The Nationwide Implementation of Pavement Prediction Modeling in New Zealand Authors:
T.F.P. Henning, N. Pradhan*, C.R. Bennett*, D.J. Wilson**
Transit New Zealand PO Box 740 Napier NEW ZEALAND
*HTC Infrastructure Management Ltd. PO Box 177 Kumeu, Auckland 1250 NEW ZEALAND
**The University of Auckland Dept. of Civil and Resource Engineering Private Bag 92019 Auckland NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64-6-835-1750 Fax: +64-6-835-0283 E-mail:
[email protected]. nz
Phone: +64-9-411-9098 Fax: +64-9-411-9096 E-mail:
[email protected] [email protected]
Phone: +64-9-373 7599 Fax : +64-9-373 7462 E-mail:
[email protected]
ABSTRACT During 1998 the New Zealand (NZ) RIMS Group (Road Information Management Systems) initiated Phase I of a national project titled “Implementation of Predictive Modelling for Road Management”. This representative group comprises members representing all levels of government in NZ including the funding agency. The project arose from the need to implement a credible system that would be used to predict future maintenance and rehabilitation needs for road networks on a long-term basis. An important aspect of this implementation process was to provide a system that was compatible and integrated with the existing RAMM1 inventory and road condition database system used previously for future works programming. The software package dTIMS2 was selected as the appropriate platform due to its inherent flexibility and its open system that allows the user to customize pavement deterioration models or the actual analyses framework. The project to date has been undertaken in three phases, which reflected the objective to get a system up and running as quickly as was possible. Phase I, which ran for 8 months, developed a preliminary system built around dTIMS which used available research and models and was interfaced with RAMM. During this phase, once a working setup was developed, pilot testing and training were performed with five road controlling authorities representing the range of likely users. The objectives of Phase II and Phase III were to refine the system, to address the issues identified during the pilot studies, as well as overseeing the fullscale implementation and training of users throughout NZ. The final system adopted comprised the following characteristics: • • • • •
1 2
It analyses all types of roads in NZ including urban, rural, motorway and gravel roads; Basic HDM-III models are used for pavement deterioration prediction plus some locally developed models; 15 specific treatment types are analysed and are categorised into four generic treatment classes namely Strengthening, Smoothing, Resurfacing and Gravel road treatments; Triggers developed for the performance standard analyses were based on local research and practices, and include triggers based on performance indexes and composite indexes; The system performs both performance standard and economic analyses. The former indicates the budget required to achieve a target level or standard of service; the latter are the actual work programmes under constrained budgets; and,
Road Assessment and Maintenance Management System Deighton's Total Infrastructure Management System
•
In order to assist in the integration with RAMM, supporting software was developed that acts as an interface between RAMM and dTIMS as well as to supply critical data that was lacking in RAMM.
A number of features of the system are unique, in particular the approach to economic analyses and the defining of performance based standards. It is also unusual in that the same system is applied by more than 70 road controlling authorities ranging from small cities to rural areas to major urban metropolis’. This paper introduces the system developed in NZ but also, and more importantly, will focus on the process of implementing such a system. In a very short period of time a credible national pavement management system was developed and implemented. The experiences of this process—both favourable and otherwise—will be useful for others undertaking such work. INTRODUCTION National Uniformity NZ is in a fortunate position to have a dedicated road fund, which is managed by the funding agency Transfund New Zealand (Transfund). This results in uniformity and consistency of approach in many aspects of the NZ road industry such as for the: • • •
Road Inventory and Condition database management of the road networks (RAMM); Substantiating of maintenance funds requests; and, Maintenance strategies to follow.
