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AN EVEN LESS CONVENIENT TRUTH: ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AN INTEGRATION OF COGNITION AND CULTURE by

Jordan Levine

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Interdisciplinary Studies)

THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver)

September 2014

© Jordan Levine, 2014

Abstract

‘Sustainable development,’ or how to achieve durably desirable states in our planet’s nested social-ecological systems, has been heralded by many as the core civilizational challenge of the 21st century. Adding to this challenge is the fact that the scientific study of how to model and manage such complex systems is confounded by a number of archaic intellectual legacies from predecessor disciplines. Chief among these is a relatively crude, low-resolution ‘rational actor’ theory of human behaviour, which lies in tension with a range of more recent, empirical insights regarding how humans absorb information, make decisions, and act, in situ. I argue that, while authors widely acknowledge the former theory to be insufficient, terminological inconsistencies and conceptual opacity have prevented the latter insights from being fully integrated into much sustainable development research. This dissertation aims to help bridge that gap on the level of both theory and practice. First, I present an accessible, original synthesis of cumulative recent findings on human cognition. This synthesis suggests a key object of analysis should be the particular ways in which people reduce the deep complexity of their social-ecological context into actionable information. I then apply this theoretical lens to the study of two areas designated by the UN as sites for experimentation with the concept of sustainable development: Mt. Carmel UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in Israel, and Clayoquot Sound UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in British Columbia, Canada. Both Mt. Carmel and Clayoquot Sound are reeling from major ecological shifts, and discordant multistakeholder relations. In my data chapters, I show that by (a) applying my synthesized theoretical lens to an analysis of how ii

the various stakeholders perceive their local context, and (b) adapting and combining a range of elicitation and analysis methods that heretofore have been applied in isolation, I am able to generate insights that have direct, actionable significance for the management of these sensitive, politically fraught social-ecological systems. I conclude with a discussion of implications, caveats, prospects of scalability, and suggestions for future research.

iii

Preface

The physical collection and collation of the interview data reported in this dissertation was done by me. The analysis of the data in this dissertation was also largely my own work, but I had considerable technical support from a number of people. Namely, Coral Kasirer assisted in analysis of all Hebrew-language print material, and Michael Muthukrishna collaborated with me on the statistical analysis of the Clayoquot Sound data (see Acknowledgements). Supervisors Dr. Kai M.A. Chan, and Dr. Terre Satterfield, played important roles as advisors throughout the process. However, unless otherwise stated, all other work described in this dissertation, from concept to completion, was entirely my own. The fieldwork I conducted both on the west coast of Vancouver Island and in northern Israel was explicitly approved by UBC’s Behavioural Research Ethics Board. The identifying number of the two Ethics Certificates we obtained for the research were H09-02523 and H1100835. The former pertained to an initial round of exploratory interview research I conducted in various locations on the west coast of Vancouver Island, while the latter pertained to the interviews I conducted in and around the two biosphere reserves, specifically.

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Table of Contents

Abstract ................................................................................................................................ ii Preface ................................................................................................................................. iv Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ........................................................................................................................ xi List of Figures ......................................................................................................................xiii List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................................xv Glossary .............................................................................................................................. xvi Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ xxii Dedication ........................................................................................................................ xxvii Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1

An even less convenient truth ......................................................................................................... 1

1.2

Why UNESCO biosphere reserves? .................................................................................................. 7

1.3

Structure of the dissertation .......................................................................................................... 14

1.3.1

Synthesizing a theoretical foundation ......................................................................................................14

1.3.2

Mt. Carmel UNESCO biosphere reserve ...................................................................................................16

1.3.3

Clayoquot Sound UNESCO biosphere reserve ..........................................................................................19

1.3.4

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................28

v

Chapter 2: From Rational Actor to Efficient Complexity Manager—exorcising the ghost of Homo economicus with a unified synthesis of cognition research ......................................... 29 2.1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 29

