Statistical Appendix - IMF

chapter

X

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

T

his statistical appendix presents data on financial developments in key financial centers and emerging and other markets. It is designed to complement the analysis in the text by providing additional data that describe key aspects of financial market developments. These data are derived from a number of sources external to the IMF, including banks, commercial data providers, and official sources, and are presented for information purposes only; the IMF does not, however, guarantee the accuracy of the data from external sources. Presenting financial market data in one location and in a fixed set of tables and charts, in this and future issues of the GFSR, is intended to give the reader an overview of developments in global financial markets. Unless otherwise noted, the statistical appendix reflects information available up to February 26, 2010.

Mirroring the structure of the chapters of the report, the appendix presents data separately for key financial centers and emerging and other markets. Specifically, it is organized into three sections: • Figures 1–14 and Tables 1–9 contain information on market developments in key financial centers. This includes data on global capital flows, and on markets for foreign exchange, bonds, equities, and derivatives as well as sectoral balance sheet data for the United States, Japan, and Europe. • Figures 15 and 16, and Tables 10–21 present information on financial developments in emerging and other markets, including data on equity, foreign exchange, and bond markets, as well as data on emerging and other market financing flows. • Tables 22–27 report key financial soundness indicators for selected countries, including bank profitability, asset quality, and capital adequacy.

International Monetary Fund | April 2010

1

global financial stabilit y report meeting new challenges to stabilit y and building a safer system

List of Tables and Figures Key Financial Centers Figures 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2009 2. Exchange Rates: Selected Major Industrial Countries 3. United States: Yields on Corporate and Treasury Bonds 4. Selected Spreads 5. Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads 6. Equity Markets: Price Indices 7. Implied and Historical Volatility in Equity Markets 8. Historical Volatility of Government Bond Yields and Bond Returns for Selected Countries 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios 10. Flows into U.S.-Based Equity Funds 11. United States: Corporate Bond Market 12. Europe: Corporate Bond Market 13. United States: Commercial Paper Market 14. United States: Asset-Backed Securities Tables 1. Global Financial Flows: Inflows and Outflows 2. Global Capital Flows: Amounts Outstanding and Net Issues of International Debt Securities by Currency of Issue and Signed International Syndicated Credit Facilities by Nationality of Borrower 3. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2008 4. Global Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets: Notional Amounts and Gross Market Values of Outstanding Contracts 5. Global Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets: Notional Amounts and Gross Market Values of Outstanding Contracts by Counterparty, Remaining Maturity, and Currency 6. Exchange-Traded Derivative Financial Instruments: Notional Principal Amounts Outstanding and Annual Turnover 7. United States: Sectoral Balance Sheets 8. Japan: Sectoral Balance Sheets 9. Europe: Sectoral Balance Sheets Emerging and Other Markets Figures 15. Emerging Market Volatility Measures 16. Emerging Market Debt Cross-Correlation Measures Tables 10. MSCI Equity Market Indices 11. Foreign Exchange Rates 12. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Total Returns Index 13. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads 14. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans 15. Emerging Market External Financing: Bond Issuance 16. Emerging Market External Financing: Equity Issuance 17. Emerging Market External Financing: Loan Syndication 18. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios 19. Equity Valuation Measures: Price-to-Book Ratios 20. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios 21. Emerging Markets: Mutual Fund Flows Financial Soundness Indicators 22. Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets 23. Bank Capital to Assets 24. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans 25. Bank Provisions to Nonperforming Loans 26. Bank Return on Assets 27. Bank Return on Equity

2


STATISTICAL APPENDIX key financial centers

Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2009 Economies That Export Capital1 Other economies2 18.0%

China 23.4%

Sweden 2.1% Malaysia 2.4% Kuwait 2.8% Singapore 2.8% Germany 13.3%

Netherlands 3.4% Taiwan Province of China 3.5% Korea 3.5% Switzerland 3.6% Russia 4.7%

Japan 11.7%

Norway 4.8%

Economies That Import Capital3 Other economies4 29.3%

United States 41.7%

Greece 3.5% Canada 3.6% Australia 3.7% France 3.9% Italy 7.0% Spain 7.3%

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database as of March 10, 2010. As measured by economies’ current account surplus (assuming errors and omissions are part of the capital and financial accounts). Other economies include all economies with shares of total surplus less than 2.1 percent. 3 As measured by economies’ current account deficit (assuming errors and omissions are part of the capital and financial accounts). 4 Other economies include all economies with shares of total deficit less than 3.5 percent. 1 2


3

MDC-GFSR (22079) global financial stabilit y report meeting new challenges to stabilit y and building a safer system

Figure 2. Exchange Rates: Selected Major Industrial Countries (Weekly data)

Bilateral exchange rate (left scale)1 Normal effective exchange rate (right scale)2 United States

110 105 100 95 90 85 80

2000 85

02

04

Japan

120

95

110

105

100

06 1.6

08

10

Euro Area

150 140

1.4

130 120

1.2

125

80

135

70 2000

2.1

110

90

115

02

04

06

08

100 1.0

80 0.8

10

United Kingdom

2.0 1.9

70 2000

110

0.8

105

1.0

100

1.8

90

02

04

06

08

10

Switzerland

130 125 120

1.2

115

95 1.4

1.7

110

90

1.6

85

1.5 1.4 1.3 2000

02

04

06

08

10

1.6

80

1.8

75

2.0

105 100 95 2000

02

04

06

08

10

Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; and the IMF Global Data System. Note: In each panel, the effective and bilateral exchange rates are scaled so that an upward movement implies an appreciation of the respective local currency. 1 Local currency units per U.S. dollar except for the euro area and the United Kingdom, for which data are shown as U.S. dollars per local currency. 2 2000 = 100; constructed using 1999–2001 trade weights.

4



Figure 3. United States: Yields on Corporate and Treasury Bonds (Monthly data) Yields (In percent)

25

20 Merrill Lynch high-yield bond index

Baa

15 Aaa

10

10-year treasury bond

5

0 1978

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Yield Differentials with 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond (In basis points)

2000

1500

1000

Merrill Lynch high-yield bond index

500 Baa Aaa

0

–500 1978

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; and Merrill Lynch.


5


Figure 4. Selected Spreads (In basis points; monthly data) Repo Spread1

160

120

80

40

0

–40 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Commercial Paper Spread2

280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 –40

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Swap Spreads3

160

120 United States

80

40 Euro area

0 Japan

1998

2000

02

04

06

Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; and Merrill Lynch. Spread between yields on three-month U.S. treasury repo and on three-month U.S. treasury bill. Spread between yields on 90-day investment grade commercial paper and on three-month U.S. treasury bill. 3 Spread over 10-year government bond. 1 2

6


08

10

–40

MDC-GFSR (22079)


Figure 5. Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads (In basis points; monthly data) AA Rated

300 250 200 150 United States

100 50

Euro area Japan

1998

0

2000

02

04

06

08

10

A Rated

600 500 400 300 200 United States

100

Euro area Japan

0 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

BBB Rated

800 700 600 500 400 300 United States

200

Euro area

100 Japan

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

0

Source: Merrill Lynch. Note: Option-adjusted spread.


7


Figure 6. Equity Markets: Price Indices (January 1, 1990 = 100; weekly data) United States

1200 Nasdaq

1000 800 600

S&P 500

400 Wilshire 5000

200 0

1990

92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Europe

600

500

Europe (FTSE Eurofirst 300)

Germany (DAX)

400

300

200

United Kingdom (FTSE All-Share)

100

0 1990

92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Japan

120 100 80 Topix

60 40 20

Nikkei 225

0 1990

92

Source: Bloomberg L.P.

8


94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Figure 7. Implied and Historical Volatility in Equity Markets (Weekly data)

Implied volatility 90

Historical volatility

S&P 500

Nikkei 225

120

80

100

70 60

80

VIX1

50

60

40 30

40

20

20

10 0

0

1998 90

2000

02

04

06

08

10

DAX

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

FTSE 100

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Implied volatility is a measure of the equity price variability implied by the market prices of call options on equity futures. Historical volatility is calculated as a rolling 100-day annualized standard deviation of equity price changes. Volatilities are expressed in percent rate of change. 1 VIX is Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index. This index is calculated by taking a weighted average of implied volatility for the eight S&P 500 calls and puts.

10

MDC-GFSR (22079)


Figure 8. Historical Volatility of Government Bond Yields and Bond Returns for Selected Countries1 (Weekly data) United States

70

25

100

Japan

25

90

60

20

50

Yield volatility (left scale)

80

20

70 Return volatility (right scale)

40

15

15

60 50

30

10

10

40 30

20 5


10

5

20 10

0

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Germany

70 60

0

0

25

70

20

50

Return volatility (right scale)

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

United Kingdom

0

25

60

20

50 15

40


30

10

20

15

40 30


10

20 5

10


0

0 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

5

10


0

0 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; and Datastream. Volatility calculated as a rolling 100-day annualized standard deviation of changes in yield and returns on 10-year government bonds. Returns are based on 10-plus-year government bond indexes. 1

10

10


10


Figure 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios 80

35

MDC-GFSR (22079)

Germany (left scale)

Japan (right scale)

30

70 60

25

50 20 40 15 30 United States (left scale)

10

20

5

0

10

1990

92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

0

08

Source: I/B/E/S.

Figure 10. Flows into U.S.-Based Equity Funds 1800

80 S&P 500 (right scale)

60

1600 1400

40 Net flows into 1 U.S.-based equity funds (left scale)

20

1200 1000

0 800 –20 600 –40

400

–60

200 0

–80 1990

92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Sources: Investment Company Institute; and Datastream. 1 In billions of U.S. dollars.


11


Figure 11. United States: Corporate Bond Market 60

Investment Grade

3.0

Issuance (in billions of U.S. dollars; left scale)

50

2.5

40

2.0 1

Aaa Moody’s spread (in percent; right scale)

30

1.5

20

1.0

10

0.5

0 1990 25

92

94

96

98

2000

02

04

06

08

10

0

20

High-Yield

18

Issuance (in billions of U.S. dollars; left scale)

16

20

14 12

15 1

Merrill Lynch high-yield spread (in percent; right scale)

10 8

10

6 4

5

2 0 1990

92

94

96

98

2000

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; and Bloomberg L.P. 1 Spread against yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds.

12


02

04

06

08

10

0


Figure 12. Europe: Corporate Bond Market1 2500

High-Yield Spread2 (In basis points)

2000

1500

1000

500

0 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

European Corporate Bond Issuance3 (In billions of U.S. dollars)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Sources: DCM Analytics; and Datastream. Nonfinancial corporate bonds. Spread between yields on a Merrill Lynch High-Yield European Issuers Index bond and a 10–year German government benchmark bond. 3 Nonfinancial corporate bond issuance in euro area countries. 1 2


13

MDC-GFSR (22079)


Figure 13. United States: Commercial Paper Market1 600

Discount Rate Spread2 (In basis points; weekly data)

500

400

300

200

100

0 1997

99

2001

03

05

07

09

Amount Outstanding (In billions of U.S. dollars; monthly data)

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0 1991

93

95

97

99

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1 Nonfinancial commercial paper. 2 Difference between 30-day A2/P2 and AA commercial paper.

14


2001

03

05

07

09

MDC-GFSR (22079) STATISTICAL APPENDIX key financial centers

Figure 14. United States: Asset-Backed Securities ABS Spread1 (In basis points)

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

10

Total Amount Outstanding (In billions of U.S. dollars)

0

3000

2500 Automobile Credit card Home equity Student loan CBO/CDO 2 Other

2000

1500

1000

500

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

0

Sources: Merrill Lynch; Datastream; and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. 1 Merrill Lynch AAA Asset-Backed Master Index (fixed rate) option-adjusted spread. 2 Collateralized bond/debt obligations; from 2007 onward, CBO/CDO amount outstanding is included in Other.


15


Table 1. Global Financial Flows: Inflows and Outflows1 (In billions of U.S. dollars)

United States Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Reserve assets Total capital flows Canada Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Reserve assets Total capital flows Japan Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Reserve assets Total capital flows United Kingdom Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Reserve assets Total capital flows Euro area Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Reserve assets Total capital flows Emerging and developing economies2 Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Reserve assets Total capital flows

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Inflows 2003

179.0 187.6 54.2 n.a. 420.8

289.4 285.6 167.2 n.a. 742.2

321.3 436.6 280.4 n.a. 1,038.2

167.0 428.3 187.5 n.a. 782.9

84.4 427.6 283.2 n.a. 795.2

63.8 550.2 244.4 n.a. 858.3

146.0 867.3 519.9 n.a. 1,533.2

112.6 832.0 302.7 n.a. 1,247.3

243.2 1,126.7 695.3 n.a. 2,065.2

275.8 1,154.7 699.0 n.a. 2,129.5

319.7 527.7 –313.4 n.a. 534.1

22.7 16.6 5.4 n.a. 44.8

24.8 2.7 –10.8 n.a. 16.6

66.1 10.3 0.8 n.a. 77.2

27.7 24.2 7.8 n.a. 59.7

22.1 11.9 5.1 n.a. 39.0

7.2 14.1 12.3 n.a. 33.6

–0.7 41.8 –3.9 n.a. 37.1

25.9 10.9 30.0 n.a. 66.7

59.8 27.6 34.3 n.a. 121.7

111.4 –32.5 60.3 n.a. 139.2

45.4 29.6 13.8 n.a. 88.7

3.3 56.1 –93.3 n.a. –34.0

12.3 126.9 –265.1 n.a. –125.9

8.2 47.4 –10.2 n.a. 45.4

6.2 60.5 –17.6 n.a. 49.1

9.1 –20.0 26.6 n.a. 15.7

6.2 81.2 34.1 n.a. 121.5

7.8 196.7 68.3 n.a. 272.8

3.2 183.1 45.9 n.a. 232.3

–6.8 198.6 –89.1 n.a. 102.6

22.2 196.6 48.9 n.a. 267.7

24.6 –103.0 62.0 n.a. –16.4

74.7 35.2 110.5 n.a. 220.3

89.3 171.3 87.1 n.a. 347.8

122.2 268.1 365.1 n.a. 755.3

53.8 59.1 346.6 n.a. 459.5

25.5 74.3 92.7 n.a. 192.6

27.6 172.8 387.9 n.a. 588.3

57.3 178.3 781.7 n.a. 1,017.4

177.4 237.0 902.0 n.a. 1,316.5

154.1 285.5 666.3 n.a. 1,105.9

197.8 93.5 406.7 363.9 1,439.2 –1,412.9 n.a. n.a. 2,043.6 –955.6

... ... ... n.a. ...

216.3 305.2 199.2 n.a. 720.7

416.3 267.9 340.2 n.a. 1,024.4

199.8 318.1 238.6 n.a. 756.5

184.9 298.6 60.4 n.a. 543.8

153.3 381.4 198.4 n.a. 733.0

114.8 486.1 356.0 n.a. 956.9

194.1 660.3 801.7 n.a. 1,656.1

328.6 890.5 945.7 n.a. 2,164.7

563.5 800.4 1,269.8 n.a. 2,633.7

207.1 523.4 295.3 n.a. 1,025.8

169.5 43.8 40.1 n.a. 253.4

184.3 33.9 –14.3 n.a. 203.9

169.3 33.4 28.1 n.a. 230.8

182.5 3.0 –2.0 n.a. 183.5

172.9 –5.0 6.2 n.a. 174.2

174.0 55.1 78.4 n.a. 307.5

250.0 109.2 122.5 n.a. 481.7

335.0 176.4 122.4 n.a. 633.9

417.1 283.4 194.6 n.a. 895.1

611.6 352.2 694.5 n.a. 1,658.3

686.8 –33.8 123.8 n.a. 776.8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook databases as of March 10, 2010. 1The total net capital flows are the sum of direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment flows, and reserve assets. “Other investment” includes bank loans and deposits. 2This aggregate comprises the group of emerging and developing economies defined in the World Economic Outlook.

16



1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

–142.6 –130.2 –74.2 –6.7 –353.8

–224.9 –122.2 –165.6 8.7 –504.1

–159.2 –127.9 –273.1 –0.3 –560.5

–142.4 –90.6 –144.7 –4.9 –382.6

–154.5 –48.6 –87.9 –3.7 –294.7

–34.1 –15.1 9.4 –5.0 –44.8

–17.3 –15.6 10.2 –5.9 –28.5

–44.5 –43.0 –4.2 –3.7 –95.4

–36.2 –24.4 –10.7 –2.2 –73.4

–24.6 –95.2 37.9 6.2 –75.8

–22.3 –154.4 266.3 –76.3 13.4

–31.5 –83.4 –4.1 –49.0 –168.0

–122.8 –53.2 –22.9 0.3 –198.6

–202.5 –34.3 –68.7 1.0 –304.5

... ... ... ... ... –14.5 –30.6 –92.2 6.4 –130.9

Outflows 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

–149.6 –123.1 –54.3 1.5 –325.4

–316.2 –177.4 –510.1 2.8 –1,000.9

–36.2 –257.5 –267.0 14.1 –546.6

–244.9 –498.9 –544.3 2.4 –1,285.7

–398.6 –396.0 –677.4 –0.1 –1,472.1

–332.0 117.4 219.4 –4.8 –0.1

–26.8 –18.6 –7.9 0.2 –53.2

–23.6 –13.8 –14.2 3.3 –48.4

–42.6 –18.9 –7.1 2.8 –65.8

–27.6 –44.2 –17.8 –1.3 –91.0

–44.5 –69.4 –30.6 –0.8 –145.3

–59.6 –42.8 –54.5 –3.9 –160.8

–79.0 10.0 –31.0 –1.8 –101.8

–38.5 –106.8 46.6 –40.5 –139.2

–32.0 –85.9 36.4 –46.1 –127.7

–28.8 –176.3 149.9 –187.2 –242.3

–31.0 –173.8 –48.0 –160.9 –413.6

–45.4 –196.4 –106.6 –22.3 –370.8

–50.2 –71.0 –86.2 –32.0 –239.4

–73.5 –123.5 –260.8 –36.5 –494.2

–130.8 –189.6 139.5 –30.9 –211.9

–246.3 –97.2 –374.4 –5.3 –723.2

–61.8 –124.7 –250.8 4.5 –432.9

–50.3 1.2 –108.5 0.6 –157.0

–65.6 –58.4 –420.9 2.6 –542.4

–93.9 –259.4 –595.9 –0.4 –949.7

–80.8 –273.4 –926.2 –1.7 –1,282.1

–85.6 –257.0 –708.3 1.3 –1,049.6

–275.5 –179.6 –1,484.3 –2.6 –1,941.9

–163.1 199.6 1,000.0 3.1 1,039.5

–348.7 –341.8 –30.5 11.4 –709.6

–413.3 –385.2 –166.2 16.2 –948.5

–297.9 –254.8 –244.3 16.8 –780.2

–163.7 –163.5 –219.6 –3.0 –549.8

–164.7 –318.1 –282.3 32.8 –732.3

–215.3 –428.8 –425.2 15.6 –1,053.7

–453.6 –514.6 –737.7 23.0 –1,682.9

–542.7 –650.5 –998.6 –2.5 –2,194.3

–664.8 –597.1 –1,287.2 –5.6 –2,554.7

–485.1 –25.5 –180.8 –5.6 –697.1

–17.6 –23.3 –78.8 –37.8 –157.5

–20.2 –65.9 –122.6 –84.0 –292.7

–12.0 –58.6 –21.1 –90.3 –182.0

–22.9 –37.2 –37.8 –154.5 –252.4

–26.6 –71.4 –84.6 –303.9 –486.4

–63.3 –106.0 –125.8 –426.7 –721.9

–83.1 –169.8 –197.9 –540.1 –990.9

–161.8 –399.7 –272.6 –717.7 –1,551.8

–199.3 –341.4 –524.7 –1,226.6 –2,292.1

–250.8 –132.9 –343.4 –668.0 –1,395.0


17


Table 2. Global Capital Flows: Amounts Outstanding and Net Issues of International Debt Securities by Currency of Issue and Signed International Syndicated Credit Facilities by Nationality of Borrower (In billions of U.S. dollars)

2009 Amounts outstanding of international debt securities by currency of issue U.S. dollar Japanese yen Pound sterling Canadian dollar Swedish krona Swiss franc Euro Other Total Net issues of international debt securities by currency of issue U.S. dollar Japanese yen Pound sterling Canadian dollar Swedish krona Swiss franc Euro Other Total Signed international syndicated credit facilities by nationality of borrower All countries Industrial countries Of which: United States Japan Germany France Italy United Kingdom Canada Source: Bank for International Settlements.