Therefore, it was also important for the implementation of a system of pavement deterioration modeling to predict future network condition and budget levels by defining long term service needs. Further, that there also be national uniformity and consistency in its approach in a similar manner to the RAMM system. Not only would this simplify the task and reduce the costs, but it also would improve: • • • •
Efficiency—through economies of scale; Consistency of application; Acceptance in the funding arena; and, Resourcing capability
The project was conceived in mid-1998 by the RIMS (Road Information Management Systems) Group. The RIMS Group is comprised of members representing local governments, Transit New Zealand (Transit) and Transfund. It operates under the Association of Local Governments of NZ (ALGENZ). FIGURE 1 illustrates the organizational chart for the RIMS Group. Territorial Authorities (Local Roads)
Transit NZ (State Highways)
Transfund NZ (Funding Agency)
Strategy Co-ordination Overview
RIMS Group
Working Group
Working Group
User Groups Consultants
Participants
Working Group
Specific Projects
Users
FIGURE 1: Organizational Chart of the RIMS Group
For some time, it had been recognized by the RIMS Group that there was a need to implement a credible system which would provide the facility to predict the future maintenance and repair needs for road networks. It was also important that this be fully integrated with the existing RAMM inventory management system and forward works programming tools. The focus was on an evolutionary development path, which would build upon the existing investment in road management systems. The software platform selected for this project was dTIMS (Deighton's Total Infrastructure Management System). The selection of this software was based on the flexibility of the system to incorporate existing models and where appropriate, to be able to develop user-defined models. The basic pavement deterioration models from HDM -III were selected as the initial base models to be used with the system. As dTIMS is only a shell, it is necessary that it be provided with the necessary models, analytical framework to satisfactorily analyze, and then optimize on a multi year basis, budget levels and treatment selections. It was also necessary to establish a front-end interface to provide dTIMS with the necessary data and required format from the existing RAMM database system. The RIMS Group in late 1998 appointed HTC Infrastructure Management Ltd. (HTC) to develop and manage the dTIMS system implementation on the basis of HTC’s previous experience with similar projects overseas and the close involvement of the team leader in developing HDM-4. HTC was supported in this work by: • • • •
Riley Partnership (U.K.); AFRICON Consultants (South Africa); Deighton Associates Ltd. (Canada); and, The University of Auckland.
Phased Implementation Process The project was designed to address the four development streams indicated in FIGURE 2 in a phased manner. INTELLECTUAL
DATA APPROPRIATENESS
RESEARCH
OPERATIONAL ADOPTION
Development of the ability to use the skills (training, upskilling)
Condition and inventory data suitable for modelling
Refinement of models based on appropriate data
Control mechanisms, consumption and utilisation of outputs
Principles understood
Most data are inappropriate
Research based on inappropriate data (concerned with principles)
Principles understood
Sensitivities understood
Control mechanisms established
Changed data collection and QA principles
Management methodologies can absorb outputs
Developing understanding
Ability to interpret outputs
Appropriate data becoming available
Model refinement capability based on appropriate data
OUtputs used in setting policy
True Modelling Capability
Ongoing Refinement
FIGURE 2: Streams Contributing Towards Modeling Capabilities It was also recognized that the development should follow a pragmatic approach with realism in the time frame set to achieve these goals. The intent was therefore not to provide a complete or final system to the users in the initial phase. But, rather to provide them with a preliminary working system first that could
be refined in later phases with their input and experience. This evolutionary process could then take account of the users needs, experience and knowledge, therefore ensuring that the final system would represent the best practice in NZ. All the stakeholders that ‘bought into’ the project by purchasing a national license therefore benefit from this. A realistic expectation was to achieve true modeling capability within a three to five-year timeframe. Currently the project has progressed to the end of the third phase and it is still believed that the original expectations and timeframe remains valid. Intellectual Development The preliminary dTIMS Setup was developed by HTC and the supporting project team. Once the preliminary setup had been developed, the process of building the intellectual development of the users was targeted through a programme of intensive training across NZ. In addition to this, an integral part of the project deliverables was the establishment of a dTIMS users helpdesk and supporting documentation. To date most of the key road asset managers in NZ have undertaken comprehensive training to varying technical levels, from management overview level to a technical users level. The training and technical report documentation are provided to the users through a number of delivery methods ranging from access via the website and CD's to hard copies. The methodology adopted of developing the intellectual capabilities concurrently with the users, has proven to be extremely successful. Establishment