jafar Rezaei 55. A systematic review of multi-criteria decision-making applications in reverse logistics Jafar Rezaei 110. Logistical accessibility solutions alternative routes in mineral exploration area in the Amazon: the use of simulation models Maisa Tobias, Sérgio Gomes, Rui Ramos and Daniel Rodrigues 216. A framework for solving Real-Time Multi-Objective VRP Oren Nahum and Yuval Hadas 355. Multi-Criteria Appraisal of Multi-Modal Urban Public Transport Systems Mehdi Keyvan-Ekbatani and Oded Cats

A2. Autonomous and cooperative vehicle systems [Collegezaal B] Chair: Meng Wang 38. Model predictive control for motorway traffic with mixed manual and VACSequipped vehicles Claudio Roncoli, Ioannis Papamichail and Markos Papageorgiou 154. X2V-based information dissemination for highway congestion reduction Maxime Guériau, Romain Billot, Nour-Eddin El Faouzi, Salima Hassas and Frédéric Armetta 283. Optimizing the service zone location of electric automated taxis in train trip connection Xiao Liang, Gonçalo Correia and Bart van Arem 354. The Effects of Autonomous Heavy-Duty Vehicle Platooning to Overall Traffic Qichen Deng and Xiaoliang Ma

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A3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] Chair: Riccardo Rossi 121. Optimal Critical Infrastructure Retrofitting Model for Evacuation Planning Yuval Hadas, Riccardo Rossi, Massimiliano Gastaldi, Carlo Pellegrino, Mariano Angelo Zanini and Claudio Modena 291. Application of analytic hierarchy process for the prioritization of pavement sections with multiple distresses Sarfaraz Ahmed, Vedagiri Perumal and K V Krishna Rao 319. Optimizing Emergency Transportation through Multicommodity Quickest Paths Anna Melchiori and Antonino Sgalambro 353. A Simulated Annealing Algorithm Applied to the Flood Emergency Evacuation Problem Melissa Gama, Bruno F. Santos and Paola Scaparra

A4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] Chair: Francesco Viti 70. Lane distribution estimation for heterogeneous traffic flows Femke van Wageningen-Kessels and R. Eddie Wilson 189. Mesoscopic traffic state estimation based on a variational formulation of the LWR model in Lagrangian-space coordinates and Kalman filter Yufei Yuan, Aurelian Duret and Hans van Lint 207. Developing passenger car equivalents for freeways using microsimulation Orazio Giuffrè, Anna Granà, Raffaele Mauro, Ana Bastos Silva and Sandro Chiappone 272. Influence of Lane and Vehicle Subclass on Free-flow Speeds for Urban Roads in Heterogeneous Traffic Srijith Balakrishnan and R Sivanandan

28


A5. Land use & transport interactions [Senaatszaal] Chair: Ken Doust 18. Impacts on land use characteristics from ferry replacement projects. Two case studies from Norway María Díez Gutiérrez, Stig Nyland Andersen, Øyvind Lervik Nilsen and Trude Tørset 47.Using Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation Model to Estimate the Regional Impacts of High-Speed Rail in Spain Guineng Chen and João de Abreu E Silva 92. On the relationship between the built environment, driving behavior and energy consumption in electric car driving Andreas Braun and Wolfgang Rid 96. Modeling of shared spaces with multi-modal traffic using a multi-layer social force approach Federico Pascucci, Volker Berkhahn, Bernhard Friedrich, Nils Rinke and Chris Schiermeyer 99. Procedural Modelling of Urban Land Use and Road Networks Xiaoming Lyu, Qi Han and Bauke de Vries

29


Tuesday 14:00 – 15:40

PARALLEL SESSIONS B

B1 MC decision-making in transport & logistics [Collegezaal A] Chair: Jacek Żak 67. Analysis of AHP methods and the pairwise majority rule (PMR) for collective preference rankings of sustainable mobility solutions Michela Le Pira, Giuseppe Inturri, Matteo Ignaccolo and Alessandro Pluchino 165. Relation Between Land Use and Transportation Planning in the Scope of Smart Growth Strategies: Case Study of Denizli, Turkey Gorkem Gulhan and Huseyin Ceylan 206. A multiple criteria approach for evaluation of tunnel safety in Iran: A case study of Ardabil province Nima Dadashzadeh, Vahid Mirmohammadi and Jafar Azimi 379. Application of AHP and ELECTRE III/IV methods to multiple level, multiple criteria evaluation of urban transportation projects Jacek Żak and Mirosław Kruszynski

B2. Autonomous and cooperative vehicle systems [Collegezaal B] Chair: Claudio Roncoli 78. Valuation of travel attributes for using automated vehicles as egress transport of multimodal train trips Menno Yap, Gonçalo Correia and Bart van Arem 173. Driving behaviour in case of authority transitions between Adaptive Cruise Control and manual driving Silvia Varotto, Haneen Farah, Raymond Hoogendoorn, Bart van Arem and Serge Hoogendoorn 219. An application of autonomous vehicles to road pavement test Zhenhua Li, Bin Li, Lin Wang and Xianghui Song 269. Conventional, cooperative and automated: a framework for the assessment of the intermediate period until future mobility Evangelos Mitsakis, Jaap Vreeswijk, Josep Maria Salanova Grau, Robbin Blokpoel and Evangelos Mintsis

30


B3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] Chair: Yuval Hadas 290. Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Location Problem: The case of Thessaloniki Dimitrios Efthymiou, Katerina Chrysostomou, Maria Morfoulaki and Georgia Aifadopoulou 312. Memetic algorithm for computing shortest paths in multimodal transportation networks Omar Dib, Marie-Ange Manier and Alexandre Caminada 374. A Bilevel mathematical programming model to optimize the design of cycle paths Iñaki Gaspar, Juan Benavente, María Bordagaray, Jose Luis Moura and Ángel Ibeas 381. Using PROMETHEE and AHP in a Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA): methodological adaptations and visualisations Cathy Macharis, Koen Van Raemdonck and Sheida Hadavi

B4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] Chair: Jaume Barceló 46. Assessing the effect on network observability of route information applied in sensor location problems Marco Rinaldi, Francesco Viti and Francesco Corman 57. A new variant of discretized LWR model to reproduce capacity drop Yu Han, Yufei Yuan, Andreas Hegyi and Serge Hoogendoorn 84. Estimation of Delay at Signalized Intersections by Using Differential Evolution Algorithm Ersin Korkmaz, Ali Payıdar Akgüngör and Erdem Doğan 192. Data fusion to improve data quality - Queue length estimation with loop detector data and FCD Gerdien Klunder, Henk Taale and Leon Kester

31


B5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal] Chair: Milica Kalic 14. Exploring New Routes with the Belly: The Airline Route Development Problem Bruno F. Santos and Rob van Nunen 64. Using genetic algorithms to solve large scale airline network planning problems Katrin Kölker and Klaus Lütjens 238. Evaluation of intermediate stop operations in long-haul flights Sander Hartjes and Frank Bos 247. Network strategies for airlines in competitive envrionment Danica Babic and Milica Kalic

32


Tuesday 16:00 – 17:40

PARALLEL SESSIONS C

C1 MC decision-making in transport & logistics [Collegezaal A] Chair: Oren Nahum 73. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), or multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) or both: politicians’ perspective in transport policy appraisal Jan Anne Annema, Jafar Rezaei and Niek Mouter 100. Multi-criteria optimization for joint maintenance and spare part provisioning system: a simulation study Peter Chemweno, Peter Nganga Muchiri, Mohammad Sheikhalishahi and Liliane Pintelon 102. A traffic enforcement camera operational model Mali Sher, Nicole Adler and Shalom Hakkert 153. Use of DEA and PROMETHEE II to assess the performance of older drivers Seddigheh Babaee, Maryam Bagherikahvarin, Renaud Sarrazin, Yongjun Shen and Elke Hermans 373. Comparative analysis of multiple criteria evaluations of suppliers in different industries Jacek Żak

C2. Freight and logistics systems [Collegezaal B] Chair: Rosário Macário 20. E-grocery and last mile logistics: do we need a supply-chain reference model? Guido Perboli, Edoardo Fadda, Luca Gobbato, Francesca Perfetti and Roberto Tadei 150. Exploiting Travel Time Information for Reliable Routing in City Logistics Patrick-Oliver Groß, Marlin Wolf Ulmer, Jan Fabian Ehmke and Dirk Christian Mattfeld 195. A comprehensive framework for measuring performance in a Third-Party Logistics Provider Maria Leonor Domingues, Vasco Reis and Rosário Macário 226. Impact of a cooperative traffic management on city logistic routing Felix Köster, Marlin Ulmer and Dirk C. Mattfeld

33


C3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] Chair: Jorge Freire de Sousa 157. A MIP Heuristic for Multi Port Stowage Planning Daniela Ambrosino, Massimo Paolucci and Anna Sciomachen 188. Periodic Capacitated Vehicle Routing for Retail Distribution of Fuel Oils Pasquale Carotenuto, Stefano Giordani, Simone Massari and Fabrizio Vagaggini 237. Simulation of Offshore Supply Operations Gustavo Cunha de Bittencourt and Edilson Fernandes de Arruda 294. The problem of schedule offshore supply port operations Rennan Danilo Seimetz Chagas, Virgilio Jose Martins Ferreira Filho, Laura Bahiense and Bruno Ferreira Vieira

C4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] Chair: Femke van Wageningen-Kessels 158. Combined solution of capacity expansion and signal setting problems for signalized road networks Ozgur Baskan and Cenk Ozan 169. Vehicle specific behaviour in macroscopic traffic modelling through stochastic advection invariant Simeon Calvert, Henk Taale, Maaike Snelder and Serge Hoogendoorn 315. Evaluation of incident management impacts using stochastic dynamic traffic assignment Anil Yazici, Camille Kamga and Kaan Ozbay 324. Better convergence for dynamic traffic assignment methods Henk Taale and Adam Pel

34


C5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal] Chair: Bruno Santos 43. Managing European Air Traffic Control Provision: a Network Congestion Game Nicole Adler, Eran Hanany and Stef Proost 62. Peak-load pricing for the European Air Traffic Management system Tatjana Bolic, Lorenzo Castelli and Desirée Rigonat 250. Airport Ramsey Pricing: Application to Airports in Taiwan Chia Yi Shih and Jin Ru Yen 251. Airport Marginal-Cost Pricing: Application to Airports in Taiwan Chia Ping Tsou and Jin Ru Yen

35


WEDNESDAY (July 15th)

Wednesday 08:30 – 10:10

PARALLEL SESSIONS D

D1. Cycling mobility and accessibility [Collegezaal A] Chair: Tiago Farias 3. GPS-Data Analysis of a Free-Floating Bike Sharing System and Application of a Relocation Strategy Svenja Reiss and Klaus Bogenberger 9. Customer Survey Results of a free-floating Bike Sharing System in Germany Florian Paul and Klaus Bogenberger 56. A preliminary analysis over the factors related with the possession of an electric bike Paola Astegiano and Chris Tampère 305. Optimal location of bike-sharing stations Ines Frade and Anabela Ribeiro

D2. Freight and logistics systems [Collegezaal B] Chair: Cathy Macharis 268. Simulating the Port Wet Infrastructure: Review and Assessment Xavier Bellsolà Olba, Winnie Daamen, Tiedo Vellinga and Serge P. Hoogendoorn 286. Optimization of the Crane Operations in Rail-Rail Transshipment Terminals Sam Heshmati, Maria Antónia Carravilla and José Fernando Oliveira 306. Combining multiple trips for empty movements minimization in a seaport environment Claudia Caballini, Ilaria Rebecchi and Simona Sacone 363. Inventory Location Problem with Risk Pooling Effect: A Performance Analysis Between Different Formulations Gustavo Cunha de Bittencourt, Virgilio José Martins Ferreira Filho and Laura Silvia Bahiense Da Silva Leite

36


D3. OR and decision support systems [Collegezaal C] Chair: António P. Antunes 139. Development of Coordinated Ramp-Metering based on Multi-Objective Nonlinear Optimization Technique: traffic and safety Habib Haj Salem, Nadir Farhi and Jean Patrick Lebacque 232. Management of the access charges level for the use of railway infrastructure by bee colony optimization Mirjana Bugarinovic, Tatjana Davidovic and Branislav Boskovic 322. Proposition of agent based simulation-optimization heuristics to the bicycles repositioning problem bike sharing systems Thiago Brito, Rodolfo Silva, Gabriel Pontes 389. Optimization approach to motorway toll pricing João A. Zeferino, Diana R. Jorge, António P. Antunes and Ana R. Gomes

D4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] Chair: Yufei Yuan 116. Traffic indicators, accidents and rain: some relationships calibrated on a French urban motorway network. Maurice Aron, Régine Seidowsky, Romain Billot and Nour-Eddin El Faouzi 142. Iterative optimization for adaptive anticipatory control in urban traffic networks Wei Huang, Chris Tampère and Francesco Viti 297. Modified Social Force Model for Pedestrian Walking Behavior at Sidewalks Siddharth S M P and Vedagiri Perumal 372. Multicriteria evaluation of the impacts on drivers and pedestrians of implementing a transit system with full priority in a congested, at grade intersection – a case study Luís Vasconcelos and João Teixeira

37


D5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal] Chair: Tatjana Bolic 7. Matching the Airport Runway Capacity to Demand: Analysis and Modelling some Solutions Milan Janic 10. Finding Robust Solutions to the Flight to Gate Assignment Problem using Flight Presence Probabilities Dries Visser and Oscar van Schaik 36. Functional relationship between the runway system and apron/gate area under different demand characteristics Bojana Mirkovic and Vojin Tosic 144. Fusion of two metaheuristic approaches to solve the flight gate assignment problem Mario Marinelli, Gianvito Palmisano, Michele Ottomanelli and Mauro Dell'Orco

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Wednesday 10:30 – 12:10

PARALLEL SESSIONS E

E1. Cycling mobility and accessibility [Collegezaal A] Chair: Anabela Ribeiro 141. Interventions in urban bicycle infrastructure, lessons from Dutch and Danish cases Cornelis Dirk Van Goeverden, Thomas Alexander Sick Nielsen, Henrik Harder and Rob Van Nes 167. Growing from incipient to large cycle networks in hilly consolidated urban areas: the case of Lisbon Filipe Moura, Joana Magalhães Silva and Luis Picado Santos 180. Designing optimal routes for different classes of cyclo tourists Federico Malucelli, Maddalena Nonato and Alessandro Giovannini 201. A bicycle demand model for a sample of Tehran, Iran Amirreza Mamdoohi and Vajiheh Amini

E2. Freight and logistics systems [Collegezaal B] Chair: Milan Janic 34. Locating and Designing a Biorefinery Supply Chain in Navarre under uncertainty: an Stochastic Facility Location Problem Case Adrian Serrano, Javier Faulin, Pablo Astiz, Mercedes Sanchez and Javier Belloso 37. Bi-level optimization in the context of intermodal pricing: a state of art. Christine Tawfik and Sabine Limbourg 48. AFEX: An autonomous freight exchange concept René Föhring and Stephan Zelewski 386. Modeling market concentration on Intermodal Freight Transport Networks Hamid Saeedi, Bart Wiegmans and Rob Zuidwijk

39


E3. Shared mobility [Collegezaal C] Chair: Gonçalo Correia 184. One-way carsharing: comparing station based and free float systems through agent-based modeling Mafalda Mendes-Lopes, Luis M. Martinez, Gonçalo Correia, Tomás Eiró and Henrique Cordeiro 224. A MIP Model to Optimize Real Time Maintenance and Relocation Operations in One-way Carsharing Systems Gonçalo Santos and Gonçalo Correia 134. Improving carsharing reservation systems by variable quality of service and relocations operations Goran Molnar and Gonçalo Correia 309. Cost-benefit Analysis of a Simulated Carsharing System for the city of Lisbon Daniel Guimarães, Ana Vasconcelos, Gonçalo Correia and Tiago Farias

E4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] Chair: Adam Pel 68. Assessing the Sustainability Impact of Variable Speed Limit Under Connected Vehicle Environment Bidoura Khondaker and Lina Kattan 127. Effect of Adverse Weather Conditions on Istanbul Motorways Göker Aksoy and Kemal Selcuk Ogut 257. Differences in Network Reliability Improvement by Several Importance Indices Takahiro Nagae and Hiroshi Wakabayashi 390. Integrated Signal Control and Route Guidance based on Back-Pressure Principles Henk Taale, Joost van Kampen and Serge Hoogendoorn

40


E5. Air Transport [Senaatszaal] Chair: Dries Visser 125. Comparison of two MCDM methodologies in aircraft type selection problem Slavica Dozic and Milica Kalic 186. Aircraft Schedule Recovery Problem – A Dynamic Modeling Framework for Daily Operations Wieger Vos, Bruno F. Santos and Thomas Omondi 229. Maximizing operational readiness in military aviation by optimizing flight and maintenance planning Mathijs Verhoeff, Wim Verhagen and Ricky Curran 124. Assessing the impact of air liberalisation using a long-term air passenger demand model Vincent Benezech and Luis Martinez

E6. Data and traveler information [Commissie-Kamer 3] Chair: Dirk C. Mattfeld 16. Modelling of accelerometer data for travel mode detection by hierarchical application of binomial logistic regression Muhammad Awais Shafique and Eiji Hato 76. Travel time estimation between loop detectors and FCD. A compatibility study on the Lille network, France Simon Cohen and Zoi Christoforou 112. User group evaluation based on survey data Bálint Caesar and Domokos Esztergár-Kiss 132. Analyzing Traffic Patterns on Street Segments Based on GPS Data using R Emilian Necula 359. National and Regional Road Network Optimisation Using Mobile Phone Data Yihong Wang, Gonçalo H. A. Correia, Erik de Romph and Bruno F. Santos

41


Wednesday 14:00 – 15:40

PARALLEL SESSIONS F

F1 Public transport & operations [Collegezaal A] Chair: Milan Krbalek 19. Bus lanes, boarding and headway holding – results and validity of a simulation assessment tool Jens West and Oded Cats 29. Tariff zone planning for public transport companies Sven Müller and Knut Haase 285. Quantifying the effects of activity concentration at airports on public transport using an iterative reduction procedure Hermann Orth and Ulrich Weidmann 296. Enhancing the service quality of transit systems in rural areas by flexible transport services Khaled Saeed and Fumitaka Kurauchi 340. Decisions and Performance in Public Transport Management: Case Studies from Porto, Hamburg and Dresden Sebastian Ebert and Álvaro Fernando de Oliveira Costa

F2. Rail transport operations [Collegezaal B] Chair: Pawel Hanczar 123. A qualitative model to evaluate the financial effects of innovations in the rail sector. Dirk Bruckmann, Ulrich Weidmann and Axel Bomhauer-Beins 218. Extended BIP models for the multistage classification in marshalling yards Ivan Belosevic, Sanjin Milinković, Miloš Ivić, Norbert Pavlović and Milana Kosijer 377. Optimal train dispatching in Main-line with complex stations: the case of Tiburtina and Monfalcone stations Maurizio Boccia, Stefano Foglietta, Gianmaria Leo, Carlo Mannino and Paolo Perticaroli 388. Modelling the onset of congestion due to stochastic behavior of the components of the railroads system Pierre-Antoine Cuniasse, Christine Buisson, Joaquin Rodriguez, Emmanuel Teboul and David De Almeida

42


F3. Shared mobility [Collegezaal C] Chair: Johannes Mueller 52. Trip pricing of one-way station-based carsharing networks with zone and time of day price variations Diana Jorge, Goran Molnar and Gonçalo Correia 371. Optimization model for flexible carsharing systems planning António P. Antunes, Miguel G. Santos and Nuno A. Ribeiro 194. Mathematical model for the study of relocation strategies in one-way carsharing systems Aurélien Carlier, Alix Munier Kordon and Witold Klaudel 74. Time Series Analysis of Booking Data of a Free-Floating Carsharing System in Berlin Johannes Müller and Klaus Bogenberger

F4. TrafficQuest special session on urban traffic management [Collegezaal D] Chair: Henk Taale 211. Analysis of driving behavior with information for passing through signalized intersection by driving simulator Yukimasa Matsumoto and Peng Guanlu 242. Discharge Headway Model for Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions Sanjay Radhakrishnan and Gitakrishnan Ramadurai 281. On the short-term prediction of traffic state: an application on urban freeways in Rome Umberto Crisalli, Livia Mannini, Carrese Stefano and Ernesto Cipriani 352. Adaptive Group-based Signal Control by Reinforcement Learning Junchen Jin and Xiaoliang Ma

43


F5. Transport demand and behavior [Senaatszaal] Chair: Caspar G. Chorus 8. Paving the way for superstar-destinations: models of convex demand for quality Caspar Chorus 54. A mixture latent Markov model to capture heterogeneity in people’s over-time transition patterns between mono- and multimodal travel patterns Maarten Kroesen 155. On the consistency between travelers’ satisfaction and utility: the case of the University of Luxembourg Sprumont Francois, Paola Astegiano and Francesco Viti 215. Attitudes towards congestion charging: results from a stated preference survey in Rome Paolo Delle Site, Valerio Gatta and Edoardo Marcucci

44


THURSDAY (July 16th)

Thursday 08:30 – 10:10

PARALLEL SESSIONS G

G1. Public transport & operations [Collegezaal A] Chair: Oded Cats 75. Delay Management in Public Transportation: Service Regularity Issues and Crew Re-scheduling Emanuele Tresoldi, Federico Malucelli, Stefano Gualandi and Samuela Carosi 256. Expanding Route Generation Algorithm for Transit Network Design Using a Heuristic Method Iran Khanzad, Seyedehsan Seyedabrishami, Amir Ali Zarinmehr and Amir Reza Mamdoohi 277. A real-time information system for public transport in case of delays and service disruptions Maurizio Bruglieri, Francesco Bruschi, Alberto Colorni, Alessandro Luè, Roberto Nocerino and Vincenzo Rana 370. Optimization approach to transit funding through parking fees Joana Cavadas and António P. Antunes 391. Exploring train passengers’ arrival rate using smart card data Neema Nassir, Mark Hickman, Hasti Tajtehranifard, Oded Cats and Masoud Fadaie Oshyani

G2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization [Collegezaal B] Chair: Nikola Besinovic 32. Maintenance Scheduling in Rolling Stock Circulations in Rapid Transit Networks Javier Andrés Calvo, Luis Cadarso and Ángel Marín 98. Utilization of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces in dynamic discrete choice models: An application to the high-speed railway timetabling problem Ricardo Garcia-Rodenas and Maria Luz López-García 205. A methodology for assessing the feasibility of fleet compositions with dynamic demand Antonio Placido and Luca D'Acierno 288. Practical Macroscopic Evaluation and Comparison of Railway Timetables 45


Peter Sels, Dirk Cattrysse and Pieter Vansteenwegen

G3. Shared mobility [Collegezaal C] Chair: Katarzyna Marczuk 24. A Search for Factors that Stimulate Car Drivers to change from Car to Carpool in City Center oriented Work Trips Peter Van der Waerden, Andreas Lem and Wim Schaefer 118. Assessing the Impact of Facility Locations and Fleet Sizes on the Performance of Automated Mobility on Demand Systems Katarzyna Marczuk, Harold Soh, Carlos Azevedo, Emilio Frazzoli and Der-Horng Lee 131. Anticipatory service network design for bike sharing systems Bruno Albert Neumann Saavedra, Patrick Vogel and Dirk Christian Mattfeld 140. A new Agent-based model to simulate the impact on urban mobility of shared mobility systems with self-driving vehicles Luis Martinez and Jose Viegas 176. Short-term strategies for Stochastic Inventory Routing in Bike Sharing Systems Jan Brinkmann, Marlin Ulmer and Dirk Mattfeld

G4. Traffic engineering and operation [Collegezaal D] Chair: Ludovic Leclercq 83. A new node model based on CTM-UT with capacity determination Marco Tiriolo and Ludovica Adacher 147. Analysis of Tradable Bottleneck Permits scheme when marginal utility of toll cost changes among drivers Katsuya Sakai, Takahiko Kusakabe and Yasuo Asakura 212. Mesoscopic multiclass traffic flow models: multilane modelling and application to diverge Aurélien Duret and Guillaume Costeseque 310. Investigation on the Influence of Operational Characteristics on Safety Performance of Multilane Rural Highways Praveen V and Veeraragavan A

46


G5 Intelligent transportation systems [Senaatszaal] Chair: María Luz López-García 28. Evaluation of drivers’ responsiveness to an intelligent electronic advice of traffic code violation Stefano Carrese, Marialisa Nigro and Sergio Maria Patella 120. A Fuzzy Logic-Based Accidents Detection System Using Traffic Data Riccardo Rossi, Massimiliano Gastaldi, Gregorio Gecchele and Valeria Barbaro 162. Design and implementation of a Dynamic Speed Limit System in Lille (A25 suburban motorway) David Gil, Thomas Durlin and Patrick Palmier 177. Drivers’ compliance with real-time in-car route advice: a large-scale empirical evaluation perspective Isabel Wilmink, Tamara Djukic, Eline Jonkers and Maaike Snelder 378. Design of passenger public transportation solutions based on autonomous vehicles and their multiple criteria comparison with traditional forms of passenger transportation Jacek Żak and Lukasz Owczarzak

47


Thursday 10:30 – 12:10

PARALLEL SESSIONS H

H1. Environment and emissions [Collegezaal A] Chair: Isabel Wilmink 11. Assessment of PM10 inhalation in daily commutes: case-study of students in Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon Inês D. Do Vale, Ana S. Vasconcelos and Gonçalo O. Duarte 25. Comparison of particulate matter inhalation for users of different transport modes in urban areas Maria João Ramos, Ana Vasconcelos and Marta Faria 87. Quantifying the relationship between saturation rate and emissions in different roundabouts’ layouts Margarida Coelho, Luis Vasconcelos, Paulo Fernandes and Ana Bastos 369. Effect of traffic restrictions on urban air quality in a midsize city Oxana Tchepel, Daniela Dias and António P. Antunes

H2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization [Collegezaal B] Chair: Rob M.P. Goverde 85. A Routing Filter for the Real-Time Railway Traffic Management problem based on Ant Colony Optimization Marcella Samà, Paola Pellegrini, Andrea D'Ariano, Joaquin Rodriguez and Dario Pacciarelli 174. What about train length and energy efficiency of freight trains in rescheduling models? Ambra Toletti, Valerio De Martinis and Ulrich A. Weidmann 225. The short-term car flow planning model in rail freight company – case study. Paweł Hanczar and Piotr Peternek 308. An efficient and realistic railway system simulator Jean Damay and Adrien Boillot

48


H3. Transport demand and behavior [Collegezaal C] Chair: Paolo Delle Site 22. The role of accessibility and connectivity in mode choice. A structural equation modeling approach. Dimitrios Papaioannou and Luis Miguel Martinez 23. Predicting travel mode of individuals using machine learning methods Hichem Omrani and Philippe Gerber 97. The influence of users’ route choice for the dynamic travel demand estimation Marialisa Nigro, Ernesto Cipriani, Luca Di Pietrantonio and Akmal Abdelfatah 280. Bayesian networks for multimodal mode choice behaviour modelling: a case study for the cross border workers of Luxembourg Tai-Yu Ma 287. Is a temporary change in mode choice a motivation to switch individuals travel behavior? Experiment with Electric Bicycles Nikoleta Krousouloudi, Amalia Polydoropoulou and Athena Tsirimpa

H4. Urban network traffic flow [Collegezaal D] Chair: Mehdi Keyvan-Ekbatani 122. On the Network-Wide Relationship between Average Flow, Exit Flow, and Input Flow Meead Saberi, Ali Zockaie and Hani Mahmassani 267. New traffic light control strategy based on probe vehicle data Jaap Vreeswijk, Robbin Blokpoel, Niels Van den Bosch and Guus Sluijsmans 387. Traffic flow within a two-dimensional continuum anisotropic network Kwami Seyram Sossoe, Jean-Patrick Lebacque, Amar Mokrani and Habib Haj-Salem 234. Performance assessment of turbo-roundabouts in corridor Ana Bastos Silva, Pedro Mariano and João Silva

49


H5. Open Access Publication (special session) [Senaatszaal] Chair: Maarten Kroesen The goal of this session is to increase awareness about open access among researchers and to stimulate open-access publishing. Up till now, the discussion about open access has primarily taken place between publishers, (university) libraries and research institutes. This session aims to also involve the researchers, the actual authors of the papers, in this discussion. During the session three invited speakers will present their view on open access publishing from their specific roles: Chris Pringle, who is publisher at Elsevier, Annemiek van der Kuil, who represents the TU Delft library, and Caspar Chorus, who is editor-in-chief of EJTIR, a successful open access transportation journal. After this, we aim to have a lively discussion between the speakers and the audience. Your input will be much appreciated! This session is sponsored by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).

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Thursday 14:00 – 15:40

PARALLEL SESSIONS I

I1. Energy in transport and environment [Collegezaal A] Chair: Nadir Farhi 88. Cycling mobility – A Life Cycle Assessment based approach Margarida Coelho and Diogo Almeida 101. Model-based Estimation of Private Public Charging Demand Maximilian Schüßler and Klaus Bogenberger 152. Microscopic traffic simulation of eco-driving systems using real-world vehicle models Martijn van Noort, Isabel Wilmink, Johan Olstam, Andreas Tapani and James Tate 261. Simulation Model for Estimation of the Energy Consumption of an Electric Bus Line Diego Alejandro Giménez and Anabela Salgueiro Narciso Ribeiro 298. Are tech-friendly users keener on buying an AFV? Exploring future car purchase choice. Ioannis Tsouros, Amalia Polydoropoulou and Athena Tsirimpa

I2. Railway traffic modeling and optimization [Collegezaal B] Chair: Ricardo García-Ródenas 27. Optimal Investment into the Expansion of Railway Networks – A Case Study for Germany Andreas Bärmann, Alexander Martin and Francisco López-Ramos 108. A new approach to crew scheduling in rapid transit networks Manuel Fuentes González, Luis Cadarso and Ángel Marín 130. Railway infrastructure maintenance - a survey of planning problems and conducted research Tomas Lidén 276. Single wagon load production schemes optimization using WAGONSIM (agentbased simulation tool) Albert Mancera, Dirk Bruckmann and Ulrich Weidmann

51


I3. Transport demand and behavior [Collegezaal C] Chair: Catherine Berthelon 94. Monotonous simulated driving, driving experience, and low doses of alcohol: behavioral, subjective and psychophysiological measures Laurent P. Ferrier, Edith Galy Galy and Catherine Berthelon Berthelon 245. Understanding Travel Mode Choice to Special Events Miguel Figueiredo, Ana Bastos Silva and Gonçalo Correia 252. A new approach to understand modal and pedestrians route choice in Portugal Ana Paula Barros, Luis Miguel Garrido Martínez and José Manuel Viegas 313. Modelling passengers’ activity choices in airport terminal before security check: the case of Portela airport in Lisbon Sofia Kalakou and Filipe Moura

I4. Urban network traffic flow [Collegezaal D] Chair: Meead Saberi 241. A robust framework for the estimation of dynamic OD trip matrices for reliable traffic management Jaume Barcelo and Lidia Montero 133. A semi-decentralized control strategy for urban traffic. Nadir Farhi, Cyril Nguyen Van Phu, Mouna Amir, Habib Haj-Salem and Jean-Patrick Lebacque 284. Performance Evaluation Of Continuum Models’ Numerical Solutions In ShortTerm Traffic Predictions M. Sreekumar and Tom Mathew 217. Estimation of missing flow at junctions using control plan and floating car data Xiao Xiao, Yusen Chen and Yufei Yuan

52


I5. Urban Mobility and accessibility [Senaatszaal] Chair: Leonardo Lamorgese 82. Agent-based modelling of traffic behaviour in growing metropolitan areas Karsten Hager, Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Rid and Prof. Dr. Jürgen Rauh 203. Strategic Multimodal model with endogenous demand choices and induced supply response Vaclav Plevka and Chris M. J. TampÈre 304. The Influence of Transportation Infrastructures and Mobility Patterns on the Evolution of Sprawl in Portuguese Medium Cities between 1991 and 2011 João de Abreu E Silva, Marcos Correia and Guineng Chen 320. Strategic assessment of equity related problems of Lisbon’s mobility network Camila Garcia, Carlos Felipe Loureiro and Rosario Macario

53


Abstracts of presentations ordered by paper number

55


GPS-Data Analysis of a Free-Floating Bike Sharing System and Application of a Relocation Strategy

Svenja Reiss a*, Klaus Bogenberger a a

University of the Federal Armed Forces, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85579 Munich, Germany

Abstract – Paper 3 Public Bike Sharing Systems provide a progressive option for urban mobility, not only for commuters but also for spontaneous users and tourists. Such systems are only reasonable, if the bikes are available where the users need them at a certain time though. In station-based bike sharing systems e.g. as in Paris, there are two issues: If a bike station is empty, the user can’t rent a bike and either has to wait for another user to return a bike or find another station, which claims a lot of patience from the user. But the other way around – if a bike station is full, it’s even worse: In most systems it’s not possible to return the bike then, so the user can either wait for another person to rent a bike and get an available docking station or he has to find another station, even if this is not his actual destination. In so-called free-floating systems as it’s implemented in Munich, at least the full station problem does not appear: The user is allowed to rent and return a bike within a clearly defined operating area. However, on one hand there are zones, where a shortage of returned bikes occurs. No bikes are available but needed there. On the other hand there are zones, where too many bikes were returned but the demand for renting a bike there is too low. Based on a detailed GPS-Data Analysis for the bike sharing system in Munich, spatio-temporal mobility patterns of the usage were identified: Target groups are determined by time of the day and trip duration. A weather correlation analysis illustrates the impact of precipitation and temperature on sharing bike trips. Depending on different factors like weather conditions, time of the day and holidays/weekends, one can forecast the expected demand and detect a possible shortage in bikes at a certain time and place. In order to obtain an optimal distribution of bikes within the operating area a reasonable relocation strategy was created. By relocating at least some part of the fleet, it’s ensured that the demand for bikes is optimally satisfied in time and space. Keywords: bike sharing; relocation; weather impact on bike use; GPS data analysis

* Presenting author E-mail address: [email protected]

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Matching the Airport Runway Capacity to Demand: Analysis and Modelling some Solutions Milan Janic a,b * a

b

Department of Transport & Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department of Air Transport and Operations , Faculty of Aerospace Engineering Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 7 This paper deals with analysis and modelling of a given short- to medium-term solution(s) for matching usually the constrained airport runway capacity to usually growing airside demand. This solution(s) consists of deploying the new technologies supporting the innovative operational procedures developing in the European SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) and U.S. NextGen (Next Generation) development programs. They are expected to mainly contribute to increasing of the airport runway landing capacity. In such context, the analysis implies elaboration of the characteristics of the given technologies and procedures and conditions where they could be applied – the congested capacity-constrained airport runway system. Modelling implies development of the analytical models for estimating the effects/impacts of particular new technologies and operational procedures on the given runway system “ultimate” and “practical” capacity. The models are applied to the system of two closely spaced parallel runways at Dubai International airport (DXB) (United Arab Emirates). The results have indicated that the innovative operational procedures supported by new technologies could have some potential for increasing both the “ultimate” and “practical” capacity of two closely-spaced parallel runways at the given airport (DXB) under given conditions, and consequently contribute to postponing their full saturation. Keywords: BEVs; charging infrastructure; charging demand


57


Paving the way for superstar-destinations: models of convex demand for quality Caspar G. Chorusa* a

Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 8 This paper presents and compares simple discrete choice models that generate a convex demand for quality, and thereby predict the existence of superstars. When compared to their competition, superstar artists, museums, or football players are much more popular than differences in quality would suggest at first sight. Although convexity of demand for quality is a known precondition for the existence of superstars, it remains unclear what mechanism might cause this imperfect substitution between different quality levels. The paper proposes several choice models that generate a convexity of demand for quality, thereby paving the way for the existence of superstars. These models are compared using an analytical example. Numerical simulations show that each of the proposed models has the potential to generate superstar effects, although for most models the effect decreases for larger choice sets. Results suggest that including reference-dependency into choice models helps overcome this potential limitation, as it leads to superstar effects for larger choice sets. Keywords: Superstars; destination choice; convex demand; decision-making; reference-dependency


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Customer Survey Results of a free-floating Bike Sharing System in Germany Floria Paula* and Klaus Bogenberger a

Universität der Bundeswehr München, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85577 München, Germany

Abstract – Paper 9 A fast growing number of bike sharing systems in large cities all over the world contribute to a bicycle friendly transport policy. Rental bikes are often used as a starting point for a radical change in urban and transport planning and are observed by media and population with great interest. An increasing number of German cities also have implemented modern and comprehensive bike sharing systems, which generated remarkable user response over the last years and thereby contributed to a broader acceptance of cycling. Each city has made bike-share its own, adapting it to the local context, including the city’s population density, transport infrastructure, topography, weather conditions and culture. Besides various improvements over the last decade in booking, tracking or smart mobility solutions, the integration of pedal electrical bicycles, so-called pedelecs, into existing schemes of public bike sharing provides not only a promising enhancement but also a challenging task for a further development of this kind of mobility offer. To analyze the demand of the users and to verify the requirements for such an advanced public bike sharing offer, an online survey was carried out among 454 customers of Call a Bike (a free-floating bike sharing system of the German Rail, Deutsche Bahn), as frequent users of rental bikes in Germany. The survey focused on usage, experience and performance of bike sharing offers in German cities as well as the appreciation of pedelecs. A closer look on user habits and requests in the cities of Munich and Stuttgart, offering different bike sharing modes, reveal specific needs and local characteristics. Furthermore the results of the survey indicate a strong interest of customers to test electrical bicycles within the existing bike sharing system in Munich. They also show a broad skepticism among the participants to station-based bike sharing offers and a strong request to maintain the so-called free-floating scheme, with rental and return of bikes at any place within the operating area, as it is implemented in Munich for many years.

Keywords: customer-survey; bike-sharing; free-floating; pedelecs


59


Finding Robust Solutions to the Flight to Gate Assignment Problem using Flight Presence Probabilities Oscar van Schaik a, Hendrikus G. Vissera* a

Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, P.O.Box 5058, 2600GB, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 10 The problem of assigning gates to flights is an important decision problem in the daily operations at major airports. The assignment of aircraft to gates is a complicated task that is still done without significant computer-based support at many airports. A range of computer-based methods have been developed over the years for solving the gate assignment problem. Within our research group two successful programs have been developed in which the gate assignment problem was formulated as a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem. Although both programs produce efficient solutions under ideal conditions, the resulting schedules turn out to be insufficiently robust in case disrupting events occur. The aim of the present study is to develop an approach that renders the previously developed conventional MILP-based gate assignment algorithms more robust in the sense that the amount of re-planning needed due to deviations from the expected arrival and departure times can be kept to a minimum. The proposed assignment algorithm aims to find a robust solution by including buffers (gaps) in the schedule for accommodating disrupting unexpected events. However, rather than assigning (fixed) buffer times directly, our approach uses the so-called “flight overlap” probability, i.e., the probability that two aircraft seek to utilize the same gate at the same point in time, to size the individual buffer times. The gate occupancy overlap probability of an aircraft pair directly follows from the individual “flight presence” probabilities of the two flights in the pair which, in turn, are determined by compiling historical punctuality data. Based on a specified characteristic of a flight (e.g., airline, origin/destination, season), the probability distribution of a flight’s presence over time can be created using historical punctuality data for all flights that share that particular characteristic. The variation in these probabilities can be very significant. These observed probability differences are exploited in the model through the introduction of the maximum overlap probability threshold. This value ensures that no two flights are assigned to the same gate if this would lead to an overlap probability higher than this specified value. To permit a trade-off between “performance” and “robustness”, the gate assignment model has been developed such that it is able to create a Pareto-front of optimal solutions by considering a range of different maximum overlap probability threshold values. The usefulness of the model has been demonstrated in a case study pertaining to Schiphol Airport in The Netherlands. Keywords: Air transport operations, Operations Research and decision support systems


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The Airline Route Development Problem: The Importance of Belly Cargo Bruno F. Santos a* and Rob van Nunen a a

Delft University of Technology, Air Transport and Operations, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS

Abstract – Paper 14 This paper presents an innovative modelling framework for the strategic planning of airlines networks. The framework comprises a demand model, a market share model and a route planning optimization model. The research presented mainly focus on belly cargo - i.e., the cargo stowed under the passengers’ deck of an aircraft. Since passenger and belly cargo share the same capacity, aircraft fleet is allocated to each route in the network in order to match in the necessary combined capacity. The objective of the route planning model is to maximize the profit of the airline in the presence of both passenger and cargo revenue. The costs are the direct operating cost with additional handling costs incurred due to the additional belly cargo carried. The decision variables in the model are the flow of passengers and cargo over the network, the allocation of aircraft types to routes and the frequency per flight leg of each fleet type. The route model is coupled with the cargo demand and the market share model. Given that service frequency is based on demand and that demand is highly influenced by frequency, these models are solved iteratively. The case study of a main African carrier is used to validate the modelling framework and to illustrate its applicability. Results show that belly cargo has an impact on the decision process during route planning – it was found that including belly cargo in the route development problem yields significant different results compared to the model were only passenger demand is considered. In some cases, the differences could be in stopping operations in some routes or in initiating the operations in new routes. However, in most cases the impact is on the fleet assignment and, consequently, on the frequency of the air service offered. Keywords: route planning; airline strategic planning; belly cargo; network design


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Modelling of Accelerometer data for travel mode detection by hierarchical application of binomial logistic regression Muhammad Awais Shafique a,b,*, Eiji Hatob a

University of Engineering and Technology, GT road Lahore 54890, Pakistan The University of Tokyo, 3-1-7, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

b

Abstract – Paper 16 Household trip data collection is essential for design and construction of transportation infrastructure. Conventionally, this information is collected by travel surveys, which require the respondents to answer a list of questions targeting their daily travelling. As the responses depend on the memory of the respondents, inaccuracies usually occur during the reporting process. These inaccuracies include erroneous reporting of starting and ending times, forgetting short trips and providing biased answers. In addition to this, the response ratio is very low because of the huge amount of efforts required on part of the respondents. To reduce these shortcomings and to improve the accuracy of the collected data, a lot of research is currently being focused on inferring the important information from data collected automatically with the help of devices like smartphone. The current study explores the possibility of identifying the travel mode by applying the binomial logistic regression in a hierarchical manner, using the data collected by the accelerometer of the smartphone. A total of 639 trips, of varying lengths, were collected by participants in Kobe city, Japan, covering six modes namely, walk, bicycle, car, bus, train and subway. 80% trips recorded were made on foot, so to form a comparable scenario, the number of trips for walk was reduced. Binomial logistic regression was applied using three methods, i.e. ranking, one against rest and one against all. In ranking, the data was first split into motorized and nonmotorized modes. Then the non-motorized modes were further divided into walk and bicycle, whereas the motorized modes were divided into on road and on track, further splitting the on road modes into car and bus, and likewise the on track modes into train and subway. For one against rest, the data was split into mode walk and others. Then the remaining data was split into bicycle and others. Similarly, each mode was separated and with each turn the data kept on decreasing. The one against all method was essentially the same but this time the data was not decreased and for each mode the entire data was taken into consideration. Apart from train, all the other modes were successfully modelled with goodness of fit approaching to 1. The low goodness of fit in case of train was due to the wide range of accelerations recorded. Although, all the three methods demonstrated good outcomes, one against all method provided relatively better results. Keywords: Acceleration; Binomial Logistic Regression; Smartphone; Travel Mode

*


62


Impacts on land use characteristics from ferry replacement projects. Two case studies from Norway María Díez Gutiérreza,*, Stig Nylan Andersena,b, Øyvind Lervik Nilsena,c, Trude Tørseta a

Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of civil and transport engineering, 7491 Trondheim, Norway b Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Askedalen 4, 6863 Leikanger, Norway c Rambøll, Fjordgaten 15, 3103 Tønsberg, Norway

Abstract – Paper 18 This paper aims to improve the knowledge on how fixed links projects affect land use characteristics and society. Fixed links are bridges or tunnels that join areas previously separated by geographic barriers, e.g. fjords. These might cause significant travel time savings since they often replace ferry services, removing waiting time, increasing speed of travel and providing a flexible link 24 hours 7 days a week. The lack of accuracy when forecasting traffic volumes in fixed link projects has been shown in the few ex-post evaluations of these infrastructures. This leads to problems in the calculations of the toll fees and road capacity as both are based on traffic volumes. The over-underestimations might be due to the transport models used in the calculations. These models used in Norway do not account for potential changes in land use caused by a new infrastructure. Our research question is: What are the possible impacts on land use characteristics and travel behaviour by fixed links, in a Norwegian context? The selected methodology consists of time series analysis of traffic volumes, employer-employee data, population, construction and sales of dwellings, and company data. Two case studies north of Stavanger, one of the biggest cities in the West coast of Norway are analysed at mmunicipality level. The selected cases are islands previously connected by ferry. In addition, we also compare the cases to similar areas without the influence of a fixed link. The results indicate that changes in travel time and cost might trigger increase in attractiveness of the municipalities connected by the fixed links, leading to a growth in square metre price for residential buildings and construction rates. This generates an increase in population and a higher annual traffic growth than experienced before the fixed link was opened. Despite that, we do not find either an additional increase in the number of companies or changes on number of employees in existing companies. There are some differences in the impacts for both case studies that might be related to the travel time to the large city. We recommend observing more fixed link projects, using a time series analysis for the described variables, and relate the affected variables to the distance between the connected areas. In addition, we recommend eventually establishing a method to include land-use changes in the transport model. Keywords: Fixed link; regional development; land use; housing market; labour market


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Evaluating Bus Preferential Measures and Their Synergy Effects Jens Westa, Oded Catsb* a

Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden Department of Transport and Planning, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA, Delft, The Nederlands

b

Abstract – Paper 19 Simulation analysis allows studying the impacts of different public transport measures aimed at improving service quality. Microscopic simulation models are able to capture traffic dynamics, but usually lack the ability to model transit control and passenger behaviour at the network level. Hence, assessment of bus service improvements such as bus lanes, allowed boarding through all doors and headway-based holding control ideally requires a simulation model that combines features of both classical analytical models and microscopic simulation. However, as the usage of such models has been limited, their validity has hitherto remained low. BusMezzo, a dynamic transit operations and assignment model, was developed to enable the analysis and evaluation of transit performance and level of service under various system conditions. BusMezzo was implemented within a mesoscopic traffic simulation model and the different sources of transit operations uncertainty including traffic conditions, vehicle capacities, dwell times, vehicle schedules and service disruptions are modelled explicitly. This paper describes two case studies where assessment of bus service improvements in BusMezzo was tested and validated. In the first case study, the simulated network consisted of two bus lines with different supply and demand running partially parallel. According to this study, allowing passengers to board through all doors can in combination with a good holding strategy give large benefits in a transit network in the size of Stockholm. In the second case study, three commonly suggested measures of bus service regularity and performance improvement were evaluated together for a real-world high demand trunk line; bus lanes, boarding through all doors and headway-based holding. The model in BusMezzo was validated against empirical data and it was shown to predict travel time improvements well, while overestimating some of the headway variability effects. It turned out that all three measures had a positive system impact of some degree and that there were synergy effects. In total it was estimated that improved regularity and less bunching led to a 25 per cent reduction in passenger waiting times due to irregularity and more even passenger loads, that about half of the regularity improvements are attributed to the headway-based holding and that each passenger saved four minutes perceived journey time. These measures are relatively cheap compared to investments in new transit infrastructure and large societal gains can therefore be achieved. It is advisable to simulate alternative measures prior to their implementation to assess their impacts and refine their design.

