to the following: Dr. J. M. Meeuwis of the Rand Afrikaans University, my supervisor, for her ... planning and management, the study will investigate the number of tourists visiting the ...... Field guide of mammals in the Kruger National Park. Cape Town: Struik. ... Smith, S. L. J. 1989: Tourism Analysis: a handbook. New York: ...
Temporal and spatial variations of tourists in the Kruger National Park. by Kevin Frank Mearns Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree
Magister Scientiae in
Geography and Environmental Management in the
Faculty of Science at the
Rand Afrikaans University
Supervisor: Dr. J. M. Meeuwis Co-supervisor: Dr. P. J. Wolfaardt January 1997
11
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to extend a word of thanks and appreciation to all the people and institutions who contributed towards the successful completion of this study. A special word of thanks to the following:
Dr. J. M. Meeuwis of the Rand Afrikaans University, my supervisor, for her assistance, encouragement and guidance. Dr. P. J. Wolfaardt of the Rand Afrikaans University, my associate supervisor, for his guidance and continual motivation. Mr. G. Erasmus of the National Parks Board, for his assistance as well as the arrangement of accommodation. Prof 1.A. Bennet, of the Rand Afrikaans University (Department of Business Management) for his constructive conversation as well as access to his unpublished work. Prof. P. J. Nieuwenhuizen, of the Rand Afrikaans University (Economics Department) for his insight as well as the use of his published literature. Prof. P. S. Hattingh, of Pretoria University, (Geography Department) for his advice. The Foundation for Research and Development
for their financial support.
My Family for their help, patience and encouragement.
111
I would like to thank the following institutions for supplying the data necessary for this study.
National Parks Board, Visitor Services, Skukuza National Parks Board, Head Office, Pretoria. Computer Centre for Water Research (CCWR), Pietermaritzburg. The Weather Bureau, Department of Transport, Pretoria. The Central Statistical Service (CSS), Pretoria. The Centre for Race Relations (CRR), Johannesburg. The Centre for Ecotourism, University of Pretoria, Pretoria. SATOUR, Head Office, Pretoria.
iv
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Tourism in the Kruger National Park is closely linked to nature conservation. Tourism being the revenue earner and conservation the resource provider; this results in a mutually beneficial symbiosis. This finely tuned interdependence between tourism and conservation should be properly managed to ensure that tourism does not become a self-destructive process, destroying the very resources on which it is based. Mounting pressure from central government is forcing the National Parks Board to become financially independent of State grants. Tourism provides the most viable solution towards achieving financial independence. All the national parks in South Africa will therefore have to make a concerted effort to accommodate and attract more tourists. The Kruger National Park, being the largest national park (1 948 528 hectares), will have to make a major contribution towards financial independence. In order to achieve this goal, tourism in this Park will have to be planned and managed more effectively. It is within this context that this study was initiated. In order to facilitate future tourism planning and management, the study will investigate the number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park as well as the occupation of accommodation by tourists. These results will in turn be used to investigate the tourist carrying capacity of the Park and to make suggestions regarding the Park's tourism management policies.
RESEARCH METHOD As a result of the primarily descriptive nature of the investigation relating to the number of tourists visiting the Park as well as the occupation of accommodation by tourists, the research will include diagrammatic and cartographic representations of the data. In order to explain the temporal and spatial variations of the tourists in the Kruger National Park, a correlation and regression analysis was used in conjunction with non-tourist variables (which include both socio-economic and physical variables).
The results obtained in the above investigation were used to study the physical and perceptual tourist carrying capacity. Physical tourist carrying capacity was researched by indicating the percentage occupation of available accommodation and available day visitor quota. As a result of the its subjective nature, the balance between the costs and benefits associated with gaining a holiday experience was used in conjunction with the number of visitors to the Park in order to determine the perceptual tourist carrying capacity. 3.
RESULTS
The number of visitors to the Park as well as the occupation of accommodation by tourists both indicated that large temporal and spatial variations exist. The temporal variations in tourist data were best explained by school holidays. An obvious relationship exists between school holidays and the number of visitors to the Park. The spatial variation was best explained by distance from the PWV and rainfall. The distance from the PWV (now Gauteng Province) indicates the strong influence of this region as a source area for tourists to the Park. Rainfall in the Park influences the type of vegetation, which in turn influences the distribution and population densities of animals which are sought after by tourists. With regard to the tourist carrying capacity, the results showed that the physical tourist carrying capacity is utilised below the optimum levels. More tourists can therefore be accommodated, particularly during non-school holiday periods. With reference to the perceptual tourist carrying capacity, it was found that it has been reached. The most important reason for this is the higher tariffs that are being charged.
vi
OPSOMMING
DOELSTELLING Toerisme in die Kruger Nasionale Wildtuin is nou gekoppel aan natuurbewaring. Toerisme is die inkomste-verdiener en bewaring die hulpbronverskaffer, wat lei tot 'n onderlinge wedersydse voordelige simbiose. Hierdie sensitiewe interafhanklikheid tussen toerisme en bewaring moet behoorlik bestuur word om te verseker dat toerisme nie 'n self vernietigende proses word, deur die hulpbronne waarvan dit afhanklik is, te vernietig nie. Toenemende druk deur die sentrale regering is besig om die Nasionale Parkeraad te forseer om finansieel onafhanklik van Staattoekennings te word. Toerisme verskaf die beste oplossing om finansieel onafhanklik te word. Al die nasionale parke sal 'n doelbewuste poging moet aanwend om meer toeriste te lok en te akkommodeer. Die Kruger Nasionale Wildtuin, wat die grootste nasionale park is (1 948 528 hektaar), sal 'n vername bydrae tot finansieele onafhanklikheid moet maak. Toerisme in hierdie Park sal dus meer doeltreffend beplan en bestuur moet word. Dit is binne hierdie konteks dat die studie onderneem is.
Om toekomstige toerisme
beplanning en bestuur te fasiliteer, ondersoek hierdie studie die aantal toeriste sowel as die benutting van akkommodasie deur toeriste binne die Kruger Nasionale Wildtuin. Hierdie resultate sal op hulle beurt benut word om die toeriste-drakapasiteit te ondersoek en om voorstelle met betrekking tot die Park se toerisme-bestuursbeleid te maak.
NAVORSINGSMETODE As gevolg van die primer beskrywende aard van die ondersoek betreffende die aantal toeriste en die benutting van akkommodasie, sluit die navorsing diagrammatiese en kartografiese voorstellings van die data in. Die tyd-ruimtelike wisselings is met behulp van 'n korrelasieen regressie- analise met inagnemig van nie-toeriste veranderlikes (wat sosio-ekonomiese en fisiese veranderlikes insluit) verklaar.
vii Die resultate wat verkry is, is benut om die fisiese en die perseptuele toeriste-drakapasiteit te ondersoek. Die fisiese toeriste-drakapasiteit is met behulp van die persentasie benutting van beskikbare aldcommodasie en beskikbare dagbesoeker-kwota, nagevors. As gevolg van die subjektiewe aard van die perseptuele toeriste-drakapasiteit, is die balans tussen die koste en voordele in verband met 'n besoek, met inagneming van die aantal toeriste na die Park, gebruik om dit te bepaal.
3. RESULTATE Beide die aantal toeriste en die benutting van akkommodasie deur toeriste in die Park bewys dat groot variasies in tyd en ruimte bestaan. Die variasies oor tyd van toeriste-data was bes deur skoolvakansies verduidelik.
'n
Vanselfsprekende verbindtenis tussen skoolvakansies en die aantal toeriste bestaan. Die ruimtelike variasies in toeriste-data word die beste deur afstand vanaf die PWV en reenval verklaar. Die afstand vanaf die PWV (nou Gauteng Provinsie) dui op die sterk invloed van die PWV-gebied as 'n brongebied vir toeriste na die Kruger Wildtuin. Reenval in die Wildtuin beinvloed die tipe plantegroei, wat op sy beurt die verbreiding en digtheid van die diere populasie beinvloed, wat deur die besoeker gesoek word. Die fisiese toeriste-drakapasiteit word onder die optimale vlakke benut. Meer toeriste kan dus geakkommodeer word, veral gedurende nie-skoolvakansie tye. Die perseptuele toeristedrakapasiteit is reeds bereik. Die belangrikste rede hiervoor is die hoer tariewe wat gehef word.
viii
CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION
2
1.2 TOURISM IN SOUTH AFRICA
4
1.3 THE CONCEPT OF TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
6
1.4 MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
10
1.5 THE STUDY AREA 1.5.1 Location 1.5.2 Historical background 1.5.3 The main physical (natural) characteristics 1.5.4 Tourist facilities
11 11 12 13 16
1.6 RESEARCH MODEL
19
CHAPTER 2: DATA COLLECTION
21
2.1 INTRODUCTION
22
2.2 TOURIST DATA 2.2.1 Tourists visiting the Kruger National Park 2.2.2 Occupation of accommodation in the Kruger National Park 2.2.3 Shortcomings of the data
22 23 24 24
2.3 NON-TOURIST DATA 2.3.1 Socio-economic data 2.3.2 Physical variables
26 26 26
CHAPTER 3: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION OF TOURISTS
31
3.1 INTRODUCTION
32
3.2 TOURISTS VISITING THE KRUGER NATIONAL PARK
32
ix 3.3 THE OCCUPATION OF ACCOMMODATION IN THE KRUGER NATIONAL PARK 3.3.1 Accommodation available 3.3.2 Accommodation occupied 3.3.3 Percentage occupation of available accommodation
38 38 39 43
3.4 EXPLANATION OF THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATIONS IN TOURIST DATA 3.4.1 Explanation of the temporal variation in tourist data 3.4.2 Explanation of the spatial variation in tourist data
47 48 55
3.5 CONCLUSION
59
CHAPTER 4: TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
60
4.1 INTRODUCTION
61
4.2 THE PHYSICAL TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY 4.2.1 The percentage occupation of available but accommodation 4.2.2 The percentage occupation of available campsite accommodation 4.2.3 The percentage utilization of available day visitor quotas
61 61 63 63
4.3 THE PERCEPTUAL TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY 4.3.1 Price elasticity of demand 4.3.2 Income obtained per visitor
65 67 68
4.4 NUMERIC LIMITS OF TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
69
4.5 CONCLUSION
71
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS
72
5.1 INTRODUCTION 5.1.1 The number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park 5.1.2 The occupation of accommodation in the Kruger National Park 5.1.3 Tourist carrying capacity
73 73 75 76
5.2 SUGGESTIONS
77
5.3 CONCLUDING REMARKS
81
LIST OF REFERENCES
83
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1
The location of National Parks in South Africa.
2
Figure 1.2
Overseas visitors to South Africa between 1973 and 1993.
4
Figure 1.3
Income generated annually through tourism between 1983 and 1993.
5
Figure 1.4
The location of the Kruger National Park.
12
Figure 1.5
The average annual rainfall of the Kruger National Park (Gertenbach, 1980).
14
The location of entry points (gates and Skukuza airport) and tourist camps in the Kruger National Park.
16
Figure 1.7
Flow diagram indicating research process.
20
Figure 2.1
Average minimum and maximum temperatures (°C) for the study period (April 1988 to March 1994).
28
Average annual rainfall (mm) for the study period (April 1988 to March 1994).
29
Figure 2.3
Distance (kin) from the PWV.
30
Figure 3.1
Annual number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park between 1968 and 1993.
32
Average weekly number of visitors to the Kruger National Park per year (between April 1988 and March 1994).
33
The percentage number of tourists visiting the Park according to points of entry.
37
Available accommodation (huts and beds) per week in the Kruger National Park from April 1989 to March 1994.
39
The average weekly number of huts occupied per year (between April 1988 and March 1994).
40
The average weekly number of beds occupied per year (between April 1988 and March 1994).
41
Figure 1.6
Figure 2.2
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.3
Figure 3.4
Figure 3.5
Figure 3.6
xi The average weekly number of campsites occupied per year (between April 1989 and March 1994).
42
The average weekly number of camping beds occupied per year (between April 1988 and March 1994).
42
The average weekly percentage but occupation per year (between April 1989 and March 1994).
43
The average weekly bed occupation percentage per year (between April 1989 and March 1994).
44
The average percentage but occupation (between April 1989 and March 1994).
45
The average percentage bed occupation (between April 1989 and March 1994).
46
The actual number of weekly visitors to the Kruger National Park between April 1988 and March 1994.
48
Deaths resulting from political violence in South Africa between April 1988 and March 1994.
49
Figure 3.15
The inflation rate in South Africa between April 1988 and March 1994.
50
Figure 3.16
Comparison of tariffs in the Kruger National Park for but and campsite accommodation between April 1988 and March 1994.
51
Figure 3.17
Non-school days per week between April 1988 and March 1994.
52
Figure 3.18
The regression line indicating the relationship between Transvaal school holidays (non-school days per week) and number of visitors to the Park.
54
The regression line indicating the relationship between average annual rainfall and average percentage bed occupation.
57
The regression line indicating the relationship between distance from the PWV and the average percentage bed occupation.
58
Figure 4.1
Percentage occupation of available campsite accommodation.
63
Figure 4.2
The average percentage of day visitor quota filled.
64
Figure 4.3
The cost-benefit approach.