of Appropriate Data It was appreciated at the outset of the project that the road inventory and condition database (RAMM) used by most authorities in NZ did not necessarily provide sufficient data or data collected in an appropriate format for modeling purposes. Initial studies demonstrated that one of the main areas of concern was the condition description methodology used, which was different to the HDM condition description required in dTIMS. Parallel condition surveys were undertaken using both methods to establish necessary transfer functions. Software programs were then developed that translated the data from RAMM or other sources, into a suitable format that was required for modeling purposes in dTIMS. Establishing appropriate data was also one of the priority issues identified early on during the project implementation. Guidelines and recommendations on data collection best practice were provided through project documentation. Research (Refinement of Models Based on Appropriate Data) It was realized early during the implementation process that refinement of the dTIMS system by model definition and calibration could only be undertaken using appropriate data. Most of the required data items for this purpose were not initially collected or collected in the wrong format. It was therefore accepted that the research stream would lag behind the other development streams. The challenge was then to identify the research needs, their priorities and the timeframe required to prevent the other development streams advancing too fast in comparison with the research progress. For instance, it would be pointless undertaking research on the appropriateness of the deterioration models if the data required to prove this was not collected or measured, but with the wrong measurement methodology. Initial research included operational research rather than a pure theoretical or statistical approach. It would be better for authorities to commit to a less perfect approach initially, but start collecting the right data aiming at pure research at a later stage. The initial emphasis was more on progress rather than perfection. Therefore, in some cases the pavement deterioration models used in the preliminary setup were provided in a format that was based more on engineering judgment, rather than the results of theoretical research. This was due to the objective of getting a system up and running as quickly as possible. The expectation was that the difference in the outcome of results for network analysis using the preliminary setup when calibrated by experience and historical trends as a benchmark, is likely to be not too different, which will allow time for the refinement process to get the models right and experience proved this to be correct. Operational Adoption The last phase of the implementation process, being the operational adoption is one of the new challenges facing the national funding agency (Transfund) and some of the larger authorities such as Transit. With the production of "new" outputs based on dTIMS analysis for annual planning applications for the substantiating of funds, it is necessary to decide how the policy frameworks can validate the output
results. Furthermore, it is also important to establish the criteria and control mechanisms to monitor and audit outputs submitted by any third party, such as network consultants. PHASE I –THE PRELIMINARY SYSTEM The objective of Phase I was to get a preliminary system into the market place along with the necessary support mechanisms as soon as possible. It was envisaged that for credibility and to sustain interest, it was vital that a system be produced in the shortest timeframe possible. This would consist of a dTIMS setup for NZ with limited local calibration and the necessary interfaces to RAMM. A limited training programme would be developed along with software support. This was achieved by April 1999, five months after starting the project. Testing of the system was done to ensure that the system was working properly with the real data, and to refine it based on the feedback received from users. Setup of dTIMS with Pavement Deterioration and Road User Effect Models During the development of the NZ dTIMS setup, the same approach was adopted as used by the designers of the dTIMS. That is to keep the system as open as possible, which will allow the user to change and customize the system to suit the unique requirements of the relevant network. Setting up of dTIMS comprises mainly of: • Pavement deterioration models; • Treatment definition (see Table 1); • Treatment selection procedure; and, • Works effects resets; • Economic optimization function for maintenance programme generation. The following HDM-III pavement deterioration models were used: • Cracking; • Ravelling; • Potholes; • Rutting; and, • Roughness. A study regarding the preliminary calibration of these models for NZ condition was done prior to the initiation of the NZ dTIMS project. Additional models developed locally and used in the NZ dTIMS setup are: • Texture depth model; • Side force friction model; and, • Maintenance cost model. TABLE 1: Treatments used in the NZ dTIMS Setup Strengthening
Smoothing
Resurfacing
AC reconstruction
Rip and remake AC
Reseal with large chip
ST reconstruction
Rip and remake ST
Reseal with small chip
Thick AC overlay
Thin AC overlay
Thick granular overlay
Thin granular overlay Mill and replace with AC Recycle thick ST
Routine Routine