18


2005

2006

2007

2008

Q1

Q2

Q3

5,379.1 469.6 1,062.6 146.6 23.2 208.6 6,309.9 352.2 13,951.8

6,391.3 485.0 1,447.8 177.9 34.3 254.2 8,305.1 451.9 17,547.4

7,535.9 575.4 1,705.7 266.2 46.7 300.7 10,537.1 606.2 21,573.8

8,224.6 747.8 1,702.8 240.1 48.4 331.7 10,874.9 559.5 22,729.9

8,590.2 684.1 1,777.3 237.2 57.4 322.3 10,684.6 539.6 22,892.7

8,994.2 687.4 2,114.6 267.9 64.6 348.7 11,799.0 607.4 24,883.8

9,164.0 725.7 2,133.4 287.8 71.1 363.3 12,421.9 652.7 25,820.1

476.1 3.8 197.3 29.4 6.2 13.1 985.0 86.3 1,797.1

1,012.2 19.5 221.1 32.1 7.0 28.5 1,200.2 79.5 2,600.1

1,144.5 67.0 226.5 51.1 9.4 23.1 1,150.4 105.1 2,777.2

688.8 20.8 562.4 30.9 11.7 13.4 952.1 68.8 2,349.0

365.6 –7.8 101.9 3.8 11.4 12.4 280.5 –6.2 761.5

404.0 –11.8 58.2 10.0 2.9 8.7 433.2 4.7 909.8

169.8 –10.6 78.4 –1.3 0.4 –2.6 191.6 8.6 434.4

1,725.1 1,490.0

2,064.0 1,722.3

2,770.0 2,256.6

1,537.8 1,173.7

178.4 140.7

290.7 251.0

198.3 150.8

700.7 27.6 84.3 112.5 40.8 158.3 40.2

778.3 52.0 133.0 101.1 38.9 189.4 61.5

1,070.3 75.5 126.4 167.5 36.5 240.8 78.5

442.7 46.4 47.0 76.4 23.1 191.0 44.4

36.8 15.7 19.9 6.0 0.4 11.0 3.7

78.3 6.3 24.6 5.3 15.2 20.2 8.8

58.0 11.8 8.2 8.8 3.6 8.4 7.5


Table 3. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2008 (In billions of U.S. dollars unless noted otherwise)

World European Union1 Euro area North America Canada United States Japan Memorandum items: EU countries Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom Newly industrialized Asian economies5 Emerging market economies6 Of which: Asia Western Hemisphere Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Europe

GDP 61,218.7 17,134.2 13,631.0 15,941.0 1,499.6 14,441.4 4,887.0

Total Reserves Stock Market Minus Gold2 Capitalization 7,389.7 33,513.1 296.2 7,269.1 185.5 4,991.0 110.4 12,771.1 43.8 1,033.4 66.6 11,737.6 1,009.4 3,209.0

Public 31,573.9 8,769.3 7,705.9 8,643.1 755.7 7,887.4 9,116.3

Debt Securities Private 51,694.8 20,272.1 15,994.2 23,434.8 750.9 22,683.9 2,338.0

Total 83,268.7 29,041.3 23,700.1 32,077.9 1,506.6 30,571.3 11,454.3

Bank Assets3 104,712.3 51,044.4 36,345.0 16,539.1 2,534.3 14,004.8 10,419.3

Bonds, Equities, and Bank Assets4 221,494.0 87,354.8 65,036.2 61,388.1 5,074.3 56,313.7 25,082.6

Bonds, Equities, and Bank Assets4 (In percent of GDP) 361.8 509.8 477.1 385.1 338.4 389.9 513.3

414.8 506.3 340.0 271.1 2,866.8 3,673.1 351.9 267.6 2,313.9 57.9 877.0 244.9 1,602.0 479.0 2,684.2

8.9 9.3 40.5 7.0 33.6 43.1 0.3 0.9 37.1 0.3 11.5 1.3 12.4 25.9 44.3

76.3 167.4 140.0 157.5 1,490.6 1,110.6 90.9 49.5 522.1 66.6 206.6 74.8 948.4 270.0 1,868.2

216.4 523.6 100.4 119.0 1,481.7 1,646.7 346.9 112.6 1,998.7 2.8 403.3 188.9 634.0 128.6 834.3

477.3 580.5 630.9 124.2 3,080.8 3,829.9 165.2 487.2 2,482.1 97.5 1,671.6 291.9 2,698.6 513.6 3,133.4

693.7 1,104.1 731.4 243.2 4,562.5 5,476.6 512.2 599.8 4,480.8 100.3 2,074.8 480.8 3,332.6 642.2 3,967.6

741.9 1,958.4 1,335.9 413.4 11,208.0 6,894.6 567.3 1,571.5 4,257.8 982.1 4,061.7 307.7 3,076.5 634.4 12,729.0

1,511.9 3,230.0 2,207.2 814.1 17,261.1 13,481.7 1,170.5 2,220.8 9,260.6 1,149.0 6,343.2 863.2 7,357.5 1,546.6 18,564.8

364.5 638.0 649.1 300.3 602.1 367.0 332.6 830.0 400.2 1,984.0 723.3 352.4 459.3 322.9 691.6

1,735.2 18,941.9

849.5 4,838.2

2,447.6 5,960.0

555.0 4,077.2

902.0 2,129.8

1,456.9 6,207.0

3,481.8 16,729.5

7,386.4 28,896.5

425.7 152.6

7,378.3 4,277.4 2,243.5 933.4 4,109.3

2,545.6 497.2 899.9 152.4 743.2

2,879.1 1,456.6 652.4 381.3 590.8

2,180.1 1,164.2 65.3 68.1 599.5

1,126.1 658.9 90.0 60.1 194.6

3,306.2 1,823.1 155.3 128.2 794.1

9,878.6 2,258.5 1,628.2 753.5 2,210.7

16,063.8 5,538.2 2,435.9 1,263.0 3,595.6

217.7 129.5 108.6 135.3 87.5

Sources: World Federation of Exchanges; Bank for International Settlements; IMF, International Financial Statistics (IFS) and World Economic Outlook databases as of March 10, 2010; ©2003 Bureau van Dijk Electronic Publishing-Bankscope; and Bloomberg L.P. 1This aggregate includes euro area countries, Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. 2Data are from IFS. 3Total assets of commercial banks, including subsidiaries. 4Sum of the stock market capitalization, debt securities, and bank assets. 5Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China. 6This aggregate comprises the group of emerging and developing economies defined in the World Economic Outlook.


19


Table 4. Global Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets: Notional Amounts and Gross Market Values of Outstanding Contracts1 (In billions of U.S. dollars)

Notional Amounts End-Dec. End-June 2007 2008

End-Dec. 2008

516,407 48,645 24,530 12,312 11,804 347,312 22,809 272,216 52,288 8,590 2,470 6,119 7,567 426 7,141 3,447 3,694 42,581 24,239 18,341 61,713

595,738 56,238 29,144 14,347 12,748 393,138 26,599 309,588 56,951 8,469 2,233 6,236 8,455 595 7,861 5,085 2,776 58,244 32,486 25,757 71,194

683,814 62,983 31,966 16,307 14,710 458,304 39,370 356,772 62,162 10,177 2,657 7,521 13,229 649 12,580 7,561 5,019 57,403 33,412 23,991 81,719

n.a. 95,091

n.a. 79,078

n.a. 82,006

End-June 2007 Total Foreign exchange Forwards and forex swaps Currency swaps Options Interest rate2 Forward rate agreements Swaps Options Equity-linked Forwards and swaps Options Commodity3 Gold Other Forwards and swaps Options Credit default swaps Single-name instruments Multi-name instruments Unallocated Memorandum items: Gross credit exposure4 Exchange-traded derivatives5

Gross Market Values End-Dec. End-June End-Dec. 2007 2008 2008

End-June 2009

End-June 2007

End-June 2009

547,371 44,200 21,266 13,322 9,612 385,896 35,002 309,760 41,134 6,159 1,553 4,607 3,820 332 3,489 1,995 1,493 41,883 25,740 16,143 65,413

604,622 48,775 23,107 15,072 10,596 437,198 46,798 341,886 48,513 6,619 1,709 4,910 3,729 425 3,304 1,772 1,533 36,046 24,112 11,934 72,255

11,140 1,345 492 619 235 6,063 43 5,321 700 1,116 240 876 636 47 589 ... ... 721 406 315 1,259

15,834 1,807 675 817 315 7,177 41 6,183 953 1,142 239 903 1,898 70 1,829 ... ... 2,020 1,158 862 1,790

20,375 2,262 802 1,071 388 9,263 88 8,056 1,120 1,146 283 863 2,209 68 2,141 ... ... 3,192 1,901 1,291 2,303

32,244 3,591 1,615 1,421 555 18,011 140 16,436 1,435 1,051 323 728 829 55 774 ... ... 5,116 3,263 1,854 3,645

25,372 2,470 870 1,211 389 15,478 130 13,934 1,414 879 225 654 689 43 646 ... ... 2,987 1,953 1,034 2,868

n.a. 57,864

n.a. 63,449

2,672 ...

3,256 ...

3,859 ...

4,555 ...

3,744 ...

Source: Bank for International Settlements. 1All figures are adjusted for double-counting. Notional amounts outstanding have been adjusted by halving positions vis-à-vis other reporting dealers. Gross market values have been calculated as the sum of the total gross positive market value of contracts and the absolute value of the gross negative market value of contracts with nonreporting counterparties. 2Single-currency contracts only. 3Adjustments for double-counting are estimated. 4Gross market values after taking into account legally enforceable bilateral netting agreements. 5Includes futures and options on interest rate, currency, and equity index contracts.

20



Table 5. Global Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets: Notional Amounts and Gross Market Values of Outstanding Contracts by Counterparty, Remaining Maturity, and Currency1 (In billions of U.S. dollars)

Total Foreign exchange By counterparty With other reporting dealers With other financial institutions With nonfinancial customers By remaining maturity Up to one year2 One to five years2 Over five years2 By major currency U.S. dollar3 Euro3 Japanese yen3 Pound sterling3 Other3 Interest rate4 By counterparty With other reporting dealers With other financial institutions With nonfinancial customers By remaining maturity Up to one year2 One to five years2 Over five years2 By major currency U.S. dollar Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Other Equity-linked Commodity5 Credit default swaps Unallocated

End-June 2007

Notional Amounts End-Dec. End-June End-Dec. 2007 2008 2008

End-June 2009

End-June 2007

Gross Market Values End-Dec. End-June End-Dec. 2007 2008 2008

516,407 48,645

595,738 56,238

683,814 62,983

547,371 44,200

604,622 48,775

11,140 1,345

15,834 1,807

20,375 2,262

32,244 3,591

25,372 2,470

19,173 19,144 10,329

21,334 24,357 10,548

24,845 26,775 11,362

18,810 17,223 8,166

18,891 21,441 8,442

455 557 333

594 806 407

782 995 484

1,459 1,424 708

892 1,066 512

36,950 8,090 3,606

40,316 8,553 7,370

43,639 10,701 8,643

31,076 9,049 4,075

30,302 9,698 8,775

... ... ...

... ... ...

... ... ...

... ... ...

... ... ...

40,513 18,280 10,602 7,770 20,125 347,312

46,947 21,806 12,857 7,979 22,888 393,138

52,152 25,963 13,616 8,377 25,858 458,304

37,516 18,583 11,292 4,732 16,275 385,896

40,737 20,653 11,438 6,213 18,509 437,198

1,112 455 389 174 561 6,063

1,471 790 371 260 723 7,177

1,838 1,010 433 280 963 9,263

2,846 1,409 884 633 1,411 18,011

1,961 1,032 531 435 982 15,478

148,555 153,370 45,387

157,245 193,107 42,786

188,982 223,023 46,299

160,261 187,885 37,749

148,150 250,069 38,979

2,375 2,946 742

2,774 3,786 617

3,554 4,965 745

6,889 10,051 1,071

4,759 9,928 790

132,402 125,700 89,210

127,601 134,713 130,824

153,181 150,096 155,028

152,060 124,731 109,104

159,143 128,301 149,754

... ... ...

... ... ...

... ... ...

... ... ...

... ... ...

114,371 127,648 48,035 27,676 29,581 8,590 7,567 42,581 61,713

129,756 146,082 53,099 28,390 35,811 8,469 8,455 58,244 71,194

149,813 171,877 58,056 38,619 39,939 10,177 13,229 57,403 81,719

129,898 146,085 57,425 23,532 28,957 6,159 3,820 41,883 65,413

154,167 160,646 57,451 32,591 32,343 6,619 3,729 36,046 72,255

1,851 2,846 364 627 375 1,116 636 721 1,259

3,219 2,688 401 430 439 1,142 1,898 2,020 1,790

3,601 3,910 380 684 689 1,146 2,209 3,192 2,303

9,911 5,128 847 1,161 965 1,051 829 5,116 3,645

6,473 6,255 800 1,117 833 879 689 2,987 2,868

End-June 2009

Source: Bank for International Settlements. 1All figures are adjusted for double-counting. Notional amounts outstanding have been adjusted by halving positions vis-à-vis other reporting dealers. Gross market values have been calculated as the sum of the total gross positive market value of contracts and the absolute value of the gross negative market value of contracts with nonreporting counterparties. 2Residual maturity. 3Counting both currency sides of each foreign exchange transaction means that the currency breakdown sums to twice the aggregate. 4Single-currency contracts only. 5Adjustments for double-counting are estimated.


21


Table 6. Exchange-Traded Derivative Financial Instruments: Notional Principal Amounts Outstanding and Annual Turnover 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

13,123.7 20,793.8 79.9 37.9 501.5 2,160.4 36,697.0 19,461.2 15,406.9 1,612.4 216.5

18,164.9 24,604.1 103.5 60.7 631.2 2,954.5 46,519.0 27,538.0 16,308.0 2,423.6 249.3

1,576.8 302.3 58.8 14.3 725.8 3,233.9 5,911.8 1,279.8 1,346.5 3,111.6 174.0

1,902.6 361.0 83.7 13.0 804.5 2,980.1 6,144.9 1,633.6 1,412.7 2,847.6 251.0

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

Notional principal amounts outstanding Interest rate futures Interest rate options Currency futures Currency options Stock market index futures Stock market index options Total North America Europe Asia-Pacific Other

7,924.9 3,755.5 36.7 22.4 340.1 1,508.6 13,588.2 6,931.0 4,008.8 2,398.7 249.7

7,907.8 4,734.2 74.4 21.4 368.5 1,141.1 14,247.5 8,168.6 4,195.0 1,597.7 286.2

9,269.6 12,492.8 65.6 27.4 333.7 1,560.7 23,749.8 16,188.9 6,141.7 1,308.0 111.2

9,955.6 11,759.5 47.0 27.4 350.8 1,687.9 23,828.2 13,706.5 8,801.4 1,191.2 129.1

(In millions of contracts traded)

Annual turnover Interest rate futures Interest rate options Currency futures Currency options Stock market index futures Stock market index options Total North America Europe Asia-Pacific Other Source: Bank for International Settlements.

22


672.7 118.0 37.1 6.8 204.9 322.5 1,362.0 462.8 604.7 207.7 86.8

781.2 107.7 43.5 7.0 225.2 481.5 1,646.0 461.3 718.6 331.3 134.9

1,057.5 199.6 49.1 10.5 337.1 1,148.2 2,801.9 675.7 957.7 985.1 183.4

1,152.1 240.3 42.6 16.1 530.6 2,235.5 4,217.2 912.3 1,075.1 2,073.1 156.7


2005

2006

2007

2008

Q1

2009 Q2

Q3

17,827.7 33,013.8 86.3 110.6 622.4 4,125.9 55,786.5 26,851.3 26,080.8 2,220.8 633.7

18,811.5 38,920.1 135.9 103.9 743.2 4,734.3 63,448.8 29,824.9 30,039.3 2,661.1 923.6

20,095.5 42,030.7 172.4 108.2 950.7 6,135.3 69,492.7 32,995.7 32,300.9 3,021.3 1,174.8

443.0 131.7 74.4 9.2 601.8 959.1 2,219.1 577.1 623.7 892.3 126.1

490.3 141.7 90.0 10.4 581.6 1,064.7 2,378.7 595.5 599.7 1,044.2 139.2

496.2 127.4 103.3 11.2 550.6 1,083.3 2,372.1 590.2 597.9 1,048.4 135.5

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

20,708.7 31,588.2 107.6 66.1 776.6 4,004.4 57,251.6 35,852.0 17,973.0 3,001.1 425.5

24,476.2 38,116.4 161.4 78.6 1,030.8 5,526.9 69,390.4 41,505.4 23,215.4 4,044.0 625.5

26,769.6 44,281.7 158.5 132.7 1,110.7 6,624.5 79,077.6 42,501.4 30,566.7 4,964.0 1,045.5

18,732.3 33,978.8 95.2 129.3 655.6 4,272.5 57,863.7 29,818.9 24,622.1 2,685.9 736.8

(In millions of contracts traded)

2,110.4 430.8 143.0 19.4 918.7 3,139.8 6,762.1 1,926.8 1,592.9 2,932.4 310.0

2,621.2 566.7 231.1 24.3 1,233.7 3,177.5 7,854.4 2,541.8 1,947.4 2,957.1 408.1

3,076.6 663.3 353.1 46.4 1,930.2 3,815.6 9,885.2 3,146.5 2,560.2 3,592.5 586.0

2,582.9 617.7 433.8 59.8 2,467.9 4,174.1 10,336.2 3,079.6 2,939.5 3,753.6 563.5


23


Table 7. United States: Sectoral Balance Sheets (In percent)

Corporate sector1

Debt/net worth Short-term debt/credit market debt Interest burden2 Household sector Net worth/assets Equity/total assets Equity/financial assets Net worth/disposable personal income Home mortgage debt/total assets Consumer credit/total assets Total debt/financial assets Debt-service burden3 Banking sector4 Credit quality Nonperforming loans5/total loans Net loan losses/average total loans Loan-loss reserve/total loans Net charge-offs/total loans Capital ratios Total risk-based capital Tier 1 risk-based capital Equity capital/total assets Core capital (leverage ratio) Profitability measures Return on average assets (ROA) Return on average equity (ROE) Net interest margin Efficiency ratio6

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

48.1 28.0 10.5

45.2 28.3 7.7

40.6 27.9 7.1

38.9 28.2 7.1

41.9 31.0 10.2

48.3 30.9 12.1

82.7 24.7 39.9 562.7 12.1 3.7 27.9 13.2

82.8 25.0 40.7 595.3 12.2 3.5 28.0 13.3

83.1 24.2 40.1 642.7 12.3 3.2 28.0 13.7

82.8 26.1 42.2 650.7 12.6 3.1 27.8 13.8

81.8 26.5 41.2 620.1 13.3 3.2 28.2 13.9

78.3 19.3 30.3 475.8 15.9 4.0 34.1 13.6

1.2 0.9 1.8 0.9

0.9 0.7 1.5 0.6

0.8 0.6 1.3 0.6

0.8 0.4 1.2 0.4

1.4 0.6 1.4 0.6

2.9 1.3 2.3 1.3

12.8 10.1 9.2 7.9

12.6 10.0 10.1 7.8

12.3 9.9 10.3 7.9

12.4 9.8 10.2 7.9

12.2 9.4 10.2 7.6

12.7 9.7 9.4 7.4

1.4 15.3 3.8 56.5

1.3 13.7 3.6 58.0

1.3 12.9 3.6 57.2

1.3 13.0 3.4 56.3

0.9 9.1 3.4 59.2

0.1 1.3 3.3 58.4

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Flow of Funds; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 1Nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business. 2Ratio of net interest payments to pre-tax income. 3Ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income. 4FDIC-insured commercial banks. 5Loans past due 90+ days and nonaccrual. 6Noninterest expense less amortization of intangible assets as a percent of net interest income plus noninterest income.

24



Table 8. Japan: Sectoral Balance Sheets1 (In percent)

Corporate sector2

Debt/shareholders’ equity (book value) Short-term debt/total debt Interest burden3 Debt/operating profits Memorandum item: Total debt/GDP4 Household sector Net worth/assets Equity Real estate Net worth/net disposable income Interest burden5 Memorandum items: Debt/equity Debt/real estate Debt/net disposable income Debt/net worth Equity/net worth Real estate/net worth Total debt/GDP4 Banking sector6 Credit quality Nonperforming loans7/total loans Capital ratio Stockholders’ equity/assets Profitability measures Return on equity (ROE)8

FY2003

FY2004

FY2005

FY2006

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

121.3 37.8 22.0 1,079.2

121.5 36.8 18.4 965.9

101.7 36.4 15.6 839.9

98.2 35.3 15.2 820.4

97.1 34.1 16.2 798.6

106.8 34.6 28.3 1,538.6

105.1 31.8 33.3 1,947.2

90.9

96.4

85.7

89.8

83.3

96.0

100.5

84.5 4.9 33.0 725.9 4.9

84.6 5.7 31.5 721.0 4.8

84.9 8.7 29.9 737.7 4.6

85.1 8.7 29.9 742.1 4.7

85.1 5.4 30.9 729.6 4.6

... ... ... ... 4.6

... ... ... ... ...

317.6 47.0 133.2 18.4 5.8 39.0 77.5

268.4 49.0 131.5 18.2 6.8 37.2 76.1

174.5 50.6 131.6 17.8 10.2 35.2 76.3

172.2 49.8 130.0 17.5 10.2 35.2 75.2

274.4 48.3 128.0 17.5 6.4 36.3 72.9

... ... ... ... ... ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ... ...

5.8

4.0

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.9

4.2

4.9

5.3

4.5

3.6

4.3

–2.7

4.1

11.3

8.5

6.1

–6.9

4.9

Sources: Ministry of Finance, Financial Statements of Corporations by Industries; Cabinet Office, Economic and Social Research Institute, Annual Report on National Accounts; Japanese Bankers Association, Financial Statements of All Banks; and Financial Services Agency, The Status of Nonperforming Loans. 1Data are fiscal year beginning April 1. Stock data on households are only available through FY2007. Data in FY2009 are those of the first half of 2009. 2All industries except finance and insurance. 3Interest payments as a percent of operating profits. 4Revised due to the change in GDP figures. 5Interest payments as a percent of disposable income. 6Data cover city banks, the former long-term credit banks, trust banks, regional banks I, and regional banks II. For FY2009, data refer to end-September 2009. 7Nonperforming loans are based on figures reported under the Financial Reconstruction Law. 8Net income as a percentage of stockholders’ equity (no adjustment for preferred stocks, etc.). For FY2009, the figure is estimated by doubling the net income in the first half of FY2009 (from April to September 2009).