Keywords: Public transport; Preferential measures; Headway control; Simulation model; Model validity


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E-grocery and Last Mile Logistics: Do We Need a Supply-Chain Reference Model? Guido Perbolia,b, Edoardo Faddaa*, Luca Gobbatoa, Francesca Perfettic, Roberto Tadeia a

DAUIN – Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy b

BDS s.r.l., Turin, Italy c

Touchware, Aosta,

Abstract – Paper 20 E-grocery is a new emerging and challenging business channel for the food & beverage market, enabling the consumers to purchase grocery products online. It combines the criticalities of distribution in urban areas (last mile logistics) with the distribution of fresh and perishable foods. In fact, several e-grocery companies already exist all around the world, but a large number of them failed because of the high cost and complexity in the fulfillment of online orders and distribution activities, which significantly affect e-grocery profitability. In the literature, several papers analyze e-grocery supply chains, identifying different order fulfillment and delivery options. From their considerations, it arises the importance of designing a profitable e-commerce business that combines a tailored value proposition and operational models. Nevertheless, a framework of urban supply chain combined with a business model has not been proposed yet. Furthermore, while a great attention is paid for studying e-grocery distribution as an online version of supermarket, fresh food and local food supply chain is somehow less considered. Local Food Supply Chain (LFSC) refers to a movement concerned with producing food locally and delivering that food to local consumers. It allows assisting local food producers in delivering goods in a more economically and environmentally efficient way, as well as offering to consumers the possibility of online purchasing, high quality, healthy and green foods and products from local producers. Nevertheless, do we really need a new supply-chain reference model for e-grocery? This paper focuses on this question. First, we examine the proposed solutions in the literature, showing their benefits and limits. Second, due to peculiarities of the market under study, we propose a reference model specialized for the e-grocery of LFSC. Our model incorporates innovative distribution and business models based on ICT and mobile application in order to overcome criticalities related to order placement and home deliveries. Keywords: E-grocery; Last Mile; Supply-Chain


65


The role of accessibility and connectivity in mode choice. A structural equation modeling approach. Dimitrios Papaioannoua,*, Luis Miguel Martinezb a

Instituto Superior Tecnido, Avenida Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal Transport Analyst, Internation Transport Forum at OECD, 2-4 Rue Louis David 75016 Paris, France

b

Abstract – Paper 22 We come among mode choice decisions many times a day. Sometimes they are done mechanically and other times we balance our options and decide the preferable. There is extensive literature in the field trying to understand the sociodemographic, behavioral, mobility and attitudinal drives behind mode choice. In this study we use data from a small mobility survey conducted in Lisbon, Portugal in 2011; and try to explain mode choice by characteristics of the Public Transport - Transit (PT) network layout and service provision, mainly focusing on accessibility and connectivity, together with socio-demographic and other elements. We furthermore make a distinction between PT captives and non-captives and making use of factor analysis for data reduction and a structural equation model to evaluate the binary choice between PT and private motorized vehicles. The obtained results point out a duality in the choice process; for instance, good accessibility of the system as a whole encourages an individual to use PT in general but poor connectivity of a particular trip might deter him from doing so. There seems to be a need of a convergence of good performance both in overall accessibility and trip specific connectivity for an individual to choose PT over private car. Nevertheless, taking into account that we are dealing with people, socio-demographic characteristics and behavioral elements play a very important role in their decisions. Keywords: public transport; mode choice; structural equation modelling

* Presenting author. E-mail address: [email protected]

66


Predicting travel mode of individuals by machine learning Hichem Omrania* a

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), 3, avenue de la Fonte L-4364 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg

Abstract – Paper 23 Travel mode choice prediction of individuals is important in planning new transportation projects. In this paper, we present four machine learning methods namely artificial neural net-MLP, artificial neural net-RBF, multinomial logistic regression, and support vector machines, for predicting travel mode of individuals in city of Luxembourg. The presented methods use individuals’ characteristics, transport mode specifications and data related to places of work and residence. The dataset analyzed comes from a national survey. It contains information on the daily mobility (e.g., from home to work) of individuals who either live or work in Luxembourg. We extracted individual characteristics to relate daily movements (journeys between home and work, in particular) to the characteristics of working individuals. We used the information about public transportation and some geographical location of the residential and work places. We compare the rates of successful prediction obtained by neural networks and several alternative approaches for predicting the travel mode choice using cross-validation. The results show that the artificial neural networks perform better compared to other alternatives. Our analysis can be used to support management decision-making and build predictions under uncertainty related to changes in people’s behavior, economic context or environment and transportation infrastructure. Keywords: Travel mode; data mining; data split; validation; neural networks.


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Investigation of factors that stimulate car drivers to change from car to carpooling in city center oriented work trips Peter van der Waerden a, Andreas Lem b*, Wim Shaefer c a

Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands b Movares Consultancy & Engineering, PO Box 2855, 3500 GW Utrecht, The Netherlands c Construction, Management & Engineering Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 24 Many cities in the Netherlands face increasing traffic flows, especially in the morning peak at entrance roads. Most of these entrance roads are not able to manage a large amount of car traffic often resulting in congested roads. These congested roads form a problem because they produce pollution, noise, and unreliable travel times. This unpleasant situation forces municipalities to consider alternatives for the car such as public transport, bicycles, and carpooling. Because of its flexibility and more personal atmosphere, carpooling is considered as an interesting alternative for solo car use. Other reasons make carpooling as an interesting alternative as well. Several, mostly small scale, initiatives are set up with varying success when looking at commuters’ travel mode switching behavior. It appears that there is limited insight into the attributes that might stimulate car drivers to change to carpooling. The current study aims to get more insight into the attributes that stimulate car drivers to use carpool as an alternative for their commuting trips in which the car is still the most used travel mode. The study was set up as a stated choice experiment. In the experiment, car drivers were asked to evaluate various hypothetical carpool alternatives. The alternatives were described using eight attributes: travel time to and waiting time at start location, travel time in (carpool) vehicle, uncertainty in travel time, costs of the trip, number of persons in the vehicle, parking situation at work location, car/bike availability at work location, and flexibility of arrival and departure times. Each generated carpool alternative was included in a choice task together with the respondent’s current car alternative. The generated choice tasks were included in an extensive on-line questionnaire. In total 354 car drivers completed the questionnaire and evaluated 3186 choice tasks. The choices were analyzed using a mixed multinomial logit model. The model estimation process showed that almost all investigated attributes significantly influence the attractiveness of carpooling in an expected direction. Most influential are the time and costs related attributes. No significant effect was found for the minimum number of persons in the carpool vehicle. In addition, it appears that the assumption of heterogeneity is supported by a significant standard deviation for a number of attribute levels. Keywords: Carpooling, Work trips, Stated choice


68


Comparison of particulate matter inhalation for users of different transport modes in urban areas Maria João Ramosa, Ana Vasconcelosa, Marta Fariaa* a

Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Avenida Rovisco Pais, nº1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 25 Daily commutes can contribute to a high exposure to urban air pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM 10 and PM2.5). Since individuals are inevitably exposed to PM concentrations, it is crucial to study which transport modes are most harmful to health in order to provide different and healthier options for daily commutes. For the purpose of estimating PM inhaled doses, this research relates pedestrians’ ventilation rate and ambient PM concentration. The methodology consists on collecting data regarding PM concentrations on a second-by-second basis, using a portable laboratory, which is comprised by a PM analyzer and a laptop. The ventilation rates were found in the literature and were adapted according to the intensity of the physical effort during the measurements. PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were measured and compared across different microenvironments, such as walking, train, bus, mini-bus, tram and subway modes during off-peak hours based on a pre-selected round trip route in Lisbon, Portugal. Air quality data was also collected close to a fixed air quality monitoring station which is part of the round trip route, in order to have a reference PM concentration. A comparison of the different microenvironments based on the values obtained close to the fixed air quality station was made for PM concentrations and PM inhalation (which combines PM concentration with the physical effort). Results showed that the tram had higher PM10 concentrations and inside the subway higher PM2.5 concentrations, whilst the train ride had the lowest for both parameters. Even though the ventilation rate for the tram (10.55 l/min) is lower than for the pedestrian mode (22.93 l/min), the tram microenvironment presents higher PM 10 inhalation, which proves that higher concentrations can highly influence inhalation. For PM2.5, inside the subway one could find the highest concentrations, presenting the higher inhalation value. Keywords: Particulate matter; Inhalation; Transport modes; Microenvironments


69


Optimal Investment into the Expansion of Railway Networks: A Case Study for Germany Andreas Bärmanna*, Francisco López-Ramosb, Alexander Martina a

FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg, Cauerstraße 11, 91058 Erlangen, Germany Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2147, 2362804 Valparaíso, Chile

b

Abstract – Paper 27 Rail freight traffic in Germany is predicted to grow significantly over the next two decades. Our industry partner Deutsche Bahn AG expects annual growth rates of about 3 % until the year 2030. An independent study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of the Environment estimates that there is sufficient capacity in the German rail freight network to accommodate up to 430 Mt of transported goods per year, which would be 15% more traffic than there was in 2010. An annual increase of 3 %, however, would mean almost doubling this value until 2030. These figures have been the motivation for a cooperation together with Deutsche Bahn AG in which we develop planning models and algorithms for the optimal investment of their annual budget to upgrade the German railway infrastructure. We examine the optimal expansion of the network capacities, focusing on the choice and scheduling of measures to increase the throughput of individual tracks and corridors in the railway network. Here it is important to consider the timely distribution of the given budget, i.e. how much money is allocated to which year of the planning horizon. Altogether, this does not only allow to determine which tracks in the network have to be upgraded, but also which ones are the most urgent ones to invest into. In our talk, we show how this network planning problem is solved via the methods of mathematical optimization. To this end, we introduce a mixed-integer optimization model for the described situation and present our algorithm to solve it via a decomposition technique. We demonstrate that our approach yields high-quality solutions to the mathematical problem on realworld data. These solutions are to the satisfaction of expert planners in the field, which shows that our model is a very adequate description of reality. As it includes a coarse view onto the optimal routing of the trains in the network, which delivers the explanation for the chosen network upgrade, it is a very helpful decision support tool for network planners. Our work is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Keywords: Railway Networks; Network Design; Mixed-Integer Programming; Decomposition


70


Tariff zone planning for public transport companies Sven Müllera*, Knut Haasea a

Universität Hamburg, Institute for Transport Economics, Von-Melle-Park 5, 20146 Hamburg, Germany

Abstract – Paper 29 In contrast to the representation in scientific literature we find the (spatial) design of tariff systems in public transportation to be very important in terms of managerial relevance: by appropriate design of the tariff system a public transport company is expected to increase its revenue remarkably. The counting zones tariff system is the prevailing system in metropolitan areas, such as London, Boston, and Perth. For the counting zones tariff system, the corresponding tariff is determined by the product of the number of zones passed on the trip from origin to destination and the price per zone. The price per zone – denoted as fare – might be decreasing in the number of zones passed. In this paper, we contribute to the scant literature on public transport tariff zone design by a new model for the tariff zone design problem. The objective is to maximize the expected total revenue (demand x tariff) taking into account contiguous tariff zones and discrete fare levels. The literature on public transport demand provides strong evidence that public transport customers are price sensitive. Demand – as a function of tariff (i.e., demand depends on the tariff to be paid) - is measured as the number of public transport trips between origin and destination. Customers are assumed to choose the time-shortest-path (which is confirmed by numerous empirical studies). For a given fare we compute the expected revenue for each origin-destination pair and the number of tariff zones passed. As a consequence we are able to model the original non-linear problem as a MIP. The problem has to be solved for each fare level separately. Contiguity is a complex task in spatial optimization. Here, contiguity is achieved by using primal and dual graph information. Therefore, we consider flow conservation constraints using the dual graph of the public transport graph. Our approach is general in the vein that demand can be determined by any arbitrarily chosen demand model (i.e., no assumptions about the functional form have to be made). We perform a series of numerical investigations using GAMS/CPLEX and artificial data to show the applicability of our approach. Further, we employ our approach to the San Francisco Bay Area, California using a simple version of the MTC Travel Model One as our demand model. Keywords: public transport tariff; districting; contiguity; revenue management; customer demand


71


Maintenance Scheduling in Rolling Stock Circulations in Rapid Transit Networks Javier Andrés Calvoa* , Luis Cadarsob and Ángel Marína a

Technical University of Madrid , Plaza Cardenal Cisneros, 3, 28040 Madrid,, Spain b Rey Juan Carlos University, Calle Tulipán, s/n, 28933 Móstoles, Madrid, Spain,

Abstract – Paper 32 We propose a new approach for the rolling stock assignment, train routing and maintenance scheduling problems in rapid transit networks, that is the railway rolling stock rostering problem. This paper describes a new integrated optimization framework for the railway rolling stock rostering, which considers that a given set of services must be covered with a minimum amount of rolling stock units while covering a given passenger demand and performing the required maintenance. The constraints of the rolling stock rostering require that the different types of maintenance operations must be carried out for each train periodically. The various maintenance tasks can only be done at a limited number of dedicated sites. Since we are solving this problem from the perspective of rolling stock maintenance routing, we introduce a model to minimize the cost of train service and maintenance assignment to each individual train. We solve the integrated model using different solution approaches: a) Column Generation using minimum path algorithms and integer programming for the enumeration of individual routing solutions and b) Benders decomposition, where the main decision is the rolling stock assignment and train routing and maintenance scheduling is studied in the lower level. Preliminary computational experiments for real case studies drawn from RENFE (the main Spanish train operator) show that improved plans can be obtained by applying the presented approaches. Keywords: rapid transit networks; rolling stock circulations; maintenance routing; rolling stock rostering; maintenance scheduling


72


Locating and Designing a Biorefinery Supply Chain under Uncertainty in Navarre: a Stochastic Facility Location Problem Case Adrián Serranoa,*, Javier Faulina, Pablo Astiza, Mercedes Sáncheza and Javier Bellosoa. a

Interdisciplinary Group of Logistics and Transportation- GILT, Public University of Navarre, Spain

Abstract – Paper 34 The need for renewable energy sources is quickly growing in order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, Navarre, a European region located in Northern Spain is, currently, a global leader in the production and use of renewable energy. Actually, more than 80% of its electricity production comes from renewable sources (mainly wind and water). Then, having the purpose of increasing the renewable energy sources diversification, the region aims to locate a biorefinery plant which mainly serves Northern Spain. Locating decisions are considered strategic, immobilizing a large amount of resources and involving an important group of industrial actors. Therefore, they initially show a significant impact on investment costs, and later, on the operating costs when the facility is already running. This location activity has also important environmental influence due to the usual performance of the biorefinery, involving also the transportation and logistic activities because of the supply chain procurement. Once the biorefinery has been located, another problem arises: the design of the supply chain with its classical operational decisions: which crops are going to be harvested, when they are going to be collected and how we should transport the feedstock to the biorefinery. Apart from this, dealing with farms production is always dealing with uncertainty. Thus, climate and weather, competitors and alternate uses, are key factors which influence the availability of biomass. For that reason, uncertainty must be taken into account in order to avoid stockouts that allow us the optimization of the total expected cost. Moreover, estimated feedstock availability is crucial to determine the optimal plant size. Therefore, the results provide us not only the best location of the biorefinery from the economic point of view, but also the variation on feedstock disposal that eventually the biorefinery could intake along with its final size Keywords: Location Problem; Biorefinery; Uncertainty; Mixed Integer Linear Programming Problem; Biomass


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Functional Relationship Between the Runway System and Apron/Gate Area under Different Demand Characteristics Bojana Mirkovića,*, Vojin Tošića a

Division of Airports and Air Traffic Safety, University of Belgrade - Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Vojvode Stepe 305, Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract – Paper 36 Overall airport airside capacity is commonly identified with the runway system capacity. In this paper, it is observed through the runway system and apron/gate area, assuming that the taxiway system does not impose the capacity constraint. The main issue addressed in this paper is whether overall airside capacity can be determined by comparing the runway system capacity to apron capacity directly one to another or their functional relationship has to be understood and taken into account? Simple transformation from operations/h into aircraft/h considering the share of arrivals and departures in peak periods may not be sufficient to capture the connection between apron/gate and runway capacities for different airport types. Runway-apron relationship can also depend on demand characteristics e.g. dominant market segments (e.g. scheduled, charter, low-cost, general aviation, cargo), or specific traffic patterns (hubbing or point-to-point services, seasonality in demand, etc.). This paper primarily focuses on two airport types, with respect to their role in air transport network: origin-destination airports, serving primarily point-to-point traffic, resulting in traffic distribution throughout the day with more or less pronounced peak periods; and hub airports, serving temporally coordinated flights concentrated in waves of flights (solely, or in combination with other point-to-point flights). In the latter case, two different strategies for aircraft stands/gates assignment are observed: exclusive and preferential. Referring to earlier findings related to apron capacity analysis, the paper summarizes various factors that can affect apron capacity at O/D and hub airports. Simple academic examples are used to show when the capacities of the runway system and apron/gate area can be determined independently of each other, and under which demand characteristics runway-apron relationship should be taken into consideration in the process of airside capacity analysis.


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Bi-level optimization in the context of intermodal pricing: state of art Christine Tawfika,*, Sabine Limbourga a

University of Liege (Ulg), HEC Management School, QuantOM, Rue Louvrex 14, 4000 Liège, Belgium

Abstract – Paper 37 Determining the right prices of intermodal services is considered as a crucial factor to stimulate intermodal transport. Striking the balance between competitiveness and profitability can be a complex process, demanding an accurate costs’ estimation and a clear insight of the market situation. Earlier studies classified intermodal pricing problems in two levels; the individual actors (drayage and main haul operators) and the whole door-to-door chain level. In addition to acknowledging the previous view, we introduce a new classification perspective of the latter category; simulation versus optimization approaches. Several literature examples can be noted, belonging to the former class. A number of solid decision support frameworks have been developed to simulate the influence of certain pricing-related policy measures such as, introducing taxes/subsidies plans and changing fuel prices. However, the literature is almost silent on the latter category. To the best of our knowledge, optimization techniques are still poorly utilized in the domain of intermodal pricing problems, possibly due to the complexity of the underlying networks analysis. We have found existing approaches either directed to limited case studies, or relying mainly on marketing research and customers’ segmentation methods to capture the effect of their pricing decisions on the network users, rather than on modeling concepts. Driven by the limitations imposed by these approaches in what concerns the services and the customers’ classes, and the demanding need for generalization, a further exploitation of optimal methods is certainly needed. Recently, bi-level optimization has gained a wide reputation in solving pricing problems in general, and the spinned-off network-based variants in specific. This is chiefly due to the hierchichal logic it involves: modeling two sequential layers of decision-makers. In this paper, we aim at justifying a motivation to apply bi-level optimization in the context of intermodal pricing. We start by reviewing pricing-related approaches following the suggested classification. Next, we cover the main categories of bi-level optimization problems both in the general transport as well as the pricing context. We include the previous bi-level programming attempts applied to intermodal networks. Finally, we present a wrap-up of the different classes of the traffic assignment problem, often used as the lower level, together with a discussion of real-life aspects modeling (such as: congestion), as well as the specific design questions that arise when modeling networks incorporating more than one mode of transport. Keywords: intermodal transport; pricing problems; bi-level optimization; Stackelberg games; network equilibrium


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Model predictive control for motorway traffic with mixed manual and VACS-equipped vehicles Claudio Roncolia*, Ioannis Papamichail, Markos Papageorgioua a

Dynamic Systems and Simulation Laboratory, Technical University of Crete, Chania 73100, Greece

Abstract – Paper 38 Vehicle automation and communication systems (VACS) are expected to appear in an increasing amount of vehicles within the next years. Among the wide range of proposed VACS, most, like ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control) systems, are primarily designed to benefit safety and driving comfort. Nevertheless, they will also have a significant impact on traffic flow characteristics. In addition, in case VACS include vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) or vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication capabilities, there is an opportunity to exploit single vehicles as sensors and as actuators. The former will enable to obtain more accurate information on the current traffic state; while the latter offers the possibility to assign to each vehicle appropriate control tasks, so as to achieve a global traffic flow target. These aspects represent significant potential improvements with respect to current traffic control, where control actions are commonly targeting a wide set of vehicles travelling along the motorway (e.g. speed limits posted on a variable message sign are intended for all vehicles travelling on the stretch where the sign is located) rather than individual vehicles. Appropriate studies, developing control strategies that consider the exploitation of vehicles equipped with VACS, while aiming at mitigating traffic congestion, are therefore essential. This work describes a model predictive control (MPC) framework that can be used for the integrated and coordinated control of a motorway system, considering that a percentage of vehicles are equipped with VACS, capable to perform control tasks that are received from a centralised decision maker. It is assumed that the available control actions are ramp metering (RM), mainstream traffic flow control (MTFC) via variable speed limits (VSL), and lane changing control (LCC). While RM can be applied using ordinary traffic signals, it is supposed that MTFC commands are dispatched to vehicles equipped with ACC systems, and that the received VSL is used within the in-vehicle control system, without any direct intervention by the driver; also LCC is supposed to be applied by the same equipped vehicles. The optimisation problem used as the core of the MPC is characterised by a simplified piecewise-linear multi-lane macroscopic traffic flow model that permits to formulate it as a QP (quadratic programming) problem. This allows obtaining an optimal solution in a very short computation time, even while considering a large-scale infrastructure. The objective function primarily accounts for the total travel time minimisation, but other terms are included to account for other specific needs (e.g. smoothed control actions). The macroscopic behaviour of different traffic composition (e.g. penetration rate of ACC-equipped vehicles or different ACC strategies) is accounted by an appropriate calibration of some model parameters (e.g. the parameters describing the fundamental diagram). The behaviour and performance of the proposed approach are evaluated by use of microscopic simulation, where some aspects related to a potential practical implementation are also considered. Different scenarios are designed, demonstrating the robustness of the proposed methodology to different traffic conditions and different penetration rates of equipped vehicles. Also, it is shown that the detrimental effects (capacity reduction) due to the choice of a high headway in ACC systems may be mitigated by using an appropriate control strategy acting at a macroscopic level. Keywords: Motorway traffic control; Vehicle automation and communication systems; Model predictive control.


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Managing European Air Traffic Control Provision: a Network Congestion Game Nicole Adlesa* , Eran Hananyb and Stef Proostc a

Hebrew University of Jerusalem, School of Business Administration, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, 91905, Israel b Tel Aviv University, P.O. Box 39040, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel c KU Leuven, Oude Markt 13, 3000 Leuven, België

Abstract – Paper 43 We develop a network congestion game to test a series of scenarios in order to analyse potential paths for change in air traffic management in Europe. The two stage game models air traffic control (ATC) providers that set charges and in the second stage airlines that choose flight paths given an airline schedule and the charges from the first stage. The scenarios analysed in the model include (i) the impact of privatization and deregulation; (ii) defragmentation of the set of current providers; (iii) introduction of technology via the common projects and SESAR step 1; (iv) peak pricing and (v) the regional forerunner approach in which an ATC provider and a specific airline co-operate. The results show that horizontal integration across ATC providers, known as functional airspace blocks, would appear to be problematic with respect to incentives hence regional forerunners in a bottom-up institutional process would appear to be a preferable approach. Vertical integration between companies may succeed in accelerating change as long as the ATC companies are permitted to charge for improved quality, such as reduced congestion. Institutionally, a clear separation of the ATC providers from the Member States and subsequent franchising of the support services and ATC services could further encourage efficiency, consolidation and technology adoption. Keywords: air traffic control; non-linear optimization; Nash equilibria; network congestion game


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Assessing the effect on network observability of route information applied in sensor location problems Marco Rinaldia*, Francesco Cormanb, Francesco Vitic a

b

Leuven Mobility Research Centre, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300A, 3001, Heverlee, Belgium Maritime and Transport Technology Department, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft, the Netherlands c Research Unit of Engineering Sciences, University of Luxembourg, 6 rue Coudenhove-Kalergi, L-8081, Luxembourg

Abstract – Paper 46 Locating sensors in traffic networks is a crucial strategic decision that has considerable impact on the accuracy of monitoring and estimation applications such as demand estimation, state estimation, etc. Network Sensor Location Problems (NSLP) aim to find an optimal set of variables to monitor, in order to maximize a certain objective function. These problems have been dealt with in the past in two ways. A large deal of literature treats the problem as inverse of OD estimation, while a more recent trend explores the observability of any state variable (link, route or OD) on the basis of the measured flows and by explicitly exploiting topological. This paper’s contribution frames within the sub-problem of finding the smallest set of link sensors such that information on the unmonitored variables (link, route or OD) is maximized, an issue we refer to as partial observability. Crucial information needed to solve partial observability problems are the topological relations expressed in the so-called incidence matrix, which relates link-route and possibly OD variables to each other. These relations may be expressed as routebased or node-based. This last approach has the advantage of not needing route enumeration, which is a very handy property in cases of large-sized networks. Node-based solutions, however, will lose some important relationships originating at the route level, i.e. those between sequences of links along a specific path. Because of this, route-based approaches may find full observability solutions with a smaller number of sensors. On the other hand, finding how and which routes to enumerate is currently a challenge. In this paper we explore the impact of using k-shortest path algorithms for determining the route sets needed to solve the observability problems. In particular, we show how a limited amount of routes per OD pair is needed in order to incorporate all relevant information. We show that observability metrics, as those presented in our previous works, describe a direct relation between number of routes considered and degree of information. Moreover, there is empirical evidence that the marginal increment of information per additional route added decreases. This defines an asymptotic maximum value of information, which is found for relatively limited amount of routes. We provide such empirical evidence, with the help of different mid- and large size networks, and we compare the above findings with the node-based solution counterparts. Keywords: Network Sensor Location Problem; Observability; Null-Space metric; k-shortest paths; Linearly-independent routes


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Using Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation Model to Estimate the Regional Impacts of High-Speed Rail in Spain Guineng Chena *, João de Abreu e Silvab a,b

CESUR/CERis, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa

Abstract – Paper 47 The objective of this paper is to investigate the impacts of the HSR network on the regional development of the Spanish provinces from 1990 up to 2010, by applying a simultaneous-equation modeling approach. The proposed model possesses a systematic perspective, the relationships between HSR and the various aspects of the regional development interact with each other in a more realistic manner. The model intends to estimate the quantitative relationships between all the variables, where accessibilities by road and by HSR, employment, GDP, population and number of firms at province level are treated endogenously, and education level is the exogenous variable used to control for the impacts from education policies. The model estimates the reverse causality from the economic development to the investment in transport infrastructure, which is an issue not explicitly modeled in previous research. Besides, the model captures also dynamic effects, by the use of a lag-adjustment framework, implying that the initial levels of the variables are important in determining their subsequent changes. The empirical results concur that the investment in HSR together with education policies has positive impacts on stimulating GDP growth, establishing new firms, increasing employment levels and attracting population at provincial level in Spain. Keywords: High-Speed Rail; Simultaneous-Equation Model; Regional Impacts;


79


AFEX: An autonomous freight exchange concept Dipl.-Kfm. René Föhring a,*, Univ.-Prof. Dr. Stephan Zelewski a a

Institute for Production and Industrial Information Management, Essen, Germany

Abstract – Paper 48 The more efficient configuration and coordination of multimodal transports is a topic consistently emerging in the last decades. Several projects, like e.g. LOGFOR, CODE24 and CENTRAL EUROPE, make efforts to achieve progress in this area. This paper presents an already implemented and tested software prototype for the configuration of multimodal supply chains and describes how this prototype, which emerged from the CODE24 project, is able to facilitate contact between potential business partners and it is shown how the implementation of the prototype and the research into freight exchanges led the authors of this paper to a new market place concept: AFEX – Agent-based Freight Exchanges. It is shown how these yet to be implemented, highly automated and interconnected market places will alleviate problems commonly associated with existing market places and provide support for decentralized and autonomous software agents to perform contractually binding auctions of multimodal freight transport services utilizing a double-sided combinatorial auction model. Finally, an outlook on prospective concepts which support the negotiation of contracts for multimodal transport services using multi-agent systems is given.

Keywords: intermodal transports; online freight exchange; logistics modelling; multi-agent systems; combinatorial auctions


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Trip pricing of one-way station-based carsharing networks with zone and time of day price variations Diana Jorgea*, Goran Molnarb, Gonçalo Correiac a

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Rua Luís Reis Santos - Pólo II,3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal b Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb, Unska 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia c Department of Transport and Planning, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048- 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 52 Carsharing systems may be classified as round-trip systems if the users have to return the vehicles to the stations where they were picked up, and one-way systems if the users are allowed to return the vehicles to different stations from the origin one. Therefore, one-way carsharing offers users more flexibility, making this service attractive even if a trip requires spending a long time at a destination. However, this great flexibility presents a problem for the operator that has to manage the vehicle fleet imbalances across stations. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the vehicle imbalance problem, one of which is trip pricing. Trip pricing consists of changing the price of the trips charged to the clients according to their contribution to balance the system. This approach has been pointed several times, although no one has ever proposed a method to set those prices and to prove its usefulness. The main objective of our work is the development of a method to apply trip pricing and investigate if it is possible to increase the profit of a one-way carsharing company through its use. This method consists of a mathematical model that determines the prices to charge in order to maximize the company’s profit, considering the trips made throughout an entire day and the price elasticity of demand. As demand depends on price, this mathematical model becomes non-linear, which requires the use of a solution algorithm to solve it. An iterated local search meta-heuristic was included on it. For setting the prices, stations were grouped into zones through k-means clustering and time was divided into time intervals. The developed methodological approach was tested for the case study of the city of Lisbon, in Portugal. This application shows that this balancing strategy works in a satisfactory way, creating a more balanced system and allowing the achievement of a profit of 2068.1 €/day for the best price combination found against losses of 1160.7 €/day when no balancing mechanism is applied. The average prices charged to the clients increase about 23% related to the base price and the demand served decreases about 18%. The origin-destination pairs of stations that have the higher increases in price, that is, a decrease in demand, are the more imbalanced ones. Keywords: one-way carsharing; trip pricing; mathematical programming; iterated local search


81


A mixture latent Markov model to capture heterogeneity in people’s over-time transition patterns between mono- and multimodal travel patterns Maarten Kroesena* a

Delft University of Technology, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands, Phone: +31 15 278 718, E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract – Paper 54 Recent empirical evidence suggests that people are becoming increasingly multimodal. Coinciding with this trend, a growing interest can observed in the transport literature to study the concepts of multimodality and modality styles, defined respectively as the use of different modes during a specific time period and the disposition to use different modes. Most studies, in this regard, have focused on assessing the determinants of multimodal travel behaviour. While it is interesting to know which factors, at a certain moment in time, affect the membership of mono/multimodal travel patterns, one general omission in the current literature relates to the questions how and why people switch between the mono/multimodal travel patterns over time. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap. To this end, a mixture latent Markov model is developed and estimated using data from the German mobility panel (MOP) (N=3,675), a three-wave rotating panel. Various specifications of the mixture latent Markov model are explored. The optimal fit is achieved with a model consisting of five latent classes (travel patterns) and three Markov chains (modality styles). The five travel patterns are identified as (from most mono- to most multimodal) (1) strict car users (45% of the sample), (2) car passengers (16%), (3) PT and occasional car users (17%), (4) bicycle and occasional PT users (10%) and (5) car and bicycle users (13%). In addition, the three underlying modality styles are identified as (1) habitual travellers who stay in their respective pattern for three consecutive years (53% of the sample), (2) semi-deliberate choice travellers who switch only within car (travel patterns 1 and 5) and non-car patterns (travel patterns 2, 3 and 4) (24%) and (3) fully-deliberate choice travellers who switch between all (car and non-car) patterns (23%). The latter two modality styles indicate that there is a group of deliberate choice travellers which either has an intrinsic preference towards the car or an intrinsic preference towards other modes (the within car and non-car pattern switchers) and a group of deliberate choice travellers which has no particular mode preference and has all modes in its consideration set (the between car and non-car pattern switchers). Based on the results, it is argued that the mixture latent Markov model provides an innovative way to measure psychological constructs like habit and trait-like predispositions towards the car and other modes. Keywords: travel behavior; multimodality; modality styles; mixture latent Markov model


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A systematic review of multi-criteria decision-making applications in reverse logistics Jafar Rezaei * Transport and Logistics Group, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, the Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 55 Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods have been applied to various reverse logistics problems. In order to develop a reliable knowledge base through accumulating knowledge from previous studies, we conduct a systematic review of the applications of different MCDM methods to different reverse logistics problems. We found 82 relevant papers published in scientist journals, which are application of different MCDM methods to different reverse logistics problems. We classify the literature based on two dimensions problem context and methodology. The results show that recycling and AHP are the most researched problem and methodology respectively. We finally suggest some future research directions with respect to problem context and methodology. Keywords: reverse logistics; multi-criteria decision-making; systematic review


83


A preliminary analysis over the factors related with the possession of an electric bike Paola Astegiano a*, Chris M.J. Tampère a, Carolien Beckx b a

L-Mob Leuven Mobility Research Center, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300,3001 Heverlee, Belgium b Transport and Mobility Unit, VITO NV, 200 Boeretang,2400 Mol, Belgium

Abstract – Paper 56 In recent decades, the promotion of non-motorized modes of transport is increasing as part of more sustainable eco-mobility vision. Consequently incentivizing a shift from car to bicycle could reduce road congestion, traffic-related air pollution, road accidents and infrastructure costs. Nowadays the electric bike is gaining more and more popularity (with China the world’s leader producer). Because of its higher speed and longer reach, it could be an attractive alternative to the car. Recent studies have also demonstrated how e-bikes and traditional bikes are ridden differently: e-bike riders have more frequent interactions with other road users. Moreover, they are more competitive than the ordinary bikes in term of longer distance. Through an online survey (together with a GPS tracking) conducted in the city of Ghent (Belgium) we define the profile of the e-bike users (age, income, residential location, ownership, etc…) and analyze their mobility habits (distance travelled, purpose of the trip, etc…). We are strongly convinced that a correlation exists among the different activities that people perform daily and the mode of transport that each person decides to own, consequently an analysis of their mobility habits before and after the acquisition of the e-bike is necessary in order to confirm our assumption. The initial results show how the e-bike is highly used for commuting trips while for more occasional trips (at most once per week) the car is the preferred alternative. Data obtained from a travel diary survey allows us to confirm the high e-bike usage assumption for the commuting trips. Moreover, the analysis over the changes in the mobility habits after the acquisition of the ebike shows how the e-bike has mainly incorporated the trips performed by bike but it also caused an increase of the frequency for some trips. The detailed results are the object of the paper. Summarizing, in this paper we propose a preliminary analysis over the relevant factors correlated with the ownership of an ebike and an overview about how people changed their mobility habits after the acquisition of the e-bike. Keywords: Electric bike; Mobility Habits; GPS tracking


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A new variant of discretized LWR model to reproduce capacity drop Yu Hana*, Yufei Yuana, Andreas Hegyia, Serge Hoogendoorna a

Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2600GA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 57 A new variant of discretized LWR model is proposed in this paper, which is used for traffic network simulation and control. This variant works better than previous ones in two main aspects. The first one is creating stop-and-wave via implementing a model to reproduce capacity drop. This model is deployed not only at the bottleneck cell but also any other cells of the freeway network. The second is the improvement of computation speed. The model can be formulated as a linear programming problem, which can be solved fast by using a proper solver. Therefore, it has great potential to be used for real-time traffic control. LWR model, is capable of describing some main traffic flow features (e.g. spillback, shock waves), however, it is incapable of creating complex traffic flow patterns such as stop-and-go waves and, capacity drop. Previous studies try to include capacity drop phenomenon into the LWR model, but most of the models either restrict this phenomenon only triggered at recurrent bottleneck which is unrealistic or these model have a too high computation complexity to be implemented in real time. The proposed model is based on the LWR theory, which includes a flow conservation equation and a flow-density relation equation (fundamental diagram). The model is discretized according to the Godunov scheme. To create the stop-and-go wave accurately, we apply a capacity drop model at each cell of the freeway network. We assume a linear relationship between the density of the upstream cell and the extent of capacity drop of the downstream cell, which has been proven according to previous empirical studies. The model can be formulated as a linear programming problem so as to be solved efficiently. Several simulation test are carried out to validate the accuracy and computation time of our new model. It is done by comparing the validation by compare the simulation result to other LWR based models and real data from loop detectors on Dutch freeway. Several traffic flow phenomena are emphasized, such as capacity drop, stop-and-go wave, and merging behaviour, in addition to the prediction accuracy of speed and density. We select several typical days when wide moving jam happened, as the test cases. The input data such as demands, boundary conditions, off-ramp splitting ratios are obtained from the loop detectors. We expect that our proposed model generate density and speed profile of the freeway networks more accurately compare to other models. Meanwhile, the sop-and-go wave phenomenon can be well represented. In addition, due to the possibility to formulate this model as a LP problem, at a later stage, the model could be extended with ramp metering and speed limit control. Keywords: LWR model; capacity drop; stop-and-go wave; traffic simulation.


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Peak-load pricing for the European Air Traffic Management system Tatjana Bolića*, Lorenzo Castelli a, ,Desirée Rigonata a

Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Architettura, Università degli Studi di Trieste, Via A. Valerio 10, 34127 Trieste, Italy

Abstract – Paper 62 Peak-load pricing (PLP) is widely used in scheduled transport and is, in general, transparent and predictable to users (since peak times and prices are known in advance). This paper extends the use of PLP to the context of the European Air Traffic Management system, as EU regulation No 391/2013 allows the modulation of en route charges to avoid network congestion in a specific area or on a specific route at specific times. In particular, we propose a centralised approach to PLP (CPLP) where a Central Planner (CP) is responsible for setting en route charges on the whole network. CPLP is composed of two phases. The purpose of the first phase is to identify congested airspace sectors and related peak and off-peak hours. This can be achieved by either analysing past traffic and route choice data or by analysing future demand on an Origin/Destination basis. Using either method, the ratio between sector hourly traffic count and its nominal hourly capacity represents a load factor. Based on the value of the hourly load factor, the peak or off-peak label is assigned to a specific region for a specific hour. In the second phase, CP assesses the setting of en route charges, and Airspace Users (AUs) assess the routing of each flight. Set en route charges should guarantee that air navigation service providers (ANSPs) are able to recover their operating costs and that AUs are able to perform flights, overall avoiding imbalances between the demand and available airspace capacity. En route charges are set by the CP to achieve an overall objective, which is to reduce the amount of delay on the network. However, since in the current system en route charges are set by the ANSPs, and the AUs can only react to them by choosing alternative and cheaper routes, we model the relationship between the CP and the AUs as a Stackelberg game where a leader (CP) makes his decision first with complete knowledge on how the follower(s) (AUs) would react to it. The Stackelberg equilibrium is obtained by means of an optimisation problem formulated as a bilevel linear programming model, where the CP sets, for each sector, one peak and one off-peak en route charge and the AUs make their routing choice. Preliminary results on real data instances are presented. Keywords: Peak-load pricing; Congestion pricing; Air Traffic Management (ATM); Air transport; Airspace users


86


Using Genetic Algorithms to Solve Large Scale Airline Network Planning Problems Katrin Kölker a,*, Klaus Lütjensa a

German Aerospace Center (DLR), Air Transportation Systems, Blohmstr. 8, 21079 Hamburg, Germany

Abstract – Paper 64 Network planning problems are a main discipline in the configuration of the airlines’ planning process. Since it is based on the entire fleet of an airline, it might easily comprise thousands of flights. In quantitative research we often ask for the influence of passenger attributes like time preferences or the influence of fleet attributes for example speed on the network. Therefore, to capture these effects appropriately, it is necessary to include scheduling effects and minor rotation aspects into the problem formulation as well as fleet assignment. However, this results in complex problems. If tried to solve with the standard approach using linear programming, one quickly runs into problems, which are not solvable in reasonable runtime with today’s techniques. There exist problem formulations capturing network planning with scheduling and passenger paths at the same time. Nevertheless, they are all based on linear programming and highly depending on the performance of the solver. In this paper we introduce an alternative, more assessable approach. We present a formulation where a flight plan is represented as a one-dimensional array in order to run genetic algorithms. Deriving the network from this formulation is straightforward, as the network is defined as the operated routes and the number of flights operated on these routes. The flight plan includes simple constraints to allow rotation planning later. Requirements on the flight plan are for example the fact that the same number of aircraft at one airport at the beginning of every planning period should be equal to the number at the end of the period to allow recurrent flight plans. This is used to calculate the final capital cost. As objective function we use the profit function of the airline, which includes direct operating cost and revenues. Passenger movement in this modelled is based on passenger path in order to allow analyzing point-to-point networks as well as hub-and-spoke-networks. Using the presented approach and genetic algorithms to solve it, we will perform a use case showing the application by means of a network of one airline. This use case reveals the required assumptions and data in order to provide an overview for future assessments and analyses. Keywords: Strategic Airline Planning; Network Planning; Scheduling; Genetic Algorithm


87


Analysis of AHP methods and the Pairwise Majority Rule (PMR) for collective preference rankings of sustainable mobility solutions Michela Le Piraa*, Giuseppe Inturria, Matteo Ignaccoloa, Alessandro Pluchinob a

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Architettura (DICAR), University of Catania, Via Santa Sofia 64, 95100 Catania, Italy b Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia (DFA), University of Catania, Via Santa Sofia 64, 95100 Catania, Italy

Abstract – Paper 67 The aim of this work is to give a contribution in the field of stakeholder engagement in order to reduce the widespread conflicts arising when transport plans have to be implemented and understand the role of quantitative methods to support shared decisions. Decision-support methods are widely used in transport planning to aid policy-makers in their choices. These methods can be very helpful when choosing the “best” solution in a set of alternatives or when it is necessary to derive priority scales (of projects/strategies/objectives/plans), mainly because of limited resources and several – sometimes conflicting – objectives. In particular, preference ranking methods, such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), are very useful because they make possible to have numerical scales of preferences among alternatives (in terms of weights) starting from subjective judgments. The extension of these methods to include more than one point of view assumes high relevance nowadays, being widely recognized the need to involve stakeholders and all the interested citizens at the very early stage of the transport planning process. Public participation improves the quality of the decisions and can help avoiding protests afterwards or even the plan failure. In this respect, different aggregation methods can be used, but some important conditions are considered essential: the final ranking has to be transitive, consistent and at the same time it has to reflect the initial individual preferences at a reasonable level. In this study we present the results of a participation experiment where a given number of transport engineering master students were asked to express their opinions about possible mobility management solutions to be adopted in their university. The AHP method was applied to derive a priority scale for each student, on the basis of their judgments of preference between all couples of alternatives. The aggregation of the individual judgments was done by using different methods, some derived from AHP and others derived from some voting methods, such as the Pairwise Majority Rule (PMR) and the Borda rule. PMR is considered as the fairest social choice rule, but it can hide some pitfalls, i.e. it can lead to an intransitive collective ranking. The same process was reproduced through an agent-based simulation able to see to what extent a repeated interaction can increase the degree of consensus. A discussion about the results of the survey and of the simulations will provide some recommendations that can be useful to guide effective and efficient participation process. Keywords: public participation; transport planning; group decision-making; multi-criteria decision analysis; agent-based simulation


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A Variable Speed Limit Algorithm For Achieving a Sustainable Transportation System Under Connected Vehicle Environment Bidoura Khondaker a*, Lina Kattan b a

b

PhD candidate, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW Calgary T2N1N4 Canada

Associate Professor, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW Calgary T2N1N4 Canada

Abstract – Paper 68 This paper presents a Variable Speed Limit (VSL) control algorithm for simultaneously maximizing the mobility, safety and environmental impact under Connected Vehicle (CV) environment. Development of Connected Vehicle technology has the potential to provide essential data at microscopic level to have an understanding of real time driver behavior information. Most of the VSL control algorithm in the literature are based on aggregate traffic data and ignore the fact that drivers have different preferences and compliance behavior. The current strategy of VSL design can be improved in a connected vehicle environment. More specifically, Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) communication initiatives (moving close to deployment) will provide a basis to detect individual vehicle trajectories. This data in a microscopic or individual vehicle level can be used as an accurate input to design advanced traffic control devices to reduce congestion and enhance safety on roadways. The main advantage of using microscopic data is that the behavior of drivers and vehicles are described in detail. Consequently, studies that focus on individual driver's behavior rather than aggregate behavior are needed to develop the next generation of advanced and robust traffic control devices. This paper investigates a VSL control algorithm using microscopic approach by focusing on individual driver's behavior. In order to assess the sustainability impacts covering mobility, safety and environment, this paper incorporated three distinct components into a single microsimulation framework using microscopic data. These components are: (i) A microscopic traffic flow prediction model to minimize Total Travel Time (TTT) of all vehicles in the network, (ii) A surrogate safety model Time to Collision (TTC) to capture the instantaneous safety between each individual pair of vehicles, and (iii) A microscopic emission and fuel consumption model 'VT-Micro model' to measure total Emission (E)/Fuel Consumption(FC). Finally, a system-wide optimization using a multi-objective function is formulated to obtain the VSL values that minimize: (i) TTT, (ii) collision probability derived from TTC, and (iii) E and/or FC. The proposed algorithm has been optimized using Genetic Algorithm(GA) via an integrated VISSIM-COM-MATLAB interface. The results of the analysis shows that the VSL algorithm, when compared to the uncontrolled case, significantly improved the mobility, safety, and the environmental performances resulting in around 20% of total travel time reductions, 6–11% of safety improvements and 5-16% reduction in overall fuel consumption. The proposed VSL strategy using microscopic data and real time driver's compliance, showed a simultaneous improvement in safety and sustainability without reducing the mobility benefit of the users. Keywords: Variable Speed Limit; Driver Behavior; Optimization

*

Presenting author E-mail address:[email protected]

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Lane distribution estimation for heterogeneous traffic flows Femke van Wageningen-Kessels a,*, R. Eddie Wilson b a

Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands b University of Bristol, Woodland Road, Bristol BS8 1UB, United Kingdom

Abstract – Paper 70 Highway traffic consists of many different types of vehicles driven by drivers with various behavioral characteristics. We address the question: How does this heterogeneous flow distribute itself over the available lanes? We focus on the most practically important case when traffic is dense and hence there is non-trivial interaction between the various classes. It is important to understand the lane distribution for traffic management, traffic safety, road maintenance and other applications. We develop a method to model and predict macroscopic steady state lane distributions, given the prescribed density of vehicles in each class (here class combines vehicle class and driver type). Our method is based on a previously proposed multi-class traffic flow model (Fastlane) and assumes that 1) all traffic in a given lane travels at the same speed, 2) all traffic of a given class travels at the same speed, 3) if any vehicle were to change lanes, its speed would decrease (a kind of user equilibrium). The methods that we develop yield not only the distribution of vehicle classes over the lanes (in the form of an assignment matrix), but also the speed of each of the lanes. In the meat of the paper, theory is developed which establishes circumstances in which the assignment matrix and consequent lane speeds can be solved for. In general, this is quite a complicated mathematical problem, so for illustration we focus on examples where there are two vehicle classes. Furthermore, in this simple setting, stronger statements can be made about the solution structure. The examples we present illustrate how we can model traffic management policies for twolane roads that employ either dynamic speed limits or mandatory lane policies. The key is that management policies can be used to encourage flows of different classes to either separate out into different lanes, or to mix and share lanes, which can impact the overall highway capacity, average speed, etc. Finally, the paper closes with a detailed discussion of the scope of our theory and the next steps in future research. Keywords: Traffic flow modelling; Lane distribution; Traffic management; Macroscopic modelling; Steady state


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Time Series Analysis of Booking Data of a Free-Floating Carsharing System in Berlin Johannes Müller a* and Klaus Bogenbergera a

Universität der Bundeswehr München, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, Neubiberg, 85579, Germany

Abstract – Paper 74 The most rapidly growing carsharing system in North America and Europe is the free-floating one (FFCS). In a FFCS system customers can book and return vehicles of the fleet in every place of a defined operating area. While first studies tried to characterize the user of such a system and explain the booking behavior this work focuses on the short times prediction of FFCS bookings. Booking data of the FFCS operator DriveNow in Berlin are the basis for the forecast. They enable modeling time series for vehicle bookings by hour. The forecast provides predictions for every hour of a future week. To include spatial differences of FFCS bookings forecasts are calculated for every zip code area. Two methods of time series analysis are used to compare their performance for the present data: A seasonal ARIMA model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters-Filter. These two approaches are realized each with four settings. The different models are based upon data of a whole year, a halfyear, a quarter or just a month and compared regarding their precision and practicability. Preliminary analyses such as the spectral analysis show that FFCS booking frequencies have weekly recurring trends. Additionally, it is visible that in areas with a high booking density this level lasts for the whole time. By this, spectral analysis can be applied as a spatial clustering method. The comparison of the two tools of time series analysis yields to the Holt-Winters Filtering (HWF) as the favorite method. Finding the optimal parameters for the ARIMA models is computationally intensive and results in just equally good or even worse forecasts than with exponential smoothing. The best prediction is performed with HWF using three months of booking data. The forecast predicts bookings with an average error of only 0.84 vehicles per hour. The largest average absolute error of all compared forecast models is around 20% higher but makes the model still useful in practice though. Keywords: carsharing; free-floating carsharing; time series analysis; ARIMA; Holt-Winters filtering; spectral analysis


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Delay Management in Public Transportation: Service Regularity Issues and Crew Re-scheduling S. Carosia, S. Gualandib, F. Malucellic, E. Tresoldic* a

M..I.O.R. Via San Donato 512, 55100 Lucca, Italy AntOptima, Via Aprica 26, 6900 Lugano, Switzerland c Politecnico di Milano – Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Piazza L. da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Italy b

Abstract – Paper 75 In this paper, we elaborate, in the context of local public transportation services, on the design and the development of optimization algorithms that can assist the operators in facing different types of disruptions with the ultimate objective of increasing the quality of service of public transportation or, at least, to limit the perception of inconvenience on passengers. As a case study, we will analyze the urban management of surface lines (busses, trolleybuses and trams) of Azienda Trasporti Milanese (ATM) of Milan. We discuss different ways to assess the regularity of the service evaluating pros and cons. This is one of the most critical points since, from the service provider point of view and, also, from the municipality or the agency monitoring the service perspective, the regularity of the service should be measured in the simplest and most intuitive way. However, the measure should be also of help when actions, intended to recover the regularity or improve it in the presence of disruptions, must be taken and their definition demanded to a decision support system. In this regard, we present and analyze different types of functions that can be used to effectively evaluate the regularity of the service in a real-time environment. Furthermore, we discuss the necessity of a simulation based evaluation system to automatically estimate the effect of detours and other changes on the regularity of the service. Such system can help the operations central officers in quickly and objectively assessing the impact of different alternative decisions taken to recover the regular service. We present a description of an integrated decision support system that includes in a uniform environment both the simulation and optimization aspects of the problem. Finally, we analyze the mathematical aspects underlying the decisional process required in defining the optimal curse of action to promptly react to short-term disruptions. A detailed description of the online algorithms implemented to re-optimize on the fly both vehicles and drivers scheduling is given. In particular, the vehicles re-optimization is tackled with a tabu-search based procedure while the consequential drivers rescheduling is addressed using a standard column generation approach. The algorithms were extensively tested on real world case studies provided by ATM and the experimental results obtained are reported and carefully analyzed. Keywords: Delay Mmanagement, Transportation, Re-optimization, Real-time Optimization, Real-word scenario


92


Travel time estimation between loop detectors and FCD: A compatibility study on the Lille network, France Simon Cohena*, Zoi Christoforoub a