2.2

Spotting the ghost.......................................................................................................................... 32

2.3

A set of empirically-derived principles for a descriptive model of the human actor .................... 36

2.3.1

Cognition is triage: we are efficient within our computational, energetic and temporal limits ..............37

2.3.2

Different goals, different glasses: what we perceive is a function of our goals .......................................39

2.3.3

The emotional elephant and rational rider: emotions bound reason, not the inverse ............................40

2.3.4

Filter then fill-in-the-blanks: we mostly filter complexity and complete patterns ...................................42

2.3.5

Efficient cognition is distributed: the ‘elephant and rider’ belong to a herd ...........................................44

2.3.6

Heuristics are the rule, not the exception: brains are not lazy computers ..............................................45

2.3.7

Analogy as the unit of thought: the elephant rider navigates with maps ................................................47

2.3.7.1

Analogies are chosen by availability, associations, and contextual cues ........................................53

2.3.7.1.1

Availability ..................................................................................................................................53

2.3.7.1.2

Context and associative networks..............................................................................................54

2.4

A formalized synthesis: the efficient complexity manager (ECM) model...................................... 58

2.5

Conclusion...................................................................................................................................... 64

Chapter 3: The Salient Moustache and the Silent Majority—cognition, culture and (un)sustainable development in the Mt. Carmel UNESCO Biosphere Reserve ........................ 67 3.1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 67

3.2

Mt. Carmel UNESCO biosphere reserve......................................................................................... 68

3.3

Ignited tensions and fatalistic essentialisms.................................................................................. 72

3.4

Theorizing the growing impasse .................................................................................................... 74

3.5

Imagining the other: perceiving stagnation in Druze society ........................................................ 78

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3.6

Housing: a surprising diversity of opinions and rationales ............................................................ 80

3.7

A case of mistaken preferences ..................................................................................................... 85

3.8

Biosphere skepticism ..................................................................................................................... 86

3.9

Discussion: essentialisms, social cognition, and silence ................................................................ 88

3.9.1

Essentialisms are easy ..............................................................................................................................88

3.9.2

The salient moustache trumps the silent majority ...................................................................................90

3.9.3

The spiral of silence ..................................................................................................................................93

3.9.4

Stacked odds further bias social cognition ...............................................................................................95

3.10

Conclusion: cognition, affect and new avenues for research ........................................................ 97

Chapter 4: The Silence of the Goats—cognitive management of complexity and Israel’s 2010 Carmel disaster ................................................................................................................. 101 4.1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 101

4.2

The Carmel disaster ..................................................................................................................... 102

4.3

Mt. Carmel as a chessboard of identity politics........................................................................... 104

4.4

The analytical value of a cognitive lens ....................................................................................... 108

4.5

The Carmel disaster in public discourse: searching for a scapegoat .......................................... 109

4.5.1

4.6

Pointing the finger: “careless Druze,” “spiteful Arabs” and “bad Jews” ................................................110

Local actors’ causal narratives of the 2010 disaster .................................................................... 122

4.6.1

Israel Nature and Parks Authority: “too much ‘man,’ unwelcome pines, and disappearing goats” ......122

4.6.2

Jewish National Fund foresters: “too much biocentrism, not enough forestry and more disappearing

goats” 129 4.6.3

4.7 4.7.1

‘Isfiyya locals: “maybe God, maybe Satan and definitely Zionist discrimination” ..................................132

Mt. Carmel in historical context: from ancient fire-shaped hillside to European fantasy forest 136 Early history ............................................................................................................................................137

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4.7.2

Changing natures: Mt. Carmel in the modern period ............................................................................138

4.7.3

Zionism and the afforestation of pines: a mutually reinforcing cycle ....................................................143

4.7.4

The British in Palestine: copy, paste, colonize—and down with the goats ............................................147

4.7.5

Mt. Carmel after Jewish victory: from Druze means of production to Jewish State jewel ....................151

4.8

Discussion and implications ......................................................................................................... 155