Works effect resets were based mainly on the expressions used in the HDM models. Analysis of the available data in the RAMM database was carried out to estimate the reset values for different road parameters after a given treatment. Supporting Software In order to provide the data for the dTIMS analysis, supporting software was developed as indicated in FIGURE 3. The software takes existing road condition from the RAMM database and other sources and combines it into a format required producing the dTIMS input file (dT2699). This process is discussed in subsequent paragraphs. Other Data
Strength Program
RAMM Database
Interface Program
dT2699
FIGURE 3: Relationship of the Supporting Software for Data Preparation The Interface Program The road inventory and condition data of the total road network of NZ are kept in the Road Assessement and Maintenance Management (RAMM) database. The RAMM program also uses a simple maintenance program development tool called the Treatment Selection Algorithm (TSA), the outcome being a suggested treatment programme based on a predetermined decision tree and the economic parameters based on empirical formulae. However, no prediction modeling was ever involved. This system has been used extensively in NZ since 1989 and was used for developing one to two year maintenance programs. Hence, historical RAMM data was available for research purposes and it was therefore essential to provide a seamless integration of the dTIMS system with the existing RAMM system. Not all of the data required for the NZ dTIMS system deterioration models were available in the existing RAMM database. In addition, the standard RAMM condition rating system used in NZ was quite different from the rating system used by the HDM models. Hence, an Interface software program application was developed to: • • • •
Convert the RAMM data to the required HDM format; Add default (global or differential) values to the field with missing values where required; Validate the data; and, Prepare a data input file (dT2699) for the dTIMS analysis.
The program was further enhanced with the possibility of being able to define the model calibration coefficients and treatment intervention levels. The Pavement Strength Program The pavement strength parameter can be one of the more important parameters in the HDM models through its impact on the rate of pavement deterioration. The pavement strength (modified structural number (SNC)) of an existing pavement can be estimated using various methods that utilize the parameters measured by different instruments and methodologies i.e. falling weight deflectometer (FWD), benkleman beam (BB), based on the CBR of the subgrade and individual layer thickness etc. To utilize the available strength data measured by the different methods, a stand-alone Strength software program application was developed. The system also provides a simplified method using a matrix with typical pavement designs in NZ and subgrade strength approximations for some of the smaller road controlling authorities that have limited strength data. The outcome of the program is an estimation of SNC with the best available data. The user could also assist with local experience and technical personnel that could estimate a typical pavement
design and the level of subgrade strength contribution for a given road section. The Strength program then assigns a predefined SNC value based on the combination of the two factors. The method has proven to be very successful and gives the result within an accuracy of 1 SNC. The Strength program therefore provides the user with the option of using the best available data at their disposal but also makes it possible to perform a dTIMS analysis for sections where the strength data are limited or non-existent. Training and Promotion From the outset the promotion and training of the end users for the nationwide implementation of predictive modeling was considered to be of critical importance. At the very start of the dTIMS project, seminars were organized in three different cities in NZ to help make the road asset managers of road controlling authorities aware of the benefits of predictive modeling in road planning. A Training Needs Assessment (TNA) was carried out in conjunction with The University of Auckland to determine the actual training needs and preferences of the dTIMS users. It was decided in the TNA to differentiate four levels of training: • Management level; • Technical level 1, • Technical level 2; and • Advanced level. Full training materials including the Training manuals and guidelines, were developed with many examples and tutorials to help step the user through the full procedure. The training programme and material were initially tested during the pilot study training programs, and then further refined for the mainstream training program. PHASE II – REFINEMENT OF THE SYSTEM Phase II of this project was started with the official release of the system in August 1999. Authorities soon displayed full commitment to the project and 75 licenses were issued within three months of the release. Emphasis in this phase was placed on training, provision of documentation and resolving issues identified during the previous phase. The subsequent paragraphs explain some of the more important aspects covered during this phase. Training Originally, it was anticipated that six training sessions should be held in different parts of the country. The demand and level of commitment was under estimated and at the end, 11 training sessions were held. The number of people trained at the different levels is listed in TABLE 2. TABLE 2: Detail on Training for Phase II Training Level Management Technical Level 1 Technical Level 2