University Paris-Est, COSYS, GRETTIA, IFSTTAR, F-77447 Marne-la-Vallée, France

b

Researcher LVMT, Assistant Professor ENPC, 6 et 8 av. Blaise Pascal, Cité Descartes, Champs-sur-Marne, F-77455, France

Abstract – Paper 76 The availability of floating car data (FCD) enables operators to use novel methods in travel time estimation. A first step towards combining traffic data from loops and FCD is to check the compatibility between the two types of travel time estimates. We perform an in-depth statistical analysis that allows us to compare various travel time estimates using data collected from the peri-urban highways in the region of Lille, in north France. The comparison is performed separately for light and heavy vehicles and for various settings: peak hour, off-peak hours, working day, holiday, rain, and so on. The results show that the two estimates are linearly correlated and a specific function can be calibrated for each site for itineraries of variable length. Overall, this paper provides evidence that different flow regimes necessitate differentiated a priori treatment in order to enhance the reliability of estimates made on data coming from different sources. Keywords: loop detectors; FCD; travel time; data compatibility


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Valuation of travel attributes for using automated vehicles as egress transport of multimodal train trips M.D.Yapa,b*, G. Correiaa, B. van Arema a

Delft University of Technology, department Transport & Planning, Delft, the Netherlands b Goudappel Coffeng, Deventer, the Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 78 In the recent years many developments took place regarding automated vehicles (AVs) technology. In fact AVs are expected to become available on the market in the next decades. It is however unknown to which extent the share of the existing modes will change as result of AVs introduction. To the best of our knowledge this study is the first where traveller preferences for AVs are explored and compared to existing modes. Thereby its main objective is to position AVs in the transportation market and understand the sensitivity of travellers towards some of their attributes. Because there are no fully-automated vehicles currently on the market, we apply a stated preference choice experiment where we explore the role of classic instrumental variables such as different travel time components and travel cost. In our study we focus on positioning AVs in the context of last mile transport at the activity-end in multimodal train trips. We can conclude that first class train travellers on average prefer using an automated vehicle as egress transport between train station and final destination, compared to using other egress modes. Second class train travellers on average prefer the use of bicycle and bus/tram/metro as egress mode instead of automated vehicles. Especially for first class train passengers, implementing AVs as last mile transport therefore has potential. Second, sensitivity of travellers for in-vehicle time is considerably higher for an automatically driven AV, compared to a manual driven AV. As consequence, the willingness-to-pay for a certain travel time reduction in an automatically driven AV is considerably higher, compared to a manual driven AV. Despite theoretical advantages of using travel time more efficiently in an automatically driven AV, it might be that psychological concepts, like attitudes, play an important role here. Since automated driving is a very new and innovative way of transportation, the classic instrumental attributes like travel time might not tell the whole story. Keywords: automated vehicle; cybercar; last mile transport; preferences; stated choice


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Agent-Based Modelling of Traffic Behavior in Growing Metropolitan Areas Karsten Hagera*, Jürgen Rauhb, Wolfgang Rida,c a

Institute of Urban Planning and Design, University of Stuttgart, Keplerstraße 11, 70174 Stuttgart b Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Würzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Würzburg c Department Urban and Spatial Planning, University of Applied Sciences Erfurt, Schlüterstraße 1, 99089 Erfurt

Abstract – Paper 82 The urban settlement development of the past centuries was characterized by the process of suburbanization. Currently, the process of (re-) urbanization in metropolitan areas leads to population growth. This increase results in even more traffic participants in highly condensed areas and thus challenging the urban mobility system. Capacity and frequency of service of public transportation, a city’s layout and road capacities constrain urban traffic. Transitions in travel behavior in Germany (e.g. less young adults consider cars as status symbols, and thus car ownership decreases) as well as the introduction of new types of mobility, such as sharing systems and electric mobility exacerbate the challenges for the future urban mobility. Both an expansion and modernization of the transportation system and an intelligent shift of traffic streams will help to overcome those challenges. Traffic simulation software is naturally used to derive results about public transportation in metropolitan areas. With the help of agent-based modeling, however, human behavior in a certain research area can be modeled according to pre-defined rules and variables. Not every single inhabitant of the metropolitan area is represented by traffic simulation software, whereas in agentbased modeling all inhabitants will be featured in the model. Agent-based modeling is used for scenarios of the future traffic behavior and the ability to easily adapt to new constraints in the general framework of the model. The metropolitan area of Stuttgart is used as case study and MatSIM is used as agent modeling software. Following the model setup, different scenarios are evaluated. The main research question focuses on the alteration of the urban mobility system when newly-built residential or industrial areas or rehabilitated areas are connected to the transport system. First results regarding the demographic development of Stuttgart are presented as well as the current status of the model itself. Keywords: agent-based modelling; traffic simulation; urban structure


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A new node model based on CTM-UT with capacity determination Ludovica Adacher a, Marco Tiriolo a,* a

Department Of Computer Science And Automation, University of Roma Tre, Via della Vasca Navale 79, I-00146 Rome, Italy

Abstract – Paper 83 Despite the results obtained in literature to improve the macroscopic node model it is necessary to consider a general node model approach. In order to provide a correct model of traffic when crossing an intersection, it is necessary to prevent the mistakes of representing various movements that occupy the same physical space and to consider the complex interactions among movements in the intersection model. In this paper, we present a new node model based on Cell Transmission Model (CTM) to represent traffic flows that crosses signalized and unsignalized intersections. It allows to model complex intersections for urban contest. In particular, to represent different turn movements of the inflow at intersection and belonging at the same lane, the model introduces a new variable. It is utilized to represent the percentages of different turns. The model takes into account also the estimation of the merge flows at the intersection. Our node model is an extension of the CTM named Cell Transmission Model for Urban Traffic (CTM-UT). It is important to notice that the CTM-UT can contain horizontal queues by shockwaves method (e.g., spillback effect), modeling multiple lanes and representing of blocking effects. It can represent demand and capacity percentages of single lane and it can excellent model the freeway and urban street belonging to the same network. The new node model present in this paper can represent: the connection of the demand upstream intersections to the supplies downstream intersection; the demand percentages of turns for every single lane; complex signalized and unsignalized intersection; merging flows or conflict among crossing flows. We also propose a new formulation to estimate the flow capacity at intersection. It can compute the minor streams that are limited by major stream on unsignalized intersections. This model reduces the problems and the complexities of the capacity determination (based on gap acceptance) and it could be used for dynamic traffic assignment. Our model could be used also for complex signalized intersection, where many conflicts among through flows are presented. On the bases of test cases, the capacity determination of minor streams of the CTM-UT produces a smooth representation of the flow when a conflict occurs at intersection. Also, it gives a good accuracy respected to the other macroscopic and microscopic model. Keywords: Intersection modeling; Cell transmission model; Urban traffic; Macroscopic simulation; Gap acceptance


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Estimation of Delay at Signalized Intersections by Using Differential Evolution Algorithm Ersin Korkmaza* , Ali Payıdar Akgüngöra, Erdem Doğana a

Kirikkale University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Civil Engineering, 71451 Kırıkkale, Turkey

Abstract – Paper 84 Delay is widely used to measure the performance of a signalized intersection because of directly reflecting lost travel time and the level of service (LOS) of signalized intersections. Therefore, the accurate estimation of delay is an important step for signal control. However, delay is a parameter that is difficult to estimate precisely. In the literature, many models incorporating heuristic and analytical approaches have been presented to obtain accurate estimation of delay. In this research, three types of differential evolution delay estimation (DEDEM) models, which are linear, exponential and quadratic, are developed using differential evolution (DE) approach. In developing of the delay models, we considered green ratio and degree of saturation. The first one changed from 0.35 to 0.60, the second one varied between 0.7 and 1.4. While some of data taken from CORSIM simulation are employed for the development of the models, rests of them are utilized to verify for coherence of the proposed models. The model outputs are compared analytically with HCM and Australian delay models. The study results illustrate that both R2 and mean square error (MSE) values of DEDEM are better than those of existing delay models. Keywords: Delay; Differential Evolution Algorithm; Signalized Intersections


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A Routing Filter for the Real-Time Railway Traffic Management Problem based on Ant Colony Optimization Marcella Samàb*, Paola Pellegrinia, Andrea D’Arianob, Joaquin Rodriguezc, Dario Pacciarellib a Univ. Lille Nord de France, IFSTTAR, COSYS, LEOST, rue Élisée Reclus 20, 59666 Villeneuve d'Ascq, Lille, France Roma Tre University, Department of Engineering, Section of Computer Science and Automation, via della Vasca Navale 79, 00146 Rome, Italy c Univ. Lille Nord de France, IFSTTAR, COSYS, ESTAS, rue Élisée Reclus 20, 59666 Villeneuve d'Ascq, Lille, France

b

Abstract – Paper 85 The growth in transport demand of the lasts years is a trend expected to continue in the coming years. In railways, the difficulties in building new infrastructures due to high costs or physical obstacles have translated into the need to utilize the already existing infrastructures at their full capacity. During the daily operations disturbances may happen, creating overlapping requests for the same tracks at the same time by multiple trains. Traffic controllers are thus required to solve these problems, taking decisions on how to answer the overlapping requests. This may lead to the creation of consecutive delays on the network, which in turn may create new conflicting requests and so on, impoverishing the quality of the service offered. In order to minimize the propagation of consecutive delays, thus recovering the quality of the service, real-time traffic adjustments are necessary. A stream of research focuses on the real-time railway traffic management problem. In this problem both routing and scheduling decisions are considered simultaneously. The problem dimension and the computational time required to find a solution of acceptable quality are strongly affected by the characteristics of the rail network and traffic flows, and in particular by the number of routing combinations that can be assigned to the trains. This paper presents a new filtering method for the selection of a set of possible routings for each train, whose maximum dimension is a parameter to be set, in order to facilitate the computation of a good solution for the subsequent train routing and scheduling problem. We call this the routing selection problem. It represents a first step in the solution process of the real-time railway traffic management problem. We model this problem using a N-partite graph in which each partition represents the set of alternative routings for a train. To solve the routing selection problem we use ant colony optimization, a meta-heuristic based on ant colonies' behaviour. Each ant builds a solution by assigning one routing to each train based on heuristic information and pheromone trails. The heuristic information is a greedy measure of the effect of a particular assignment on the overall solution quality. The pheromone trail represents the shared knowledge on the quality of the previously built solutions which include the assignment itself. A pool of good quality solutions are generated and the corresponding combination of routings is released as input to the real-time railway traffic management solver. Keywords: Train Routing and Scheduling; N-partite Graph; Meta-Heuristics.

* Presenting author E-mail address:[email protected]

98


Quantifying the relationship between saturation rate and emissions in different roundabouts’ layouts Margarida C. Coelho a,* , Luis Vasconcelos b, Paulo Fernandes a, Ana Bastos Silva c a

University of Aveiro, Department of Mechanical Engineering / Centre for Mechanical Technology, Campus Universitário Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal b Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, Department of Civil Engineering, Campus Politécnico de Repeses, 3504-510 Viseu - Portugal c University of Coimbra, Dept. Civil Engineering / Centre for Territory, Transport and Environment (CITTA),Rua Luís Reis Santos - Pólo II, 3030-788 Coimbra – Portugal

Abstract – Paper 87 This paper compares the emissions generated from vehicles moving through a roundabout and a conventional multi-lane roundabout through an analytical assessment. The Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) methodology is employed to estimate secondby-second pollutant emissions. The crucial aspect of this methodology is the identification of the speed profiles for each of the approaching vehicles. Three representative speed profiles were identified: no stop (I), stop once (II), and multiple stops (III). A multinomial discrete choice model is used to predict the speed profile experienced by a vehicle when approaching an intersection. This model was calibrated using synthetic data generated by an Aimsun microsimulation model calibrated for roundabout analysis, in which the number of stops is linked to the saturation ratio, among other variables. A modified version of Hagring’s capacity model, coupled with a new entry traffic distribution method, is used to predict the capacity ratio at each of the roundabout’s entry lanes. Hagring's capacity model accounts for unequal lane usage in the circulatory carriageway and allows the accurate prediction of saturation ratios at all entries, even under very high demand levels. Emissions are compared for two layouts with approximately the same implantation areas – a two lane conventional roundabout and a turbo-roundabout – under several demand scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that the differences in the emission levels depend on the directional splits at each entry and tend to increase with the roundabout’s saturation ratio. Keywords: Roundabouts; Emissions; Saturation rate


99


Cycling mobility – a Life Cycle Assessment based approach Margarida C. Coelho a,* , Diogo Almeida a a

University of Aveiro, Department of Mechanical Engineering / Centre for Mechanical Technology, Campus Universitário Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 88 Cycling brings advantages to the environment and is also an affordable transportation mode. The number of people using bicycles has been increasing in several European countries as well as the interest in manufacturing new types of bicycles with different materials. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the complete life cycle of a bicycle (cradle-to-grave analysis), and to quantify which components have the highest environmental impact. The production, maintenance, use and waste scenarios were calculated using the life cycle assessment software SimaPro. The use of bicycles in two different realities in terms of bicycle modal share (Portugal and The Netherlands) was considered. Then, some “what-if” scenarios were performed, in which some bicycles components were replaced with different materials, with the objective to decrease the environmental impact of the product itself. Aluminium, steel, wood and carbon fiber were tested in SimaPro. Results indicate that the components made in aluminium have the highest environmental impact. On the other hand, a bicycle with carbon fiber shows the lowest impact for the majority of the environmental categories. When evaluating the whole life cycle of the bicycle, the production phase has the highest negative impact. Keywords: Bicycle; Life Cycle Assessment; SimaPro


100


On the relationship between the built environment, driving behavior and energy consumption in electric car driving Andreas Braun a,*, Wolfgang Rid a,b a

b

University of Stuttgart, Keplerstraße 11, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany University of Applied Sciences Erfurt, Schlüterstraße 1, 99089 Erfurt, Germany

Abstract – Paper 92 Electric mobility is seen as a major means to improve energy efficiency and to reduce CO 2 emissions in the traffic sector. But so far, little is known about how big the efficiency advantages actually are and how driving behavior is related to them. Investigating these aspects should be done with regard to built environment characteristics in order to infer the effects and potentials in different spatial situations. In addition, results can help to optimize utilization, especially in regard to the limited range of electric vehicles. Recommendations concerning an energy-saving driving behavior can be derived and vehicle navigation systems can be supported in choosing the most energy-efficient driving route. The presentation gives insights into ongoing research on the factors influencing the energy consumption and driving behavior when driving electric vehicles, focusing on built environment characteristics. In order to measure energy consumption and driving behavior, several commercially-used electric cars have been equipped with tracking devices, recording GPS and energy data over the course of one year. Multiple employees are regularly driving each car, thus allowing real-world data, comprising seasonal and behavioral effects, to be gathered. Most data is collected at a frequency of 1 Hz while driving, thus creating detailed driving profiles. Additionally, drivers will be surveyed using a standardized questionnaire. The collected tracking data is spatially joint to built environment characteristics (e.g. building density, street geometry) using geographic information software. In addition to the factors of the built environment, further aspects like weather, time of day and driver characteristics are considered as independent variables in this study. Analysis of variance (ANOVA), multiple regression analysis and cartographic representation is applied to assess the impacts on energy consumption and driving behavior. To handle und analyze the accruing amounts of data, it is crucial to make use of an appropriate data model. All data is stored in an object-relational geodatabase, which allows the dynamic establishment of spatial and non-spatial relationships. The contained driving profiles can be flexibly segmented using various criteria. Furthermore, statistical measures about segmented or trip-long driving profiles can be easily calculated for comparison and further analysis. So far, driving profiles have been used to identify influencing factors on a qualitative basis (e.g. street type and elevation). On-going data acquisition will expand the amount of available driving profiles, which will allow the identification of further influences, including long term effects, as well as the quantification of influences. Keywords: electric mobility; vehicle tracking; object relational geodatabase, driving profiles


101


Monotonous simulated driving, driving experience, and low doses of alcohol: behavioral, physiological and subjective measures Laurent, P. Ferriera, Edith Galyb , Catherine Berthelona* a

French Institute of Science and Technology for Transport (IFSTTAR), 304 chemin de la croix blanche, 13300 Salon-de-Provence, France. b Aix-Marseille University (AMU), 29 avenue Robert-Schuman, 13621 Aix-en-Provence, cedex1, France.

Abstract – Paper 94 The aim of the study is to evaluate driving performance during monotonous task depending on Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC), and driving experience. Assuming that, during monotonous driving task, performance should be impaired with a BAC increased. This impairment should be more pronounced for Young Novice Drivers (YND) than for Young Experienced Drivers (YED). YND (18 years, less than two months of driving license) and YED (21 years, 3 years of driving license) were invited to participate in three simulated driving sessions separated by a minimum of 24 hours in which BACs were randomly manipulated (0.0, 0.2 and 0.5 g/L). Every experimental session took place during postprandial period at the circadian nadir. Task was to drive on a simulated typical highway road during 45 min and to maintain a steady speed (110 Km/h) and stable position on the right lane. Variation in lane position and speed were chosen as the primary outcome variables because they have been shown to be sensitive in this kind of task. Before and after each driving session, participants responded to Thayer scale (alertness and tension estimation). After each driving session they also responded to an adaptation of the NASA-TLX (NASA-Task Load Index). Speed, lane position of vehicle and Electro Dermal Activity (EDA) of the drivers were continuously recorded. Driving performance data were analyzed for 8 temporal intervals of 5 min (because we excluded the first temporal interval of 5 min). Results from the self-report scales showed interactions and significant differences between the two groups. No difference was observed as a function of BAC for the YND but time-on-task effect was observed. Conversely, YED’s estimations showed a variation of subjective alertness, arousal and effort depending on the Alcoholic conditions. Concerning driving performance, triple interactions was obtained between temporal interval*Alcohol*Group. Both groups of young drivers appear to be sensitive on time-on-task effect and alcohol condition for different indicators used. Overall, for standard deviation of lane position YND seemed to show perturbations for the highest BAC conditions (0.5 g/l) while the YED seemed more disrupted linearly by the increase of BAC conditions (0.0; 0.2 and 0.5 g/l) and time-on-task effect. EDA show also differences. As expected, performance impaired with an increased BAC, and the first effect of fatigue appears in temporal window between 15 to 30 min for different indicators and for both groups. This decrease of performance with alcohol was already present for BAC 0.2 for both groups. Keywords: Monotony; Fatigue; Alcohol; Young drivers


102


Modeling of shared spaces with multi-modal traffic using a multilayer social force approach F. Pascucci a,*, N. Rinke b, C. Schiermeyer b, B. Friedrich a, V. Berkhahn b a

Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute for Transportation and Urban Engineering, Hermann-Blenk-Straße 42, 38108 Braunschweig; Germany a Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institute of Computer Science in Civil Engineering, Callinstraße 34, 30167 Hannover, Germany

Abstract – Paper 96 The desire to give streets a social function and to reduce the dominance of vehicles has lead towards new design approaches where all road users share the road. Applications may be found in Dutch Woonerf (living roads) and in Swiss Begegnungszone (meeting zones), where pedestrians and cyclists take priority over motorized vehicles, and the well-known “shared spaces”, where traffic control devices, marking and signs are removed and traffic is governed by the principle of auto-regulation and direct danger perception. However, the multiplicity and diversity of solutions actually existing all over the world and the difficulty to define common performance indicators makes it hard for traffic engineering to predict and evaluate the operation of shared space schemes. In order to support engineers and designers to evaluate the performance and the safety of different mixed traffic situations, appropriate micro simulation tools are needed for modeling the movements of road users in these scenarios realistically. Several challenges have to be managed in the development of a realistic micro simulation model for shared spaces. Firstly, the presence of different types of road users with different characteristics and degrees of freedom, moving in the same space and interacting with each other has to be taken into account. Secondly, the precise manner in which the design of the environment affects the movement and the behavior of road users has to be investigated. Furthermore, the real challenge is to set up a compact model which could handle all possible situations that may occur in a shared space, which could vary from the free flow movement, interactions and conflicts to the definite collisions between agents. This requires a multi-layer-structured model, in which each layer handles one of the situations just mentioned, with special regards to the specificity of each transport mode. In this paper are firstly analyzed which factors have an influence on the behavior of road users in shared space environments, on the basis of video footage taken in a pedestrian-friendly intersection in the city of Braunschweig (D). Since the level of interaction among agents plays a primary role, a social force based model is developed, which includes a free-flow model and two layers for the mechanisms of collision avoidance (long- and short range). The operation of the simulation framework will be explained on the basis of simple interaction situations, and finally compared with two observed scenarios which include simple conflicts between pedestrians and cars. Keywords: street design; shared space; microscopic simulation; Social Force Model; mixed traffic.


103


The influence of users’ route choice for the dynamic travel demand estimation Marialisa Nigroa*, Ernesto Cipriania, Luca Di Pietrantonioa, Akmal Abdelfatahb a

Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via Vito Volterra 62, Rome 00146, Italy b Department of Civil Engineering, American University of Sharjah, Sharjah, UAE

Abstract – Paper 97 This study deals with an investigation of the influence of several route choice models, combined with a different set of information about traffic conditions, on the efficacy and stability of the solution of the off-line dynamic demand estimation problem. Motivations of such investigation derive from the need to better reproduce the real users’ behaviors during the demand estimation and benefit from the extensive information, which is provided by traffic monitoring systems that collect advanced traffic data ubiquitously distributed on the network. Different laboratory experiments have been conducted on a test network consisting of 22 nodes (14 are signalized intersections), 68 links, 6 traffic zones, a whole planning horizon of 35 minutes discretized into 5 minutes intervals. Specifically, these experiments consider:  the Dynasmart model to solve the DTA;  the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation, Asymmetric Design, Polynomial Interpolation (SPSA ADPI) method to solve the off-line estimation of dynamic OD matrices;  different combinations of traffic measures inside the objective function of the dynamic travel demand estimation;  different route choice models for the DTA, specifically 1) dynamic shortest paths, 2) User Equilibrium (UE) approach, 3) System Optimum (SO) approach, 4) mixing rates of users that follow UE or SO, 5) mixing rates of users that follow the previous approaches with users following always the same path (“unresponsive users”). Results show a higher stability of the objective function of the dynamic travel demand estimation problem, when it is possible to capture within the process the actual users’ route choices and the more stable is the route choice model implemented into the DTA, with regards to travel demand variation. Moreover, if information on route choices on the road network are available (for example route travel times, but also path rates), these information could assure a very refined solution at the end of the dynamic demand estimation process. Keywords: Travel demand estimation; dynamic traffic assignment; route choice model.


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Utilization of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces in dynamic discrete choice models: An application to the high-speed railway timetabling problem Ricardo García-Ródenasa* and María Luz López-Garcíaa Departamento de Matemáticas, Escuela Superior de Informática, Ciudad Real, Spain

Abstract – Paper 98 This paper introduces a generalized nested logit model that results from combining discrete and continuous response variables. Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces are used to define the (dynamic) systematic utilities, allowing correlations between alternatives close together on the continuous spectrum, and reconciliation mechanisms between both types of response variables are established. The seminal motivation of this model is the passenger-centric train timetabling problem. For this reason, the discussion in this paper focuses on a high-speed railway (HSR) demand-forecasting model. For simplicity without loss of generality the formulation of the model focuses on the single attribute of departure time. The model can be extended to a multiattribute context which is able to tackle ticket cost, travel time, etc. A maximum likelihood approach is stated to estimate the parameters, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to test the proposed methodology. A set of synthetic data has been generated using arbitrary probability density functions and refusal rules. The data obtained has an ambiguous travel pattern. The preliminary numerical tests conducted on this dataset give an average error in the estimation of demand in services of 13.5%. A definitive assessment requires real data and more computational trials to analyze the role of the parameter σ of the Gaussian kernel on the performance. Keywords: Generalised nested logit model; Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces; High-speed railway timetabling problem


105


Procedural modeling of urban population and road network Xiaoming Lyua*, Qi Hana, Bauke de Vriesa a

Eindhoven University of Technology, PO Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven, the Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 99 Procedural modeling is introduced into urban simulation in 2001, and is mainly promoted by entertainment market with limited academic motivation. As a result, most procedural city models have problems when they are applied in academic fields. So the aim of this paper is to explore a procedural city modeling method for academic research application. This paper mainly describes the population and road network parts which is the first step towards a realistic city simulation model applicable to academic research. The input to our pipeline is simple: the population, the urban area, and the desired land use percentages. We preset several population distribution models, urban spatial structures, and street patterns, so users can just make choices at relative steps. At this stage, we apply two alternatives for each input: the population distribution could fit the Clark model or the Newling model; the urban spatial structure could be monocentric or polycentric; the street pattern could be checker or radial. As for land use, we choose a widely used set of seven land uses, and users need to input the proportion of each use. Our pipeline has four steps, and users can modify the results at each step. First, a population density map is created based on the preset population density models, and the map could be modified by changing values of peaks. The layer of population density is an input to the generation of road network and land use layers. The two layers consist of three spatial levels. At the city level, the highway and arterial are generated to form a spatial framework of urban layout, and the city is divided into districts at the same time. Then the land uses are allocated to the districts, in the form of a set of percentage values of land use. The district level has similar procedures creating the distributor and the neighborhoods, and also the land use allocation on the neighborhoods. At last is the neighborhood level which produces the local access and the lots, and land use is allocated specifically on the lots. The output of this system is a city layout with population, road network and land use, and users can adjust or regenerate the road network and land use of all districts, neighborhoods and lots, which make it possible to control the whole city and its local parts. Keywords: procedural modeling; urban modeling; population density; road network


106


Multi-criteria optimization for joint maintenance and spare part provisioning: a simulation study Peter Chemwenoa,*, Peter Muchirib, Mohammad Sheikhalishahia, Liliane Pintelona a

Centre for Industrial Management, Celestijnenlaan 300A, Heverlee 3001, Belgium School of Engineering, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, P.O. Box 657-10100, Nyeri, Kenya

b

Abstract – Paper 100 In today’s industries, optimal spare parts provisioning performs a critical role towards sustaining the asset’s operational capabilities. This is often achieved through mitigating the impact of unnecessary downtime associated with sub-optimal replenishment lead times. In this regard, spare parts provisioning is mentioned as an important mitigation strategy, more so for repairable components. Here, spare part demand is initiated by equipment failure. Moreover, the repairable systems presume the possibility for component reconditioning thereby influencing the demand for new parts. Invariably, this influences the stocking policy implemented by the organization. Depending on the echelon the spare part is sourced, different transshipment policies may be adapted, though with varying cost impacts. In addition to the implemented policy, several maintenance aspects may influence spare part demand. These include the component’s reliability, spare part quality and the repair efficiency. To realistically model such complexities associated with spare part replenishment in such instances, simulation approaches are often explored. In this study, a simulation modelling approach for spare part replenishment is proposed. The model evaluates the impact of alternative provisioning systems applicable for repairable systems. Moreover, the model mimics the effect of maintenance aspects on system availability and defines several performance measures, i.e. system reliability and replenishment cost. In addition, different replenishment strategies are implemented, e.g. regular and emergency replenishment. Of course, varying replenishment costs are incurred depending on the replenishment strategy adapted and the echelon the part is sourced from. The performance measures are weighted and ranked using the Analytic Hierarchy Process approach where the perceived importance of the measures is taken into account. In this way, the salient aspects, e.g. supplier reputation and/or choice of maintenance policies are factored in the simulation results. The simulation approach is implemented in the empirical case of thermal power plant engines. The results highlight the important influence of component reconditioning on the spare parts replenishment policy. Moreover, the component quality influences the feasible reconditioning cycles, thus impacting the spare part stocking policy. Finally, the usefulness of the model for decision support is highlighted, more so in the context of joint maintenance and repairable inventory systems. Keywords: Asset maintenance; Spare parts pooling; AHP


107


Model-based Estimation of Private Public Charging Demand Maximilian Schüßler a,*, Klaus Bogenberger a a

University of Federal Armed Forces Munich, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85577 Neubiberg, Germany

Abstract – Paper 101 Many concepts have been developed on how to build a sufficient charging infrastructure based on a given charging demand. However the focus of these approaches often lies on the spatial distribution of charging stations and not on a sufficient future sizing of the charging infrastructure. In this paper a model is described on how the future of private charging demand for different regions can be estimated. Different aspects are considered which influence the future amount of charging stations. For example, the distinction between different user groups like Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) users with or without home charging possibility. Also the spatial distribution of early adopters of electric mobility is considered and modeled using an agent-based approach. Unfortunately, forecasting the development of BEVs is very difficult at the moment, as different studies obtain in deviant results. Furthermore, there are only a few studies available about the charging behavior of BEV users. So in a case study for the city of Munich, three scenarios based on different assumptions for these influence factors were established to estimate the range of the charging demand in 2020. The foundation of the chosen assumptions are to a great extent existing studies about characteristics and charging behavior of BEV users. As the results of these scenarios exhibit high deviations, a sensitivity analysis of different influence factors was conducted. It can be seen that the amount of future charging demand is highly correlated to the influence factors and therefore it is very difficult for decision makers to plan the future size of the charging infrastructure correctly. Keywords: BEVs; charging infrastructure; charging demand


108


A Traffic Enforcement Camera Operational Model Sher Mali a,*, Adler Nicoleb, Hakkert Shalomc a

Israel Traffic Police, Bet-Dagan 5020000, Israel School of Business Administration, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel c Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel

b

Abstract – Paper 102 Police enforcement resources impact safety levels by changing driver behavior. The existence of an enforcement camera reduces the number and severity of offences which in turn reduces the number of road accidents and serious injuries. After measuring the impact of a set of cameras over the last year in Israel, we note that traffic parameters were decreased on average. Based on the enforcement camera recordings, tickets are issued for red-light and speed offences. The owner of the vehicle is either (i) sent a fine, (ii) a fine with points or (ii) a court summons, according to the severity of the offence and the available police/court resources. The time halo effect causes a camera’s productivity to be reduced over time, once the tickets issued have been served, and it is therefore worthwhile moving the camera after a period of time. This research investigates the traffic police enforcement policy with respect to the use of semi-fixed cameras on a road network. In the first stage, a public committee choose the location of a set of fixed camera poles. Subsequently, the police force decided on a monthly basis which poles will contain active cameras. In the final stage, the decision is made as to the most appropriate operational policy such that a specific speed threshold determines the issuing of tickets. An integer linear program model was developed to determine the lowest enforcement speed per camera site over the planning period such that ticket issuances are maximized according to an analysis of the most important traffic parameter (average speed, variance etc.) at each site. The constraints are budget constraints as well as limitations on the processing capabilities of the police back office and the judicial system. There are three administrative level restrictions: the police back-office producing the tickets, a separate unit handling requests from the car owners and the courts that are limited by the number of judges. Finally, a municipal limitation restricts the number of tickets issued within a specific geographic region. The results of a year-long study show that the number of offences was reduced by up to 50% wherever cameras operated, highlighting the importance of this tool in the traffic enforcement field. In addition, we found that the time halo effect exists for approximately two months which will impact future decisions and the frequency with which cameras will be relocated. Keywords: Traffic Police; Enforcement cameras; Integer linear program


109


A new approach to crew scheduling in rapid transit networks Manuel Fuentesa*, Luis Cadarsoa , Ángel Marínb a

Rey Juan Carlos University, Departamental III Building Camino del Molino s/n, Fuenlabrada 28943, Spain b Technical University of Madrid, Pza. Cardenal Cisneros 3, Madrid 28040, Spain

Abstract – Paper 108 We propose a new approach for the crew scheduling problem in rapid transit networks. With this approach we try to open a new branch for future research, providing a different way of facing the crew scheduling problem which makes integration with other planning problems easier than the traditional approach based on column generation for solving a set covering/partitioning problem. For solving this new model we develop a Lagrangian relaxation and we take advantage of an ad hoc decomposition based on time-personnel clustering. We present some preliminary computational experiments for real case studies drawn from the main Spanish train operator, RENFE. Keywords: Crew scheduling; Lagrangian relaxation; Rapid transit networks.


110


Logistical accessibility solutions alternative routes in mineral exploration area in the Amazon: the use of simulation models Maisa Tobiasa*, Sergio Gomesa, Rui Ramosb, Daniel Rodriguesb a

Department of Technology, University of Amazonia, 287 Alcindo Cacela Avenue, Belém , 66060902, Brazil b Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho, Gualtar, Braga, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 110 In Brazil and Pará mineral extraction activity stands out for its level of production, income generation, investments and their significant participation in the trade balance. The mineral production in the State of Pará, in the Amazon, ranks second in the Brazilian production, with 25%. The share of the mining sector was 30% in the GDP in that State, in 2012. The integration region of Carajás (RI Carajás) is comprised of 12 municipalities with land area of 44,751 km², representing 3.6% of Pará territory, concentrating 7.5% of the population, 569 000 inhabitants and a GDP of R$27.0 billion. With the installation of mineral extraction plants since the 1980s, there was a high population density in urban areas of the region. Assuming that the infrastructure contributes to economic and social growth of a region as it boosts productivity via expansion of public service electricity, sanitation, communication and transport. The central research question has shed light on the logistics of accessibility solutions mobility and able to promote sales of local production and regional integration. The objective of the research was to identify alternative routes that are qualified to better serve the people and economic activities and raise the level of regional accessibility. There was a documentary survey of the history of formation of the region, characterization of urban and rural census tracts and the making of a georeferenced database of roads in the study area. Starting from empirical survey of a sample of census tracts in which it collected information concerning the production and flows. The Factor Analysis statistical technique was used to obtain the latent dimensions to the data set regarding the perceptions of owners of urban and rural establishments. The new dimensions obtained were classified into demographic; production and markets; production costs; infrastructure and productive dependence. A modeling using spatial statistics tools and geostatistics was adopted to assess and identify the shortestpath condition and the minimum conditioning path passing through the urban centers and major agricultural sector and agro-food industries in the RI Carajás. Initial results show that the link between the cities reduces considerably depending on the route chosen, for example, Xinguara and Parauapebas, through Canaan (about 145km and 2.8h) reduced considerably the distance to be covered by the current route using the BR-155 (about 210km and 3h). Therefore, investments in road infrastructure present as possible inducers of regional integration and contribute to sustainable development in integration region of Carajás. Keywords: Logistics, Mineral production, Accessibility, Road infrastructure;


111


User group evaluation based on survey data Domokos Eszergár-Kissa*, Bálint Caesara a

Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Muegyetem rkp. 3., Budapest 1111, Hungary

Abstract – Paper 112 A quantitative analysis was performed to evaluate multimodal journey planners, where a framework of aspects was created in order to realize the most important features of these journey planners. Also user groups were defined, so that all the different needs and expectations could be represented. In order to gain realistic answers from the user groups, a survey was composed. The first part of the survey contained questions about the users’ age, their occupation, their health situation, and the reason why they use journey planners. The users were also asked to rank the main aspects, which allow weighting the results in accordance with their expectations. The rest of the survey was divided into several question groups, each part focusing on a category of the aspects: route-planning, booking and payment, information about the journey, services information, other information. Having the results of the survey a statistical analysis was performed. For all questions the mean values and variances were calculated concerning each user group. Then a Bartlett test was performed, which examines, whether the user groups have the standard deviation or not. A t-test was also conducted, which examines, how much the two examined user groups are similar to each. However we expected big differences among the user groups, according to the survey’s results no significant differences could be detected concerning the main aspects. But handling single aspects many differences turned out. Route planning is definitely the most important aspect for each user group after handled data. Booking and payment is in the middle, while the comfort and supplementary information seem to be the less important to all passengers in the average. Furthermore comparing the results of the students and workers there is almost no difference between these user groups. The obtained values for the questions were weighted according to the user’s preferences and were compared to the original values. In this case the differences among user groups showed more relevant differences, especially in the case of pensioners. Also more variance was measured in terms of single questions. The biggest changes can be obtain for the aspects regarding route planning and handled data. Based on the aggregated results weighting coefficients were defined for the user groups, which affect the evaluation of journey planners. The final results of the evaluation were calculated, and a ranking among the journey planners was realized. Keywords: user groups; evaluation; survey; journey planners


112


Traffic indicators, accidents and rain: some relationships calibrated on a French urban motorway network Maurice Arona*, Romain Billotb, Nour-Eddin El-Faouzib, Régine Seidowskya a

University Paris-Est, Ifsttar, Cosys-Grettia, Marne-la-Vallée 77447, France b University Lyon, Ifsttar, Cosys-Licit, Lyon, 69000, France

Abstract – Paper 116 The purpose of this paper is to study the link between the occurrence of injury road accidents, the prevailing traffic conditions, and the occurrence of rain. Traffic conditions were extracted from a one year traffic database which covers 150 kilometres of two or three lanes urban motorways near the city of Marseille, in the south of France. 208 loop detectors provide the individual speeds, headways, arrival times and lengths of vehicles. Based on this information, thirteen aggregated traffic variables were constituted every six minutes, such as the average speed, occupancy, short time headways and a few combinations of speed, relative speed and time gaps. 292 injuries or fatal accidents occurred on the network during the same year. The French accident database provides their characteristics - location, time, and type of accidents, meteorological conditions and other parameters addressing the infrastructure, the driver and the vehicle. The rain occurrence is provided, every six minutes, from a meteorological station. A set of safety performance functions were calibrated, each one giving the risk of injury accident by vehicle-kilometre according to the level of one traffic variable and according to the occurrence of rain. Generally based on logistic regression models, analyses were carried out separately by lane, for night and daytime, and for two types of accidents (single vehicle accidents and crashes between vehicles). Their relevance is discussed, and perspectives outlined. Keywords: Traffic data; accident; rain;surrogate data; traffic indicators; urban motorway;risk, safety performance function, logistic regression .


113


Impact of rebalancing on the performance of automated mobility on demand systems Katarzyna Anna Marczukab*, Harold Soh Soon Hongb, Carlos Miguel Lima De Azevedob, Emilio Frazzolic, Der-Horng Leea a National University of Singapore, Engineering Drive 2, Singapore 117576, Singapore Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, 1 CREATE Way, Singapore 138602, Singapore c Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, US

b

Abstract – Paper 118 Carsharing offers its customers car rentals for a short period of time. Despite growing popularity, carsharing remains a niche product due to round-trip and rebalancing issues. A potential solution is Autonomous Mobility on Demand (AMOD), which provides one-way car sharing with self-driving electric vehicles. System-level coordination allows autonomous vehicles to cooperate—making better use of road infrastructure—and rebalance themselves over time. That said, important questions regarding fleet management remain: how many autonomous cars do we need? Where should we locate AMOD stations (facilities)? This research explores the trade-offs between fleet size, car park locations and rebalancing policies, with the objective of maximizing the demand level that can be satisfactorily served within the Central Business District of Singapore. Our methodology is simulation-based and we make use of SimMobility—an agent-based microscopic simulation platform—to analyze the outcome of different scenarios. Based on the results, we give supporting evidence that the AMOD systems lead to higher utilization rates and in that sense, are more efficient compared with the private vehicles. Keywords: automated mobility on demand; rebalancing; agent-based simulation; SimMobility;


114


Fuzzy Logic-Based Incident Detection System Using Loop Detectors Data Riccardo Rossi a, Massimiliano Gastaldi a, Gregorio Gecchele a*, Valeria Barbaro a a

University of Padova - Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Via Marzolo 9, Padova 35131, Italy

Abstract – Paper 120 Vehicle loop detectors or other equipment installed on cross-sections are commonly used for monitoring traffic flow conditions on road network. For operational analysis it is crucial to distinguish between low level of service related to oversaturated conditions and generated by extraordinary events as incidents. In case of incident it is fundamental to have a prompt response in order to activate any requested countermeasure, such as rescue activation and traffic detour. The basic idea of the research is to implement a control system which recognizes incidents from vehicle loop detectors data (system control), and identifies the optimal position of loop detectors (system design). The system was developed using fuzzy logic concepts and calibrated using data from micro simulation experiments. Micro simulation approach is justified from the impossibility to get the requested data from on-field observations. The analysis has been focused on a two-way four-lane freeway basic segment; traffic flow variables (Density, Space Mean Speed and Flow Rate) were estimated with reference to the set of consecutive time intervals (one-minute long) belonging to the whole observation time period (3 hours). The system has a two-level structure, whose main input is the gap between ordinary and current conditions in the space Density / Space Mean Speed / Flow Rate. In the first level two FISs are used to process one-minute traffic data coming respectively from incident upstream and downstream detectors. In the second level the outputs of the first level FISs are combined in order to carry out the final decision about the identified event (incident / no incident). Simulated data were obtained running the model several times (10 runs) for each traffic volume class adopted in the analysis (1,000, 2,000, 3,000, 3,500 vehicles/hour), with different random number seeds. Calibration dataset was used to determine the knowledge base of each FIS using the open-source software FisPro, and the remaining data (validation dataset) to evaluate the performance of the system. The main finding of the study is that the detection system shows excellent False Alarm Rate and satisfactory Mean Time To Detection. Furthermore, for high flow rate values (more than 3,000 veh/h) performance are excellent for any distance among loops tested; for low flow rate values (less than 3,000 veh/h) performance decrease as the distance among loops increases. Keywords: Automatic Incident Detection; Fuzzy Logic; Loop Detectors; Microsimulation


115


Optimal Critical Infrastructure Retrofitting Model for Evacuation Planning Yuval Hadas a,*, Riccardo Rossi b, Massimiliano Gastaldi b, Carlo Pellegrino b, Mariano Angelo Zanini b, Claudio Modena b a Bar-Illan University, Department of Management, Max ve-Anna Webb street, Ramat Gan 5290002, Israel University of Padova, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Via Marzolo 9, Padova 35131, Italy

b

Abstract – Paper 121 In emergency situations, it is necessary to safely evacuate the population in order to save lives. The road network infrastructure is vulnerable for extreme events, and as a result its ability to supply the required capacity can be seriously hampered. Hence, it is crucial to identify those critical segments that prohibit safe evacuation, and find an optimal retrofit scheme at the network level in order to minimize evacuation time. This work introduces an emergency evacuation model that considers infrastructures vulnerability, event location and magnitude, road network, transportation demand and evacuation areas in order to identify the critical infrastructures and recommend budget allocation for increasing network capacity for minimizing evacuation time, given budget alternatives. The infrastructures' analysis was based on the knowledge about mechanics characteristics of a set of bridges, and about a set of possible seismic scenarios related to the area of interest. By using fragility curves of bridges, the damage state of them has been assessed. By making a series of hypotheses on how a bridge damage state can influence links’ functionality, reduced capacity was assigned to the road network. The result is the estimation of the retrofit cost needed for a specific seismic scenario, considering the most effective retrofit intervention type, previously identified for each bridge. The infrastructures' analysis results were used by the evacuation model for optimal budget allocation of retrofits strategies in order to attain a desired evacuation time frame. The procedure has been applied to an urban network in north Italy. Keywords: Evacuation; Emergency; Network rehabilitation; Earthquake; Road network capacity; Bridges; Accessibility


116


On the Network-wide Relationship between Average Flow, Exit Flow, and Input Flow Meead Saberia*, Ali Zockaieb, Hani Mahmassanib a

Institute of Transport Studies, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Melbourne 3800, Australia b Transportation Center, Northwestern University, Evanston 6028, USA

Abstract – Paper 122 A well-defined non-hysteretic Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram or Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD) has been shown to exist only when congestion distribution in the network is homogenous and the average trip lengths are invariant. Under the same conditions, an analogous relationship between vehicle accumulation in the network and trip completion rate (or exit flow) also exists, which is known as Network Exit Function (NEF). In this study, we first explore the relationship between average network flow and exit flow in steady and non-steady states. We show that when the network is in a steady state, the relationship is linear. However in a non-steady state, the relationship becomes highly scattered and non-linear. The relationship remains scattered even when the fraction of adaptive drivers is large. The paper also explores the 3-dimensional relationship between input flow, exit flow, and average network flow in different states. Results provide a better understanding of the effects of network-wide queuing and adaptive driving on network traffic flow dynamics. Keywords: Network Traffic Flow, Network Fundamental Diagram, Network Exit Function, Adaptive Driving


117


A qualitative model to evaluate the financial effects of innovations in the rail sector Dirk Bruckmanna, Ulrich Weidmannb and Axel Bomhauer-Beinsb,* a

Hochschule Rhein-Waal, University of Applied Sciences, Friedrich-Heinrich-Allee 25, 47475 Kamp-Lintfort, Germany b ETH Zurich, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract – Paper 123 Until the 2000s railway companies in Europe integrated almost each element of the railway system internal. As result of the European railway packages these incumbent companies were subdivided into infrastructure managers and railway undertakings. The competition in the rail sector and the changing markets encouraged new companies with completely new business models to enter the railway market. The new regulation generated entirely new roles in the railway sector. Thus, nowadays lots of companies with very different business models are active in the railway sector. These companies cover different parts of the value chain and have both internal and external interfaces. Thus, a new model to evaluate funding models under these changing boundary conditions is essential. The Institute of Transport Planning and Systems (IVT) developed a new role model to describe internal and external financial flows in the rail sector focusing on the financial issues of innovation. Initially all roles in the railway sector were defined and described. A role is the smallest not further divisible function in the railway system. Each role assigns to one field of the railway sector (infrastructure, service provider, operator and rolling stock) or to external environment. Thereby one company can cover multiple roles within the railway system. Thus, the former state railways with its wide product portfolio cover numerous roles in the railway system. The next step is to evaluate the relationships between the stakeholders within the system and to show the resulting financial flows within the railway system. The role model allows to illustrate company internal flows (e.g. within integrated railway companies) as well as company external flows between different undertakings. E.g. in the model is no differentiation between a supply of rolling stock by an internal division or by a rolling stock leasing company. As innovations usually tackle the economics of more than one role in the system, the model allocates clearly the qualitative economic effects of the innovations. The illustration of the financial flows allows derive compensation models between the roles gaining profit from an innovation and the roles, which lose profitability. The model also allows a rough estimation of the transaction effort for the compensation models. At least IVT proofed the applicability in three case studies. These case studies resulted that one of the mayor obstacles for innovation in the railway system are the missing direct financial flows between infrastructure and rolling stock. Keywords: railway; innovation; funding; role model


118


Assessing the impact of air liberalisation using a long-term air passenger demand model Vincent Benezecha*, Luis M. Martineza a

International Transport Forum (OECD), 2-4 Rue Louis David, 5th Floor, 75016 Paris, France

Abstract – Paper 124 International air traffic has been increasing at an annual average rate of 5% in the last decade, showing strong dynamics in the sector. Understanding the evolution of air traffic demand in the coming decades, especially in emerging markets, is crucial from a sustainable development perspective. The proposed global air passenger model examines the impact of different liberalisation scenarios on global passenger volumes by modelling explicitly the interaction between the air network (frequency, prices) and passenger demand. In the model, the world is discretised into 310 regions, each linked to at least one international airport. A synthetic global network model links the different regions. It is based on 2010 data and contains, for each link, frequency, price, distance and travel time. A gravitational model assesses the fulfillment of market potential between origindestination pairs given air market and socio-economic attributes and a route choice model assigns passenger volumes on the different possible itineraries, including indirect ones. Both models are calibrated jointly using on-flight passenger data provided by ICAO for the whole world. To test the impact of air liberalisation on transport demand and CO 2 emissions, three scenarios relating to network connectivity, frequency and prices are built. They show that the currently observed levels of growth can only continue in the coming decades if the air network is flexible enough to sustain the exogenous growth in passenger volumes – due to economic and demographic growth – and create induced demand. The results also highlight that recent technological developments may not be enough to curb CO2 emissions while maintaining demand growth. Keywords: Air liberalisation, passenger air transport, demand forecasting, CO2 emissions


119


Comparison of two MCDM methodologies in aircraft type selection problem Slavica Dožić a, Milica Kalić a * a

Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Vojvode Stepe 305, Belgrade 11000, Serbia

Abstract – Paper 125 Fleet planning in an airline is a process of strategic importance. The goal is to bring the airline capacity and passenger demand in the observed market conditions and economic environment as close as possible. Planners very often have to make certain decisions balancing multiple, usually conflicting criteria. The interests of both the airline and passengers must be considered, as well as the operational requirements. In order to provide a satisfactory choice while dealing with multiple criteria, the planners apply some of the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods as an aid to decision making. As the aircraft type selection embodies inherent multi-criteria decision making, two MCDM methods, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Even Swaps Method (ESM) are applied in this paper. The AHP implies dividing the problem into a hierarchy of issues which should be considered in the work. This methodology considers a set of chosen criteria and a set of alternatives among which the best solution regarding the weights of criteria and alternatives is to be found. The pairwise comparison method is used to compare alternatives and determine their importance over each other. Even swaps method provides a practical way of making trade-offs among any set of objectives across a range of alternatives. The method forces decision-makers to think about the value of one objective in terms of another and to make smart decisions related to aircraft type considering different criteria and making wise trade-offs. It should be noted that both of the methods use quantitative as well as qualitative data (that are translated into numbers). The MCDM methods are illustrated with the case study of a hypothetical regional airline operating in the area of Southeast Europe with its base at Belgrade Airport. These methods are compared, as well as solutions they arrived at. Considering the difference between the AHP and ESM, the sensitivity analysis is carried out in different ways. In the AHP the sensitivity of alternative ratings in respect to different pairwise comparisons of the alternatives is analysed, while in the even swaps method the objective ranking across alternatives is varied in order to learn solution sensitivity. Keywords: Aircraft Selection, AHP, Even Swaps, Sensitivity Analysis


120


Effect of Adverse Weather Conditions on Istanbul Motorways Göker Aksoya,* , Kemal Selçuk Öğüta a