66
Figure 3.7
Figure 3.8
Figure 3.9
Figure 3.10 Figure 3.11 Figure 3.12 Figure 3.13 Figure 3.14
Figure 3.19
Figure 3.20
.
xii
LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1
Annual number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park.
23
Table 2.2
Available accommodation as at March 1994.
25
Table 2.3
Data for the explanation of the temporal variation in tourist data.
27
Table 3.1
The results of the correlation analysis between the number of visitors to the Park and socio-economic variables.
52
The results of the correlation analysis between the average percentage bed occupation and physical variables.
56
Huts available and occupied annually between April 1989 and March 1994.
62
Beds available and occupied annually between April 1989 and March 1994.
62
Table 4.3
Day visitor quota.
64
Table 4.4
Price elasticity of tariffs.
67
Table 4.5
Income obtained per visitor.
68
Table 4.6
American standards of capacity according to Burkert and Medlik (1981, 247).
70
Average daily vehicle density in the Kruger National Park.
70
Table 3.2
Table 4.1
Table 4.2
Table 4.7
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
1.1 INTRODUCTION
South Africa is well endowed with a complex system of 15 national parks as well as many other provincial and private game and nature reserves. As a direct result a substantial number of tourists visit South Africa every year. Annually the national parks (Figure 1.1) attract approximately one million visitors, generating over 8100 million in income. Tourism and conservation are closely associated; tourism being the revenue earner, while conservation is the resource provider. This results in a mutually beneficial symbiosis. This finely tuned interdependence should be properly managed to ensure that tourism does not become a selfdestructive process destroying the very resources on which it is based. Tourism is thus seen as a crucial part of the national parks.
MOZAMBIQUE
'30°E ZIMBABWE
'25°E
20°E BOTSWANA NAMIBIA
25°S
Northern
EhraggBigit, 1. Kruger 3. Kalahari Richtareveld AugrabieS 3. Marikal ■ Golden Cats Vaaltos 9. Mast Coast Tanks Karoo Karoo Mountain Sabra A.A. Taitsikanno wilderwass 13. Sontabok
5 25°S Mpumalanga
2 North West
Gauteng SWAZIL
4
3
7
6
Free State
Kwazulu-Natal LESOTHO
30°S
30°S .
Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
10
N 8
11
9 Western Cape 14
13
12 0
15 20°E
Figure 1.1
200Ion
vmss=swwa=a
.25°E
The location of National Parks in South Africa.
30°E
3 National parks can be defined in various ways. According to Fuggle and Rabie (1992, 693) they are large conservation areas, generally containing a range of functions from scientific research and wilderness environments to recreation and tourism facilities. Alternatively Turk (1989, 137) states that a national park is an area of land that is set aside in its natural, untouched state to be enjoyed by all in perpetuity. However, an inherent conflict exists between the concepts 'untouched' and 'enjoyed by all'. This is illustrated by Stankey (1994, 1) when he states, "as people seek natural settings, their presence, even inadvertently leads to change". This conflict makes it imperative that some form of effective management must take place to ensure that the national parks are conserved for future generations. Traditionally the national parks are funded by the state, but it is conceivable that future State expenditure will be channelled into community-oriented projects and for this reason, national parks should become self-sufficient in the near future (Dearlove, 1993). Because tourism has the potential to generate much needed revenue, it provides the most viable solution for the national parks to achieve financial independence (Bristowe, 1992). Financial independence can only be attained if all the national parks in South Africa make a concerted effort to promote tourism and in so doing earn much needed revenue. The Kruger National Park, is the largest (1 948 528 hectares) of the national parks, and as such will have to make a major contribution towards financial independence not only for itself but for all the other national parks as well. The Kruger National Park will therefore have to subsidise less economically viable national parks of smaller size or more remote location. If this is to be achieved it is of paramount importance that tourism in the Kruger National Park as well as all the other Parks be managed effectively from both an environmental and financial perspective. In order to facilitate future tourism planning, as well as effective management within the Kruger National Park, it is essential that a detailed understanding of the patterns of use of resources and facilities by tourists be undertaken. However, before a detailed investigation into tourism within the Kruger National Park is undertaken, a brief overview of tourism in South Africa is essential.
4 1.2 TOURISM IN SOUTH AFRICA. According to the World Tourism Organisation (1993), South Africa secures only 0,66 % of the world tourist market. This is in spite of the fact that South Africa has some of the best natural scenery, spectacular game reserves and wildlife, majestic mountain landscapes, beaches and various ethnic attractions in the world. Although South Africa only serves a small percentage of the international tourism market, overseas visitors to South Africa have shown a definite upward tendency over the last eight years (Figure 1.2).
Overseas Visitors (Thousands)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
II
11111141111111.111111 [11111111111111111111 111111111111111111111 111111111111111111111 973 1975 1977
1979 1981 1983 1985
1987 1989 1991 1993
Years Figure 1.2 Overseas visitors to South Africa between 1973 and 1993. The overall tendency, however, is one of fluctuation which is characterised by two major slumps during 1977 and 1986. These slumps may be attributed to political unrest in 1976 and 1985/86. Nevertheless, tourism makes an important contribution to the economy. This economic contribution is two-fold: Firstly, foreign tourists generate considerable foreign exchange. According to Fabricius (1994, 1), "South Africa earns approximately R6 billion per annum in foreign exchange from tourism, making it South Africa's fourth largest exchange earner". Secondly, it also provides opportunities for local job creation. Xcel (1991, 2.2.) states that, "for every 11 tourists who visit this country one job opportunity is created".
5 The growth in income generated through both the foreign and domestic sectors of the South African tourism industry are indicated in Figure 1.3.
Generated Income (Billion Rand)
9
1983 984 985 1988 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Years Figure 1.3 Income generated annually through tourism between 1983 and 1993. From Figure 1.3 it can be seen that between 1983 and 1985 a period of relatively slow growth existed. During 1986 no growth occurred which corresponds to the slump in overseas visitors as indicated on Figure 1.2. After 1986 a faster and more sustained rate of growth was experienced and this has continued up to 1993. This also corresponds to an overall increase in the number of overseas visitors as indicated on Figure 1.2. According to Fabricius (1994, 1), it is expected that a growth of approximately R3 billion in foreign exchange will be generated by overseas tourists over the next two to three years. This assumption is based on international growth trends in the tourist industry. It is important to note that the income generated by domestic tourists also shows substantial growth (Figure 1.3). The above discussion proves that the South African tourist industry is showing growth and that it plays a vital part in the South African economy. It is therefore essential that the National Parks Board actively promotes both domestic and foreign tourism and in so doing attains financial independence. This will in turn empower the National Parks Board to encourage the conservation of the environment and to promote its sustainable development.
6 In order to achieve this, considerable planning and management of existing and new developments is absolutely necessary and a very important facet of this is the determination of the tourist carrying capacity of a national park. As the concept of carrying capacity has a variety of meanings, it is essential for the purpose of this study to discuss and define the main ideas associated with this concept and to apply them to tourism.
1.3 THE CONCEPT OF TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
In order to understand the concept of carrying capacity with regard to tourism it is necessary firstly to understand the meaning of certain associated terminology and secondly, to comprehend the historic origins of the concept.
Tourism may be defined as, "the relationships and phenomena arising out of the journeys or temporary stays of people travelling primarily for leisure or recreational purposes" (Pearce, 1987, 1). Tourism, is primarily a twentieth century phenomenon, which has been facilitated by the increased knowledge of the world and it's regions, advances in transportation technology and a modern industrialised lifestyle which affords both the time and money necessary for the enjoyment of travel. The above-mentioned factors have led to increasing levels of tourism, many of which have focused on the natural environment and wildlife. This has led to the increased utilization of natural resources. Closely linked to this is the concept of sustainability. Cater (1993, 88) states that "unless tourism becomes sustainable, it is in danger of being a self-destructive process". Sustainability is defined by the International Chamber of Commerce (1991, 1) as "meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". This in effect means that natural resources may be repeatedly used provided that they are not damaged to such an extent that they cannot return to their original natural state and in fact, should be conserved as far as possible for future generations as well. Concerted efforts should be made to ensure that the environment is not over-utilized or overexploited beyond its carrying capacity (Bennet, 1995).
7 In order to understand the concept of carrying capacity with regard to tourism, it is necessary to examine the historic origins of this concept; the foundations of which can be traced back to the field of wildlife management. In this respect the term refers to "the maximum number of animals of a particular specie that can be supported by a given area on a sustainable basis" (Eltringham, 1979, 88). Given such a definition and in view of the fact that recreational and natural areas were being increasingly used, biologically trained tourist managers began to realize that the carrying capacity concept could perhaps be applied to tourism. Carrying capacity was seen as a suitable framework within which the ecological impacts of increased tourist numbers on the environment could be evaluated. Sumner (1942) expressed the need to keep tourist numbers, "within the carrying capacity or recreational saturation point." It was believed that this concept would determine the optimum number of people that could make use of an area before unacceptable ecological impacts occurred. There would thus be a definite reason for establishing limits on tourist numbers (Stankey and Mc Cool, 1989). The carrying capacity concept was broadened by Wagner (1964) to include a social or perceptual component in addition to an ecological one. This paved the way for the introduction of the concept of tourist carrying capacity. Wagner (1964) also argued that tourist carrying capacity was not determined only in terms of ecology but also had to give serious consideration to human values as well. Tourist carrying capacity, is therefore defined as "the maximum number of people who can use a site without an unacceptable alteration in the physical environment and without an unacceptable decline in the quality of the experience gained by visitors"
(Mathieson and Wall, 1993, 21). The Development Bank of Southern Africa (1991, 5) offers a slightly different perspective when defining tourist carrying capacity as, "the limit of tourist activity beyond which facilities become saturated, ecosystems threatened, visitor enjoyment diminished and costs incurred exceed benefits".
Although these
definitions vary slightly, tourist carrying capacity is nevertheless considered by many authors to be an important tool that facilitates both tourism planning and management (Schoeman, 1988; Ministry for Administration and Tourism, 1992; Thomas, 1994 and Hugo, 1994).
8 Four types of tourist carrying capacity have been identified (Pearce, 1981; Fouche and Esterhysen, 1987 and Bennett, 1995): Physical carrying capacity which refers to the ability of an attraction (or destination)
to cater for and accommodate tourists. There is a finite limit on the number of tourists that can be accommodated at any given time; for example the number of beds available. Perceptual carrying capacity refers to the degree of congestion which tourists will
tolerate before a site begins to lose its appeal. Alternatively, it suggests the lowest degree of enjoyment tourists are prepared to accept before they start seeking alternative sites or destinations. It therefore relates directly to the quality of the recreational experience. According to Stankey and McCool (1989) the concept of perceptual carrying capacity has become intimately linked with the notion of crowding. Crowding is, however, related to human perceptions, which in turn are influenced by many factors such as: The activity practised. Lucas (1964) found that perceptions of crowding relate directly to the activity practised. For example canoeists and motor boat enthusiasts would perceive crowding differently. A smaller number of motorboats are needed to create a perception of overcrowding than canoeists. Unacceptable behaviour.
Stankey (1980) states that much of what is
defined as crowding stems from contact with others behaving unacceptably in relation to the relevant activity and setting. Stankey gives the clear example of acceptable behaviour while camping in a wilderness area when he states that camping should take place 'out of sight and sound' from others. Evidence of previous presence of tourists.
Gramann (1982) suggests that
crowding does not only refer to the presence of others, but also to evidence of their previous presence (eg. litter and physical impacts on vegetation). Number of tourists.
In a major review of tourist carrying capacity
literature, Graefe et al (1984) analysed the results of over 50 studies and found a positive, significant relationship between the reported number of contacts with visitors and perceived crowding. As tourist numbers or tourist arrivals increased, tourists were more likely to report the situation as being crowded.
9 Ecological carrying capacity is the ability of a region to absorb tourists without destroying the balance of nature, for example through high levels of pollution. Economic carrying capacity relates directly to economic viability; if a project is not viable it exceeds the economic tourist carrying capacity. A tourist development may be economically viable and desirable, but ecologically damaging, thereby exceeding the ecological carrying capacity. However, the tourist development may generate sufficient funds to have the ecological impacts corrected, thereby no longer exceeding the ecological carrying capacity (O'Reilly, 1991). Now that the background to tourist carrying capacity has been discussed in general, it is important to define exactly what tourist carrying capacity means in terms of this specific study. Therefore in terms of this study, tourist carrying capacity is defined as the maximum number of tourists that can enter the Kruger National Park before the saturation point of facilities is reached or an unacceptable decline in visitor enjoyment is experienced. In the foregoing general discussion it was mentioned that tourist carrying capacity can be subdivided in terms of 4 factors (physical, perceptual, ecological and economic) but for the purpose of this study it will be examined only in terms of two important interrelated aspects, namely physical and perceptual". Tourist carrying capacity can therefore be summed up as:
TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY: the maximum number of tourists that can enter the park before
the saturation point of facilities is reached or ie. Physical carrying capacity
an unacceptable decline in visitor enjoyment is experienced ie. Perceptual carrying capacity
The reason for investigating only two of the four factors was because of a lack of suitable and appropriate data.
