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Keywords: Mass Rapid Transit; Transit Ridership; Transit-Oriented Development; ... and security of supply” (2050 Energy Strategy; EU White Paper on Transport,.
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Transportation Research Procedia 24C (2017) 433–441 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

3rd Conference on Sustainable Urban Mobility, 3rd CSUM 2016, 26 – 27 May 2016, Volos, Greece

Shifting towards mass rapid transit in the Maltese islands Malcolm Cachiaaa*

a aUniversity

University of of Malta, Malta, Msida, Msida, MSD MSD 2080, 2080, Malta Malta

Abstract Abstract

Over the past 50 years, Malta’s transportation planning has been geared towards the private vehicle. This approach, coupled with a lack of investment in public transportation has permitted a population of just over 400,000 to go from 150,000 vehicles in 1990 to over 335,000 today (NSO, 2014). This has resulted in the detriment of urban spaces, congestion, noise, and high costs being incurred due to the dominance of vehicles, despite a highly dense population. Extensive research was therefore carried out in order to assess the possibility of introducing a mass rapid transit system for such a small catchment, and to determine whether the cost of implementing such a system is economically, socially and environmentally favourable. The research focused on studying the dynamics of the islands’ urban development through a comparative analysis of the urban development of other cities which were planned according to principles of transit-oriented development. In particular, the study analysed the development of the urban fabric, understanding demographic shifts, mapping origin-destination matrices and studying the properties of various transportation modes with the aim of creating a modal shift away from the private vehicle. The results of the research propose a network for a mass rapid transit system in Malta, which would form part of a multi-modal system designed to reduce the use of private modes of travel, mitigating social, economic and environmental costs through improved mobility and air quality. This paper will present a network together with the identification of strategic locations for stations within the Maltese urban fabric considering environmental implications while still allowing for further economic growth. © 2016 Published by B.V. © 2016 The The Authors. Authors. Published by Elsevier Elsevier B.V. © 2017 The under Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. committee of the 3rd CSUM 2016. Peer-review responsibility of the organizing Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee committee of of the the 3rd 3rd CSUM CSUM 2016. 2016. Keywords: Mass Rapid Rapid Transit; Transit; Transit Transit Ridership; Ridership; Transit-Oriented Transit-Oriented Development; Development; Urban Urban Form Form Keywords: Mass *Corresponding address. [email protected] *Corresponding author. author. E-mail E-mail address. [email protected]

1. Introduction Throughout all member states within the EU, 24.30% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originate from the transportation sector. From this percentage value, as illustrated by the figure below, road transport is responsible for 71.90% (Eurostat, 2012). A simple calculation can therefore conclude that road transport is responsible for 17.47% of total GHG Emissions.

2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 3rd CSUM 2016. 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.062

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Figure 1: EU GHG Statistics by Sector / by Transport Mode

