Supercomputer?

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Storyboard aka draft presentation: Bell’s Law of computer classes, i.e. Why do we have all of the different kinds of computers? Caveat: This storyboard was prepared to show what a video, voiceover or annotated slide presentation that describes and defines Bell’s Law would be like. While the talk has most of the key information that I believe is needed, a public version will require tighter and briefer descriptions and better visuals. A production version might take any number of forms e.g. lecture like this, walk through the CHM, Q &A, etc. depending on the targeted audience, their attention span, background, possible use, etc. Gordon Bell, October 2014 © Gordon Bell

The goal of this presentation is to present a view (theory) of why and how a dozen different kinds of computers i.e. computer classes have formed industries (1951 through 2015) 1. Hardware technology generations enable new classes: vacuum tubes (1951), discrete transistor circuits(1959), integrated circuits (1966), and an evolving microprocessor 4-bit (1971) > 8 > 16 (1978) > 32 (1982) > 64-bit (1995) > multiple core-multiple thread 64-bit (2005). 2. A new class establishes a well-defined computing platform (environment) based on novel processor & memory technology i.e. chips, storage, sensors, user interface, and network. 3. A class has a well defined environment for writing and hosting application programs. 4. A secondary industry forms around a class that creates application programs for end use. 5. A new class enables new applications, new use, and new users. 6. A class establishes a new industry. 7. A new class is marked by one or two entrants or first movers followed by a plethora of followers. Depending on the class e.g. minis or a component e.g. disk memories 10,…100s of companies follow. Over time, a class or industry segment evolved to a few suppliers. 8. The general nature of computers allows one kind of computer to substitute for another. Thus, applications on one class may migrate to another, making a class un-economical © Gordon Bell

© Gordon Bell

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Bell’s Law: The birth and death of computer classes Gordon Bell’s Story of why we have new kinds of lower priced computers from new companies and providing new functionality

Mainframes, supercomputers, minicomputers, networks, personal computers, the desktop cloud … smartphones …Internet of Things © Gordon Bell

ENIAC: Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer 1946-1955; Cost $500,000

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First Draft of a Report on the EDVAC… A recipe for the stored progam computer John von Neumann June 30,1945

© Gordon Bell

First commercial computers can be traced to one-of research from ENIAC & EDVAC

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Leo (Lyons Electronic Office) c1951

© Gordon Bell

Univac I c1951

© Gordon Bell

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IBM 701 c1952

© Gordon Bell

IBM RAMAC: IBM Model 350 Disk File from 1956. It weighed over a ton, contained fifty 24-inch disks, and was leased to companies for $3,200 per month. It could hold… 3.75 Megabytes. The photo, which you can see in full below, was taken by David Bennet for IBM. When we got in touch to get permission after finding it on the History in Pics Twitter (turns out you can source their images fairly easily… who knew) he corrected a factual inaccuracy that’s almost as common as the image itself: this is not a 5MB hard drive.

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Mainframe line established 1950 Mainframes Computer Industry forms with computers for reccord keeping & calculations 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mainframe

©Gordon Bell1940

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© Gordon Bell

IBM 360 mainfram model 50

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Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs of the computer industry. • In 1960s there were 8 large computer companies. The largest of them, IBM, was called Snow White and the others were called the Seven Dwarfs. These seven dwarfs were: Burroughs, NCR, Control Data Corporation, Univac, RCA, Honeywell and General Electric. • IBM and UNISYS (Univac and Burroughs merger) continue to be the dominant and secondary IT suppliers. • GE and Honeywell are not in the computer business • So what is the secret of longevity? Constantly reinventing itself and transforming company culture with the times. © Gordon Bell

IBM System \360 April 6, 1964 Converging Calculation and Record Keeping

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Supercomputer? Mainframes?: LARC





Begun in 1955 for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Delivered in 1960 Had dual processors and decimal arithmetic Employed surface-barrier transistors and core memory

Supercomputer? Mainframes?: Stretch, Harvest • IBM 7950 (HARVEST) • Delivered to NSA 1962 • Was STRETCH + 4 boxes • IBM 7951 Stream unit • IBM 7952 Core storage • IBM 7955 Tape unit • IBM 7959 I/O Exchange

• IBM 7030 (STRETCH) • Delivered to Los Alamos 1961 • Pioneered in both architecture and implementation at IBM

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Supercomputer? Mainframe? Manchester/Ferranti Atlas c1961 (One million instructions per second)

A few, large computers are needed—transistors enable larger computers 1960 Supercompuers: Transistor circuits enable larger computers limited by design & budgets 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Supercomputer

Cray Supercomputers ...