10
It is important to note, however, that the investigation of the tourist carrying capacity will not reveal numeric limits but will rather identify critical thresholds that have to be managed effectively. In the past "as far as the measurement of carrying capacity is concerned, capacities as a whole have been difficult to quantify. Even if capacity cannot be measured absolutely, statistical methods could be set up to examine relative changes year-on-year" (O'Reilly, 1991, 306).
1.4 MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The primary objective of the study is to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of tourists in the Kruger National Park. This should lead to a better understanding of the importance of the Kruger National Park as a tourist destination, as well as how the facilities in the park are used by the visitors. The temporal and spatial variation of tourists will be researched by investigating the following: The number of tourists visiting the park, which will give an indication of the total
number of tourists visiting the park, as well as annual and weekly average variations. The occupation of accommodation in the park, which will give an indication of the
amount and type of the accommodation that is available. A determination of the average total and percentage of accommodation actually used by the tourists will also be undertaken.
The results obtained from researching the above-mentioned primary objective, will provide input data for the investigation of a secondary but equally important objective, namely tourist
11
carrying capacity as defined for the purpose of this study (see p. 9). In this respect it is necessary to undertake an investigation of two relevant facets of tourist carrying capacity: • The physical tourist carrying capacity, which refers directly to the saturation point and utilization of accommodation facilities in the Kruger National Park and includes the number of daily visitors allowed into the park. The perceptual tourist carrying capacity, which relates to the level of visitor enjoyment of available facilities in the park. As the number of visitors to the park may be largely determined by the cost associated with a visit, this facet will also be taken into consideration. The results obtained from the investigation of both the primary and secondary objectives should provide important results that may facilitate effective future tourism planning and management in the Kruger National Park.
1.5 THE STUDY AREA
The natural beauty of the Kruger National Park and the fact that it is a favourite local holiday venue and probably one of South Africa's major international drawcards as far as tourists are concerned, are reasons for the selection of this specific study area. 1.5.1 Location
The Kruger National Park (Figure 1.4) is situated along the upper reaches of the Mozambique coastal plain, between 22°25' and 25°32'S latitude and 30°50' and 32°02'E longitude. The Park comprises 1 948 528 hectares of savanna and bush country in the eastern parts of both the Northern and Mpumalanga provinces of the Republic of South Africa.
12
I
K.N.P. Main Roads Rivers
'30°E ZIMBABWE MOZAMBIQUE
BOTSWANA
North West Indian Ocean
N Free State 0
50
100km
Kwazulu-Natal
INIMIt=1MIMe=1
,30°E
Figure 1.4
The location of the Kruger National Park.
This area is bordered by the Crocodile River in the south, the Limpopo River in the north (forming the border with Zimbabwe), the Lebombo mountains in the east (forming the border with Mozambique) and a manmade boundary in the west. The Park has an elongated shape and stretches approximately 320 km from north to south and has a maximum east-west width of about 85 kilometres. 1.5.2 Historical background Paul Kruger, president of the ZAR (Zuid Afrikaanse Republiek), realised that Africa's once vast game herds were rapidly dwindling. As a result, a large tract of land between the Crocodile and Sabie Rivers (Figure 1.4) was proclaimed as the Government Game Reserve in 1898. After reproclamation following the Anglo41oer War (1899-1902), this area was renamed the Sabi Game Reserve and was extended from the Crocodile to the Olifants River (Figure 1.4). In 1903 the Shingwedzi Game Reserve was also proclaimed and encompassed a vast tract of land between the Letaba and Limpopo Rivers. Subsequently in May 1926,the
13 South African Parliament passed the National Parks Act which led to the consolidation of the Sabi and Shingwedzi Reserves together with the wedge of land (between the Olifants and Letaba Rivers) that separated them. Thus the Kruger National Park, which was named in honour of President Paul Kruger, came into being (Joubert, 1986). The Kruger National Park has a number of important features which can be sub-divided into physical (natural) characteristics and tourist facilities. These will now be discussed separately.
1.5.3 The main physical (natural) characteristics
The physical characteristics of an area assist in promoting it as a tourist attraction by providing the visitor with a variety of features to appreciate. According to Mathieson and Wall (1993) the natural environment is one of the basic resources of tourism, without which tourism would be limited. An area with abundant plant and animal life, sunny climate and attractive scenery often becomes a prime tourist destination. The Kruger National Park bears testimony to this. "Today the Kruger National Park must certainly be considered one of the best national parks of the world. This can primarily be ascribed to its natural characteristics" (Joubert, 1986, 4 ). The natural characteristics include the following: a) Drainage and relief
The Kruger National Park is drained from west to east by two major river systems, the nKomati System in the south and the Limpopo System in the north. The Park is dissected by four perennial rivers from south to north. They are the Sabie, the Olifants, the Letaba and the Levuvhu (Figure 1.4). Several major tributaries of these rivers also flow through the Park into the Indian Ocean. The riverine bush provides pleasant shade underneath the evergreen trees lining all major riverbanks. Other natural water resources include pools, springs and pans. The relief of the Kruger National Park is generally flat with gently undulating plains, with occasional rocky outcrops of more resistant granite. The height above sea-level varies from 839 m in the south to 442 m in the north, while the central part of the Park is about 260 m in altitude. The height above sea-level decreases from west to east until reaching the foothills of the Lebombo Mountains in the extreme east (Fourie and De Graaff, 1992). Vantage points have been erected where both the drainage and relief provide ideal spots from which to view game.
14 b) Climate Climatic conditions in the Kruger National Park make an important contribution towards the popularity of the Park as a holiday destination. i) Rainfall The rainy season starts in September/October, peaks in January/February and lasts until March/April, followed by a period of little or no rainfall. Eighty percent of the precipitation occurs in the form of quick thunder showers and is very erratic. The precipitation decreases from south to north. In the south, the annual rainfall is approximately 760 mm. Further north, in the central sections there is a noticeable drop in the annual rainfall to approximately 540 mm. In the north-western corner of the park the rainfall again increases to 640 mm per annum, whilst in the extreme north, it may be as low as 210 mm (Venter and Gertenbach, 1986). This variation in rainfall is clearly indicated in Figure 1.5.
Figure 1.5 The average annual rainfall of the Kruger National Park (Gertenbach, 1980).
15 Rainfall plays an important role in attracting visitors to the Kruger National Park. During hot summer periods rain provides a pleasant relief from the heat. The rain also promotes the growth of attractive green vegetation. In winter, however, the lack of rain also encourages visitors to the park as animals are more easily visible in the leafless vegetation and animals tend to congregate around water points making game-viewing easier. ii) Temperature
Temperatures attract visitors during winter as the days are generally warm (average daily maximum 23° C and average daily minimum 8° C) without being extremely hot. In summer, however, extremely hot temperatures (average daily maximum 30° C and average daily minimum 18° C), especially in the northern most parts of the park, may act as a deterrent to visitors (Fourie and De Graaff, 1992).
c) Plant and animal diversity
The Kruger National Park has one of the largest varieties and widest diversities of plant and animal life in any national park worldwide. Botanically, some 1 968 species of plants have been recorded, a figure which includes 457 species of trees and shrubs, 235 grasses, 27 ferns, 20 aloes and 1 213 species of forbes (Venter and Gertenbach, 1986). This botanical diversity is also manifested in the large variety of structural vegetation types ranging from dense forest to open, shrubby grassland. The large variety of vegetation types in the park create a haven for wild animals, which includes 147 species of mammals, more than 507 species of birds, 114 species of reptiles, 33 species of amphibians and 49 species of fish. More than 700 species of invertebrate organisms have also been recorded. This figure excludes insects, of which 227 species of butterfly alone have been found in the park. The Park is, however, best known for its variety of large mammals, consisting of 23 species of herbivores and 6 carnivores (Kloppers and Van Son, 1989 and Rautenbach et al, 1993).
16 1.5.4 Tourist facilities Tourists may enter the park through nine entry points (Figure 1.6), which makes entry to the park relatively easy. .31°E
32°E
Pafuri Gateo
N
A 6C;und
.
Maria
Punda Maria Gatect ,—
irheni. 23°S
23°S
Shingwedzi B teleur
Mopanio x Bou $
`
Jl
imuwi lli Le tab
Phalaborwa Gate Die= ==---'--1 2 . Olifan Balule 4°S x no
24°5
Satara
Orpen Gate + Talama
IN . wanetsi
irport
Kruger Gate
essie
25°S Numbi Gate ohoPretori. skop x Jock of tt
°B Main camps
Lower Sabie Bushveld Crocodile Bridge
Biy Main Roads
25°S
I
Berg en Dal Crocodile Bridge Gate Malelanex ZrMalelane Gate
El Private camps ED Bushveld camps El Campsites El Entry points 31°E
0
20
40km 32°E
Figure 1.6 The location of entry points (gates and Skukuza airport) and tourist camps in the Kruger National Park.
17 The National Parks Board provides a wide range of facilities for tourists to enjoy during their visits to the Kruger National Park. These include: a) Rest camp accommodation facilities
There are 25 rest camps in the Kruger National Park which provide a wide range of accommodation for overnight visitors. Sleeping accommodation is limited to 6 351 beds (3 861 beds in built accommodation and 2 490 camping). In addition, 2 415 daily visitors are also allowed into the Park. According to the type of accommodation available and the facilities provided, the rest camps are divided into four types. These are main camps, bushveld camps, private camps and camping sites. The location of these camps is indicated in Figure 1.6. Main camps
The main camps have been developed to provide comfortable rustic accommodation for visitors. All main camps have shops, restaurants and petrol facilities with the exception of Crocodile Bridge and Orpen which do not have restaurant facilities. These camps provide both huts and camping accommodation. Basic accommodation consists of a two-bedded but with a wash-basin or a two-bedded but with wash-basin, shower and toilet. Bedding and towels are supplied and a third bed can be provided at an extra nominal fee. Huts with three or four beds are available in some rest camps, while the larger camps also have a number of family cottages with stove, fridge, cooking utensils and cutlery. With the exception of some of the smaller camps, all huts have a fridge and an air conditioner. Bushveld camps
The bushveld camps satisfy the demand for smaller, remote camps. There are no shops, restaurants or petrol available in these camps. They are, however, relatively close to larger restcamps that provide these facilities. With the exception of Jakkalsbessie, electricity in these camps is generated by solar panels. Individual huts may be reserved in a bushveld camp. Access to bushveld camps is restricted to visitors who have reserved accommodation. The six bushveld camps are Bateleur, Biyamati, Jakkalsbessie, Shimuwini, Sirheni and Talamati.
18 Private camps
Private camps must be reserved as a unit and access to these camps is restricted to visitors with reservations. They are ideal for small groups who wish to enjoy the unspoilt African atmosphere of the Park. No shops, restaurants or petrol facilities are available at these camps. Visitors are therefore advised to purchase all necessary items beforehand. There are five of these camps namely, Boulders, Jock of the Bushveld, Malelane, N'wanetsi and Roodewal. Camping sites
There are two camping sites (Balule and Maroela), which are ideal for visitors seeking solitude. These camps have been developed to provide camping accommodation in areas where main camps do not provide camping accommodation. No shops, restaurants or petrol facilities are available. Power is provided by gas. Six additional huts have also been built at Balule for visitors without camping equipment. Day visitors are not allowed to enter these camps. Additional accommodation facilities
The Kruger National Park also offers seven wilderness trails namely, Bushman, Metsimetsi, Napi, Nyalaland, Olifants, Sweni and Wolhuter. These trails are conducted in spectacular wilderness areas under the expert guidance of experienced trail rangers who also play an interpretive and protective role. Accommodation comprises small rustic huts, reed-walled ablution facilities while a covered lapa serves as a dining and socialising area. Transport from main camps, bedding, towels and soap, all meals and limited refreshments are also included on these trails. Owing to their special nature, the wilderness trails are not included in any further investigations.
Other facilities and attractions
These include the following: Shaded areas with seating, braai areas and toilets are provided for day visitors at all the main camps with the exception of Lower Sabie. Swimming pools for the use of residents only are provided at Berg en Dal, Pretoriuskop, Mopani and Shingwedzi.
19 Environmental education centres are situated at Berg en Dal, Skukuza and Letaba. Night drives have been started from selected rest camps while day drives are available on request. Bank and Post Office facilities at Skukuza. Medical Practitioner at Skukuza. Daily flights between Johannesburg International Airport and Skukuza Airport. The fact that visitors have to remain in their vehicles outside the restcamps, has led to the establishment of twenty-two points where visitors may alight from their vehicles. These points offer a range of visitor amenities including seating, kiosks, braai areas and toilets. A large number of other look-out points where visitors must remain in their vehicles are also spread throughout the park. All the characteristics that have been discussed lay the foundation for the investigation that will follow.
1.6 RESEARCH MODEL The research model in Figure 1.7 shows that the research may be divided into five sections. These sections are the introduction and main objectives (Chapter 1), data collection (Chapter 2), diagrammatic and cartographic representation and the explanation of temporal and spatial variations (Chapter 3), tourist carrying capacity (Chapter 4) and the conclusions and suggestions (Chapter 5).
20
Chapter 1
Introduction and Main objectives
• Chapter 2
Data collection
• Tourist data
Non-tourist data
Number of tourists Occupation of accommodation
Chapter 3
Socio-economic Physical
• I
Diagrammatic and cartographic representation
Explanation of temporal and spatial variation
•
Chapter 4
Tourist Carrying Capacity
1 •
•
Chapter 5
Conclusions and Suggestions Figure 1.7 Flow diagram indicating research process.