The half-century, 2050, is being considered a benchmark year by most. In 2011, the EU White Paper on Transport listed a series of targets for cities to reach and surpass by 2050. The aim of these targets is to create a Europe which is no longer dependent on imported foreign oil supplies, instead exploring new methods for the transition of energy “while increasing competitiveness and security of supply” (2050 Energy Strategy; EU White Paper on Transport, 2011). In the case for transport in Malta, the Institute for Climate Change & Sustainable Development (ICCSD) at the University of Malta (UoM) has carried out a study on “the external costs of traffic and congestion in Malta.” In general, the study found that the main contributors to high levels of motorisation and car dependence were “changes to the socio-demographic fabric of the population, a lack of integration between land use and transport planning, a lack of investment in the public transport service, continued provision for road infrastructure and a relative dearth of policies aimed at promoting modal shift” (ICCSD, 2014). Through this study, the ICCSD has estimated an annual cost of €274M for accidents, air pollution, climate change, noise and congestion, rising to €317M by 2020 and €322M by 2030 in the event that no significant change is seen (ICCSD, 2014). This cost is no doubt directly affiliated with the level of car ownership, rising year-on-year. In fact, as of the fourth quarter of 2015, car ownership stands at 820 (Total Number of Vehicles /1000 inhabitants) and 650 (Number of Passenger Vehicles /1000 inhabitants) for the Maltese Islands (NSO, 2016). This research is therefore being compiled in order to investigate the potential of introducing a mass rapid transit (MRT) network, so as to reverse the negative effects being experienced and allow the islands to be developed more sustainably. This report is an extract from a dissertation presented to the UoM which has analysed and discussed a number of parameters dealing with urban transportation and its interaction with the population as well as phenomena of urban sprawl, principles of transit-oriented development (TOD) and studies of particular cities in which this approach has proved successful, investigating forms of MRT, and relating this information in application to the Maltese Islands. 2. Literature Review The concept of TOD, “first proposed by the American architect Calthorpe (1993), is to develop compact, mixeduse neighbourhoods around existing or new public transit stops offering frequent and high quality public transportation” as a means to “reduce car use” (De Vos, J. et al., 2014), “particularly [by] creating sustainable urban transport systems [which] are not car-dependant” (Bayramoglu Barman G., 2013). TOD works when “a percent of the total urban area lives within a 5-minute (400m) and 10-minute (800m) walking distance of transit stations”, referred to as acceptable access distances (Bandi et al., 1974; Vuchic VR, Newell GF., 1968; Vuchic, 2005; Laporte et al., 2011; Gutierrez, J. et al., 2011; Guiterrez-Jarpa, G. et al., 2013). The attractiveness for passengers to opt for rapid transit systems changes depending on the systems performance (Vuchic, 2005). An example of such is achieving a higher right of way (ROW) category, implying less obstacles for the system to navigate, resulting in an increased speed of operation and therefore also an increased likelihood that people will use the network. Land use is an important factor when planning for a MRT network to function through TOD. The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) “addresses development that maximises the benefits of public transit” in order to shift the focus of urban development’s back to the users (ITDP, 2015). It does this through the introduction of a series of objectives designed specifically to create a more liveable environment.

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Mass transit can be defined as any form of transportation serving more than a few passengers, or any mode of transportation which is available to the public such as trams, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Light Rail Transit (LRT), monorails, Automated Guideway Transit (AGT), metros as well as waterborne modes such as ferries (Vuchic, 2005). Prior to creating a network, alignments of specific case studies representing similar traits to the Maltese Islands were studied utilising computational efficiency measures for assessing MRT networks, which have been proposed by Laporte et al. (1997) and further reinforced in 2011 (Laporte et al., 2011). These computations make use of various criteria discussed by Vuchic in 1969 and more recently in 2005. Vuchic shows how the success of a network is measured through indicators of availability, complexity, connectivity and directness. Laporte et al. work adds ratios relating “passenger/network effectiveness” [λ] and “passenger/plane effectiveness” [Q] to these indicators (Laporte et al., 1997; Laporte et al., 2011), which have been used to measure the advantages of one configuration over another. The research indicates that “when a uniform origin-destination (OD) distribution is assumed,” triangular and cartwheel configurations are preferred to star and grid configurations for circular cities while “the half-radial and half-wheel configurations yield the best values of effectiveness for semi-circular cities” (Laporte et al., 1997; Guiterrez-Jarpa, G. et al., 2013). These ratios are based primarily upon the robustness of the network, defined as its ability to “react well to disruptions of links and stations” (Laporte et al., 2011; Gutierrez, J. et al., 2011). Within this study, these figures have served as a guideline not as a rule of thumb as Guiterrez-Jarpa et al. (2013) argues that “once a system is in place, people will tend to relocate over time in order to satisfy their travel requirements no matter what the shape [configuration] of the system is” (Guiterrez-Jarpa et al., 2013). Therefore, Malta was studied as an organism capable of adapting to changing scenarios. Figure 2(a) illustrates the zone which has been identified through this study to become the islands’ central business district (CBD) (marked in brown), pinning north and south urban cores represented in orange as well as the metropolitan zone which has been taken into consideration. Figure 2(b)(c)(d) illustrate the expected corresponding changes in population distribution and density together with employment respectively, projected to the year 2050.