Mainframe

©Gordon Bell1940

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CDC 6600 Console c1965

First Supercomputer?

Cray-1 c1976: Supercomputer 17 Mflops Linpack

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Bell’s Law of Computer Classes Formation Every next generation of technology enables 3 evolving paths

price ≈ 1/units produced

Supercomputers, Max. design to fill increasing budgets Increase performance

Constant price

New class, new price Generationn

Generationn+1

Moore’s Law Existing class evolves at constant price Technology enables a new class & industry at lower price for new apps

Generationn+2

time

© Gordon Bell

Transistors circuits enable minicomputers 1960 Minicomputers Transistor circuits enable larger computers & small, control or minis 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Supercomputer

Cray Supercomputers ...

Mainframe Mini

©Gordon Bell1940

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DEC Transistor Logic boards and PDP-1 assembly line

IBM SMS transistor logic boards c 1960. DEC transistor logic boards c1965 for back panel wiring machine

Digital Equipment Corporation PDP-8 1965 introduction 12 bit word (1.5 bytes) 4,096 word memory 1.5 usec memory cycle time, or 300,000 ops per sec. $18,000 including Teletype ASR printer, paper tape reader and punch

© Gordon Bell

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Integrated circuit logic c1965 enabled wide spread digital systems design

100 companies started up by 1965 to build minis and by 1985

49 started up and retained autonomy 2 grew at significant rates and continue to grow 8 grew at diminished or declining rates, or found small niches 39 ceased to manufacture

10 started up and merged with larger companies 2 grew at significant rates and continue to grow 2 continued and manufacture niche products for some time 6 ceased manufacturing minicomputers in the merged division 8 existing computer companies built minicomputers 2 made successful minicomputers and grew rapidly 2 continued with diminishing success in minis 4 stopped manufacturing minicomputers 25 non-computer companies built minicomputers for Integration or special systems 1 acquired an embryonic and formed a successful division 3 continued to build and supply minicomputers for niche markets All of which subsequently disappeared as general purpose suppliers

21 discontinued building minicomputers © Gordon Bell

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Disk companies versus time

© Gordon Bell

Control and instrumentation

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VAX-11/780 c1978 32 bit super minicomputer 32 bit word VAX = virtual address extension $250,000 1-2 Mbytes Serial 3? delivered to CMU’s John Pople for Computational Chemistry As a PC.

© Gordon Bell

Packet switching using minicomputers becomes a key network infrastructure 1971-By 1980 ARPAnet reached several hundred nodes with email standards 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Supercomputer

2020

Cray Supercomputers ...

Mainframe Mini

ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web ©Gordon Bell 1940

1950

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© Gordon Bell

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ARPAnet packet switching network 1969… 1980 © Gordon Bell

Microprocessor provides universal logic for embedding control 1971 Intel's first commercial microprocessor for embeddded apps e.g. calculator emulation 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Supercomputer

Cray Supercomputers ...

Mainframe Mini ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web IC's Integrated Circuts Microprocessor (Computer on a Chip) 4-8-microprocessors Calculator ©Gordon Bell 1940

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© Gordon Bell

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1971 4004 Introduction: The beginning of the end & The end of the beginning

© Gordon Bell

Altair: One of the first Micro Kits c1975 for under $500

© Gordon Bell

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1978: Apple II, Commodore 64, Radio Shack TRS-80 © Gordon Bell

Moore’s Law: You get more. Moore transistors are just smaller 33 Years of Moore’s Law: 1.633 = 5.4 x 106 100 X per decade

• • • • • • • •

• PC c1981 $1565 ($3K useful) • • 4.77 MHz, 8088 16K-(64K)- 256KB • 1-2 Floppy (256 KB) • 12” 24 x 120 char • Keyboard interface • • 33Kt, 33 mm2

Dell Workstation c2014 $3200 3 GHz, quad core (Proc’s) 8 GB 500 GB 24” 1000 x 2000 pixels Keyboard & mouse WIMP 1.2Gt, 250-500 mm2 © Gordon Bell

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C 1982: IBM PC … vs. SUN Workstation

20-bit addressing, 8 & 16-bit data Char. display, floppy disk, keyboard

32-bit addressing, 32-bit data paths Bit-mapped display, hard disk, WIMP

© Gordon Bell

Microprocessors become useful for: home and game computers, personal computers, and workstations 1978 16-bit mcroprocessors enable personal computers for home and office 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Supercomputer

2020

Cray Supercomputers ...