••• •
CHAPTER 2
DATA COLLECTION
22
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The data collection phase of the research process is of cardinal importance, as all conclusions reached may be influenced by the type and quality of data collected (Daugherty, 1975, 1). In order to achieve the primary objective of this research (the investigation of the temporal and spatial variation of tourists in the Kruger National Park), two basic sets of data are needed. The first being tourist data, which will be used to establish the temporal and spatial variation of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park. The second set of data, namely nontourist data', will be used in an attempt to explain the inherent variations relating to the tourist data. The input data needed to research the secondary objective of this research namely, tourist carrying capacity, will originate from the results of the primary objective.
2.2 TOURIST DATA
The relevant tourist data was obtained from the National Parks Board's Visitor Services Office in Skukuza. The weekly tourist data covered a six year period from April 1988 up to and including March 1994. The data were recorded annually (ie for 52 weeks each year) commencing from the first week of April to the end of March of the following year. The tourist data is subdivided into tourists visiting the Park and the occupation of available accommodation by tourists. In addition to the above-mentioned weekly data, the annual number of tourists visiting the Park from 1968 to 1993 was also obtained.
• Non-tourist data includes socio-economic (political violence, inflation, holidays and tariffs) as well as physical (minimum- and maximum temperature, average rainfall and distance from the PWV) variables.
23 2.2.1 Tourists visiting the Kruger National Park
Data was received for all nine entry points to the Park, eight of these being road entry points and the ninth being Skukuza Airport (Figure 1.6). The road entrance gates are named Crocodile Bridge, Malelane, Numbi, Paul Kruger, Orpen, Phalaborwa, Punda Maria and Pafuri. The data were received on a weekly basis and included the following: total number of visitors. total number of overnight visitors. total number of day visitors. total number of foreign visitors. total number of motor vehicles. The weekly figures are not included owing to the sheer volume of the data but may be obtained from the Visitor Services Office in Skukuza. The number of tourists visiting the Park is, however, listed on an annual basis in Table 2.1. Table 2.1
Annual number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park. YEAR
TOTAL VISITORS
OVERNIGHT VISITORS
DAY VISITORS
1968
306 347
201 338
105 009
1969
349 710
225 062
124 648
1970
366 381
232 362
134 019
1971
341 232
245 156
96 076
1972
330 565
227 690
102 875
1973
359 632
242 749
116 883
1974
363 482
236 831
126 651
1975
374 892
247 807
127 085
1976
357 473
234 336
123 137
1977
372 988
239 366
133 622
1978
391 512
256 076
135 436
1979
396 653
261 862
134 791
1980
428 840
269 823
159 017
1981
463 853
280 391
183 462
1982
445 661
273 925
171 736
1983
451 780
281
046
170 734
1984
509 173
312 796
196 377
1985
462 657
283 810
178 847
1986
474 066.
299 187
174 879
1987
563 989
343 287
220 702
1988
625 430
362 938
262 492
1989
660 418
382 469
277 949
1990
686 223
387
192
299 031
1991
675 299
402 374
272 925
1992
657 266
398 022
259 244
1993
630 996
373 266
257730
1
24 2.2.2 Occupation of accommodation in the Kruger National Park In the Kruger National Park both huts and campsites are available for accommodation. As far as huts are concerned the following four variables of data were available (this data was all collected on a weekly basis): number of huts available as well as the number of huts occupied. number of beds available as well as the number of beds occupied. Concerning campsites, however, no data regarding the availability of campsites or camping beds was obtainable. Only the following data was available: number of campsites occupied. number of camping beds occupied. An indication of the type of available accommodation is given as an example in Table 2.2. This table lists all the available accommodation in the Park at the end of the study period (March 1994). This Table is not used in the investigation of the available accommodation.
2.2.3 Shortcomings of the data All the tourist data is considered to be reliable, however, minor problems were experienced with some of the data. Information concerning foreign visitors to the park, was available from April 1991 to March 1994, which covers a period of only three years whereas all other data covers a six year period. No data pertaining to foreign visitor arrivals relating to Skukuza Airport was available. Foreign visitors are included in the total number of visitors to the Park and as such, the missing data sets will therefore have no significant influence on the results obtained. Three variables relating to the occupation of accommodation (namely huts available, beds available and campsites occupied) were not obtainable prior to April 1989. The occupation of available accommodation can therefore be investigated for a five year period only and not for a six year period as was intended. No data relating to the availability of campsites and camping beds was obtainable for the study period. As a result the occupation of available accommodation will only be possible in respect of huts and beds.
25 No data for Jakkalsbessie Camp was available. This camp can accommodate only 32 visitors per night (0,5% of the total available beds). This missing data will therefore have a negligible influence on the results obtained. Table 2.2
Available accommodation as at March 1994.
ACCOMMODATION AVAILABLE
HUTS
BEDS
CAMPSITES
CAMPBEDS
MAIN CAMPS Berg en Dal
94
359
70
420
Crocodile Bridge
20
58
12
72
113
355
30
180
28
168
180
Letaba
97
227
Mopant
Lower Sable
103
380
Olifants
111
242
17
50
136
366
30
Orpen Pretoriuskop Punda Maria
23
50
50
300
165
442
50
300
80
219
50
300
238
660
60
360
1 197
3 408
380
2 280
Boulders
1
12
Jock of the Bushveld
1
19
Malelane
1
19
N'wanetsi
1
19
Satara Shingwedzi Skukuza Sub Total:
PRIVATE CAMPS
Roodewal Sub Total:
1
19
5
88
7
34
15
70
o
o
BUSHVELD CAMPS Bateleur Blyamati Jakkalbessie
8
32
Shimuwini
15
71
Sirheni
15
70
Talamati
15
70
75
347
6
18
Sub Total:
o
0
CAMPING CAMPS Balule Maroela Sub Total:
TOTAL AVAILABLE ACCOMMODATION
15
90
20
120
6
18
35
210
1 283
3 861
415
2 490
TOTAL NUMBER OF OVERNIGHT VISITORS •THAT CAN BE ACCOMMODATED
6 351
26 2.3
NON-TOURIST DATA
After the resultant temporal and spatial variations in tourist data was established, it is important to explain these variations. On the basis of temporal and spatial variations two types of data could be distinguished:
2.3.1 Socio-economic data
Four types of socio-economic data were collected, namely: Political violence: The deaths caused by political violence in South Africa was used
as an indicator for this variable and was obtained from the Centre for Race Relations. Inflation: The inflation rate was calculated using the consumer price index which was
obtained from the Central Statistical Service. The method by Mohr et al (1987) was used to calculate the inflation rate. Tariffs: The tariffs were all provided by the National Parks Board Head Office in
Pretoria. Holidays: The holidays used in this instance are the Transvaal School Holidays as the
Kruger National Park was located within the former Transvaal province. The source of this information was the former Transvaal Education Department (TED). These four factors will be discussed in Chapter 3 and used to account for temporal variations in the number of tourists visiting the Park between April 1988 and March 1994. This data is shown in Table 2.3.
2.3.2 Physical variables Two sets of spatially distributed data were collected, namely climatic and distance. a)
Climatic variables include average minimum- and maximum temperatures, as well
as the average annual rainfall. Data for the 11 weather stations in the Kruger National Park were received from both the Weather Bureau and Computer Centre for Water Research (CCWR). These climatic variables are illustrated in Figures 2.1 and 2.2.
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23•S
23•i
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4 28• 30• -
E3 29•
In
28•C 29•C 30•C 31•C 31•C .31•9
0
20
40km
Wm1=Immk= 32•E
Figure 2.1 Average minimum and maximum temperatures (°C) for the study period (April 1988 to March 1994). According to Figure 2.1 the minimum temperature increases in a north-easterly direction from the south-western region of the Park where the minimum temperatures are the coldest (less than 15°C) to the north-eastern border where the temperatures are warmer (greater than 17°C). In the north-western region warm minimum temperatures are also experienced (greater than 17°C). The maximum temperature is coldest (less than 28°C) in the south-western section (Figure 2.1) of the park and increases in a north-easterly direction where the hottest maximum temperatures are found (greater than 31° C).
29
Figure 2.2 Average annual rainfall (mm) for the study period (April 1988 to March 1994). The average annual rainfall (Figure 2.2) is highest in the south-western parts of the park (greater than 600 mm) and gradually decreases in both a south-easterly and a north-westerly direction. In the north-north-western sections of the park the lowest rainfall occurs (less than 300 mm). The extreme north-western part of the park, however, experiences relatively higher rainfall (between 400 and 500 mm) than the surrounding areas. b)
The distance variable is the distance from the PWV (Pretoria-WitwatersrandVereeniging region, now Gauteng province) to the Kruger National Park. The reference or starting point in the PWV for measuring distance is the CBD (central business district) of Johannesburg. This distance was used as the PWV area is
30 possibly the major source region for local tourists, as well as for foreign tourists landing at Johannesburg International Airport. These distances were measured on road maps and the shortest distance along the main roads was taken in each case for example from Johannesburg to Numbi the main roads that would be used are the N12, N4, R538 and 8569. As can be seen from Figure 2.3 the south western regions of the park lie relatively close to the PWV region (less than 400 km), while the extreme north-eastern sections are for obvious reasons more distant (approximately 600 km) from the PWV.
Figure 2.3 Distance (km) from the PWV. The above mentioned non-tourist information will be used to explain the spatial variation in the tourist data.
CHAPTER 3
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION OF TOURISTS
32 3.1
INTRODUCTION
This chapter deals with the primary objective of the study (section 1.4) and investigates the number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park as well as the occupation of accommodation in the park by tourists. Both of these factors are critical indicators of the tourist carrying capacity which will be discussed in detail in chapter 4.
3.2
TOURISTS VISITING THE KRUGER NATIONAL PARK
As a starting point to this study the annual number of tourists visiting the Park was investigated for the period 1968 to 1993 (Figure 3.1). This historical record illustrates a consistent increase in the annual number of tourists arriving at the Park. There are, however, minor fluctuations, which are possibly associated with incidents of political violence. From 1986 to 1990 a sharp increase in the number of visitors to the Kruger National Park was experienced. After 1990, however, the arrival of visitors shows a gradual decrease. This decrease is also reflected in the number of overnight and day visitors and may in all probability be attributed to increasing tariffs, continuing political violence and the high crime rate in the country.
Number of Tourists (Thousands)
700 600— Total Visitors Overnight Visitors Day
100
0
Figure 3.1
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
Years Annual number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park between 1968 and 1993.
33 The National Parks Board is concerned about the decreasing number of tourists. In 1990 the number of tourists that visited the Park was 686 223, while in 1993 the number of tourists had decreased to 630 996. This represents a decline of 55 227 tourists over the three year period (Table 2.1). It raises the question as to whether or not the Kruger National Park has reached it's optimum tourist carrying capacity and this will be investigated using the results of the temporal and spatial variation of tourists.
Total number of weekly visitors This data was used to indicate the average number of visitors to the Park. Figure 3.2 indicates fluctuations expressed as peaks (upward fluctuations) and valleys (downward fluctuations).
Total Visitors (Thousan ds)
2
III
4t 1 1
1
WI ,. ,„
Standard Deviation
i
NM= IKONS AININVII I I MU 1
11 \o/
..
S
N
6
Weeks
A = a representative number of visitors to the park for the second week of April
Figure 3.2 Average weekly number of visitors to the Kruger National Park per year (between April 1988 and March 1994). Four major peak periods are clearly visible, namely April, July, October and mid December to early January. Two minor peaks also occur, one during early May and the other late May to early June. All these peak periods coincide with school and public holidays. On the other hand three main valley periods can also be seen from late January to early March, August to late September and late October to early December. Shorter valley periods also occur during May and June these coincide with non-holiday periods.
34 In order to test the accuracy of the average number of weekly visitors to the park the standard deviation was calculated for each week and is also indicated in Figure 3.2. The standard deviations for Figure 3.2 were calculated as follows: For each weekly average the actual number of visitors for the corresponding weeks were used to calculate the standard deviation. The following formula was used:
1
SD=N
Ex 2
-x 2 -
(Ebdon, 1985, 28). Where:
SD = Standard deviation per week. x = actual number of visitors for each specific week. n = number of observations of the variable.
In order to illustrate its application, point A (indicated in Figure 3.2) has been selected. At point A (second week of April) the average number of visitors to the Park for that particular week is 18 208,67. The actual number of visitors for the corresponding week over the six year study period is listed below: 1988 -
20 647
1989 -
9 656
1990 -
20 694
1991 -
15 157
1992 -
17 670
1993 -
25 428
The actual number of visitors as well as the average number of visitors is now used as follows in the above-mentioned formula:
SD -
I
(20647) 2 + (9656) 2 + (20694) 2 + (15157) 2 + (17670) 2 + (25428) 2 -18208,67 2 6
= 4 949,62
35 The resultant standard deviation is 4 949,62. As the standard deviation is a measure of dispersion around the average, it can be assumed that the relative number of visitors to the park for this week varied between 23 158,29 and 13 259,05. In this respect it should be noted that for each week the standard deviation will differ but nonetheless a general trend is discernible. The larger the standard deviation the higher the variation between the average number of visitors and the actual number of visitors over the six year period for the same week. The smaller the standard deviation the less the variation between the average number of visitors and the actual number of visitors. Therefore the smaller the standard deviation the more accurate the average will be as a representation of the actual number of visitors. In Figure 3.2 the largest standard deviations occur during the weeks of April and May and varies from 2 000 to 5 000. This may be ascribed to the fact that the Easter holidays and the May public holidays do not always fall in the same week every year (large variations in the number of visitors entering the park may be experienced between a week with no holidays and a holiday week). During July and December smaller standard deviations of between 1 000 and 3 000 are experienced and may be attributed to the fact that these weeks always fall during holiday periods. The smallest standard deviations, between 250 and 1 000, occur during February, September and November and may be as a result of these months always falling outside school holidays periods. It can be deduced from the above that the most important factor influencing the temporal variability of tourists is school and public holidays. It is therefore essential that these peak periods be effectively managed.