25


Table 9. Europe: Sectoral Balance Sheets1 (In percent)

Corporate sector2 Debt/equity3

Short-term debt/total debt Interest burden4 Debt/operating profits Memorandum items: Financial assets/equity Liquid assets/short-term debt Household sector Net worth/assets Equity/net worth Equity/net financial assets Interest burden5 Memorandum items: Nonfinancial assets/net worth Debt/net financial assets Debt/income Banking sector6 Credit quality Nonperforming loans/total loans Loan-loss reserve/nonperforming loans Loan-loss reserve/total loans Capital ratios Equity capital/total assets Capital funds/liabilities Profitability measures Return on assets, or ROA (after tax) Return on equity, or ROE (after tax) Net interest margin Efficiency ratio7

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

70.9 33.8 15.0 304.2

69.0 33.9 14.44 302.8

70.4 36.4 14.7 318.2

74.4 37.0 15.7 344.4

76.2 39.2 17.8 357.5

89.5 35.4 18.0 390.7

1.4 86.0

1.4 95.1

1.5 96.7

1.5 95.4

1.6 97.6

1.7 102.8

83.8 11.8 34.4 5.7

81.5 13.9 44.9 5.4

84.5 12.3 34.8 5.4

84.3 12.1 34.5 5.3

84.5 11.7 33.6 5.4

83.4 10.8 32.1 5.4

65.6 52.7 99.9

68.0 70.8 104.9

64.6 48.3 105.9

64.9 48.0 109.0

65.3 48.1 111.3

66.3 54.5 108.0

2.3 73.0 2.4

2.1 72.8 1.8

2.1 72.5 1.5

1.9 67.6 1.4

2.0 63.0 1.3

3.0 58.4 1.7

2.9 5.0

3.5 5.7

3.7 5.9

3.7 5.7

3.6 5.8

2.8 4.9

0.5 11.3 1.5 73.1

0.5 13.5 1.2 64.8

0.5 14.4 1.0 60.9

0.6 15.6 0.9 59.8

0.5 12.9 0.9 63.0

–0.2 –6.0 0.9 76.1

Sources: Banque de France; INSEE; Bundesbank; U.K. National Statistics Office; ©2003 Bureau van Dijk Electronic Publishing-Bankscope; and IMF staff estimates. 1GDP-weighted average for France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, unless otherwise noted. 2Nonfinancial corporations. 3Corporate equity adjusted for changes in asset valuation. 4Interest payments as percent of gross operating profits. 5Interest payments as percent of disposable income. 6Fifty largest European banks. Data availability may restrict coverage to less than 50 banks for specific indicators. 7Cost-to-income ratio.

26


MDC-GFSR (22079)

STATISTICAL APPENDIX emerging and other markets

Figure 15. Emerging Market Volatility Measures 90

Emerging Market Equity Volatility (In percent)

80

70 60

50

40 MSCI Emerging Markets index1

30 20

10 0 1998

2000

02

04

06

08

Emerging Market Debt Volatility (In percent)

60

50

40

30

20 2

EMBI Global index

10

1998

2000

02

04

06

08

0

Sources: Morgan Stanley Capital International; JPMorgan & Chase Co.; and IMF staff estimates. Data utilize the MSCI Emerging Markets index in U.S. dollars to calculate 30-day rolling volatilities. Data utilize the EMBI Global total return index in U.S. dollars to calculate 30-day rolling volatilities.

1 2


27

MDC-GFSR (22079)


Figure 16. Emerging Market Debt Cross-Correlation Measures Average Cross-Correlations, 2002–101

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

2002

04

06

08

10

Average Regional Cross-Correlations, 2002–102

0.7 Asia

Overall

0.6

Latin America

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Europe, Middle East, and Africa

0 –0.1 –0.2 2002

04

06

08

10

Average Cross-Correlations, 2008–101

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

2008

09

10

Average Regional Cross-Correlations, 2008–102

0.7 0.6

Overall

Latin America

0.5 0.4

Asia

0.3 0.2 0.1 0 –0.1

Europe, Middle East, and Africa

–0.2 2008

09

10

Sources: JPMorgan Chase & Co.; and IMF staff estimates. Thirty-day moving simple average across all pair-wise return correlations of 20 constituents included in the EMBI Global. Simple average of all pair-wise correlations of all markets in given region with all other bond markets, regardless of region.

1 2

28



Table 10. MSCI Equity Market Indices Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

2007

2008

2009

12Month High

570.0 2,171.4 1,107.5 1,833.4 1,280.4 400.9 2,885.8 764.4 238.7 41.3 229.8 290.4 190.2 222.5 62.6 174.9 163.4 124.9

761.3 2,974.7 1,517.3 2,552.3 1,693.6 601.7 3,885.4 842.7 317.3 55.1 366.2 444.1 237.9 283.3 64.0 215.8 204.1 188.5

914.1 3,689.3 1,910.6 3,232.6 1,786.9 807.8 4,567.4 1,211.8 376.6 59.2 435.9 606.1 319.7 322.4 84.8 246.1 244.4 223.4

989.5 4,116.7 2,101.0 3,624.5 2,051.6 790.5 5,138.1 1,217.7 401.7 64.8 468.5 634.6 327.1 341.8 82.0 269.0 264.2 225.8

912.7 2,995.7 3,084.1 2,205.4 1,492.4 549.8 5,483.3 671.4 371.5 52.1 390.6 449.3 336.7 288.6 141.2 263.2 278.8 189.7

1,245.6 4,400.4 2,918.8 3,867.2 1,802.8 619.3 5,992.1 1,248.7 513.7 84.9 668.9 677.6 437.5 408.6 187.1 363.4 294.0 267.4

567.0 2,077.7 1,304.0 1,638.2 1,130.9 447.9 3,356.8 719.3 235.8 40.8 233.6 287.5 193.1 231.3 46.1 167.9 150.8 132.8

989.5 4,116.7 2,101.0 3,624.5 2,051.6 790.5 5,138.1 1,217.7 401.7 64.8 468.5 634.6 327.1 341.8 82.0 269.0 264.2 225.8

989.5 4,210.5 2,226.5 3,729.4 2,051.6 849.1 5,290.7 1,355.5 401.7 67.2 468.5 641.5 327.1 350.7 89.5 272.3 264.2 235.5

475.1 1,827.8 976.1 1,540.0 1,130.9 369.4 2,335.1 558.5 196.9 34.7 187.1 233.6 141.1 209.6 37.1 155.6 135.1 115.3

1,338.5 5,195.4 4,187.7 4,727.6 2,057.9 849.1 6,775.7 1,488.3 571.9 137.2 694.2 894.5 491.3 458.4 211.7 697.6 529.3 651.7

175.3 185.6 152.6 84.1 178.1 41.2 306.7 73.5 104.1 12.9 71.2 42.6 29.0 54.2 25.3 76.4 108.7 44.0

188.9 384.0 511.2 304.0 192.2 151.3 414.0 450.7 418.4 289.4 239.4

248.5 486.0 689.9 505.0 221.3 155.0 482.0 608.7 569.6 378.3 366.6

297.3 584.9 838.4 717.4 242.9 153.8 447.8 799.6 720.3 429.9 484.5

324.1 544.6 785.5 742.7 275.9 149.9 416.2 902.4 795.3 468.0 528.1

364.4 546.5 829.2 1,003.0 194.4 209.1 361.9 1,223.4 1,250.3 443.1 441.7

458.2 828.9 1,284.0 1,137.4 264.0 252.9 521.2 1,501.2 1,536.4 508.3 751.1

198.2 455.5 591.7 427.1 182.4 162.5 453.6 657.5 397.0 305.1 275.0

324.1 544.6 785.5 742.7 275.9 149.9 416.2 902.4 795.3 468.0 528.1

327.5 609.5 909.1 803.2 276.3 177.5 487.6 979.1 844.0 468.0 532.6

159.3 300.9 426.7 234.6 177.2 142.5 369.4 363.2 328.9 229.1 199.0

473.8 929.2 1,468.8 1,304.8 284.4 362.2 703.4 1,671.9 1,641.5 578.2 789.8

80.8 54.4 61.3 77.3 67.6 52.6 99.4 98.2 30.6 98.3 66.1

474.9 338.8 126.4 233.1 197.1 378.1 181.8 128.9 164.6 211.9

639.7 409.4 169.8 341.0 253.4 436.0 265.1 158.9 199.7 276.1

739.8 493.1 194.3 435.2 303.1 464.0 322.5 208.7 217.6 306.7

795.7 549.3 204.2 489.4 349.3 525.7 342.8 228.0 220.0 324.3

760.0 442.1 210.7 422.6 266.2 356.3 328.8 231.8 218.0 282.1

1,154.2 657.9 351.1 490.9 330.2 458.8 424.0 231.5 328.0 379.2

437.0 314.2 130.6 229.8 209.6 375.2 194.1 111.4 180.7 214.5

795.7 549.3 204.2 489.4 349.3 525.7 342.8 228.0 220.0 324.3

829.4 549.4 205.0 489.4 349.3 526.6 352.4 228.0 229.6 324.3

389.0 297.6 101.9 187.2 173.8 353.3 147.3 102.0 145.5 187.2

1,255.4 750.5 403.8 527.8 349.3 526.6 473.0 300.0 343.2 389.1

81.7 86.0 52.6 74.1 80.4 83.3 74.6 73.1 62.9 63.1

2009 Emerging markets Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Asia China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Taiwan Province of China Thailand Europe, Middle East, & Africa Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Jordan Morocco Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Sectors Energy Materials Industrials Consumer discretionary Consumer staple Health care Financials Information technology Telecommunications Utilities

End of Period

12Month Low

AllTime High1

AllTime Low1


29


Table 10 (continued) Period on Period Percent Change 2009 Emerging markets Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Asia China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Taiwan Province of China Thailand Europe, Middle East, & Africa Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Jordan Morocco Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Sectors Energy Materials Industrials Consumer discretionary Consumer staple Health care Financials Information technology Telecommunications Utilities

30

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

End of period 2007

0.5 4.5 –15.1 11.9 13.2 –10.5 –14.0 6.3 1.2 1.3 –1.6 1.0 –1.5 –3.8 36.0 4.2 8.3 –5.9 –4.7 –15.7 –13.6 –28.8 5.4 –6.8 –8.7 –31.4 5.4 –5.2 –13.0

33.6 37.0 37.0 39.2 32.3 50.1 34.6 10.2 32.9 33.3 59.3 52.9 25.0 27.3 2.1 23.4 24.9 50.9 31.6 26.5 35.0 66.1 15.1 2.4 16.4 35.0 36.1 30.7 53.2

20.1 24.0 25.9 26.7 5.5 34.2 17.6 43.8 18.7 7.3 19.0 36.5 34.4 13.8 32.6 14.1 19.8 18.5 19.6 20.3 21.5 42.0 9.8 –0.8 –7.1 31.4 26.5 13.6 32.2

8.3 11.6 10.0 12.1 14.8 –2.1 12.5 0.5 6.7 9.5 7.5 4.7 2.3 6.0 –3.3 9.3 8.1 1.0 9.0 –6.9 –6.3 3.5 13.6 –2.5 –7.1 12.9 10.4 8.9 9.0

29.2 39.3 66.1 40.5 26.4 10.9 39.0 52.1 29.8 78.1 49.0 69.6 11.2 33.1 –1.7 55.4 16.3 6.8 21.3 29.6 14.8 31.1 –7.1 –32.5 62.6 35.3 53.7 17.3 –9.2

8.7 7.8 –3.2 1.4 –5.9 0.8 –6.3 15.8 –8.9 –1.2

34.7 20.8 34.3 46.3 28.6 15.3 45.8 23.3 21.3 30.3

15.7 20.5 14.5 27.6 19.6 6.4 21.6 31.3 9.0 11.1

7.6 11.4 5.1 12.5 15.2 13.3 6.3 9.2 1.1 5.8

38.5 35.9 35.0 10.9 35.1 –9.4 36.7 10.9 37.2 43.2


2008

2009

36.5 46.9 –5.4 75.3 20.8 12.6 9.3 86.0 38.3 63.1 71.2 50.8 30.0 41.5 32.5 38.0 5.4 40.9 25.8 51.7 54.8 13.4 35.8 20.9 44.0 22.7 22.9 14.7 70.0

–54.5 –52.8 –55.3 –57.6 –37.3 –27.7 –44.0 –42.4 –54.1 –51.9 –65.1 –57.6 –55.9 –43.4 –75.4 –53.8 –48.7 –50.3 –56.7 –45.1 –53.9 –62.4 –30.9 –35.8 –13.0 –56.2 –74.2 –40.0 –63.4

74.5 98.1 61.1 121.3 81.4 76.5 53.1 69.3 70.3 58.8 100.5 120.8 69.4 47.8 78.1 60.2 75.1 70.0 63.5 19.6 32.8 73.9 51.3 –7.7 –8.3 37.3 100.3 53.4 92.0

51.9 48.8 66.6 16.2 24.1 28.8 28.9 –0.1 50.4 34.4

–62.1 –52.2 –62.8 –53.2 –36.5 –18.2 –54.2 –51.9 –44.9 –43.4

82.1 74.8 56.3 113.0 66.7 40.1 76.6 104.7 21.8 51.2


Table 10 (concluded) Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

2007

2008

2009

12Month High

Advanced markets Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong SAR Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Singapore Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States

805.2 460.6 933.4 665.3 986.7 2,755.9 330.6 1,052.1 1,066.4 298.3 4,653.2 107.8 248.4 1,741.9 1,210.9 63.8 1,561.3 99.8 1,930.3 397.3 3,070.1 2,430.4 694.3 759.2

964.1 586.8 1,216.1 823.5 1,280.2 3,689.8 422.9 1,246.2 1,281.4 408.4 6,226.3 114.9 312.6 2,141.5 1,486.6 78.6 1,901.7 121.7 2,763.0 533.7 4,039.0 2,799.5 867.1 874.7

1,127.0 771.4 1,560.9 1,058.5 1,507.0 4,355.5 476.9 1,573.4 1,579.0 541.8 7,079.2 136.1 395.3 2,265.6 1,943.1 97.3 2,406.1 146.2 3,261.3 672.7 5,064.5 3,433.2 1,018.5 1,005.9

1,168.5 804.1 1,406.0 1,074.5 1,574.2 4,232.7 460.2 1,599.6 1,613.4 418.3 7,289.8 132.4 383.5 2,201.7 2,010.9 96.4 2,760.6 146.8 3,555.7 672.4 5,247.0 3,564.5 1,081.9 1,061.1

1,483.6 799.0 3,248.9 2,260.7 1,512.9 4,859.4 679.3 2,051.6 1,902.1 801.7 7,249.8 565.4 636.0 3,208.3 2,486.8 147.9 3,386.3 193.3 3,399.8 716.0 6,839.0 4,079.3 1,521.5 1,336.3

1,588.8 998.8 3,273.2 2,141.6 1,930.1 6,036.6 985.1 2,275.1 2,520.7 1,036.1 9,966.9 441.8 653.0 3,034.4 2,922.6 153.9 4,348.9 234.0 4,212.7 864.0 6,746.0 4,237.3 1,593.4 1,390.9

920.2 476.4 1,015.9 696.5 1,030.9 3,129.8 429.2 1,253.2 1,330.0 341.2 4,696.9 120.4 312.8 2,108.2 1,458.6 67.4 1,512.6 108.5 2,125.4 492.7 3,276.0 2,899.6 787.7 854.4

1,168.5 804.1 1,406.0 1,074.5 1,574.2 4,232.7 460.2 1,599.6 1,613.4 418.3 7,289.8 132.4 383.5 2,201.7 2,010.9 96.4 2,760.6 146.8 3,555.7 672.4 5,247.0 3,564.5 1,081.9 1,061.1

1,178.0 828.0 1,656.2 1,147.7 1,588.4 4,523.4 506.8 1,649.0 1,664.2 607.6 7,477.7 145.5 420.3 2,340.1 2,081.9 103.2 2,792.0 156.3 3,555.7 711.3 5,679.9 3,627.8 1,118.1 1,073.3

688.6 367.3 708.9 551.3 823.8 2,419.2 271.8 902.4 913.1 239.1 4,065.0 86.3 190.0 1,579.5 1,053.3 52.3 1,279.6 88.6 1,614.4 326.9 2,570.3 2,078.6 600.0 645.4

1,682.4 1,127.4 3,661.2 2,496.2 2,144.6 6,380.6 1,329.0 2,350.4 2,538.9 1,053.1 10,589.5 606.8 689.7 4,149.2 3,070.7 178.7 4,992.1 246.4 4,664.3 909.2 8,152.0 4,449.8 1,737.3 1,493.0

423.1 176.2 606.1 497.6 304.7 708.5 33.2 422.2 467.9 157.5 1,427.6 86.3 132.0 1,385.4 558.3 49.5 534.0 66.0 893.9 101.2 737.9 527.2 425.9 273.7

Advanced markets Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong SAR Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Singapore Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States

–12.5 –3.3 –8.1 –4.5 –4.3 –11.9 –23.0 –16.0 –19.8 –12.6 –0.9 –10.5 –20.6 –17.4 –17.0 –5.3 3.2 –8.0 –9.2 –19.4 –6.3 –16.2 –11.9 –11.1

19.7 27.4 30.3 23.8 29.7 33.9 27.9 18.4 20.2 36.9 33.8 6.5 25.8 22.9 22.8 23.1 21.8 21.9 43.1 34.3 31.6 15.2 24.9 15.2

16.9 31.5 28.4 28.5 17.7 18.0 12.8 26.3 23.2 32.7 13.7 18.5 26.4 5.8 30.7 23.8 26.5 20.2 18.0 26.0 25.4 22.6 17.5 15.0

3.7 4.2 –9.9 1.5 4.5 –2.8 –3.5 1.7 2.2 –22.8 3.0 –2.7 –3.0 –2.8 3.5 –0.9 14.7 0.4 9.0 0.0 3.6 3.8 6.2 5.5

27.0 68.8 38.4 54.3 52.7 35.2 7.2 27.6 21.3 22.6 55.2 9.9 22.6 4.4 37.9 43.0 82.5 35.4 67.3 36.5 60.2 22.9 37.3 24.2

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

2009

End of Period

Period on Period Percent Change 18.0 7.1 –42.1 27.1 25.0 –52.3 34.8 0.7 –69.0 33.3 –5.3 –67.5 16.2 27.6 –46.6 36.8 24.2 –48.2 27.1 45.0 –56.4 31.7 10.9 –44.9 33.0 32.5 –47.2 31.6 29.2 –67.1 26.3 37.5 –52.9 43.9 –21.9 –72.7 28.1 2.7 –52.1 5.1 –5.4 –30.5 28.2 17.5 –50.1 10.0 4.0 –56.2 41.6 28.4 –65.2 43.4 21.0 –53.6 41.9 23.9 –49.5 44.8 20.7 –43.0 40.5 –1.4 –51.4 25.9 3.9 –31.6 26.2 4.7 –50.6 13.2 4.1 –38.6

12Month Low

AllTime High1

AllTime Low1

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Note: Data are indices in U.S. dollar terms. The country and regional classifications used in this table follow the conventions of MSCI, and do not necessarily conform to IMF country classifications or regional groupings. 1From 1990 or initiation of the index.


31


Table 11. Foreign Exchange Rates (Units per U.S. dollar)

2009 Q1

Q2

2009

12Month High

12Month Low

AllTime High1

AllTime Low1

End of Period Q3

Q4

2006

2007

2008

Emerging markets Argentina Brazil Chile China Colombia Egypt Hungary India Indonesia Jordan Malaysia Mexico Morocco Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Russia South Africa Thailand Turkey Venezuela

3.72 2.32 583.20 6.83 2,548.30 5.63 232.52 50.73 11,700.00 0.71 3.65 14.17 8.40 80.51 3.15 48.33 3.50 33.95 9.50 35.50 1.67 2.15

3.80 1.95 533.65 6.83 2,143.15 5.59 194.10 47.91 10,208.00 0.71 3.52 13.19 8.04 81.43 3.01 48.14 3.17 31.15 7.71 34.06 1.54 2.15

3.84 1.77 549.70 6.83 1,919.73 5.50 183.84 48.11 9,665.00 0.71 3.46 13.51 7.75 83.15 2.88 47.34 2.87 30.02 7.51 33.44 1.48 2.15

3.80 1.74 507.45 6.83 2,043.79 5.48 189.00 46.53 9,404.00 0.71 3.43 13.09 7.90 84.25 2.89 46.16 2.86 30.04 7.40 33.37 1.50 2.15

3.06 2.14 533.38 7.81 2,240.00 5.71 190.29 44.26 8,994.00 0.71 3.53 10.82 11.70 60.88 3.20 49.01 2.90 26.33 7.01 35.45 1.42 2.15

3.15 1.78 497.95 7.30 2,018.00 5.53 173.42 39.42 9,400.00 0.71 3.31 10.91 10.43 61.63 3.00 41.23 2.47 24.63 6.86 29.80 1.17 2.15

3.45 2.31 638.50 6.83 2,248.58 5.49 190.10 48.80 11,120.00 0.71 3.47 13.67 9.47 79.10 3.13 47.52 2.97 29.40 9.53 34.74 1.54 2.15

3.80 1.74 507.45 6.83 2,043.79 5.48 189.00 46.53 9,404.00 0.71 3.43 13.09 7.90 84.25 2.89 46.16 2.86 30.04 7.40 33.37 1.50 2.15

3.45 1.70 492.65 6.82 1,824.33 5.44 176.13 46.09 9,340.00 0.70 3.36 12.64 7.55 78.17 2.85 46.00 2.71 28.69 7.24 33.10 1.44 2.15

3.86 2.45 641.14 6.85 2,608.85 5.68 252.45 51.97 12,100.00 0.71 3.73 15.57 8.79 84.75 3.26 49.03 3.90 36.37 10.64 36.28 1.81 2.15

0.98 0.00 295.18 4.73 689.21 3.29 90.20 16.92 1,977.00 0.64 2.44 2.68 7.21 21.18 1.28 23.10 1.72 0.98 2.50 23.15 0.00 0.56

3.86 3.95 759.75 8.73 2,980.00 6.25 317.56 51.97 16,650.00 0.72 4.71 15.57 12.06 84.75 3.65 56.46 4.71 36.37 12.45 55.50 1.81 2.15

Advanced markets Australia2 Canada Czech Republic Denmark Euro area2 Hong Kong SAR Japan Korea New Zealand2 Norway Singapore Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom2