Mainframe Mini IC's Integrated Circuts ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web Microprocessor (Computer on a Chip) 8- 16 - 32 - 64 bit Microprocssors>Muliiple processors Calculator Home computer >> game computer WS PC (Apple, Wintel) ©Gordon Bell1940

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Moore’s Prediction, Electronics 1965 Chips double/year till 1975 => double/18 months

© Gordon Bell

Moore’s Law: More transistors/Personal Computer 100x increase/decade since 1981 at constant $s intro

© Gordon Bell

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Moore’s Law generated more powerful computers: 4>8>16>32>64> n64-bit computers per die

© Gordon Bell

1990-3: WWW of distributed servers and desktop browser clients, a new computing platform 1990-'93 World Wide Explosion with desktop access & dist'd server computers 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Clustered Supers Supercomputer Cray Supercomputers...

Mainframe

2020

Scalables =Clusters

Mini

IC's Integrated Circuts ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web Microprocessor (Computer on a Chip) 8- 16 - 32 - 64 bit Microprocssors>Muliiple processors Calculator Home computer >> game computer WS PC (Apple, Wintel) Worldwide Web Explosion Servers- PC Clients ©Gordon Bell1940

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© Gordon Bell

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Tim Berners-Lee’s first web browser operating in December 1990

WWW access via Mosaic Browser c1993

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Sun Microsystems with SQL Web servers c1995-

© Gordon Bell

Pre-cloud Server Room

© Gordon Bell

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Amazon Web Services (AWS) is introduced in 2006 for cloud computing: Elastic compute, Simple storage, etc. Platform as a Service Infrastructure aaS … as a service Software as a Service Thing as a Service © Gordon Bell

The cloud: A Google data center

© Gordon Bell

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2.1 Mwatt Wind turbines, Australia 10-20 to power a data center

© Gordon Bell

Grand Coulee Dam 6,800 Mwatts Powers 200 data centers (3230 Wind turbines) while the wind blows

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© Gordon Bell

Generators

Substation

Evaporators

Pumps/Pipes Electrical Distribution

Chiller Tower

Battery Room Operations

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1989-2005

2007

2008

2010+

Reduced Carbon, Rightsized 1.05-1.15 PUE Faster Time to Market

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1994: Computers will All be Scalables •Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks as Platforms – upsize from desktop to world-scale computer – based on a few standard components

•Because: – Moore’s law: exponential progress – standards & commodities – stratification and competition

Platform Network

• When: Sooner than you think! – massive standardization gives massive use – economic forces are enormous CopyrightG Bell and J Gray © Gordon Bell 1996

1994: Computers will All be Scalables Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks as Platforms • upsize from desktop to world-scale computer • based on a few standard components

Because: • Moore’s law: exponential progress • standards & commodities • stratification and competition

Platform Network

When: Sooner than you think! • massive standardization gives massive use • economic forces are enormous

Copyright G Bell and J Gray 1996

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VAX Strategy 1979 … VMS Clusters 1984 big computers = interconnected minicomputers CI (Computer Interconnect) Two links at 70 Mbps Eventually Ethernet

Computing Clusters Become Supercomputers 1992World Wide Explosion with desktop access and scalable, clustetered computing 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Clustered Supers Supercomputer Cray Supercomputers...

Mainframe

Scalables =Clusters

Mini

IC's Integrated Circuts ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web Microprocessor (Computer on a Chip) 8- 16 - 32 - 64 bit Microprocssors>Muliiple processors Calculator Home computer >> game computer WS PC (Apple, Wintel) Worldwide Web Explosion Cloud servers- PC Clients ©Gordon Bell 1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

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2000

2010

2020

© Gordon Bell

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1983 Caltech Cosmic Cube 8 node prototype (‘82) & 64 node ‘83 Intel iPSC 64 Personal Supercomputer ‘85

Thinking Machines CM-5 1993 1K computers First Top500 @60 GFlops; Bell Prize winner

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LLNL Sequoia 17 Petaflops… Tops500 #1 June 2012 4 threads/core 16 cores/chip 1024 chip/rack 96 racks per system 1.5 million processors 1 GigaBytes/processor 1.6 PetaBytes primary memory 80 KWatt/rack 7.7 MWatts

© Gordon Bell

1E+09 100000000

Target

Linpack (GFLOPS) vs. Year of introductions MulticomputersBG/Q Cray Fujitsu SPARC aka Tianhe Intel clusters BlueGene

10000000 1000000 100000

BlueGene NEC ES IBM Power3

10000

Seymour Cray NWT Mono-computersIntelTMFujitsu CM5 Delta

1000 100

Cray YMP 16

10

2x per year (1000x per decade)

1

Cray XMP

0.1 Cray 1

0.01

40% per year (100x per decade)

CDC 7600

0.001

CDC 6600

0.0001

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

© Gordon Bell

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Smartphone client –Cloud service 2007 Worldwide Web of Clouds of scalable clusters serving PC and Smarthphone clients 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Clustered Supers Supercomputer Cray Supercomputers...