Spatial distribution of tourists visiting the Park In order to determine the spatial distribution of tourists visiting the Park, four main sets of data were needed for all points of entry, ie total number of visitors, total number of overnight visitors, total number of day visitors and total number of foreign visitors. These are illustrated in Figure 3.3.
36 Spatial variations are clearly evident in Figure 3.3. Kruger Gate is the most favoured point of entry (27% of total visitors) because of its relative closeness to major populated areas, as well as the fact that Skukuza is the largest restcamp in the Park and therefore has the largest amount of available accommodation. The least fancied entry point is Pafuri Gate (1,2% of total visitors). This may be ascribed to its remote location. From Figure 3.3 it can also be seen that according to intensity of use the entry points can be roughly divided into two categories namely the southern and northern entry points. The southern entry points account for a large majority (70%) of the visitors entering the Park owing to their closer proximity to the Gauteng metropolitan area. Kruger Gate accounts for 27%, Numbi 17% and Malelane 19% of the total number of visitors. A large number of overnight visitors also use these southern entry points as the restcamps are closer to the gates (Figure 1.6). The fact that Kruger Gate and Numbi Gate are in close proximity to both Nelspruit and other tourist resorts outside the Park, results in these two gates also having higher proportions of day visitors namely, 29% and 19% respectively. Kruger, Numbi and Malelane Gates are also extensively used by foreign visitors and account for 36%, 17% and 22% of foreign visitors respectively. This can be attributed to the closer proximity of these gates to the Johannesburg International Airport. Although Crocodile Bridge Gate (the most easterly gate in the Park) is close to the above-mentioned gates, it is less frequently used as visitors prefer to travel eastward inside the Park boundaries, thereby extending the period of time actually spent within the boundaries of the park. Skukuza Airport accounts for a very small percentage of visitors (1,27%) owing to the higher costs associated with air transportation and subsequent car hire.
37
II Total visitors
ea Overnight visitors Day visitors Foreign visitors
Figure 3.3 The percentage number of tourists visiting the Park according to points of entry.
38
Entry points irr the northern parts - of the Park account for a smaller proportion - of visitors (30%) entering the park. This is as a result of increasing distances, together with relatively higher temperatures associated with travelling northwards. The decrease is clearly illustrated with the exception of Phalaborwa Gate, which receives 15 % of visitors as this gate serves as the- only entry point for a large area of the park as well as a large number of camps. It is obvious from the above that the southern entry points are more extensively used than the northern entry points and clear spatial differences are thus evident.
3.3 THE OCCUPATION OF ACCOMMODATION IN THE KRUGER NATIONAL PARK
This part of the investigation is divided into three sections: accommodation available - accommodation occupied percentage occupation of available accommodation
3.3.1 Accommodation available
Two types of accommodation are available in the Park namely huts and campsites. As no information regarding the availability of campsite accommodation was received from the National Parks Board, only but accommodation will be investigated. As far as the but accommodation is concerned, the following is important (Figure 3.4): Huts available: The total number of huts available to paying visitors. (Huts which are occupied by staff members, or huts which are in the process of being renovated are not regarded as available.) Beds available in the occupied huts:
The total number of beds available to paying visitors.
Available Accommodation (Thousands)
39
. .j.._,—..........„--\____I------s-----,,,,,
---■. ."-%
25
...----....,....„_\. .
_ —
Beds Available
Huts Available
llr
I
0
5
.
..... . „ „ .
„ .
...
1990
1991
1
1993
1994
Weeks Figure 3.4 Available accommodation (huts and beds) per week in the Kruger National Park from April 1989 to March 1994. Both the available huts as well as beds in these huts, show fluctuations. A major fluctuation in the available accommodation (Figure 3.4, point A) can be attributed to the opening of a new main camp, namely Mopani Camp, as well as four new bushveld camps. The newly opened bushveld camps were Biyamati, Shimuwini, Sirheni and Talamati (the location of these camps is illustrated in Figure 1.6). Minor fluctuations can be ascribed to renovations as well as the erection of additional accommodation within existing camps. The availability of accommodation is important for the investigation of the physical tourist carrying capacity (described in Chapter 4), as it provides a limit to the number of tourists that can be accommodated overnight. 3.3.2 Accommodation occupied
The occupation of the accommodation in the Park is important as it provides an indication of the tourists staying overnight. The occupation of huts and campsites will be investigated using the following: Huts occupied:
All huts occupied by one or more paying visitors.
Beds occupied:
All beds occupied by paying visitors.
Campsites occupied:
All campsites occupied by one or more paying visitors.
Camping beds occupied:
All people camping.
40 The average number of huts occupied every week (for the period 1988/89 to 1993/94) is portrayed in Figure 3.5. The average number of huts occupied shows fluctuations. Between April and October and in the month of December a greater number of huts are occupied (this varies between 6 500 and 8 000). A sharp decline (to approximately 4 000) is experienced from mid January to the end of March and from the end of October to the second week of December. Both these periods fall within non-school holiday periods. Peaks coincide with all the major school holiday periods. 8000 7500 7000 6500 3
6000
0 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500
J
III•
F
llllllll
M
•.I.trIF.T11.
A
MJJ
A
Nl
r5 " '
Weeks Figure 3.5 The average weekly number of huts occupied per year (between April 1988 and March 1994). The average number of beds occupied per week (for the period 1988/89 to 1993/94) is shown in Figure 3.6. This figure shows similar peak and valley periods when compared to the average number of huts occupied as well as the average number of visitors to the Park (Figure 3.5 and 3.2 respectively). This proves that these variables all follow the same general temporal pattern. A comparison of Figures 3.5 and 3.6 indicates that the average number of beds occupied shows sharper fluctuations than the number of huts occupied. This is owing to the fact that huts are regarded as occupied even though all the beds available in such huts have not necessarily been used. The difference in fluctuations between huts and beds occupied is especially evident during the months of June, August and September.
41 The reason for this is that all beds within huts are fully occupied during the school holidays (eg. July), while non-school holiday periods (June, August and September) still maintain high but occupancies but the beds in these huts are not fully utilised. 26
Beds Occupied (Thousands)
24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 .1.
8J
ft VVV
4 VV
—A - M
J
J " . A
" . §" . 6 '''' 14 ''' 6 " "
Weeks Figure 3.6 The average weekly number of beds occupied per year (between April 1988 and March 1994). Figures 3.7 and 3.8 illustrate the average number of campsites as well as the average number of camping beds occupied every week. Here again, the fluctuation in the average number of camping beds is greater than the fluctuation in the average number of campsites occupied. A campsite is regarded as occupied even though only one person is camping on that site. The peaks in the case of campsites are, however, more pronounced than hutted accommodation (huts and beds). This proves that there is a large influx of camping visitors during the school holiday periods, indicating the preference of families with school going children to opt for the more affordable camping accommodation.
42
Campsites Occupied
3500
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-1 ,1
A
,11v11- 1;1 - 11.1- 1 -
M
J
A
J
§ 6
N
Weeks Figure 3.7 The average weekly number of campsites occupied per year (between April 1989 and March 1994). Camping Beds Occupied (Thousands)
16 14 12 10 8
v\J
6 4 2
o-J
M
A
M
J
J
A
N
6
-
r
Weeks
Figure 3.8 The average weekly number of camping beds occupied per year (between April 1988 and March 1994). In the case of both the average number of campsites as well as the camping beds occupied the valley periods from late January to the end of March and late October to the beginning of December show a pronounced drop.
This is as a result of the higher summer
43 temperatures (between 7° and 10°C higher). A December peak is, however, still visible owing to the higher demand for accommodation during school holidays. After comparing the peak periods of the camping accommodation with that of the hutted accommodation, it is clear that they differ. The summer peaks in the case of camping accommodation are relatively lower than the peaks for hutted accommodation. This is owing to higher temperatures in summer, which in the case of hutted accommodation is compensated for by air-conditioning. The occupation of accommodation highlighted the fact that strong temporal variations are experienced which once again can be associated with school holidays.
3.3.3 Percentage occupation of available accommodation The percentage occupation of available accommodation will be examined in respect of both huts and beds and will be used to determine the average percentage occupation of available accommodation. Temporal variability The average percentage but occupation per week is shown in Figure 3.9. loo
%Huts Occupied
so co
40-
20
0
J
M
A
J
A
N
Weeks Figure 3.9
The average weekly percentage but occupation per week (between April 1989 and March 1994).
6
44 According to this figure the average percentage but occupation is variable and fluctuations of between 50% and 96% are evident. During the periods of April to October and December to mid January but occupancies are high (between 78% and 96%). In contrast, from mid-January to the end of March and again during November the but occupancies decrease to between 50% and 60%. A similar pattern is evident when the occupation of beds is examined. This is indicated in Figure 3.10. 100
% Beds Occupied
so
so
ao 20
0
J
M
A
M
J
J
A
b
N
6
Weeks Figure 3.10 The average weekly bed occupation percentage per year (between April 1989 and March 1994). It can be seen that the average percentage bed occupancy (Figure 3.10) varies between 37% and 96%. The only difference between but and bed occupancy is, that the percentage bed occupancy shows more pronounced periods of decreased occupancies (between 10% and 15 %) than is the case in the percentage but occupancy. The reason for these differences is that a but is considered occupied even though it only has one occupant, whereas it can in fact accommodate more than one visitor. As a result of this, bed occupancy rates are considered to be a more accurate reflection of the utilization of accommodation by tourists. Once again it is evident that the temporal variations of but and bed occupancy are controlled by the occurrence of school holidays.
45
Spatial variability Figure 3.11 illustrates the spatial variation in the average percentage but occupancy for a five year period (between April 1989 and March 1994).
Figure 3.11 The average percentage but occupation (between April 1989 and March 1994). The highest but occupancies are experienced in the south-eastern half of the Park (between 70 % and 90%). This may be attributed to the closer proximity of this region to the highly populated Gauteng area. The average but occupancies decrease in a north-westerly direction which may be caused by rising temperatures as well as the increased distance from Gauteng. Punda Maria, in the far north, which has a but occupancy of 71% is an exception to this
46 This camp appeals to the visitor because of it's rustic accommodation and pattern. atmosphere as well as the possibility of observing a large variety of bird life as this is a more wooded area. As a result of it's central location in the Park, Satara has a high average but occupancy of 92%. The southern and south-western areas of the Park have low but occupancies compared to the surrounding areas. The reason for this is that more expensive accommodation is available in these areas in the form of bushveld and private camps and there is also a relative scarcity of animal life in these areas compared with the rest of the Park. Once again a relatively similar spatial pattern is evident in the bed occupancy which is illustrated in Figure 3.12.
Figure 3.12 The average percentage bed occupation (between April 1989 and March 1994).
47 The average percentage bed occupancy exhibits a similar variable pattern to the average percentage but occupation, the only exception being that bed occupancies are generally lower than but occupancies. Bed occupancy rates decrease from the southeast towards the northwest with the exception of Punda Maria in the far north, which has a bed occupancy of 70%. Exceptionally high bed occupancies are experienced at Olifants (88%), Satara (82%), Lower Sabie (87%) and Skukuza (74%) camps. The central location of Satara and Olifants camps and the siting of Skukuza and Lower Sabie on the banks of the Sabie River are possible reasons for the high bed occupancies in these camps. The southernmost area of the park has a low average bed occupancy (below 50%). In all possibility this is caused by the more expensive accommodation that is available in the area. Because of its remote location, in the far North Sirheni bushveld camp also has a low bed occupancy (27%). At this stage of the investigation it has been illustrated that both temporal and spatial variability exists in relation to the number of tourists visiting the Park, as well as the occupancy of accommodation. Possible reasons for these variations will now be investigated.
3.4 EXPLANATION OF THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATIONS IN TOURIST DATA
So far it has been shown that temporal and spatial variations do in fact exist in relation to the tourist data. These temporal and spatial variations in the tourist data can in all probability be attributed to two main groups of factors which have previously been referred to as nontourist data. These are: * Socio-economic data
(section 2.3.1: political violence, inflation, holidays and tariffs).
* Physical variables
(section 2.3.2: minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and distance from the PWV).
However, what is not clear at this stage is what factors cause these variations. In order to determine and explain these causes and to eventually make predictions relating to these causes, a linear correlation and regression analysis is used.