0.69 1.26 20.65 5.62 1.33 7.75 98.96 1,383.10 0.56 6.74 1.52 8.25 1.14 1.43

0.81 1.16 18.49 5.31 1.40 7.75 96.36 1,273.80 0.65 6.43 1.45 7.70 1.09 1.65

0.88 1.07 17.25 5.08 1.46 7.75 89.70 1,178.05 0.72 5.77 1.41 6.96 1.03 1.61

0.90 1.05 18.47 5.20 1.43 7.75 93.02 1,164.00 0.72 5.76 1.40 7.16 1.03 1.62

0.79 1.17 20.83 5.65 1.32 7.78 119.07 930.00 0.70 6.24 1.53 6.85 1.22 1.96

0.88 1.00 18.20 5.11 1.46 7.80 111.71 936.05 0.77 5.44 1.44 6.47 1.13 1.98

0.70 1.22 19.22 5.33 1.40 7.75 90.64 1,259.55 0.58 6.95 1.43 7.83 1.07 1.46

0.90 1.05 18.47 5.20 1.43 7.75 93.02 1,164.00 0.72 5.76 1.40 7.16 1.03 1.62

0.94 1.02 17.00 4.92 1.51 7.75 86.41 1,152.93 0.76 5.53 1.38 6.78 1.00 1.70

0.63 1.30 23.49 5.95 1.25 7.76 100.99 1,570.65 0.49 7.22 1.55 9.32 1.19 1.38

0.98 0.92 14.43 4.67 1.60 7.70 80.63 683.60 0.82 4.96 1.35 5.09 0.98 2.11

0.48 1.61 42.17 9.00 0.83 7.83 159.90 1,962.50 0.39 9.58 1.91 11.03 1.82 1.37

32



Table 11 (concluded) Period on Period Percent Change 2009 Emerging markets Argentina Brazil Chile China Colombia Egypt Hungary India Indonesia Jordan Malaysia Mexico Morocco Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Russia South Africa Thailand Turkey Venezuela Advanced markets Australia Canada Czech Republic Denmark Euro area Hong Kong SAR Japan Korea New Zealand Norway Singapore Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006

End of period 2007 2008

2009

–7.1 –0.4 9.5 –0.1 –11.8 –2.4 –18.2 –3.8 –5.0 0.0 –4.9 –3.5 12.7 –1.7 –0.6 –1.7 –15.1 –13.4 –6.9 –2.1 –7.5 0.0

–2.0 19.0 9.3 0.0 18.9 0.6 19.8 5.9 14.6 0.1 3.6 7.5 4.4 –1.1 4.9 0.4 10.4 9.0 11.7 4.2 8.1 0.0

–1.2 10.5 –2.9 0.1 11.6 1.7 5.6 –0.4 5.6 0.0 1.7 –2.4 3.8 –2.1 4.3 1.7 10.3 3.8 7.2 1.9 3.7 0.0

1.1 1.3 8.3 0.0 –6.1 0.3 –2.7 3.4 2.8 0.2 1.0 3.2 –1.9 –1.3 –0.2 2.5 0.4 –0.1 –6.6 0.2 –0.9 0.0

–1.0 9.4 –4.0 3.4 2.1 0.5 11.9 1.8 9.3 –0.1 7.1 –1.7 2.0 –1.8 7.1 8.3 11.8 9.2 17.9 15.7 –4.7 0.0

–2.8 20 7.1 7.0 11.0 3.2 9.7 12.3 –4.3 0.0 6.7 –0.8 12.3 –1.2 6.6 18.9 17.5 6.9 14.4 19.0 21.1 0.0

–8.8 –23.1 –22 6.9 –10.3 0.7 –8.8 –19.2 –15.5 0.0 –4.6 –20.2 10.1 –22.1 –4.4 –13.2 –16.8 –16.2 –5.3 –14.2 –24.0 0.0

–9.1 32.7 25.8 0.0 10.0 0.2 0.6 4.9 18.2 0.2 1.2 4.4 19.8 –6.1 8.5 2.9 3.7 –2.1 4.1 4.1 2.8 0.0

–1.6 –3.3 –6.9 –5.2 –5.2 0.0 –8.4 –8.9 –3.4 3.2 –6.1 –5.0 –6.2 –1.9

16.6 8.4 11.7 5.9 5.9 0.0 2.7 8.6 15.4 4.8 5.2 7.1 4.9 14.9

9.5 8.7 7.2 4.4 4.3 0.0 7.4 8.1 12.0 11.4 2.7 10.7 5.6 –2.1

1.7 1.5 –6.6 –2.2 –2.2 –0.1 –3.6 1.2 –0.1 0.2 0.5 –2.8 –0.1 0.2

7.6 –0.3 17.9 11.5 11.4 –0.3 –1.1 8.6 3.0 8.1 8.4 15.9 7.7 13.7

11.0 16.8 14.4 10.5 10.5 –0.3 6.6 –0.6 8.8 14.7 6.5 5.9 7.5 1.3

–19.7 –18.1 –5.3 –4.0 –4.2 0.6 23.2 –25.7 –24.4 –21.8 0.7 –17.4 6.1 –26.5

27.8 15.7 4.1 2.5 2.5 –0.1 –2.6 8.2 24.8 20.6 2.0 9.4 3.8 10.7

Source: Bloomberg L.P. 1High value indicates value of greatest appreciation against the U.S. dollar; low value indicates value of greatest depreciation against the U.S. dollar. “All-Time” refers to the period since 1990 or initiation of the currency. 2The exchange rate for Thailand is an onshore rate. 3U.S. dollars per unit.


33


Table 12. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Total Returns Index Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

12Month High

376

417

460

467

350

384

409

364

467

469

357

469

63

43 650 211 304 156 283 138 367 644 621 165 397

74 692 220 332 181 355 151 396 729 667 194 473

99 744 230 361 220 440 173 423 804 736 214 590

109 746 232 359 230 480 174 426 801 734 221 548

83 505 177 256 156 636 134 333 567 514 151 562

126 580 185 283 184 561 152 353 637 591 177 634

112 633 197 309 198 811 165 377 691 633 188 563

47 670 205 308 120 220 122 379 639 601 162 338

109 746 232 359 230 480 174 426 801 734 221 548

111 759 235 371 230 481 177 438 838 756 226 594

41 627 193 296 120 220 122 352 629 601 160 338

194 759 235 371 230 889 177 438 838 756 226 638

36 68 98 70 83 61 95 58 56 52 38 59

317 135 249 435 113

324 162 264 453 121

336 187 273 488 133

338 193 275 499 131

260 133 215 337 101

271 154 224 394 112

289 159 240 425 117

314 131 244 403 99

338 193 275 499 131

343 194 278 499 135

311 121 239 401 98

343 194 278 499 135

98 90 64 81 77

683 187 149 99 272 79 379 544 99 384 165 384 195 334 451

719 191 161 128 287 110 392 602 121 404 176 424 326 370 500

808 197 182 154 304 145 419 670 140 438 184 456 379 410 548

828 200 185 161 319 140 418 699 142 446 184 476 374 408 566

643 155 148 ... 212 112 327 538 108 337 143 336 334 316 413

676 161 153 102 215 123 340 568 117 349 149 356 353 354 443

713 171 168 115 236 111 373 607 121 373 160 392 372 372 476

646 178 149 81 249 57 373 494 82 357 159 383 172 331 425

828 200 185 161 319 140 418 699 142 446 184 476 374 408 566

835 200 186 161 319 152 426 702 142 449 185 477 389 416 566

646 178 142 81 249 57 370 494 82 357 159 351 151 321 421

835 200 186 161 319 160 426 702 142 449 185 477 389 416 566

80 87 97 64 99 49 71 26 76 99 98 91 100 62 72

2009 EMBI Global Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Mexico Panama Peru Uruguay Venezuela Asia China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Europe, Middle East, & Africa Bulgaria Egypt Hungary Iraq Lebanon Pakistan Poland Russia Serbia1 South Africa Tunisia Turkey Ukraine Latin America Non-Latin America

34


End of Period

12Month Low

AllTime High1

AllTime Low1


Table 12 (concluded) Period on Percent Change 2009 EMBI Global Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Mexico Panama Peru Uruguay Venezuela Asia China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Europe, Middle East, & Africa Bulgaria Egypt Hungary Iraq Lebanon Pakistan Poland Russia Serbia1 South Africa Tunisia Turkey Ukraine Latin America Non-Latin America

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005

2006

3.4

10.8

10.2

1.5

10.7

9.9

–9.0 –2.9 2.6 –1.1 29.4 28.7 12.5 –3.4 0.9 3.3 1.7 17.6

73.7 6.4 4.5 9.2 16.0 25.2 9.9 8.0 13.2 7.5 17.8 19.1

33.5 7.5 4.4 8.7 21.7 24.2 14.2 6.9 10.2 10.3 10.3 24.7

10.2 0.2 1.0 –0.7 4.4 9.1 0.6 0.7 –0.3 –0.2 3.5 –7.2

2.7 13.2 3.2 12.4 24.1 13.2 8.8 8.1 11.1 6.0 16.3 16.1

1.1 3.3 2.0 7.9 13.8

2.2 19.6 6.4 4.0 7.2

3.7 15.3 3.1 7.7 9.9

0.6 3.2 0.7 2.4 –0.9

5.7 5.3 –0.3 22.3 9.3 39.5 1.6 10.1 21.6 7.5 3.7 0.2 13.4 0.8

5.2 1.8 8.6 29.7 5.5 39.4 3.3 10.6 22.4 5.4 6.7 10.3 67.2 10.8

12.5 3.1 12.7 20.5 5.9 31.8 6.9 11.2 15.5 8.4 4.4 7.6 16.2 10.8

6.0

10.8

9.8

End of period 2007

2008

2009

6.3

–10.9

28.2

51.3 14.8 4.1 10.7 18.0 –11.8 14.1 6.0 12.3 14.8 17.3 12.8

–11.1 9.1 6.4 9.1 7.3 44.6 8.0 6.9 8.5 7.1 6.6 –11.2

–57.9 5.8 4.5 –0.5 –39.0 –72.9 –25.6 0.7 –7.6 –5.1 –14.0 –39.9

132.8 11.4 13.1 16.7 90.8 118.3 42.1 12.3 25.4 22.2 36.7 62.1

3.0 9.7 3.7 20.6 ...

4.1 15.9 4.3 16.8 10.6

6.7 3.0 7.4 7.9 4.5

8.4 –17.3 1.4 –5.1 –15.3

7.7 46.9 12.6 23.7 32.8

2.4 1.5 1.7 4.4 5.0 –3.5 –0.3 4.4 1.5 1.7 0.1 4.3 –1.1 –0.3

2.1 3.8 2.8 ... 8.7 4.5 5.0 13.3 ... 4.3 3.7 9.5 7.7 10.9

5.1 3.8 3.7 ... 1.6 10.3 3.8 5.5 8.3 3.7 3.8 6.1 5.9 11.9

5.6 5.9 9.4 12.4 9.9 –10.0 9.9 6.9 3.7 6.8 7.8 10.2 5.2 5.2

–9.5 4.2 –11.2 –29.9 5.3 –48.8 –0.1 –18.5 –32.6 –4.3 –0.9 –2.3 –53.8 –11.1

28.2 12.1 24.2 99.5 28.1 147.4 12.0 41.4 74.5 24.8 15.7 24.1 117.9 23.3

3.1

10.6

7.2

7.5

–10.7

33.0

Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co. Note: The country and regional classifications used in this table follow the conventions of JPMorgan, and do not necessarily conform to IMF country classifications or regional groupings. 1Data prior to 2006 refer to Serbia and Montenegro.


35


Table 13. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads (In basis points)

EMBI Global Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Mexico Panama Peru Uruguay Venezuela Asia China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Europe, Middle East, & Africa Bulgaria Egypt Hungary Iraq Lebanon Pakistan Poland Russia Serbia1 South Africa Tunisia Turkey Ukraine Latin America Non-Latin America

36

12Month Low

AllTime High1

AllTime Low1

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

12Month High

657

433

337

294

237

171

255

724

294

726

288

1,631

151

1,894 424 286 486 1,118 3,568 670 441 481 425 636 1,570

1,062 282 161 301 858 1,322 492 280 277 272 383 1,208

784 234 139 223 487 940 369 234 214 205 321 904

660 189 95 198 405 769 326 192 166 165 238 1,041

504 308 80 244 378 661 239 143 239 257 298 313

216 190 84 161 196 920 159 115 146 118 185 183

410 220 151 195 281 614 199 172 184 178 243 523

1,704 429 343 498 1,605 4,731 854 434 539 509 685 1,864

660 189 95 198 405 769 326 192 166 165 238 1,041

1,960 466 411 540 1,605 4,731 854 485 539 509 685 1,864

659 189 95 176 405 769 326 192 159 161 238 875

7,222 2,451 411 1,076 1,785 5,069 928 1,149 769 1,061 1,982 2,658

185 138 52 95 122 436 99 89 114 95 133 161

210 742 344 432 574

122 433 167 324 379

87 295 174 265 296

64 230 136 206 314

68 269 82 302 190

51 153 66 155 95

120 275 119 207 203

228 762 370 546 747

64 230 136 206 314

234 888 370 550 748

38 227 130 203 256

364 1,143 1,141 993 1,101

38 136 65 132 89

591 190 540 1,053 599 1,700 319 630 929 426 445 528 2,777 695 612

431 150 373 675 459 1,037 219 418 509 292 245 339 1,226 464 397

238 100 220 523 407 641 148 299 382 197 168 290 892 372 297

179 –3 186 447 287 688 124 203 333 149 189 197 989 355 224

90 58 74 … 246 198 62 118 238 87 81 223 184 272 179

66 52 58 526 395 154 47 99 186 84 83 207 172 180 159

153 178 84 569 493 535 67 157 304 164 140 239 303 275 227

674 385 504 1,282 794 2,112 314 805 1,224 562 464 534 2,771 746 699

179 –3 186 447 287 688 124 203 333 149 189 197 989 355 224

674 385 613 1,293 800 2,159 344 805 1,224 562 483 633 3,660 747 705

169 –3 185 447 287 550 111 203 333 149 137 197 769 342 224

1,679 646 613 1,398 1,204 2,225 410 7,063 1,351 805 656 1,196 3,660 1,532 1,812

42 –3 –29 376 111 122 17 87 134 50 48 168 125 157 142

2009


End of Period


Table 13 (concluded) Period on Percent Change 2009 EMBI Global Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Mexico Panama Peru Uruguay Venezuela Asia China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Europe, Middle East, & Africa Bulgaria Egypt Hungary Iraq Lebanon Pakistan Poland Russia Serbia 1 South Africa Tunisia Turkey Ukraine Latin America Non-Latin America

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005

2006

–68

–224

–96

–43

–110

–66

190 –5 –57 –12 –487 –1,163 –184 7 –58 –84 –49 –294

–832 –142 –125 –185 –260 –2,246 –178 –161 –204 –153 –253 –362

–278 –48 –22 –78 –371 –382 –123 –46 –63 –67 –62 –304

–124 –45 –44 –25 –82 –171 –43 –42 –48 –40 –83 137

–4,023 –68 16 –88 –446 –29 –6 –31 –35 18 –90 –90

–18 –20 –26 –114 –173

–88 –309 –177 –108 –195

–35 –138 7 –59 –83

–23 –65 –38 –59 18

–83 –195 36 –229 –195 –412 5 –175 –295 –136 –19 –6 6 –51

–160 –40 –167 –378 –140 –663 –100 –212 –420 –134 –200 –189 –1,551 –231

–193 –50 –153 –152 –52 –396 –71 –119 –127 –95 –77 –49 –334 –92

–87

–215

–100

End of period 2007

2008

2009

84

470

–430

–288 –118 4 –83 –182 259 –80 –28 –93 –139 –113 –130

194 30 67 34 85 –306 40 57 38 60 58 340

1,294 209 192 303 1,324 4,117 655 262 355 331 442 1,341

–1,044 –240 –248 –300 –1,200 –3,962 –528 –242 –373 –344 –447 –823

11 25 4 –155 ...

–17 –116 –16 –147 –95

69 122 53 52 108

108 487 251 339 544

–164 –532 –234 –340 –433

–59 –103 –34 –76 –120 47 –24 –96 –49 –48 21 –93 97 –17

13 –43 42 ... –88 –35 –7 –95 ... –15 –10 –41 –71 –143

–24 –6 –16 ... 149 –44 –15 –19 –52 –3 2 –16 –12 –92

87 126 26 43 98 381 20 58 118 80 57 32 131 95

521 207 420 713 301 1,577 247 648 920 398 324 295 2,468 471

–495 –388 –318 –835 –507 –1,424 –190 –602 –891 –413 –275 –337 –1,782 –391

–73

–60

–20

68

472

–475

Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co. Note: The country and regional classifications used in this table follow the conventions of JPMorgan, and do not necessarily conform to IMF country classifications or regional groupings. 1Data prior to 2006 refer to Serbia and Montenegro.


37


Table 14. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans (In millions of U.S. dollars)

2009 Total Sub-Saharan Africa Algeria Angola Burkina Faso Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Côte d’Ivoire Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Kenya Lesotho Mali Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Senegal Seychelles South Africa Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Moldova Montenegro Poland Romania Serbia1 Turkey Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Mongolia Russia Tajikistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

38

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

337,728.6 11,364.2 489.3 3,122.7 11.0 30.0 — — — — — 706.5 64.0 — — 99.3 1.9 — 50.0 874.0 — — 6,265.9 136.0 — 579.9 — — 4.8

414,781.4 15,800.1 2.0 91.9 — — — — — — 34.4 860.0 330.1 — — 180.0 158.7 38.8 100.0 640.0 31.6 200.0 12,700.7 — — 24.7 12.6 505.0 75.1

572,611.1 28,306.1 411.0 74.6 14.5 — 13.0 305.5 — — 1,000.0 1,464.3 10.0 19.7 180.9 — 1,721.0 — — 4,884.3 — 30.0 20,054.4 — — 403.4 — 255.0 —

343,794.4 6,843.8 1,738.0 — — — — — 45.0 100.2 600.0 1,000.0 277.0 — 110.4 29.0 472.6 834.0 97.6 223.5 — — 2,935.9 446.1 125.0 402.0 — 20.0 —

410,007.6 12,847.1 — 1,759.4 — — — — 150.7 46.8 — 1,331.5 62.8 — — — — 55.0 — 414.7 200.0 — 8,671.3 — — 1.4 50.0 25.0 80.0

100,065.4 2,611.5 — 136.3 — — — — 150.7 — — — — — — — — 55.0 — 74.7 — — 2,169.8 — — 1.4 — 25.0 —

53,582.4 — 1,103.7 1,263.7 692.8 9,341.7 516.1 1,220.0 176.5 13.1 — 16,391.7 2,611.0 1,252.6 18,999.6

50,954.9 — 1,727.1 1,896.7 470.9 7,328.7 1,457.4 1,292.0 — — 0.8 8,332.1 747.2 60.2 27,641.6

53,333.1 — 1,360.0 2,786.5 299.2 5,330.8 1,614.7 1,645.3 14.4 — 21.4 7,342.9 1,129.1 568.6 31,220.1

42,311.5 78.1 1,415.0 1,472.3 328.9 9,103.9 1,892.0 263.3 — 171.3 6.4 8,168.4 1,890.0 243.3 17,278.6

36,514.6 — 540.5 3,494.4 53.0 5,615.2 278.2 2,415.2 452.8 28.4 6.3 13,379.5 185.2 886.8 9,179.0

49,018.5 1.3 400.2 32.0 11.1 8,199.1 2.0 30.0 37,003.6 1.2 3,334.4 3.6

81,983.3 30.0 183.8 338.6 220.8 16,655.8 — 6.0 59,165.3 — 5,378.1 4.9

112,324.8 19.1 315.7 302.8 341.6 18,049.7 — 85.0 84,535.9 2.0 8,672.9 —

78,347.9 11.0 116.6 327.0 649.6 11,077.1 7.4 6.8 61,229.6 16.7 4,889.8 16.4

52,227.2 2.4 459.8 53.5 55.5 1,053.7 46.2 1.0 46,930.7 3.2 3,616.3 5


Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

85,474.2 3,062.2 — 123.1 — — — — — 46.8 — 55.0 62.8 — — — — — — — — — 2,774.5 — — — — — —

103,219.2 5,541.1 — 1,500.0 — — — — — — — 1,276.5 — — — — — — — 340.0 — — 2,394.6 — — — 30.0 — —

121,168.7 1,552.3 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 200.0 — 1,332.3 — — — 20.0 — —

3,340.3 — 45.7 — — 241.8 — 187.9 65.0 — — 1,295.6 132.9 — 1,371.5

8,366.5 — 46.6 1,361.1 53.0 70.0 132.0 727.3 387.9 — — 1,823.6 — — 3,765.0

11,053.9 — 8.1 35.5 — 2,878.2 — — — 28.4 — 4,669.1 28.4 210.9 3,195.5

13,753.9 — 440.2 2,097.8 — 2,425.3 146.2 1,500.0 — — 6.3 5,591.2 23.9 675.9 847.0

30,411.7 — 260.0 — — 70.0 — — 29,851.0 3.2 222.5 5

8,966.4 2.4 10.0 10.0 35.5 23.1 — 1.0 8,864.4 — 20.0 —

7,411.2 — 13.0 — 20.0 779.4 35.0 — 5,664.1 — 899.7 —

5,438.0 — 176.8 43.5 — 181.2 11.2 — 2,551.2 — 2,474.1 —


Table 14 (concluded) 2009 Developing Asia Bangladesh Brunei Darussalam Cambodia China Fiji India Indonesia Lao P.D.R. Malaysia Marshall Islands Nepal Pakistan Papua New Guinea Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Middle East and North Africa Bahrain Egypt Iran, I.R. of Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syrian Arab Republic United Arab Emirates Yemen Arab Republic Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

87,449.8 16.7 — — 38,804.6 — 21,660.0 5,193.3 1,000.0 6,154.6 24.0 — 739.2 — 6,194.8 383.0 6,310.9 968.8

111,889.1 106.5 — 96.3 50,039.5 150.0 29,534.4 8,432.4 — 7,686.9 170.0 — 3,260.0 — 7,041.8 129.8 4,784.1 457.4

168,004.5 57.5 — 220.0 75,143.5 — 60,599.3 8,440.7 — 7,068.2 1,069.3 — 2,158.3 1,024.3 6,319.0 755.0 2,494.2 2,655.2

96,215.7 65.4 505.0 — 29,041.4 — 37,570.0 13,748.8 592.0 5,260.2 204.0 15.0 885.2 — 3,066.1 538.7 3,070.4 1,653.5

156,104.8 126.9 — — 66,734.3 — 56,881.4 13,004.0 213.7 7,107.7 400.0 — 611.8 78.5 7,572.5 560.0 1,461.0 1,353.0