4.9

Conclusion.................................................................................................................................... 163

Chapter 5: Sea Otters and White Men For The Win—demographic asymmetries in perceived benefits and losses under a trophic cascade in Clayoquot Sound ........................................ 165 5.1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 165

5.2

A trophic cascade in Clayoquot Sound UNESCO Biosphere Reserve ........................................... 168

5.3

Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 172

5.4

Results .......................................................................................................................................... 175

5.4.1

Logic of analysis ......................................................................................................................................175

5.4.2

To disaggregate or not to disaggregate ..................................................................................................177

5.4.3

Important species: kelp, kelp dwellers and the people who love them .................................................179

5.4.4

Food species: urchins are not for everyone, but neither are rockfish....................................................187

5.4.5

Valuable species: for money or love.......................................................................................................192

5.4.6

Ecologically valuable species: the great wall of kelp ..............................................................................198

5.4.7

Ecosystem service rankings: the world as an oyster, versus the world as a cloister ..............................203

5.4.8

The devil is in the (dis)aggregation .........................................................................................................209

5.5

Discussion .................................................................................................................................... 211

5.5.1

Consistently valued species: salmon, halibut, crab—then chaos ...........................................................212

5.5.2

Ecosystem services: categories by cognition not committee .................................................................213

5.5.3

Asymmetric benefits: perception, if not reality......................................................................................216

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5.6

Conclusion: where to now ........................................................................................................... 218

Chapter 6: Theories of the Deep—combining salience analysis and network analysis to compare cognitive models of a coastal Vancouver Island foodweb ..................................... 221 6.1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 221

6.2

Context: voracious otters, disappearing invertebrates, elusive finfish, and acrimony in Clayoquot

Sound 223 6.3

Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 227

6.3.1

Interviews ...............................................................................................................................................228

6.3.2

Salience analysis .....................................................................................................................................232

6.3.3

Network analysis ....................................................................................................................................234

6.4

Logic of group selection ............................................................................................................... 235

6.4.1

Patterns of difference in participants’ visual depictions of Clayoquot Sound........................................236

6.5

Species accessibility: you think plants, I think animals ................................................................ 242

6.6

Imagined foodwebs: representing aggregate mental models with salience analysis ................. 248

6.7

Imagined foodwebs: combining salience with network analysis ................................................ 255

6.7.1

Network analysis of imagined foodweb data: measuring and visualizing centralities ...........................255

6.7.1.1

Out-degree centrality: bigger text depicts a more voracious predator ........................................256

6.7.1.2

In-degree centrality: bigger circles depict more widely targeted prey .........................................256

6.7.1.3

Betweenness centrality: darker circles depict more crucial connectors ......................................257

6.7.1.4

Edge weight: bigger arrows depict greater cognitive accessibility ...............................................257

6.7.2

Government managers versus local civilians..........................................................................................259

6.7.3

Males versus females .............................................................................................................................265

6.7.4

First Nations versus non-First Nations....................................................................................................270

6.8

Summary discussion..................................................................................................................... 277

ix

Chapter 7: Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 283 7.1

From inconvenience to insight..................................................................................................... 283

7.2

From insight to action .................................................................................................................. 292

7.2.1

Gender ....................................................................................................................................................293

7.2.2

Communicating relevance ......................................................................................................................296

7.3

Closing thoughts .......................................................................................................................... 299

Works Cited....................................................................................................................... 304 Appendices ....................................................................................................................... 352 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................................ 352

x

List of Tables

Table 5.1

Important species (personal): general public (top 15) .......................................... 181

Table 5.2

Important species (personal): government managers (top 15) ............................ 181

Table 5.3

Important species (personal): females (top 15) .................................................... 184

Table 5.4

Important species (personal): males (top 15)........................................................ 184

Table 5.5

Important species (personal): First Nations (top 20)............................................. 186

Table 5.6

Important species (personal): non-First Nations (top 20) ..................................... 186