Object of the Training Level A course giving an overview of the project aimed at managers. It does not focus on detailed technical issues but explains what the system can do. A full day course covers the beginning to intermediate level of understanding and use of the system. Full day course, going into more detail about the system. On completion with some practice and the assistance of the issued training materials, participants should be able to use the software for almost all applications likely to be encountered in NZ and be able to set up the software for specific applications
Number Attended 206 161 70
During the training three training volumes were provided including: • Volume 1 - Technical Reference Manual explaining basic principles in Pavement Asset Management and the NZ dTIMS setup; • Volume 2 - Software Users Guide that covers the background of the software and details on the calculations performed; and, • Volume 3 - Training volume with systematic instructions on the use of dTIMS and the supporting software. The training model was developed in conjunction with the University of Auckland. It was also refined based on feedback from the training sessions through a questionnaire completed by the participants. Helpdesk Part of the license agreement entitled each user to six hours of free helpdesk support. A helpdesk database was developed to log all queries and the solutions given to the questions. Most comments received during this phase, however, were related to software improvement. This feedback from the helpdesk was found extremely useful and contributed largely to the refinement of the system for this phase. System Enhancements The system enhancements focused on three main areas including: • Incorporation of specific needs from city councils; • Streamlining the analysis to better represent the funding approach used in NZ; and, • Pragmatic improvements of pavement deterioration models used in the system. Refinements for City Councils During the pilot study, it was established that the system did not address some of the specific needs for city councils. For some of these needs, complex and significant changes were needed. However, it was decided to solve most of the issues using a simple and pragmatic approach. It is believed that the system must now go through a settling down period to ensure that the basic functionality gives credible results. Later, when confidence in the results has grown, consideration of more complex and/or appropriate solutions can then be addressed. Some of the issues addressed in the Phase II enhancements were: • Adjustment of roughness values to take account of trench patches and service covers; • The use of special surface types to cater for noise levels and skidding areas; and, • Economic decisions between an overlay strategy that includes raising of channel and kerbing versus rip and remake actions. Funding Approach Due to the funding approach in NZ, it is a requirement that proposed maintenance strategies are substantiated by Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) based on a comparison against the do-minimum strategy. The do-minimum strategy is defined as the least cost strategy to maintain a road at the minimum level of service (3). By default dTIMS reports benefit cost ratios relative to a do-nothing alternative. Since it was difficult to solve this problem in dTIMS, it was decided to incorporate this function in a reporting software application1. It is believed that later enhancements of dTIMS will include this function. System Refinements It will take some time before any research or calibration studies can provide relevant results for further enhancements to the system. For this reason, the output and experience from the users was utilized for the initial improvement of pavement prediction models. Desk studies were undertaken using historic road condition data to perform initial calibration of the HDM III models, thereby establishing initial calibration coefficients. Some changes were also made to locally developed models based on historic data. Transit started with the data collection on calibration sections during May 2001. It is expected that the calibration sections will be monitored for a minimum period of five years.
1
The Reporter software application was developed for default output generation commonly used in NZ.
Specific Projects and Documentation The high priority research issues identified during the previous phase were addressed in the following studies and documentation: • dTIMS Data Issue Report; • Research Needs Assessments; • Calibration Guidelines; • Works Effect Study; and, • System Refinement of Phase II. • These issues are explained in more detail in the following sections. dTIMS Data Issue Report The first immediate need identified by the users was to address all of the data issues related to pavement prediction modeling in NZ. A comprehensive document, the ‘dTIMS Data Issues’ report was released in February 2000 and consisted of the following summary findings: • The general importance of data with regard to pavement deterioration modeling was emphasized; • Data accuracy levels were defined according to the HDM philosophy; • All data items needed in the NZ dTIMS system were described and shortcomings in the current process were highlighted; • Data collection methods were summarized and were appraised according to the appropriateness of methods for modeling purposes; and, • The users were alerted to the data sensitivity levels regarding the outcome of model prediction. This resulted in recommendations for the critical data items to be improved on a local authority level. The main recommendation of this report was that quality data appropriate to what is required is important for the successful implementation of pavement prediction capabilities into a Pavement Management System. It can therefore be seen as the core of the system as illustrated in FIGURE 4 (1).