35,830.1 15.0 — — 23,055.5 — 5,096.4 3,437.2 213.7 1,175.2 — — 298.9 — 1,570.8 — 203.1 764.3

39,008.2 — — — 12,041.7 — 21,035.7 2,321.2 — 1,200.3 — — 312.9 78.5 1,280.0 60.0 484.8 193.0

38,478.4 41.4 — — 14,801.5 — 18,115.4 1,794.4 — 1,018.4 — — — — 2,194.0 — 513.2 —

42,788.1 70.5 — — 16,835.5 — 12,634.0 5,451.1 — 3,713.7 400.0 — — — 2,527.7 500.0 259.8 395.7

50,850.3 2,913.8 3,426.1 1,928.8 107.8 — 4,445.0 2,558.0 — 3,320.7 10,768.5 5,791.0 — 14,519.5 — 85,463.4 20,663.0 54.0 27,486.0 6,808.6 3,063.3 91.7 1.9 284.4 759.0 454.5 365.0 — 4.6 1,466.6 14,104.2 — — — 2,583.9 100.0 1,061.2 6,111.3

81,592.0 3,825.7 4,379.6 142.5 2,877.0 60.0 5,346.6 6,040.0 — 3,430.2 10,527.9 9,115.5 — 35,661.6 — 72,560.0 3,343.6 — 31,219.4 6,009.9 5,036.1 1.7 — 779.8 19.1 1,326.6 — 134.0 — 1,076.1 16,341.9 — — — 1,489.9 2,708.0 2,700.0 376.1

77,839.6 6,170.1 5,471.7 — — 180.0 1,919.9 2,420.0 38.0 3,580.7 14,700.5 7,110.6 — 33,712.6 — 132,803.0 10,472.2 — 73,737.4 3,743.2 7,879.4 31.1 — 657.9 104.0 — 15.0 — — 1,275.0 17,678.9 — — — 5,724.4 955.4 1,148.3 9,381.0

60,108.8 1,245.0 6,128.5 — — — 3,146.8 3,203.2 — 950.6 11,318.1 7,232.5 80.0 21,769.2 2,422.2 59,966.8 1,651.4 100.0 30,843.1 5,680.4 1,991.7 85.0 — 479.6 — — — — 113.6 450.0 10,647.9 — 842.7 98.8 2,330.0 — 2.6 4,650.0

52,949.9 1,824.5 1,450.7 — — — 894.9 2,905.6 — 461.8 15,616.1 2,282.9 — 27,464.4 47.6 99,363.8 648.0 — 39,713.5 4,360.1 6,452.6 — — — — 800.0 — — — 1,085.0 28,157.9 — 2,120.4 — 3,676.4 850.0 500.0 11,000.0

7,220.6 — 566.8 — — — — 2,365.6 — — 833.8 — — 3,405.3 47.6 20,651.1 — — 7,059.8 600.0 1,000.0 — — — — — — — — 335.0 9,522.7 — 438.4 — 1,695.3 — — —

12,777.9 1,754.5 — — — — 115.0 — — 51.9 3,952.2 — — 6,904.2 — 13,293.1 45.0 — 8,273.2 872.0 1,083.9 — — — — — — — — 250.0 2,545.3 — 96.0 — 127.7 — — —

12,953.1 70.0 175.1 — — — — 40.0 — — 2,230.0 2,282.9 — 8,155.1 — 27,781.5 603.0 — 8,984.3 500.0 2,000.0 — — — — — — — — — 9,867.3 — 375.0 — 1,101.9 850.0 500.0 3,000.0

19,998.3 — 708.8 — — — 779.9 500.0 — 409.9 8,600.0 — — 8,999.8 — 37,638.1 — — 15,396.2 2,388.1 2,368.7 — — — — 800.0 — — — 500.0 6,222.6 — 1,211.0 — 751.5 — — 8,000.0

Source: Data provided by the Bond, Equity and Loan database of the International Monetary Fund sourced from Dealogic. Note: Deal inclusion conforms to the vendor’s criteria for external publicly syndicated issuance, generally excluding bilateral deals. 1Data prior to 2006 refer to Serbia and Montenegro.


39


Table 15. Emerging Market External Financing: Bond Issuance (In millions of U.S. dollars)

2009 Total Sub-Saharan Africa Gabon Ghana Morocco Nigeria Senegal Seychelles South Africa Tunisia Central and Eastern Europe Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Poland Romania Serbia 1 Turkey Commonwealth of Independent States Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Mongolia Russia Ukraine Developing Asia China Fiji India Indonesia Malaysia Marshall Islands Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

40

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

148,059.2 2,681.4 — — — — — — 2,681.4 488.6

130,816.9 4,898.9 — — — — — 200.0 4,698.9 —

144,572.2 12,318.6 1,000.0 950.0 671.3 525.0 — 30.0 9,813.6 253.4

77,663.9 1,532.8 — — — — — — 1,532.8 —

32,181.6 383.4 — 426.6 7,351.4 123.1 778.6 176.5 11,851.5 1,197.0 1,018.5 8,875.0

22,917.8 220.8 384.9 — 6,900.9 266.1 1,241.6 — 4,693.5 — — 9,209.9

17,765.0 — 746.4 38.0 4,088.2 — 1,484.2 — 4,111.0 — 165.2 7,132.2

20,321.6 — — — 2,850.0 — 15,365.7 2,105.9 16,869.8 3,858.2 — 2,118.3 2,817.3 1,184.1 — — 3,900.0 — 2,241.8 750.0

30,981.3 5.0 2.5 — 7,055.8 — 20,804.6 3,113.5 14,708.7 1,110.0 150.0 2,644.2 2,000.0 2,076.2 — 1,050.0 4,623.2 — 1,055.0 —

43,428.2 100.0 19.4 200.0 8,808.6 75.0 30,190.3 4,035.0 15,377.6 2,144.2 — 7,549.4 1,750.0 918.6 — 750.0 1,000.0 500.0 765.4 —


Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

143,413.9 3,435.6 — — — — 200.0 — 3,235.6 —

19,628.5 100.0 — — — — — — 100.0 —

26,839.4 1,818.9 — — — — — — 1,818.9 —

40,748.9 516.7 — — — — — — 516.7 —

56,197.0 1,000.0 — — — — 200.0 — 800.0 —

15,091.4 — — — 5,281.3 607.6 104.9 — 3,785.1 1,162.5 — 4,150.0

22,902.7 — 3,148.0 — 3,045.3 — 2,388.1 243.9 10,153.6 23.9 — 3,900.0

2,479.7 — — — — — 187.9 — 1,291.7 — — 1,000.0

4,835.2 — 1,050.2 — 70.0 — 700.1 243.9 1,271.0 — — 1,500.0

6,855.0 — — — 1,397.4 — — — 4,207.5 — — 1,250.0

8,732.9 — 2,097.8 — 1,577.9 — 1,500.0 — 3,383.3 23.9 — 150.0

27,150.7 49.6 3.0 500.0 3,575.0 — 22,063.1 960.0 8,976.4 2,055.3 — 1,407.5 4,200.0 439.7 — — 350.0 — 523.8 —

14,705.6 — — — 671.2 — 10,809.3 3,225.1 17,439.9 3,267.5 — 2,150.0 5,453.6 81.0 400.0 137.7 5,350.0 500.0 — 100.0

1,850.3 — — — — — 1,850.3 — 4,600.0 — — — 3,000.0 — — — 1,500.0 — — 100.0

4,288.3 — — — — — 4,288.3 — 2,034.2 146.5 — — 750.0 — — 137.7 1,000.0 — — —

4,700.0 — — — 500.0 — 3,359.4 840.6 3,531.9 1,692.2 — 150.0 358.6 81.0 — — 1,250.0 — — —

3,867.0 — — — 171.2 — 1,311.4 2,384.4 7,273.8 1,428.8 — 2,000.0 1,345.0 — 400.0 — 1,600.0 500.0 — —


Table 15 (concluded) 2009 Middle East and North Africa Bahrain Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Western Hemisphere Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Jamaica Mexico Panama Peru Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

15,037.7 1,296.7 1,250.0 — — 500.0 1,780.0 — 2,250.0 1,800.0 5,672.4 60,967.1 18,984.4 17,769.0 900.0 2,435.5 196.6 650.0 375.0 200.0 1,050.0 9,165.1 — 2,155.0 100.0 1,061.2 5,925.3

26,595.3 1,120.0 — 2,700.0 — 1,137.0 5,741.6 25.0 3,040.0 2,913.8 9,917.9 30,714.8 1,745.5 12,303.9 1,100.0 3,177.6 550.0 — 625.0 — 880.0 6,207.2 — 445.0 980.7 2,700.0 —

17,143.3 1,767.7 1,803.5 — — 575.0 2,300.0 — — — 9,772.4 38,539.5 3,400.9 9,916.9 250.0 3,133.7 430.0 — — — 625.0 6,341.4 — 4,449.0 900.0 342.6 8,750.0

7,350.7 350.0 — — — 305.7 3,138.2 — — — 3,556.8 17,562.0 65.0 6,734.7 99.8 1,039.7 — — — — 350.0 4,472.9 — 150.0 — — 4,650.0

31,387.0 750.0 300.0 — — 500.0 2,865.6 — 13,830.0 140.0 13,001.4 53,543.2 545.0 10,166.7 2,951.4 5,903.0 — — 800.0 — 1,085.0 15,540.9 1,323.0 2,878.2 850.0 500.0 11,000.0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2,365.6 — — — — — 2,365.6 — — — — 8,233.0 — 1,025.0 600.0 1,000.0 — — — — 335.0 3,700.0 323.0 1,250.0 — — —

8,703.7 750.0 — — — — — — 3,000.0 — 4,953.7 5,159.1 45.0 2,910.0 300.0 1,000.0 — — — — 250.0 532.9 — 121.2 — — —

6,462.4 — — — — — — — 2,230.0 140.0 4,092.5 18,683.0 500.0 4,026.7 200.0 2,000.0 — — — — — 6,606.3 — 1,000.0 850.0 500.0 3,000.0

13,855.3 — 300.0 — — 500.0 500.0 — 8,600.0 — 3,955.3 21,468.1 — 2,205.0 1,851.4 1,903.0 — — 800.0 — 500.0 4,701.7 1,000.0 507.0 — — 8,000.0



41


Table 16. Emerging Market External Financing: Equity Issuance (In millions of U.S. dollars)

2009 Total Sub-Saharan Africa Algeria Central African Republic Ghana Kenya Morocco Namibia Nigeria South Africa Zimbabwe Central and Eastern Europe Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Hungary Lithuania Poland Romania Turkey Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Georgia Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Developing Asia Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Papua New Guinea Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Middle East and North Africa Bahrain Egypt Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Western Hemisphere Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Panama Peru

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

53,352.9 1,189.0 — — — — — — — 1,184.2 4.8

99,457.6 3,875.3 2.0 — — — 133.3 — — 3,800.2 75.1

183,536.3 8,187.2 — 305.5 9.8 — 1,049.7 — 692.8 7,179.2 —

45,513.9 1,004.3 — — — 252.0 472.6 87.6 — 664.7 —

91,731.7 1,377.6 — — — — — — — 1,377.6 —

7,584.5 122.4 — — — — — — — 122.4 —

21,367.2 193.7 — — — — — — — 193.7 —

26,889.2 1,061.6 — — — — — — — 1,061.6 —

35,890.8 ... — — — — — — — — —

1,709.5 93.5 — 266.2 48.8 51.2 1,249.8 — —

3,252.4 85.7 220.0 21.5 — — 1,588.5 172.5 1,164.3

4,977.2 — 1,377.6 216.1 191.8 — 498.2 116.9 2,576.6

1,166.6 — — — — 15.0 1,151.6 — —

3,992.9 — — — 1,201.7 — 2,791.2 — —

— — — — — — — — —

221.6 — — — — — 221.6 — —

1,563.4 — — — 1,201.7 — 361.7 — —

2,207.9 — — — — — 2,207.9 — —

8,163.4 — — 1,548.2 6,458.2 157.1 35,145.6 16.7 — 23,188.4 8,571.0 1,334.2 672.3 — — 740.2 55.5 567.2 —

17,654.1 — 159.8 4,303.6 13,165.4 25.3 57,124.5 23.0 96.3 40,517.1 11,009.0 675.9 559.4 922.2 — 1,515.7 — 1,805.8 —

35,960.1 — — 5,030.4 29,596.8 1,332.9 80,472.4 39.9 220.0 48,272.1 21,674.6 3,009.0 1,790.9 793.4 1,024.3 2,226.8 — 819.9 601.4

4,087.2 — 100.0 219.9 2,850.3 917.0 22,578.9 — — 12,754.1 6,017.1 2,327.2 660.0 109.3 — 201.0 3.7 416.6 90.0

1,215.8 2.4 — 195.1 955.6 62.7 62,704.9 70.5 — 39,915.9 16,638.8 1,639.6 4,029.1 — — 299.8 — 111.2 —

— — — — — — 6,485.3 — — 6,318.9 4.9 12.2 129.7 — — — — 19.7 —

181.9 2.4 — 15.1 164.4 — 14,827.8 — — 9,684.5 3,846.2 861.0 425.2 — — — — 11.0 —

695.8 — — 180.0 515.8 — 18,100.0 — — 8,733.5 8,433.5 95.8 456.8 — — 299.8 — 80.5 —

338.1 — — — 275.4 62.7 23,291.8 70.5 — 15,179.1 4,354.2 670.5 3,017.4 — — — — — —

1,860.9 87.2 686.8 — 778.0 148.4 — — 160.5 5,284.6 — 3,782.8 598.1 — 903.8 — —

2,499.3 420.5 483.7 — 248.4 — 234.8 — 976.6 15,052.0 987.1 11,177.1 742.9 54.2 1,513.8 — 576.9

6,414.3 266.4 592.1 — — — 171.4 41.8 4,293.0 47,525.1 1,845.3 39,242.8 317.7 3,365.7 2,111.1 — 642.6

3,957.9 — 483.6 1,642.0 — 34.6 900.0 — 425.0 12,719.0 — 10,435.4 — — 2,127.2 156.4 —

1,900.6 — 114.2 — — — 952.2 639.9 194.3 20,539.9 — 18,195.2 31.8 511.6 1,567.3 — 234.1

— — — — — — — — — 976.8 — 976.8 — — — — —

952.2 — — — — — 952.2 — — 4,990.0 — 4,906.1 — 83.9 — — —

796.9 — — — — — — 639.9 156.9 4,671.6 — 3,025.6 — — 1,556.4 — 89.5

151.5 — 114.2 — — — — — 37.3 9,901.5 — 9,286.7 31.8 427.7 10.9 — 144.5

Source: Data provided by the Bond, Equity and Loan database of the International Monetary Fund sourced from Dealogic. Note: Deal inclusion conforms to the vendor’s criteria for external publicly syndicated issuance, generally excluding bilateral deals.

42



Table 17. Emerging Market External Financing: Loan Syndication (In millions of U.S. dollars)

2009 Total Sub-Saharan Africa Algeria Angola Botswana Burkina Faso Cameroon Cape Verde Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Kenya Lesotho Mali Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Moldova Montenegro Poland Romania Serbia1 Turkey Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Mongolia Russia Tajikistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

136,316.5 7,493.8 489.3 3,122.7 — 11.0 30.0 — — — — — 706.5 64.0 — — 99.3 1.9 — 50.0 874.0 — 2,400.3 136.0 — 91.2 — — —

184,506.3 7,025.9 — 91.9 — — — — — — — 34.4 860.0 330.1 — — 180.0 25.4 38.8 100.0 640.0 31.6 4,201.6 — — 24.7 12.6 505.0 —

244,502.6 7,800.2 411.0 74.6 — 14.5 — 13.0 — — — — 504.5 10.0 19.7 180.9 — — — — 3,666.5 — 3,061.6 — — 150.0 — 255.0 —

220,616.6 4,306.7 1,738.0 — — — — — 45.0 — 100.2 600.0 1,000.0 25.0 — 110.4 29.0 — 834.0 10.0 223.5 — 738.5 446.1 125.0 402.0 — 20.0 —

174,862.0 8,034.0 — 1,759.4 — — — — 150.7 — 46.8 — 1,331.5 62.8 — — — — 55.0 — 414.7 — 4,058.1 — — 1.4 50.0 25.0 80.0

72,852.4 2,389.1 — 136.3 — — — — 150.7 — — — — — — — — — 55.0 — 74.7 — 1,947.5 — — 1.4 — 25.0 —

37,267.6 1,049.6 — 123.1 — — — — — — 46.8 — 55.0 62.8 — — — — — — — — 761.9 — — — — — —

35,581.1 3,962.9 — 1,500.0 — — — — — — — — 1,276.5 — — — — — — — 340.0 — 816.4 — — — 30.0 — —

29,080.9 552.3 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 532.3 — — — 20.0 — —

19,691.3 — 626.8 1,263.7 — 1,941.4 393.0 390.2 — 13.1 — 3,290.4 1,414.0 234.1 10,124.6

24,784.7 — 1,420.6 1,291.9 449.4 427.8 1,191.3 50.4 — — 0.8 2,050.2 574.7 60.2 17,267.4

30,590.9 — 1,360.0 662.6 45.1 1,050.9 1,614.7 161.2 14.4 — 21.4 2,733.7 1,012.2 403.4 21,511.3

26,053.4 78.1 1,415.0 1,472.3 328.9 3,822.6 1,284.3 143.5 — 171.3 6.4 3,231.7 727.5 243.3 13,128.6

9,619.1 — 540.5 346.4 53.0 1,368.3 278.2 27.2 209.0 28.4 6.3 434.7 161.3 886.8 5,279.0

860.7 — 45.7 — — 241.8 — — 65.0 — — 3.9 132.9 — 371.5

3,309.7 — 46.6 310.9 53.0 — 132.0 27.2 144.0 — — 331.0 — — 2,265.0

2,635.6 — 8.1 35.5 — 279.1 — — — 28.4 — 99.8 28.4 210.9 1,945.5

2,813.1 — 440.2 — — 847.5 146.2 — — — 6.3 — — 675.9 697.0

20,533.4 1.3 400.2 32.0 11.1 3,800.9 2.0 30.0 15,179.7 1.2 1,071.4 3.6

33,347.8 30.0 178.8 336.1 61.0 5,296.4 — 6.0 25,195.4 — 2,239.3 4.9

32,936.5 19.1 215.7 283.5 141.6 4,210.7 — 10.0 24,748.9 2.0 3,305.0 —

47,110.1 11.0 67.0 324.0 49.6 7,282.2 7.4 6.8 36,316.2 16.7 3,012.8 16.4

36,305.9 — 459.8 53.5 55.5 187.4 46.2 1.0 35,165.7 3.2 328.6 5.0

28,561.4 — 260.0 — — 70.0 — — 28,000.7 3.2 222.5 5.0

4,496.2 — 10.0 10.0 35.5 8.0 — 1.0 4,411.7 — 20.0 —

2,015.3 — 13.0 — 20.0 99.4 35.0 — 1,788.8 — 59.1 —

1,232.9 — 176.8 43.5 — 10.0 11.2 — 964.4 — 27.0 —


43


Table 17 (concluded) 2009 Developing Asia Bangladesh Brunei Darussalam China India Indonesia Lao P.D.R. Malaysia Marshall Islands Nepal Pakistan Papua New Guinea Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Middle East and North Africa Bahrain Egypt Iran, I.R. of Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syrian Arab Republic United Arab Emirates Yemen Arab Republic Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

35,434.5 — — 11,757.9 10,970.7 1,041.8 1,000.0 4,298.2 24.0 — 739.2 — 1,554.6 327.5 3,501.8 218.8

40,055.9 83.6 — 8,412.3 15,881.2 5,756.5 — 5,051.2 170.0 — 1,287.8 — 902.9 129.8 1,923.3 457.4

72,154.5 17.6 — 24,727.2 31,375.3 3,681.7 — 4,358.8 1,069.3 — 614.9 — 3,092.2 255.0 908.8 2,053.8

64,660.4 65.4 505.0 14,232.0 30,145.4 7,221.6 592.0 4,160.5 204.0 15.0 775.9 — 2,515.0 535.0 2,130.0 1,563.5

75,960.1 56.4 — 23,550.8 38,092.6 5,910.8 213.7 2,997.6 — — 474.1 78.5 1,922.7 60.0 1,349.8 1,253.0

24,744.8 15.0 — 16,736.7 5,091.5 425.0 213.7 1,045.5 — — 298.9 — 70.8 — 183.4 664.3

22,146.2 — — 2,210.8 17,189.5 710.2 — 775.2 — — 175.2 78.5 280.0 60.0 473.9 193.0

16,846.6 41.4 — 4,375.8 9,531.9 1,340.0 — 480.6 — — — — 644.1 — 432.7 —

12,222.5 — — 227.6 6,279.8 3,435.6 — 696.3 — — — — 927.7 — 259.8 395.7

33,951.7 1,530.0 1,489.3 1,928.8 107.8 — 3,945.0 — — 3,172.2 8,518.5 3,991.0 — 8,686.6 — 19,211.7 1,678.6 54.0 5,934.3 5,310.6 627.8 91.7 1.9 87.8 109.0 79.5 165.0 — 4.6 416.6 4,035.4 — — — 429.0 — — 186.0

52,497.4 2,285.2 3,895.9 142.5 177.0 60.0 4,209.6 50.0 — 3,405.2 7,253.1 6,201.7 — 24,767.1 — 26,795.2 611.0 — 7,738.3 4,166.9 1,804.4 1.7 — 229.8 19.1 701.6 — 134.0 — 196.1 8,620.9 — — — 468.0 1,727.3 — 376.1

54,282.1 4,136.0 3,076.1 — — 180.0 1,344.9 120.0 38.0 3,580.7 14,529.2 7,068.8 — 19,647.3 — 46,738.4 5,226.0 — 24,577.6 3,175.5 1,380.0 31.1 — 227.9 104.0 — 15.0 — — 650.0 9,226.4 — — — 632.9 55.4 805.7 631.0

48,800.3 895.0 5,644.8 — — — 1,199.1 65.0 — 916.0 10,418.1 7,232.5 80.0 17,787.5 2,422.2 29,685.7 1,586.4 100.0 13,673.0 5,580.7 952.0 85.0 — 479.6 — — — — 113.6 100.0 4,047.9 — 686.3 98.8 2,180.0 — 2.6 —