Mainframe

Scalables =Clusters

Mini

IC's Integrated Circuts ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web Microprocessor (Computer on a Chip) 8- 16 - 32 - 64 bit Microprocssors>Muliiple processors Calculator Home computer >> game computer WS PC (Apple, Wintel) Worldwide Web Explosion Cloud servers- PC Clients Mobile phones Second (Mobile) Web Explosion. Cloud server-SmartPhone Clients Tablet (reading device… to supplement PC) ©Gordon Bell 1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

© Gordon Bell

Cell Phone To Smartphone Computer

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U8500 used in Nokia Windows 8 phones

Cell aka Mobile >> Smart Phone evolution TV eBook GeoVector BodyMedia iPod Windows Mobile Web Browsing BlackBerry

Smart phone functionality evolves to location svcs eBook, TV accomplish every available task, thereby Pointing anywhere* Health monitor potentially replacing Multimedia player more complex computers Smartphone & PC with apps WWW. 2007: e.g tablets, PCs Email Programmable platform -PC with apps Digital Audio Player Camera addition GPS service Availability PDA Functionality SMS Service US mobile phones licensed (AMPS)

PocketPC Rio & Music svc Imaging

GPS service Palm SMS Cellular net Gameboy

handheld games 1979

Notes:

The iPhone defines the SmartPhone

1983

1992

1995

1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2002

2002

2003

2007 2010

Increasing bandwidth protocols e.g. GSM, service generations enabler not shown Audio recording, video capture, videophone, and mobile TV not shown *GPS: location lat, long, alt. 3 axis compass; 6 axis accel. © Gordon Bell

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Transition of Radio Shack to a SmartPhone reseller owned by Verizon

© Gordon Bell

iPhone aka Smartphone

iPhone

iPhone 3G

iPhone 3GS

iPhone 4

iPhone 4S

iPhone 5

iPhone 6

January 9, 2007

June 9, 2008

June 8, 2009

June 7, 2010

October 4, 2011

September 12, 2012

November 2014

Model (1st gen.) Begin

© Gordon Bell

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IBM RAMAC: IBM Model 350 Disk File from 1956. It weighed over a ton, contained fifty 24-inch disks, and was leased to companies for $3,200 per month. It could hold… 3.75 Megabytes. The photo, which you can see in full below, was taken by David Bennet for IBM. When we got in touch to get permission after finding it on the History in Pics Twitter (turns out you can source their images fairly easily… who knew) he corrected a factual inaccuracy that’s almost as common as the image itself: this is not a 5MB hard drive.

Things as a Service: IoT 2014 WWW Everything else access: IoT-- Internet of Things. 1940

1950

1960

Supercomputer

1970

1980

1990

Cray Supercomputers...

Mainframe

2000 2010 Clustered Supers

2020

Scalables =Clusters

Mini IC's

Integrated Circuts

ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web Microprocessor (Computer on a Chip) 8- 16 - 32 - 64 bit Microprocssors>Muliiple processors Calculator Home computer >> game computer WS PC (Apple, Wintel) Worldwide Web Explosion Cloud servers- PC Clients Mobile phones Second (Mobile) Web Explosion. Cloud server-SmartPhone Clients Tablet (web reading device… to supplement PC) Robots, IoT Industrial, toy, car mobiile …. Home, personal wear Internet of Things ©Gordon Bell1940

1950

1960

1970 1980 © Gordon Bell

1990

2000

2010

2020

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Internet of Things; Real IoT (Riot): EVERYTHING is Connected and has a digital identity IOT 1. The cloud aka web connecting to 2. “Thing” network infrastructure 3. Computer hosts, servers for 4. Things serving people… machines

Dust DN2510: 2.4 GHz Mote-on-Chip

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SmartMesh Wireless Mesh Network TM