Istanbul Technical University, Department of Civil Engineering, Ayazaga Campus, 34469, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract – Paper 127 Motorways are always suffer from congestion based on dynamic nature of traffic flow and human behavior. Adverse weather conditions have remarkable impact on congestion due to various influences on driver perception. Drivers tend to cruise lower speeds and choose higher headways because of low visibility and unsafe driving situations. This study aims to investigate the impact of weather conditions on free flow speed (FFS) and capacity by using rain, snow precipitation and road temperature. Analyses were conducted for throughout the winter season (01.10.2014 – 28.02.2015) on 4-lane basic motorway segment of İstanbul. Initially the effects of each weather variables on FFS are modeled separately with regression analysis. In the literature, FFS can be observed until a threshold flow rate (FR). After this threshold, drivers cannot control their speeds freely, flow speed decrease slightly with the increase of FR until capacity. Even though this threshold FR change according to FFS, it is always higher than 1000 pcu/h/lane. Thus in this study, in the undersaturated region, it is assumed that the FR between 1-1000 pcu/h/lane moves with FFS. This assumption is similarly verified by the speed-FR diagram. Inverse relation is determined between FFS and snow, rain precipitation. Higher speed variations exist in snow when compared to rain. FFS change throughout the intervals 40-94 km/h for snowfall, 71-96 km/h in rainfall. As the FFS of sunny days are observed between 80-104 km/h. Conversely, logarithmic direct relationship is determined between road temperature and FFS. Then, all weather parameters are analyzed by using multiple regression. As snow and rain precipitation cannot occur simultaneously, 2 separate multiple regression models for rain and snow precipitation are developed. When R 2 and variables coefficients are investigated, it is determined that negative effect of snow is more obvious and higher compared to same amount of rain. Accordingly, the effect of weather conditions on capacity is analyzed with total of 15 sunny, snowy and rainy days data. Speed-FR diagram of snowy days is found extremely scattered and unusual. Rain similarly effects speed variation and found quite scattered when FR is higher than 1000 pcu/h/lane. When the average of greatest 1% FR is assumed as capacity flow, a decrease of 8% in rainy and 15% in snowy days is calculated. Developed models with capacity analyses point out the crucial effect of weather conditions on traffic flow and will help to explain effects of each weather condition on motorway traffic. Keywords: free flow speed; adverse weather; capacity; urban motorway


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Railway infrastructure maintenance – a survey of planning problems and conducted research Tomas Lidéna* a

Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Norrköping SE-601 74, Sweden

Abstract – Paper 130 Railway infrastructure maintenance consumes very large budgets, is complicated to organize and has numerous challenging planning problems. Specifically, the coordination with train traffic operation is of crucial importance. Despite this, little work has been conducted in the operations research area regarding infrastructure maintenance as compared to train traffic operations. The aim of this paper is to give a comprehensive overview of the railway infrastructure maintenance field, the planning problems it contains and the research that has been conducted so far. We present (i) a catalogue of planning problems, based on a series of interviews with experts and planners representing all major stake holders in Sweden and (ii) an extensive literature overview covering more than 60 research references published until 2014 regarding the use of mathematical methods and optimization for solving such planning problems. From this we extract some statistics and a mapping which identify the major lines of work as well as research gaps. Keywords: Maintenance planning; Operations research; Railway infrastructure

* Presenting author, E-mail address: [email protected]

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Anticipatory service network design of bike sharing systems Bruno A. Neumann-Saavedraa, *, Patrick Vogela, Dirk C. Mattfelda Decision Support Group, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Mühlenpfordtstraße 23, 38106, Braunschweig, Germany

Abstract – Paper 131 Today`s conurbations suffer from inefficiency in transportation systems. Bike sharing systems (BSS) combine the advantages of public and private transportation to better exploit the given transportation infrastructure. They provide bikes for short-term trips at automated rental stations. However, spatio-temporal variation of bike rentals leads to imbalances in the distribution of bikes, causing full or empty stations in the course of the day. Ensuring the reliable provision of bike and free bike racks is crucial for the viability of these systems. On the tactical planning level, target fill levels of bikes at stations are determined to provide reliability in service. On the operational planning level, the BSS operator relocates bikes in vehicles among stations based on target fill levels. A recent approach in tactical service network design (SND) anticipates relocation operations of BSS by means of a dynamic transportation model yielding the required demand of relocation services (RS). A RS is described by pickup and return station, time period, and the number of relocated bikes. RS represent the design decision for implementing a service between two stations in each period for each day of the system operation. The output of the SND model are the time-dependent target fill levels at stations and the set of cost-efficient RS to facilitate these target fill levels. However, the existing approach neglects the sequence of RS into tours, thus leading to a weak anticipation of operational decisions. We extend an existing SND approach by including the concept of service tours (ST). RS are sequenced in ST which start and end at the depot. Experiments shows that the ST obtained by the extended SND yield a stronger anticipation of operational decisions. Keywords: bike sharing systems; service network design; operational anticipation


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Analyzing Traffic Patterns on Street Segments Based on GPS Data using R Emilian Neculaa,* a

Faculty of Computer Science, University Al. I. Cuza, General Berthelot, 16, Iasi 700483, Romania

Abstract – Paper 132 Nowadays GPS enabled devices are widely spread making the collection of GPS data more accessible. Many drivers carry their smart phones all the time making their spatial temporal coordinates available. So with the increasing availability of high resolution GPS traces from vehicles in large urban areas, there is an opportunity to infer useful patterns and trends which till now has not been possible. The inferred trends can then be used as input into policy planning across a variety of domains including traffic management, urban planning and environmental monitoring. In this research, we plan to apply a statistical approach on 10000 vehicle GPS traces, from around 3600 drivers which are mined to extract the outlier traffic pattern to be used further in an intelligent transportation system (ITS). The data obtained in the collection stage of the research were processed in real-time and successfully

broadcast on the Internet, demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed system for real-time traffic monitoring. Thus if a city is partitioned into a grid and the road infrastructure is organized as segments in a graph, then at a given time we can estimate the count of the number of drivers in the grid cells. We can also make an assumption regarding the congestion level in a specific area taking into account the speed for each vehicle from the GPS log data. Over time, the visited segments will settle into a pattern and vary periodically. For example, during morning rush hour more drivers will be concentrated in business, education districts than at other times of the day. Similarly, in the afternoon the drivers tend to occupy the road infrastructure nearby malls and shopping areas. We will prove this kind of route choice behaviour using R. R provides an environment in which we can perform statistical analysis and produce graphics to annotate different map layers. R can be viewed as a programming language that comes with a large library of pre-defined functions scaled to work fast with large GPS datasets. Our objective is to identify contiguous set of road segments and time intervals which have the largest statistically significant relevance in forming the traffic congestions. From our research a 2-3% penetration rate of cell phones in the driver population is enough to provide accurate measurements of the velocity of the traffic flow and identification of traffic patterns. Keywords: GPS patterns; traffic flow; car mobility; R-language; congestion


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A semi-decentralized control strategy for urban traffic Nadir Farhi a, *, Cyril Nguyen Van Phu a, Mouna Amir a, b, Habib Haj-Salem a, JeanPatrick Lebacque a a

Université Paris-Est, COSYS, GRETTIA, IFSTTAR, F-77447 Marne-la-Vallée, France b University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France

Abstract – Paper 133 We present in this article a semi-decentralized approach for urban traffic control, based on the TUC (Traffic responsive Urban Control) strategy. We assume that the control is centralized as in the TUC strategy, but we introduce a contention time window inside the cycle time, where the traffic light is yellow for antagonistic stages, which alternate a priority rule. The idea of introducing this time window is to reduce the red time inside the cycle, and by that, increase the capacity of the network junctions. In practice, the priority rule could be applied using vehicle-to-vehicle (v2v) or vehicle-to-infrastructure (v2i) communications. The vehicles having the priority pass almost normally through the junction, while the others reduce their speed and yield the way. We propose a model for the dynamics and the control of such a system. The model is still formulated as a linear quadratic problem, for which the feedback control law is calculated off-line, and applied in real time. The model is implemented using the Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) tool in a small regular (American-like) network configuration. The results are presented and compared to the classical TUC strategy. Keywords: Traffic control; cooperative ITS; traffic modeling.


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Improving carsharing reservation systems by variable quality of service and relocations operations Goran Molnara, *, Gonçalo Correiab a

b

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb,Unska 3, 10000 Zagreb,Croatia Department of Transport and Planning, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048 - 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 134 Carsharing systems offer the possibility of using a car without having to own it. Typical use case consists of a user taking the nearest available vehicle, travelling to the desired destination(s) and leaving the car on a suitable location after use. Since mobility patterns change along the day, the user has no guarantee that his area will have a vehicle available at a desired departure time. To help solve this problem and improve customer satisfaction, some operators are offering vehicle reservations. Such services give users the guarantee that a car will be available at their desired location and time. A simple strategy to assure that is vehicle locking, whereby a car in the agreed pick-up location is locked from the moment of the reservation until it is taken. However, this method reduces car utilization since locked cars cannot be accessed by any other user. Notable losses can be caused by having too much idle time in the fleet and various approaches have been tested to reduce these undesirable effects. Some providers are allowing only very short reservations (e.g. 30 minutes before the trip). Others are providing free short reservations and charging longer ones which discourages long reservations and compensates economic impact of reduced fleet use. While they can keep the system profitable, both of these constraints significantly limit usability of the reservation service, rendering it unsuitable or expensive for trips that are planned more than a very short time ahead. In this paper, we propose an innovative technique that combines relocations with vehicle locking to make reservations possible for longer periods as well as to ensure, even not allowing the user to choose their car, that the reserved cars are dropped-off close to the user. In our model, a free-floating carsharing system is operating in a city divided into a set of cells, with guaranteed reservation time and vehicle-touser proximity defined for each cell independently. The devised model allows estimating traffic and profit depending on these parameters. We use a metaheuristic optimisation technique to discover regions of the city where reservation times can be increased while retaining the system profitable. The proposed technique is tested on a case study of simulated carsharing trips during a typical working day in the Lisbon municipality, Portugal. Keywords: free-floating carsharing, metaheuristic, optimisation, reservation, relocations, vehicle locking, quality of service


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Development of Coordinated Ramp-Metering based on MultiObjective Nonlinear Optimization Technique: Traffic and Safety Haj Salem Habib a*, Farhi Nadira, Lebacque Jean-Patricka a

IFSTTAR/GRETITA, 14-20, Bd Newton, 77447 Marne-La-Vallée Cedex2, France,

Abstract – Paper 139 A number of approaches have been developed in the past for the design of control strategies that involve control measures such as route recommendation via Variable Message Signs (VMS) devices or equipped vehicles, ramp metering, motorway-tomotorway control (MTMC), automatic incident detection (AID), hard lane shoulder etc. Several approaches were investigated including expert systems, fuzzy systems, neural networks, and classical feedback control and optimal control. In general, traffic control systems within corridors or motorway networks have been developed independently for each individual control measure attempting to optimize traffic flow on the motorway or the urban road network or the both components. With respect to the optimal control, the problem formulation was focused on the development of the integrated strategies which take into account simultaneously several control strategies such as ramp metering, MTMC, user’s guidance. This global point of view suggests that control measures within the entire network should be designed in an integrated way, or, at least, they should be suitably coordinated during operation, so as to meet the overall objectives. These approaches are very promising. Nevertheless, whatever considered approach, in general, the considered objective function is mainly focused on the optimization of the traffic index such as minimizing the Total Time Spent index (TTS) in the considered system. In particular, the safety aspect is considered as an indirect cost function and computed during the evaluation process. This paper is focused on the development of control strategy based on multi-objective index function, including traffic and safety indices and in particular the risk index model. The first part of this paper is dedicated to the development of the risk index modelling. The second part is focalized on the application of the optimal control for the coordinated ramp metering using the multi-objective function. The numerical solution of a formulated large-scale nonlinear optimal control problem is effectuated by application of a non-linear optimization techniques based on the optimal control theory which is able to deal straightforwardly with non-linear features. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency of this multi-objective non-linear approach by using a macroscopic multi-model simulation tool namely MAGISTER which is able to simulate traffic flow phenomena in corridor networks of arbitrary topology. Keywords: optimal control, safety, multi-objective function


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A new Agent-based model to simulate the impact on urban mobility of shared mobility systems with self-driving vehicles Luís M. Martineza *, José Manuel Viegasa a

International Transport Forum (OECD), 2-4 Rue Louis David, 5th Floor, 75016 Paris, France

Abstract – Paper 140 This paper presents a new simulation procedure to assess the potential outcomes of a radical change in urban mobility configuration that would result from a large scale deployment of self-driving shared mobility systems. The developed model comprises two possible sharing alternatives: a ridesharing system, where travelers share time and space resources by travelling in the same car simultaneously; and a carsharing system, where travelers share time resources by travelling in the same car sequentially. The developed model simulates the behavior of all players of this system: the travelers, potential users of the shared mobility system; the cars, which dynamically are routed in the road network to pick-up and drop-off clients or move to/from/between stations; and mobility dispatcher that assigns efficiently cars to clients, respecting the defined service quality standards (waiting time, detour time). The model is tested for the city of Lisbon and the main mobility outputs are measured against the current situation to assess the impacts of the implementation of such a system. Keywords: ridesharing; carsharing; agent-based model; autonomous vehicles


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Interventions in bicycle infrastructure, lessons from Dutch and Danish cases Kees van Goeverden a*, Thomas Sick Nielsen b, Henrik Harder c, Rob van Nes a a

b

Delft University of Technology, Transport and Planning Department, Stevinweg 1, 2628CN Delft, Netherlands Technical University of Denmark, Department of Transport, Bygningstorvet, Building 116B, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark c Aalborg University, Department of Architecture,Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg, Denmark

Abstract – Paper 141 Today the interest in cycling is increasing worldwide and in many countries authorities are faced with the question how cycling can be promoted efficiently. In the Netherlands and Denmark, this question came up already in the 1970s when the downsides of the rapidly increasing motorisation became evident. At the time, in both countries large scale interventions in bicycle infrastructure were introduced and evaluated extensively in order to create knowledge on efficient promoting of cycling in urban areas. The interventions included the construction of new bicycle routes on urban arterials in some larger cities and an area wide comprehensive upgrade of the bicycle network one medium sized city (Delft). The evaluations were based on before and after studies where in the case of Delft also a long-term after study was performed. The evaluations produced a wealth of information about the impacts of interventions in bicycle infrastructure on travel choices, safety, design appreciation, and other factors. These clarify under which conditions certain measures are effective or not and inform about the effectiveness of improving a single route versus upgrading a whole network. The information from the studies was used in both countries for formulating guidelines for road and bicycle infrastructure design. However, at that time the study results were not shared with the international scientific audience. The paper describes briefly the classical cases and the main study results. The outcomes of the classical studies are compared with those of some more recent cases of assessed interventions in urban bicycle infrastructure in the Danish largest cities. Generally the outcomes are in line with those from the classical studies. This indicates that results of the latter are rather timeless and are likely to be still generally valid. In addition to studies that traditionally focus on dedicated bicycle infrastructure, two cases of shared space are discussed, a rather new type of intervention that assumes mixed use of infrastructure. One case is from Denmark, the other from the Netherlands. The paper will so uncover the valuable results of the possibly largest evaluations of interventions in bicycle infrastructure ever made, verify these by examining more recent studies, and contribute to the discussion of shared space. Keywords: interventions bicycle infrastructure; bicycle promotion; travel behaviour; traffic safety; shared space


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Iterative optimization for adaptive anticipatory control in urban traffic networks Wei Huang a*, Francesco Viti b, Chris M.J. Tampère a a

b

Leuven Mobility Research Center, CIB, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300A, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium Faculty of Science, Technology and Communication, University of Luxembourg, rue R. Coudenhove-Kalergi, L-1359 Luxembourg

Abstract – Paper 142 Signal control in urban traffic networks offers high opportunity to improve traffic operations. A network control strategy called anticipatory control takes into account travelers’ route choice response and adapts the signal timings with the aim of controlling the resulting equilibrium flow patterns in the networks. This study investigates adaptive anticipatory traffic control problems in the context of inaccurate network equilibrium modelling. The objective is to develop a reality-tracking control scheme for (daily) repeated traffic operations, which is able to drive traffic towards its true optimal operating conditions, such as minimal total travel cost over the network. A method of Iterative Optimizing Control with Model Bias Correction (IOCMBC) is proposed, whereby model bias is corrected using link flow measurements and the correction is used for the subsequent control optimization. Calculating the derivative of real equilibrium flows with respect to signal control variables is crucial to the IOCMBC method. Determining the flow derivatives analytically is not straightforward, especially when a complex system is in consideration. A technique of finite difference is usually useful for estimating the derivatives. As perturbing each signal input individually around the current operating point is impractical in real traffic operations, a measurement-based finite difference technique is introduced for calculating the operational derivatives. Accuracy of the derivatives greatly influences the quality of the IOCMBC solution. In real networks, the presence of measurement noise is detrimental to the accuracy of the derivative estimates, thus affecting the control performance. This concern brings up a second contribution of the present study, that is, to construct a reliable method for reducing the impact of measurement noise on the accuracy of the operational derivatives. A dualtype method is proposed. It constructs a constraint and ensures that the new control input does not introduce ill-conditioning in the forthcoming derivative estimation. Finally, the method of IOCMBC with a dual constraint is applied so as to generate new signal settings taking into account both optimal network performance and accurate derivative estimation. The theoretical foundations and algorithmic implementation of IOCMBC are presented. Numerical example in a test network verifies the effectiveness of the proposed IOCMBC method regarding its goal of tracking reality and achieving true optimum in the presence of model uncertainty as well as measurement noise. Keywords: anticipatory traffic control; adaptive signal control; inaccurate equilibrium model; iterative optimization; model bias correction


130


Solving The Flight Gate Assignment Problem Fusing Two Metaheuristic Approaches Mario Marinellia, Gianvito Palmisanoa*, Mauro Dell'Orcoa, Michele Ottomanellia a

D.I.C.A.T.E.Ch., Technical University of Bari , via Orabona 4 - 70125 Bari

Abstract – Paper 144 One of the most important activity in airport operations is the gate scheduling. It is concerned with finding an assignment of flights to terminal and ramp positions (gates), and an assignment of the start and completion times of the processing of a flight at its position. In the past decades, with the increase of civil air-traffic and the corresponding growth of airports, the complexity of the task has increased significantly. The objectives related to the flight gate assignment problem (FGAP) include the minimization of the number of flights assigned to remote terminals and the minimization of the total walking distance. The main aim of this research is to find a methodology to solve the FGAP. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach called Biogeography-based Bee Colony Optimization (B-BCO). This approach is an obtained fusing two metaheuristics: biogeography-based (BBO) and bee colony optimization (BCO) algorithms. BBO is an approach based on the mathematical model of organism distribution in biological systems. It is an evolutionary process that achieves information sharing by biogeography-based migration operators. In BBO, habitats represent candidate problem solutions, and species migration represents the sharing of features between candidate solutions according to the fitness of the habitats. This process optimizes a problem by maintaining a population of candidate solutions, and creating new candidate solutions by combining existing ones. In this way the objective function is treated as a black box that merely provides a measure of quality given a candidate solution. BCO is an approach that imitates the behaviour of the bees in the nature when looking for a food, by simulating the foraging behaviour. Population of agents (artificial bees) consisting of bees collaboratively searches for the optimal solution. Every artificial bee generates one solution to the problem. This algorithm is composed of two alternating phases, forward pass and backward pass. In each forward pass, every artificial bee explores the search space. It applies a predefined number of moves, which construct and/or improve the solution, yielding to a new solution. The BCO search is running in iterations until some predefined stopping criteria is satisfied. The proposed BBCO model integrates the BBO migration operator into to bee's search behaviour. Preliminary results of the BBCO are promising. These results have highlighted better performance of the proposed approach in solving FGAP when compared to BCO. Concluding, the proposed method can be considered as a good tool to support decision-making in flight scheduling.

Keywords: Flight gate assignment; Bee Colony Optimization; Biogeography Based Optimization; Multicriteria analysis


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Analysis of tradable bottleneck permits scheme when marginal utility of toll cost changes among drivers Katsuya Sakai a*, Takahiko Kusakabe a, Yasuo Asakura a a

Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1-M1-20 O-okayama Meguro Tokyo, 152-8552, Japan

Abstract – Paper 147 This study proposes a congestion pricing scheme using tradable bottleneck permits (TBP) and Pareto improving even if the revenue is not refunded to drivers. TBP scheme is originally one of the first-best time-varying pricing schemes. In order to resolve a congestion problem during morning rush hour in a corridor with a single bottleneck, the scheme provides these functions as: (i) a road administrator issues permits that allow the holders to pass through the bottleneck at a pre-specified time period (“bottleneck permits”), (ii) a new trading market is established for bottleneck permits valid for a pre-specified time period. When the amount of the issued bottleneck permits is equal to the bottleneck capacity, congestion is completely eliminated and thus the social cost is minimized. However, it is not revealed that the scheme could achieve a Pareto improvement when marginal utility of toll cost changes among drivers. This study aims to analyze the effects of TBP on departure time choice of drivers. In particular, we show the time dependent utility of drivers when they have different schedule flexibility and marginal utility of toll cost. The cases with and without TBP scheme are analytically compared. Then, we propose the TBP scheme which achieves a Pareto improvement without a road administrator refunding the revenues to drivers. We focused on a one-to-one network with a single bottleneck and employed a departure time choice model to discuss the case that there exists heterogeneity in schedule flexibility and marginal utility of toll cost. We assumed two classes for two attributes as the heterogeneity respectively: “busy/free” and “rich/poor”, and formulated the drivers’ utility changes caused by implementation of TBP. In this assumption, we showed that a Pareto improvement was not achieved, where the utility of “busy-poor” drivers was decreased by the effect of TBP. We proposed 0artial implementation of TBP as a scheme for a Pareto improvement. In this scheme, the bottleneck capacity is assigned to drivers with and without TBP, where the driver who has a bottleneck permit can pass through the bottleneck without congestion and a driver without it goes through congestion. As a result, we revealed conditions in the amount of the bottleneck permits which can satisfy a Pareto improvement. This study finally discussed the requirements for a Pareto improvement that were derived by the proportion of the amount of issued bottleneck permits, the number of each class drivers, and the gap between the classes. Keywords: Tradable bottleneck permits scheme; Bottleneck permits; Pareto improvement; Heterogeneity


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Exploiting Travel Time Information for Reliable Routing in City Logistics Patrick-Oliver Groß a, *, Marlin W. Ulmer a, Jan F. Ehmke b, Dirk C. Mattfeld a a

Technische Universität Braunschweig, Decision Support Group, Mühlenpfordtstraße 23, 38106 Braunschweig b Freie Universität Berlin, Advanced Business Analytics Group, Garystraße 21, 14195 Berlin

Abstract – Paper 150 Due to varying traffic volumes and limited traffic infrastructure in urban areas, travel times generally are uncertain and differ during the day. In this environment, city logistics service providers (CLSP) have to fulfill deliveries cost-efficient and reliable. To ensure cost-efficient routing while satisfying promised delivery dates, information on expected travel times between customers’ needs to be exploited. If sufficient amount of data is not available or expensive to acquire, deriving this information presents a major challenge for CLSP. Therefore, we propose the usage of interval travel times (ITT) to enable cost-efficient and reliable routing in urban areas. ITT define an expected range of travel times, which can be derived with relatively low effort by CLSP. We present and discuss the process of deriving ITT. Further, we investigate an existing approach from the domain of robust planning within the scope of routing in urban areas. An exemplary city logistics setting is developed and different routing solutions are examined. Computational experiments show that, in contrast to well-known deterministic approaches, routing considering ITT allows both, cost-efficient and reliable routing. Keywords: reliability; interval travel times; robust; routing; city logistics;


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Microscopic traffic simulation of eco-driving systems using realworld vehicle models Martijn van Noort a, *, Isabel Wilmink a, Johan Olstam b, Andreas Tapani b, James Tate c, Charisma Choudhury c b

a TNO, P.O. Box 49, 2600 AA Delft, The Netherlands Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), SE-58195 Linköping, Sweden c Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

Abstract – Paper 152 Microscopic traffic simulation models are often used to evaluate, ex-ante, the potential impacts of innovative in-vehicle systems on traffic flows. It has become easier to integrate external models into microscopic simulation environments and this offers the possibility to use realistic models in simulation – for example real-world vehicle models. This saves effort on modelling, helps to create more realistic simulations, makes simulation results from different tools more comparable, and allows the use of proprietary “black box” models in simulation. In the ecoDriver project (www.ecodriver-project.eu), different versions of an eco-driving support system are currently tested on the road (using both embedded and nomadic devices) and the results of the real-world tests will be scaled up to the EU level using three different simulation environments: ITS Modeller for motorway traffic situations, RuTSim for rural traffic situations and Aimsun for urban traffic situations). Using three different microsimulation platforms provides the opportunity to crossvalidate the accuracy of the implementation. Simulation is needed for the scaling up so future scenarios with higher penetration rates than can be achieved in the field tests can be studied. Modelling different future scenarios enables testing the robustness of the findings. The ecoDriver support system provides speed and gear advice, and the traffic models will simulate the speed, gear and acceleration choices of drivers in equipped and non-equipped vehicles. In the simulations, the equipped vehicles receive the same (map based) input data as in the real world, and use the same real-world support system to calculate the advice given to the driver. The response of the drivers (to what extent do they comply with an advice) will also be based, as much as is possible, on the real-world behaviour as demonstrated by drivers in the field tests in the ecoDriver project. The paper will discuss different aspects of the realistic modelling of the eco-driving support system. This includes the characteristics of the ecoDriver system and how the models that are used in the field test vehicles are integrated into the simulation environments. The aim is to demonstrate the implications and challenges for simulations that include real-world vehicle models (e.g. specific verification and validation questions, software architecture for the integration, interface requirements, and run time issues). Furthermore, the ecoDriver simulation activities will be placed in a wider context of increasing tool integration and the need for ex-ante evaluations of innovative traffic measures.

Keywords: microscopic simulation; vehicle model; eco-driving, integrated simulation


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Use of DEA and PROMETHEE II to Assess the Performance of Older Drivers Seddigheh Babaee a,*, Maryam Bagherikahvarin b, Renaud Sarrazin c, Yongjun Shen a, Elke Hermans a a

Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Hasselt University, Diepenbeek 3590, Belgium b

c

Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels 1050, Belgium

MSM department, Belgian Road Research Center, Brussels 1200, Belgium

Abstract – Paper 153 In recent years, there has been an increasing concern regarding the safety and mobility of elderly drivers. This study aims to evaluate the overall performance and ranking of a sample of 55 drivers, aged 70 and older, based on data from an assessment battery and a fixed-based driving simulator, by using the concept of composite indicators and multi criteria approach. To do so, drivers completed tests of an assessment battery of psychological and physical aspects as well as knowledge of road signs. Moreover, they took part in a driving simulator test in which scenarios that are known to be difficult for older drivers were included. Composite indicators (CIs) are becoming increasingly recognized as a tool for performance evaluation, benchmarking and policy analysis by summarizing complex and multidimensional issues. One of the essential steps in the construction of composite indicators is aggregation and assignment of weights to each sub-indicator which directly affect the quality and reliability of the calculated CIs. In this regard, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Multi Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) have been acknowledged as two popular methods for aggregation and problem solving: ranking, sorting and choosing. In this case study, we apply a DEA model to calculate the optimal performance index score for each driver. On the other hand, we apply a MCDA method to enrich the analysis of this problem by considering preferential information from Decision Makers (DM) using both the raw and the normalized data. The results of this study show that the best and the worst drivers identified by the two models are similar. These observations point out the interest of using PROMETHEE II (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations) and DEA. The high correlation between these results confirms the robustness of our answers. Keywords: Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding; PROMETHEE II; Data Envelopment Analysis; Composite Indicator; Older Drivers’ Performance


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X2V-Based Information Dissemination for Highway Congestion Reduction Maxime Guériau a,b,*, Romain Billot a, Nour-Eddin El Faouzi a, Salima Hassas b, Frédéric Armetta b a

Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France, ENTPE, LICIT, F-69518, Vaulx-en-Velin, IFSTTAR, LICIT, F-69500, Bron b Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France, LIRIS, F-69000, Lyon

Abstract – Paper 154 Connected and cooperative vehicles rely on communication technologies to share critical information, useful for anticipating potential hazardous situations occurring beyond their respective line of sight. Such intelligent vehicles make use of their connectivity with surrounding equipped vehicles (V2V – vehicle to vehicle) or reachable connected infrastructure (I2V/V2I – infrastructure to vehicle/vehicle to infrastructure) in order to adapt their behavior to the sensed context. These Cooperative Systems are well suited to agent-based modeling since each vehicle has its self-decision process. In this paper, we propose a multi-agent decentralized information dissemination system designed to propagate warning information through traffic flow thanks to X2V communication. We develop a message-based communication protocol to describe warning traffic situations (ramp metering, lane closure, car breakdown …) and link them to a specific context (position, duration, severity of the event). The infrastructure part of the system, composed of Road Side Units (RSU), is in charge of propagating warning messages to vehicles in their communication range. Then, information dissemination is performed by the vehicles which previously get messages and can broadcast them to relevant surrounding vehicles. The message is no longer propagated when the information it contains becomes irrelevant (according to the embedded location and duration of the described event). Vehicles which received warning information try to avoid causing perturbation by applying a cooperative lane-change strategy. In this work, we make the distinction between connected and cooperative vehicles. Connected vehicles are equipped with a communication device and high-level information is displayed in-car to notify the driver who decide to follow or not the given recommendation. The impact of the drivers’ compliance is investigated to show that even a small proportion of cooperative driver can lead to a congestion reduction. In this case, the longitudinal behavior is driven by a car-following model to reproduce the human behavior. In the other hand, cooperative vehicles are viewed as semi-autonomous vehicles for which the acceleration is given by a more complex bilateral-anticipative law designed to homogenize traffic string. Here, vehicles share their position and speed with each others to extend the perception given by their embedded sensors. According to different simulated scenarios (ramp metering, lane closure), we try to investigate the effect of the position of the RSU regarding the event as well as the radius of relevance of the exchanged warning messages. We try several proportions of connected/cooperative vehicles vs. non-connected vehicles to highlight the optimal penetration rate for the system effectiveness.


137


Keywords: Cooperative Intelligent Transportation Systems; Connected Vehicle; Road-Side Unit; Traffic congestion

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On the consistency between travelers’ satisfaction and utility: the case of the University of Luxembourg Sprumont Francois a*, Astegiano Paola b, Viti Francesco a a

Faculty of Science, Technology and Communication, University of Luxembourg, L-1359 Luxembourg, Luxembourg b L-Mob Leuven Mobility Research Center, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300,, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium

Abstract – Paper 155 During the 20th century, car use has constantly increased and became the dominant travelling mode. Some authors argue that, for the first time in history, car use might have reached a peak especially in major European cities and for the commuting trips. The Grand-duchy of Luxembourg and its capital, Luxembourg-city are far from major European capitals standards, and are not aligned to the above trends. Indeed, the country is the 7 th smallest European country and its population barely reaches 550 000 inhabitants. At the national level, the cross-border workers occupy nearly 43% of the available jobs in the country. Because of longer commuting distances, 86% of the cross-border workers commute by car while this figure reaches 74% for the resident workers. This high car use contrasts with the strong modal split targets set up by the Luxembourgish government, which expects in 2020 to obtain a reduction of the overall car use to 60%. The University of Luxembourg is welcoming everyday more than 6500 students and 1500 staff members on 3 main campuses. Thus, the university is an important trip attractor. In 2012, a total of 397 staff members, representing 36.38% of the University employees, filled-in a travel. In this study, we adopted a discrete choice modelling approach to quantify the relevant variables on the commuting behavior of the respondents. In addition to more common model input variables such as trips time & cost, specific variables relevant to this case study will be used (education, nationality, work position). This allows to quantify the utility related to modal choice of the respondents. The innovation of this paper lies in the comparison between revealed satisfaction of the respondents and the modeled utility. Respondents were in fact asked with a Likert scale to rank their mode choice in terms of overall satisfaction. Preliminary analysis shows that long commuting distances or a poor public transport accessibility might lead into a lower class of satisfaction, which is clearly in line with the concept of utility. On the other hand, some statistics are less straightforwardly linked to the utility concept. For instance, only 60% of the car commuters are satisfied of their commuting trip compared to 74% for the public transport users and 100% for the soft modes users. We argue therefore that utility and satisfaction are two rather distinct concepts. The relevance of this is that, when applying transport policy solutions one should question whether the target should be an increase number of people satisfied or to increase the overall utility. As result to answering this question, travel demand management measures integrating both utility and satisfaction aspects might lead to better results than the one dealing only with utility. Keywords: Commuting Behavior; Discrete Choice Modeling; Satisfaction; User Benefits; Travel Survey


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A MIP Heuristic for Multi-Port Stowage Planning Daniela Ambrosinoa*, Massimo Paoluccib , Anna Sciomachena a

Dept. of Economics and Business Studies, University of Genova, Italy Dept. of Informatics, Bioengineering, Robotics and Systems Engineering (DIBRIS), University of Genova, Italy

b

Abstract – Paper 157 In this paper we extend the problem of determining how to stow a given set of containers of different types into the available locations of a containership, that is, the so-called Master Bay Plan Problem (MBPP), to the Multi-Port Master Bay Plan Problem (MP-MBPP). In the MP-MBPP the whole route of the ship is investigated; in particular, at each port of the route different sets of containers must be loaded for being shipped to next ports. Note that, differently from MBPP, in MP-MBPP at each port the sequence of two different handling operations affects the effectiveness of a stowing plan: first, the import containers must be unloaded from the ship, then the export containers can be loaded. Only few papers in the recent literature deal with the MPMBPP. Here, we propose a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) heuristic based on an exact MIP model for the MP-MBPP with the main aim of minimizing the total berthing time of the ship. Unproductive movements are included in the analysis, as well as the workload of the quay cranes used in each port visited by the ship. The novel aspect of the present work is that the proposed MIP heuristic is thought for dealing with effective operative handling operations; in particular, the presence of hatches is taken into account for the final stowage plans and different types of containers are included in the analysis, that is 20’ and 40’ standard containers, reefer and open top ones. The proposed MIP heuristic permits to find good stowage solutions in a short amount of time and thus to include the model into a valuable tool that can help the liner planner during the whole trip of the ship for defining the stowage planning in accordance with new transport demands. Computational tests, executed for ships with increasing capacity up to a very large ship with a capacity of 18000 TEUs, show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Keywords: Maritime logistics; stowage plans; mathematical programming; combinatorial optimization; MIP heuristic.


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Combined solution of capacity expansion and signal setting problems for signalized road networks Ozgur Baskana,*, Cenk Ozanb b

a Department of Civil Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Pamukkale University, Kinikli Campus, 20070, Denizli, Turkey Department of Civil Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Adnan Menderes University, Merkez Campus, 09100, Aydin, Turkey

Abstract – Paper 158 Traffic congestion has been growing at an unsustainable rate and decreasing the quality of life of people living in many countries especially in last few decades. At the same time, congestion causes decreasing accessibility and mobility whereas it leads to increase travel time and air pollution. Although various optimization techniques in determining signal timings or optimal capacity expansion have been discussed separately in the literature, few studies have been considered for solving the both problems simultaneously. Thus, it can be emphasized that the majority of literature fails to highlight an indispensable relationship between these two problems. To fill this gap, a bi-level solution methodology based on Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm is proposed in this study. The upper level deals with minimizing total system travel cost under given budget and signal timing plan while the User Equilibrium link flows are determined by VISUM at the lower level. In this study, the DE based solution algorithm is coded in VBA which is combined with VISUM for solving the problem. In order to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, it is applied to real data of Sioux-Falls city network which has 76 links, 24 nodes and 552 OD trips. In this network, 7 nodes are considered as signalized junction, and 16 links which connect these nodes are chosen as candidate for capacity expansion. Results indicated that the proposed algorithm shows significant performance in solving the combined problem for signalized road networks. Keywords: Capacity expansion; signal optimization; differential evolution; VISUM

* Presenting author E-mail address:[email protected]

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Design and implementation of a Dynamic Speed Limit System in Lille (A25 suburban motorway) David Gil a*, Thomas Durlina and Patrick Palmiera a

Cerema D.Ter NP, 2 rue de Bruxelles, Lille, 59000, France

Abstract – Paper 162 The French Ministry for Transportation has begun to deploy dynamic management systems in suburban motorways. In Lille, DIR Nord, the network operator is implementing a Dynamic Speed Limit System in the A25 highway witch is concerned by traffic jam. During the week, the congestion is caused by a commuting traffic to Lille-Eurometropole (because of economic attractiveness). Local traffic is combined with an important transit from different Northen Sea Ports to Paris. Besides, on Sunday afternoons, this way faces "beach returns". Having followed the first project studies, Cerema was mandated to carry out the project studies to set up the measure.This paper presents the process to develop the Dynamic Speed Limit algorithms. It mainly proposes to detail the principle adopted after project studies. The system has been designed to be reactive with traffic conditions or events, not been too sensible for users or managers. It is based on predefined signal sequences which are correlated with different level of services, possibly different from a section to another one. Based on finished algorithms theory, from the early congestion, the system adapts automatically signal sequences until the return to the initial signals (when the way returns to normal traffic conditions). It has been designed with care to be technically robust and to be acceptable by users to facilitate acceptance. Under the supervision of operators and maintenance services, the system will be implemented and monitored by an experimental plan. By an empirical approach, we want to learn of a measure whose effects will be controlled « every day » (by reporting indicators for direct feedback). Each year, in agreement with the operator, an assessment will be given and the system will evolve to respect initial proposed principles (from the first project studies). Keywords: dynamic speed limit system; experimental plan; acceptable system by users


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Relation between Land Use and Transportation Planning in the Scope of Smart Growth Strategies: Case Study of Denizli, Turkey Görkem Gulhan a,*, Huseyin Ceylan b aPamukkale University, Department of City and Regional Planning, Kınıklı Campus, Denizli, 20070, Turkey bPamukkale University, Department of Civil Engineering, Kınıklı Campus, Denizli, 20070, Turkey

Abstract – Paper 165 Developing countries generate unplanned urbanization due to the unachieved industrialization process. It is unlikely to overcome unplanned urbanization without effectively taken sociopolitical and economical decisions. Location choice analyses are not conducted in a versatile manner since lack of legal rules. In the decision generation process of residential areas; decisions of commercial areas and transportation axes have generally been ignored based on several socio-political reasons. Unplanned urbanization is a public issue since decision-making periods of location choice and determining process of areal densities are conducted without quantitative spatial/technical analyses. Those urban matters bring along new planning paradigms like smart growth and new urbanism. Smart growth is a land use planning paradigm which indicates that traffic problems should be removed by transit alternatives, effective demand management and providing the balance between land use and transportation. This study aims to insert recent transportation planning paradigms to land use planning parameters which test the accuracy of land use decisions in perspective of transportation. In this manner, a main urban road intersection which takes place in an urban axe of Denizli/Turkey is determined as field of study. The usage level of mentioned intersection is determined by traffic intersection inventories. Afterwards, the potential effects of generated land use proposals to intersection are determined by VISUM transportation planning software. Capacity usage ratios of intersection entrances and exits, assigned traffic volumes and their outcomes are tested by VISSIM traffic simulation software. Considering the obtained results, several principle paradigms in the axis of smart growth are generated and land use rehabilitation decisions, which will be instructive for urban planning, are taken. Results showed that the land use and traffic impact analyses should simultaneously be conducted before land use configuration process. Keywords: Land use, traffic impact analyze, vissim.


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Growing from incipient to large cycle networks in hilly consolidated urban areas: the case of Lisbon Filipe Mouraa*, Joana Magalhães da Silvaa, Luis Picado Santosa a

Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, CESUR, DeCIVIL, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, Lisbon 1049-001, Portugal.

Abstract – Paper 167 The commitment in promoting bicycle use is currently of high priority in many countries. In fact, the need of effectively implementing a sustainable mobility approach is recorded in a wealth of national and international strategic documents. Many arguments sustaining active modes of transport arise from ameliorating urban life through the quality of urban space and social dynamics, to the reduction of pollutant emissions and improvement of public health. Hence, biking should be one option for our daily trip including utilitarian trips and not only in leisure. Accordingly, designing cycle networks that meet citizens’ requirements for daily trips is critical. Particularly, it should take into account criteria such as connectivity, redundancy, and attractiveness. Furthermore, it must consider also the current limitations of existing roads, namely in terms of width or gradient, in order not to hinder excessively existing road traffic while fitting in a suitable cycle network. These objectives become more challenging when aiming to enlarge an incipient cycle network and make it grow to a large and ubiquitous one, in hilly and consolidated urban areas. The present research aims to develop a methodology for the design of cycling networks in urban areas with such characteristics. We use the case of Lisbon, where there is a 78 km long cycle network. We begin by presenting the existing road and cycling networks. We identify the hierarchical organization of the road network where we fit in cycle lanes according to several and functional and safety criteria. These criteria relate particularly to motorized vehicles’ speed and to lane widths for both motorized vehicles and bikes. The issues of parking lanes are also considered. We conclude that it is possible to fit in large cycle network based on the existing road network. This network may consist of cycle lanes introduced in the current carriageways by rearranging the space and narrowing the existing lanes. The range of roads considered consists of 2nd and 3rd level in the road network hierarchy. Also, 4th and 5th levels roads are implicitly considered in the network due to their low speed conditions that favor coexistence of modes. The networks obtained are assessed in terms of connectivity, redundancy, path sinuosity and impedance from the perspective of bikers. The level of satisfaction of desire lines and the complementarity with current cycle network is also analyzed. Costs of implementing this type of networks are estimated. Keywords: Active modes; Cycling; Cycle network; Network planning and design; Network Assessment Indicators; Commuting trips; Lisbon


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Vehicle specific behaviour in macroscopic traffic modelling through stochastic advection invariant Simeon Calvert a,b, *, Henk Taale a, Maaike Snelder ab, Serge Hoogendoorn a a

Delft University of Technology, Dept. Transport & Planning, Postbus 5048, 2600GA Delft, The Netherlands b TNO, Postbus 49, 2600AA, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 169 In this contribution a new model to include stochastic inter-vehicle behaviour and interaction in traffic flow modelling is presented: the First Order Model with Stochastic Advection (FOMSA). In macroscopic traffic modelling each individual vehicle is often considered to adhere to identical or similar behaviour. This is especially the case in deterministic modelling. Although this has a number of advantages and often seems to produce acceptable results, interaction between vehicles is not considered and is generally ignored. However, observations of traffic flow show that considering differences between vehicles and their inherent behaviour is relevant, especially for constrained or critical traffic states. In this contribution we offer an effective modelling solution, which allows this behaviour to be captured. The method is based on the principle that each vehicle displays different driving behaviour and adheres to different acceptable driving parameters, such as desired speed, following distance etc. This principle is implemented in a first order macroscopic context, where other similar models make use of second order approaches. The vehicle specific behaviour is applied using a ‘vehicle specific invariant’ term. This term can represent the ‘aggressiveness’ of a vehicle or the combined behaviour of a platoon of vehicles. The invariant reflects how vehicle or platoon specific characteristics propagate with the vehicles and influence the local behaviour of a vehicle or platoon on a macroscopic level and in interaction with other surrounding vehicles. It represents a local, vehicle specific adjustment to the critical density and makes use of two parameters: a stochastic boundary parameter and a transition parameter. These parameters indicate the extent of differences between vehicles or platoons. This principle is modelled in a platoon-based Lagrangian coordinate system using a Kinematic Wave Model. The method considers micro-stochastic behaviour in traffic flow, which is seen in real-life, but is often omitted in deterministic models. This allows the stochastic effects of the onset of congestion and the behaviour found in and around congested road sections to be captured. We demonstrate that inclusion of this invariant term gives a more accurate representation of traffic flow, especially in constrained and congested traffic states. The base theory of the vehicle specific invariant is explained in the full paper and several cases are given in which various aspects of the concepts are analysed and demonstrated. These cases deal with the sensitivity of the described parameters and an estimate of ideal parameter values, and show the effects of considering the stochastic behaviour of different types of bottlenecks. Furthermore consideration of the application areas for such methods is discussed along with some recommendations on how the method can further be improved and refined. Keywords: stochastic; macroscopic modelling; advection invariant; traffic behaviour

* Presenting author E-mail address: [email protected] ; [email protected]

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Driving behaviour in case of authority transitions between Adaptive Cruise Control and manual driving Silvia F. Varottoa*, Haneen Faraha, Raymond G. Hoogendoorna, Bart van Arema, Serge P. Hoogendoorna a

Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft Univeristy of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 173 Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) is a driver assistance system supporting drivers in their longitudinal control through maintaining a desired speed and time headway. The system can lead to changes in the performance of the driving task with ultimately an impact on traffic flow efficiency, safety levels and levels of emissions. Field Operational Tests (FOTs) have suggested that drivers may prefer to switch ACC off and resume manual control in dense traffic conditions and before maneuvers such as lane changing. These so-called authority transitions can have a substantial effect on the longitudinal and lateral dynamics of vehicles and are consequently expected to have a considerable impact on traffic flow efficiency. To evaluate this impact, mathematical models of driving behavior of manually driven and ACC vehicles can be implemented in microscopic simulation software packages. However, most mathematical models describing car-following and lane changing behavior do not account for the possibility to engage and disengage the system. Thus, the effects predicted by these models could be not accurate and new models are required. The aim of this study is to make a first step in the development of driver behavior models that capture the drivers’ responses during and after authority transitions. Empirical data were analyzed to gain an in-depth insight into the conditions in which drivers switch ACC on and off and the behavioral adaptations related to these transitions. The distributions of speed, acceleration and time headway were investigated and different phases in driving behavior were clearly identified. The relationships between these different phases were further investigated using a relative speed-spacing plane. Manual drivers are characterized by certain limits in the perception of the stimuli to which they react (perceptual thresholds). In contrast to this, ACC responds to very small velocity differences in case of large and small distance headways as well and tends to reduce the relative speed between ego and leader to zero. Authority transitions can correspond to an action of the follower who wants to increase or decrease the acceleration. In addition, drivers might significantly differ in their responses based on their personal characteristics. Therefore, the inclusion of driver characteristics can contribute to explain heterogeneity between drivers. This analysis indicates that authority transitions may significantly influence the longitudinal and lateral dynamics of vehicles and represent the basis for formulating a driver behavior model which is suitable to understand the implications of these transitions on traffic flow efficiency. Keywords: authority transitions; Adaptive Cruise Control; driving behavior; driver characteristics.