19,662.3 1,074.5 1,036.5 — — — 394.9 40.0 — 461.8 833.8 1,503.0 — 14,268.8 47.6 25,280.7 103.0 — 11,351.5 1,377.0 38.0 — — — — — — — — — 11,049.7 — 797.4 — 564.1 — — —

4,855.0 — 566.8 — — — — — — — 833.8 — — 3,405.3 47.6 11,441.3 — — 5,058.0 — — — — — — — — — — — 5,822.7 — 115.4 — 445.3 — — —

3,122.0 1,004.5 — — — — 115.0 — — 51.9 — — — 1,950.6 — 3,144.0 — — 457.1 572.0 — — — — — — — — — — 2,012.4 — 96.0 — 6.5 — — —

5,693.8 70.0 175.1 — — — — 40.0 — — — 1,503.0 — 3,905.7 — 4,426.9 103.0 — 1,931.9 300.0 — — — — — — — — — — 1,704.6 — 375.0 — 12.3 — — —

5,991.5 — 294.6 — — — 279.9 — — 409.9 — — — 5,007.2 — 6,268.6 — — 3,904.6 505.0 38.0 — — — — — — — — — 1,510.0 — 211.0 — 100.0 — — —


44



Table 18. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios 2009 Emerging markets Asia Europe/Middle East/Africa Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile China Colombia Egypt Hungary India Indonesia Jordan Malaysia Mexico Morocco Pakistan Philippines Poland Russia South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand Turkey

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2.5 2.6 2.1 3.0 1.7 3.9 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.4 2.2 1.3 3.3 1.1 2.9 1.6 3.8 5.0 2.2 2.7 1.6 2.5 1.7 3.7 2.0

2.2 2.1 2.0 2.4 0.8 3.1 1.9 1.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 1.0 2.3 3.4 2.6 1.2 3.5 5.8 2.3 4.2 1.0 2.4 1.4 3.9 2.9

1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 2.3 0.7 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 2.7 4.1 2.2 3.6 1.2 2.7 1.9 2.9 2.3

4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 2.7 4.7 2.6 3.1 2.4 6.3 4.6 1.8 5.4 3.4 4.1 2.8 3.2 12.5 4.4 5.9 3.5 4.5 9.8 6.5 5.8

2.1 1.7 2.2 2.7 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.9 2.8 4.8 1.3 0.9 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.4 4.9 6.4 2.2 3.0 1.4 2.7 1.6 2.9 2.1

3.9 3.7 4.2 3.9 2.9 4.4 2.4 3.2 2.4 8.7 5.3 1.7 5.2 3.7 4.0 3.2 3.3 9.1 4.1 4.1 3.2 4.5 7.0 5.5 4.9

2.9 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.1 4.0 2.4 2.4 3.2 6.3 1.8 1.1 3.7 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.3 9.1 3.3 4.5 2.0 4.2 2.0 3.9 2.9

2.3 1.8 2.4 3.3 1.2 3.7 2.2 2.0 2.8 4.8 1.4 0.9 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.5 3.7 6.6 2.3 3.3 1.5 2.9 1.8 2.9 2.2

2.1 1.7 2.2 2.7 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.9 2.8 4.8 1.3 0.9 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.4 4.9 6.4 2.2 3.0 1.4 2.7 1.6 2.9 2.1

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Note: The country and regional classifications used in this table follow the conventions of MSCI, and do not necessarily conform to IMF country classifications or regional groupings.


45


Table 19. Equity Valuation Measures: Price-to-Book Ratios 2009 Emerging markets Asia Europe/Middle East/Africa Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile China Colombia Egypt Hungary India Indonesia Jordan Malaysia Mexico Morocco Pakistan Philippines Poland Russia South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand Turkey

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2.4 2.1 2.9 2.6 3.1 2.4 1.9 2.1 3.4 8.0 3.0 4.4 3.1 4.7 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.6 2.0 2.6 2.4 3.2 2.0 2.4 2.2

2.6 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 4.7 3.0 5.2 4.4 2.2 2.2 3.6 4.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.6 1.9 2.0

2.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.4 4.5 1.8 5.5 2.6 6.4 5.8 2.4 2.5 3.3 6.1 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 3.1 1.7 2.4 2.3

1.4 1.4 1.2 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.7 0.9 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.5 2.4 5.2 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 1.1 1.1

2.2 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.2 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.4 3.8 3.9 2.4 2.1 2.6 4.0 1.9 2.6 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9

1.4 1.5 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.8 2.3 2.6 1.6 1.5 2.0 4.9 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.7 1.7 0.8 1.1 1.0

1.8 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.0 3.2 3.2 1.8 1.8 2.4 5.1 1.4 2.2 1.3 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5

2.0 2.1 1.7 2.3 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.4 3.7 4.2 1.9 2.0 2.7 4.3 1.9 2.4 1.5 1.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8

2.2 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.2 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.2 1.4 3.8 3.9 2.4 2.1 2.6 4.0 1.9 2.6 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9


46



Table 20. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios 2009 Emerging markets Asia Europe/Middle East/Africa Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile China Colombia Egypt Hungary India Indonesia Jordan Malaysia Mexico Morocco Pakistan Philippines Poland Russia South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand Turkey

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

15.0 14.2 17.3 14.5 19.5 12.4 21.7 12.2 29.7 31.5 12.8 20.2 12.1 41.5 14.5 17.1 19.5 12.9 15.7 15.7 15.8 17.0 15.5 10.2 16.5

15.7 15.8 15.7 14.7 16.7 12.8 23.6 21.0 20.1 19.1 11.3 22.9 19.5 15.3 18.4 17.3 22.8 10.0 17.7 13.2 15.8 16.5 21.5 9.1 12.4

17.1 19.0 14.6 16.0 13.1 15.5 22.1 27.0 27.0 21.5 12.8 32.8 21.5 21.3 16.9 16.4 27.2 13.4 16.5 15.2 14.1 14.9 14.7 14.8 10.9

8.5 9.4 6.7 9.0 3.7 7.9 13.3 10.3 13.4 7.1 3.7 10.5 8.7 14.4 10.2 12.3 26.0 3.8 11.7 7.3 3.4 10.7 7.1 7.1 5.3

20.6 24.3 16.2 18.3 8.0 17.0 18.7 21.1 25.1 13.9 14.2 21.8 16.4 15.9 20.3 22.7 14.3 10.1 19.1 19.3 15.6 16.6 77.7 19.3 12.6

9.1 10.2 6.4 10.6 4.6 9.5 12.9 10.4 13.5 6.3 3.7 12.0 9.0 15.8 12.0 14.0 22.2 6.1 12.5 7.1 3.6 9.8 9.0 6.5 5.0

14.3 19.0 9.0 13.3 6.3 11.8 15.5 16.2 15.5 10.0 6.1 18.2 13.1 13.1 17.3 20.1 22.9 8.5 17.4 12.8 6.1 10.6 19.9 16.1 9.2

19.0 26.3 12.4 15.6 7.3 14.1 16.2 19.1 21.3 12.0 9.0 20.9 16.6 15.1 21.0 21.4 21.4 10.2 19.6 16.8 9.6 13.9 47.7 21.2 12.5

20.6 24.3 16.2 18.3 8.0 17.0 18.7 21.1 25.1 13.9 14.2 21.8 16.4 15.9 20.3 22.7 14.3 10.1 19.1 19.3 15.6 16.6 77.7 19.3 12.6



47


Table 21. Emerging Markets: Mutual Fund Flows (In millions of U.S. dollars)

2009 Bonds Equities Global Asia Europe/Middle East/Africa Latin America

2005 5,729.0 21,706.1 3,147.7 6,951.8 7,587.2 4,019.5

2006 6,233.1 22,440.8 4,208.6 16,790.2 –1,877.4 3,319.5

2007 2008 4,294.9 –14,717.6 40,827.1 –39,490.0 15,223.3 –9,114.1 16,404.6 –19,586.8 –953.3 –4,928.7 10,152.6 –5,860.4

2009 8,275.7 64,383.2 34,471.3 19,108.6 8,786.0 2,017.3

Q1 –3,037.2 2,037.3 3,599.4 –1,260.7 –1,309.4 1,007.9

Q2 876.7 26,731.5 10,138.8 11,998.2 705.3 3,889.2

Q3 3,884.7 11,274.4 5,461.9 3,238.4 1,346.3 1,227.7

Q4 6,551.5 24,340.0 15,271.2 5,132.6 1,275.0 2,661.2

Source: Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, Inc. Note: The country and regional classifications used in this table follow the conventions of Emerging Portfolio Fund Research and individual fund managers, and do not necessarily conform to IMF country classifications or regional groupings.

48


STATISTICAL APPENDIX financial soundness indicators

Table 22. Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets (In percent)

Advanced economies Australia Austria9 Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong SAR Iceland10 Ireland7 Israel Italy11 Japan25 Korea Luxembourg12 Malta Netherlands Norway Portugal13 Singapore Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden14 Switzerland15 United Kingdom United States26 Emerging and developing economies Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR5 Montenegro6 Poland30 Romania8 Serbia Turkey29 Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Belarus Georgia28 Kazakhstan Moldova Russia Ukraine Developing Asia Bangladesh China India16 Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan20 Philippines17 Thailand

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

10.5 12.4 13.0 13.3 12.5 13.4 19.1 11.5 12.4 12.8 15.4 12.8 12.6 10.8 11.6 11.6 12.1 17.5 21.3 12.3 12.2 10.4 16.2 18.7 11.8 11.0 10.1 12.6 12.7 13.2

10.4 11.8 11.5 12.9 11.9 13.2 17.2 11.3 12.2 13.2 14.8 12.8 12.0 10.7 10.6 12.2 13.0 15.5 20.4 12.6 11.9 11.3 15.8 14.8 10.5 11.0 10.1 12.4 12.8 12.9

10.4 13.2 11.9 12.5 11.5 13.8 15.1 10.9 12.5 12.2 14.9 15.1 10.9 10.8 10.7 13.1 12.8 15.3 22.0 11.9 11.2 10.9 15.4 13.0 11.0 11.2 10.0 13.4 12.9 13.0

10.2 12.7 11.2 12.1 11.6 12.3 15.4 10.2 12.9 11.2 13.4 12.1 10.7 11.0 10.4 12.3 12.3 14.3 21.0 13.2 11.7 10.4 13.5 12.8 11.2 10.6 9.8 12.1 12.6 12.8

11.4 12.9 16.2 12.2 12.3 ... 13.5 ... 13.6 9.4 14.8 ... 10.6 11.1 10.8 12.4 12.3 15.4 17.7 11.9 11.2 9.4 14.7 11.1 11.7 11.3 10.2 14.8 12.9 12.8

11.7 14.3 17.3 14.5 14.1 ... ... ... ... 11.7 16.6 ... 10.6 12.6 ... 14.3 14.2 17.5 ... 13.3 12.1 10.3 16.5 12.3 11.6 12.2 12.7 16.9 13.3 14.3

September September December September December December June December December September September December September June December September September March December June September June September October September December December June June December

21.6 18.7 16.6 16.0 11.5 12.4 11.7 12.4 23.0 31.3 15.4 20.6 27.9 28.2

18.6 17.8 15.3 15.2 10.7 11.6 10.1 10.3 21.3 27.8 14.5 21.1 26.0 23.7

18.1 17.7 14.5 14.4 10.8 11.0 10.2 10.8 18.3 21.3 13.2 18.1 24.7 21.9

17.1 17.1 13.8 16.9 10.8 10.4 11.1 10.9 17.0 17.1 12.0 13.8 27.9 18.9

17.2 16.3 14.9 15.4 13.3 11.1 11.8 12.9 16.2 15.0 10.8 13.8 21.9 18.0

16.7 16.4 17.3 16.2 15.7 13.1 14.6 14.2 16.5 12.9 13.1 13.7 21.2 20.4

September September September September December September December December September September September September June November

32.3 25.2 36.0 15.3 31.4 17.0 16.8

33.7 26.7 31.0 14.9 27.2 16.0 15.0

34.9 24.4 36.0 14.8 27.9 14.9 14.2

30.1 19.3 30.0 14.2 29.1 15.5 13.9

27.5 21.8 24.0 14.9 32.2 16.8 14.0

28.3 19.8 26.6 –9.1 32.7 20.9 15.6

December December November December November November September

6.9 –4.7 12.9 19.4 14.4 10.5 18.4 12.4

7.3 2.5 12.8 19.3 13.7 11.3 17.7 13.2

5.1 4.9 12.3 21.3 13.5 12.7 17.6 13.6

7.4 8.4 12.3 19.3 13.2 12.3 15.7 14.8

10.1 12.0 13.0 16.8 12.7 12.3 15.5 13.8

... 10.0 13.2 17.5 14.6 14.1 15.8 ...

June November March October November December September December


49


Table 22 (continued) (In percent)

Middle East and North Africa Egypt18,27 Jordan Kuwait Lebanon19 Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia Tunisia21 United Arab Emirates22 Sub-Saharan Africa Gabon23 Ghana Kenya Lesotho Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone South Africa24 Swaziland Uganda Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia1 Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica2 Dominican Republic1 Ecuador1 El Salvador Guatemala Mexico1 Panama Paraguay3 Peru Uruguay4 Venezuela

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

11.4 17.8 17.3 21.2 10.5 17.6 17.8 11.6 16.9

13.7 17.6 21.3 22.9 11.5 18.5 17.8 12.4 17.0

14.7 21.4 21.8 25.0 12.3 17.2 21.9 11.8 16.7

14.8 20.8 18.5 12.5 10.6 15.8 20.6 11.6 14.4

14.7 18.4 16.0 12.1 11.2 14.7 16.0 11.7 13.3

15.3 19.3 ... 12.4 11.7 15.5 ... ... 18.6

September June September November June June December December November

22.3 13.9 16.6 22.0 18.0 15.4 14.7 14.0 11.9 38.1 14.0 15.5 20.5

19.8 16.2 16.4 25.0 13.4 14.6 17.8 14.0 11.1 35.7 12.3 17.3 18.3

17.8 15.8 16.5 19.0 12.5 14.2 22.6 13.7 13.1 33.3 12.1 26.3 18.0

14.3 14.8 18.0 14.0 14.2 15.7 21.0 16.6 13.6 35.0 12.8 23.6 19.5

19.4 13.8 18.9 12.0 13.9 15.5 21.9 15.9 13.9 43.5 13.0 33.8 20.7

... 18.2 19.9 15.0 15.1 16.4 21.5 20.5 16.5 34.0 13.6 26.3 21.1

December December October September December September March September December December June September June

14.0 14.9 18.6 13.6 14.2 19.1 12.9 12.0 13.4 14.5 14.1 17.6 20.5 14.0 21.7 19.2

15.3 14.7 17.9 13.0 14.7 20.6 12.5 11.6 13.5 13.7 14.3 16.8 20.4 12.0 22.7 15.5

16.8 13.3 18.9 12.5 13.1 18.8 12.4 12.0 13.8 13.6 16.1 15.8 20.1 12.5 16.9 14.3

16.9 12.6 18.7 12.2 13.6 16.1 13.0 12.5 13.8 13.8 15.9 13.6 16.8 12.1 17.8 12.9

16.8 13.7 18.3 12.5 13.4 15.1 13.4 13.0 15.1 13.5 15.3 14.4 18.2 11.9 16.7 13.4

18.6 13.3 18.2 14.3 15.1 16.0 14.5 13.9 16.5 15.4 15.9 15.9 16.8 13.5 17.0 15.0

November November October December November December September November November December September September November December December October

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Due to differences in national accounting, taxation, and supervisory regimes, FSI data are not strictly comparable across countries. 1Commercial banks. 2Banking sector excludes offshore banks. 3Staff estimates for 2008 and 2009. 4In 2006, the Central Bank of Uruguay changed the methodology for calculating the regulatory capital ratio, changing the weights and adding a factor to the denominator to account for market risk. Therefore, regulatory capital ratios are smaller from 2006 onward, compared to previous years. The data exclude the state mortgage bank. 5From end-2007 the calculation of the ratio is based on a revised methodology. 6A revised banking law took effect affecting the series from March 2009 onward. 7Covers institutions whose ultimate parent is regulated by Irish authorities. 8The National Bank of Romania amended the capital adequacy requirements effective January 1, 2007, to be consistent with EU minimum requirements and Basel II. The former 12 percent capital adequacy ratio and 8 percent Tier I ratio were substituted by a new 8 percent solvency ratio. 9Starting in 2004 data reported on a consolidated basis. 10Covers the three largest commercial banks and large savings banks (six through 2005, five in 2006, and four in 2007). 11Consolidated reports for banking groups and individual reports for banks not belonging to groups. 12Data before 2004 not directly comparable with data after 2005; end-year data for 2007 and 2008; annual average for previous years. 2009 data not fully comparable with the data before due to differences in consolidation. 13For 2005–06 the figures are for the sample of institutions that are already complying with IFRS, accounting as of December 2004 for about 87 percent of the usual aggregate considered. From 2007 onward, the sample of banking institutions under analysis was expanded to include the institutions that adopted IFRS in 2006. 14Data for the four large banking groups.

50



Table 22 (concluded) 15The 2007 and 2008 ratios were calculated from numbers that originate from the Basel I as well as from the Basel II approach. Therefore, interpretation must be done carefully since they can vary within +/–10 percent. 16Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the indicated calendar year. 17On a consolidated basis. 18Based on data for fiscal year ending June 30 for public sector banks and December 31 for other banks. 19From 2007 onward, based on revised risk weights (Basel II). 20Data for 2007 and 2008 have been restated on the basis of annual audits. 21Prior to 2006, the capital to risk-weighted assets includes only private and public banks; from 2006 forward, it includes former development banks. Data for 2008 are preliminary. 22Data for national banks only. 23Specific loan loss provisions are excluded from the definition of capital. General loan loss provisions are included in Tier 2 capital up to an amount equal to 1.25 percent of risk-weighted assets. Regulatory capital is the sum of Tier 1 capital and the minimum of Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital. Risk-weighted assets are estimated using the following risk weights: 0 percent: cash reserves in domestic and foreign currency and claims on the central bank and the government; 20 percent: claims on correspondent banks in foreign currency; 100 percent: all other assets. 24Total (banking and trading book). 25Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the next calendar year; for major banks. 26All FDIC-insured institutions. 27Preliminary data for September 2009, not yet reflecting final audited accounts. 28Not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but included here for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure. 29Includes participation banks. 30Domestic banks.


51


Table 23. Bank Capital to Assets (In percent)

Advanced economies Australia5 Austria9 Belgium Canada Czech Republic10 Denmark Finland France Germany Greece9,11 Hong Kong SAR Iceland12 Ireland7,30 Israel Italy Japan27 Korea21 Luxembourg13 Malta Netherlands Norway14 Portugal15 Singapore Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain16 Sweden17 Switzerland18 United Kingdom14 United States28 Emerging and developing economies Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina4 Bulgaria5 Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Montenegro6 Poland33 Romania8 Serbia Turkey32 Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Belarus Georgia31 Kazakhstan Moldova5 Russia Ukraine Developing Asia Bangladesh China19 India20 Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan23 Philippines Thailand 52


2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

5.1 4.9 3.1 5.6 5.2 5.7 9.6 5.1 4.0 5.3 13.6 7.1 5.1 5.5 6.4 4.2 8.0 5.5 13.7 4.8 7.6 6.1 9.6 7.7 8.1 6.7 4.8 5.3 7.0 10.3

5.2 4.8 2.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 9.9 4.4 4.1 5.9 13.3 7.4 4.7 5.6 6.9 4.9 9.3 4.1 12.9 3.1 7.4 5.8 9.6 7.4 8.5 6.8 4.8 5.1 6.1 10.3

5.4 5.2 3.3 5.2 6.0 6.2 9.8 4.5 4.3 6.7 13.0 7.8 4.5 5.9 4.9 5.3 9.2 4.1 14.2 3.0 7.0 6.4 9.6 7.0 8.4 7.2 4.9 4.9 6.1 10.5

4.9 6.5 4.1 5.0 5.7 5.7 8.3 4.1 4.3 6.6 10.4 6.9 4.6 6.1 6.4 4.5 9.0 4.1 13.7 3.3 6.4 6.4 9.2 8.0 8.4 6.7 4.7 4.6 5.5 10.3

4.4 6.3 3.3 4.7 5.7 ... 7.4 4.2 4.5 4.5 11.0 ... 4.7 5.7 6.6 3.6 8.8 4.1 12.6 3.2 5.9 5.5 8.3 9.8 8.4 6.4 4.7 5.7 4.4 9.3

4.9 6.8 4.5 5.6 6.5 ... ... ... ... 6.1 12.7 ... 5.6 6.0 8.0 4.3 10.8 5.0 ... 3.8 6.0 6.0 10.5 9.7 8.6 ... 5.0 5.3 4.8 11.0

September September December September December December September December December September September December September June September September September March December June September June September October November December December June June December

4.8 15.7 10.2 8.6 9.9 8.5 8.0 9.5 17.0 20.4 8.0 8.9 ... 15.0

5.4 14.4 7.4 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.6 7.9 15.9 15.3 7.9 9.2 16.2 13.4

5.9 14.3 7.3 10.3 7.6 8.3 7.6 7.6 13.3 10.4 7.8 8.6 18.5 11.9

5.8 13.0 7.7 12.5 7.7 8.2 7.9 7.9 11.4 8.0 8.1 7.3 21.0 13.0

6.7 14.3 8.5 13.5 9.2 8.0 7.3 9.2 11.5 8.4 7.9 8.1 23.6 11.8

8.8 15.3 11.0 14.0 8.5 8.8 7.4 8.0 11.9 8.6 9.6 7.0 23.3 13.6

September November September September December September December December September November September November June November

17.8 19.0 22.0 13.1 18.3 13.3 13.8

21.5 19.8 18.8 13.0 15.7 12.8 12.4

22.9 17.9 21.2 13.2 16.7 12.1 13.3

22.5 16.0 20.4 15.2 16.3 13.3 12.5

23.0 18.6 17.1 12.2 17.0 13.6 14.0

21.0 16.7 19.0 –9.3 18.1 15.7 13.2

December December November December November December September

4.3 4.0 5.9 10.2 8.2 6.7 12.5 8.0

4.7 4.4 6.4 9.8 7.7 7.9 11.8 8.9

3.3 5.1 6.6 10.8 7.6 9.4 11.7 8.9

4.6 5.8 6.4 10.6 7.4 10.5 11.7 9.5

6.5 6.1 ... 10.3 8.0 10.0 10.6 ...