SmartMesh Console

Open API

IP Network

SmartMesh >250 motes/manager Manager

Mote

Approx 100 ft indoors 100-250 kbps

Arduino, Raspberry Pi, Microsoft Gadgeteer

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© Gordon Bell

SmartThings c2012 now Samsung

Health sensing for your wrist… Dick Tracy watch to be announced

© Gordon Bell

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Body Monitoring

Bush Memex: Recording Everything we see and hear (c1945)

© Gordon Bell

Bell & Google Glass, Marvin Minsky, Steve Mann, and Bell with Autographer and Narrative lifelogging cameras … plus a sousveillance camera and pocket video “spy camera”

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Record of everything seen and heard (t, location). Record of physiological: HR, HRV, GSR, skin temp, skin moisture. Record of every step(t). Estimates of sleep, energy consumed

Narrative & Autographer time lapse photos & GPS Lifeloggers

Spy video recorder BodyMedia activity, heatflux, GSR, energy consumed

HR pickups (chest strap) Basis continuous HRM, pedometer, skin temp

Antique time piece compass, thermometer, altimeter Withings holster

Withings Pedometer, HR measure Heart beat backerupper Aka Pacemaker © Gordon Bell

$400 device, $5 app

Fitbit (pedometer)

Chest strap for HR, HRV calculation

Summary of Bell’s Law

© Gordon Bell

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Things as a Service: IoT 2014 WWW Everything else access: IoT-- Internet of Things. 1940

1950

1960

1970

Supercomputer

1980

1990

2000 2010 Clustered Supers

Cray Supercomputers...

Mainframe

2020

Scalables =Clusters

Mini IC's

Integrated Circuts

ARPAnet, Intenet, WWW, Mobile Web Microprocessor (Computer on a Chip) 8- 16 - 32 - 64 bit Microprocssors>Muliiple processors Calculator Home computer >> game computer WS PC (Apple, Wintel) Worldwide Web Explosion Cloud servers- PC Clients Mobile phones Second (Mobile) Web Explosion. Cloud server-SmartPhone Clients Tablet (web reading device… to supplement PC) Robots, IoT Industrial, toy, car mobiile …. Home, personal wear Internet of Things ©Gordon Bell 1940

1950

1960

1970

1980 © Gordon Bell

1990

2000

2010

2020

1951-2015: Bell’s Law of Computer Class Formation Technology evolution offers three next generation paths: 1. Evolve: constant price, increase performance 2. Supercomputer: maximum price that users can afford 3. New class: constant performance, decrease price 1962

price ≈ 1/units produced

1951

Mainframes 1965

Minis 1981 1978-81 1970

ARPAnet

WSs

PCs (home, game, personal computers) 1982

Internet >> 1992 WWW (Desktop cloud) 2010 1999-2007

Tablets (Mobile cloud)

SmartPhone (Mobile cloud) 2015

© Gordon Bell

Internet of Things

time

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© Gordon Bell

The classes, sans phones, 2006

log (people per computer)

Motes Mainframe Minicomputer Workstation PC Laptop PDA ???

year David Culler UC/Berkeley

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log (people per computer)

The classes, sans phones, 2006

Mainframe

Scalable computers Minicomputer InterconnectedWorkstation via IP PC Laptop PDA ???

year David Culler UC/Berkeley

© Gordon Bell

Bell’s Law – Production Volume

86

Mainframe 1 per Enterprise

10T 1T

Workstation

100G

1 per Engineer

100x smaller every decade [Nakagawa08]

10G 1G

3

Size (mm )

100M

Laptop

10M

1 per Professional

1M

mm-Scale Computing

100k 10k

Mini Computer

1k

Ubiquitous

1 per Company

100

Personal Computer

10

1 per Family

1

1 per person

Ubiquitous

Smartphone

100m 1950 ©Dennis Sylvester, U. of Michigan

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020 86

86

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© Gordon Bell

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Bell’s Law for the formation of The Birth & Death of Computer Classes Hardware technology improvements i.e. Moore’s Law for semiconductors, storage, network,…UI enable three evolutionary paths(t) for computers: 1. Evolve at constant price, increasing performance as a direct consequence of Moore’s Law 2. Supercomputers-- Spend more. Build the largest computer you can that customers can afford. 3. New Class—Constant or decreasing performance, decreasing cost by a factor O(10)X … Leads to new structures and new computer class! Class => programming platform, price, application, use, market, industry © Gordon Bell