Table 5.7

Favourite food species: general public (top 10) .................................................... 188

Table 5.8

Favourite food species: government managers (top 10) ...................................... 188

Table 5.9

Favourite food species: First Nations (top 30) ....................................................... 190

Table 5.10

Favourite food species: non-First Nations (top 30) ........................................... 190

Table 5.11

Favourite food species: females (top 20) .......................................................... 191

Table 5.12

Favourite food species: males (top 20).............................................................. 191

Table 5.13

Valuable species: general public (top 15) .......................................................... 193

Table 5.14

Valuable species: government managers (top 15) ............................................ 193

Table 5.15

Valuable species: First Nations (top 15) ............................................................ 195

Table 5.16

Valuable species: non-First Nations (top 15) ..................................................... 195

Table 5.17

Valuable species: females (top 15) .................................................................... 197

Table 5.18

Valuable species: males (top 15) ....................................................................... 197

Table 5.19

Ecologically valuable species: general public (top 10) ....................................... 199

Table 5.20

Ecologically valuable species: government managers (top 10) ......................... 199 xi

Table 5.21

Ecologically valuable species: First Nations (top 10) ......................................... 200

Table 5.22

Ecologically valuable species: non-First Nations (top 10).................................. 200

Table 5.23

Ecologically valuable species: females (top 10) ................................................. 202

Table 5.24

Ecologically valuable species: males (top 10) .................................................... 202

Table 5.25

Important ecosystem services: general public (top 10) .................................... 204

Table 5.26

Important ecosystem services: government managers (top 10)....................... 204

Table 5.27

Important ecosystem services: First Nations (top 10) ....................................... 207

Table 5.28

Important ecosystem services: non-First Nations (top 10) ............................... 207

Table 5.29

Top 10 most valuable species for Clayoquot residents (aggregate)................... 210

Table 6.1

Most cognitively accessible species: civilian locals (top 10) .................................. 242

Table 6.2

Most cognitively accessible species: government managers (top 10) .................. 242

Table 6.3

Most cognitively accessible species: females (top 20) .......................................... 245

Table 6.4

Most cognitively accessible species: males (top 20) ............................................. 245

Table 6.5

Most cognitively accessible species: First Nations (top 20) .................................. 247

Table 6.6

Most cognitively accessible species: non-First Nations (top 20) ........................... 247

Table 6.7

Most cognitively accessible trophic relationships: civilian locals (top 15) ............ 249

Table 6.8

Most cognitively accessible trophic rel'ships: government managers (top 15) .... 249

Table 6.9

Most cognitively accessible trophic relationships: females (top 20)..................... 252

Table 6.10

Most cognitively accessible trophic relationships: males (top 20) .................... 252

Table 6.11

Most cognitively accessible trophic relationships: First Nations (top 30) ....... 254

Table 6.12

Most cognitively accessible trophic relationships: non-First Nations (top 30) . 254 xii

List of Figures

Figure 2.1 Abstracted schematic of the complexity-reduction process ...................................... 51 Figure 2.2 Typology of analogical representations ...................................................................... 52 Figure 2.3 Metaphorical representation of ‘Homo efficens’, the efficient complexity manager model of the human actor ............................................................................................................ 56 Figure 2.4 Sequential flow diagram of the efficient complexity manager (ECM) model ............ 64 Figure 3.1 Appearance of religious Druze versus secular Druze ................................................. 90 Figure 3.2 Appearance of Druze villages versus urban Haifa ...................................................... 94 Figure 4.1 Increasing conflation of multiple fire-related events and their causes in Israeli online print-media ................................................................................................................................. 119 Figure 4.2 Causal attributions of the events surrounding the 2010 fire in the online Israeli print media over time .......................................................................................................................... 121 Figure 4.3 Biblical landscape in the European imaginary, c. 1650, and an actual Palestinian landscape, c. 1866....................................................................................................................... 142 Figure 6.1 Sample output of a completed trophic connection task .......................................... 231 Figure 6.2 Sample depiction of local ambit: non-First Nations male ........................................ 239 Figure 6.3 Sample depiction of local ambit: non-First Nations female ..................................... 240 Figure 6.4 Sample depiction of local ambit: First Nations male ................................................ 241 Figure 6.5 Aggregate mental model of the regional foodweb: local civilians ........................... 261 Figure 6.6 Aggregate mental model of the regional foodweb: government managers............ 263 xiii