48 Because the available data for this study is classified as being of the ratio scale type, it was decided to use Pearson's simple linear correlation to establish the strength of the association between the tourist data (number of visitors and occupation of accommodation) and the nontourist data. Furthermore a simple linear regression analysis is also performed in order to establish the form of the relationship and will ultimately be used to make predictions regarding the relevant tourist data.
3.4.1 Explanation of the temporal variation in tourist data The number of tourists visiting the park will be used to establish the strength of the association between visitors and socio-economic data'. The other tourist variables such as beds and huts occupied do not provide a true reflection of the temporal variation of tourists, as tourists may remain in the park for long periods, thereby artificially compounding their presence. Although Figure 3.2 indicated the average weekly number of visitors to the Kruger National Park, it was decided that the dual number of visitors to the Park would be a more accurate reflection of the true temporal variation and, as such, this data will be used in the linear correlation. These visitor numbers are indicated in Figure 3.13.
TotalVisitors (Thousands)
30
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Weeks
Figure 3.13 The actual number of weekly visitors to the Kruger National Park between April 1988 and March 1994.
• Only the socio-economic data is used to explain the temporal variation in tourist data as the physical variables are not expected to have drastic week to week variations as is expected in the tourist data.
49 From this figure it is apparent that large fluctuations in the number of visitors to the Park occur. Clear peaks occur during the school holidays periods in April, July and December. Major valley periods occur during the non-school holiday periods of January to March, MayJune, August-September and November. Each of the socio-economic variables that may influence the temporal variation will be tested against the number of tourists visiting the Park. However, before this is undertaken a short discussion of each of these variables will assist in understanding the strength of the relationship once it has been established. a) Political violence
Deaths resulting from political violence in South Africa is the indicator that will be used and is shown in Figure 3.14. 160 140
Number ofdeaths
120 100 80
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Weeks Figure 3.14 Deaths resulting from political violence in South Africa between April 1988 and March 1994.
It can be seen that from 1990 onwards political violence showed an increase and can be attributed to many factors. The Development Bank of Southern Africa (1991) and Ryan (1993) both imply that political violence may have detrimental effects on tourism. It is, however, uncertain as to what effect this will have on the temporal variation in the number of visitors to the Kruger National Park.
50 Inflation Inflation is a good economic indicator of the general situation of the South African economy (Central Statistical Service, 1992). Inflation is defined by Hardwick et al (1986) as, "the continued increase in general price levels." The resultant inflation rate for the study period is illustrated in Figure 3.15. 18 16 14 12 10
ae 8 6 4 2
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Weeks Figure 3.15 The inflation rate in South Africa between April 1988 and March 1994. During the period under investigation the inflation rate started at approximately 12% and increased to 15% in 1989. It hovered around 15% and finally dropped to 9% in 1992. The inflation rate has remained relatively low (at around 10%) since the end of 1993. High inflation could therefore result in a decrease in visitors to the Park because it could have a bearing on tariff increases. Tariffs Both hutted and campsite tariffs for the period April 1988 to March 1994 are indicated in Figure 3.16. These tariffs not only show an increase in both cases, but also the same basic pattern in that they have a stepped appearance. Huts have a sharper increase than camping due to the higher costs associated with hutted accommodation. These tariffs were calculated as follows: Hut Tariff: admission fee + but accommodation cost per night. Campsite Tariff: admission fee + campsite accommodation cost per night.
51 2
Hut tariff Campsite tariff
I 1
1989
1990
1 991 Weeks
1993
Figure 3.16 Comparison of tariffs in the Kruger National Park for but and campsite accommodation between April 1988 and March 1994. Up to March 1991 tariffs were increased annually during April, however, after this date two tariff increases were made annually. The fact that the latest tariff increase (end of 1993) was relatively lower than previous tariff increases, indicates that the National Parks Board has realised that increasing tariffs has outstripped the demand for accommodation.
d) Transvaal School Holidays Figure 3.17 indicates the number of non-school days (holidays) per week between 1988/89 and 1993/94. The shaded areas are the holiday periods while the unshaded areas are the school-going periods. Major holiday periods are April, July, October and December. It can be assumed that a greater number of visitors to the park will occur during holidays and this has in fact already been proved in previous sections.
on-schoolDa s • er ee l
52
Figure 3.17 Non-school days per week between April 1988 and March 1994.
The strength of the association resulting from the correlation analysis between each of the above-mentioned four socio-economic variables and the number of visitors to the Kruger National Park are illustrated in Table 3.1. Table 3.1
The results of the correlation analysis between the number of visitors to the Park and socio-economic variables.
Socio-economic variable
Correlation Coefficient (r)
Coefficient of Determination
Political Violence
0,0365
0,13 %
Inflation
0,1453
2,11 %
-0,0501
0,26 %
-0,0321
0,10 %
0,7028
49,39 %
Tariffs
i) Hut Tariff
ii) Campsite Tariff Transvaal School Holidays
(Degrees of freedom = n-2) (Number of cases = 312)
53 In order to indicate the accuracy of the above correlation coefficients, the statistical significance was determined. Only two of the above correlation coefficients (ie inflation and Transvaal school holidays) proved to be significant at the 99,9% level. It may therefore be concluded that any statement concerning these two correlation coefficients can be made with 99,9% certainty (Ebdon, 1985, 96 & 218). Using the critical values of Toyne and Newby (1974)* the resultant correlation coefficients in Table 3.1 were all judged to be weak with the exception of the correlation between the number of visitors to the Park and the Transvaal school holidays where a value of r = 0,7028 was attained. The coefficient of determination in this case indicates that 49,39% of the variation in visitors to the Park may be explained by the variation in Transvaal school holidays (Ebdon, 1985, 114). Since a significant correlation was found to exist between the number of visitors to the Park and Transvaal school holidays, a regression analysis was performed in order to make predictions about the number of visitors to the Park. The results of the regression formula y=a+bx is y = 7796,87 + 1488,13 (x)
where:
y = number of visitors to the Kruger National Park per week. a = normal number of visitors to the park per week. b = increase in number of visitors for every non school day per week. x = non school-going days per week.
The resultant regression line is illustrated in Figure 3.18.
Toyne and Newby (1974) list the following critical values to describe the different degrees of correlation: 0,700 to ± 1,000 show a high degree of association, 0,400 to ± 0,700 show a substantial relationship, 0,200 to ± 0,400 show a low degree of correlation, 0,000 to ± 0,200 show a negligible relationship.
54
Total Visitors (Thousands)
30
ri
25
CI
,--l....l
20 = 15
0 U 0
0
CD P
10
0
g
0
4
5
IIM OM
5
00
1
2
3
6
7
8
Transvaal School Holidays per Week
Figure 3.18 The regression line indicating the relationship, between Transvaal school holidays (non-school days per week) and number of visitors to the park. This regression formula can now be used to predict the number of visitors that could be expected to visit the Kruger National Park in a specific week (y) during the year, by substituting the number of non school-going days for that week for "x" in the formula. In terms of the above formula, 7 796,87 visitors would normally visit the Kruger National Park during that particular week. This will increase by 1 488,13 visitors for every non school day occurring in the applicable week, for example: A week having 3 non school-going days is expected to have 12 261,26 visitors. This is arrived at as follows: y = 7 796,87 + 1 488,13 (3) = 12' 261,26 visitors The associated standard error of estimation, however, is 2 957. According to Mcgrew and Monroe (1993, 278) this means that every predicted value can vary by 2 957 visitors above or below the actual value. This variation, as stipulated by the standard error of estimation, in the predicted number of visitors must be taken into account when this regression model is used to make predictions. The prediction above of 12 261,26 visitors in a week with 3 non school days may therefore vary between 9 304,26 and 15 218,26.
55 3.4.2 Explanation of the spatial variation in tourist data The variable that will be used to explain the spatial variation in tourist data is the average percentage bed occupation (Figure 3.12). This is regarded as being the most reliable representation of the spatial variation in tourist data as the average percentage bed occupation covers the whole park (24 camps), whereas the number of visitors to the park is represented by only nine entry points. Bed occupation also provides a more accurate reflection of the actual spatial variation than but occupation, as huts are considered occupied even if inhabited by only one visitor. In order to explain the spatial variation in tourist data the average percentage bed occupation will only be correlated with the physical variables because the socio-economic variables do not have a spatial distribution. These variables include minimum- and maximum temperatures, average annual rainfall and distance from the PWV. The above-mentioned physical variables have been discussed in the previous chapter, however, cognisance should nevertheless be taken of the following. The preceding investigation into the number of visitors to the Park (see p. 39) has already indicated that the climatic variables could play a role in explaining the variation in the tourist data. The spatial distribution of the average minimum- and maximum temperatures as well as the average annual rainfall is illustrated in Figures 2.1 and 2.2 respectively (Chapter 2 pages 28-29). The distance from the PWV will also be used to explain the spatial variation in tourist data. This distance is important as the PWV area is a major source of domestic tourists as well as the starting point for many foreign tourists (Xcel, 1991). The distance from the PWV is illustrated in Figure 2.3 (Chapter 2, page 30).
The necessary input data for the correlation analysis was extracted from the above-mentioned isoline maps using a method explained by Mcgrew and Monroe (1993, 259). A regular grid of sample points 5mm apart was placed over each isoline map. The two maps being compared in each case had identical scales so that the same point grid pattern could be placed over both maps. A regular grid pattern of 105 points was superimposed on each isoline map. Once the grid of sample points is placed over the isoline maps the value of both
56
distributed variables being compared (for example average percentage bed occupation and minimum temperature) are recorded for each matching pair of points. Where points do not fall directly on an isoline, interpolation of numeric values is necessary. The matching pair of points for the two variables being compared are used in the correlation analysis. The results of the simple correlation analysis are listed in Table 3.2. Table 3.2
The results of the correlation analysis between the average percentage bed occupation and physical variables.
Physical variable
Correlation Coefficient (r)
Coefficient of Determination
Minimum Temperature
-0,1979
3,92 %
Maximum Temperature
-0,2310
5,34 %
0,8400
70,56 %
-0,6063
36,77 %
Rainfall Distance from the PWV
(Degrees of freedom = n-2) (Number of cases = 105) The above correlation coefficients all proved significant at 99,9%. From Table 3.2 it can be seen that the correlation coefficients between average bed occupation and temperatures were too weak and will not be discussed further. a) Rainfall
The correlation coefficient between the average percentage bed occupation and the average annual rainfall is 0,8400, which indicates a high degree of association between these two variables. This may be attributed to the vegetation types resulting from higher rainfall which in turn attract a diversity of animals for tourists to view. The associated coefficient of determination proves that 70,56 % of the variation in the average percentage bed occupation can be explained by using this variation in average rainfall.
57 The regression analysis enables predictions to be made. The results of the regression line y=a+bx is:
y = 19,7382 + 0,0876322 (x) y = average percentage bed occupation a = normal average percentage bed occupation b = increase in percentage bed occupation per millimetre increase in average annual rainfall x = average annual rainfall (mm)
where:
100
=I
BedOccupation %
so
I=
CI
M
so
=
=I
C..=
.
1M
=I ....
--•
MI NM
= = Cgi
oal
.IM.
93
40 1•11
20
200
.
300
.
400
500
600
700
Rainfall (mm) Figure 3.19 The regression line indicating the relationship between average annual rainfall and average percentage bed occupation. In terms of the above formula, 19,7382 % is the average percentage bed occupation that will be experienced at any given point in the Park. For each millimetre of average annual rainfall experienced at any specific point an increase of 0,0876322 % bed occupation is predicted. For example, a point in the Kruger National Park having an average annual rainfall of 550 mm will experience an average percentage bed occupation of 67,93591 %. This is calculated as follows: y = 19,7382 + 0,0876322 (550) = 67,93591 % bed occupation. The associated standard error of estimation is 6,43, which means that any prediction of bed occupation percentage using the above regression formula may vary by 6,43 %, both above and below the predicted value.
58 b) Distance from the PWV
The correlation coefficient resulting from the investigation of the relationship between distance from the PWV and average percentage bed occupation indicated a substantial negative relationship (-0.6063). This implies that as distance from the PWV increases the average percentage bed occupation will decline. The coefficient of determination in turn indicates that 36,77 % of the variation in average bed occupancy may be explained by the variation in distance from the PWV. The relatively strong resultant negative association between these two variables necessitated a regression analysis in order to assist in making predictions of average percentage bed occupancy using the distance from the PWV. The resultant regression line is: y = 107,342 - 0,0976414 (x) where: y = average percentage bed occupation a = percentage bed occupation if the Park were located in the PWV b = decrease in bed occupation per kilometre distance from the PWV x = distance from the PWV (km) 100
0
Bed Occupation %
80
L-I
0
0
0
so
M
C O q2:7 —v.'. — .7.=
-
8 d'T
ow 0
=
I=I
I=I
.1•1' ta'J
I= ..
..,.. ....
SIM
=1
==II=
.. ,..
M.
ice% ...1-16.1 =I C:3 P •
20-
300
400
500
7
800
Distance from the PWV (km) Figure 3.20 The regression line indicating the relationship between distance from the PWV
and the average percentage bed occupation.