... 5.6 ... 11.0 9.0 10.1 11.4 ...

June December March September November December September December



Middle East and North Africa Egypt22,29 Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia Tunisia United Arab Emirates24 Sub-Saharan Africa Gabon25 Ghana26 Kenya Lesotho Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone5 South Africa Swaziland Uganda Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia1 Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica2 Dominican Republic1 Ecuador1 El Salvador Guatemala Mexico1 Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay3 Venezuela

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

... 7.2 12.1 6.8 7.6 12.3 8.0 ... 11.1

6.1 8.2 12.7 7.5 7.7 14.6 8.8 ... 11.4

6.3 10.7 11.7 9.1 7.4 12.9 9.3 ... 11.1

5.5 10.6 12.0 8.9 6.9 14.5 9.9 ... 9.4

6.2 10.4 11.6 8.5 7.3 13.3 10.0 ... 10.6

6.3 10.4 ... 7.0 7.3 15.1 11.8 ... 12.6

September December September November June June November

13.2 6.4 11.9 10.3 7.4 8.8 9.9 8.7 7.7 12.7 8.2 14.3 10.3

11.1 7.2 12.1 10.2 6.6 7.8 12.4 9.4 7.6 10.3 7.9 14.4 10.3

10.2 15.0 12.4 7.5 6.3 7.5 14.7 9.3 8.3 17.0 7.9 13.7 10.9

7.0 13.6 12.6 8.2 7.2 7.9 16.3 10.3 8.3 16.7 7.9 17.3 10.4

10.7 12.8 11.4 7.9 7.5 8.0 18.0 12.3 9.1 18.7 ... 17.6 13.2

... 17.0 13.0 ... 7.7 8.8 18.4 14.3 9.3 18.9 ... 16.9 13.4

December December October December December September March March December December December September June

11.8 11.5 10.1 7.0 12.1 9.4 8.9 8.5 9.7 8.9 11.2 13.2 10.5 9.8 8.3 12.5

12.9 11.3 9.8 6.9 12.3 9.7 9.4 8.4 10.1 8.5 12.5 12.8 11.0 7.7 8.6 11.6

13.4 10.0 10.0 6.6 12.0 10.3 10.0 8.7 10.7 8.2 13.6 12.0 12.5 9.5 9.8 8.8

13.1 9.6 9.9 6.7 12.1 10.1 9.5 8.7 11.8 9.2 13.8 13.7 11.6 8.8 10.5 9.2

12.9 9.3 9.3 6.9 12.2 13.3 9.7 8.8 12.7 10.3 9.2 13.4 11.2 8.3 8.9 9.4

13.4 8.6 9.2 7.4 13.6 13.9 10.2 7.9 13.4 10.5 9.7 11.4 10.3 9.9 8.9 9.7

November November October December November December December November November December September November November November December November

November

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Due to differences in national accounting, taxation, and supervisory regimes, FSI data are not strictly comparable across countries. 1Commercial banks. 2Banking sector excludes offshore banks. 3The data exclude the state mortgage bank. 4Staff estimates. 5Tier 1 capital to total assets. 6A revised banking law took effect affecting the series from March 2009 onward. 7Covers institutions whose ultimate parent is regulated by Irish authorities. 8Tier 1 capital to total average assets. 9Based on unconsolidated data. 10Numerator is total own funds; denominator includes assets of branches of foreign banks. 11From 2004 onward in accordance with IFRS. 12Covers the three largest commercial banks and large savings banks (six through 2005, five in 2006, and four in 2007). 13Data before 2004 not directly comparable with data after 2005; end-year data for 2007 and 2008; annual average for previous years. 2009 data not fully comparable with the data before due to differences in consolidation. 14Regulatory capital to total assets. 15For 2005–06 the figures are for the sample of institutions that are already complying with IFRS, accounting as of December 2004 for about 87 percent of the usual aggregate considered. From 2007 onward, the sample of banking institutions under analysis was expanded to include the institutions that adopted IFRS in 2006. 16Total assets to own resources of credit institutions and their consolidated groups. 17Data for the four large banking groups.


53


Table 23 (concluded) 18The 2007 and 2008 ratios were calculated from numbers that originate from the Basel I as well as from the Basel II approach. Therefore, interpretation must be done carefully since they can vary within +/–10 percent. 19Banking institutions (policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, joint stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, urban credit cooperatives, rural credit cooperatives, postal savings, foreign banks, and nonbank financial institutions). 20Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the indicated calendar year. 21Tier 1 capital to total risk-weighted assets. 22Based on data for fiscal year ending June 30 for public sector banks and December 31 for other banks. 23Data for 2007 and 2008 restated on the basis of annual audits. 24Data for national banks only. 25Loan loss provisions are excluded from the definition of capital. The 2007 decline of capital to total assets is related to the financing of Gabon’s buyback of its Paris Club debt. In December Gabon issued a US$1 billion eurobond whose proceeds were deposited in the local branch of a foreign bank, which in turn deposited the money at its headquarters. In January 2008 the eurobond proceeds were used to finance the Paris Club debt buyback. 26Tier 1 capital to adjusted assets. 27Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the next calendar year; for all banks. 28All FDIC-insured institutions. 29Preliminary data for September 2009, not yet reflecting final audited accounts. 30Structural break in 2008 due to a change in financial statements consolidation method. 2008 data based on unaudited financial statements. 31Not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but included here for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure. 32Includes participation banks. 33Domestic banks.

54



Table 24. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans (In percent)

Advanced economies Australia40 Austria12,13 Belgium13 Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland14 France15,20 Germany Greece Hong Kong SAR24 Iceland16 Ireland48 Israel Italy17 Japan41 Korea24 Luxembourg18 Malta Netherlands Norway Portugal19 Singapore Slovak Republic20 Slovenia Spain21 Sweden22 Switzerland United Kingdom United States42 Emerging and developing economies Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria47 Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia45 Lithuania6 Macedonia, FYR7 Montenegro8 Poland7,9 Romania Serbia10 Turkey43 Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia27 Belarus11 Georgia46 Kazakhstan29 Moldova Russia Ukraine24 Developing Asia Bangladesh China23 India25 Indonesia1 Malaysia Pakistan30 Philippines26 Thailand

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

0.2 2.7 2.3 0.7 4.0 0.7 0.4 4.2 4.9 7.0 2.3 0.9 0.8 2.5 6.6 2.9 1.9 0.3 6.5 1.5 1.0 2.0 5.0 2.6 3.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.9 0.8

0.2 2.6 2.0 0.5 3.9 0.4 0.3 3.5 4.0 6.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 2.3 5.3 1.8 1.2 0.2 3.9 1.2 0.7 1.5 3.8 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.7

0.2 2.7 1.7 0.4 3.7 0.3 0.3 3.0 3.4 5.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.9 4.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.8 0.8 0.6 1.3 2.8 3.2 2.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.8

0.2 2.2 1.1 0.7 2.8 0.3 0.3 2.7 2.6 4.5 0.8 ... 0.8 1.4 4.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 1.8 ... 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.9 1.4

0.8 1.9 1.7 1.1 3.3 ... 0.4 2.8 2.8 5.0 1.2 ... 2.6 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.1 ... 1.6 ... 0.8 1.9 1.7 3.2 1.8 3.4 1.0 0.5 1.6 2.9

1.1 2.3 2.7 1.2 5.3 ... ... ... ... 7.2 1.5 ... 7.5 1.5 6.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 ... ... 1.1 2.8 2.3 4.3 2.3 5.1 2.0 ... 3.3 5.4

September September December September December December June December December September September December September June June September September March December December September June September October November December December December June December

4.2 6.1 2.0 7.5 0.3 1.8 1.1 2.2 17.0 5.2 14.9 8.1 ... 6.5

2.3 5.3 2.2 6.2 0.2 2.3 0.7 0.6 15.0 5.3 11.0 2.6 ... 5.1

3.1 4.0 2.2 5.2 0.2 2.6 0.5 1.0 11.2 2.9 7.4 2.8 ... 3.9

3.4 3.0 2.1 4.8 0.4 2.3 0.8 1.0 7.5 3.2 5.2 4.0 ... 3.6

6.6 3.1 2.5 4.9 1.9 3.0 3.6 4.6 6.8 7.2 4.4 6.5 11.3 3.8

9.7 4.8 6.0 6.4 5.2 5.9 16.4 19.4 9.5 12.4 7.0 14.8 15.5 5.7

September September September September December September December December September November September October December November

2.1 ... 2.0 ... 6.9 3.3 30.0

1.9 3.1 1.2 ... 5.3 2.6 19.6

2.5 2.8 0.8 ... 4.4 2.4 17.8

2.4 1.9 0.8 ... 3.7 2.5 13.2

4.4 1.7 4.1 5.1 5.2 3.8 17.4

4.8 4.2 7.3 21.2 16.6 9.6 33.8


17.5 13.2 7.2 4.5 11.7 11.6 14.4 11.9

13.2 8.6 5.2 7.6 9.6 8.3 10.0 9.1

12.8 7.1 3.3 6.1 8.5 6.9 7.5 8.4

14.5 6.2 2.5 4.1 6.5 7.6 5.8 7.9

11.2 2.4 2.4 3.2 4.8 10.5 4.5 5.7

... 1.6 2.4 3.8 3.8 12.2 4.6 ...

June December March September November December September December


55



Middle East and North Africa Egypt28,44 Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia31 Tunisia32 United Arab Emirates33 Sub-Saharan Africa Gabon34 Ghana Kenya35 Lesotho Mozambique36 Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal37 Sierra Leone South Africa38 Swaziland39 Uganda Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia1 Brazil Chile2 Colombia Costa Rica3 Dominican Republic1 Ecuador1 El Salvador Guatemala Mexico1 Panama Paraguay Peru4 Uruguay5 Venezuela

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

23.6 10.3 5.3 17.7 19.4 11.0 2.8 23.6 12.5

26.5 6.6 5.0 16.4 15.7 7.0 1.9 20.9 8.3

18.2 4.3 3.9 13.5 10.9 4.9 2.0 19.3 6.3

19.3 4.1 3.2 10.1 7.9 3.2 2.1 17.6 2.9

14.8 4.2 3.1 7.5 6.0 2.1 1.4 15.5 2.5

14.7 6.4 ... 6.0 5.5 2.8 ... ... 4.6

September June September November December June December December November

16.0 16.3 29.3 1.0 5.9 2.4 21.6 31.0 12.6 16.5 1.8 7.2 2.2

14.1 13.0 25.6 3.0 3.5 2.3 18.1 29.0 11.9 26.8 1.5 7.0 2.3

10.7 7.9 21.3 3.0 3.1 2.6 8.8 25.0 16.8 27.8 1.1 7.7 2.9

7.6 6.4 10.9 3.0 2.6 2.8 8.4 18.1 18.6 31.7 1.4 7.5 4.1

8.5 7.7 9.0 4.0 1.9 3.1 6.3 12.6 19.1 17.9 3.9 7.6 2.2

9.8 14.9 8.0 4.0 1.8 2.9 6.6 13.6 18.7 10.6 5.5 8.1 4.0

October December October September December September March September December December June September June

10.7 14.0 2.9 1.2 3.3 2.0 7.3 6.4 2.3 7.1 2.5 1.8 10.8 9.5 4.7 2.8

5.2 11.3 3.5 0.9 2.7 1.5 5.9 4.9 1.9 4.2 1.8 1.8 6.6 6.3 3.6 1.2

3.4 8.7 3.5 0.7 2.6 1.5 4.5 3.3 1.9 4.6 2.0 1.5 3.3 4.1 1.9 1.1

2.7 5.6 3.0 0.8 3.3 1.2 4.0 2.9 2.1 5.8 2.7 1.4 1.3 2.7 1.1 1.2

2.7 4.3 3.1 1.0 4.0 1.5 3.5 2.5 2.8 2.4 3.2 1.7 1.2 2.2 1.0 1.9

3.1 3.9 4.5 1.4 4.6 2.0 4.0 3.5 4.4 2.7 3.4 1.4 1.7 2.7 1.0 2.6

November November October December November December December November November December September November November December December November

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Due to differences in national accounting, taxation, and supervisory regimes, FSI data are not strictly comparable across countries. 1Commercial banks. 2After adoption of IFRS in 2009, nonperforming loans include defaulted loans and loans overdue 90 days or more, but 2009 figure here is consistent with pre-2009 definition, i.e., only includes defaulted loans. 3Banking sector excludes offshore banks. 4Nonperforming loans include restructured and refinanced loans. 5The data exclude the state mortgage bank. 6Until 2004 nonperforming loans are defined as loans in “substandard,” “doubtful,” and “loss” loan categories. Data for 2005 to 2007 nonperforming loans are loans with payments overdue past 60 days. Data for 2008 onward nonperforming loans are impaired loans plus nonimpaired loans overdue more than 60 days. 7Includes only loans to the nonfinancial sector. 8A revised banking law took effect affecting the series from March 2009 onward. 9Domestic banks only. 10The time series started in 2008; prior to 2008 data are not comparable. 11Series revised due to new loan classification system introduced in 2009. 12Comparability across years is limited due to reporting changes and introduction of new reporting schemes. 13Unconsolidated data. 14Loans are defined as the sum of claims on credit institutions, the public, and public sector entities. 15Gross doubtful debts. 16Covers two largest commercial banks and large savings banks (six through 2005, five in 2006, and four in 2007). 17Exposure to borrowers in a state of insolvency (even when not recognized in the court of law) plus exposures to borrowers in a temporary situation of difficulty.

56



Table 24 (concluded) 18End-year data for 2007; annual average for previous years.

19For 2005–06 the figures are for the sample of institutions that are already complying with IFRS, accounting as of December 2004 for about 87 percent of the usual aggregate considered. From 2007 onward, the sample of banking institutions under analysis was expanded to include the institutions that adopted IFRS in 2006; on a consolidated basis. Nonperforming loans are defined as credit to customers overdue. Data for 2008 are preliminary. 20Break in series in 2006. 21Doubtful exposures to other resident sectors over total lending to other resident sectors. 22Data for the four large banking groups. 23Break in 2005; data started to cover all commercial banks. Previous years data covered “major commercial banks” (comprising state-owned commercial banks and joint stock commercial banks). 24Loans classified as substandard, doubtful, and loss. 25Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the indicated calendar year. 26The data exclude interbank loans. 27Loans less than 90 days past due are included. 28Based on data for fiscal year ending June 30 for public sector banks, and December 31 for other banks. 29Series starts in 2008. 30Data for 2007 and 2008 restated on the basis of annual audits. 31Gross nonperforming loans to net loans. 32Includes former development banks; data for 2008 are preliminary. 33Data for national banks only. 34Total loans are the sum of claims on the economy net of claims on financial institutions, credits to nonresidents, and claims on government net of treasury bonds and related instruments (bons d’équipement). 35After 2006, the decline in nonperforming loans reflects the impact of government recapitalization of the National Bank of Kenya. 36Nonperforming loans are defined according to Mozambican regulatory standards. 37Nonperforming loan changes in 2006 were due to Chemical Industries of Senegal (Industries Chimiques du Sénégal – ICS). In 2008, ICS was recapitalized and the government guarantee for its bank loans was lifted. However, the loans in question remain classified as nonperforming for the time being, although without the need to provision. 38The definition of nonperforming loans until end-2007 comprised doubtful and loss loans. Doubtful are loans overdue for 180 days unless well secured, or with a timely realization of the collateral. Since 2008, the indicator reflects the ratio of impaired advances to total advances (in line with Basel II definitions), a more stringent definition. 39Data are revised to include government-owned commercial banks. 40Impaired assets to total assets. Figures exclude loans in arrears that are covered by collateral. 41Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the next calendar year; for major banks. 42All FDIC-insured institutions. 43Includes participation banks. 44Preliminary data for September 2009, not yet reflecting final audited accounts. 45Until 2006, nonperforming loans are defined as loans in the “substandard,” “doubtful,” and “loss” categories. From 2006 onward, nonperforming loans are defined as loans overdue more than 90 days. 46Not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but included here for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure; nonperforming loans are those with payments (principal and/or interest) past due 90 days or more. 472008–2009 figures include foreign bank branches. 48Covers all licensed banks (49 as of 2009Q3).


57


Table 25. Bank Provisions to Nonperforming Loans (In percent)

Advanced economies Australia Austria13,14 Belgium14 Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong SAR36 Iceland15 Ireland40 Israel Italy16 Japan33 Korea Luxembourg Malta Netherlands16 Norway Portugal17 Singapore Slovak Republic18,21 Slovenia Spain19 Sweden20 Switzerland United Kingdom16,21 United States34 Emerging and developing economies Central and Eastern Europe Albania6 Bosnia and Herzegovina7 Bulgaria39 Croatia Estonia37 Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Montenegro8 Poland9 Romania10 Serbia11 Turkey41 Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Belarus Georgia27,38 Kazakhstan28 Moldova Russia Ukraine12 Developing Asia Bangladesh China22 India23 Indonesia24 Malaysia25 Pakistan29 Philippines Thailand 58


2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

182.9 70.8 54.2 47.7 71.2 66.0 78.5 ... ... 51.4 67.0 80.9 92.7 ... ... 80.2 104.5 ... ... 69.2 124.7 83.4 73.6 86.4 80.1 322.1 70.6 90.9 61.5 168.0

203.0 71.5 51.6 49.3 64.5 75.7 85.8 ... 49.1 61.9 64.8 112.9 75.1 ... ... 79.3 131.4 ... ... 65.5 109.3 79.0 78.7 84.0 80.6 255.5 73.6 116.0 54.0 154.8

202.5 75.6 50.8 55.3 61.5 ... ... 170.0 50.0 61.8 67.6 99.6 56.7 ... 46.0 79.5 175.2 ... ... 56.0 74.2 80.5 89.5 101.7 84.3 272.2 58.0 122.6 54.6 134.8

181.8 76.4 48.0 42.1 70.4 ... ... 158.3 51.3 53.4 78.4 84.1 49.1 ... 49.4 78.3 205.2 ... ... ... 67.0 74.1 115.6 93.3 86.4 214.6 60.4 124.0 ... 91.7

74.8 62.4 67.0 34.7 67.5 ... ... 131.0 ... 48.9 71.5 ... 47.2 ... 46.1 83.2 146.3 ... ... ... 53.5 66.5 109.1 91.4 79.3 70.8 47.1 78.1 38.1 75.3

68.0 64.4 51.1 59.1 57.3 ... ... ... ... 41.9 68.3 ... 37.7 ... ... 83.2 125.2 ... ... ... 60.3 72.7 91.0 76.1 76.4 58.7 53.7 ... 30.1 58.1

September September December September December December December December December September September December September

67.0 44.6 138.0 62.3 ... 83.5 99.1 ... 95.5 77.3 61.3 16.1 ... 88.1

59.7 40.1 131.4 60.0 235.4 65.1 98.8 ... 95.8 67.4 61.6 45.6 ... 88.7

56.3 39.6 109.9 56.8 213.6 57.1 116.6 ... 100.8 78.8 57.8 51.4 ... 89.7

47.2 37.2 100.4 54.4 110.9 64.8 129.8 ... 117.0 73.6 ... 61.6 ... 86.8

42.8 37.9 109.0 48.7 57.2 58.9 61.3 ... 120.3 55.6 61.3 60.3 187.8 79.8

51.2 36.3 78.3 46.0 83.5 51.2 57.4 ... 97.6 60.5 50.2 47.9 152.9 81.9

September September September September December September December September November September October November November

77.0 32.4 199.4 ... 85.4 148.5 21.1

70.7 48.4 172.6 ... 98.9 176.9 25.0

64.3 51.3 158.1 ... 117.3 170.8 23.1

66.6 61.5 154.4 ... 113.8 144.0 26.3

38.2 70.0 146.3 215.3 94.2 118.4 29.6

46.7 44.9 141.9 178.0 52.5 94.8 32.3


26.8 14.2 56.6 137.4 55.0 70.4 58.0 79.8

28.3 24.8 60.3 60.6 59.1 76.7 72.9 83.7

45.2 34.3 58.9 84.7 64.6 77.8 75.0 82.7

43.0 39.2 56.1 104.5 77.3 86.1 81.5 86.5

50.1 116.4 52.6 118.6 89.0 69.6 86.0 97.9

... 155.0 ... 127.4 93.3 71.0 91.4 ...