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What about train length and energy efficiency of freight trains in rescheduling models? Ambra Toletti a, Valerio De Martinis a*, Ulrich Weidmann a a

ETH Zurich, Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, Stefano Franscini Platz 5, Zurich 8093, Switzerland

Abstract – Paper 174 Rail freight is expected to play a major role in the European transport system. In most countries, freights share railway infrastructure with passenger services and, when disturbances (delays or disruptions) occur, passenger trains usually have higher regulatory priority in dispatching. In recent years, the interest of academia and industry towards optimized rescheduling processes has considerably increased and several strategies have been proposed. These strategies assume the aforementioned hierarchy and most of them propose solutions for delay minimisation without considering the specific operational requirements for lower priority users, such as freight trains. In fact, constraints and objectives for freight trains scheduling and rescheduling are usually different from the ones related to passenger trains. There is partly more flexibility in freight trains scheduling and rescheduling regarding routes and departure/arrival times but, due to the lower priority, there are also constraints due to the schedules of trains with higher priority. Thus, they are forced to stop unplanned more often than passenger trains. In this paper we focus on two features that are particularly critical for freight trains rescheduling: (1) energy efficiency and (2) train length. Energy consumption is an important cost factor to consider within scheduling and rescheduling processes. Indeed, energy consumption of rail freights should be minimized by choosing paths, schedules and speed profiles that improve regularity, avoiding unplanned stops and minimizing acceleration phases. Freight trains length is a factor that cannot be neglected. In freight trains, the number of wagons may vary from a single up to several dozens. For longer trains, train length causes the occupancy of several blocks at a time, it increases the clearing time when leaving a block section and prevents crossing and overtaking in some network regions. The first part of this work is an analysis of literature which highlights that, on the one hand, all scheduling and rescheduling models proposed so far consider the length of trains but, on the other hand, only few approaches include energy considerations in (re)scheduling processes. In the second part an extension to rescheduling of a scheduling model considering train length and energy efficiency is presented and tested on a numerical experiment. The computation times are promising and the results show consistent reductions of energy consumption paid with small increases of the cumulative delay if equal weights are assigned to delays and energy consumption. Keywords: Energy efficiency; freight train; rail operation; rescheduling; train length


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Short-term Strategies for Stochastic Inventory Routing in Bike Sharing Systems Jan Brinkmanna*, Marlin W. Ulmera, Dirk C. Mattfelda a

Decision Support Group, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Mühlenpfordstr. 23, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany

Abstract – 176 Bike sharing systems (BSS) provide individual and ecofriendly urban mobility and are implemented in a growing number of cities. In BSS, customers can rent and return bikes spontaneously at stations and at every time of the day. To allow a reliable usage, service providers have to enable a sufficient number of bikes and bike boxes at each station. Therefore, service providers use a set of vehicles to reposition bikes between the stations. The according routing can be derived solving a inventory routing problem (IRP). For planning, providers can draw on expected customer demands generally following specific daytime patterns. Nevertheless, a significant amount of rents and returns occur unpredictable and spontaneously forcing immediate adaptions of the routes. In this paper, we define the stochastic IRP for BSS and present a short-term repositioning strategy (STR). A STR defines priority stations that have to be rebalanced. In a real world case study, we compare STR to long-term approaches using given target fill-levels. STR outperforms the other approaches significantly leading to suitable service levels at every station. Keywords: inventory routing; vehicle routing; shared mobility; bike sharing


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Drivers’ compliance with real-time in-car route advice: a large-scale empirical evaluation perspective Isabel Wilmink a*, Tamara Djukic b, Eline Jonkers a, Maaike Snelder a a

b

TNO, P.O. Box 49, 2600 AA Delft, The Netherlands Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 177 It is generally acknowledged that real-time travel information, e.g. route advice, allows travellers to make informed travel decisions, which could improve network efficiency. The successful implementation of these systems needs an understanding of how drivers adjust their travel behaviour in response to the information. The effects of information provision and drivers’ compliance with received advice has been widely studied. Due to limited deployment of advanced travel information services, laboratory experiments have gained acceptance as an effective and practical approach to gain insights into the drivers’ decision making process. However, most laboratory experiments rely on e.g. simulators to display predetermined traffic conditions without considering real-time drivers’ behaviour and the dynamic nature of traffic. Thus, much can be learned from field trials that empirically evaluate drivers’ compliance. This is an objective of the Amsterdam Practical Trial, in which a large amount of empirical data is collected. In the in-car part of the trial, drivers can install smartphone apps that provide personal travel advice (departure time, parking location and route advice, offering several route alternatives with associated travel times). The ‘Amsterdam Onderweg’ consortium has developed apps for regular, everyday trips, and for trips to event locations, providing pre-trip and on-trip advice. Here, we focus on the on-trip part – real-time route advice. Thousands of participants have already downloaded the app, and it is expected that data from about a million trips will be available for evaluation. Trip data will be complemented with participant data, questionnaire data and traffic data from roadside sensors. This paper focuses on the challenges of evaluating drivers’ compliance behaviour using real-world data. Careful consideration is needed to decide when a deviation from the proposed route should be regarded as non-compliance – it is more useful to distinguish several gradations of non-compliance. For instance, a driver who makes a slight (perhaps unintended) detour not resulting in major changes in the route advice (updated when a deviation is detected), versus a driver who appears not to like the proposed route and uses a different main road than the one proposed by the app, thereby likely influencing network efficiency negatively. It is also useful to analyse compliance for different groups (age, gender, familiarity with the road network) and under different conditions (peak-hour, incident, event) to see how this influences compliance. Altogether, this would provide valuable insights for the design of travel information systems as an effective instrument for traffic management. Keywords: route advice; compliance; field trial


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Designing optimal routes for different classes of cyclo tourists Federico Malucellia, Maddalena Nonato*b, Alessandro Giovanninic a DEIB, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci 32, Milano 20133, Italy Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi di Ferrara, via G. Saragat 1, Ferrara 44122, Italy c Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Milano, via Saldini 50, Milano 20133, Italy

b

Abstract – Paper 180 This study concerns the optimal design of cyclo tourist itineraries considering several classes of users. It builds upon a recent work which first introduced the problem of designing the most attractive itinerary for cyclo tourists connecting a given origin to a given destination, subject to a budget and a time constraint. Starting from a network made of existing cyclo-trails, gravel paths, and unsurfaced field roads, local administrators face the problem of selecting a budget-compliant set of edges to be reconditioned and turned into paved bike trails. Indeed, investing in enhancing cyclo tourism infrastructures proved to be effective in fostering sustainable development but decision support tools are needed to support decision makers in optimizing scarce public resources. The key issue in this problem is the objective function, namely the route attractiveness. Each node and each edge of the network yields a reward each time it is traversed, related to the pleasure of cycling along it. Additional pleasure usually decreases when traversing the same edge or node one more time but it may still be positive. Therefore, the optimal route may contain cycles, which is a special feature of this problem. In previous studies attractiveness was computed on the basis of each point of interest located on the edges and at the nodes of the route, and the route maximizing total attractiveness was searched for. The focus was on the “generalist” cyclo tourist, interested in every feature. This study takes a more realistic view and proposes a model where different classes of cyclo tourist are considered individually, each one with its own preferences, i.e., the cultural oriented tourist, the sport fan, or the one fond of wild life and nature. This new perspective yields a new network design problem in the field of vehicle routing problems with profits, generalizing the Orienteering Problem, that we call the “multi-commodity orienteering problem with network design” (MOP-ND): it consists of designing a set of itineraries, one for each user class, sharing the same origin and the same destination and potentially any edge of the network, so that each itinerary satisfies a maximum duration constraint and the cost of the whole infrastructure is budget compliant. The objective is to maximize the sum on all user classes of the attractiveness of the itinerary selected for that class. In this paper we provide a mathematical model for MOP-ND, test it on realistic data, and compare with the generalist model. Keywords: Cyclo tourist network design; multicommodity orienteering problem; vehicle routing with variable profits


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One-way carsharing: comparing station based and free float systems through agent-based modeling Mafalda Mendes-Lopes a*, Luis Martinezb, Gonçalo Correiac and Henrique Cordeirod a

b

Instituto Superior Tecnido, Avenida Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal International Transport Forum (OECD), 2-4 Rue Louis David, 5th Floor, 75016 Paris, France c Department of Transport & Planning, Delft University of Technology d Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra

Abstract – Paper 184 Carsharing is an urban transport alternative that typically involves a fleet of vehicles which may be rented by its clients for short periods. Round-trip systems, where the car must be returned to its departure point, used to be more common, but over the last few years there has been a significant growth of one-way systems, where clients may drop-off the vehicle anywhere within the designated areas. These systems, while offering more freedom to their clients, present greater management challenges to their operators, due to vehicle stocks imbalance. The complex relation between supply and demand, allied to a lack of suitable data, makes it hard to manage them. The state of the art of shared systems research shows that there is a need for realistic modeling tools that allow testing different operational configurations, taking into consideration both demand and supply constraints. In this paper we developed an agent-based model that represents the daily functioning of a one-way carsharing system, operating in Lisbon. The simulation incorporates a stochastic demand model discretized in time and space and a detailed road network. It allows evaluating the system from both the users’ and the carsharing operator perspective, as well as analyzing its effects on the overall mobility of the city. The model’s adaptable architecture allows it to be applied to other case-study cities as well. The model is tested for the case study city of Lisbon and an experiment is run on comparing the effects of having a traditional system organized in stations (in which the cars are grouped in parking spaces managed by the operator) and free-float (in which cars may be parked anywhere as long as it is public, legal and within the service area). We analyze the impact that this decision can have on the economic viability of the private operator business and the accessibility changes introduced by adding carsharing as competing mode with the existing ones. Keywords: carsharing; one-way; agent-based model; station-based; free-float

* Presenting author E-mail address: presenter@filiation

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Aircraft Schedule Recovery Problem -- A Dynamic Modeling Framework for Daily Operations Hans-Wieger M. Vos a*, Bruno F. Santos a, Thomas Omondi a,b a

Delft University of Technology, Air Transport and Operations, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS b Kenya Airways, Airport North Road, Embakasi, P.O. Box: 19002 – 00501 Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract – Paper 186 In this paper we present an innovative dynamic modeling framework to the aircraft schedule recovery problem (ASRP). The ASRP can be defined as the problem of modifying the flight and aircraft schedules to compensate the presence of irregular operations that result in the temporary or permanent unavailability of aircraft. Previous works on this topic often make use of static disruption test scenarios, simulating a set of disrupted events in a single time evaluation. The modeling framework here presented, named Disruption Set Solver (DSS), is innovative because it tackles aircraft schedule disruptions in a dynamic way. This means that the DSS solves the disrupted aircraft schedule only with the information that is known at the time, involving at each moment the new disruption but also the incumbent solution, considering all disruptions previously solved. The goal of the optimization model used to solve the ASRP is to minimize costs, including operational, passengers’ delay and cancellation costs. The decision variables involve the cancellation of flights, the delay of flights and the swap of aircraft between flights. The validation of the framework is done applying it to a set of real disruptive days in the operation of a major African airline. The results suggest two conclusions: (1) that the traditional static approach can lead to unreliable solutions, neglecting practical challenge and underestimating the disruption costs; and (2) that the proposed dynamic DSS framework can solve real aircraft schedule disruption problems within a time-window suitable for real-time operations. Keywords: aircraft recovery; dynamic modeling; time-space networks


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Periodic Capacitated Vehicle Routing for Retail Distribution of Fuel Oils Pasquale Carotenuto a*, Stefano Giordani b, Simone Massari b, Fabrizio Vagaggini b a

National Research Council – Istituto per le Applicazioni del Calcolo "M. Picone", via dei Taurini 19, Roma 00185, Italy b University of Rome Tor Vergata – Dip. Ingegneria dell'Impresa, via del Politecnico 1, Roma 00133, Italy

Abstract – Paper 188 In this paper we propose a suitable optimization model representing final distribution of fuel oil from central depots to retailers and develop an algorithmic framework that successfully addresses this problem. The proposed approach, called Periodic Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Genetic Search (PCVRPGS), is a genetic algorithm designed to tackle the problem of defining service days and daily sub-routes in order to minimize the total distance travelled by tankers in the planning horizon, trying at the same time to fill their capacity to reduce the number of vehicle used, and consequently minimize also the overall final distribution costs. Another important determinant of fuel distribution is the capacity saturation of the tankers. Both those factors play an important role in establishing the “best” solution. The (PCVRPGS) is inspired on the genetic algorithm Hybrid Genetic Search with Adaptive Diversity Control (HGSADC) introduced by Vidal et al. (2012) which has achieved excellent results on Periodic VRP instances known in literature. However PCVRPGS adopts some techniques and features tailored for the particular problem of periodical petroleum distribution. Unlike HGSADC, the algorithm proposed in this paper is designed to deal with real instances derived from the European context that are profoundly different from the PVRP instances in the literature. First of all in fuel distribution instances the ratio between the maximum capacity of vehicles and the average order is very low, which means that feasible solutions are characterized by a large number of daily routes with few customers for each route. This leads to different considerations in terms of local search methods to hybridize the meta-heuristic algorithm. Moreover the PCVRPGS, working with variable quantities during the planning period, introduces a further degree of complexity to the problem and provides greater flexibility to the final decision maker. In addition, the PCVRPGS being used as a tactical instrument might allow routes which exceed the maximum capacity by a certain percentage in order to evaluate different scenarios and alternatives. The algorithm evolves from a population of feasible and infeasible solutions (individuals) which are kept in two separate subpopulations. The method selects two parents individuals from the entire population and combines them through crossover, creating a new solution (offspring) which is enhanced through local search procedures. As in the classic scheme of genetic algorithms, the reproductive cycle iterates from one generation to the next one creating new solutions and selecting the survivors, until the stopping criteria is met. Keywords: Vehicle routing; Genetic algorithm: Fuel oils distribution; Freight transport; Transportation planning


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Mesoscopic traffic state estimation based on a variational formulation of the LWR model in Lagrangian-space coordinates and Kalman filter Yufei Yuan a,*, Aurélien Duret b, Hans van Lint a a

Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628CN, Delft, The Netherlands b IFSTTAR, LICIT, F-69675, Bron Cedex, France

Abstract – Paper 189 This paper presents a novel model-based framework for traffic state estimation (TSE) and short-term state forecasting. Generally model-based TSE relies on two components: a model-based component and a data assimilation algorithm. The modelbased component consists of two parts: 1) a dynamic traffic flow model to predict the evolution of the state variables; and 2) a set of observation equations relating sensor observations to the system state. Thereafter, a data-assimilation technique is adopted to combine the model predictions with the sensor observations. The same traffic flow model can be formulated in three 2-dimensional coordinate systems regarding space, time and vehicle number. Most of TSE applications are based on the traditional Eulerian (space-time) formulation. Recent studies have shown that a first-order (LWR) traffic flow model can be formulated and solved more efficiently and accurately in Lagrangian (vehicle number–time) coordinates. And its related Lagrangian formulation of state estimation enables more accurate and efficient application of data assimilation methods, due to the solution to the mode-switching problem and less non-linearity. This paper proposes a new mesoscopic model-based traffic state estimation framework using the LWR model formulated in vehicle number – space (Lagrangian-space) coordinates. Specifically, a variational formulation of the LWR model is selected as the underlying process model. Compared to the traditional conservation law approach, this formulation entitles a simplified expression and more accurate numerical results in the prediction step of the data assimilation framework (exact solution to the continuous model when the fundamental diagram is bi-linear). Its corresponding observation models are also included to incorporate both spatial-fixed and moving observations. The process and observation models are linearly formulated, thus a linear Kalman filter can be used as the data assimilation technique. The current formulation can incorporate the numerical benefits and modelling flexibility of Lagrangian-time models. Simultaneously, this formulation allows state distinction on both link class and vehicle class. More importantly, this scheme is particularly convenient for state estimation, because in reality, the flow characteristics are mostly observed at fixed point (spatial fixed) or along vehicle trajectories (vehicle number fixed). These observations are located on cell boundaries of the mesoscopic grid, which makes any traffic state estimation method convenient with this approach. Moreover, travel time can be directly derived from system estimates, and no state transformation is required compared to other estimation approaches. The proposed method is validated using synthetic data generated by a microscopic traffic flow model. Here a Newell’s carfollowing model is deployed to generate trajectories, due to its consistency with the LWR model at a macroscopic scale. Future work is needed to include empirical dataset to test the performance of the method in reality, and to extend the formulation at a network level. Keywords: Traffic state estimation; variational formulation; LWR model; Lagrangian-space coordinates; Kalman filter


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Queue length estimation for ramp metering with loop detector and Floating Car Data Gerdien Klunder a,b*, Henk Taale a,b, Serge Hoogendoorn b a

b

TNO, Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628 XE Delft, Netherlands Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 192 In this paper we will explain the advantages of data fusion of floating car data and loop detector data, related to a case about queue length estimation for ramp metering: which possibilities does data fusion give to improve queue length estimation as input for ramp metering on an onramp to a motorway? How can this be used to prevent blocking-back at the urban network? And, which penetration rate and loop detector accuracy do we need for the desired performance of this traffic management measure? In order to determine this, a micro simulation study is performed and several queue length estimation algorithms have been implemented using a combination of loop detector and floating car data. The problem of finding out which accuracy of traffic data is needed for a certain traffic management application is very relevant, however, no standard approach or framework is available to do this. We have proposed a framework for this problem using utility theory and sensitivity analysis. We will describe and illustrate the workings of the approach by means of a case on queue length estimation for ramp metering. It will show how FCD penetration rate and measurement errors influence the accuracy of queue length estimation and how this in turn influences the TDI control and network performance. Consider a motorway on-ramp with an upstream intersection. The queue length on the on ramp and on the branches of the intersection is estimated and used to tune the ramp metering interval in order to avoid that congestion spills back to upstream intersections. The available rest capacity of the intersection is estimated from the queue length and used to buffer the traffic. However, queue length algorithms are very sensitive for errors in the measured flows, because they can sum up to large errors. A combination with another type of data will make the estimation of queue length much more robust. Therefore, several algorithms for queue length estimation using simulated loop detectors and floating car data have been implemented. The algorithms are tested in a simulation study for various traffic demands, penetration rates and measurement errors. Keywords: data fusion; floating car data; queue length estimation; ramp metering; traffic data quality


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Mathematical model for the study of relocation strategies in oneway carsharing systems Aurélien Carlier a*, Alix Munier Kordonb and Witold Klaudelc a

IRT – SystemX, 8, Avenue de la Vauve, Palaiseau, 78000, France b LIP6 Universit Paris 6, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France c Renault, France

Abstract – Paper 194 Carsharing is today considered as an ecological and innovative solution to improve urban mobility. The one-way version, where vehicles can be drop-off in any station, brings however some challenging open questions. The system has to be design as part of the global transportation one and vehicle relocation operations must be included to get the higher level of service. In this paper, we consider a one-way carsharing system where stations and their location are fixed. The optimization problem consists in maximizing the total number of satisfied demands for a limited number of vehicles and relocation operations. We propose a formal definition and a mathematical model using Integer Linear Programming (ILP). We show that the problem size is strongly related to the number of possible relocation operations and a polynomial subcase is exhibited. Numerical results highlight that vehicle relocations can be drastically reduced without deteriorating the quality of solutions. Our method can thus be easily used in system management to evaluate possible implementation of vehicle relocation strategies. Keywords: one-way carsharing; vehicle relocation strategies; transport optimization; mathematical modelling


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A comprehensive framework for measuring performance in a ThirdParty Logistics Provider Maria Leonor Dominguesa,*, Vasco Reisa and Rosário Macárioa a

Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1 - 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 195 According to the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, last-mile transport represents about 28% of total freight transport cost, which by itself amounts for approximately 50% of total logistics’ costs, as it is often referred in the literature. Hence, there is a significant necessity to improve efficiency in the last-mile stage and thus the urge of an adequate tracking of its performance. Today, Third-Party Logistics Providers (3PL) face a great pressure in order to meet its clients’ needs: customers demand a high level of time and place value for their deliveries, at lower prices, making the last mile activity not only a challenge whilst meeting the clients’ requirements but likewise in managing the profitability and the financial balance of the operation. In order to meet the logistics’ operation efficiency, several 3PL monitor their activity assisted by a variety of ex-post systems of performance indicators that assess the quality and efficiency of the logistic process. Whereas most of the times 3PL do not fully exploit the potentiality of those performance systems. The objective of this paper is to provide comprehensive and innovative performance measurement framework for a ThirdParty Logistics Provider, transferrable for other stakeholders. The framework is supported in a thorough revision of the existing literature regarding performance indicators systems, with particularly significance in the field of logistics and freight transport. The rich variety of logistics’ performance indicators arrays frequently focus on a specific domain or follow a typical framework which includes metrics for cost and asset management, customer service, productivity and quality. In order to meet the specifics of a 3PL, we believe that a more detailed framework would be beneficial. The framework we propose is organized in three levels: the activities dimension (e.g. transport, warehousing, and customer service), the decision level dimension (operational, tactical and strategic) and the different actors dimension (e.g. carriers, 3PL and consolidation centers). A case study of Urbanos, a Portuguese 3PL firm, was used to validate the proposed framework, where the performance measurement framework will be adopted to benchmark the outsourcing partners’ performances. Keywords: Performance Measurement Framework; Third-Party Logistics Providers (3PL); Outsourcing


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Strategic multimodal model with endogenous demand choices and induced supply responses Václav Plevkaa, , Chris M.J. Tampèrea * a

L-Mob, Leuven Mobility Research Center – CIB, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 300a, Leuven 3000, Belgium

Abstract – Paper 203 This paper presents a methodological framework for modeling multimodal mobility markets. The proposed refinements to the traditional models which are used in practice might help to better understand the formation of multimodal systems. The need to plausibly capture multimodal system sensitivities stem not only from a side of transport authorities which are typically trying to convince the population to make a transition towards more sustainable travel modes. There is also a growing market of private transport suppliers who want to understand conditions under which they may attract economically viable market shares. The proposed model examines the potential transport service transitions and the needed incentives to stimulate these transitions. We propose to endogenize the transport resource ownership decisions. As a consequence, the introduction of new modes or the improvement of service quality of existing modes, may trigger ownership decision changes, and herewith reinforce the adoption of new or improved modes. In addition to traditional socio-demographic influences, we therefore consider the impact of ownership on the joint utility over a set of trips considered representative for one’s mobility needs: the Perceived Activity Set (PAS). Furthermore, we endogenize certain supplier design decisions to account for the responses to changing opportunities on multimodal markets. In traditional transportation planning models, the supply of transportation is considered to be exogenous. As consequence, it is up to the users of model to recognize that a primary change in the supply may induce also other transport supply changes that are relevant when evaluating scenarios. For example, if the primary supplier introduces a new light rail connection in an urbanized region, other complementary transport service operators (e.g. bus service, car-sharing, bike-sharing) might adapt their service as they observe the new market opportunities. The proposed suggestions were transformed into a bi-level optimization problem. The upper level consists of the optimal supply service problem. The lower level covers the transport resource and mode choice equilibrium problem. Among others, the results suggest that the demand choices are insensitive to supply actions if a supplier’s strategy does not account for the perceived importance of travel activities. Additionally, it appears that neglecting the induced supply design cause flaws in the modal transition forecasts. Keywords: mobility; multimodal market; strategic decisions


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A methodology for assessing the feasibility of fleet compositions with dynamic demand Antonio Placidoa, Luca D’Aciernoa,* a

‘Federico II’ University of Naples, Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, via Claudio 21, Naples 80125, Italy

Abstract – Paper 205 In the last twenty years, European Union has promoted liberalisation and competition within the rail system under EC Directive 91/440 and the Railway Packages concerned, and all Member States now try to pursue the difficult task of considering both public (sustainability, accessibility, employment, etc.) and commercial interests (profit, return on investment, growth). In this context, it is necessary to carry out analyses about rail services so as to gain useful information for increasing efficiency, effectiveness and productivity. In many cases, great importance has been attached to Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) which do not usually consider customer needs. This paper aims to promote a Decision Support System (DSS) for assessing rail services taking both service quality and performance indexes into account. In particular, the procedure is based on a microscopic simulation model combined to an assignment tool for assigning dynamically passengers to services. Thus, demand peaks, temporary capacity variations, temporary over-saturation of supply elements, and formation and dispersion of queues can be considered providing a more precise analysis of rail services. An application on metro Line 1 in Naples (Italy) is presented in order to explain the workings of the model. Numerical results demonstrate that this approach is very useful for planning or managing rail systems in accordance with passenger satisfaction and operational efficiency. Keywords: microscopic simulation, travel demand assignment, rail service management, service quality, operational efficiency


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A multiple criteria approach for evaluation of tunnel safety in Iran; a case study of Ardabil province Nima Dadashzadeha*, Vahid Mirmohammadib, Jafar Azimib a

Transportation Division, Civil Engineering Faculty, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey b Road Safety Division, Road Maintenance & Transportation Organization, Ardabil, Iran

Abstract – Paper 206 Various factors have effect on the safety of road tunnels and some of them including tunnel lighting, existence of curve, pavement condition, drainage and insulating, traffic horizontal and verticals signs inside tunnel are selected, in this study, as most important parameters in developing tunnel safety. These factors are evaluated using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), as a multiple criteria decision support system. The AHP is a powerful and flexible decision making process to help administrators set priorities and make the best decision. In the AHP, a problem is structured as a hierarchy. Having constructed the hierarchy, the prioritization procedure begins to determine the relative importance of the elements in each level. Based on this analysis, the decision makers developed a new approach as a combination of the most closely competing of several factors which affected on the tunnel safety for accidents prevention and casualties in tunnels. Assessment of tunnels safety status associated with effective and major criteria in safety of tunnels, in terms of inspecting, are the other objectives of this research. Ardabil province road tunnels, as one of the most transportable roads of country, are evaluated regarding safety status and safety index which have been assigned for all tunnels in the road. According to collected information related to accidents happened in tunnels, there were meaningful relations between tunnels safety index and number of accidents in the tunnels of the given road. There were more accidents in the tunnels bearing least safety index which show requesting more attention for necessary methods and ways of tunnel safety for decreasing accidents. In this study, it is shown that tunnel lighting (%38), traffic horizontal and verticals signs totally (%26), existences of curve inside tunnel (%22), drainage and insulation (%8) and pavement condition inside of tunnel (%6) are effective on safety of road tunnels respectively. Keywords: Safety Assessment, Tunnel Safety, Multiple-Criteria Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP);


161


Developing passenger car equivalents for freeways by microsimulation Orazio Giuffrèa, Anna Granàa*, Raffaele Maurob, Ana Bastos Silvac, Sandro Chiapponea a

Department of Civil, Environmental, Aerospace, Materials Engineering Università degli Studi di Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, Italy b Department of Mechanical and Structural Engineering – Università degli Studi di Trento, Via Mesiano, 77 - 38123 Trento, Italy c CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, P-3004 516 Coimbra, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 207 In this paper the method of estimation of the passenger car equivalents for heavy vehicles on freeway is described. Technical literature still presents few studies related to the calculation of passenger car equivalents for heavy vehicles in Italian context due to time, resources and efforts to be faced for an estimation study based on data collected on field. Thus microsimulation is a useful tool for the estimation of the impact of heavy vehicles on the quality of traffic flow. Since variation in traffic quality had to be evaluated including different percentages of heavy vehicles in the traffic demand, Aimsun software has been used to isolate traffic conditions difficult to observe on field, to replicate them, and to quantify the fundamental variables of traffic flow, namely the speed, flow, density, for a test freeway segment. Starting from an overview of data collected on A22 Freeway, Italy, the calibration and validation problems of the traffic simulation model for the selected case study were described. Simulated data were then used to calculate the passenger car equivalents for heavy vehicles by comparing a fleet of passenger cars only with a mixed fleet, having different percentages of heavy vehicles. Despite the exploratory nature of this study, some implications can be drawn. The PCE values here estimated resulted sensitive, to some degree, to all variables examined: grade and length of grade, percentage of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, and traffic flow rate. Increasing the flow rate, the effect of heavy vehicles increased for upgrades and downgrades, as well as at level grades; moreover, increasing the flow rate, an increasing effect of heavy vehicles on segments having the same value of grade length occurred. Analogous considerations could be made for segments characterized by the same grade value, for which there was an increasing effect of heavy vehicles at an increasing flow rate. At last, decreasing the percentage of heavy vehicles, the effect of heavy vehicles on traffic operations slightly increased. More research is still needed to better understand and confirm these findings. Results, indeed, could be improved by using an automated procedure in the calibration process. Moreover, some typical vehicle distribution in real field should be collected and PCEs should be calculated for other types of heavy vehicles such as multi-trailer heavy vehicles and buses, as well varying the traffic scenarios. Only afterwards a validation study of the PCE values estimated for A22 Brenner Freeway could be done using data collected on the field. Keywords: microsimulation; freeways; passenger car equivalents; heavy vehicles; calibration, Aimsun


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Analysis of driving behavior with information for passing through signalized intersection by driving simulator Yukimasa Matsumoto a,*, Guanlu Peng a a

Meijo University, 1-501, Shiogamaguchi, Tenpaku-ku, Nagoya-city 468-8502, Japan

Abstract – Paper 211 For preventing global warming, a lot of countries have addressed measures to reduce an amount of CO2 emissions. In particular, unnecessary vehicle movements such as rapid acceleration/deceleration or long idling at a signalized intersection increase the amount of CO2 emissions from a vehicle. In this study, a method to provide the information based on the vehicle running condition and traffic signal status is therefore developed for passing through the signalized intersection ahead. The developed method provides an indication to release an accelerator pedal and recommended speed information. If a driver follows such information, the driver can pass through the signalized intersection ahead or shorten the idling time at the intersection, so that the amount of CO2 emissions can also be reduced. The developed method is then introduced onto a 3D driving simulator, UC-Win/Road for evaluating the effects of the information provision on reducing the amount of CO2 emissions. Driving experiments with 32 participants under some scenarios of the information provision were conducted by using the 3D driving simulator. In these experiments, the recommended speeds appeared at 250m, 300m or 350m from the intersection ahead and the accelerator-off indication was provided to a driver based on the vehicle running condition. Every participant drove on the experimental course 4 times randomly. As a result, participants decelerated slowly at a certain distance from the intersection ahead by the information provision. Providing any information to a participant had a significant effect on reducing unnecessary vehicle movements. It was also found that the most effective information to reduce the amount of CO 2 emissions was the accelerator-off indication, by which the maximum reduction of the average amount of CO2 emissions attained to 6 %. It indicates that providing the information is effective for reducing CO2 emissions from vehicles approaching a signalized intersection. For future works, it is necessary that more experiments are conducted with various participants, because the effects of the information provision vary from person to person. In addition, it is expected to develop a method for reducing stress of a driver to follow the information and to investigate the effect when some vehicles run on the same road simultaneously. Keywords: Recommended speed; Accelerator off; CO2 emission; Signalized intersection; Driving simulator;


163


Mesoscopic multiclass traffic flow models: multilane modelling and application to diverge Aurélien Duret a,* , Guillaume Costeseque b, a

IFSTTAR Lyon-Bron, 25, avenue François Mitterrand, Case 24, Cité des mobilités, F-69675 Bron Cedex, France b Inria Sophia-Antipolis Méditerranée, 2004 route des Lucioles, F-06902 Valbonne Cedex, France.

Abstract – Paper 212 Macroscopic traffic flow modelling is the key element for practical Active Traffic Management on real road networks. Developed since the mid fifties through hyperbolic conservation laws mainly, it has generated a new interest during the last decade, thanks to the so-called ‘three representations of traffic flow’, based on Hamilton-Jacobi Partial Differential Equations (HJ PDE). In addition to the classical Eulerian time-space (t, x) and Lagrangian time-vehicle label (t, n) frameworks, the third one (x, n) has been very recently considered as an equivalent formulation of the widely used scalar LWR model. Nevertheless, this third system of coordinates, referred to as the Lagrangian-space framework, has not gained as much attention as it may deserve in view of its operational convenience. For instance, this framework is suitable to deal both with fixed spatial discontinuities (e.g. diverges) and with moving discontinuities (e.g. moving bottleneck). In this talk, we describe the generic class of second order macroscopic traffic flow models, known as the GSOM family, into the (x, n) framework. Second order macroscopic modelling allows us to consider some driver-specific attributes and to deal with multiclass modelling. Note that the attributes can also depend on the lane when accounting for multilane sections. However, these models are built upon hyperbolic systems and they are generally more difficult to solve than first order models for instance. The mesoscopic expression of GSOM model (m-GSOM), both in conservation laws or HJ form, allow us to simplify the resolution of the system since, within this particular choice of coordinates, the driver attribute is attached to any vehicle label n. In this talk, we focus on diverge modelling with multiclass second order traffic flow models. We start by properly defining the concepts of demand and supply functions for m-GSOM model. These specific functions are essential for determining the behaviour of traffic flows at fixed and/or moving discontinuities. Then, thanks to a finite difference scheme for the m-GSOM HJ PDE, we are able to compute vehicular travel times on simple sections. We extend the method to a diverge in two steps: firstly, we ensure the treatment of multilane sections with multiclass traffic and moving bottlenecks. Secondly, we include the diverge behaviour with possible upstream queue propagation. A unique parameter is then introduced to relax the FIFO assumption and allow overtaking manoeuvres upstream multilane diverge. Numerical simulations are provided, along with a discussion about the benefits of this approach. Keywords: Mesoscopic ; Hamilton-Jacobi ; multiclass modeling ; diverge ; moving bottleneck.


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Attitudes towards congestion charging: results from a stated preference survey in Rome Paolo Delle Sitea*, Valerio Gattab, Edoardo Marcuccib a

DICEA Departmentof Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Sapienza Rome University, Rome 00184, Italy b Political Science Department, Roma Tre University, Rome 00145, Italy

Abstract – Paper 215 Congestion charging in road transport has long been advocated by economists. This policy is able to provide benefits as long as car traffic is reduced. However, implementation may find opposition on the side of car users. Congestion charging has been introduced in London, Stockholm and Milan. Plans exist to introduce it in other cities. The paper reports on the results of a stated preference survey among car users in Rome. The aim is twofold: (i) to assess travel behavior responses to the introduction of a congestion charge in the inner area, and (ii) to identify the accompanying measures able to win car users’ opposition. Provisions for implementing a congestion charge from January 2017 in the so-called Anello Ferroviario, the Railway Ring, are part of the new PGTU - Piano Generale del Traffico Urbano, the Master Plan of Urban Traffic, which has been proposed by the municipality government and is expected to be adopted in 2015. In the first part of the survey a policy including the following is considered: bans on vehicles of certain emission classes based on the Euro standards, flat charge on a daily basis, measures able to improve travel time on buses and trams. The experimental design creates scenarios in terms of charge level and percentage reduction of travel time on buses and trams. Interviewees are asked to choose between using the car, using public transport, using other modes. Those owning a car that is not permitted have the option of purchasing a new car. This part of the survey is used to estimate logit models able to provide the size of the shift to public transport of those who currently enter the inner area by car. The second part of the survey aims to identify the accompanying measures that are able to change the judgment about the acceptability of the policy on the side of car users. These include a plafond of free daily permits, differentiation of the charge by emission class, exemption for shared use, improvements of public transport and other modes. Keywords: urban transport; congestion charging; stated preference; behavioural responses; policy acceptability


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A framework for solving Real-Time Multi-Objective VRP Oren E. Nahuma*, Yuval Hadasa a

Department of Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, Israel

Abstract – Paper 216 One of the most important logistics problems in the field of transportation and distribution is the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP). In general, VRP is concerned with the determination of a minimum-cost set of routes for distribution and pickup of goods for a fleet of vehicles, while satisfying given constraints. Today, most VRPs are set up with a single objective function, minimizing costs, ignoring the fact that most problems encountered in logistics are multi-objective in nature (maximizing customers’ satisfaction and so on), and that for both deterministic and stochastic VRPs, the solution is based on a pre-determined set of routes. Technological advancements make it possible to operate vehicles using the real-time information. The paper presents a mixed integer linear programming mathematical formulation of multi-objective vehicle routing problem, which should be solved in real-time. Since VRP is a NP-Hard problem, it cannot be solved to optimality using conventional methods, therefore, the paper presents a heuristic framework for solving the problem. In real-time and dynamic problems, a solution is given based on known data, as time progresses, new data is added to the problem, and the initial solution has to be re-evaluated in order to suit the new data. This is usually done at pre-defined time intervals. If the time intervals are small enough, thus, at each time an interval, the amount of information added is limited. Therefore, the new solution will be similar to the previous one. Evolutionary algorithms are well suitable for solving this kind of problems, since the previous solution can be considered as an initial solution for the updated problem, while there is no need to start the calculation of the new routes from the beginning. Whenever a driver is about to depart a customer, the current solution is re-evaluated, based on new data. Since the result of the algorithm is a set of non-dominated solutions, as in the case of multi-objective optimization problems, a multi-decision method (MCDM - powerful tools used for evaluating/ranking problems containing multiple criteria) (such as the Max-Min, Min-Max, Compromise Programming or TOPSIS method), is used for automatically choosing the preferred alternative. The suggested framework is a combination of closely integrated evolutionary and MCDM algorithms. The framework was implemented using three evolutionary algorithms. The three algorithms were compared using a case study, based on two real-world transportation networks (urban and interurban). The case study was performed using simulation. Keywords: Vehicle routing problems; Multi-Objective; Multi-Criteria Decision Making; Real-Time;


167


Estimation of missing flow at junctions using control plan and floating car data Xiao Xiaoab , Yusen Chenab*, Yufei Yuana a

Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628CN Delft, Netherlands b TNO, van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628XE Delft, Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 217 Traffic flow detection is crucial for accurate traffic state estimation and efficient traffic management in urban areas and on motorways. However, due to system or device failure, traffic flow obtained from urban traffic control system shows frequently irregularity. Meanwhile, signal control scheme at junctions is influenced by traffic flow and traffic status significantly. Therefore, missing data estimation and flow consistency verification at junctions or on road section is necessary. This paper proposes a new and consistent approach for estimating missing data and verifying flow consistency of junctions by analysing data from SCATS control system (both flow and timing plan) and GPS. SCATS system provides flow data and timing plan at 5-minute interval, while GPS data gives information of FCD (Floating Car Data) with speed and position for each vehicle at 30-second interval. Two objectives are defined in this paper: 1) Improve utilization of traffic flow data, via mining and fusion, to provide accurate and reliable source for traffic research and application; 2) Evaluate the synchronization of traffic flow and signal control to optimize current traffic control at junctions. The paper devises three consistent methods to estimate missing flow at junctions. Firstly, at junction lane level, current and historical flow data of the lane is used to make initial estimation. Flow values and its proportion to the nearby lanes are normalized to further complement on this single lane flow estimation. Secondly, timing plan is applied to identify similar control group (same turning lanes) with their relative phase time proportions. Proportions and flow rate from observed lanes on the same control group are normalized to make estimation for missing data lanes. Thirdly, speed and flow samples from FCD trajectories are related to fully observed flow and thus their relationship is established. Typically Junction flow and FCD speed relationship is established from junction streams with complete data. This is then applied to other streams (without complete observation) in similar control group. Results from these three aspects are iterated for mutual verification and consistency. This methodology is applied to Changsha municipality in China. Initial results indicate that suggested methods give promising indication that all missing lane flow could be recovered using three mutually calibrated methods. Further research is ongoing to investigate specific data fusion mechanism or interchangeable data source for traffic state estimation and its quality. Research will consider adjacent junctions with a given area to understand how data and flow relationship works at network level. Keywords: Control system; Timing plan; FCD; Missing flow estimation; Data fusion.


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Extended BIP Models for the Multistage Classification in Marshalling Yards Ivan Beloševića*, Sanjin Milinkovića, Miloš Ivića, Norbert Pavlovića, Milana Kosijera a

Univiersity of Belgrade - Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Vojvode Stepe 305, Belgrade 11000, Serbia

Abstract – Paper 218 The most of the unproductive time freight wagons spent in the marshalling yards. The planning of the technology and capacity in marshalling yards helps improving the performance indicators in the rail freight transport. Great number of problems arises in the area of capacity of yards and working technology planning, representing main railways optimization problems, in the same time. Multistage classification is stated as one of the complex marshalling problems thus belonging to the class of railway optimization problems. Marshalling, as one unique process for railways, gives the possibility of adjusting it to economy needs. Unfortunately, marshalling has its disadvantages: demands additional sidings and increases wagon layover which results in increase of transport costs and service quality reduction. First part of this paper presents the state of the art of multistage methods. We emphasize mathematical models used for optimization of sorting schedules and pay special attention to models based on binary encoding. In addition to the review of existing models that were used for optimizing marshalling yards operation we develop mathematical models intended to tactical phase of managing yards and strategic phase of planning sidings layout. In previous research on freight wagons classification, authors have not paid enough attention to simultaneously consider operating conditions and conditions of marshalling yard design. The objective of extended models is to minimize total system costs while satisfying designing and operating constraints. For these models we consider two types of costs. First group of costs covers all construction and maintenance costs. These infrastructure costs are directly in function of total track length, number of tracks and the design of track connecting. On the other side, operation costs present total shunting costs influenced by number of locomotive’s pull out operation and number of wagon movements. As for this problem is proven that belongs to the NP hard problems, in this paper we present an efficient usage of the local search heuristics to contribute in planning yards for the case of large scale problems. We have evaluated algorithms using randomly generated instances and have compared them to exact BIP approach. Experimental results prove that local search heuristics convergent to optimal solutions thus in the case of large scale instances provide high quality solutions. In addition to typical analysis of value of the objective function, results are presented in the form of adequate indicators of sorting schedule quality and infrastructure requirements which are more suitable for decision making in railway operations. Keywords: multistage classification; railway operation; optimization; local search

* Presenting author E-mail address: [email protected].

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An Application of Autonomous Vehicles to Road Pavement Test Li Zhenhuaa, Li Bina*, Kang Leb, Wang Lin, Song Xianghui a

b

Research Institute of highway, No. 8 Xitucheng Road, Beijing 100088, China. Automotive Engineering Research Institute,BAIC MOTOR,No.99 Huanghe Street,Beijing 100084,China

Abstract – Paper 219 Autonomous vehicles are developing rapidly. Field tests have been conducted in several countries to demonstrate the technological feasibility of autonomous vehicles. Although technological and legal issues still have to be resolved before the large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles, they have already been put into use in some certain professional fields. An autonomous truck system has been developed in a full-scale accelerated pavement testing system. The pavement testing system is designed for studies on road design, construction and maintenance methods. The system consists of a test track, autonomous trucks and a monitoring system. The test track is a 2.2km long circuit with more than 20 sections built with different pavement materials. To carry out the repetitive loading tests of pavement specimens, a fleet of seven semi-trailer combinations travel more than 400 laps everyday on the track, which means 20 laps per hour and 20 hours per day. Long term repetitive tests may lead to distraction or fatigue of human drivers, which is extremely dangerous. Road pavement tests require path deviation of less than 5cm, which is also difficult for human drives to achieve. Autonomous vehicles can provide more reliable and accurate loading work than human-drive vehicles. The autonomous vehicle system consists of a sensing system, a driving control system and a guarantee system. The sensing system detects position and velocity information of the vehicle and surrounding obstacles based on radar, camera and GNSS. The driving control system processes the information from the sensing system and control the vehicle to maneuver safely on the test track. The guarantee system is developed to provide backup guidance information based on magnetic guidance technology. The guarantee system also monitors the status of the vehicle and the whole fleet according to communication networks, such as CAN bus and V2X network. Vehicles communicate with each other through Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication and with the monitoring centre through Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communication. A double system of wireless communication is used along the track, with bands of 2.4GHz and 5.8GHz respectively. Each vehicle is equipped with a wireless access point and communicates by switching among roadside antennae according to the position of the vehicle. Keywords: Autonomous truck; Full-scale accelerated pavement test; Magnetic guidance; V2X communication;


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A MIP Model to Optimize Real Time Maintenance and Relocation Operations in One-way Carsharing Systems Gonçalo Santosa*, Gonçalo Correiab a

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Polo II, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal Transport and Planning Department, TU Delft, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands

b

Abstract – Paper 224 The daily management of a one way carsharing system is focused on relocation and maintenance operations. On one hand, the freedom of allowing users to return vehicles at any station leads to vehicle imbalance problems and on the other hand, a system where the same vehicle is used by different persons, has the need for daily maintenance operations. Demand is a key element that influences both relocation and maintenance needs, and the system has to be prepared to adapt and react to it in an optimized way. This paper describes a tool developed to manage relocation and maintenance operations of a one-way carsharing system in real time. It consists of an optimization model working in parallel with a background database of the service operation. The optimization model developed is a mixed integer linear programing model, instant-based and designed to work in cycles, being run periodically during the day. The optimization cycles allow the updating of the system status data, which allows a closer connection to the system reality. The model considers that crew elements use mainly the vehicles of the system to move inside the operational area, and orders are remotely transmitted through a wireless communication platform to mobile devices. Three types of activities are attributed to crew elements: waiting, maintaining the vehicles and moving. The mathematical model discriminates each crew element and is able to decide the best schedule for each one. It has flexibility to select between crew trip joining or crew trip splitting, in order to reduce movement cost or relocate a higher number of vehicles. The database works in the background, constantly updating the necessary information to feed the optimization cycles. It receives the information from the system and the crew schedule data that resulted from optimization. A simulation environment was used for testing purposes, although this optimization tool is prepared to work in an existent carsharing system. Keywords: carsharing; maintenance; relocation; optimization.


172


The short-term car flow planning model in rail freight company – case study Paweł Hanczara*, Piotr Peternekb Department of Logistics, Wroclaw University of Economics, 52-345 Wroclaw, Poland Department of Operations Research, Wroclaw University of Economics, 52-345 Wroclaw, Poland a

b

Abstract – Paper 225 With the promotion of the environmentally friendly transportation modes (the European Commission supports the freight transport operations in the rail sector), an increase in the diversification of the demand is observed. While most rail freight companies tend to apply fixed schedules, this approach is not effective turns out to be ineffective due to the need to meet the customer’s specific requirements. The purpose of this paper is to present a case study of empty wagon flow planning over a medium term horizon and to discuss the opportunities of improvement of this plans by discrete optimization. In order to increase the utilization and availability of wagons, the planning procedure with a rolling horizon has to be implemented. Unfortunately, since the plan has to be updated ca. every 4 hours, this planning approach needs effective optimization tools. Our hybrid two-stage approach is designed to be implemented in such business environment. This formulation allows us to solve real life instances even for a 7-day time horizon. Keywords: railway, car flow optimization, rail freight


173


Cooperative Traffic Control Management for City Logistic Routing Felix Köstera*, Marlin W. Ulmera, Dirk C. Mattfelda a

Technical University of Braunschweig, Mühlenpfordtstrasse 23 38106 Braunschweig, Germany

Abstract – Paper 226 In city logistics, courier express and parcel services (CEP) deal with last mile deliveries in an urban environment. CEP route vehicles delivering parcels to costumers distributed in the cities area. Customers expect fast and reliable services to reasonable prices. As a result, CEP have to plan and execute their routing efficiently. In a city logistic environment, CEP faces several challenges. Especially, travel times between customers are not deterministic but uncertain and differ during the day regarding traffic volumes and stochastic events like congestion. Further, cities traffic management (TM) controls traffic flows in city areas. TM decisions additionally impact travel times for CEP. This paper shows the impact of TM decisions to travel times and emphasizes the benefit of cooperational planning between CEP and TM. Keywords: City Logistic; Traffic Management; Vehicle Routing; Dynamic Vehicle Routing; Stochastic Travel Times; Time Dependent Travel Times


174


Maximizing operational readiness in military aviation by optimizing flight and maintenance planning M. Verhoeffa,*, W.J.C. Verhagenb, R. Curranb a

Royal Netherlands Air Force, Kooiweg 40, 4631 SZ Hoogerheide, The Netherlands b Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 229 The primary objective in military aviation is to maximize continuous operational readiness: the capability to perform assigned flight missions. In terms of a flight planning process, operational readiness has three primary components: availability, serviceability and sustainability. Operational readiness is influenced by the time spent by aircraft in maintenance. In practice, aircraft flight scheduling (including maintenance constraints) tends to be managed manually and on a day-to-day basis, leading to a reactive approach to aircraft flight hour allocation in which problems with respect to availability, serviceability and sustainability can easily develop. Optimization models have been developed to address this issue, but none of them cover the full scope of operational readiness. This work introduces a flight and maintenance planning optimization model that can simultaneously address the aspects of availability, serviceability and sustainability, leading to a pro-active, efficient and more robust scheduling effort. The proposed model is tested, verified and validated using Royal Netherlands Air Force data and infrastructure related to the CH47D Chinook helicopter fleet. Keywords: Flight and Maintenance Planning; Operational Readiness; Optimization


175


Management of the access charges level for the use of railway infrastructure by bee colony optimization Mirjana Bugarinovića*, Tatjana Davidovićb, Branislav Boškovića a

Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Vojvode Stepe 305, Belgrade 11000, Serbia Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Knez Mihajlova 35, Belgrade 11000, Serbia

b

Abstract – Paper 232 Management of the access charges level for the use of railway infrastructure and corresponding subsidies should enable the development of railway market, i.e., increase the competition on it. However, the basic characteristics of the existing railway market actors (infrastructure managers, incumbents and other railway companies) of all European and most of the non-European countries are inefficiency and negative balance of the business. In these circumstances it is needed to find the access charges level and distribution of subsidies that would lead to the smallest overall loss in the system, allowing the "survival" of all actors on the railway transport market. In almost all EU countries the incumbents still have a dominant position on the railway market (over 70% of the transport market share). In other words, we search for the access charges level and distribution of subsidies that would balance financial statements losses of the current key players, providing a railway system that will be competitive on the transport market. In conditions of economic and budgetary crisis for most EU countries, and especially for small states, the main question is the survival of rail systems that are highly dependent from the budget subsidies. Therefore, our main goal is to balance the financial statement loses of all actors by a proper distribution of both the access charges level and subsidies. Although a problem is very important, the mathematical formulation or a satisfactory solution cannot be easily found. From the mathematical point of view, the considered problem can be treated as an optimization problem. In this paper this problem is addressed by the meta-heuristics approach. Meta-heuristics are general computational methods designed to deal with hard optimization problems. They iteratively generate and/or improve solutions by applying some predefined stochastic rules. According to the previous experience, we decided to apply the Bee Colony Optimization (BCO) method, a population based meta-heuristic inspired by the foraging habits of honeybees. The basic idea behind BCO is to build the multi agent system (colony of artificial bees) that will search for good solutions of various optimization problems. The method was tested on a real life problem (described by actual data) for the Railways of Montenegro. Our results show that an appropriate distribution of the access charges level and corresponding subsidies, which meets the interests of all actors in the railway market within the given circumstances, enables the railway to survive in conditions of states budget deficits. Keywords: railway system; balance of business financials; budget subsidies; optimization; meta-heuristics;


176


Performance assessment of turbo-roundabouts in corridors Ana Bastosa*, Pedro Marianob, João Pedro Silvac a

CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, P-3004 516 Coimbra, Portugal b Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, P-3004 516 Coimbra, Portugal c CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, Polytecnic Institut of Leiria, Leiria, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 234 The concept of turbo-roundabout has recently emerged in the Netherlands by a researcher of the University of Delft, named Lambertus Fortujin, as an alternative solution to conventional roundabouts with multiple lanes, in order to solve the safety problems associated with weaving movements on negotiation and crossing zones of conventional roundabouts. The main characteristic of turbo-roundabouts is the introduction of physical raised splitters to define spiral lanes that ensure vehicle channelling continuously from the entrance to the desired exit. There is a widespread consensus in the scientific community that the transformation of a conventional multi-lane roundabout into a turbo-roundabout results in a significant increase of road safety levels. However this point of view is no longer consensual regarding its effect in terms of capacity, as there are some authors that demonstrate the existence of a small reduction in capacity, namely in the minor roads entries. The concept of turbo-roundabout is quite recent and therefore there are only a few studies of its performance, in particular, when applied in a network or in a corridor. In this context, this paper focuses on the evaluation of the performance of the turbo-roundabout solution, when applied in corridor, compared to a normal double-lane roundabout. The analysis was based on two key components: capacity and pollutant emissions. The work was supported by microsimulation techniques using the software AIMSUN, based on a real case study calibrated and validated for this purpose. The calibration and validation work was supported by a campaign to collect traffic data, travel times, and by controlling the queues length. A wide group of demand scenarios was studied, integrating demand levels above and below saturation, as well as different directional splits of the entry traffic. It was possible to conclude that the turbo-roundabout performance is strongly influenced by the traffic load affected to the network, losing its performance sharply oversaturation conditions. The turbo-roundabout tends to improve its overall performance whenever the proportion of right-turns increases, which also depends on the adopted layout. Generally, it was also possible to conclude that the environmental indicators results are correlated with the capacity results. Keywords: turbo-roundabout; microsimulation; Aimsun; performance evaluation


177


Simulation of Offshore Supply Operations Gustavo Cunha de Bittencourta*, Edilson Fernandes de Arrudaa a

Production Engineering Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract – Paper 237 Imbetiba Port is located in Macaé - Brazil, and it’s the biggest port operated by Petrobras in this country. It has three piers, with two berths each, and supplies approximately 90 production units. Campos Basin offshore units, which are mostly provided by this port, produced about 1.8 million barrels per day of oil in 2014, representing 86% of the national amount. This concentration of production in marine units should further increase with the progress of exploration in the pre-salt fields, creating the growing necessity to ensure efficiency and reliability in operations. The present work aims to build a discrete events simulation model of Campos Basin offshore operations, subsidizing fleet sizing decisions. It also has the goal to help validate berth allocation and vessels routing optimization models, as well as to preview the effects of constructing another berth. The orders and supplies are represented as entities, and the vessels are the resources needed to load, unload and to deliver them to the production units. The simulation starts with an order arrival at the port. It arrives at the scheduled time given by the berth allocation optimization model, and describes the route to be served, the compatible berths and the random demand of the offshore units. The port transforms the order into a supply entity and forwards it to the first available compatible berth; or just to the assigned berth, depending on the scenario being simulated. In the sequence, an available boat with enough capacity to receive the load is called, loaded and forwarded to the first unit of the route, which is given by the vessels routing optimization model. Each offshore unit has a time window that can be hard or soft, depending again on the scenario being simulated. The travel and service times are influenced by the season. Finishing the course, the boat releases the supply entity and goes to anchoring. Promodel was the chosen software to build the model. Despite its flexibility, it's impossible to create manually each location, resource and arrival, due to the problems' size and the number of scenarios. Fortunately, the software offers an ActiveX controllers library called ProActiveX, which allow us to build the model through VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) commands. Each aspect of the model was implemented inside Microsoft Excel, using the object oriented programming paradigm. Keywords: Discrete Event Simulation; Offshore Logistics; Supply Chain Management; Supply Vessels; Port and Berths Simulation.