Pavement Deterioration Modelling
Generation of Strategies
Data
Outputs
Optimise Programme for Available Funding
FIGURE 4: Components in the dTIMS Analysis Process Research Needs Assessments Currently, most of the roads related research in NZ is funded by Transfund NZ through an established annual procedure for contestable and competitive research fund allocation. Researchers submit proposals of intended research topics describing the goals, deliverables, costs and benefits of the programme to Transfund. It was expected that much of the research topics in this next round (2000/2001) would be relevant to predictive pavement deterioration modeling. Therefore, one of the important tasks for this
phase was to identify the needs resulting from this project with regard to pavement deterioration modeling and the refinement of the NZ dTIMS setup. The objective of this task was not only focusing on the identification of the need but also to give priorities for the individual research topics. One of the aspects that made this task particularly successful was the cooperative approach taken between the RIMS Group, HTC, Transfund and the research and consulting industry. All of the stakeholders involved realized that there was no benefit in competing against each other for these projects. The challenge was rather to ensure that the priority research topics were addressed first. Some of the priority tasks identified are showed in Table 3 below. TABLE 3: Priority Research Needs Established for the dTIMS Project Research Topic
Description
Sensitivity of Input Parameters
The sensitivity of input parameters is evaluated in terms of the influence it has on the outcome of the analysis. The sensitivity analysis would be the base study to guide policy development for intended calibration and model development research to be performed.
Development of Nationwide Calibration Studies
This topic will form the guidelines for the nationwide calibration to be performed. Some of the issues it will address include:
Appropriateness of HDM - 4 Models in NZ
Together with the calibration studies, the HDM - 4 models will be investigated to establish the appropriateness of use in NZ.
Unsealed Road Study
Limited research has been performed on unsealed roads in NZ. This study is therefore not only targeting local calibration but also the evaluation of various models to be utilized in NZ.
• • •
Establishing a framework for site selection, section length and number; Establishing national calibration sites; and, Developing an operational framework for the monitoring of the calibration sites.
Calibration Guidelines The object of the Calibration Guideline is to provide local authorities with a procedure of good practice to perform calibration on their networks. The intent of this calibration is not to change model forms or develop new models but only to establish local calibration factors for the models presently being used. Therefore, the nationwide calibration mentioned in the previous section is aimed at providing global coefficients for a limited amount of climatic regions in the country (4-6 regions). The local calibration is therefore aimed at building on this and refining coefficients for local conditions and practices. The guidelines specifically address the following topics: • Definition of calibration levels according to HDM philosophy; • Description of calibration experience gained elsewhere (e.g. Australia and South Africa); • Description of the calibration process including data collection and site establishment; and, • The calibration analysis process and examples. Works Effects Study Due to the limited research performed on work effects of varying treatments in the past in NZ, the need was identified and the research performed in Phase II of the project. Both urban and rural road sections were surveyed for roughness and speed, both before and after rehabilitation treatments were constructed on these sections. Initial analyses have shown roughness improvements between 9 - 60 percent due to the various rehabilitation actions. System Refinement of Phase II A similar approach was followed during this phase as with the previous phase, with regard to system refinement. This consisted of a preliminary release of the new setup followed by feedback from the users. All comments, experience and specific studies were utilized in establishing a refined setup. Before releasing the system to all users it was tested by the pilot testers (5 groups each consisting of a partnership
between consultants and road controlling authorities). The system was then subsequently audited by an independent reviewer to ensure that the system and supporting documentation correlated appropriately. PHASE III – FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SYSTEM Where to From Here? The success of the implementation process has brought its own challenges. The main challenge being the complexity of the overall system and the rapid rate of change that the evolutionary process has brought to bear on end users. For these reasons, it is important that the next phase of the implementation of predictive pavement deterioration modeling in NZ goes through a more settled stage and a much slower rate of change. The RIMS Group recognized that the development of the dTIMS system has evolved at a much faster rate than users have been able to assimilate. Therefore, the next