(a)

(b) (c) (d) Figure 2: The Maltese Islands (a) CBD, Urban Centre and Metropolitan Area (b) Expected Employment 2050 (c) Expected Population 2050 (d) Expected Population Density 2050

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3. Methodology The data acquired during the literature review was used when creating the network configurations for the Maltese Islands, together with a comparative analysis by cross-referencing spatial form and demographics to transportation networks within selected cities. The aim of the research carried out in Phase One was to identify relationships between spatial forms and transportation networks in urban landscapes, cross-referencing the information received while studying the case of Malta, to identify how a transportation network, or rather a series of networks, could be applied within the Maltese Islands. The second phase of research took the best alignment which resulted from this analysis and through a process of elimination through a series of interviews with transport planners, informed decisions and deductive processes, the optimal network was found and assessed further, in a bid to shift travel dependency from the private vehicle to MRT. Once this network was finalised, the final step was to analyse various potential modes of MRT which may accommodate the alignments, with the final selection being cross-referenced with the expected demand through OD matrices. 4. Results The network configurations which this research paper has considered are as follows: half-wheel, half-radial and an elaborate triangular configuration. In the case of the first two options, Valletta, being the islands’ capital, is considered the primary node, with all routes converging to a central point. The comparative analysis served as a guide throughout the process. The demand analysis for the primary routes along the network was based on two factors: the case studies in order to identify the potential percentage modal split (Table 1) and create the scenarios and the expected growth which the island is expected to experience through a series of interviews conducted for this research with informed transport planners, the result of which is represented in Figure 4 and Table 2.

(a)

(b)

(c)

Figure 3: (a) Half-Wheel Configuration, Valletta Centre (b) Half-Radial Configuration, Valletta Centre (c) Triangular Configuration, Multiple Nodes (Author’s Own)

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Table. 1: Modal Split of Analysed Cities

100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

0%

MALTA

Zurich

Strasbourg

PRIVATE VEHICLE

Montpellier

WALKING

Linz

CYCLING

Rennes

Geneva

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Scenario 1 assumes no significant policy changes are made, hence the existing modal split shall remain unchanged. Scenario 2 assumes a framework which favours public transportation over the private vehicle, and pedestrianisation of urban cores making them more attractive for the people and allowing access for public transportation to operate freely within these urban cores. Scenario 3 is an improvement in circumstances when compared to Scenario 2. Where the width of the road is not sufficient due to Malta’s many winding roads, it is assumed that on-street parking would be removed to favour walkable spaces, extending further from the urban centre, in turn influencing the percentage of trips likely to be effected by the private vehicle. It is also being assumed that urban centres would develop in such a way so as to not require too much long distance travelling. Hence, from the case studies this research has investigated, the resulting percentages being assumed are shown in Table 3,4. Private Vehicle Public Transport Walking Cycling Figure 4: Demand Analysis Scenarios Illustrated Table 2: Percentage Modal Split Scenarios Transit Mode

Table 3: Peak Hour Demand per Transport Corridor

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Private Vehicle

75.7

50

30

Route Red Line

10,212

18,074

22,592

Public Transport

11.3

20

25

Blue Line

10,785

19,088

23,860

Walking

7.6

25

35

Green Line

11,333

20,059

25,074

Cycling

1.7

5

10

Purple Line

4,962

8,784

10,979

Other

3.7

-

-

Orange Line

7,569

13,397

16,746

OD matrices were used from the 2010 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). The majority of trips during the peak hour occur between 6.30-7.30am. The percentage of trips during this morning peak, account for just under 10% of total daily trips, across all modes. The triangular configuration (Figure 3c), was chosen when establishing the estimated demand for the network as it provides the greatest benefits. Table 3 shows the resulting total number of trips for the peak hour, considering the scenarios in Table 2, for each transit corridor along the proposed route. The values in Table 3 assume a population increase to 500,000 and an economic growth of 2% per annum to 2030 and 1% per annum thereafter. When considering the full network (Figure 3c) the demand has shown that the full network is not necessary as there is an insufficient number of trips in certain areas to justify heavy infrastructure. Nonetheless, the