178


Evaluation of intermediate stop operations in long-haul flights Sander Hartjesa*, Frank Bosa a

Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 1, 2629HS, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 238 Recent crises – both economic and geopolitical – and the rise of new competitors in the form of low-cost carriers and Middle East carriers have put a heavy strain on the profitability of traditional legacy airlines worldwide. Many airlines are struggling to survive and are looking for ways to cut their operational costs. Continuously increasing fuel prices further contribute to the financial difficulties, and although airlines (and aircraft manufacturers alike) have put a significant effort on reducing the operational fuel consumption, fuel still accounts for approximately 35% of an airline’s operating expenses. Therefore many airlines seek new ways to further reduce the operational costs through improved fuel efficiency. One of the less self-evident methods to potentially significantly reduce the total operational fuel consumption is the introduction of intermediate refueling stops. Previous studies have already shown that operating existing aircraft on a long-haul flight with one or two intermediate stops can lead to potential fuel savings varying from 5% to 25% by reducing the additional fuel burn on long-haul flights referred to as transport loss. On the other hand, the concept of intermediate stop operations may also affect the operational costs through higher landing fees, an increased required maintenance effort, a longer total flight time and different crew costs. As previous studies have not addressed the additional costs or benefits of intermediate stop operations, this study aims to identify the total potential of the concept. For this purpose, a software tool was developed to analyze for individual origin-destination pairs the optimal operation – either direct or including an intermediate stop – for long-haul flights. Within the tool crew cost, maintenance cost and local fuel prices are determined for simulated flights according to typical operating procedures. A Dijkstra’s algorithm then selects the most suitable and cost-efficient airport from a large database if an intermediate stop proves a viable option for the city-pair. A number of case studies has shown that although in all cases intermediate stops proved beneficial to reduce the total fuel burn, reducing the total operating cost depended highly on city-pair specific conditions, mainly the local fuel prices, changed crew-composition and wind direction. Still, the case studies do indicate that the concept of intermediate stop operations may offer significant cost reductions for many typical long-haul flights across the world, and could prove a viable concept to gain a competitive advantage for specific airlines and routes. Keywords: airline operations; intermediate stop operations; fuel efficiency


179


A Robust Framework For The Estimation Of Dynamic OD Trip Matrices For Reliable Traffic Management Jaume Barceló* and Lídia Montero Barcelona Tech – UPC, Campus Nord, Carrer Jordi Girona 1– 3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain

Abstract – Paper 241 Origin-Destination (OD) trip matrices describe the patterns of traffic behavior across the network and play a key role as primary data input to many traffic models. OD matrices are a critical requirement, either in static or dynamic models for traffic assignment. However, OD matrices are not yet directly observable; thus, the current practice consists of adjusting an initial or a priori matrix from link flow counts, speeds, travel times and other aggregate demand data. This information is provided by an existing layout of traffic counting stations, as the traditional loop detectors. The availability of new traffic measurements provided by Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) applications offers the possibility to formulate and develop more efficient algorithms, especially suited for the real-time applications supporting the real-time decision making in Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS). However, the efficiently strongly depends, among other factors, on the quality of the seed matrix. This paper proposes an integrated computational framework in which an off-line procedure generates the time-sliced OD matrices, which are the input to an on-line estimator. The paper also analyzes the sensitivity of the on-line estimator with respect to the available traffic measurements. To achieve this objective it has been developed a revised version of a Kalman Filter approach, to estimate dynamic OD including also travel time measurements between pairs of ICT sensors suitably deployed in the network. The revised version accepts a flexible configuration of the deployment to account for changes in the detection layout due to various reasons. Keywords: Dynamic OD Matrices; Matrix Estimation; Kalman Filtering; ICT data.

*

Presenting Author E-mail address: [email protected]

180


Discharge Headway Model for Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions Sanjay Radhakrishnana*, Gitakrishnan Ramaduraib a

MS Scholar, Dept of Civil Engineering IIT Madras, Chennai 600036, India Assistant Professor, Dept of Civil Engineering, IIT Madras, Chennai 600036, India

b

Abstract – Paper 242 Discharge headway is the headway between successive vehicles negotiating an intersection during the green time of signal operation. It is an important parameter in signal operations and analysis since estimation of parameters like saturation flow and capacity of an intersection depend on it. Although there have been several studies on discharge headway in homogeneous traffic conditions, there are only a few studies on discharge headways in heterogeneous traffic. This study examines the factors affecting discharge headway under heterogeneous traffic conditions which is characterized by mixed vehicle composition and lack of lane discipline. A novel method to measure headways in such cases is proposed here. To get individual vehicle headways, each lane is divided into multiple strips. The width of a strip is approximately equal to the width occupied by a motorcycle. The headways of vehicles in each strip are measured separately and used for analysis. Data collection for the study was carried out at signalised intersections in Chennai, India. Data was collected for one approach at all intersections. From the data collected, headways of individual vehicles were measured. Linear mixed effect regression was used to model discharge headway. The effect of vehicle type, lateral position on roadway, and green time on discharge headway were modeled. From the regression analysis, it was found that all these factors had significant impact on discharge headway. The discharge headway model proposed in this study could be used for obtaining “saturation” flow rates and capacity at signalised intersections under heterogeneous traffic conditions. Keywords: Discharge Headway; Heterogeneous; Signalised intersection; Regression


181


Understanding Travel Mode Choice to Special Events Miguel Figueiredoa*, Ana Bastos Silvaa, Gonçalo Correiaab a

b

CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, P-3004 516 Coimbra, Portugal Delft University of Technology, Department of Transport & Planning; Postbus 5, 2600 AA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 245 Special Events are mainly where a large number of people are brought together to watch or participate in a show, fair or gathering. Although these events represent only a small percentage of total traffic congestion in our cities, they have the potential to be responsible for very high and costly disruptions because they can cause unexpected delays which neither travellers nor authorities are able to accurately predict, resulting also in a high rise of emissions, with significant consequences to the environment. Transportation planning has traditionally ignored such events focusing on average traffic impacts of land-use developments. Trip generation indicators are used for estimating trip ends for several types of venues, mainly large scale venues such as stadiums or conference centres. But it is impossible to predict event-specific impacts of those uses. Having an adolescent idol playing at a concert hall is not the same as having an orchestra: the number, age and behaviour of the attendees changes radically. Moreover, underestimation of traffic impacts of these events has other harder and deeper sources. It is increasingly difficult to predict the happening and dimension of an event as venues are multiple in size and location and events are planned with little time in advance. Understanding what are the types of audiences for different type of events, and what are their mobility-related behaviour and mode choice can help us predict these happenings and their impacts. Also, in the future, it can help to adjust the supply of public transport more efficiently, in order to meet the demand. In this context, a set of stated preference surveys were performed in 16 events in the two major venues for shows, the “MEO Arena” and “Coliseu dos Recreios”, in the city of Lisbon (Portugal), with more than 1500 respondents. Information’s about travel mode(s), arrival times and duration of travel, cost of travel, origin type and location, social-economic indicators, among others were collected. At the same time, digital footprint information of the attendees, e.g., website and social media, were collected. These web-based data is analysed and compared with the one from traditional surveys. Techniques, such as topic models, were developed to find “relevant” words that help correlate the web information with the type of attendees, and their travel behaviour, for each type of event. With this, it were developed a series of special events models (SEMs), regarding application of discrete models such as Multinomial Logit Model. Keywords: Planned Special Events; Mode Choice; Survey Data; Web-Based Data

*

Presenting author E-mail address: [email protected]

182


Network strategies for airlines in competitive environment Danica Babića*, Milica Kalića a

University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Serbia

Abstract – Paper 247 Deregulation of air transport industry significantly changed the market conditions all over the world and permanently affected airline competition. Sustainability of airline business model was questioned once the airline market was opened and the competition began to strengthen. Only those airlines that were able to react promptly and adjust to the emerging conditions had a chance to sustain profitably and retain their market position. In the years following the deregulation, two main network structures became dominant, viz; hub-and-spoke among full service airlines, and point-to-point among low cost carriers. An airline’s network is the key element of its business strategy and selected network structure will not only influence the airline’s costs but could gain some advantage in revenues, too. Network designing implies that an airline has to make decisions about markets it will serve, how to serve those markets, what the consequences of rerouting the flows through the hub are, etc. Making these decisions means finding right balance between serving different market segments and meeting economic interests of an airline. Of course, the impact of the competition should not be neglected, too. With regard to network choice, in order to capture strategic interactions between airlines in a deregulated market, the model for optimization of airline networks is formulated using sequential games (Stackelber model), unlike common interactions based on simultaneous game (Bertrand and Cournot model) that can be found in the literature. The Stackelberg leadership model is used to describe the situation when there is one airline which acts as the leader on the market and is the first to make decisions on prices and quantities while the other airline is following the leader’s decisions. The model is developed for the situation when there is a duopoly on the market and competing airlines may choose either point-to-point or hub-and-spoke network structure. The aim of this paper is to find appropriate choice of airline network structure that would enable a sustainable business model in the open market. This paper uses an “idealized” model which allows developing of analytical expressions for prices and quantities that maximize an airline’s profit arising from its network choice. The proposed model could be useful for an airline operating in a deregulated market as support in evaluating the strategic options. The model results may provide some guidelines and indicators to the airline with regard to under which circumstances a selected network structure is better than the other. Keywords: Network design, airline competition, profit maximization.


183


Airport Ramsey Pricing: Application in Taiwan Chia-Yi Shih*a, and Jin-Ru Yena a

Dept. of Shipping and Transportation Management, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan

Abstract – Paper 250 Pricing methods for airports landing fees are usually adopted by the maximum takeoff weight which made by ICAO and IATA in the past; however, these pricing standards have few theoretical basis. There are various airport pricing methods to charge landing fees in academic theories, such as average cost pricing, marginal-cost pricing, Ramsey pricing, etc. As the airport is uncongested, Ramsey pricing is suitable for charging the landing fees. This paper develops the structure of Ramsey-type pricing to be applied at uncongested airports or in off-peak periods at any airports when applicable. Although demand elasticity is essential to Ramsey pricing, it is difficult to directly calculate this elasticity of airline demand in landing. The econometric model will be used to find the demand elasticity from different passenger groups and then put in the Ramsey pricing model in order to replace the demand elasticity of airline’s landings. Finally, the Ramsey pricing model is applied in this paper to estimate the landing fees of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (TPE) and Taipei Song Shan Airport (TSA), both located in Taipei metropolis of Taiwan. The Ramsey pricing model developed in this paper can also be applied to other airports around the world. Keywords: Landing Fee; Ramsey Pricing; Airport Pricing


184


Airport Marginal-Cost Pricing: Application to Airports in Taiwan Chia-Ping Tsou a* and Jin-Ru Yen a a

Dept. of Shipping and Transportation Management, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan

Abstract – Paper 251 In Asia the air traffic volume’s rapid growing last decade, some airports have become more congested. For congested airports, marginal-cost pricing is more suitable for them to charge landing fees because it considers not only the internal delay cost but also the external delay cost. However, most congested airports still charge landing fees based on aircraft weight, which might cause inefficiency on ground works. This paper finds delay costs in congested airport for the top three most common commercial aircraft categories in order to survey the total operating costs for each category. Then we can calculate marginal cost by average total operating costs for each aircraft category. Econometric approach is applied to estimate marginal costs and the aim is developing a simpler formulation to apply in airport pricing. This research explores how marginal-cost pricing helps congested airports gain more revenue and efficiency. Consequently, the marginal cost pricing model is applied in this paper to estimate the landings fees of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (TPE) and Taipei Song Shan Airport (TSA), both located in the Taipei metropolis of Taiwan. Furthermore, the marginal-cost pricing mechanism developed in this research can be applied to other airports. Keywords: Landing Fee; Marginal-Cost Pricing; Airport Pricing.


185


A new approach to understand modal and pedestrians route in Portugal Ana Paula Barros*a, Luis Miguel Martínezb, José Manuel Viegasb a

Superior Technical Institute, Lisbon, Portugal International Transport Forum, Paris, France

b

Abstract – Paper 252 The present paper aims at examining which factors interfere on the choices people make of modes of transport or path (when walking), take into account four variables groups: geometrics, syntactic, land use and transportation accessibility. For that purpose, an online questionnaire was applied to formulate a Discrete Choice Model in two parts: mode choice and path choice for walking trips. The findings showed that factors such as safety, comfort and urban form contribute significantly to the choice of path. For the choice of car as transport choice, the most determining factors were: weather (rain, strong sun, cloudy) and periods of the day (night), both of which are examples of factors that are not controllable; and economic elements (the presence of paid parking lot) and the displacement time (total displacement time and time of access to the car).For the choice of bicycle, the main factors were the presence of cycle lanes and bicycle parking. Based on these findings, it was possible to conclude that the car is the transport mode with greater natural preference, followed by walking and finally bicycle. Keywords: Mode choice; walk path choice; walking and biking.

*

Corresponding author. Tel.: +55-6183016116; E-mail address: [email protected]

186


Expanding Route Generation Algorithm for Transit Network Design Using a Heuristic Method Iran Khanzad a, Seyedehsan Seyedabrishami a,*, Amir Ali Zarinmehr a and Amir Reza Mamdoohi a a

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modarres University, Iran

Abstract – Paper 256 Public transportation network design is one of the most complex problems in transportation planning. A better design of transit network will increase transit share of urban trips and reduce traffic congestion in road network. Some previous research usually use route generation algorithm (RGA) in which select the shortest path for high demand origin-destination pair, then expand the shortest path with new node insertion in the shortest path to increase coverage of transit demand. This paper expands previous RGA to consider some new restrictions for node insertion to make transit network more efficient and provide better design to be implemented in urban network. The proposed algorithm, called expanded route generation algorithm (ERGA) inserts nodes that are adjacent, one-link distance to the shortest path, to the shortest path between the nearest pair of origin-destination rather than conventional RGA in which node have been inserted between all pairs of origin-destination. Moreover, the algorithm restricted distance between each pair of nodes, not to be greater than 1.5 times of the shortest path length between the two nodes. ERGA coded in MATLAB software and applied for a numerical example and Sioux Falls test network. Sensitivity analysis used to measure the influence of new restrictions on transit network design. The results show that ERGA reduces number of transit lines by 70 percent for 30 percent direct demand coverage compare to RGA. Furthermore, ERGA reduces the total overlapping length between different transit routes to one-third in transit network compare to previous RGA for the same demand coverage. Keywords: network design, route generation, node insertion, transit network Keywords: Pricing, Transit Improvement, Stated Preference, Nested Logit

*


187


Differences in Network Reliability Improvement by Several Importance Indices Takahiro Nagae a, Hiroshi Wakabayashi b

*

a

Graduate School of Urban Science, Meijo University, Nijigaoka 4-3-3, Kani, Gifu 509-0261, Japan b Faculty of Urban Science, Meijo University, Nijigaoka 4-3-3, Kani, Gifu 509-0261, Japan

Abstract – Paper 257 Because natural disasters frequently occur in Japan, constructing and sustaining a highly reliable highway network for national resilience is an urgent necessity. However, it is difficult to improve all the links due to budget constraints. Therefore, it is important to select a quantitative index to conduct an importance analysis—identifying key links to improve network reliability. After this, network reliability can be efficiently improved and sustained. Importance analysis has two major areas of concern—the development of a new index, and reduction of calculation work and memory size requirements. Therefore, this paper aims to verify the relevance of an index proposed by the authors and develop an efficient method for approximate calculations. To determine the most important key links, the indices of reliability importance (RI) and criticality importance (CI) have been previously proposed. However, for a parallel network, use of the RI and CI results in only the more reliable links being improved, and the less reliable links will remain unimproved. Consequently, areas along the less reliable links are ignored. Therefore, we propose a new index CIW as an advanced criticality importance. Initially in this paper, RI and CIW are compared for variable sets of link reliability to test the relevance of CIW. Then, we propose a reduced calculation method to calculate the indices with the partial path sets in the network. In this study, we compared two calculation results of the choice method using the distance of the path sets and the occurrence probability of path sets in the network. We analysed a network with nine nodes and twelve links with RI and CIW. Subsequently, RI provided better terminal reliability improvement than CIW, and CIW provided smaller dispersion among link reliability than RI. Moreover, CIW was costeffective. Thus, CIW is better than RI in general. Next, the selection of the path set was calculated using occurrence probability and distance, and the approximate value of terminal reliability was clarified in the network. Consequently, it was recognized that using two choice methods made little difference, even if we reduced number of path sets to around seven of them between all twelve path sets. Therefore, we might be able to use the occurrence probability as well as the method that uses the distance as a path choice method. Keywords: Highway network reliability, Importance index, Probability Importance, Partial minimal path set, Cost-benefit analysis

*


188


Simulation Model for Estimation of the Energy Consumption of an Electric Bus Line Diego Alejandro Giméneza *, Anabela Salgueiro Narciso Ribeiroa a

CITTA, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Coimbra,Coimbra, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 261 The implementation of battery electric buses for urban transportation is being in consideration by many cities as a clean and sustainable alternative to the current combustion buses. The main drawbacks of this technology is the current high cost of batteries, uncertainties about performance, and the required charging scheme. Most bus manufacturers designed some battery electric buses models that differs significantly in specifications and searched for urban areas to test these models operation. An experience with mini electric Gulliver buses took place in 25 cities in Portugal in 2001. From that experience, some trials become current lines of transportation. However, some other trials did not succeed to continue, mainly because the bus specs where not suitable to accomplish the path requirements. This work presents a tool for energy consumption estimation based on microsimulation. The data from the mini Gulliver buses is used to calibrate the model. This model makes focus on accelerations, braking (consumption and recovery), elevations and charging scheme. Open data sources are used to collect most of the path characteristics making possible to easily replicate the model in different locations. This tool will not just allows to estimate if a determined bus model would be able to operate in a determined path, but also to compare different bus models, battery sizes and charging schemes. The final output would be the less expensive fully electric system that can be successfully applied to a determined path. Keywords: Battery electric buses; Energy consumption estimation; Urban bus simulation


189


New Traffic Light Control Strategy based on Probe Vehicle Data Robbin Blokpoela,*, Jaap Vreeswijka, Guus Sluijsmansa a

Imtech Traffic & Infra, The Netherlands,

Abstract – Paper 267 Dynamic traffic light control requires traffic detection to function. Without detectors, only fixed time control is possible. Since traditional sensors like inductive loop detectors have significant installation and maintenance costs, alternative detection techniques may be an interesting alternative. Moreover, loop detectors provide point data based on vehicles passing or occupying the loops, but the prediction of the vehicle dynamics is limited due to the fixed locations of the detectors. Cooperative vehicleinfrastructure technology can monitor an intersection approach continuously and thus provide extensive information of approaching vehicles as they frequently transmit a Cooperative Awareness Message (CAM) containing all required relevant information. The most important information for a traffic light controller is the queue length for each signal group. Therefore, this paper proposes two algorithms that improve the queue measurement. The first uses GPS data only, but has the advantage of having no accumulating errors over time as integration of point measurements for traditional detection has. The second also uses information of the traffic light status and determines the queue length at the start of green by using a model of the wave speed of accelerating vehicles. These algorithms were compared with traditional queue estimation algorithms and resulted in an improvement in the average queue estimation error from 5.6 vehicles to 2.6 for the the GPS-only algorithm and 1.7 for the wave speed algorithm. These algorithms were subsequently applied to traffic control by using the improved queue estimations for better planning of when to cut off green phases. This resulted in a 31% reduction in delay time and a 60% reduction in stops. Using the accurate positioning information from vehicles to determine the intergreen times more accurately resulted in an additional reduction of only the average delay time. Overall the proposed algorithms show a great potential benefit of using cooperative data for traffic control, especially considering that no expensive equipment is required to acquire data from CAM messages. Keywords: Traffic control; traffic detection; cooperative ITS


190


Simulating the Port Wet Infrastructure: Review and Assessment Xavier Bellsolà Olba a *, Winnie Daamen a, Tiedo Vellinga b, Serge P. Hoogendoorn a a

Department of Transport & Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft 2628CN, The Netherlands b Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft 2628CN, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 268 Ports, play a more important role in the freight transportation chain since the continuous growth of maritime transportation due to containerization. Traditionally, a lot of research has been carried out focused on terminal operations and optimization of its processes. Recently, due to the high vessel flows in ports and implicit higher densities, the relevance of the non-terminal related operations becomes more and more representative for a good system (port) performance. This leads to a considerable increase in studies and analysis linked to the wet infrastructure performance in ports, in other words, research focusing on vessel traffic and navigational aspects, as indicators of system capacity. Since the analytical description and formulation of system processes and operations are complex, a few simulation models have been developed in the recent decades, but none of them has been assessed based on their ability to represent real vessel traffic in ports. The aim of each of these models is different, as well as their scopes, that is why their classification and assessment is needed. In this paper, we identify the main navigational processes and operations related to the port wet infrastructure and review and assess the current port simulation models. The survey of models presented represents an exhaustive overview of the current state of the art of port simulation models. Their assessment focuses mainly on which processes and operations are covered by each model, both wet infrastructure and navigational behaviour, and it also considers where models are complementary and how accurately they are able to represent real navigation. A set of elements is defined and divided in two parts for the assessment: wet infrastructure representation and navigational behaviour. This review shows that the influence of infrastructure design or vessel encounter on vessel navigation behaviour and free path choice have not been implemented in port simulations. Future port simulation models should cover these relevant elements, among others also explained, for a more realistic traffic performance. Keywords: Simulation model; vessel traffic; port simulation; wet infrastructure;


191


Conventional, cooperative and automated: a framework for the assessment of the intermediate period until future mobility Evangelos Mitsakisa, Jaap Vreeswijkb*, Josep Maria Salanova Graua, Evangelos Mintsisa and Robbin Blokpoelb a

Centre for Research and Technology Hellas – Hellenic Institute of Transport, 6th km Charilaou Thermis rd., 57001, Thessaloniki, Greece b

Imtech Traffic & Infra, Basicweg 16, 3817VE Amersfoort, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 269 Information and Communication Technologies fundamentally transform vehicle operations, transport and traffic management. Deployment of cooperative and connected vehicle-infrastructure technology (C-ITS) and increased attention to automation, though mostly at the research level, demonstrate a paradigm shift in mobility. However, large scale and full deployment may take decades. Additionally, how the transition path to a cooperative, connected and automated world looks like is uncertain. Inevitably, conventional, C-ITS and automation equipped vehicles and roadside equipment will co-exist for some time. This paper aims to assess the impact of different levels of market penetration of C-ITS and automated vehicles for this intermediate period, where types of vehicles with different capabilities will need to co-exist. A methodological framework is proposed for assessing the implications of the various market penetration levels of technologies into today’s (conventional) vehicle fleets and infrastructures, with a focus on the urban road environments. The framework provides guiding principles and tools for analyzing the impact of various compositions of the vehicle fleet (mix of conventional, cooperative and automated vehicles) both at microscopic as well as at macroscopic level. These will provide researchers, policy makers and traffic engineers with an improved understanding of the effects on the mobility ecosystem and the impacts on traffic performance and the environment. Special attention is devoted to the role of traffic management based on a belief that some level of guidance will remain needed. While intelligent vehicles work as intelligent sensors and provide new types of information, automated vehicles will more readily accept guidance from area-wide optimization. Consequently, better compliance allows for new vehicleinfrastructure dynamics leading to improved performance, but also posing new challenges for stability and reliability. Moreover, conflicts and trade-offs, for example user equilibrium versus system optimum and adaptive systems versus requirements of predictability to name a few, will be highlighted, and integrated in the design of possible transition paths to full C-ITS and autonomous fleets in urban environments. Finally, results from a case study where the proposed methodological framework is applied to, are presented, proving its applicability, robustness and effectiveness. Keywords: Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems; Autonomous vehicles; Traffic Management; Transition Path


192


Influence of Lane and Vehicle Subclass on Free-flow Speeds for Urban Roads in Heterogeneous Traffic Srijith Balakrishnana,*, R. Sivanandana a

Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai- 600036, India

Abstract – Paper 272 Free-flow speed (FFS) is defined as the speed drivers choose under very low traffic flow conditions when impedance due to adjacent vehicles is negligible. Estimation of FFS is important in several applications. FFS varies extensively across various road facilities as they are influenced by driver behaviour, vehicle characteristics, road factors, landuse, geometric features, control factors, etc. The estimation of FFS in homogeneous traffic is comparatively simpler as the speed variation across vehicles is limited. However, in heterogeneous traffic conditions existing in countries such as India, the FFS distribution varies across vehicle classes. The studies conducted by the authors explored the FFS distribution of various vehicle classes such as two-wheelers, three-wheelers, cars, buses, etc. However, detailed analysis revealed that the variation in FFS can be better explained by further classification of vehicles into subclasses. The study also found that the lane choice is a factor affecting FFS. The study was conducted on four- and six-lane divided roads in Chennai, India. A total of 24 study sections were chosen for data collection. Speed data were collected during early morning hours to ensure free-flow conditions. The vehicle movements were recorded using video cameras. The details regarding site factors such as carriageway width, link length, landuse, presence of kerb and type of area were collected manually. The speed and lane data were extracted and tabulated from the video recordings. The authors studied the speeds of about 17,800 vehicles (36% two-wheelers, 8% three-wheelers, 8% buses, 33% cars, 10% light commercial vehicles and 5% trucks). The vehicles were classified into 14 subclasses and speeds were analysed. The study also evaluated the effect of lane position on FFS of different classes of vehicles. It was found that vehicles on kerb lanes experienced lower speeds than those on inner lanes. Furthermore, FFS models for four- and six-lane divided roads were developed using multiple linear regression. Significant difference in speeds was observed within and across subclasses of vehicles. The models also evaluated the effects of various road factors such as carriageway width, link length, adjacent landuse type and presence of kerb on FFS. Models such as these can find applications in planning and operational analysis of urban road facilities. Keywords: Free-flow speeds; urban roads, heterogeneous traffic


193


Single wagonload production schemes improvements using GüterSim (agent-based simulation tool) Albert Manceraa *, Dirk Bruckmanb, Ulrich Weidmanna a

Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH Zürich, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland Hochschule Rhein-Waal, University of Applied Sciences, Faculty Communication and Environment, Friedrich-Heinrich-Allee 25, 47475 KampLintfort, Germany

b

Abstract – Paper 276 Single Wagonload (SWL) is still a major component of the Swiss freight transportation system. To hold the market share of the SWL system a reduction of production costs and an increasing quality is needed. To evaluate alternative production schemes and the effects of technological innovations a simulation tool is necessary. Since there are no suitable tools available which cover all needs for a SWL simulation, the IVT developed a new agent-based tool called GüterSim on the basis of the existing software MATSim. GüterSim models the routing of the freight wagons, as agents, according to the routes in the real SWL network and the production schemes. It is a scalable model with two network levels and an integrated approach. This paper presents the following achievements: Modeling existing timetables and routing of freight trains; opportunity for improvements of train routings and schedules to optimize the existing productions scheme; integrating the capacity restrictions of the infrastructure to check the realizability of the improvements; automatic timetable generation on the existing network; and automatic generation of new production systems. A case study is presented to prove model’s application. The work is based on real data from the SWL Swiss network which includes infrastructure data, schedules, rolling stock and locomotive data. Therefore the conclusions are based on real freight demand within the Swiss freight network. GüterSim is proved as a tool to improve SWL production schemes and scalable to other freight networks with fixed schedules. Keywords: agent-based, rail, freight, optimization, single-wagonload


194


A real-time information system for public transport in case of delays and service disruptions Maurizio Bruglieria, Francesco Bruschib, Alberto Colornia,c, Alessandro Luèa,c,*, Roberto Nocerinoc, Vincenzo Ranab a

Dipartimento di Design - Politecnico di Milano,Via G.Durando 38/A, 20158 Milano, Italy b Dipartimento DEIB - Politecnico di Milano, via Ponzio 34/5, 20133 Milano, Italy c Consorzio Poliedra - Politecnico di Milano, via G.Colombo 40, 20133 Milano, Italy

Abstract – Paper 277 Promoting the use of public transportation and Intelligent Transport Systems, as well as improving accessibility for all citizens, may help in decreasing traffic congestion and air pollution in urban areas. In general, poor information to customers is one of the major issues in public transportation services, which is the reason to allocate substantial efforts to implement a powerful information tool easy to use and access. MOTUS is a project – cofinanced by the Industria 2015 program of the Italian Ministry of Economic Development - whose objective is to improve management, sustainability and eco-compatibility of urban mobility by using the citizen as user and producer of mobility information. The project realized a service platform able to detect, aggregate and interpret urban mobility in real time by exploiting information on the transport network coming both from existing infrastructures on the territory and from mobile devices. This paper focuses on the city of Milano, where the system can be actually used for the display and management of unexpected events, delays and service disruptions concerning public transportation. Exploiting the information about the status of urban mobility and the location of citizens, commuters and tourists, the system could reschedule in real time their movements. The service proposed stems from the state of the art in the field of travel planners for public transportation, tailored to the city of Milano. Peculiarly, we built a representation of the city transit based on a time-expanded graph that considers the interconnections among all the ride stops offered during the day. The structure distinguishes the physical stations and the get on/get off stops of each ride, representing them with two different types of nodes. Such structure allows, with regard to the main focus of the project, to model a wide range of service disruptions, much more meaningful than those possible with approaches currently proposed by transit agencies. The interesting point lies in the expressive capability in the description of the different disruptions: with our model, it is possible, for instance to: selectively inhibit the getting on and/or off of a single ride, make pass of a ride through a given station; cancel specific rides; model temporary deviations. Keywords: advanced traveler information; public transport; travel planner; time-dependent minimum path


195


Bayesian networks for multimodal mode choice behavior modelling: a case study for the cross border workers of Luxembourg Tai-Yu Ma* Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), 3, avenue de la Fonte, L-4364 Esch-sur-Alzette, Grand–Duché de Luxembourg

Abstract – Paper 280 Reducing car use and promoting public transport in the cross border area of Luxembourg has become a priority for sustainable development of the Greater region. Face to increasing daily mobility demand, better understanding travelers’ mode choice behavior provides useful insight for the stakeholders. In this study, we aim at analyzing daily mobility mode choice behavior of these cross border workers, considering their multimodal mode choices (e.g. park and ride mode choice) and their trip chaining behavior. Although the cross-border worker mobility survey of Luxembourg has collected detailed daily travelactivity data with mode choice chains for each trip leg of 7235 individuals, their multimodal mode choice behavior is still less studied. By distinguishing various multimodal combinations as alternatives (instead of grouping them by a main mode with longest travel time), this study aims to model complex multimodal mode choice behavior in relationship with individuals’ sociodemographic, build environment, journey characteristics as well as special-temporal constraints of trip chaining decisions. As regards the methodology, a rule-based approach based on Bayesian networks will be proposed to capture the non-linear effects of related determinants/constraints on individuals’ mode choice behavior. Different with traditional utility-maximization framework for choice behavior modelling, the rule-based approach can determine discontinuous effects of independent variables on an individual’s choice outcome and respect individuals’ bounded-rational behavior. The condition-action rules for multimodal mode choice of the cross border workers of Luxembourg are derived, given their daily travel-activity chains and spatial-temporal constraints. The approach extends existing studies based on Bayesian networks to derive decision rules from empirical data both in causal structure identification and parameter learning for multimodal mode choice. The performance of the proposed rulebased model is compared with classical discrete choice models. The result shows the Bayesian network approach has a competitive performance compared with classical discrete choice models with reasonable good corrected prediction rates. Keywords: mode choice; Bayesian network; causal structure; Luxembourg


196


On the Short-Term Prediction of Traffic State: an Application on Urban Freeways in Rome L. Mannini a *, S. Carrese a, E. Cipriani a, U. Crisalli b a

Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via Vito Volterra 62, 00146 Rome, Italy Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy

b

Abstract – Paper 281 This paper explores the traffic state estimation on freeways in urban areas by proposing a procedure to forecast the route travel time combining point-based and route-based traffic data, both historical and real-time, provided by advanced monitoring systems. This procedure can be used to improve the accuracy of travel time prediction when real time point-based measurements, provided by loop detectors, are combined with both route-based data, produced by an automatic number plate recognition system (ANPR), and link-based data, represented by historical FCD data. The prediction model is based on a second order macroscopic traffic flow model recursively corrected by an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) properly fed by a measurement data fusion technique. In order to overcome the possible lack of real-time information, the use of simulation-based data obtained through a traffic assignment model is proposed. In order to investigate the effectiveness of the presented approach, an application example on a urban freeway stretch in Rome is shown. Even if the procedure is conceived to be applied on-line, the results are obtained by using an off-line approach. The test field is characterized by traffic measurements coming from loop detectors, floating car data and historical travel times, which are integrated with inflow and outflow data on ramps estimated through a traffic assignment model, when real-time data are not available. Results of the application point out the ability to predict the traffic state, especially in terms of route travel time, when realtime detected data are coherent and the input data, such as flows on ramps, are consistent. Finally, the RME and RMSE calculated comparing estimated link speeds values with those coming from loop sensors show values similar to those presented in the literature. Further developments of this research are underway. They mainly concern the on-line application, including the investigation of the problem of spatial and temporal alignment of data, as well as the use of different Kalman filters, such as Unscented, Ensemble, Switching, and others. Keywords: freeway; traffic state estimation; extended kalman filter; traffic flow model


197


Optimizing the service zone location of electric automated taxis in train trip connection Xiao Liang a*, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia a, Bart van Arem a a

Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft 2628CN, Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 283 In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to optimize the location of service zones of a one-way taxi system for the last mile connection of train trips. We divide the city into several zones each of which can be seen as a potential service zone. The service provided by this system includes taking passengers who have finished their train trips to the final destination (egress) or to the train station from the origin like home or work place (access). That means request trips between different service zones are not considered. The taxis in this system are electric, which means charging time should be taken into consideration as a constraint. At the same time, the taxis are automated, therefore the relocation without driver can be accomplished. We formulate the mathematical model as a mixed integer programming problem whose objective is to maximize the profits of the taxi company involving vehicle and station maintaining cost, vehicle depreciation cost, parking costs and charging facility costs. With the reservation requests being known a priori, the model can indicate the satisfied demand and the number and location of service zones that lead to a more profitable system. This model is applied to a case study of a train station in the Netherlands. The results from the case study demonstrate the impact of service zone location and different fleet size scenarios on the profitability of that system. Keywords: electric automated vehicles; carsharing; last mile; mix-integer programming


198


Performance Evaluation of Continuum Model’s Numerical Solutions in Short-term Traffic Predictions M. Sreekumara,*, Tom Mathewb a

Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Bombay, Mumbai – 400076, India b Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Bombay, Mumbai – 400076, India

Abstract – Paper 284 Owing to their simplicity in formulation and efficiency in computation, continuum models are frequently employed for online short-term predictions of traffic state. They consist of one or more partial differential equations (PDEs), and are solved using numerical methods. The formulation of PDEs depends on the physics of flow propagation, and has been a research focus in the field of traffic flow theory. Selection of suitable numerical scheme depends on the associated errors. Although such errors associated with state variables such as density for various numerical schemes are well known, their implications to the derived traffic parameters such as travel time are not understood well. Such understanding gives valuable insights in the selection of proper numerical schemes for reliable traffic application such as travel time prediction algorithms. Research on finer continuum models and numerical schemes of higher resolution may not contribute much to traffic flow modeling, unless they are enough sensitive to practically significant parameters. By comparing the performance of some popular numerical methods on some existing traffic continuum models, we attempt to quantify the implications, in scales that are practically relevant. For instance, the first order upwind scheme is used to solve Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) model and the resulting travel times are noted. Such an exercise can aid in the selection of suitable numerical method, which is the primary focus of this paper. The classical LWR model is considered as the governing equations of the system. The solutions from three state-of-the-art numerical schemes, first order upwind with entropy fix, second order Lax-Wendroff, and second order scheme with a flux limiter, are analyzed and a comparison has been made in terms of short-term travel time and queue length predictions. Two hypothetical scenarios of a freeway, with and without traffic signal representing the shock and expansion wave phenomena were studied and the results were compared. Among the three schemes, the one with the flux limiter which is a combination of first and second order schemes led to reasonably good predictions compared to the individual ones which resulted in diffusions and unrealistic oscillations respectively. The study emphasizes the need of comparing and analyzing the model solutions in terms of practically relevant scales, from different numerical methods before implementing it. In addition, a flux-limiter method is suggested which is conceptually simple and less erroneous compared to the basic first and second order schemes. Keywords: LWR model, upwind, Lax-Wendroff


199


Quantifying the effects of activity concentration at airports on public transport using an iterative reduction procedure Hermann Ortha* ,Ulrich Weidmanna a

ETH Zürich, Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland

Abstract – Paper 285 Airport locations are increasingly the place of non-aeronautical development activities. This is driven by airport operators seeking non-aeronautical revenues and real estate investors attempting to profit from major airports as high value locations. The resulting higher density leads to more travel to and from the location. Travellers induced by non-aeronautical activity are likely to behave different from those induced by aeronautical activity. Consequently, there are potentially not only more, but also more public transport prone travellers. This can improve the viability of operating high quality public transport services, resulting in a situation resembling transit oriented development, albeit driven by unconventional forces. Furthermore, the effect of superimposing different demand types needs to be studied – ideally, peaking behaviours of different traveller groups would even each other out. For the analysis, an iterative reduction procedure is proposed that begins with a network of high quality services. Considering mode choice behaviour, resulting passenger loads and critical demand to viably operate a service, network elements are degraded and demand is recalculated iteratively until a only viable services remain. This procedure is applied to a case study of Zurich, where large commercial activities and a public transport hub are located at the airport. It was found that the non-aeronautical development already contributes decisively to public use and without it severe service reductions would be necessary. The air passenger and airport employee travel distribution is more even than that of the commuters, resulting in a landside transport hub that sees more evenly distributed demand than traditional public transport facilities. Future growth of the airport location will increase this effect and service expansions may become an attractive option. The high connectivity of airport locations is an opportunity to drive development patterns conducive to public transport use. In addition, airports can be efficient locations for transfer centres as they lessen the off-peak drops and help sustain higher passenger number throughout the day if their locations are suitable. Keywords: Airport ground access planning, airport city, public transport, non-aeronautical activity


200


Optimization of the Crane Operations in Rail-Rail Transshipment Terminals Sam Heshmatia,*, Maria Antónia Carravillaa, José Fernando Oliveiraa a

Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, INESC TEC

Abstract – Paper 286 In the last decade, the European Union has put several incentives to increase rail transport for many reasons, namely because of the opportunity to relieve congested roads and reduce the environmental impact. Therefore, the role of an efficient inter-modal transport network as a sustainable alternative has become increasingly important. In this context, the Rail-Rail Transshipment Terminals (RRTTs) as an emerging technology in railway systems attract a lot of attentions to increase transportation frequencies and number of destinations, while providing suitable operation time. Several studies in the literature claim that the global RRTT problem is too complicated to be monolithically solved. Therefore, existing studies tackled the RRTT problem partially. The sub-problems of RRTTs can be categorized into four categories: the sub-problems related to scheduling the train process, scheduling crane operations, positioning containers on the yard, and scheduling the shuttle cars. In this study, we are aiming at integrating the sub-problems of scheduling crane operations (SCO) into one main problem. The SCO is an operational problem that has to be solved for every bundle of trains arriving at the transshipment yard in RRTTs and it includes three sub-problems. First, the SCO assigns each container a position on the outbound train with the proper destination in such a way that the overall containers' movement distance is minimized. It is done by considering the capacity constraints of the train wagons. Next, it assigns container moves to cranes. This sub-problem divides the yard into partitions which overlap each other and each partition is the operating area of one crane. Finally, the last sub-problem determines the schedule of container moves per crane. We propose two mixed-integer programming models to formulate the SCO problem including the three sub-problems with the objective of minimizing the total processing time of the cranes, while minimizing the number of the containers left behind on the yard. The first model considers a yard with one crane and the second model considers a yard with multiple cranes and overlapping operation areas of the cranes. This approach is validated on a set of instances taken from the literature. The main contribution focused in integrating the three sub-problems of RRTTs into one problem and formulating it into a mixed-integer programming model. This study lays the groundwork for operations planning systems which can provide decision support for freight terminal planning. Keywords: Railway systems; Transshipment terminals; Scheduling; Crane Operations; Linear Programming


201


Is a temporary change in mode choice a motivation to switch individuals travel behavior? Experiment with Electric Bicycles Nikoleta Krousouloudia*, Amalia Polydoropouloua, Athena Tsirimpaa a

Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport, University of the Aegean. Korai 2a, Chios, 82100, Greece.

Abstract – Paper 287 Researchers consider that the main factors affecting individuals travel behavior are households’ vehicle ownership index, place of residence, land use and transport systems’ condition, individuals’ travel happiness, social interaction, characteristics of the neighborhood and household, the socio-economic characteristics and the quality of life. The aim of this paper is to investigate and quantify individuals’ behavioral change through an experiment inducing a temporary change in the mode choice of individuals. In addition, the changes in individuals’ perceptions and attitudes towards the motorized modes and active travel, as well as the effect of the experiment on mode choice and frequency of usage will be investigated. The experiment was conducted from July to November 2013 and from March to September 2014 in Chios, Greece. The experiment consisted of three phases; 1) the pre-treatment phase, where a random sample among the individuals was interviewed to collect their demographic characteristics, information about their current travel patterns and their attitudes and perceptions towards motorized modes and active transport, 2) the main test phase, where the participants were required to change their travel behavior temporarily by using an electric bicycle for 5 days. During this phase participants completed a Travel & Activity diary and replied to a set of questions regarding their experience with the use of electric bicycles during the week of the electric bicycle usage; and 3) the post-treatment phase where, a follow up survey was conducted three months later, in order to collect data on participants travel behavior, their satisfaction/level of happiness with it, and the frequency of active transport and motorized modes usage, after the study. This research provides data on trips recorded over 365 days from 73 individuals. A regression model is under development, where the dependent variable is the difference between the total number of trips conducted per mode after the experiment and the total number of trips conducted per mode before the experiment, while the explanatory variables are, individuals socio-economic characteristics and attitudes and perceptions towards active transport. The implications of this research are several. First of all, the literature on behavioral change in transportation is relatively scarce. Secondly, exploring the mode switching behavior of individuals in small communities and insular areas is of interest since, their inhabitants present different travel behavior compared to those living in urban environments. In addition, the model estimation results are expected to offer useful insights to policy makers/local authorities, transport operators and transportation users, towards the promotion of active transport modes.

Keywords: behavioral change; travel behavior; mode switching; electric bicycles

*


202


Practical macroscopic evaluation and comparison of railway timetables Peter Sels a,b,*, Dirk Cattrysse b, Pieter Vansteenwegenb a

b

Logically Yours BVBA, Plankenbergstraat 112 bus L7, 2100 Antwerp, Belgium KU Leuven, Leuven Mobility Research Centre, CIB, Celestijnenlaan 300, 3001 Leuven, Belgium

Abstract – Paper 288 From the perspective of passengers, a railway timetable can be called better than another if its expected passenger time is lower in practice. So, we constructed an analytical function that evaluates a timetable on this criterion: total expected passenger time in practice. Other methods to evaluate timetables invariably describe different key performance indicators (KPIs): realisability, feasibility, stability, efficiency, robustness, resilience, but mostly do not indicate how to score and weigh these different KPIs. This means that when comparing two timetables, deciding which one is preferable, remains hard. Our objective of expected passenger time in practice resolves these issues. Also, our analytical stochastic approach has quite some advantages. For example, the exponential amount of combinations of primary delays over all actions that standard simulation packages explicitly iterate over is dealt with implicitly and much more efficiently, so our method is much faster. Our method is applied to a first and a later improved, second timetable, of all passenger trains in Belgium. Both timetables were manually planned and then put into operation in practice. With our method, we can conclude that the improved timetable reduces the expected passenger time in practice compared to the first one. We also show that this is caused mainly by better passenger transfer planning, but also partly by a changed line planning. Comparison of the reported results for both timetables also suggests that advantages of each could maybe be combined.

Keywords: Cycling Timetabling; Expected Passenger Time: Periodic Event Scheduling Problem: Mixed Integer Linear Programming


203


Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Location Problem: The case of Thessaloniki Dimitrios Efthymioua, Katerina Chrysostomoua,*, Maria Morfoulakia, Georgia Aifantopouloua a

Centre for Research and Technology Hellas - Hellenic Institute of Transport, 6th km Charilaou – Thermi Rd., Thessaloniki 570 01, Greece

Abstract – Paper 290 Given the importance of reducing Europe's dependence on imported oil and cutting carbon emissions from road transport by 60% until 2050, the EU has set the goal to diminish the number of conventionally fuelled vehicles in urban areas. Cities are expected to develop comprehensive sustainability plans and establish an aggressive strategy to reduce transportation emissions, improve air quality and upgrade the urban environment. As part of this overall goal, cities need to become more sustainable by making urban fleet more efficient. In order to encourage the electrification of urban road transport, cities must prepare themselves to welcome this forthcoming massive upheaval in transportation, in which electric vehicles come to great prominence. In this context and in order to prepare the urban environment and provide users with charging options, the present work investigates the Electric Charging Facility Location Problem that is considered to be the most critical one to foster EVs' wide adoption. An exhausted literature review will be presented followed by a solution that has been developed for the city of Thessaloniki in Greece based on the maximum coverage facility location problem using OD data. For the purposes of this research the open-source FLP spreadsheet solver has been used, an open source platform developed by the VeRoLog working group on Vehicle Routing and Logistics Optimization within EURO. The expected electric vehicles charging demand has been estimated for 2020 based on today's mobility behaviour and the results of a sensitivity analysis indicate that for every extra station located around the city center, the covered demand for electric charging increases on average by 4.4%, while 15 stations will be required in order to cover 80% of the expected demand. The methodology developed is generalizable to data sets available for almost any region, and can be used to support decisions on electric charging locations around the world. Keywords: electromobility, electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, facility location, sustainable urban mobility


204


Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process for the Prioritization of Pavement Sections with Multiple Distresses Sarfaraz Ahmed a,*, P. Vedagiri a, and K. V. Krishna Rao a a

Indian Institute Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400076, India

Abstract – Paper 291 Pavement Management System (PMS) deals with all aspects of the pavement management process from planning, design, construction, maintenance and rehabilitation programming through project development and implementation. In developing countries like India, major investment on infrastructure is for building roads including maintenance and rehabilitation, which improves economy on long term basis. Concept of prioritization of maintenance activities is commonly applied in pavement maintenance planning. The maintenance of pavement sections based on condition index value is common practice where all the distresses are combined in a single equation which is empirical in nature. Though it is very easy in use, its contribution of individual distress in the maintenance of pavement are ascertain. To overcome this difficulty analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is adopted in this study. The objective of this study is to apply AHP technique to prioritize pavement maintenance activities of different sections which consist of multiple distresses. As part of study, detailed road network of 28 sections of Mumbai city, India has been digitized using global positioning system. The measurement of pavement surface distresses such as pothole, alligator cracking, patching and ravelling by visual survey method is common practice in India. The observations are subjective and lack of accuracy. In this study terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) has been used to accurately measure the above mentioned surface distresses, while straight edge has been used to measure rutting. Rating approach method in AHP is used to facilitate the prioritization of alternatives on the basis of important parameters such as road type and pavement surface distresses. Normalized weights of criteria, sub-criteria and inconsistency rate in each pairwise comparison have been used to determine weights of alternatives. Finally ranking for each section is determined based on the obtained weights of alternatives. To validate the adopted method, the solution of priority ratings by the AHP is compared with the corresponding solution by the traditional pavement maintenance procedure called road condition index. It has been found that the rating approach in AHP method prioritized the impaired sections for maintenance in an effective manner. The proposed model in this study can be easily and precisely used to specify the maintenance priority index for each section according to its specifications. Keywords: Pavement management system; Analytical hierarchy process; terrestrial laser scanner


205


The problem of schedule offshore supply port operations Rennan Danilo Seimetz Chagasa*, Virgilio Jose Martins Ferreira Filhoa, Laura Bahiensea, Bruno Ferreira Vieirab a

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro – UFRJ/COPPE, Technology Center - Block F, Rio de Janeiro 21941-611, Brazil a b PETRORBAS, Horácio Macedo, 950, University City, Rio de Janeiro 21941-915, Brazil

Abstract – Paper 294 The oil industry has grown considerably in recent years and technological investments are essential for improving its processes. This work within the Exploration and Production (E&P) operations of the offshore petroleum industry is focused on the transportation of deck cargo to the offshore units. They are supported by a logistics and service system and a high quality transportation system is critical to ensure the mobility of products efficiently and on time, reducing the total logistics cost. The objective of this work is to investigate and improve the operations involving the transportation of deck cargo to the offshore units defining the departure times of supply vessels by modeling and solving it as a mixed integer programming problem. This problem is known in the literature as Berth Allocation Problem (BAP) and consists in choosing the best schedule to the offshore supply port operations. This means defining the best berthing times for the respective supply routes, taking into account the following restrictions. The several units served by one vessel are grouped according to their demand profile and proximity. Each cluster has a frequency of weekly visits according to its demand. This frequency can be from one up to seven visits per week. It is important for travels belonging to the same group to be spaced throughout the week. It would not make sense that a new supply vessel leaves the port, in direction to the same units, a few hours after the previous trip. Thus, clusters with two weekly visits should have a spacing of approximately 84 hours, clusters with 3 visits, about 56 hours and so forth. This uniform allocation of trips throughout the week provides greater stability to the units operations and a safer control of inventories. There are some types of demand that are not compatible with certain berths. For security reasons, transactions involving diesel loading or other fluids should not occur near the beach, some berths do not support the weight of the load, or simply do not have the most appropriate equipment. In addition, vessels handling times and slack security for mooring should be considered. Three types of formulation were developed for the problem. The model proved to be very useful for realistic applications, reducing the planning time from day to a few hours and reaching seconds in some cases. Keywords: Berth Allocation Problem; Integer Programming; Offshore logistics.