phase of the project has been planned to allow for end users to ‘catch up’ and become proficient with the intricacies of the dTIMS system with little further setup refinements. The phase III tasks proposed for the period from June 2000 to June 2001 are outlined in the following section. Achievements This phase continues the evolutionary process working towards the long-term implementation of the dTIMS System. While the system still requires model calibration and adaptation, it has been recognized that it is important that a settling down period be allowed for during this stage to enable: • Users to become proficient with the system developments from Phases I and II; and • Long term regional calibration sites were established which enabled the data acquisition required for calibration and /or adaptation of the models. The models cannot be much further refined without better and more appropriate data as explained earlier and the right data needs to be collected for this purpose. In Phase III (1 July 2000 to 30 June 2001) the following specific objectives or outcomes have been achieved: • Further adjustment of the dTIMS system where necessary to incorporate user feedback and research results; • Development of further training materials and courses to the Advanced Level course; • Providing user training that ranges from refresher courses, new mainstream courses, new advanced level training and specific on site user defined training; • Guidelines and documentation especially for the purposes of data collection and calibration; • Systems to ensure adequate quality assurance and auditing systems; • Undertaking and supporting specific research to improve the predictive modeling as outlined in the Research Needs and Requirements report; and, • Continued end user support, including facilitating five regional one-day users meetings throughout NZ. FUTURE NEEDS An Evolutionary Process The original implementation plan had highlighted the need for an evolutionary implementation process that took the users along with the development team of the project. The main reasons being to ensure that the system developed was utilized by the users in as short a time frame as was possible, as well as that the users needs, collective wisdom, and experience was incorporated into the system. An additional benefit was that the consultative approach adopted by the RIMS Group (and facilitated by the project team) would help to ensure that the end users 'buy into' the concept early on. They had all been invited to be involved with the development process and would then actually help to ‘sell’ the vision nationally for the RIMS Group. The process in which the project team developed a setup, undertook pilot studies with training, incorporated feedback into the new setup and then undertook mainstream users training with updated materials has ensured that a large proportion of the NZ users are now well aware of the system and its benefits. As the third phase of the original implementation project is on target for successful completion by the end of June 2001, this approach has proven to be extremely successful.
However, the chosen process, due mainly to its success, has raised other challenges that now require addressing in some way. Some of the difficulties will with time sort themselves out while others require specific strategies to combat them. These issues are discussed below: Speed of Changes Due to a system being developed relatively quickly and that it was an evolutionary development process meant that many users ‘felt’ as if they never really became familiar with the system and the intricacies of it before it changed again. This was not so much of a problem to the ones that were part of the pilot study groups as they mostly saw the need for the changes. They were often a significant factor involved in the change process and therefore gained a better overall understanding of it. Repetition and Time Key to Proficiency Many users and especially road controlling managers from small authorities that had the dTIMS analysis as only a minor part of their day-to-day duties, have struggled to come to terms with the full system. They could not dedicate enough time to the follow up learning provided at the training courses. As with any complex software programs, if you don’t use it again quickly after training you lose most of the knowledge you learn. This is especially so when the dTIMS system incorporates a number of software program applications. This becomes even more pertinent if, when they come back to do some work on it, the system is different due to further refinements. This was not so much of a problem for technical attendees from the major consultants. Their desire to be involved in downstream consulting work with dTIMS meant they tended to launch themselves with vigor at the training and pilot testing and therefore became proficient in its use. Beyond Phase III Implementation of a predictive modeling system is a long-term process. Ongoing input after Phase III would still be required in the areas of: • Model development and Refinements: Based on the feedback from the users and research into pavement deterioration modeling. • Calibration: Support will be required for local calibration of the model and customization of the setup. • User Training: Training programs would continue. • User Support: The system will require ongoing