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projected demand has shown that a MRT network is going to be required as early as 2025 as the road infrastructure reaches capacity as explained further on in this paper. Table 4: Proposed MRT Network for the Maltese Islands Line

Mode

ROW

Peak AM Headway (minutes)

-

-

-

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Red

LRT

B/A

6.60

3.73

3.00

Blue

LRRT or Metro

A

6.25

3.53

2.85

Green

LRT

B/A

6.00

3.36

2.70

Purple

LRT

B/A

N/A

4.90

3.90

Orange

LRT

B/A

5.50

3.11

2.50

The analysis shows that the implementation of the network could be staggered. In all, five main lines make up the network. This particular alignment, as Table 4 illustrates shows that the ROW category for most alignments is required at Cat. B, and in some instances even Cat. A. This is a clear upgrade in comparison to the existing bus network, mixed in with private motorized traffic. The data has shown that the alignments may perform well in Cat. B, separated from other forms of motorised transportation and sharing the road with pedestrians and cyclists. Sutton and Pule denote how this is the only way public transport will have an advantage over the private vehicle. Until this happens, the bus network shall be subjected to the same conditions as the private vehicle. The scenarios which this paper has considered attempt to tackle this potential change, the fundamental question being: What happens when the private vehicle is restricted to certain areas? Further research would be required through simulation modelling in order to assess whether the degree of modal shift could be satisfied, and in so doing understand the potential for travel to occur in accordance to the scenarios presented in Table 2. In principle, the expected steps to take to get to the network proposed in Figure 5, would be to take the existing bus network and create a number of exclusive corridors through enforced restriction on private vehicles at which point, one of two outcomes is favourable, that in which a modal shift towards the bus service starts to take effect. Should this phenomenon occur, then the operator should notice specific routes reaching capacity at an increased pace, automatically paving the way for the introduction of LRT along selected corridors. Sutton denotes how at the current pace, the limited road network available will approach gridlock by 2025, described as traffic moving at the speed of 10-12km/hr (Sutton, Interview 2016). This process is not expected to be possible for all transport corridors. Rather, this methodology would work predominantly for the green line as well as partial sections of the red line, where the final LRT alignment replaces the existing road network. The blue line, for example, which is the only one running exclusively in its own ROW, merits a different approach. However, when one considers that the blue line serves most of Malta’s work place and entertainment hubs in the form of Gzira, St. Julian’s, Valletta, Marsa and the Airport, it is logical to assume that the presence of the blue line would function as a catalyst for more intensive growth along this route. The green line meanwhile, caters for three times as many trips on its own while the red line caters for five times the equivalent of the blue line (this value assumes the number of O-D trips along the same route). When all three lines work together, with a strong interchange between them, the number of trips double. The purple and orange lines can afford to be introduced at a later stage as the number of trips along the route is relatively low. Therefore, these routes would not create sufficient demand until the red, blue and green lines are operational. From an economic standpoint, it would be ideal to begin with the green and blue alignments, in line with the expected demographics (Figure 2) which show that the green line has the highest concentration of the existing population living within an 800m catchment while the blue line would connect and facilitate the development of planned projects along this route. This process undeniable implies that the private vehicle will, in one way or another be restricted from accessing urban zones, as a result being displaced to the outskirts of towns, in the proximity of the arterial road network. The alignment encourages the regeneration of Marsa, Blata l-Bajda, Hamrun, Pieta’ and Floriana within the inner harbour region, strengthening these localities for a vibrant mixed-use development. The locations would repopulate on the premise that the private vehicle, and resulting pollutants, have been omitted. With this restriction, it is likely that a percentage of the population would be willing to make use of the public transportation network and as a result relocate