206


Enhancing the service quality of transit systems in rural areas by flexible transport services Khaled Saeed a,*, Fumitaka Kurauchi b a

Graduate School of Engineering, Gifu University, Yanagido 1-1, Gifu 501-1193, Japan Department of Civil Engineering, Gifu University, Yanagido 1-1, Gifu 501-1193, Japan

b

Abstract – Paper 296 Public transit services in rural areas needs to be more innovative to satisfy the variation of the demand. Residents living in these areas may have different travel demand with different destinations and therefore it is inadvisable to run a fixed schedule transit service. Moreover, elderly and disabled people are facing with the lack of access to the public transit services, which may led to social exclusion. Also for other travelers, especially in adverse weather conditions, it is difficult to enjoy the transit services if the bus stop or station is far from their origin and/or destination. The government and local authorities are always trying to maintain running the public transit services in rural areas and improving the accessibility to these services. All such reasons lead us to a dire need to provide a more flexible transit services. Dial-A-Ride (DAR) systems are a form of flexible transport that may provide better service in rural areas where a regular bus services may be less available or costly ineffective. The DAR problem consists of designing vehicle routes and schedules for a number of users from a specified pickup and delivery points within a given time windows for their requests between origins and destinations. From a modelling point of view, the problem is a generalization of the Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Window (PDPTW). The problem complexity makes DAR problem as a NP-hard problem, whose optimal solutions are still limited to simple and small-size problems. In this paper we provide a solution method based on mixed-integer formulation for solving the DAR service. The contribution of this paper mainly consists in addressing the problem considering the social side not only the operating cost side. More attention is paid to the quality of the provided service with respect to different user types by linking the maximum ride time of a request dynamically with its direct travel time. Computational experiments on a real-life data from local city of Gifu Prefecture in Japan are carried out to test the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Experiments show the benefits of these modifications in term of decreasing the average waiting time and the excess of the actual travel time over the direct travel time for all travelers. Keywords: Dial-A-Ride; Rural Areas; Social Costs


207


Modified Social Force model for Pedestrian Walking Behaviour at Sidewalks Siddharth S.M.P.a* and P.Vedagiria a

IIT Bombay,Powai, Mumbai,400076, India

Abstract – Paper 297 Pedestrian walking behaviour is complex to model and depends on individual’s characteristics. There are several models which model pedestrian movement and Social force model (SFM) is one of them. SFM assumes that the walking behaviour of pedestrian is influenced by a series of social forces. Each of these forces models some tendency of pedestrians during walking. SFM was chosen in this study since it has been able to replicate various observed pedestrian macro behaviours in normal and panic conditions. In developing countries like India we also observe pedestrian entering and exiting throughout the length of the unfenced footpath/sidewalk. These behaviours affect the flow in the sidewalk. Previous studies have also indicated that pedestrian walking behaviour varies across culture. Basic SFM will not be able to model this. Hence this present study modifies existing pedestrian SFM to simulate actual walking behaviour in sidewalks considering local conditions. A simulation model will be created based on this and calibrated. Sample pedestrian data was collected from a side walk in Mahapalika marg near Chathrapathi Shivalji Terminus (CST) in Mumbai. Videography technique was used to collect data and pedestrian flow and speed were extracted. For all the pedestrians, their characteristics (gender, age, luggage), and behaviour (cell phone usage and group size) were noted. An ANOVA test was conducted to find out the major characteristic which affects the pedestrian speed. Gender, Age and group behaviour were found to be significantly affecting pedestrian speed. Based on this sample data the forces of SFM were fixed. A driving force, pedestrian-pedestrian repulsion and a pedestrianboundary repulsion force of the basic SFM were modelled. Gender and age effect were modelled by varying the desired speed and relaxation time parameters of these forces. A new permeable boundary force was introduced to model the pedestrians entering and exiting the footpath through sides. The length of the footpath was divided into suitable no of subsections and near each subsection a way point which is a temporary destination is assigned. For a pedestrian entering from the main entries and wanting to exit through sides the permeable boundary force pulls it towards the exit. Similarly for a pedestrian entering from sides pedestrians boundary force is repulsive. Modified SFM with all these forces has been modelled and calibrated.

Keywords: Pedestrian Simulation; Modified Social force model; Permeable boundary force; Sidewalks; Indian Condition


208


Are tech-friendly users keener on buying an AFV? Exploring future car purchase choice Ioannis Tsourosa*, Amalia Polydoropouloua, Athena Tsirimpaa a

University of the Aegean, Korai 2A, Chios, 82100, Greece

Abstract – Paper 298 AFVs (alternative fuel vehicles) are regarded by a group of researchers and practitioners as a solution to greenhouse gas emissions issues and a valid alternative in motorized vehicles that respects the CO2 emissions reduction policies that many countries and international organizations have enacted. A big part of transportation studies and papers have explored the connection between technology and transport behavior. From the effect that ICT has in daily transportation decisions to the effects of technological advance in long term household decisions that are connected to transportation. In recent years, the level of an individual’s affection – familiarity with technology or social networks has been used as a latent attribute to explore their transport behavior and choices This study uses data from "Green Transport in Island Areas - GreTIA" project. This data is collected in Chios, the 5th largest Greek island. The experiments presented to the individuals two different hypothetical future scenarios. The two scenarios are: The "grey" scenario, with a 3 €/lt gas price, a continuation of the economic stagnation in Greece and taxes at the same level as the base year; and the "green" scenario, with a significant drop in the gas price – 1.2 €/lt, a reasonable economic development, followed by a drop in unemployment rate and a high rise in emission taxes. Data from ACBC experiments indicate the following: Under the “grey” scenario, 17.1% of the respondents consider buying a car. Of these considering buying a vehicle 54% say they would buy a new car as opposed to a used. “Green” scenario respondents say that they would buy a car in a 39.5% percentage (of which 78% would buy a new one). Results indicate that the respondents take advantage of the green scenario higher wages and lower unemployment to express their will to buy a new vehicle more openly than the gray scenario. This is further examined in the first experiment results: Grey scenario: 31.7% regular gas, 24.4 diesel, 34.2 hybrid, 7.3 electric and 2.4 natural gas. On the contrary, green scenario: 46.2 regular gas, 23% diesel, 24.5 hybrid, 4.4 electric and 2.2 natural gas. The hypothesis we make on this paper is that individuals that are associated with technology and are frequent users / very familiar to social networks are more likely to buy an AFV. We model this assumption using a latent class cluster. The results of the paper can be useful to both policy makers and market researchers. Keywords: Alternative Fuel; Tech-friendly users; Latent class cluster; Social networks


209


The Influence of Transportation Infrastructures and Mobility Patterns on the Evolution of Sprawl in Portuguese Medium Cities between 1991 and 2011 João de Abreu e Silvaa, Marcos Correiaa*, Guineng Chena a

CESUR/CEris, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais,1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 304 In the last decades urban sprawl phenomena have become an important topic among transport and urban planners. Urban sprawl is a type of urban growth pattern with relevant and complex interactions with travel patterns, since is both a result and a cause of changes in mobility. It is also commonly recognized that sprawling patterns are, in a great part, a result of both infrastructure policies and rising levels of car ownership and use. The present work aims to study sprawl and its drivers using a sample of 64 medium cities in Portugal (excluding the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Oporto) and disentangle the role of transportation infrastructure investment and growth, and mobility patterns on its evolution. To achieve these objectives, we use data from 3 census periods, 1991, 2001 and 2011, thus creating a 3 wave panel data set. Since sprawl is a multidimensional phenomenon, 5 indicators were built to measure it. These were distributed into three different groups related with particular aspects of sprawl, namely: the relation between population density and spatial growth, including the sprawl index developed by Amnon and Askhenazi in 2007; the type of spatial growth to account for fragmentation and dispersion sprawling patterns, like leapfrog sprawl; and irregularity of urban form. A preliminary analysis using data from the decade of 1991-2001, showed, as expected, that commuting patterns influenced several dimensions of sprawl. Other variables including previous urban evolution, economic growth, property structure and socioeconomic characteristics also contributed to explain sprawling patterns. Based on these previous findings, we model the evolution of these 5 sprawl indicators as a function of commuting indicators, while controlling for socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the population, geographical and climatic aspects, economic growth and dynamics, municipal policies, accessibility and transport infrastructure provision levels. The obtained results are discussed, as well as its implications in terms of both transport and land use policies. Keywords: Urban Sprawl; commuting patterns; Medium cities; Panel Models


210


Optimal Location of Bike-Sharing Stations Inês Frade a*, Anabela Ribeiroa a

University of Coimbra, Department of Civil Engineering, Rua Luís Reis Santos – Polo II 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 305 The promotion of sustainable alternatives to motorized individual mobility has been seen in the past few decades as one of the cornerstones in a strategy to reduce the negative externalities related to the transportation sector. Bicycle sharing is increasingly popular as a sustainable transport system and the number of bike sharing schemes has grown significantly worldwide in recent years. One of the most important elements in the implementation of these systems is the location of the stations In fact, if they are randomly located, this can compromise its success. Municipalities or public-private partnerships are mostly responsible for implementing bike-sharing schemes. The public investment in bicycle mobility (particularly bike-sharing) is complex because it is always subject to a budget. The main concern for public investment is to maximize the benefits through the design and implementation of bike-sharing systems. This work sets out a methodology to help with the decision-making of bike-sharing systems. The research work we present proposes using an optimization method to design the bike sharing system such that it maximizes the covered demand and takes the available budget as a constraint. The model combines strategic decisions for locating bike-sharing stations and defining the dimension of the system (stations and number of bicycles) with operational decisions (relocating bicycles). It determines the optimal location of the bicycle stations, the fleet size, the capacity of the stations and the number of bicycles in each station considering that the initial investment is lower than the given budget, and it balances the annual cost of the system (the maintenance cost of bicycles and stations) allowing a possible support budget from the system provider to cover any loss resulting from the shortfall between its operating cost and the revenue from the subscription charges. It must be coordinated with a demand study for the city or urban area involved. A case study in Coimbra, Portugal, is presented and discussed. Keywords: Bike sharing; optimization models; maximal covering models.


211


Combining multiple trips in a seaport environment for empty movements minimization Claudia Caballinia,b, Ilaria Rebecchia *, Simona Saconea,b a

DIBRIS-Department of Informatics, BioEngineering, Robotics and Systems Engineering. University of Genova, Via Opera Pia 13, Genoa, 16145, Italy b

CIELI-Italian Centre of Excellence in Integrated Logistics. University of Genova, Piazza della Nunziata 6, Genoa, 16124, Italy

Abstract – Paper 306 Road transportation represents the most used transportation mode to cover short distances. However, structural lack of planning and optimization in road transportation creates negative effects both for companies and for the social community, such as environmental pollution, economic loss and road congestion. These effects are mainly due to the fact that a lack of planning can yield the necessity of a huge number of empty trips. Usually trucks that pick up or deliver a full container in a seaport must return back the empty container to the place where the trip started, so performing one leg of the total trip without payload. The aim of the present paper is to propose a mathematical approach for combining multiple trips in a seaport environment (specifically, import, export and inland trips) by considering the opportunity of carrying two 20 ft containers simultaneously on the same truck and by using the same load unit if possible. In this way, in the same route, more than two nodes can be visited with the same vehicle thus significantly reducing the number of total empty movements. Time windows constraints related to companies and terminal opening hours as well as to ship departures are considered in the problem formulation. Moreover driving hours restrictions and trips deadlines are taken into account, together with goods compatibility for matching different trips. An experimental campaign based on real data is discussed in the paper. Keywords: Trips combination; Optimization; MILP; import-export road trips; empty movements.


212


An efficient and realistic railway system simulator Jean Damaya*, Adrien Boillota a

SNCF-I&R, 40 avenue des Terroirs de France, 75611 Paris Cedex12, France

Abstract – Paper 308 Several microscopic simulation models are nowadays embedded in sophisticated software tools that allow a precise assessment of railway operations on a detailed infrastructure. Some disturbances can be injected in both the deterministic input data and regulation rules (such as signaling rules), e.g. trains can have specific delays and the driver's behaviour can be statistically injected for each train, with more or less success. Due to the complexity of the infrastructure description and for performance issues, recent works in the literature consist in aggregating some components of these microscopic models. In this paper, we present a new railway simulation approach based on a macroscopic description of the train slots. Indeed, we use a database that provides the arrival and departure times at every Point Of Interest (POI) of a railway network (a few thousands of POIs on the global french railway network), in theory (timetables) and in practice (realized traffic). Furthermore, the POIs are automatically aggregated in node-blocks (stations and major bifurcations) and arc-blocks (between node-blocks) thanks to graph contraction technics, in such a way that each event of the discrete simulation corresponds to a transition of a train between two blocks. These events are chronologically taken into account in the simulation, and each step of the simulation may induce a dynamic update of the delays of trains involved in the transition (due to block capacities and headways on arc-block tracks). Train delays could also be added either specifically on some blocks for one or several trains (e.g. for overall speed limitations, works on tracks...), or could come from stochastic functions describing the (positive or negative) observed gaps between theoretical and realized train passages all over the network. This latter empirical approach of the "background noise" ensures a global reliability of this simulator for predictive studies. Moreover, we take into account in this model some operation rules relative to the use of train resources, that is to say not only the infrastructure, but also the rolling stock, the crew (drivers and conductors): rosters provide on the one hand precedence relations that have to be respected between couples of consecutive trains covered by the same resource, and on the other hand the way resources go from and to the associated "containers" near the arrival / departure stations (such as maintenance facilities). Finally, commercial issues are integrated: the traveller occupancy in trains and the passenger connections in some stations between two trains may also induce disturbancies in the system. Service and production KPIs have been defined to calibrate the model, and to assess the relevance of regulation decisions, at a tactical or operational stage. These KPIs may be visualized over time and space, e.g. the evolution of the timetables during the simulation. The software tool is industrialised in 2015 at SNCF, after having been tested and validated on a large set of instances coming from various use-cases. Its user-friendly graphical interface allows a user to create its own scenario from scratch in a few minutes (including the network edition). Keywords: Railway system planning; Realistic stochastic delays; Discrete event simulation


213


Evaluation of the environmental and financial impact of adopting alternative technologies in a Carsharing System for the city of Lisbon D.C. Guimarãesa, A.S. Vasconcelosa, G.H.A. Correiab, T.L. Fariasa* a

LAETA, IDMEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1 - 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geoscience, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1 2628 CN Delf ,The Neatherlands

b

Abstract – Paper 309 In this study we analyzed the way carsharing systems operate when adopting conventional and alternative vehicles while taking into account the variations of the operator’s financial costs as well as the environmental benefits for a case study in Lisbon (Portugal). To assess the performance of the carsharing system, a cost-benefit analysis tool was built to evaluate the mobility data of Lisbon obtained with a simulation model for the implementation of a carsharing system. In this assessment different vehicle technologies were taken into account (diesel, hybrids and full electric) and also different pollutants emission to evaluate the environmental performance of the system. In the environmental analysis the CO2, NOx and PM pollutant emissions were analyzed according to each vehicle technology used. Concerning the operator’s annual net profit (ANP), for a 300 vehicle fleet, adopting hybrid or electric vehicles reduces the ANP in ca. 10-15% when compared to the reference fleet composed of Smart Fortwo diesel vehicles. The environmental performance of the system is very dependent on the technology used due to the different emission factors associated. In the conventional vehicles there are local pollutant emissions whereas the electric vehicle does not have them and the life cycle CO2 emissions of the electric vehicle are also lower compared to the other vehicle technologies. A complete assessment of these pollutants is made in this study. This type of analysis can be an important tool for decision making when implementing a carsharing system in order to be aware of the different costs inherent to each vehicle technology and of the different environmental impacts of each vehicle type; in some cases, the environmental benefits may even point out the possibility of a public accounts transference to the carsharing companies, compensating the operator costs. Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis; environmental analysis; carsharing systems


214


Investigation on the Influence of Operational Characteristics on Safety Performance of Multilane Rural Highways Praveen Va*, Veeraragavan Ab a

Doctoral Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Insititute of Technology Madras, Chennai 600036, India b Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Insititute of Technology Madras, Chennai 600036, India

Abstract – Paper 310 Roadway crashes lead to loss of lives and form the basis for the substantial economic losses in the country. According to World Health Organization, the fatality rate in India has increased from 16.8 in 2009 to 18.9 in 2013 and the statistical data reveals that rural highways are facing a disparate rate of crashes, i.e., almost 55% of road crashes occurred on rural roads in the year 2012 compared to urban roads in India. In order to facilitate the decision makers about the various factors contributing to crashes and the proper design policies, accurate understanding between the crash frequency and various roadway design parameters is essential. Hence the present study focuses on investigating the influence of geometric characteristics and traffic exposure on the number of crashes by developing relationship between them, based on the operational characteristics of a highway under heterogeneous traffic condition. By due considering the variables used in previous researches and data availability, explanatory variables were identified to establish the relationship. Study was carried out on a four-lane divided rural highway in plain and rolling terrain, for a period of five years from 2009 to 2013. Because of random, discrete, and nonnegative nature of crashes, generalized linear modelling approach was used for developing the relationship. Initially, Poisson regression models were employed for estimating the safety performance. Because of over-dispersion of the data, Poisson gamma and negative binomial regression were used. To compare the difference between the predicted and observed values, performance measures such as mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used. The study resulted in a conclusion that negative binomial regression model is the best model to evaluate safety performance of multi-lane highways based on goodness of fit measures such as log likelihood ratio, AIC values and performance measures. Moreover, the study gave insight into the influence of operational characteristics such as links, intersections and interchanges and their affect in the evaluation of safety performance of a highway operating under heterogeneous traffic condition. Keywords: Road crashes; Rural highway; Operational characteristics; Heterogeneous traffic


215


Memetic algorithm for computing shortest paths in multimodal transportation networks Omar Diba,b,*, Marie-Ange Manierb, Alexandre Caminadab a

Technological Research Institute SystemX, 91120 Palaiseau, France b OPERA-UTBM, 90010 Belfort, France

Abstract – Paper 312 Route planning in multimodal transportation networks is gaining more and more importance. Travelers ask for efficient routing methods allowing them to reach their destinations through the intricate transportation scheme. To address this issue, several algorithms have been proposed since 1956. In this paper, we propose a new method for computing shortest paths in multimodal transportation networks. We only consider railway, bus and pedestrian networks. The travel time is the only metric in our cost function, although commuters do not only seek a short-time travel, but they also consider other criteria such as monetary cost, comfort, effort. Each network is modeled separately as a directed graph. We then use transfer links to integrate all models into one larger model that adequately represents networks infrastructures, as well as, yields correct results when applying routing algorithms. Our approach is a combination of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) that belongs to the population-based metaheuristics and a Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) that performs with one single solution. Our algorithm works as follows: It generates firstly a set of initial solutions. For this goal, we propose a double search technique to get initial feasible paths between the origin and the destination node. Then the quality of this population is improved using VNS. Our algorithm repeatedly performs crossover and mutation operations in order to enhance the incumbent solutions. We use one single point crossover with probability of 0.5. As mutation operator, we use VNS method with probability of 0.5. Our VNS approach is based on two neighboring structures constructed thanks to a preprocessing step done during the generation phase of networks. To validate our method, we have produced a multimodal graph based on the French region Ile-de-France that includes the city of Paris and its suburbs. The data comprise geographical information, as well as timetable information for railway and bus modes. We compared our algorithm with Dijkstra’s algorithm and with a pure GA. Results showed that our method and the pure GA highly outperform Dijkstra in terms of speed. However, they do not always provide optimal routes. While the average GAP to the optimality of the pure GA may increase to 15 %, our hybrid GA-VNS always results in solutions that are very close to the optimal solution. Finally, it is worth mentioning that our approach is also flexible to cope with additional constraints that may arise in transportation system such as multi-criteria optimization and stochastic issues. Keywords: Multimodal shortest paths; Hybrid metaheuristics; Genetic algorithm; Variable neighborhood search;Dijkstra


216


Modelling passengers’ activity choices in airport terminal before the security checkpoint: the case of Portela airport in Lisbon Sofia Kalakou a, Filipe Moura a,* a

Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, CESUR, DeCIVIL, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001, Lisbon, Portugal.

Abstract – Paper 313 Airports are transport facilities that accommodate both processes related to the passenger air-trip and usually many nonaeronautical activities. The “journey” of the passengers from their entrance to the airport until the boarding to the aircraft includes all the required processes that take place in the building, require the passenger participation, ensure the preparation of the passengers for their air trip and cover their free non-aeronautical time. The passengers have to pass through aeronautical tasks and in between these aeronautical processes they spend their available time in other activities which are not part of their air-trip. The range of these activities varies significantly depending on the traffic type and size that the airport serves, its geographical location and other cultural, managerial and financial factors. In this paper we attempt to understand, model and predict the passenger discrete activity choices from the moment they arrive at the airport until the security control area. Lisbon Portela airport was used as a case study for the application of the methodology and pertinent data were collected at the airport by the authors. One multinomial Logit model was developed to describe whether the passengers when they are before security they choose to spend their time only at aeronautical activities or they divide their time between aeronautical and non-aeronautical activities. It was shown that aspects such as the frequency of travel, travelling for business, performing the check-in online and having planned the activities before arriving at the airport lead the passengers to not perform discretionary activities before security. The aspects that favored the visit to non-aeronautical areas were traveling to an international destination, not living in the city of the airport and that arriving at the airport accompanied by people who will not travel. When increasing the proportion of the passengers who perform the check-in online from 30% to 70% we found that the share of the passengers who perform only aeronautical activities increases from 47% to 53%. Keywords: passenger activity choices; airport terminal; discrete choice modelling; airport areas


217


Evaluation of Incident Management Impacts Using Stochastic Dynamic Traffic Assignment Anil Yazicia*, Camille Kamgab, Kaan Ozbayc a

Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY, 10031, USA c Professor, Civil and Urban Engineering, New York University, New York, NY, 11201, USA

b

Abstract – Paper 315 In this paper, a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) formulation with probabilistic capacity constraints is suggested in order to incorporate incident-induced random capacity reductions into evaluation of incident management strategies. For this purpose, a cell transmission model (CTM) based system optimal dynamic traffic assignment (SODTA) formulation is used as the underlying network model. Hypothetical scenarios are devised in which the potential incident management (IM) strategies are assumed to reduce either the average or the variation of the incident duration. For each case, a small scale Monte Carlo simulation is also performed and compared with the analytic results of the stochastic DTA model. It was shown that the stochastic DTA model not only provides the changes in total system travel time within the reliability measure, but it also provides the analytical results which requires significantly less computational burden. The model also incorporates the impacts of rerouting which is not possible with a queuing theory based analysis on a single link. The results also show that rather than reducing the average duration, comparable delay reductions can be achieved by reducing the variance while keeping the average incident duration unchanged. Hence, IM strategies, solely targeting average duration may be deemed not to be successful, yet, they may be an effective policy to reduce delay. Overall, the proposed model provides a computationally efficient network-wide analysis of incident induced delay without ignoring the highly stochastic nature of roadway incidents. Keywords: Dynamic Traffic Assignment; Network Modeling; Stochastic Programming; Incident Management


218


Optimizing Emergency Transportation through Multicommodity Quickest Paths Anna Melchiori a, *, Antonino Sgalambro a a

National Research Council of Italt - Istituto per le Applicazioni del Calcolo "Mauro Picone", Via dei Taurini, 19, Roma 00185, Italy

Abstract – Paper 319 In transportation networks with limited capacities and travel times on the arcs, a class of problems attracting a growing scientific interest is represented by the optimal routing and scheduling of given amounts of flow to be transshipped from the origin points to the specific destinations in minimum time. Such problems are of particular concern to emergency transportation where evacuation plans seek to minimize the time evacuees need to clean the affected area and reach the safe zones. Flows over time approaches are among the most suitable mathematical tools to provide a modeling representation of these problems from a macroscopic point of view. Among them, the Quickest Flow Problem (QFP) asks for sending an s-t flow (namely, a flow directed from a source s to a sink t) taking into account the limitations of inflow on the arcs and such that the last unit of flow arrives at destination as quickly as possible, thus minimizing the makespan of the process. In a real management of emergency transportation operations, a relevant drawback of the solutions provided by the QFP lies in the frequent assignment of multiple and differentiated paths to the s-t flow, requiring thus the group of evacuees to be divided and routed on different ways to its destination. The Quickest Path Problem (QPP), extensively treated in the literature, copes with this issue requiring the origin-destination flow to be routed on a single path. State-of-the-art presents a lack of studies on the multicommodity generalization of the QPP, where each commodity, with its own origin, destination, and flow demand, has to be routed on a single path sharing the same capacitated arcs with the other commodities, while minizing the makespan. We refer to this as the Multicommodity Quickest Path Problem (MCQPP), which reveals its dramatic relevance when unsplittable dynamic flows are necessary to prevent interferences and congestion that may affect the transportation process worsening the overall clearing time. Here we focus on the above mentioned problem providing an original mathematical formulation based on mixed integer programming for a variant of the MCQPP encompassing additional constraints introduced to avoid bottlenecks. A computational experience is performed to study the effects of the unsplittable flows constraints and other additional restrictions. We provide a proof-of-concept for our original model, by comparing the results of the proposed problem with those obtained by the MCQFP on a set of benchmark tests, in terms of solution quality and makespan. Keywords: Transportation, Emergency, Evacuation, Quickest Path, Quickest Flow


219


Strategic assessment of equity related problems of Lisbon’s mobility network Camila Garciaa*, Rosário Macárioa, Carlos Felipe G. Loureirob a

b

Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, Lisbon, 1049-001, Portugal Universidade Federal do Ceará, Campus do Pici – Bloco 703, Fortaleza, 60.440-900, Brasil

Abstract – Paper 320 The recognition of the strategic role of the urban mobility network and its assessment in light of strategic values and principles, such as equity on accessibility, need to be formally recognized and adequately incorporated into the planning process. In this sense, this work presents an ex-ante assessment methodology applied to Lisbon’s mobility network which allowed diagnosing two categories of accessibility problems. The first one refers to the problem of low levels of accessibility or to the differences of accessibility levels of specific groups across space that can lead to low levels of mobility and consequently impact the overall quality of life. The second one relates to the inequitable distribution of access or the differences of accessibility levels across different social groups, which can lead as well to low levels of mobility of minority groups and hence to their social exclusion. The methodology proposed for the analysis of these problems is based on a set of indicators (job accessibility by transit, trips produced and % of high educated population) that allow the characterization of their intensity and magnitude and the diagnosis of their cause and effect relationships through exploratory and confirmatory spatial analysis techniques. For the characterization, spatial distribution maps as well as Global and Local Moran Statistics are analyzed in order to understand the spatial behavior of the indicators and to identify regions of similar (clusters) and different (outliers) spatial behaviors. For the diagnosis a bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis (bivariate Moran I’s and bivariate LISA) between the indicators is performed to understand locally how they relate with each other, followed by the development of spatial regression models to quantitatively estimate the causal relationships assumed previously. The results obtained from the application of this methodology indicated the existence of problems of low levels of job accessibility by transit in the periphery areas of the city signalizing inefficiencies in the mobility network mainly due to low frequency services. Besides problems of inequitable distribution of job access by transit were also detected with some social groups of low and high levels of education located in areas of poor job accessibility, configuring for the first group a social exclusion situation and for the second group a car dependency situation. In conjunction these results allow an intelligent reading of the problems considered and the identification in an early stage of the planning process of misalignments between network configuration and equity principle through the accessibility concept. Keywords: Strategic Assessment; Mobility; Accessibility; Spatial Analysis.


220


Proposition of agent based simulation-optimization heuristics to the bicycles repositioning problem bike sharing systems Thiago Brito a,b * , Rodolfo Silva a,b, Gabriel Pontes a,b a

Genoa Decision Science, Av. Prof. Lineu Prestes 2242 CIETEC S208, Sao Paulo, 05508000, Brazil Departamento de Engenharia Naval da Escola Politecnica da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Av. Professor Mello Moraes, 2231, Sao Paulo, 05508030, Brazil

b

Abstract – Paper 322 Transportation systems offer, as main operational challenge, the maintenance a good service level, which is inevitably related to the user satisfaction level - represented manly by the reliability on the system. In the case of a Bike Sharing System (BSS), ensuring reliability means ensuring maximum system availability: users of BSSs expect nothing but bicycles and parking spots available all the time. However, the pattern of displacement of BSS users is more likely to be imbalanced within a day-time window. It is clear therefore that BSSs operate in a constant flow imbalance. The consequence of this imbalance has a primary impact a discrepancy on the planned location of the system mobile resources (bicycles), which may tend to accumulate in high demanding travel-destination stations and to become scarce in high demanding travel-origin station. Thus BSSs require as an essential condition to achieve high service levels, the implementation and operation of tools able to counteract the randomness and time-space distortions caused by the imbalance of user flows. Bicycle repositioning mechanisms are thus substantiated as essential components to ensure the operational viability of BSSs. In this context, this work explores a BSS relocation problem though the development of a hybrid Operation Research (OR) decision support system (DSS), combining simulation and optimization. The simulation methodology ensures the ability of the DSS to generate adequate representation of system considering the complexity of the relationship between variables and issues regarding the randomness of users and demand variability arrival processes within the BSS operating horizon, thus being able to provide detailed and reliable results of system operation. The optimization meanwhile aims to improve a set of pre-determined parameters of interest of the system. A step further, considering that the main element in the representation of a BSS is the interaction that arises between its constituent elements - users and their displacement profile, the positioning of bicycles throughout the system and the emerging structures that arise from this interaction, the Agent Based Simulation (ABS) emerge as a relevant concept. It provides the most appropriate set of tools to represent a BSS system, once it is able to build analysis and performance evaluation considering systems whose behavior is associated with emerging properties. ABS is therefore able to address advanced and still not handled issues through the traditional methods of simulation and OR. The study, as final result, proposes basic operational polices able to enhance the BSS performance indicators. Keywords: bike-sharing, repositioning, agent-based


221


Better Convergence for Dynamic Traffic Assignment Methods Henk Taale a,b, Adam Pel a,* a

b

Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5049, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat & TrafficQuest, P.O. Box 7007, 2280 KA Rijswijk, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 324 An essential feature in many of the dynamic traffic assignment methods that are used to study planning and traffic management problems is to compute the dynamic user equilibrium (DUE). In this paper the focus is on efficiently computing the deterministic and stochastic DUE. Both these types of equilibria are found using an iterative solution procedure. An important step in the solution algorithm for deterministic assignments is the choice for the contraction factor which determines how fast the related quadratic programming problem is solved. For stochastic assignments the speed step size to determine the starting point for the next iteration is important. As we show, the contraction factor and the step size, heavily affects both the convergence efficiency and stability. We discuss various fixed factors, a number of step size adjustments proposed by others, and a newly proposed dynamically adjusted step size. The solution method is evaluated on two transport networks of different scale. The comparative analysis suggests that, particularly for larger networks where equilibrium is harder to obtain, a dynamic adjusted contraction factor for deterministic assignment or a dynamic step size for the stochastic assignment is preferable as it consistently converges considerably faster because it does not suffer from a decreasing convergence rate. Keywords: dynamic traffic assignment; convergence; stochastic assignment; deterministic assignment


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Decisions and Performance in Public Transport Management: Case Studies from Porto, Hamburg and Dresden Sebastian Eberta*, Álvaro Costaa a

Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Rua Roberto Frias s/n, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal

Abstract – Submission 340 The performance of public transport operators (namely productivity, efficiency and effectiveness) has been studied intensively in the last decade. However, to better understand this business from an economic viewpoint, one has to see behind the curtain. The provision of urban public transport is a tricky business from a decision-maker’s perspective, since it has to balance between varying concerns: Firstly, to run the core-business, various operative decisions are available. They relate e.g. to the network (i.a. network extension), personnel (i.a. training, incentives), fleet (i.a. innovations such as hybrid engines, double-decker), schedules (i.a. frequency changes), fares and pricing (i.a. introduction of new fare schemes) and the transport service itself (i.a. implementation of new services, capacity increase, new approaches to customer retention and acquisition, implementation of computer-aided vehicle monitoring). Secondly, to sustain the business over time, strategic choices are available, such as adjustments in the business organization (i.a. introduction of new administration structures), cost-oriented programmes (i.a. large scale staff downsizing, improved planning and scheduling), business expansion (i.a. creation of additional revenues), the level of R&D projects and the annual investment in infrastructure or vehicles. Thirdly, the provision and management of urban public transport is naturally subject to various external conditions, such as trends in car-ownership, income, population, unemployment, energy prices, the level of subsidisation, political and statuary provisions as well as the legal framework. With a focus on comparing three public transport operators in Porto, Hamburg and Dresden the objective of this paper is to enhance the common performance analysis knowledge. The underlying assumption that public transport can simply be described as a production process (using inputs; creating outputs) is complemented with the evaluation of the decisions taken by the management. With regard to performance, the approach aims at identifying the magnitude of decisions and their time-lags. In a first step, production data from 1953 to 2013 is used to calculate performance scores by means of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Secondly, decisions taken are categorized and primed for quantitative analysis, as well as external data is gathered. Thirdly, regression analysis evaluates on the empirical impact of operative and strategic decisions (as well as external conditions) on the operator´s economic performance. Lastly, for each city, decision-making and performance scenarios are modelled, which might translate into policy recommendations, e.g. for setting up the regulatory/management framework which fosters the operator’s best performance. Keywords: performance analysis; benchmarking; public transport; DEA; frontier analysis; efficiency; effectiveness decision-making analysis; multi-criteria decision-making


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Adaptive group-based signal control by reinforcement learning Junchen Jin a,*, Xiaoliang Ma a a

Traffic Simulation & Control Group, Division of Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering (TEE), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10, Stockholm 10044, Sweden.

Abstract – Paper 352 Group-based signal control is one of the most prevalent control schemes in Nordic countries. The major advantage of groupbased control is its capability in providing a flexible phase structure with respect to the changes of traffic demands on different traffic movements. The current group-based control systems are usually implemented with a rather simple timing logic. However, such a timing logic is not sufficient to respond to the traffic environment whose inputs, i.e. traffic demands, dynamically change over time. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to formulate the existing group-based signal control approach as a multi-agent system capable of making intelligent timing decisions by utilizing the advancements in machine learning techniques. In this regard, reinforcement learning has shown a good potential for its self-learning properties in a dynamic environment. Consequently, this paper proposes an adaptive signal control system, enabled by a reinforcement learning algorithm, in the context of group-based phasing technique. Two different learning algorithms, Q-learning and SARSA, have been investigated and tested on a four-legged intersection. Analysis of convergence performances is conducted for these two learning algorithms. The experiments are carried out by means of an open-source traffic simulation tool, SUMO. Performances on traffic mobility of the adaptive group-based signal control systems are compared against those of a well-established group-based fixed time control. In the testbed experiments, simulation results show that learning-based adaptive signal control consistently outperforms groupbased fixed time signal control. Compared to the Q-learning approach, SARSA learning is a more suitable candidate solution for adaptive group-based signal control system in terms of improvements on travel delay. Keywords: Adaptive traffic signal control; Group-based phasing; Intelligent timing decision; Reinforcement learning


224


A Simulated Annealing Algorithm Applied to the Flood Emergency Evacuation Problem Melissa Gama a*, Bruno F. Santos b, Maria Paola Scaparra c a

b

CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Polo II, 3030-788, Coimbra, Portugal Air Transport and Operations, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands c Kent Business School, University of Kent, CT2 7ET, Canterbury, UK

Abstract – Paper 353 Floods are a significant threat for several countries, endangering the safety and the well-being of populations. Evacuation, i.e., the urgent movement of people away from the threat, is the most common procedure to protect the populations. In most countries worldwide, civil protection authorities are in charge of flood emergency evacuation, not only providing means to help the evacuation, but also ensuring that people have comfortable and safe places to stay, such as shelters. The aim of this study is to determine the location of shelters, the allocation of evacuees to shelters, and the best time to send evacuation orders to the populations affected by a flood disaster, minimizing the total travel times between the affected population and the shelters. This problem is addressed through a dynamic approach, based on a mixed-integer linear optimization model. In this approach, travel times vary over time, depending on the road conditions; shelters become available in different time periods and have a limited capacity; and evacuees’ response to evacuation orders is also considered dynamic, following an S-shaped curve. The mathematical model can be solved using an exact algorithm, but only for small instances. For reals size problems, given the dynamic characteristics of the problem, it can take many hours of computing time to converge to an optimal solution. Given that the proposed model aims at supporting decision making in response to flood emergencies, obtaining a good fast solution is deemed more important than obtaining the optimal solution after several hours. Thus, this work presents an efficient heuristic based on the simulated annealing algorithm. A comparison between the heuristic solutions and the exact algorithm solutions shows the quality of the heuristic solutions taking into consideration the computing times required to find the solutions. The case study of Wake County, North Carolina, is used to test and illustrate the capabilities of the dynamic locationallocation model. The results illustrate the need of adopting a dynamic approach when planning for flood emergency evacuation. Moreover, they demonstrate that the use of a dynamic approach is a robust and efficient approach to guarantee that the evacuation resources are used in the best possible way. Keywords: shelter location; dynamic model; evacuation orders; simulated annealing; flood emergency


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Multi-Criteria Appraisal of Multi-Modal Urban Public Transport Systems Mehdi Keyvan-Ekbatania *, Oded Catsa 0F0F

a

Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Enineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2600 GA, The Netherlands3

Abstract – Paper 355 This study proposes a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) modelling framework for the appraisal of multi-modal urban public transportation services. MCDM is commonly used to obtain choice alternatives that satisfy a range of performance indicators. The framework embraces both compensatory and non-compensatory approaches including lexicographic, Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Concordance Analysis. These methods are applied on survey data collected through a questionnaire in Teheran, Iran. The survey encompassed passengers, operators and the wider community and inquired about the perceived attributes of three urban public transport modes: regular bus, bus rapid transit and rail rapid transit. The aforementioned MCDM techniques are applied to rank the performance of the three studied transit modes. The outputs of this study are instrumental in supporting planning decisions and prioritizing measures to improve public transport services. The MCDM also enables to reveal which service aspects are considered as the most important determinants of overall performance. When considering all the respondents jointly, waiting time, travel time, punctuality and environmental impact were the most important factors which accounted together for 45% of the weights. From passengers’ perspective, importance was much more concentrated with waiting time, travel time and punctuality accounting for 54% of all weights. Non-users are more concerned than passengers about in-vehicle convenience. Operators assign equal importance to waiting time as passengers do, but assign less importance to travel time and in-vehicle convenience. In contrast, operators give more importance to economic impact, energy consumption, social impact and environmental impact (a total of 33%) than passengers (10%) and non-users (19%). All of the respondent groups gave little importance to operating cost and comfort in terms of station conditions and embarking and disembarking, whereas seat availability has a moderate level of importance. Operating cost was presumably not considered by operators as an important determinant of performance because it is conceived as the price tag (input) of obtaining a certain level of service (output) rather than a performance aspect in its own right. Keywords: Urban Public Transport Systems; Multi-Criteria Decsion Making; Performance Evaluation


226


National and regional road network optimization for Senegal using mobile phone data Yihong Wang a,*, Gonçalo H. A. Correia a, Erik de Romph a,b, Bruno F. Santos c a

Department of Transport and Planning, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands b DAT.mobility BV, P.O. Box 161, 7400 AD Deventer, The Netherlands c Air Transport and Operations, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 359 In Senegal, it is difficult for the government to make good decisions on how to optimize the road network due to the scarcity of mobility data. To solve this problem, the D4D challenge organized by Orange, a mobile phone network operator, made the data of Orange users available, giving us an opportunity to derive the mobility information in Senegal and to advise decisions on road network planning. We first applied a filtering algorithm to estimate origin-destination trip matrices (OD matrices) of sampled users in 2013 based on the provided mobile phone traces. We name these matrices relative OD matrices, since we believe that they can reflect the mobility patterns in Senegal in a relative way. Secondly, based on a literature study on the relations between travel and telecommunication, we explored such relations empirically by comparing the estimated relative OD matrices and the cell phone interaction matrices. The cell phone interaction matrices contain the number of calls and text messages of all Orange’s users, extracted from the provided dataset of communication between antenna towers. We found that the number of trips made by sampled users between each two departments is almost proportional to the number of cell phone interactions and inversely proportional to the travel cost between departments. Thirdly, based on this observation, we constructed a new type of gravity model, based on the number of cell phone interactions instead of population where the traditional gravity model is usually based on. We estimated the parameters of this new model which gave us a model to predict elastic travel demand pattern for potential road network changes. In the final step, we used this model to optimize the national and regional network for Senegal. We used an optimization model with the objectives of efficiency and equity. In the model two kinds of action can be performed: the construction of a new road; and the upgrading of an existing road. A local search algorithm is used to find the solutions to this road network design problem. We found that the created tool gained good insight into where and how to expand the Senegal network. Under assumed budget constraints, the model suggests that the focus of road development should be on the western part of Senegal for the efficiency objective, while on the south-eastern part for the equity objective. Some important link changes suggested by the model are exactly what the government has planned. Keywords: mobile phone data; OD matrix estimation; gravity model; road network design


227


Inventory Location Problem with Risk Pooling Effect: Aew Performance Analysis Between Different Formulations Gustavo Cunha de Bittencourta, Virgílio José M. Ferreira Filhoa,*, Laura Silvia Bahiense a

Production Engineering Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract – Paper 363 The supply chain system design belongs to the strategic decisions of an organization, that is, those with long-term effects and that markedly influence the image and performance of the company. Among the logistical problems commonly addressed in operations research, the transportation and storage of products can be highlighted. The inventory location problem can be described as the design of a production-distribution-storage system in two echelons, where a set of clients have to be supplied by some vendors. The warehouses should be allocated at the intermediate level in order to consolidate the cycle and safety stocks of the customers. This work presents two mathematical formulations for the Inventory Location Problem considering the risk-pooling effect, which provides reductions in the safety stocks of customers by centralizing them. The first formulation analyzes the problem from the perspective of a two-echelon supply chain being connected through a mass balance constraint, totally based on double index variables. The other includes a triple index flow variable connecting the suppliers to customers. Both models are linearized using a piecewise linearization approximation, given the nonlinear nature of the safety stock function, and two methods are proposed to divide the segments. The modeling and solution of this kind of problems have great importance from both an academic and economic perspective. One can highlight the fact that they represent a decision-making support tool that includes decisions concerning the strategic and tactical levels. This translates into more comprehensive models and solutions that fit better their business reality. In the oil industry, where huge amounts are spent on investments and operations, this represents an incredible potential for savings and efficiency gains in the supply chain as a whole. Also, the uncertainties surrounding the demand are addressed, which makes the models more adherent to reality. From an academic point of view it is possible to highlight the problem complexity, given its integer nature (MIP) e the nonlinearity of the function which determines the safety stock. It makes necessary the application of linearization techniques that reconcile a low approximation error with the possibility to find feasible solutions with reasonable computational cost. Being a relatively new field of study, there are many opportunities for improvement on existing methods and relevant findings. The models were analyzed in several aspects, and its performances were compared for five sets of randomly generated data with up to 20 suppliers, 20 warehouses and 150 customers. Keywords: Inventory Location Problem; Risk Pooling Effect; Nonlinear MIP; Piecewise Linearization.


228


Effect of traffic restrictions on urban air quality in a midsize city O. Tchepela, *, D. Diasa, A.P. Antunesa a

CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Pólo II, 3030-788, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 369 While considerable progress has been made in improving urban air quality, road transport is still one of the major pollution sources in cities. In this context, it is essential to establish a link between transport planning and air quality to define the most effective ways to solve traffic-related pollution problems in urban areas while ensuring compliance with legislation. Implementation of traffic restriction through Low Emission Zones (LEZ) is one of the possible options to reduce air pollution. Such zones have been widely adopted across European cities during the last decade. However, despite the direct effect on emission reductions, this policy has not always been successful in meeting European air quality limit values, in particular with regard to particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels. Therefore, there is very little understanding of the effectiveness of traffic restrictions on reducing urban air pollution levels. The prime objective of the current study is to evaluate the effectiveness of LEZ on the reduction of PM10 and NO 2 pollution levels with high spatial and temporal resolution, based on an integrated modelling approach at urban scale. In order to achieve this objective, a modelling system including transport-emissions-dispersion models was implemented to characterize the traffic flow changes driven by LEZ (transport modelling), to quantify transport emissions (emission modelling), and finally to evaluate their impact on air quality (air dispersion modelling). The numerical system is implemented and applied to a study area in order to evaluate how changes in traffic road assignment resulting from the restrictions will affect the emissions and air quality in a midsize Portuguese city (Coimbra). To access the effectiveness of LEZ, the modelling results are presented in terms of air quality levels, rather than just emission reductions. The quantitative information on changes in PM10 and NO2 concentration reveals local improvements of air quality within LEZ but an increase of the pollution levels in the buffer zone due to additional emissions from alternative routes. Adopting an integrated modelling approach, the current study provides key information on the effectiveness of LEZ and stresses the importance of linking air quality and transport planning to evaluate the sustainability of urban mobility policies. Keywords: traffic restrictions; urban air pollution; low emission zones; numerical modelling


229


Optimization approach to transit funding through parking fees Joana Cavadas a,*, António P. Antunes a a

CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of coimbra, Pólo II, 3070-788 Coimbra, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 370 Transit systems play a crucial role in contemporary societies by contributing decisively to attenuate the congestion and pollution problems faced in cities and, at the same time, providing relatively inexpensive transport solutions to people who cannot own or drive a car. However, such systems are often characterized by serious financial problems, as the revenues they generate are rarely enough to cover their costs. A possible approach to circumvent these problems and their economic, social and environmental implications is to manage transit systems and parking systems in an integrated manner, using parking fees to fund transit deficits. The optimization model presented in this paper is the key ingredient of such approach. It allows determining the transit fares, parking fees and supply levels for transit and parking that minimize the difference between the total costs and the total revenues involved in the operation of both the transit system and the parking system, while satisfying the travel demands between the different zones of a city that correspond to the optimum transit fares and parking fees. The model is a non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear program that we were able to solve to exact optimality only for rather small instances (20 traffic generation zones or less). For larger instances, we designed a heuristic algorithm that, according to the results of a detailed study, will provide highquality solutions to the model within reasonable computation effort. The proposed model constitutes what we believe to be a significant addition to the existing transit planning literature. Indeed, within this literature, operations research approaches typically assume transit fares and travel demands to be exogenous. These variables are endogenous in economic approaches, but such approaches are only applicable to stylized cities, and the outcomes of their application only provide loose guidance in real-world settings. As shown in the case study we discuss in the paper, our model combines the advantages of both approaches, while avoiding their shortcomings. Keywords: transit systems; parking systems; optimization model; heuristic algorithm

____________________________ *Presenting author E-mail address: [email protected]

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Optimization model for flexible carsharing systems planning António P. Antunes a*, Miguel G. Santos a, Nuno A. Ribeiro a a

CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Polo II, 3030-788, Coimbra, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 371 The upsurge of carsharing systems is one of the most recent remarkable phenomena in urban transportation. Such systems are not new, but at least until some years ago they were not really seen as a meaningful transportation alternative. The situation started to change in the early 2000s, when companies such as Zipcar, Flexcar, City Carshare and PhillyCarShare initiated their operations. The fact that since then leading automobile manufacturers such as Daimler and BMW also began to offer carsharing services (named car2go and DriveNow, respectively) seems to indicate that this transportation alternative may have a bright future. A distinctive feature of car2go and DriveNow is that they both provide what is being designated as flexible (or floating, or free-floating) service: users can pick a car from a large fleet within a given geographic area and later drop it anywhere inside the same area paying essentially a fixed price rate (per unit of time). The mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model presented in this paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first model where all the key decisions involved in the launching of a flexible carsharing system are dealt with simultaneously. It allows determining the home area (i.e., the area where cars can be picked up or dropped off), price rate(s) and fleet size that maximize the profits generated by the system, assuming that the demand for carsharing trips (i.e., how the number of trips varies as a function of the price rate) is known and ensuring that vehicle stock imbalance problems are circumvented. The model is strategic in nature, capturing the essential ingredients of carsharing operations without going into excessive particulars (e.g., the movement of cars throughout the city where the system is to be made available is not tracked in detail). The practical usefulness of the model is illustrated for a hypothetical city partly generated at random where the main features of real-world urban transportation are replicated, as well as for Coimbra, a midsize city in central Portugal. In both types of applications, we used an enhanced Nelder-Mead algorithm to solve the optimization model. Keywords: flexible carsharing systems; strategic planning; optimization model; Nelder-Mead algorithm.