support. This is more than just standard software support; this will entail support for the technical models, which will need to be enhanced to reflect the results of calibration studies or research programs. • Ongoing Model Research: Support and guidance would be given to research aimed at improving the system. It is important to appreciate that it will take several years for the system to be completely accepted and for the system to be fully functional by all users. The challenges exist however, and without proper planning and management of the challenges, the project objectives and outcomes could become compromised with the systems potential never being realized. CONCLUSIONS During 1998 the NZ road controlling authorities started with the nationwide implementation of Predictive Modeling for Road Management. The project to date has been undertaken in two phases, which reflected the objective to get a system up and running as quickly as was possible. Phase I, which ran for 12 months, developed a preliminary system built around dTIMS which used available research and models and was interfaced with RAMM. During this phase, once a working setup was developed, pilot testing and training were performed with five road controlling authorities representing the range of likely users. The objectives of Phase II and Phase III were to refine the system, to address the issues identified during the pilot studies as well as to oversee the full-scale implementation and training of users throughout NZ. The objectives and outcomes of all three phases were successfully achieved. Although the focus for the two phases were somewhat different, the process stayed similar as shown in FIGURE 5. The process illustrated indicates the cooperative approach and interaction that took place with the users of the system.
Some of the deliverables of this project included: • A system that can analyze all types of roads in NZ including urban, rural, motorways and unsurfaced roads; • Prediction models based on HDM – III and locally developed models such as texture and Maintenance Costs; • Economic and Performance standard analysis; • Supporting software that assists in the compiling of the dTIMS input file (dT2699) and generates user defined outputs; • An intensive training program supported by comprehensive training materials (User Guides and Manuals) • Specific tasks to resolve modeling related issues such as data, research and calibration. To date the project could be regarded as successful and some of the attributes to the success included the: • Commitment from the industry including the funding agency; • A cooperative approach followed by all stake-holders; • A pragmatic approach used in the implementation. “Providing a working system first and refining it at a later stage”; • An implementation development path that followed four streams: Intellectual development; Appropriateness of data; Research; Operational Adoption; and, • Consistency and uniformity followed by all users during the implementation. Phase I
Phase II, III +
Initial System Development Release System To industry Specific Projects and Reports Pilot Testing and training
Training
Feedback from the Pilot Testers Feedback from Users
Refine System
FIGURE 5: Process Used for Phases of Implementation Project In one of the newsletters released by this project the RIMS Group stated the following (2):
“Keeping it simple and pragmatism have been key motivating principles that have underpinned progress to date. We believe it is essential that these principles remain prevalent during the full implementation. Progress to date has been achieved through capturing all opportunities that have arisen. It is important that the momentum of the project be maintained so we continue to progress.” Phase III of the project continued the momentum gained in the first two phases of the dTIMS implementation process, however the focus was to some degree shifted from model development and refinement towards ensuring that the users become more proficient in the use of the dTIMS system developed. Any changes to the setup were less of model refinements and more like minor adjustments based on feedback gained from users. An important part of this phase was to facilitate regional calibration sites to be established and to provide guidelines for appropriate data collection procedures and measurements. The data collected in this phase will help provide the information required for subsequent phases of calibration and adaptation of the models. The training and user support mechanisms in this phase was also increased to ensure both existing and new users work their way towards proficiency. A new advanced level training course was developed and provided for a relatively small group of prospective dTIMS experts. A number of refresher courses were also provided and regional user group conferences established and facilitated. There is still much to be done but it is strongly believed that NZ road authorities are well on their way to ‘true’ modeling capabilities.
REFERENCES 1.
HTC (2000a). dTIMS Data Issue Report. Report DT/00/1. HTC Infrastructure Management Ltd., Auckland.
2.
HTC (2000b). Implementation of Predictive Modeling for Road Management. News Letter 6. HTC Website www.htc.co.nz HTC Infrastructure Management Ltd., Auckland.
3.
Transfund New Zealand, (1997), Project Evaluation Manual, Wellington, New Zealand.