59 In terms of the formula the Kruger National Park would experience 107,342 % bed occupancy if the park was located in the PWV area. However, with every kilometre from the PWV the average percentage bed occupancy decreases by 0,0976414 %. Predictions can therefore be made by substituting the distance from the PWV into the regression formula. For example: A point being 600 kilometres from the PWV would have a average bed occupation of 48,75716 %. This is calculated as follows: y = 107,342 - 0,0976414 (600) = 48,75716 % bed occupation The associated standard error of estimation is 9,42, which means that any prediction of bed occupancy using distance from the PWV may vary by 9,42 %.
c) Future predictions Although no more predictions will be made in this study, the staff of the Kruger National Park can use the results of the above regression analyses above to make predictions relating to the number of visitors to the Park as well as the average percentage bed occupancy. The number of visitors to the Park can be predicted by using the number of non school-going days per week while the average percentage bed occupation can be predicted by using either the average annual rainfall or distance from the PWV. These predictions will facilitate effective planning and management of visitors and facilities in the Kruger National Park.
3.5 CONCLUSION The objective of this chapter was to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of tourists in the Kruger National Park. This chapter is primarily descriptive in nature. It was found that both the number of visitors as well as the occupation of the available accommodation in the Kruger National Park, vary over time and space. Of the variables investigated in this chapter, the temporal variation was best explained by Transvaal school holidays, while rainfall and distance from the PWV produced the best explanation for the spatial variation in tourists in the Park. This chapter was necessary as it forms the foundation on which the investigation into tourist carrying capacity, is based.
CHAPTER 4
TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
61 4.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter investigates the secondary objective of the study (section 1.4) namely the tourist carrying capacity of the Kruger National Park. Tourist carrying capacity can be viewed in various ways (section 1.3), however, only the physical- and perceptual tourist carrying capacity will be investigated. The possibility of placing numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity will also be discussed.
4.2 THE PHYSICAL TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
The physical tourist carrying capacity refers to the maximum number of tourists that can visit the Kruger National Park at any moment in time (this includes both day and overnight visitors). Figure 3.4 in Chapter 3 indicated that the but accommodation (huts and beds) increased between April 1989 and March 1994, which in turn led to an increase in the physical tourist carrying capacity. In all probability it is likely that there has also been a corresponding increase in available campsite accommodation. In view of this, it is important to investigate the extent to which both the available accommodation and the available day visitor quotas are being utilised. This will provide important results regarding the tourist carrying capacity, which in turn will facilitate effective future tourism planning and management.
4.2.1 The percentage occupation of available but accommodation
The occupation of available but accommodation will be investigated in respect of both huts and beds as this will determine the percentage use of all available but accommodation.
62 a) The occupation of huts
Table 4.1 indicates that the number of available huts has increased between April 1989 and March 1994, thereby also causing an increase in the optimum physical tourist carrying capacity. The percentage occupation of huts, however, causes concern as this is declining annually from 88,62 % in 1989/90 to 69,35 % in 1993/94. This decrease could have negative financial implications. In all probability this is due to the fact that a greater number of huts are available as well as there being a decrease in the number of visitors to the Park since 1990 (Figure 3.1). As a result of the decreasing percentage occupation of huts the physical tourist carrying capacity relating to huts will not be reached in the near future. Table 4.1
Huts available and occupied annually between April 1989 and March 1994.
Year
Huts available
Huts occupied
% Occupied
1989/90
383 581
339 929
88,62
1990/91
388 109
335 732
86,50
1991/92
452 053
345 493
76,43
1992/93
459 903
335 639
72,98
1993/94
460 409
319 278
69,35
b) The occupation of beds
The available number of beds has increased annually owing to the opening of new camps and the building of new huts within existing camps. Table 4.2 indicates that there has been a continued decrease in the percentage of beds being occupied from 76,67 % in 1989/90 to 58,12 % in 1993/94. Table 4.2
Beds available and occupied annually between April 1989 and March 1994.
Year
Beds available
Beds occupied
% Occupied
1989/90
1 128 409
865 129
76,67
1990/91
1 152 611
854 073
74,10
1991/92
1 389 027
894 151
64,37
1992/93
1 414 254
874 308
61,82
1993/94
1 417 735
824 009
58,12
63 The above mentioned decrease in percentage bed occupation leads to the conclusion that the physical tourist carrying capacity relating to beds will also not be reached in the near future. 4.2.2 The percentage occupation of available campsite accommodation No information regarding the availability of campsite accommodation was received for the years 1988-1994. The only available data in this respect was for March 1994 (Table 2.2) and is illustrated in Figure 4.1. c
100
0
0 E E 0
80
•
so
0 0.
E
0
C.)
40
0 0.
20
0 0-
J
M
A r M
J
J
A
§
6
N
6
r-r•
Weeks Figure 4.1 Percentage occupation of available campsite accommodation.' Figure 4.1 indicates that school holidays are the periods which require effective management as these are the periods when the heaviest pressure on the Kruger National Park's resources is experienced. 4.2.3 The percentage utilization of available day visitor quotas. Day visitor quotas were imposed after the National Parks Board realised that the number of day visitors had to be limited as a large daily influx takes place during school holidays. The day visitor quota for each entry gate is listed in Table 4.3 and shown in Figure 4.2.
The availability of campsite accommodation is assumed to remain constant throughout the study period, as no information regarding the availability of campsite accommodation was obtainable.
64 Table 4.3
Day visitor quota. DAY VISITOR QUOTA
ENTRY GATE Crocodile Bridge
180
Malelane
300
Numbi
300
Paul Kruger
300
Orpen
360
Palaborwa
375
Punda Maria
300
Pafuri
300
TOTAL
2 415
%Utilization of Day Visitor Quota
100
80
so
40
20
0
J
M
A
PA
J
J
A
§
6
D
Weeks Figure 4.2 The average percentage of day visitor quota filled. The school holidays again emerge as the periods of maximum influx of day visitors (April, July, October and December). As the day visitor quotas are never fully filled, it is an indication that these quotas are set at too high a level to have any significant limiting effect on the number of day visitors entering the Park. From the above it becomes evident that the physical tourist carrying capacity in respect of day visitors will not, in the near future, reach the quotas presently set.
65 It should be stressed that the physical tourist carrying capacity has never been reached in the Kruger National Park with respect to available accommodation and the number of day visitors. In fact, during the study period, there has been a 19,27 % decrease in but occupation and a 18,55 % decrease in bed occupation. The campsite accommodation was also not fully occupied and day visitors quotas were also not reached. These decreases could have significant financial implications. It is evident that more overnight and day visitors can be accommodated throughout the year, particularly during non-school holiday periods. It may therefore be concluded that the physical tourist carrying capacity will not be reached or exceeded in the near future. The decrease in the number of visitors to the Park cannot therefore be attributed to a lack of available accommodation. It may, however, be attributed to decreasing levels of visitor enjoyment and for this reason the perceptual tourist carrying capacity is investigated.
43 THE PERCEPTUAL TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
Perceptual tourist carrying capacity refers to the lowest level of enjoyment tourists are prepared to accept before seeking alternative destinations. It relates directly to the quality of the recreational experience. The perceptual tourist carrying capacity will be investigated using a cost-benefit approach. The costs are those which are incurred in order to obtain a recreational experience and relate directly to time and money. The benefits enjoyed relate to the quality of the experience as well as the satisfaction obtained from this experience. As long as the benefits that are gained from the experience outweigh the costs associated with attaining that experience, the perceptual tourist carrying capacity will not be exceeded. Conversely, if costs are higher than the benefits, the perceptual tourist carrying capacity has been exceeded and this will in turn lead to a decrease in the number of visitors to the Park. This approach can be affected by either an increase or a decrease in the costs incurred and/or
66 the benefits obtained. The increase or decrease in either of these factors leads to a new equilibrium which directly influences the number of visitors to the Park. Costs can be increased or decreased by amending tariffs, while benefits may be increased by the provision of better facilities and services, conversely overcrowding and pollution could lead to a decrease in benefits. The cost-benefit approach is illustrated in Figure 4.3.
As costs increase Arrivals decrease
As benefits increase Arrivals increase
Total visitors
Figure 4.3 The cost-benefit approach. The decreasing number of visitors to the Kruger National Park (Figure 3.1) since 1990 could indicate that, at present, the costs associated with a visit to the Park outweigh the benefits. It is important to remember that this may be the general tendency for the entire Park, but there could be spatial and temporal fluctuations in this pattern. The investigation into the perceptual tourist carrying capacity has brought the issue of the effect of increasing tariffs to the fore. Smith (1989, 99) supports this by indicating that higher consumption is usually associated with lower prices and lower consumption with higher prices. The two aspects that will be investigated in order to establish whether increasing tariffs do in fact have a detrimental effect on the number of visitors to the Park are price elasticity of demand and the income obtained per visitor.
67 4.3.1 Price elasticity of demand
The response of consumers to a change in price is measured by the price elasticity of demand (Schiller, 1991). In this case price elasticity of demand refers to the percentage change in the number of visitors to the Park divided by the percentage change in tariffs.
E=
Where:
E = price elasticity a = percentage change in number of visitors to the Park. b = percentage change in tariffs (Lipsey and Steiner, 1981, 81)
Price elasticity indicates the percentage increase (positive values) or decrease (negative values) in the number of visitors to the Park for every corresponding percentage increase in tariffs. Table 4.4 shows that price elasticity between tariffs (both but and campsite tariffs) and the number of visitors to the Park is decreasing annually. In the early years Table 4.4
Price elasticity of tariffs. Period Investigated
Price elasticity'
Hut tariff
Campsite tariff
1988/89-1989/90
0,33
0,32
1989/90-1990/91
0,14
0,11
1990/91-1991/92
-0,08
-0,10
1991/92-1992/93
-0,09
-0,17
1992/93-1993/94
-0,21
-0,22
A positive price elasticity indicates that every percentage increase in tariffs is matched by an associated percentage increase in the number of visitors. A positive price elasticity therefore indicates that tariff increases did not have a detrimental effect on the number of visitors to the Park. On the other hand a negative price elasticity indicates that tariff increases lead to a decrease in the number of visitors to the Park.
68 (1988/89 to 1990/91) the increase in tariffs was matched by an associated increase in the number of visitors to the Park. Since 1990/91-1991/92 increasing tariffs have had a negative influence on the number of visitors. The price elasticity consequently decreased with each time period investigated, which indicates that as tariffs increase the number of visitors decreased. It should be noted that tariff increases will only increase total revenue received if price elasticity is greater than -1 as is the case during the whole study period. If the present rate of tariff increases, however, continues with an associated decrease in tourist arrivals, price elasticity will soon reach -1. As soon as a value of -1 has been reached the total revenue generated from tourism will decrease. In future, tariff increases should only take place after careful consideration of price elasticity.
4.3.2 Income obtained per visitor
The income obtained per visitor provides an indication of the average amount of money that each visitor spends on accommodation and entrance fees during a visit to the Kruger National Park. Income obtained per visitor is determined by dividing the accommodation and entrance fees collected by the total number of visitors (see Table 4.5). The income obtained per visitor has increased from R35-72 in 1988/89 to R102-28 in 1993/94. This represents a 186,34 % increase over a six year period, which is far in excess of the inflation rate for the same period. Table 4.5
Income obtained per visitor. Year
Income per visitor (R-c)
Annual % increase
Inflation rate (%)
1988/89
35-72
1989/90
42-01
17,61
14,90
1990/91
57-96
37,97
14,10
1991/92
80-97
39,70
15,70
1992/93
93-32
15,25
9,70
1993/94
102-28
9,60
9,00
69 It is evident from the discussion concerning perceptual tourist carrying capacity, that the number of visitors is negatively effected by increasing tariffs as these add to the costs associated with a visit to the Park. It should be borne in mind that the objective of a National Park is to conserve a national heritage for all the people of South Africa. Increasing tariffs have the effect of further limiting the availability of access to the lower income groups of the South African population. Although perceptual tourist carrying capacity is difficult to measure in relation to physical tourist carrying capacity, it may best be established by comparing the number of visitors in a particular year to those of the previous year. This indicates the degree to which the balance between costs and benefits have changed since the previous year.
4.4 NUMERIC LIMITS OF TOURIST CARRYING CAPACITY
In the field of wildlife management it is possible to place numeric limits on the carrying capacity of an area with regard to the number of animals that area can sustain. Placing numeric limits on the tourist carrying capacity of the Kruger National Park is not possible with any degree of accuracy, because of a lack of appropriate data and relevant research concerning tourist carrying capacity. The likelihood of placing numeric limits on the number of tourists is, therefore far more difficult. However, in order to provide the staff of the Kruger National Park with some answers relating to numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity, this will now be investigated. In the United States of America, research has been done into placing numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity. In the USA the numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity are referred to as "Standards of Capacity" and they are listed in Table 4.6. These relevant standards will be compared to the present conditions prevailing in the Kruger National Park.
70 American standards of capacity according to Burkert and Medlik (1981, 247).
Table 4.6
Type of Standard.
Density.
Scenic driving on major roads
2,49 vehicles per km.
Scenic driving on minor roads
1,24 vehicles per km.
Beach
273 people per km2.
Hiking and riding trails
25 people per km.