Bell’s Law of Computer Classes Formation Every next generation of technology enables 3 evolving paths

price ≈ 1/units produced

Supercomputers, Max. design to fill increasing budgets Constant price

Increase performance

New class, new price Generationn

Generationn+1

Moore’s Law Existing class evolves at constant price Technology enables a new class & industry at lower price for new apps

Generationn+2

time

© Gordon Bell

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Bell’s Law describes the Birth and Death of Computer Classes • In 1971 everything was known to predict next 40+Yrs 1965: Moore’s Law; 1971: Intel 4004; 1971 Bell et al observation •

Generality of computers => Computers substitute for others => New classes are born; others may die

• An established computer class evolves at same price with more, Moore performance • Bell’s Law describes why new computer classes aka platforms form e.g. minis, PCs, WWW, smart phones, … and coming Internet of Things (e.g. monitoring stuff, people) – New physical technology: chip, storage, network, sensor, user interface, distribution… • Every 3 technology generations (10 x and 10 years) enable a new class • Up to a factor of 10 less expensive => 10x increase in use(rs) • Occasionally, a new class is based on introducing a unique function e.g. heart monitor

– New creator-builders and secondary industries when apps form – New platform or programming environment i.e. identifiable new class – New applications => new use(rs) => new market => new industry • Industries build to over 100 suppliers and then evolved to a few e.g. 2-3 suppliers © Gordon Bell

Mainframe

Mini-computer 2-200K

Super-computer 4-400M

200-4,000K

Personal Computer 300-6000

When

1951-present 1964 S/(360)

1965-1985

1961-1993 1983-present

1978 PC (1981) -

Industry

IBM, UNISYS

DEC > HP, IBM, Oracle

CDC, Cray > Cray, IBM, HP, China, Fujitsu, NEC

Apple, Intel, Microsoft, Dell, Lenovo, HP..

Principle Fcn

Data storage, general comp.

Control, comm., small mainframe

Calculation

Human int’fc

Use, UI

Batch & terminal. Network

Terminal

Centers for scientific computing

Program environment

IBM O/S’s

Proprietary OS > UNIX dialects

Mono-memory> Multicomputer Linux, MPI

Network

Special terminals

Comm. line

Substitution

Multi’s, microCs clusters

Enabling

Transistor ’60 IC(MSI LSI) ’65

How sold

Direct

Direct, OEM, Sys. Integrate

1983 Multi 1993 Cluster

WWW PC Browser Access

WWW

SmartPhone Browser

Internet of Things

1990 WWW – 1993 Mosaic

2007-

2015-

Corp. server> IasS, PaaS, SaaS

Apple, Android, Nokia, Samsung …

EVERYONE eg wearable

Client-Server computing via Clusters

Comm., IoT UI,

Networks enabled

WIMP

Browser on a PC or phone

Direct finger control>pen

Phone or process

Apple OS, Windows

HTML, Java, etc.

Apple OS Android(Unix)

Agent for a “thing”

Ethernet LAN Single computer >> Clusters

Scalable computers

Scalable performance for HPC and Cloud (WWW)

Ethernet…

Internet

Netbooks, Tablets, SmartPhone

Wireless Sensor Nets Personal computers

Microproc ‘81 display floppy… LAN Direct

© Gordon Bell

Direct, stores distributor

© Gordon Bell

Web service industry

Telecom, store app

“thing” manufacture

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The goal of this presentation is to present a view (theory) of why and how a dozen different kinds of computers i.e. computer classes have formed industries (1951 through 2015) 1. Hardware technology generations enable new classes: vacuum tubes (1951), discrete transistor circuits(1959), integrated circuits (1966), and an evolving microprocessor 4 (1971) > 8 > 16 (1978) > 32 (1982) > 64 (1995) > multiple core-multiple thread 64 bits (2005). 2. A new class establishes a well-defined computing platform (environment) based on novel processor, memory, networking, and transducter technology i.e. chips, storage, sensors, user interface, and network. 3. A class has a well defined environment for writing and hosting application programs. 4. A secondary industry forms around a class that creates application programs for end use. 5. A new class enables new applications, new use, and new users. 6. A new class establishes a new industry or secondary industries 7. A new class is marked by one or two entrants or first movers followed by a plethora of followers. Depending on the class e.g. minis or a component e.g. disk memories 10,…100s of companies follow. Over time, a class or industry segment evolved to a few suppliers. 8. The general nature of computers allows one kind of computer to substitute for another. Thus, applications on one class may migrate to another, making a class un-economical © Gordon Bell

End

© Gordon Bell

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