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inside the urban cores while, as Sutton and Pule both eloquently point out, a percentage of the population would be stubborn enough to insist on using their personal vehicle. This percentage of the population would tend to relocate on the outskirts of towns, closer to the arterial road network. At this point, restrictions on urban sprawl through land use development limitations would need to come into effect and be enforced to ensure that the public transport network is favoured over the private vehicle. It is assumed that the presence of the network in itself would suffice to work as a catalyst for historically significant localities to be completely pedestrianised. In larger localities, the networks presence could be enough to encourage more people to walk short distances within small urbam clusters. The potential benefits this will have on the quality of life of individuals across the island will far outweigh the construction costs. Much of the noise and air pollution would, in theory, be eliminated from the urban environment while the potential of accidents is reduced. Above all, the physical health of the individual would improve as the lifestyle reduces the risks of diabetes, asthma, obesity, cardiovascular disease and heart failure through preventative measures. Overall, this network would contribute to a significant reduction in the existing €274M annual cost of congestion.

Figure 5: RHS - Proposed Core MRT Network for the Maltese Islands

Table 5: Details of Core Network Characteristics Line

Line Length

Stations

(km)

(no.)

Expected Travel Time (mins)

Red

23.20

19

48.65

Blue

15.00

16

27.77

Green

16.70

18

40.11

Purple

8.75

11

19.17

Orange

7.10

8

15.35

Total

70.75

63

-

5. Conclusion It can be concluded that while it is beneficial to compare cities, the number of variables in play make it near impossible to assume that something will work in one environment based on the fact that it works in another. Having said that, similarities in principle do exist, and that is precisely what this research has focused on. Through a comprehensive analysis, it was made clear that the majority of cities having a similar size to Malta rely on LRT and metro solutions as their preferred mode of sustainable travel within urban environments. From the spatial form of the

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Maltese Islands, the aims and objectives for 2050, and from the assessments of other cities of similar population size and density, it has been concluded that five transit corridors would be required. The core network required is reduced from the original network seen in Figure 3c as there is insufficient demand to justify large and costly infrastructure projects along particular sections. However, it will be critical to achieve the core network, comprising 70.75km in length having 63 stations, preferably by 2030, in order to compete with the private vehicle. As a result, the network would also be faster and cheaper than the private vehicle, an assumption based on the average operating travel speeds of LRT networks in various ROW categories (compiled through the comparative analysis at 22km/hr. for Cat. B and 32km/hr. for Cat. A). This would make the network an attractive alternative to the private vehicle, creating an environment in which the vehicle is no longer required, especially once one considers Sutton’s 2025 near-gridlock predictions. Over and above operational speed, the presence of the network within the urban town centre, close to where people live and work, would constitute a significant advantage over the private vehicle through the distance-decay assumptions discussed previously (Sutton, Interview 2016). It is clear, though, that Malta has reached the point where the bus network is approaching capacity and the ever increasing number of vehicles on the road is affecting the network. Pule also recognises that there’s only so much which can be done with a bus network and acknowledges that transport will evolve as we go along, even though it is not easy to implement. Over and above political will, the government would also need to bring in the general public and find ways of introducing this behavioural change, which would allow the public transportation system to transition smoothly (Pule, Interview 2016). This is a very important point to note when considering that 75% of the population make use of the private vehicle, and their unsustainable way of life would need to be challenged, changing their frame of mind. Long-term, the benefits of doing away with the private vehicle in Malta would be substantial for the economy, for social well-being and for the environment. This network would see 94% of the Maltese population living within a 10-minute walking distance, two-thirds of which reside within a 5-minute walk off of any station. 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