Understanding Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Large-Scale Power Failure Paul M. Chakalian1; Liza C. Kurtz; David M. Hondula
[email protected]
INTRODUCTION
RESULTS
On September 10, 2017 Hurricane Irma turned off power for 6.7 million Florida electricity customers1. Despite the growing risk of U.S. electrical grid failure from increasing physical and cyber threats, rising demand, aging infrastructure, and a warming climate2, there is very little understanding of household vulnerability to this hazard.
Early results demonstrate typical patterns of vulnerability emerged in Irma related power failures. Residents relied on material, social, and intellectual resources to protect themselves and recover from the negative effects of the hurricane and blackout.
Image 1. Neighborhood on the right did not lose power due to Hurricane Irma, the neighborhood on the left lost power for 7 days.
Older and poorer neighborhoods were more likely to have lost power due to Hurricane Irma than newer and wealthier neighborhoods (Image 1). We believe this trend was due to two factors: • Newer neighborhoods were more likely to have buried lines with increased resilience to hurricane damage. • Differences in neighborhood's material and social capital allowed higher capitalized neighborhoods to attain more resilient local electric grid infrastructure and faster repairs.
Figure 1. Annual Number of Major U.S. Electrical Grid Disturbances 1992–2016. Source: NERC Electric Disturbance Events (OE-417) Annual Summaries
The dominance of the respondent key word 'water' reflects it’s importance in day-to-day living as well as a strategy for staying cool, which is also demonstrated by the word 'ice’ (Figure 2). Many respondents noted the use of water or ice as their only options for cooling off. Keywords 'generator', and 'gas' were often coupled and both were essential strategies for adapting to the blackout. Other keywords reflect common interview themes and disaster theory. Figure 2. Adaptive Strategies & Capacities Words (rank/3179)
METHODS 2 counties
Forty-Two Households
21♂ 21♀ ~ $20,000-$40,000
Psychological Questionnaire
Semi-structured interview
Perceived Stress “Hope” — agency and pathways Exposure
KWIC Word Frequencies Value Coding
Ordinal Correlations Complete In Progress
Socioeconomic status (SES), income, and cash on hand were important factors in household resiliency (Figure 3). We theorized that structural constraints operate through psychological disposition, and hypothesized that SES would negatively correlate with our Perceived Stress Scale (PSS)3 scores (r = -.387, p ≤ 0.01) and positively with our Hope Scale4 scores (r = -.412, p ≤ 0.01).
• Interviews took place between October 27th and November 14th, 2017.
"I would have been more prepared but my paycheck didn't come until after the hurricane; I made it right before the hurricane was going to hit, by that time there was no supplies left. (Respondent H2111A)”
Adaptive Capacity Impacts
Thematic Content Analysis
Sampling • Interviews were conducted in Highlands and Orange Counties, Florida.
Vulnerability indicators Psychological Disposition
"It was really stressful because I have a one year old in the house and it's hot in there and you have no power. I'm using my battery for my car too much and the battery end up dying and I can't start it and it can't work. I just have to leave them with no clothes in the house and we all sleeping right here on the carpets because we can't sleep on the room, it's really hot. (Respondent O1838)”
• Households were geographically clustered at the census block level. • Clusters were systematically sampled to achieve a representative pool of respondents.
Figure 3. Financial Words (rank/3179)
DISCUSSION
• Only individuals living at home without power for at least 72 hours were eligible.
Value Codes Image 2. Lineman reconnects power
REFERENCES [1] Florida Division of Emergency Management, F. (2017). Outage Reports. [2] Van Vliet, Yearsely, Ludwig, Vogele, Lettenmaier, Kabat. (2012). Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change. Nature Climate Change [3] Cohen, Kamarck, Mermelstein. (1983). A global measure of perceived stress. Journal of Health and Social Behavior [4] Snyder, Sympson, Ybasco, Borders, Babyak, Higgins, Geen, Russell. (1996). Development and Validation of the State Hope Scale. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Residents with fewer material, social, and intellectual resources were less equipped to handle the negative effects of the storm and blackout, and consequently suffered worse. Respondents reported a loss of electrical power as the most significant cause for stress and discomfort following the storm, when compared with other storm related impacts. Respondents who reported higher levels of stress after the Hurricane and lower levels of agency and pathways thinking were of lower socioeconomic status; these households also suffered more negative health impacts. The use of psychometric instruments to measure the mediating effects of social structure on hazards outcomes is a new method for better understanding how more vulnerable populations come to experience worse outcomes. We are using our developing understanding of this event to better prepare households for future power outage events, and to better inform emergency managers about the potential roadblocks to preparedness — and to recovery — that many residents faced. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was funded in part by a grant from the University of Colorado Natural Hazards Center through its Quick Response Grant Program, which is funded by National Science Foundation grant number CMMI1030670, as well as with funding from the School of Human Evolution and Social Change at Arizona State University.