The above mentioned American standards are not all appropriate to this specific study, but have been included to make this important information available for further South African research into tourist carrying capacity. Only two of the above mentioned standards are applicable to the Kruger National Park and both of these relate to scenic driving. When comparing the standards of capacity concerning scenic driving on major and minor roads in the USA to scenic driving in the Kruger National Park, it should be remembered that in the Park the ratio of vehicles on tar to those on gravel is 3,97:1 (Bowland and Mills, 1994, 24). The average daily vehicle density in the Kruger National Park is (see Table 4.7) clearly illustrates that the average daily vehicle densities per kilometre in the Kruger National Park are considerably lower than the American standards. It should, however, be remembered that the actual vehicle densities will show fluctuations in both time and space depending on the number of visitors in the Park. Table 4.7
Average daily vehicle density in the Kruger National Park.
Year
. Tar road vehicle density per km
Gravel road vehicle density per km
1988/89
' 1,211
0,179
1989/90
1,259
0,183
1990/91
1,291
0,185
1991/92
1,313
0,185
1992/93
1,287
0,179
1993/94
1,239
0,170
71 Placing numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity in the Kruger National Park is not possible as a result of a lack of appropriate research, as well as a limited amount of relevant information being available. In the interim the American standards may, however, be used as guidelines.
4.5 CONCLUSION The above investigation has led to the conclusion that the physical tourist carrying capacity has not yet been reached. The perceptual tourist carrying capacity has, however, been reached and has resulted in a decrease in the number of visitors to the Park. A possible reason for this decrease can be attributed to increasing tariffs. It has also become evident that placing any numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity is not possible owing to a lack of available information in this regard.
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS
73 5.1 INTRODUCTION
In order to ensure the survival of the Kruger National Park it is essential that it becomes financially independent as it is foreseen that state grants to the National Parks Board will be cut in the near future. The major controlling factor influencing financial independence is the income generated by the number of tourists visiting the Park. The number of tourists visiting the Park, however, exhibits both temporal and spatial variability. This variability is controlled by a number of underlying factors such as school and public holidays, climatic factors, distance from the PWV, available accommodation, day visitor quotas and tariffs. Only after these variations and the reasons behind these variations are identified and understood, can effective tourism planning and management take place. This in turn should lead to financial independence. Therefore, in order to facilitate effective tourism planning and management, this study investigated the following: the number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park the occupation of accommodation in the Kruger National Park the tourist carrying capacity A short description of what was investigated as well as the most important conclusions will now be discussed.
5.1.1 The number of tourists visiting the Kruger National Park
The following three main elements were investigated: The annual arrival of visitors to the Park between 1968 and 1993, which identified and indicated the trend of annual visitors to the Park. This placed all further investigations regarding the number of visitors in context as it identified the long term trend in the number of visitors to the Park. The average weekly visitors to the Park between 1988 and 1994, was ascertained in order to arrive at an average pattern of visitors to the Park. This indicated the periods during the year which have to be effectively managed, as well as the periods which have to be aggressively marketed in order to attract more visitors.
74 The spatial variation of tourists visiting the Park, which established the proportional share of the total number of visitors that entered at each specific entry point. The entry points that receive the highest number of visitors were identified and the visitor numbers as these entry points will have to be controlled and managed effectively.
Conclusions: The annual number of visitors to the Park indicated a continual increase until 1990, thereafter a decrease was recorded. This indicated that some form of consumer resistance had commenced. The decrease may be attributed to increasing tariffs which have a detrimental effect on the number of visitors to the Park, because of the higher costs associated with a visit to the Park. The tariff for a 3-bed hut with a kitchen and bathroom in Berg en Dal increased from R84 per night in 1990 to R190 in 1993. A R106 increase in three years. A similar pattern of increases is evident in all the other forms of tariffs. The variation in the average weekly number of visitors to the Park is strongly influenced by school holidays. During school holidays there are between 4 000 and 10 000 more visitors per week, than during non-school holiday periods.
The
regression analysis (section 3.4.1) confirmed that a strong relationship exists between the number of visitors to the Park and school holidays.
As school holidays
experience a higher number of visitors it is essential that these periods are effectively managed. Non-school holiday periods in turn have to be marketed more vigorously in order to attract more visitors. The investigation into the spatial variation regarding the number of visitors to the Park indicated that the southern entry points of the Park account for approximately 70 % of the average annual visitors to the Park, whilst the northern entry points account for only 30 % of the total number of visitors entering the Park. This variation may be attributed to increasing distance from the PWV and higher temperatures in the northern areas of the Park. The southern areas of the Park therefore need more intensive management than is required by the northern areas. More visitors should be attracted to the northern areas of the Park through the provision of improved amenities and facilities.
75 5.1.2 The occupation of accommodation in the Kruger National Park
The following was investigated in order to attain an overall picture of the occupation of accommodation in the Park: The available accommodation which gave an indication of the number of but and bed accommodation that was available. This information was used in the calculation of the percentage occupation of available accommodation. The occupation of accommodation which illustrated the actual number of the various types of accommodation that was occupied. This information was used in the calculation of the percentage occupation of available accommodation. The average percentage occupation of available accommodation which indicated the percentage utilisation of the available accommodation. Knowledge of these trends could facilitate future decision making pertaining to the placement and expansion of existing accommodation and facilities.
Conclusions: It was found that the available but and bed accommodation increased as a result of the erection of additional accommodation within existing camps as well as the opening of a new main camp and four bushveld camps. The available huts increased from approximately 7 400 per week in 1989 to 8 900 in 1994, while the available beds increased from 22 000 per week in 1989 to 27 000 in 1994. This increase in available accommodation also increased the optimum physical tourist carrying capacity in respect of huts and beds. The occupation of accommodation revealed that higher levels of occupancy occurred during school holidays and lower levels during non-school holiday periods. The difference between the occupation of accommodation varied according to the type of accommodation being discussed. The biggest differences between school holidays and non-school holiday periods are listed below: huts occupied 3 500 beds occupied 13 000 campsites occupied 2 500 people camping 11 000 Here again the school holidays have to be effectively managed, while the non-school holiday periods should be marketed in order to increase the occupancy of accommodation
76 c)
The average percentage occupancy of available but and bed accommodation illustrated both temporal and spatial variations. The temporal variation related directly to school holidays. Between 5 % and 45 % higher average occupancies are experienced during school holidays than during the non-school holiday periods. The spatial variation indicated that up to 40 % higher occupancies occur in the southern areas than the northern areas of the Park. The southern areas of the Park have to be more effectively managed, while the northern areas should receive improved attractions and facilities that can be marketed in order to attract additional visitors.
5.1.3 Tourist carrying capacity
Three main elements were investigated in order to establish certain information pertaining to the tourist carrying capacity. The physical tourist carrying capacity was investigated in order to establish the optimum number of overnight and day visitors that can be accommodated in the Park. The actual percentage occupation of the available overnight accommodation and available day visitor quota was also established. The perceptual tourist carrying capacity which indicated the manner in which the balance between the costs and benefits associated with a visit to the Park, has changed during the study period (April 1988 to March 1994). The influence of increasing tariffs was also investigated, as this was regarded as one of the major costs associated with a visit to the Park and could lead to a decrease in the number of visitors. The possibility of placing numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity was also explored. This information is required by the National Parks Board in order to facilitate future tourism management.
Conclusions: a)
The available accommodation increased during the study period. The number of new huts available per week increased by approximately 200 between 1989 to 1994, while the number of available beds increased by approximately 700 over the same period. This indicates an increased optimum physical tourist carrying capacity in relation to available accommodation. This optimum was never reached during the study period,
77 not even during the busiest times, namely the school holidays. In fact the percentage occupation of available accommodation is decreasing annually. This may be attributed to increasing tariffs. The optimum for day visitors as indicated by a quota system was also never reached. This proves that more overnight and day visitors may be accommodated in the Kruger National Park throughout the year, particularly during non-school holiday periods. The decrease in the number of visitors to the Park leads to the conclusion that the costs associated with a visit to the Park outweigh the benefits. It was also found that increasing tariffs not only resulted in a decrease in the number of visitors, but also a decrease in the total revenue earned from tourism in the Park. The income obtained per visitor increased at an average annual rate of approximately 11% faster than the inflation rate for the study period. If this trend continues it will result in a further decrease in the number of visitors to the Park. The placement of numeric limits on tourist carrying capacity was not possible owing to a lack of appropriate data and research. American limits were, however, listed to serve as interim guidelines. This indicates the need for further tourism research in the Kruger National Park. All of the above investigations and conclusions indicate a multiplicity of factors that have to be taken into consideration in order to plan and manage tourism more effectively in the future.
5.2
SUGGESTIONS
The following suggestions will be made regarding the number of tourists to the Park, occupation of accommodation and the tourist carrying capacity in the Park. These all serve to improve and upgrade tourism management. The improved management should aim to : attract more visitors to the Park, increase the occupancy rates of existing accommodation, lower the costs and increase the benefits associated with a visit.
78 As the physical tourist carrying capacity has not yet been reached in respect of available accommodation or day visitor quotas, more visitors can be accommodated throughout the year particularly during non-school holiday periods. The perceptual tourist carrying capacity in turn has been reached in respect of costs and benefits. It is therefore of the utmost importance that the costs of a visit be decreased and/or the benefits associated with a visit to the Park be increased in order to attract more visitors. This may be done through amending tariffs and improving service and management of tourism in the Kruger National Park. The additional visitors that would be attracted will then increase both the utilisation of available accommodation and day visitor quotas. This will in turn increase the revenue generated through tourism which will increase the likelihood of the Kruger National Park becoming financially independent. "Adverse effects of tourism can be minimised, even removed, with more effective planning and better management of tourist attractions" (Foster, 1985, 26). The following suggestions all serve to facilitate improved tourism planning and management in the Kruger National Park: i.)
A larger variety of activities and accommodation alternatives should be offered to prospective tourists in order to cater for different preferences and income groups, which will in turn improve the quality of the recreational experience. These improvements should include the following: Self-guided road trails that educate visitors while travelling through the Park. Fencing-in sections of natural vegetation into camps so that visitors can experience the natural environment on self-guided walks. Guided day and night drives. Tree lookouts, blinds or hides can be set up in suitable locations, usually at game watering points, where visitors can view or photograph wild animals without being seen (Riney, 1982, 346). More affordable accommodation such as furnished tents, should be provided.
79 ii.)
.
The tariff structures in the Kruger National Park should be investigated and possibly revised, "as tariffs often become limiting factors, which exclude a large number of tourists who cannot afford the high prices charged" (Burkert and Medlik, 1981). The feasibility of a foreign visitor levy should also be considered so that foreign visitors subsidise domestic tourists. The tariff structure must take price elasticity into account as this will give an indication as to whether increases in tariffs actually led to an increase in total revenue generated. Tariff structures should balance two major factors namely, public access to national parks and the achievement of financial independence from state subsidies.
iii.) Tourism research should be promoted to achieve more efficient tourism management.
Possible areas for research include the following: Viability of new camps in order to accommodate more overnight visitors.* Siting of new entrance gates which would make the northern areas of the Park more accessible. The day visitor quota system. Update and improve the reservation system in order to maximise the occupation of available accommodation. Visitor impact on the ecological environment and facilities. Visitor perceptions and attitudes in order to provide the desired services and facilities (Peterson, 1983, 291). Control of excessive numbers of tourists through permits and restrictions (Hudman, 1980 and Alder and Glick, 1994). iv.) Environmental education should be upgraded because, "the more environmentally
aware tourists become, the more likely they are to behave in an ecologically responsible manner" (Mannion and Bowlby, 1992, 323). More complete visitor and interpretive centres with exhibits, presentations, lectures, literature and demonstrations must also be provided in camps in order to promote environmental awareness and education (Gunn, 1989 and Hugo, 1994).
80 v.)
Three alternative tourism management approaches as stated by Gill and Williams (1994, 213) should also be investigated in order to improve future tourism management: the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) approach, which is a land zoning system identifying the environmental setting and offering guidelines for appropriate activities and visitor experiences. the Limits to Acceptable Change (LAC) approach, which focuses on defining the desired conditions for an area and developing management strategies to achieve these goals. the Visitor Impact Management (VIM) approach, which identifies unacceptable visitor impacts, their probable causes and strategies for dealing with these impacts. The nationality of all foreign visitors should be identified and collected, with a view to promoting international marketing. Controlling access and movement of visitors within the Park by zoning certain areas as wilderness, intensive use or game-viewing and sightseeing areas (Burkert and Medlik 1981 and Riney, 1982).
viii)
The correct siting of new roads in order to minimise environmental degradation. The planning of roads should take into consideration the relief, the firmness of the soil, aesthetic advantages of an area, the distribution of animals and tourist attractions (Riney, 1982).
ix.)
The staff of the Kruger National Park should use the results of the regression analysis, in section 3.4, to make predictions relating to the number of visitors to the Park as well as bed occupancy rates in the Park. Predictions relating to the number of visitors could be useful in forecasting income generation, while predictions relating to bed occupancy rates could facilitate the placement of future camps in the Park.
81 5.3 CONCLUDING REMARKS The final conclusion therefore is that, unless the Park is more effectively managed, it cannot become financially independent and effective management cannot take place until a thorough understanding of tourism patterns (temporal and spatial) has been established. This study has improved both the understanding of tourism as well as increasing the base of available tourism research which will facilitate an improved level of tourism planning and management in the Kruger National Park. The improved planning and management will in turn facilitate the achievement of the financial independence towards which the Kruger National Park is striving.
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