June December March April November December September December

December September September December September June September October November December December December June December



Middle East and North Africa Egypt26,35 Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia Tunisia30 United Arab Emirates31 Sub-Saharan Africa Gabon Ghana Kenya Lesotho Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal32 Sierra Leone South Africa Swaziland Uganda Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia1 Brazil Chile2 Colombia Costa Rica3 Dominican Republic1 Ecuador1 El Salvador Guatemala Mexico1 Panama Paraguay Peru4 Uruguay5 Venezuela

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

60.2 63.8 82.5 46.1 59.3 87.1 175.4 45.1 94.6

51.0 78.4 107.2 50.2 67.1 97.4 202.8 46.8 95.7

76.2 79.6 95.8 54.4 71.2 109.6 182.3 49.0 98.2

74.6 67.8 92.0 56.9 75.2 111.8 142.9 53.2 100.0

92.1 63.4 84.7 61.3 75.3 127.3 153.3 56.8 101.5

94.5 48.9 ... 63.8 74.1 113.8 ... ... 79.0

September June September November December June December December November

53.6 ... 102.9 ... ... 95.2 96.2 55.1 75.7 43.1 61.3 78.0 97.8

55.5 ... 115.6 167.0 ... 85.3 81.0 48.8 75.4 10.3 64.3 78.0 103.8

57.4 ... 115.6 125.0 ... 90.3 59.5 83.5 52.0 59.7 ... 76.0 74.4

59.8 ... ... 115.0 ... 77.2 ... 67.0 53.8 44.5 ... 77.0 71.8

61.4 ... ... 118.0 ... 64.7 ... 66.3 51.5 54.4 ... 75.0 120.3

63.2 ... ... 113.0 ... 62.8 ... 65.9 53.1 37.9 ... 76.3 71.9

October

June December September December December December September June

102.9 84.2 214.5 165.5 149.7 122.6 110.8 119.0 132.3 ... 201.4 149.4 54.6 68.7 ... 130.2

124.5 85.9 179.8 177.6 166.9 153.0 127.6 143.7 126.7 43.2 241.3 116.2 57.7 80.3 220.8 196.3

129.9 106.5 179.9 198.5 153.6 162.2 144.7 182.7 116.4 39.6 210.0 128.5 59.1 100.3 410.6 229.1

129.6 132.4 181.9 210.2 132.6 180.5 134.5 199.8 120.0 42.7 168.9 132.9 78.2 131.4 666.0 175.7

131.4 153.7 189.0 179.9 120.5 121.6 133.1 215.9 110.4 73.2 161.2 104.9 77.7 151.4 806.8 148.0

123.0 161.5 156.0 177.5 122.5 99.0 114.7 172.3 99.0 89.3 163.8 116.9 78.3 139.3 685.4 135.7

November November October December November December December November November December September November November December June November

September September

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Due to differences in national accounting, taxation, and supervisory regimes, FSI data are not strictly comparable across countries. 1Commercial banks. 2After adoption of IFRS in 2009, nonperforming loans include defaulted loans and loans overdue 90 days or more, but 2009 figure here is consistent with pre-2009 definition, i.e., only includes defaulted loans. 3Banking sector excludes offshore banks. 4Provisions with respect to nonperforming loans including restructured and refinanced loans. 5Definition has changed from previous years. Provisions include specific, general, off-balance-sheet, and statistical provisions. The data exclude the state mortgage bank. 6Provisions for gross nonperforming loans. 7Provisions to nonperforming assets. 8A revised banking law took effect affecting the series from March 2009 onward. 9Data only for domestic banks for 2003 to 2006. 10As of 2005 the definition of nonperforming loans was changed to unadjusted exposure from loans and interests falling under “doubtful” and “loss” loan categories to total classified loans and interests excluding off-balance-sheet items. 11Total gross nonperforming loans covered with total provisions (IFRS and regulatory). The time series started in 2008, prior 2008 data are not comparable. 12Nonperforming loans are those classified as substandard, doubtful, and loss. 13Comparability across years is limited due to reporting changes and introduction of new reporting schemes. 14Unconsolidated data. 15Covers two largest commercial banks and large savings banks (six through 2005, five in 2006, and four in 2007). 16Banking groups.


59


Table 25 (concluded) 17For 2005–06 the figures are for the sample of institutions that are already complying with IFRS, accounting as of December 2004 for about 87 percent of the usual aggregate considered. From 2007 onward, the sample of banking institutions under analysis was expanded to include the institutions that adopted IFRS in 2006. 18Measured as the share of provisions on all loans to nonperforming loans (i.e., not as provisions on nonperforming loans to nonperforming loans). Volume of provisions on nonperforming loans represent approximately 2/3 of provisions on all loans. 19Allowances and provisions to doubtful exposures. 20Data for the four large banking groups. 21Break in the data series in 2006. 22Break in 2008; data started to cover all commercial banks. Previous years data covered “major commercial banks” (comprising state-owned commercial banks and joint stock commercial banks). 23Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the indicated calendar year. 24For largest 15 banks. 25General, specific, and interest-in-suspense provisions. 26Based on data for fiscal year ending June 30 for public sector banks, and December 31 for other banks. 27Specific provisions to nonperforming loans. 28Series starts in 2008. 29Data for 2007 and 2008 restated on the basis of annual audits. 30Includes former development banks; data for 2008 are preliminary. 31Data for national banks only. 32Nonperforming loan changes in 2006 were due to Chemical Industries of Senegal (Industries Chimiques du Sénégal-ICS). In 2008, ICS was recapitalized and the government guarantee for its bank loans was lifted. However, the loans in question remain classified as nonperforming for the time being, although without the need to provision. 33Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the next calendar year; coverage of nonperforming loans by provisions for all banks. 34All FDIC-insured institutions. 35Preliminary data for September 2009, not yet reflecting final audited accounts. 36Provisions to classified loans for all authorized institutions. Under the HKMA’s five-grade loan classification system, loans in the substandard, doubtful, and loss categories are collectively known as classified loans. 37As number of nonperforming loans has started to grow, ratio of provisions to nonperforming loans has decreased significantly in 2008 and 2009 compared to previous years. 38Not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but included here for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure. 392008–2009 figures include foreign bank branches. 40Covers all licensed banks (49 as of 2009Q3). 41Includes participation banks.

60



Table 26. Bank Return on Assets (In percent)

Advanced economies Australia31 Austria12 Belgium Canada11 Czech Republic2 Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong SAR19 Iceland13 Ireland35 Israel Italy Japan32 Korea21 Luxembourg11,14 Malta Netherlands11 Norway Portugal2,15 Singapore Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain16 Sweden17 Switzerland14 United Kingdom United States11,33 Emerging and developing economies Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina6 Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania2 Macedonia, FYR7 Montenegro8 Poland2,9 Romania10 Serbia2 Turkey11, 36 Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Belarus Georgia2,34 Kazakhstan Moldova Russia Ukraine Developing Asia Bangladesh18 China India20 Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan2,24 Philippines Thailand

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

1.1 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.3

1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 0.7 1.4 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.3

1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.3

1.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8

0.7 0.1 –1.3 0.4 1.2 ... 0.8 0.0 –0.3 0.2 1.8 ... ... 0.0 0.3 –0.2 0.5 0.2 0.7 –0.4 0.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 –0.4 0.0

0.6 0.4 –0.1 0.4 1.5 ... ... ... ... 0.2 1.6 ... ... 0.2 ... 0.2 ... 0.6 ... 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 –0.1 0.1

June September December September December December June December December September September December December June December September December March December June September June September October November December December June June December

1.3 0.7 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.6 –0.3 1.4 2.5 –1.2 2.1

1.4 0.7 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.4 2.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.1 1.5

1.4 0.9 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3

1.6 0.9 2.4 1.6 2.6 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.8 0.7 1.7 1.3 1.7 2.6

0.9 0.4 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.4 –0.6 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.8

0.2 0.2 1.2 1.3 –5.8 1.1 –3.5 –4.2 0.7 –0.9 1.2 0.3 1.3 2.6

September September September September December September December December September September September November December November

3.2 1.5 1.9 1.2 3.7 2.9 1.1

3.1 1.3 3.0 1.6 3.2 3.2 1.3

3.6 1.7 2.7 1.4 3.4 3.3 1.6

2.9 1.7 1.9 2.6 3.9 3.0 1.5

3.1 1.4 –2.6 0.2 3.5 1.8 1.0

0.7 1.4 –1.1 –23.5 0.2 0.7 –3.2

December December November October November December September

–0.5 0.5 0.8 3.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.2

0.6 0.6 0.9 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.4

–1.2 0.9 0.7 2.6 1.3 2.1 1.3 0.8

0.9 0.9 0.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.1

1.3 1.0 1.0 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.0

... 1.1 1.0 2.6 1.2 0.9 1.1 ...

June June March September September December September December


61



Middle East and North Africa Egypt22 Jordan23 Kuwait Lebanon2 Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia Tunisia25 United Arab Emirates26 Sub-Saharan Africa Gabon27 Ghana Kenya Lesotho28 Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal2 Sierra Leone South Africa29 Swaziland30 Uganda Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia1 Brazil Chile2 Colombia Costa Rica3 Dominican Republic1,4 Ecuador1 El Salvador Guatemala Mexico1 Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay5 Venezuela

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

0.5 1.1 2.5 0.7 0.8 1.7 2.4 0.5 2.1

0.6 2.0 3.0 0.7 0.5 2.3 3.4 0.6 2.7

0.8 1.7 3.2 0.9 1.3 2.3 4.0 0.7 2.2

0.9 1.6 3.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.8 0.9 2.0

0.8 1.4 3.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.0 2.2

... 1.2 ... 1.0 1.3 2.2 2.0 ... 1.5

June 2008 June September November June June November December November

2.8 5.8 2.1 3.0 1.5 2.1 3.1 1.8 1.8 9.9 1.3 3.5 4.3

2.6 4.6 2.4 2.0 1.9 3.5 0.9 0.9 1.6 8.1 1.2 2.7 3.4

2.5 4.8 2.8 2.0 4.0 1.5 1.6 2.4 1.6 5.8 1.4 2.9 3.1

2.7 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.8 3.5 2.1 1.5 1.6 3.1 1.4 1.9 3.9

1.8 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.0 2.4 1.4 2.2 2.1 4.0 3.5

... 2.8 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 1.8 1.0 ... 1.6 1.0 2.4 3.2


–0.5 –0.1 2.2 1.2 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.2 –0.1 5.9

0.9 0.7 2.9 1.2 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.6 3.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 0.8 3.7

1.9 1.3 2.7 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.2 3.5 1.7 3.3 2.2 1.0 3.0

1.5 1.9 2.9 1.1 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.0 1.2 1.5 2.7 2.0 3.1 2.5 1.3 2.5

1.6 1.7 1.5 1.2 2.4 1.8 2.7 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.5 2.3 3.5 2.6 1.0 2.5

2.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 2.5 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 2.7 2.3 1.3 1.9

November November October December November December December September November December September November November November December November

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Due to differences in national accounting, taxation, and supervisory regimes, FSI data are not strictly comparable across countries. 1Commercial banks. 2After tax. 3Banking sector excludes offshore banks. 4Break in 2005. 5The data exclude the state mortgage bank. 62009 figure staff estimate. 7Adjusted for unallocated provisions for potential loan losses. Since end-March 2009 adjusted for unrecognized impairment. 8A revised banking law took effect affecting the series from March 2009 onward. 9Domestic banks. 10Starting with 2008 return on assets represents net income before extraordinary items and taxes to total average assets. 11Annualized for 2009. 12Starting in 2004 data reported on a consolidated basis. Comparability across years is limited due to changes in reporting requirements or introduction of new reporting schemes. 13Covers the three largest commercial banks and large savings banks (six through 2005, five in 2006, and four in 2007). 14Income before provisions and before taxes to total assets. 15For 2005–06 the figures are for the sample of institutions that are already complying with IFRS, accounting as of December 2004 for about 87 percent of the usual aggregate considered. From 2007 onward, the sample of banking institutions under analysis was expanded to include the institutions that adopted IFRS in 2006. 16Consolidated profits (losses) for the period (after taxes) over average total assets up to 2008; 2009 data from FSR.

62



Table 26 (concluded) 17Data for the four large banking groups. The data refer to a four-quarter moving average for the assets.

18In early 2008, following the corporatization of the state-owned commercial banks, goodwill assets were created for three of these banks equal to their accumulated losses. 19Net interest margin, not comparable with the other indicators in the table.

20Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the indicated calendar year. 21Excludes earnings from sale of equity stakes.

22Based on data for fiscal year ending June 30 for public sector banks and December 31 for other banks. 23Semi-annual return on assets (as of June) multiplied by 2.

24Data for 2007 and 2008 restated on the basis of annual audits.

25Includes former development banks; data for 2008 are preliminary. 26Data for national banks only.

27The ratio of after-tax profits to the average of beginning- and end-period total assets. 28Since 2005, affected by the operations of two new banks.

29There is a break in the series in 2008. The figure shown for 2008 is the return on interest-earning assets. 30Latest data not annualized.

31Gross profits until 2003; return on assets after taxes from 2004.

32Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the indicated calendar year; for all banks. For fiscal year 2009 the figure is estimated by doubling the net income in the first half of the fiscal year (from April to September 2009). 33All FDIC-insured institutions 34Not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but included here for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure. 35Covers all licensed banks (49 as of 2009Q3). 36Includes participation banks.


63


Table 27. Bank Return on Equity (In percent)

Advanced economies Australia37 Austria13 Belgium Canada12,38 Czech Republic14 Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong SAR25 Iceland15 Ireland42 Israel Italy Japan39 Korea Luxembourg16 Malta Netherlands12,17 Norway Portugal2,18 Singapore26 Slovak Republic19 Slovenia Spain20 Sweden21 Switzerland22 United Kingdom United States12,40 Emerging and developing economies Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina6 Bulgaria7 Croatia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania2 Macedonia, FYR8 Montenegro9 Poland2,10 Romania11 Serbia2 Turkey12,43 Commonwealth of Independent States Armenia Belarus Georgia2,41 Kazakhstan29 Moldova Russia Ukraine Developing Asia Bangladesh23 China24 India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan2,30 Philippines Thailand 64


2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

16.0 14.8 15.8 19.5 24.6 21.2 12.4 10.6 4.2 6.4 20.3 30.9 20.7 17.9 9.3 4.1 15.2 9.9 11.9 16.8 14.9 12.8 11.6 11.9 12.8 14.8 16.0 14.3 10.9 13.2

14.7 14.8 18.5 17.1 26.4 22.2 10.1 11.8 13.0 15.9 19.1 41.7 19.6 19.4 9.7 11.3 18.4 17.0 13.0 15.4 18.4 16.8 11.2 16.9 12.8 17.5 18.7 18.0 11.8 12.4

16.7 16.8 22.4 21.8 23.4 21.9 11.1 14.0 9.4 12.7 19.8 39.1 19.1 17.6 14.3 8.5 14.6 22.1 12.7 15.4 18.4 17.0 13.7 16.6 15.1 20.6 21.0 17.7 8.9 12.3

17.4 17.0 13.2 20.1 25.4 17.3 14.3 9.8 6.6 14.8 25.1 22.4 16.4 20.0 12.8 6.1 14.6 20.4 11.9 18.7 17.0 14.8 12.9 16.6 16.3 20.9 19.7 15.4 6.2 7.8

14.1 2.6 –36.5 9.8 21.7 ... 10.9 –1.0 –7.7 3.2 13.9 ... ... 0.2 4.8 –6.9 7.1 5.5 4.5 –12.5 10.7 3.5 10.7 14.1 8.1 13.9 14.3 5.4 –10.3 0.4

11.3 8.3 –2.7 9.0 26.0 ... ... ... ... 4.7 16.1 ... ... 4.1 ... 4.9 ... 11.2 ... –0.8 13.3 6.8 11.1 8.4 6.3 9.0 5.4 4.1 –2.0 0.9

June September December September December December June December December September September December December June December September December March December June September June September October November December December June June December

21.1 5.8 19.6 16.1 20.0 25.3 21.4 13.5 3.1 –1.2 16.9 19.3 ... 14.0

22.2 6.2 21.4 15.1 21.0 24.5 27.1 13.5 7.5 4.2 20.6 15.4 6.5 10.9

20.2 8.5 25.0 12.7 19.8 23.8 25.6 13.6 12.3 6.8 22.5 13.6 9.7 19.1

20.7 8.9 24.8 10.9 30.0 18.4 24.3 25.9 15.0 6.2 22.4 11.5 8.5 19.6

11.4 4.3 23.1 9.9 13.2 11.6 4.6 13.5 12.5 –6.9 21.2 17.0 9.3 15.5

1.8 2.1 10.8 7.4 –56.8 14.8 –41.6 –48.1 6.0 –10.2 11.8 3.3 5.7 18.8

September September September September December September December December September September September November December November

18.4 7.8 7.9 11.5 17.8 20.3 8.4

15.5 6.8 15.1 16.6 15.4 24.2 10.4

15.9 9.6 15.7 14.6 20.5 26.3 13.5

14.9 10.7 9.7 18.4 24.0 22.7 12.7

13.6 9.6 –12.6 1.9 19.9 13.3 8.5

3.4 8.9 –6.1 ... 1.0 4.9 –23.8


–12.1 13.7 20.8 22.8 16.3 20.3 7.1 16.8

12.1 15.1 13.3 16.7 16.8 25.8 8.8 14.2

–37.3 14.9 12.7 16.2 16.2 23.8 10.6 8.8

18.7 16.7 13.2 17.8 19.7 15.4 10.8 7.3

20.3 17.1 12.5 13.4 18.5 7.8 6.9 ...

... ... 12.5 35.9 13.0 8.6 9.4 ...

June December March September September December September December



Middle East and North Africa Egypt27 Jordan28 Kuwait Lebanon2 Morocco Oman Saudi Arabia31 Tunisia32 United Arab Emirates33 Sub-Saharan Africa Gabon34 Ghana2 Kenya Lesotho35 Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Senegal2 Sierra Leone South Africa Swaziland36 Uganda Western Hemisphere Argentina Bolivia1 Brazil Chile2 Colombia Costa Rica3 Dominican Republic1,4 Ecuador1 El Salvador Guatemala Mexico1 Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay5 Venezuela

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Latest

9.8 13.1 20.9 9.3 10.9 13.5 31.7 4.8 18.6

10.2 20.9 22.9 11.0 6.3 15.6 38.5 5.9 22.5

14.3 15.0 27.1 10.1 17.4 17.8 43.4 7.0 18.2

15.6 12.6 28.1 12.1 20.6 14.3 28.5 10.1 22.0

14.1 11.5 27.8 13.8 16.7 12.6 22.7 11.2 21.1

... 9.4 ... 13.9 17.0 14.2 16.6 ... 12.1

June 2008 June September November June June November December November

21.3 33.7 22.0 27.0 20.6 24.2 27.4 20.3 17.6 32.9 16.2 28.5 37.6

21.1 23.6 25.0 15.0 26.9 45.6 7.1 9.9 15.8 28.0 15.2 19.0 28.6

23.5 39.6 28.6 27.0 60.8 19.9 10.4 27.0 14.6 17.0 18.3 21.1 25.7

32.3 35.8 27.5 31.6 50.7 44.9 13.1 15.5 15.3 10.3 18.1 14.8 31.4

20.8 23.7 25.2 37.0 44.7 52.1 22.0 18.5 13.0 7.2 28.7 22.7 25.0

... 17.5 26.9 50.0 36.6 33.7 10.0 7.0 ... 4.0 17.5 14.4 20.3


–4.2 –1.2 22.1 16.7 23.0 16.7 21.3 16.5 10.9 14.0 19.0 16.7 18.3 11.3 –0.9 45.2

7.0 6.4 29.5 17.9 22.1 20.1 22.1 18.5 11.8 19.1 25.4 15.7 22.6 22.2 10.3 32.2

14.3 13.3 27.3 18.6 20.2 18.7 26.1 24.0 14.6 15.0 25.9 13.3 35.3 23.9 11.6 31.6

11.0 21.2 28.8 16.2 19.5 13.4 28.0 20.9 11.3 16.8 19.9 15.7 38.2 27.9 12.8 32.4

13.4 20.3 15.3 15.2 20.0 14.3 28.3 20.0 8.7 16.3 15.5 16.6 43.9 31.1 10.9 29.4

19.6 19.6 13.0 18.0 19.6 8.7 25.3 13.0 3.8 15.7 13.1 12.5 33.5 24.5 15.0 21.7

November November October November November December December September November December September November November December December November

Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates. Note: Due to differences in national accounting, taxation, and supervisory regimes, FSI data are not strictly comparable across countries. 1Commercial banks. 2After tax. 3Banking sector excludes offshore banks. 4Break in 2005. 5The data exclude the state mortgage bank. 62009 figure staff estimate. 7Ratio based on Tier 1 capital. 8Adjusted for unallocated provisions for potential loan losses. Since end-March 2009 adjusted for unrecognized impairment. 9A revised banking law took effect affecting the series from March 2009 onward. 10Domestic banks. 11Starting with 2008, return on equity represents net income before extraordinary items and taxes to total average equity. 12Annualized for 2009. 13From 2004 on a consolidated basis. Comparability across years is limited due to changes in reporting requirements or introduction of new reporting schemes. 14Profit (loss) after taxation in percent of Tier 1 capital. 15Covers the three largest commercial banks and large savings banks (six through 2005, five in 2006, and four in 2007). 16Data before 2005 not directly comparable; net after-tax income to total regulatory capital; March 2009 data annualized and not directly comparable to previous data due to differences in consolidation. 17Revised data.


65


Table 27 (concluded) 18For 2005–06 the figures are for the sample of institutions that are already complying with IFRS, accounting as of December 2004 for about 87 percent of the usual aggregate considered. From 2007 onward, the sample of banking institutions under analysis was expanded to include the institutions that adopted IFRS in 2006. 19Excluding foreign branches. 20Consolidated profits (losses) for the period (after taxes) over average own funds of the group up to 2008; 2009 data from FSR. 21Data for the four large banking groups. 22Gross profits. 23In early 2008, following the corporatization of the state-owned commercial banks, goodwill assets were created for three of these banks equal to their accumulated losses. 24Total banking industry, except for 2006, which refers only to four listed state-owned banks. 252005 figure on a domestic consolidation basis; not strictly comparable with previous years. 26Local banks. 27Based on data for fiscal year ending June 30 for public sector banks and December 31 for other banks. 28Semi-annual return on equity (as of June) multiplied by 2. 29System is making losses on negative capital. 30Data for 2007 and 2008 restated on the basis of annual audits. 31Staff estimates. Covers commercial banks; calculated as profits divided by capital (Tier 1) plus reserves. 32Includes former development banks; data for 2008 are preliminary. 33Data for national banks only. 34The ratio of after-tax profits to the average of beginning- and end-period capital net of specific loan loss provisions. 35Since 2005, affected by the operations of two new banks. 36Latest data not annualized. 37Gross profits until 2003; return on equity after taxes from 2004. 38Net income before provisions for income taxes. 39Unless otherwise indicated, data refer to the end of the fiscal year, i.e., March of the indicated calendar year; for all banks. For fiscal year 2009 the figure is estimated by doubling the net income in the first half of the fiscal year (from April to September 2009). 40All FDIC-insured institutions. 41Not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but included here for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure. 42Covers all licensed banks (49 as of 2009Q3). 43Includes participation banks.

66


Statistical Appendix - IMF

Statistical Appendix - IMF

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