Figure 6.7 Aggregate mental model of the regional foodweb: males ....................................... 268 Figure 6.8 Aggregate mental model of the regional foodweb: females.................................... 269 Figure 6.9 Aggregate mental model of the regional foodweb: First Nations ............................ 272 Figure 6.10 Aggregate mental model of the regional foodweb: non-First Nations .................. 274

xiv

List of Abbreviations

•

CSBR:

•

ECM Model: ‘Efficient Complexity Manager’ Model

•

MAB:

Man and the Biosphere project

•

MCBR:

Mount Carmel Biosphere Reserve

•

MCNP:

Mount Carmel National Park

•

(I)NPA:

Israel Nature and Parks Authority

•

JNF:

Jewish National Fund (English name for KKL)

•

KKL:

Keren Kayemet L’Israel (Hebrew name for JNF)

•

UN:

United Nations

•

UNEP:

United Nations Environment Programme

•

UNESCO:

United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization

•

WCVI:

West coast of Vancouver Island

Clayoquot Sound Biosphere Reserve

xv

Glossary

•

Accessibility (cognitive):

the relative ease with which an object of mental attention is recalled.

•

Aggregate mental model:

the combined mental models (see Mental model) of two or more individuals who constitute a single analytical unit, but whose set of beliefs about the system in question may or may not be identical

•

Analogical representation:

a simplified, abstracted representation—often stored implicitly in one’s memory—of something one has encountered, or experienced. This representation is then used to make inferences about situations or things that seem analogous to the original object of representation (e.g., the mental map one uses to navigate through one’s city). See Figure 2.2 for a simple typology.

•

Availability (cognitive):

see Accessibility (cognitive).

•

Benefit transfer (method):

an economic valuation tool in which the already-quantified xvi

monetary benefits of one ecosystem function or feature are used as an approximation to infer the economic value of another one, elsewhere, that appears roughly similar to the first (e.g., approximating the value of a waterfall in Canada by drawing on valuations already conducted of waterfalls in the USA).

•

Biosphere reserve:

a protected area designated by UNESCO that contains a zone of legally-enforced environmental protection, as well as adjacent zones of human habitation and activity. A biosphere reserve’s purpose is to serve as a living ‘laboratory’ for experimentation with the concept of ‘sustainable development.’ There are currently 621 biosphere reserves located across 117 countries.

•

Contingent valuation:

a survey technique for approximating the economic value of something for which there is no clear market price. Respondents are often asked to state how much they ‘would be willing to pay’ in order to preserve a feature of the environment; e.g., a lake.

xvii

•

Cultural model:

a social group’s collective shared concept, either explicit or implicit, of how they imagine a particular system to function.

•

The Druze:

a small Arabic-speaking religious community that lives scattered across primarily the mountainous regions of the eastern Mediterranean. They practice an esoteric faith that broke from Shi’a Islam in 11th century, and which features a clear bifurcation between religious initiates (the minority) and their majority, non-initiated brethren.

•

Ecosystem services:

a term used to describe the various benefits that humans derive from their surrounding ecosystem; some definitions refer instead to the specific biophysical processes that render those benefits.

•

The embedding effect:

a phenomenon in environmental economics wherein, after survey respondents have valued one environmental good, they appear to undervalue subsequent equivalent goods, ‘embedding’ the value of the new good(s) in the original valuation (e.g., expressing a willingness to pay $X xviii

to preserve one lake, but