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Multicriteria Evaluation of the Impacts on Drivers and Pedestrians of Implementing a Transit System with full Priority in a Congested, at Grade Intersection – A Case Study Luís Vasconcelosa, João Teixeirab* a

Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, Department of Civil Engineering, Campus Politécnico de Repeses, 3504-510 Viseu - Portugal b CITTA, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Pólo II, 3030-788, Portugal

Abstract – Paper 372 The UITP (International Association of Public Transport) set out the ambitious aim, called PTx2, of doubling the market share of public transport worldwide by 2025. One way of achieving such an ambition in urban areas where underground metro systems are not feasible is the implementation or expansion of high-performance transit systems such as Light Rail Transit (LRT) or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems. Two of the main ingredients of such systems, crucial to the speed and regularity of the transport service they provide, are dedicated infrastructure (or lane segregation) and full priority over the general traffic at grade intersections. This paper evaluates the impact of implementing a LRT system with dedicated infrastructure and absolute priority in one the most congested intersections in Coimbra, Portugal (Largo da Portagem). The analysis was carried out with a calibrated microscopic simulation model (built with the software Aimsun), for a full operating period, considering different scenarios of traffic demand and traffic light control strategies. The system performance was evaluated at different levels: in addition to the conventional evaluation of delays, for drivers, transit users, and pedestrians, the microscopic approach allowed the evaluation of atmospheric emissions, using the Vehicle Specific Power methodology (VSP), and of safety issues, using the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). Preliminary results demonstrate that, with an adequate control system, it is possible to provide full priority to transit with acceptable impacts on drivers and pedestrians. Keywords: Microsimulation; Optimization; SSAM; Emissions; VSP; Transit; Aimsun.


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Comparative analysis of multiple criteria evaluations of suppliers in different industries Jacek Żaka* a

Poznań University of Technology, 3 Piotrowo street, 60-965 Poznań, Poland

Abstract – Paper 373 The selection of suppliers belongs to an important category of decision problems in modern logistics. Different suppliers play a critical role in various supply chains and are responsible for satisfying the universal logistics principles, widely known as the “Seven Right Rule”. They are obliged to deliver: right product, in a right condition and right quantity, at a right time, to right customer, in a right place and at right costs. Based on the modern concepts of Supply Chain Management suppliers should be also featured by: agility, leanness, flexibility, cooperative spirit, compromise orientation, ability to solve problems, customers’ service excellence. The paper presents the analysis of suppliers’ selection problems in different industries. The multiple criteria evaluation and ranking of logistics service providers (LSPs) in a household chemistry industry and meat suppliers in a food industry are carried out. In each of the above mentioned 2 cases the evaluation of suppliers is formulated as a multiple criteria ranking problem and results in generating the ranking (ordered sequence) of suppliers from the best to the worst (including indifference and incomparability). The definition of variants, families of evaluation criteria and modelling of the DM’s preferences are presented. The results of computational experiments performed with the application of ELECTRE III/IV and AHP methods are demonstrated. Different aspects of the decision processes concerning the selection of suppliers are thoroughly discussed, including: consistency of the applied families of criteria, the trade-offs between criteria, the suitability of preference modeling, reliability of generated results (final rankings), features of the compromise solutions – leaders of the rankings, universal vs. specific character of the suppliers’ evaluation process. The author compares both the alternative formulations of the decision problems (input) and generated results – output rankings of suppliers. The analysis is focused on the following research / methodological questions:  Can we construct a universal methodology of evaluating / ranking the suppliers across different areas/ industries? Is suppliers evaluation industry - specific or otherwise?  What is the appropriate composition of the family of criteria that should be applied to evaluate different categories of suppliers?  How the Decision Maker should construct the decision model and what kind of interests should he/she take into account?  How multiple criteria evaluation of suppliers corresponds to the principles of Supply Chain Management and “Seven Right Rule”?  Which of the MCDM/A methods should be applied to the evaluation of suppliers? Keywords: Multiple Criteria Decision Making/Aiding; Evaluation and Selection of Suppliers; Supply Chain Management; Multiple Criteria Ranking Problem


234


A bilevel mathematical programming model to optimize the design of cycle paths Iñaki Gaspara,*, Juan Benaventea, María Bordagaraya, Jose Luis Mouraa, Ángel Ibeasa a

GIST – University of Cantabria, E.T.S. Ingenieros de Caminos, Canales y Puertos. Avda. Los Castros s/n, Santander 39005, Spain

Abstract – Paper 374 In this article, we present a methodology to simultaneously modelize car, bus, and bicycle transport modes, considering the interactions among the three modes through the modelling of the modal split and the network assignment of the different travels of each mode. Later, this model was utilized to optimize the design of cycling paths network to achieve an efficient and sustainable transport system. The proposed methodology has two levels. In the lower level there is a transport network, over which cars users, bus passengers and bicycles users could be simulated at the same time Applied to this is a combined model (modal split-assignment model) with its inputs come from a global matrix (car, bus and bicycle trips). The Multinomial Logit model for modal split and network assignment models will follow an iterative process, to provide the final matrices and service variables for each mode of transport. Finally, in the upper level, an optimization model has been developed, based on bilevel mathematical programming. The objective is to optimize the design of cycling paths, determining which typology of bike lane will be the optimal for each street. For this specific model, we considered only three typologies (segregated, non-segregated, and no bike lane). The optimization criteria utilized aims to maximize the number of cycling users. These have been applied to the real scenario of the city of Santander (Spain). Keywords: Transport planning; cycle paths; optimization; sustainable mobility; mathematical programming;

* Presenting author E-mail address: iñ[email protected]

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Optimal train dispatching in Main-line with complex stations: the case of Tiburtina and Monfalcone stations. M.Bocciad, S.Fogliettaa,b, *, G.Leob, C.Manninoc, P.Perticarolib a

University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy b Optrail s.r.l., Rome, Italy c SINTEF ICT, Oslo, Norway d Università del Sannio, Benevento, Italy

Abstract 377 An impressive number of journal articles on automatic train dispatching appeared in the past years, including many works exploiting some exact or heuristic optimization. Despite of this blooming, very few automatic dispatching systems are actually in operations in main line or mass transit networks, mostly devoted to simple tasks in small lines. In this work we describe a recent implementation of a real-time dispatching system monitoring and controlling trains (Traffic Regulation) for two large stations, namely Roma Tiburtina and Monfalcone (multi-ACC station). The system is scheduled to be in operation in Monfalcone station by October 2015, and in Roma Tiburtina by December 2015. In order to introduce redundancy, increase reliability and ensure high quality solutions, two different algorithms have been designed and implemented. The system performs a parallel computation providing two solutions, which are respectively based on a heuristic and an exact method. The exact algorithm is an ad hoc branch-and-bound which does not make use of commercial solvers, a strict requirement from the interlocking system provider. The algorithm embeds novel branching and bounding ideas. Traffic Regulation (TR) is crucial component of traffic management systems. It supports or directly performs the supervision and control of train movements in railway networks. TR establishes how to manage railway traffic in order to improve the overall performances on the network. Train movements are controlled in real-time in order to reduce deviation from the official timetable and prevent knock-on delays, as well as to improve the quality of the services. In particular, TR is in charge to: regulate and coordinate trains in different controlled areas; satisfy safety, service and operational requirements; regain or maintain punctuality; predict and solve conflicts in accessing railway resources, such as tracks and platforms. All these functionalities are realized by exploiting a graph-theoretical model which accurately represents the real traffic problem. Train movements and controls, operating restrictions and traffic preferences are all embedded in the model. As the input situation changes quickly over time, the solution algorithms must be iteratively invoked with updated train positions and network status. Solutions are provided in very stringent computing time, at most a few seconds, as imposed by the application. More specifically, the solution algorithms find suitable routes and schedules for the movements of trains in stations, so as to minimize operational costs depending on the deviation from the timetable. Computational experience on the real-life instances generated at Roma Tiburtina and Monfalcone shows that both methods are able to provide either good or optimal solutions in very short time (less than a second on average). Keywords: Real-Time Railway Traffic Control; Train Management System; Job-Shop Scheduling; Combinatorial Branch&Bound; Heuristic method;


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Design of Passenger Public Transportation Solutions Based on Autonomous Vehicles and Their Multiple Criteria Comparison with Traditional Forms of Passenger Transportation Jacek Żaka and Łukasz Owczarzakb * a

Poznan University of Technology, Faculty of Machines and Transportation, Logistics Division; 3 Piotrowo street, 60-965 Poznan, Poland b Poznan University of Technology, Faculty of Engineering Management; 11 Strzelecka street, 60-965 Poznan, Poland

Abstract – Paper 378 In this paper, the authors present their concept of public transportation on demand based on autonomous vehicles. They develop several passengers’ transportation solutions based on driverless vehicles and compare them with traditional forms of passenger transportation (tram, bus, taxi and individual car). The authors carry out a multiple criteria evaluation of all eight considered variants. They formulate the decision problem as a multiple criteria ranking problem. Thus, a consistent family of evaluation criteria is constructed. It includes the following measures: travel time, travel costs, comfort of travel, reliability (timeliness and availability), accessibility, utilization costs, environmental friendliness, safety. Based on the analysis of stakeholders’ interests the model of preferences is defined. It is composed of two major elements: importance of criteria and sensitivity of the decision maker (DM) towards changes of the criteria values. A series of computational experiments is performed. In the computational phase a multiple criteria ranking method – Electre III/IV is applied. As a result final ranking of all considered variants – transportation solutions is generated and demonstrated in the paper. The position of variants based on autonomous vehicles is thoroughly discussed. Keywords: autonomous (driverless) vehicles; public passenger transportation on demand; multiple criteria evaluation


237


Application of AHP and ELECTRE III/IV Methods to Multiple Level, Multiple Criteria Evaluation of Urban Transportation Projects Mirosław Kruszyńskia* and Jacek Żakb a Poznan University of Technology, Faculty of Engineering Management; 11 Strzelecka street, 60-965 Poznan, Poland Poznan University of Technology, Faculty of Machines and Transportation, Logistics Division; 3 Piotrowo street, 60-965 Poznan, Poland

b

Abstract – Paper 379 In this paper the authors carry out a multiple level, multiple criteria evaluation of 18 urban transportation projects. At each level of the hierarchical decision problem different multiple criteria ranking sub-problems have been structured and solved with the application of AHP method, ELECTRE III/IV method and their combination (AHP/ELECTRE III/IV). Thus, the computational phase allowed two tests the above mentioned multiple criteria ranking methods, i.e.: AHP and ELECTRE III/IV and analyze their suitability for performing a multiple level, multiple criteria evaluation of transportation projects. Due to axiomatic differences between methods alternative aggregation formulas of the generated rankings by ELECTRE III/IV and AHP methods have been proposed. A multi - aspect discussion and comparison of generated results and applied methods have been presented. Keywords: multiple criteria decision making/aiding; AHP and Electre III/IV methods; multiple level, multiple criteria evaluation of transportation projects


238


Using PROMETHEE and AHP in a Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA): methodological adaptations and visualizations Macharis Cathy a,b,c,*, Van Raemdonck Koen a,b,c, Hadavi Sheida a,b,c a

Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 5, 1050 Brussels, Belgium BUTO (Business Technology and Operations) Department, Pleinlaan 5, 1050 Brussels, Belgium c Mobi(Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology Research Centre) Research Group, Pleinlaan 5, 1050 Brussels, Belgium b

Abstract – Paper 381 The multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) is a methodology that enables the evaluation of different options by including explicitly the goals of the stakeholders. The MAMCA method has already proven its effectiveness in evaluating complex sustainable mobility and transport policy decisions in many past and currently ongoing research projects. The MAMCA can be seen as an extension of the traditional multi criteria analysis methods. In the eighties and nineties, many of these methods were already extended towards a group decision support setting. For instance, the PROMETHEE and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods have been extended in former research projects. Within GDSS, the idea was to come as a group to a decision and for the whole group common criteria set was used. Within the MAMCA we use for each stakeholder group a specific criteria set. In this paper, we show how PROMETHEE and AHP were adapted to come to a multi actor view and which extra visualizations were created in order to allow for a better analysis. A newly developed MAMCA software, an interactive web tool, will be shown together with several applications in the field of transport appraisal. Keywords: Transport Project Appraisal, Multi Actor Multi Criteria Analysis, Decision Making


239


Modeling market concentration on Intermodal Freight Transport Networks Hamid Saeedia,* , Bart Wiegmansa, Rob Zuidwijka a

Faculty of Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 386 This paper models the market concentration of intermodal freight transport (IFT) on networks. Our proposed method decomposes the overall IFT market into a number of sub-markets. These sub-markets feature homogeneous demand and supply of transport services, so that the market concentration can be defined, while using established methods from the economics literature, by specifying the relevant market, market players, and their market shares. A sub-market provides transshipment, preand end-haulage, main haulage, or forwarding services. By making use of the results from network theory, in particular the wellknown max flow – min cut theorem, we are able to raise the definition of market concentration to the network level. Furthermore, the method is applied to a simple but representative example of an IFT network. The findings reveal that concentrations inside different IFT sub-markets are closely related to each other, and an increase in the degree of concentration of one sub-market, as a result of merger (or acquisition), could lead to an increase in concentration inside other sub-markets. Keywords: Intermodal freight transport, Market concentration, Transport networks


240


Traffic flow within a two-dimensional continuum anisotropic network K.S. Sossoe a, J.P. Lebacque b, A. Mokrani b, H. Haj-Salem b,* a

b

IRT SystemX, 8 avenue de la vauve, 91120 Palaiseau, France IFSTTAR, 14-20 Boulevard Newton Cité Descartes, Champs sur Marne F-77447 Marne la Valle Cedex 2, France

Abstract – Paper 387 In the field of transportation networks modelling, large surface networks are considered. A new trend has emerged in the modelling of large and dense traffic networks. That is the modelling framework at two-dimensional scale for network flows computing. The idea of this modelling is to aggregate the network links as a continuous medium, where road traffic flows as a fluid on a surface. This technique is used to reduce the large number of parameters and variables, and the significant computational efforts involved by network flow computing based on macroscopic traffic flow models for large and dense networks. We present a network pattern corresponding to network flows modelling with a few network sensors of traffic account locations. We manage and evaluate traffics on wide and dense networks with a minimum of available measurements and data, through modelling of global behaviour based on local behaviours. Each area of the network is considered as a continuum media, in which cars circulate in preferred directions of propagation, giving to the network an anisotropy property. Based on the intersection theory, we express conservation of the traffic at points of the road sections. The cells of the network mesh have geometric parameters such as lane density, average number of lanes in each considered direction of propagation, ensuring the accuracy of this continuum approximation. Since these parameters may differ from one cell to another, we observe jump conditions at cell interfaces, whereas additional relationships have been defined. Since the trajectory of flows is not necessarily normal to cell interfaces, certain relations at the interface are split based on conservation laws on transversal and tangential directions, according to the physics of the traffic. We find that multidimensional hyperbolic conservations laws govern the traffic at this scale. Godunov-type method has been proposed to compute the network flow flux across computational domains. We deal with an example of the simplified road network of the city of Paris as a case study of the proposed model, and provide an example of road network modelling with a two-dimensional dynamical traffic flow pattern. Keywords: dense network of large surface; continuum anisotropic network; two-dimensional traffic flow; multidimensional hyperbolic PDEs system; finite volume method


241


Modelling the Onset of Congestion due to Stochastic Behavior of the Components of the Railroads System Pierre-Antoine Cuniasse a,b, Christine Buissonb,*, Joaquin Rodriguez c, Emmanuel Teboul a, David De Almeida d a: Transilien-SNCF, 34 rue du commandant Mouchotte, 75014 Paris, France b: LICIT ENTPE-IFSTTAR, rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin, France c: ESTAS IFSTTAR 20, rue Élisée Reclus 59666 Villeneuve d'Ascq, France d: Direction de la Recherche et de l’Innovation, SNCF, rue des Terroirs de France, 75012 France.

Abstract – Paper 388 Delays appear frequently in the railroads system and the train schedule is not respected. Therefore it is hard to convince new travelers to shift from individual car to a more energy-efficient system like railways. The philosophy of the paper is to inspire itself from the road traffic approach. In this area, congestion is defined as the state where the cars are impede to drive at their desired speed. Therefore, we name “congestion” the state of the railroad system where the speed of at least one train is limited due to a presence of a preceding train in the second block ahead. Congestion onset lead to delays which impede too often the well-functioning of the railroad systems. Recently, some researches permitted to shed some light on the knock-on delay generation phenomenon. Those authors inspire themselves of a tool used in biodynamic and financial statistics: phase type distributions. They do not examine the primary delay generation. The main originality of our paper compared to those previous papers, is twofold. First, we use the phase type distribution formalism not at local train level but at a global scale. Second, we focus on the probability of the congested state to appear. We begin with the microscopic stochastic approach of a simplistic case: a carrousel with blocks of constant size and no stations. The model is based on four forces. In this oversimplified case, we show that the random force leads to a reduction of at least one train speed in a family of cases resulting of a combination of the train density, the amplitude of the random force and the maximal speed. From this individual modelling we derive a global formulation, in the phase type distribution framework. This general formula permits to express the probability of congestion appearance as a function of the three parameters previously identified. The questions open by this work are numerous: for example we will examine in the complete paper impact of stations, impact of non-uniform space characteristics (length of trains, distances between stations and length of blocks). Another question is the link and difference between congestion defined as above and train delays which is of use by railroad operators. Congestion may induce delays, but they are certainly some cases where congestion is not resulting in delays. This question is linked with the resiliency of the railroad system. Keywords: railroad; modelling; congestion; delay; stochastic.

*


242


Optimization approach to motorway toll pricing Zeferino, J.A.a,b, *, Jorge, D.R. a,c, Antunes, A.P. a,c, Gomes, A.R. a a

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, Polo II, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal. MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, University of Coimbra, Polo II, 3004-517 Coimbra, Portugal c CITTA – research center for territory, transports and environment, University of Coimbra, Polo II, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal. b

Abstract – Paper 389 Transportation infrastructures such as motorways are essential to respond to travel demand and also to stimulate economic and social development. Investments in the construction of new highways to improve a country’s transportation network will lead to lower vehicles operating costs and travel times, and should increase travel demand. The large capital and maintenance costs of motorways can be funded by taxes or tolls. These tolls are usually defined at national level taken into account the expected traffic and its subsequent revenues. The impact of tolls in the generalized costs of travel is often neglected, and the traffic on the new toll motorway may actually be reduced below the break-even point where the benefits of the new infrastructure outweigh its costs. In addition, this may result in the opportunity loss for important economic and social development that could be fostered by the new infrastructure. In this paper we propose an optimization-based approach for addressing the motorway toll pricing problem. In a first stage, the mobility pattern of the region under study is assessed through the well-known four-step transportation model. The explanatory variables of travel demand are identified, including tolls, which are embedded in the generalized costs of travel. The calibration of the model is carried out using traffic counts (as origin-destination travel data rarely exist), using a particle swarm algorithm to determine the model parameters that minimize the deviation between the observed traffic and the modeled traffic in the segments of the road network for which traffic counts are available. In the second stage of the approach, the impact of toll variation on traffic is assessed. A set of different toll values is considered, and the toll to apply to each (tolled) motorway segment is determined through an optimization model. The objective of this model is to maximize the aggregate accessibility to the urban centers served by the road network while ensuring that the net revenues obtained from tolls are kept above given levels (at least, they should not decrease from the current level) and that the accessibility gains are equitably distributed across the urban centers. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated for a case study involving the Portuguese main road network. Keywords: tolls; optimization; road network; metaheuristic


243


Integrated Signal Control and Route Guidance based on BackPressure Principles Henk Taale a,b,*, Joost van Kampen a, Serge Hoogendoorn a a

b

Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5049, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat & TrafficQuest, P.O. Box 7007, 2280 KA Rijswijk, The Netherlands

Abstract – Paper 390 Traffic signal control and route guidance are the oldest and most applied dynamic traffic management measures. Most of the time they operate in a local mode, although there is trend toward network-wide traffic management. For traffic signal control already several network systems existed, but so far the integration with route guidance is lacking. In this paper we describe a new strategy to integrate traffic signal control and route guidance, based on the principles of back-pressure control. The algorithms developed are tested in a theoretical network and it was shown that traffic signal control based on back-pressure control performs well. Using back-pressure for route guidance required some assumptions which are open for debate. The results show that the average density is not such a good measure for route pressure and that travel time as a pressure variable performs better. A combination of factors of pressure based on density and travel time seems to be the best choice. Using back-pressure for both signal control and route guidance gave promising results, although the differences with optimized local control were small. Future research is recommended on the fine-tuning of the back-pressure traffic signal model, and on further integration and coordination of the control strategies. On the part of route guidance, finding representative route pressure values and making the model applicable of larger networks requires more research. Keywords: traffic signal control; route guidance; traffic modelling; back-pressure


244


Exploring train passengers’ arrival rate using smart card data Neema Nassira, Mark Hickmana, *, Hasti Tajtehranifardb, Oded Catsc and Masoud Fadaie Oshyanid a University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane QLD 4000, Australia c Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands d Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

b

Abstract – Paper 391 In the context of public transport, passengers’ arrivals at a station can indicate their perception of the transit system’s reliability, as well as the extent to which they consult timetables in journey planning. Moreover, the arrival rate is an essential element in determining passenger waiting time at a station, which itself is a critical component of the level of service in public transit journeys. Despite the significance of the passenger arrival rate, researchers often make simplistic assumptions about passenger arrivals in the majority of the literature. In high frequency routes, for instance, passengers are usually assumed to arrive uniformly at the stops without consulting the timetable; in low frequency routes, the arrivals are usually assumed to be mainly concentrated around the scheduled departure times. These assumptions can be validated with on-site manual data collection, but these can be costly and intractable to apply to network-level studies. Consequently, the primary objective of this paper is to develop a more comprehensive methodology for capturing passengers’ arrival distributions, using the numerous boarding records available from transit smart card data. To serve this purpose, boarding data from a selected set of train stations are extracted from the smart card dataset of Southeast Queensland in Australia. This study analyses how passenger arrival patterns vary as a function of service frequencies. It is hypothesized that there is a threshold where a random arrival regime gradually transforms into a timetable coordination arrival pattern. Furthermore, this threshold is a random variable that varies in the population and results with mixed regimes for intermediate ranges of headways. The dataset includes services with headways ranging from 5 to 60 minutes and hence facilitates this analysis. Furthermore, since no real-time information is available to passengers in Southeast Queensland, it is assumed that passengers only consult fixed timetables to arrive at stops. Therefore, the passenger arrival rate is assumed to be a function of the given headway. Keywords: Passenger arrival pattern, transit smart card data, transit assignment


245


Index by Paper with Schedule and Room ID

Title

Day

3

GPS-Data Analysis of a Free-Floating Bike Sharing 15-Wed 08:30System and Application of a Relocation Strategy 10:10

CZ A

7

Matching the Airport Runway Capacity to Demand: 15-Wed 08:30Analysis and Modelling some Solutions 10:10

SZ

8

Paving the way for superstar-destinations: models of 15-Wed 14:00convex demand for quality 15:40

SZ

9

Customer Survey Results of a free-floating Bike Sharing 15-Wed 08:30System in Germany 10:10

CZ A

10

Finding Robust Solutions to the Flight to Gate 15-Wed 08:30Assignment Problem using Flight Presence Probabilities 10:10

SZ

11

Assessment of PM10 inhalation in daily commutes: case- 16-Thu study of students in Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon

10:3012:10

CZ A

14

Exploring New Routes with the Belly: The Airline Route 14-Tue Development Problem

14:0015:40

SZ

16

Modelling of accelerometer data for travel mode detection 15-Wed 10:30by hierarchical application of binomial logistic regression 12:10

CK 3

18

Impacts on land use characteristics from ferry 14-Tue replacement projects. Two case studies from Norway

SZ

19

Bus lanes, boarding and headway holding – results and 15-Wed 14:00validity of a simulation assessment tool 15:40

CZ A

20

E-grocery and last mile logistics: do we need a supply- 14-Tue chain reference model?

16:0017:40

CZ B

22

The role of accessibility and connectivity in mode choice. 16-Thu A structural equation modeling approach.

10:3012:10

CZ C

23

Predicting travel mode of individuals using machine 16-Thu learning methods

10:3012:10

CZ C

24

A Search for Factors that Stimulate Car Drivers to change 16-Thu from Car to Carpool in City Center oriented Work Trips

08:3010:10

CZ C

25

Comparison of particulate matter inhalation for users of 16-Thu

10:30-

CZ A

247

Time

11:2013:00

Room


ID

Title

Day

Time

Room

different transport modes in urban areas

12:10

27

Optimal Investment into the Expansion of Railway 16-Thu Networks – A Case Study for Germany

14:0015:40

CZ B

28

Evaluation of drivers’ responsiveness to an intelligent 16-Thu electronic advice of traffic code violation

08:3010:10

SZ

29

Tariff zone planning for public transport companies

32

Maintenance Scheduling in Rolling Stock Circulations in 16-Thu Rapid Transit Networks

08:3010:10

CZ B

34

Locating and Designing a Biorefinery Supply Chain in 15-Wed 10:30Navarre under uncertainty: an Stochastic Facility 12:10 Location Problem Case

CZ B

36

Functional relationship between the runway system and 15-Wed 08:30apron/gate area under different demand characteristics 10:10

SZ

37

Bi-level optimization in the context of intermodal pricing: 15-Wed 10:30a state of art. 12:10

CZ B

38

Model predictive control for motorway traffic with mixed 14-Tue manual and VACS-equipped vehicles

11:2013:00

CZ B

43

Managing European Air Traffic Control Provision: a 14-Tue Network Congestion Game

16:0017:40

SZ

46

Assessing the effect on network observability of route 14-Tue information applied in sensor location problems

14:0015:40

CZ D

47

Using Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation Model to 14-Tue Estimate the Regional Impacts of High-Speed Rail in Spain

11:2013:00

SZ

48

AFEX: An autonomous freight exchange concept

15-Wed 10:3012:10

CZ B

52

Trip pricing of one-way station-based carsharing 15-Wed 14:00networks with zone and time of day price variations 15:40

CZ C

54

A mixture latent Markov model to capture heterogeneity 15-Wed 14:00in people’s over-time transition patterns between mono15:40

SZ

248

15-Wed 14:0015:40

CZ A


ID

Title

Day

Time

Room

and multimodal travel patterns 55

A systematic review of multi-criteria decision-making 14-Tue applications in reverse logistics

11:2013:00

CZ A

56

A preliminary analysis over the factors related with the 15-Wed 08:30possession of an electric bike 10:10

CZ A

57

A new variant of discretized LWR model to reproduce 14-Tue capacity drop

14:0015:40

CZ D

62

Peak-load pricing for Management system

Traffic 14-Tue

16:0017:40

SZ

64

Using genetic algorithms to solve large scale airline 14-Tue network planning problems

14:0015:40

SZ

67

Analysis of AHP methods and the pairwise majority rule 14-Tue (PMR) for collective preference rankings of sustainable mobility solutions

14:0015:40

CZ A

68

Assessing the Sustainability Impact of Variable Speed 15-Wed 10:30Limit Under Connected Vehicle Environment 12:10

CZ D

70

Lane distribution estimation for heterogeneous traffic 14-Tue flows

11:2013:00

CZ D

73

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), or multi-criteria decision- 14-Tue making (MCDM) or both: politicians’ perspective in transport policy appraisal

16:0017:40

CZ A

74

Time Series Analysis of Booking Data of a Free-Floating 15-Wed 14:00Carsharing System in Berlin 15:40

CZ C

75

Delay Management in Public Transportation: Service 16-Thu Regularity Issues and Crew Re-scheduling

08:3010:10

CZ A

76

Travel time estimation between loop detectors and FCD. 15-Wed 10:30A compatibility study on the Lille network, France 12:10

CK 3

78

Valuation of travel attributes for using automated vehicles 14-Tue as egress transport of multimodal train trips

14:0015:40

CZ B

82

Agent-based modelling of traffic behaviour in growing 16-Thu metropolitan areas

14:0015:40

SZ

the

European

249

Air


ID

Title

83

Day

Time

Room

A new node model based on CTM-UT with capacity 16-Thu determination

08:3010:10

CZ D

84

Estimation of Delay at Signalized Intersections by Using 14-Tue Differential Evolution Algorithm

14:0015:40

CZ D

85

A Routing Filter for the Real-Time Railway Traffic 16-Thu Management problem based on Ant Colony Optimization

10:3012:10

CZ B

87

Quantifying the relationship between saturation rate and 16-Thu emissions in different roundabouts’ layouts

10:3012:10

CZ A

88

Cycling mobility – A Life Cycle Assessment based 16-Thu approach

14:0015:40

CZ A

92

On the relationship between the built environment, 14-Tue driving behavior and energy consumption in electric car driving

11:2013:00

SZ

94

Monotonous simulated driving, driving experience, and 16-Thu low doses of alcohol: behavioral, subjective and psychophysiological measures

14:0015:40

CZ C

96

Modeling of shared spaces with multi-modal traffic using 16-Thu a multi-layer social force approach

14:0015:40

SZ

97

The influence of users’ route choice for the dynamic 16-Thu travel demand estimation

10:3012:10

CZ C

98

Utilization of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces in 16-Thu dynamic discrete choice models: An application to the high-speed railway timetabling problem

08:3010:10

CZ B

99

Procedural Modelling of Urban Land Use and Road 14-Tue Networks

11:2013:00

SZ

10 0

Multi-criteria optimization for joint maintenance and 14-Tue spare part provisioning system: a simulation study

16:0017:40

CZ A

10 1

Model-based Estimation of Private Public Charging 16-Thu Demand

14:0015:40

CZ A

10 2

A traffic enforcement camera operational model

16:0017:40

CZ A

250

14-Tue


ID

Title

10 8

Day

Time

Room

A new approach to crew scheduling in rapid transit 16-Thu networks

14:0015:40

CZ B

11 0

Logistical accessibility solutions alternative routes in 14-Tue mineral exploration area in the Amazon: the use of simulation models

11:2013:00

CZ A

11 2

User group evaluation based on survey data

15-Wed 10:3012:10

CK 3

11 6

Traffic indicators, accidents and rain: some relationships 15-Wed 08:30calibrated on a French urban motorway network. 10:10

CZ D

11 8

Assessing the Impact of Facility Locations and Fleet Sizes 16-Thu on the Performance of Automated Mobility on Demand Systems

08:3010:10

CZ C

12 0

A Fuzzy Logic-Based Accidents Detection System Using 16-Thu Traffic Data

08:3010:10

SZ

12 1

Optimal Critical Infrastructure Retrofitting Model for 14-Tue Evacuation Planning

11:2013:00

CZ C

12 2

On the Network-Wide Relationship between Average 16-Thu Flow, Exit Flow, and Input Flow

10:3012:10

CZ D

12 3

A qualitative model to evaluate the financial effects of 15-Wed 14:00innovations in the rail sector. 15:40

CZ B

12 4

Assessing the impact of air liberalisation using a long- 15-Wed 10:30term air passenger demand model 12:10

SZ

12 5

Comparison of two MCDM methodologies in aircraft 15-Wed 10:30type selection problem 12:10

SZ

12 7

Effect of Adverse Weather Conditions on Istanbul 15-Wed 10:30Motorways 12:10

CZ D

13 0

Railway infrastructure maintenance - a survey of planning 16-Thu problems and conducted research

14:0015:40

CZ B

13 1

Anticipatory service network design for bike sharing 16-Thu systems

08:3010:10

CZ C

13

Analyzing Traffic Patterns on Street Segments Based on 15-Wed 10:30-

CK 3

251


ID

Title

Day

Time

Room

2

GPS Data using R

13 3

A semi-decentralized control strategy for urban traffic.

14:0015:40

CZ D

13 4

Improving carsharing reservation systems by variable 15-Wed 10:30quality of service and relocations operations 12:10

CZ C

13 9

Development of Coordinated Ramp-Metering based on 15-Wed 08:30Multi-Objective Nonlinear Optimization Technique: 10:10 traffic and safety

CZ C

14 0

A new Agent-based model to simulate the impact on 16-Thu urban mobility of shared mobility systems with selfdriving vehicles

08:3010:10

CZ C

14 1

Interventions in urban bicycle infrastructure, lessons from 15-Wed 10:30Dutch and Danish cases 12:10

CZ A

14 2

Iterative optimization for adaptive anticipatory control in 15-Wed 08:30urban traffic networks 10:10

CZ D

14 4

FUSION OF TWO METAHEURISTIC APPROACHES 15-Wed 08:30TO SOLVE THE FLIGHT GATE ASSIGNMENT 10:10 PROBLEM

SZ

14 7

Analysis of Tradable Bottleneck Permits scheme when 16-Thu marginal utility of toll cost changes among drivers

08:3010:10

CZ D

15 0

Exploiting Travel Time Information for Reliable Routing 14-Tue in City Logistics

16:0017:40

CZ B

15 2

Microscopic traffic simulation of eco-driving systems 16-Thu using real-world vehicle models

14:0015:40

CZ A

15 3

Use of DEA and PROMETHEE II to assess the 14-Tue performance of older drivers

16:0017:40

CZ A

15 4

X2V-based information dissemination for highway 14-Tue congestion reduction

11:2013:00

CZ B

15 5

On the consistency between travelers’ satisfaction and 15-Wed 14:00utility: the case of the University of Luxembourg 15:40

SZ

15

A MIP Heuristic for Multi Port Stowage Planning

CZ C

12:10

252

16-Thu

14-Tue

16:00-


ID

Title

Day

7

Time

Room

17:40

15 8

Combined solution of capacity expansion and signal 14-Tue setting problems for signalized road networks

16:0017:40

CZ D

16 2

Design and implementation of a Dynamic Speed Limit 16-Thu System in Lille (A25 suburban motorway)

08:3010:10

SZ

16 5

Relation Between Land Use and Transportation Planning 14-Tue in the Scope of Smart Growth Strategies: Case Study of Denizli, Turkey

14:0015:40

CZ A

16 7

Growing from incipient to large cycle networks in hilly 15-Wed 10:30consolidated urban areas: the case of Lisbon 12:10

CZ A

16 9

Vehicle specific behaviour in macroscopic traffic 14-Tue modelling through stochastic advection invariant

16:0017:40

CZ D

17 3

Driving behaviour in case of authority transitions between 14-Tue Adaptive Cruise Control and manual driving

14:0015:40

CZ B

17 4

What about train length and energy efficiency of freight 16-Thu trains in rescheduling models?

10:3012:10

CZ B

17 6

Short-term strategies for Stochastic Inventory Routing in 16-Thu Bike Sharing Systems

08:3010:10

CZ C

17 7

Drivers’ compliance with real-time in-car route advice: a 16-Thu large-scale empirical evaluation perspective

08:3010:10

SZ

18 0

Designing optimal routes for different classes of 15-Wed 10:30cyclourists 12:10

CZ A

18 4

One-way carsharing: comparing station based and free 15-Wed 10:30float systems through agent-based modeling 12:10

CZ C

18 6

Aircraft Schedule Recovery Problem – A Dynamic 15-Wed 10:30Modeling Framework for Daily Operations 12:10

SZ

18 8

Periodic Capacitated Vehicle Distribution of Fuel Oils

Retail 14-Tue

16:0017:40

CZ C

18 9

Mesoscopic traffic state estimation based on a variational 14-Tue formulation of the LWR model in Lagrangian-space coordinates and Kalman filter

11:2013:00

CZ D

Routing

253

for


ID

Title

Day

Time

Room

19 2

Data fusion to improve data quality - Queue length 14-Tue estimation with loop detector data and FCD

14:0015:40

CZ D

19 4

Mathematical model for the study of relocation strategies 15-Wed 14:00in one-way carsharing systems 15:40

CZ C

19 5

A comprehensive framework for measuring performance 14-Tue in a Third-Party Logistics Provider

16:0017:40

CZ B

20 1

A bicycle demand model for a sample of Tehran, Iran

15-Wed 10:3012:10

CZ A

20 3

Strategic Multimodal model with endogenous demand 16-Thu choices and induced supply response

14:0015:40

SZ

20 5

A methodology for assessing the feasibility of fleet 16-Thu compositions with dynamic demand

08:3010:10

CZ B

20 6

A multiple criteria approach for evaluation of tunnel 14-Tue safety in Iran: A case study of Ardabil province

14:0015:40

CZ A

20 7

Developing passenger car equivalents for freeways using 14-Tue microsimulation

11:2013:00

CZ D

21 1

Analysis of driving behavior with information for passing 15-Wed 14:00through signalized intersection by driving simulator 15:40

CZ D

21 2

Mesoscopic multiclass traffic flow models: multilane 16-Thu modelling and application to diverge

CZ D

21 5

Attitudes towards congestion charging: results from a 15-Wed 14:00stated preference survey in Rome 15:40

SZ

21 6

A framework for solving Real-Time Multi-Objective VRP 14-Tue

11:2013:00

CZ A

21 7

Estimation of missing flow at junctions using control plan 16-Thu and floating car data

14:0015:40

CZ D

21 8

Extended BIP models for the multistage classification in 15-Wed 14:00marshalling yards 15:40

CZ B

21 9

An application of autonomous vehicles to road pavement 14-Tue test

CZ B

254

08:3010:10

14:0015:40


ID

Title

Day

Time

Room

22 4

A MIP Model to Optimize Real Time Maintenance and 15-Wed 10:30Relocation Operations in One-way Carsharing Systems 12:10

CZ C

22 5

The short-term car flow planning model in rail freight 16-Thu company – case study.

10:3012:10

CZ B

22 6

Impact of a cooperative traffic management on city 14-Tue logistic routing

16:0017:40

CZ B

22 9

Maximizing operational readiness in military aviation by 15-Wed 10:30optimizing flight and maintenance planning 12:10

SZ

23 2

Management of the access charges level for the use of 15-Wed 08:30railway infrastructure by bee colony optimization 10:10

CZ C

23 4

Performance assessment of turbo-roundabouts in corridor 16-Thu

10:3012:10

CZ D

23 7

Simulation of Offshore Supply Operations

14-Tue

16:0017:40

CZ C

23 8

Evaluation of intermediate stop operations in long-haul 14-Tue flights

14:0015:40

SZ

24 1

A robust framework for the estimation of dynamic OD 16-Thu trip matrices for reliable traffic management

14:0015:40

CZ D

24 2

Discharge Headway Model for Heterogeneous Traffic 15-Wed 14:00Conditions 15:40

CZ D

24 5

Understanding Travel Mode Choice to Special Events

24 7

Network strategies envrionment

16-Thu

14:0015:40

CZ C

competitive 14-Tue

14:0015:40

SZ

25 0

Airport Ramsey Pricing: Application to Airports in 14-Tue Taiwan

16:0017:40

SZ

25 1

Airport Marginal-Cost Pricing: Application to Airports in 14-Tue Taiwan

16:0017:40

SZ

25 2

A new approach to understand modal and pedestrians 16-Thu route choice in Portugal

14:0015:40

CZ C

for

airlines

in

255


ID

Title

Day

Time

Room

25 6

Expanding Route Generation Algorithm for Transit 16-Thu Network Design Using a Heuristic Method

08:3010:10

CZ A

25 7

Differences in Network Reliability Improvement by 15-Wed 10:30Several Importance Indices 12:10

CZ D

26 1

Simulation Model for Estimation of the Energy 16-Thu Consumption of an Electric Bus Line

14:0015:40

CZ A

26 7

New traffic light control strategy based on probe vehicle 16-Thu data

10:3012:10

CZ D

26 8

Simulating the Port Wet Infrastructure: Review and 15-Wed 08:30Assessment 10:10

CZ B

26 9

Conventional, cooperative and automated: a framework 14-Tue for the assessment of the intermediate period until future mobility

14:0015:40

CZ B

27 2

Influence of Lane and Vehicle Subclass on Free-flow 14-Tue Speeds for Urban Roads in Heterogeneous Traffic

11:2013:00

CZ D

27 6

Single wagon load production schemes optimization using 16-Thu WAGONSIM (agent-based simulation tool)

14:0015:40

CZ B

27 7

A real-time information system for public transport in 16-Thu case of delays and service disruptions

08:3010:10

CZ A

28 0

Bayesian networks for multimodal mode choice 16-Thu behaviour modelling: a case study for the cross border workers of Luxembourg

10:3012:10

CZ C

28 1

On the short-term prediction of traffic state: an 15-Wed 14:00application on urban freeways in Rome 15:40

CZ D

28 3

Optimizing the service zone location of electric automated 14-Tue taxis in train trip connection

11:2013:00

CZ B

28 4

Performance Evaluation Of Continuum Models’ 16-Thu Numerical Solutions In Short-Term Traffic Predictions

14:0015:40

CZ D

28 5

Quantifying the effects of activity concentration at 15-Wed 14:00airports on public transport using an iterative reduction 15:40 procedure

CZ A

256


ID

Title

Day

28 6

Optimization of the Crane Operations in Rail-Rail 15-Wed 08:30Transshipment Terminals 10:10

CZ B

28 7

Is a temporary change in mode choice a motivation to 16-Thu switch individuals travel behavior? Experiment with Electric Bicycles

10:3012:10

CZ C

28 8

Practical Macroscopic Evaluation and Comparison of 16-Thu Railway Timetables

08:3010:10

CZ B

29 0

Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Location Problem: The 14-Tue case of Thessaloniki

14:0015:40

CZ C

29 1

Application of analytic hierarchy process for the 14-Tue prioritization of pavement sections with multiple distresses

11:2013:00

CZ C

29 4

The problem of schedule offshore supply port operations

16:0017:40

CZ C

29 6

Enhancing the service quality of transit systems in rural 15-Wed 14:00areas by flexible transport services 15:40

CZ A

29 7

Modified Social Force Model for Pedestrian Walking 15-Wed 08:30Behavior at Sidewalks 10:10

CZ D

29 8

Are tech-friendly users keener on buying an AFV? 16-Thu Exploring future car purchase choice.

14:0015:40

CZ A

30 4

The Influence of Transportation Infrastructures and 16-Thu Mobility Patterns on the Evolution of Sprawl in Portuguese Medium Cities between 1991 and 2011

14:0015:40

SZ

30 5

Optimal location of bike-sharing stations

30 6

Combining multiple trips for empty minimization in a seaport environment

30 8

An efficient and realistic railway system simulator

10:3012:10

CZ B

30 9

Cost-benefit Analysis of a Simulated Carsharing System 15-Wed 10:30for the city of Lisbon 12:10

CZ C

257

14-Tue

Time

Room

15-Wed 08:3010:10

CZ A

movements 15-Wed 08:3010:10

CZ B

16-Thu


ID

Title

31 0

Day

Time

Room

Investigation on the Influence of Operational 16-Thu Characteristics on Safety Performance of Multilane Rural Highways

08:3010:10

CZ D

31 2

Memetic algorithm for computing shortest paths in 14-Tue multimodal transportation networks

14:0015:40

CZ C

31 3

Modelling passengers’ activity choices in airport terminal 16-Thu before security check: the case of Portela airport in Lisbon

14:0015:40

CZ C

31 5

Evaluation of incident management impacts using 14-Tue stochastic dynamic traffic assignment

16:0017:40

CZ D

31 9

Optimizing Emergency Transportation Multicommodity Quickest Paths

through 14-Tue

11:2013:00

CZ C

32 0

Strategic assessment of equity related problems of 16-Thu Lisbon’s mobility network

14:0015:40

SZ

32 2

Proposition of agent based simulation-optimization 14-Wed 8:30-10:10 CZ C heuristics to the bicycles repositioning problem bike sharing systems

32 4

Better convergence for dynamic traffic assignment 14-Tue methods

16:0017:40

CZ D

34 0

Decisions and Performance in Public Transport 15-Wed 14:00Management: Case Studies from Porto, Hamburg and 15:40 Dresden

CZ A

35 2

Adaptive Group-based Signal Control by Reinforcement 15-Wed 14:00Learning 15:40

CZ D

35 3

A Simulated Annealing Algorithm Applied to the Flood 14-Tue Emergency Evacuation Problem

11:2013:00

CZ C

35 4

The Effects of Autonomous Heavy-Duty Vehicle 14-Tue Platooning to Overall Traffic

11:2013:00

CZ B

35 5

Multi-Criteria Appraisal of Multi-Modal Urban Public 14-Tue Transport Systems

11:2013:00

CZ A

35 9

National and Regional Road Network Optimisation Using 15-Wed 10:30Mobile Phone Data 12:10

CK 3

258


ID

Title

Day

36 3

Inventory Location Problem with Risk Pooling Effect: A 15-Wed 08:30Performance Analysis Between Different Formulations 10:10

CZ B

36 9

Effect of traffic restrictions on urban air quality in a 16-Thu midsize city

10:3012:10

CZ A

37 0

Optimization approach to transit funding through parking 16-Thu fees

08:3010:10

CZ A

37 1

Optimization model for flexible carsharing systems 15-Wed 14:00planning 15:40

CZ C

37 2

Multicriteria evaluation of the impacts on drivers and 15-Wed 08:30pedestrians of implementing a transit system with full 10:10 priority in a congested, at grade intersection – a case study

CZ D

37 3

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE 14-Tue CRITERIA EVALUATIONS OF SUPPLIERS IN DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES

16:0017:40

CZ A

37 4

A bilevel mathematical programming model to optimize 14-Tue the design of cycle paths

14:0015:40

CZ C

37 7

Optimal train dispatching in Main-line with complex 15-Wed 14:00stations: the case of Tiburtina and Monfalcone stations 15:40

CZ B

37 8

Design of passenger public transportation solutions based 16-Thu on autonomous vehicles and their multiple criteria comparison with traditional forms of passenger transportation

08:3010:10

SZ

37 9

Application of AHP and ELECTRE III/IV methods to 14-Tue multiple level, multiple criteria evaluation of urban transportation projects

14:0015:40

CZ A

38 1

Using PROMETHEE and AHP in a Multi-Actor Multi- 14-Tue Criteria Analysis (MAMCA): methodological adaptations and visualisations

14:0015:40

CZ C

38 6

Modeling market concentration on Intermodal Freight 15-Wed 10:30Transport Networks 12:10

CZ B

38 7

Traffic flow within a two-dimensional continuum 16-Thu anisotropic network

CZ D

259

Time

10:3012:10

Room


ID

Title

Day

38 8

Modelling the onset of congestion due to stochastic 15-Wed 14:00behavior of the components of the railroads system 15:40

CZ B

38 9

Optimization approach to motorway toll pricing

15-Wed 08:3010:10

CZ C

39 0

Integrated Signal Control and Route Guidance based on 15-Wed 10:30Back-Pressure Principles 12:10

CZ D

39 1

Exploring train passengers’ arrival rate using smart card 16-Thu data

CZ A

260

Time

08:3010:10

Room


Notes

261


www.tristan-symposium.org

Bon dia dear colleagues, Bon Bini a ARUBA! We are pleased to invite you to participate in the ninth Triennial Symposium on Transportation Analysis (TRISTAN IX). TRISTAN is an international scientific conference that provides a high-quality forum for the presentation of mathematical models, methodologies and computational results, and for the exchange of ideas and scientific discussions on advanced applications and technologies in transportation. TRISTAN IX will be held June 13 through 17, 2016, on the island of Aruba. Located in the southern Caribbean Sea, Aruba is famous for its tropical climate, turquoise seas, white sandy beaches, and hospitable and vibrant culture. This “one happy island” aspires to be fully sustainable by 2020, and to this end is innovating its pedestrian, road, rail, maritime, and air transportation systems. To support this goal, we introduce the Green Transportation Award that will be granted to the paper that contributes most towards sustainable transportation.

We hope to welcome you at TRISTAN 2016. Ayo a Aruba! Andreas Hegyi, Bart van Arem, Adam Pel, Niels Agatz, Luuk Veelenturf, Alfredo Nunez, Nicole Fontein

Organised by Delft University of Technology in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam and Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands.

262

Program and Abstracts

Program and Abstracts

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