Weekly Economic Update

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE November 27, 2017 CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINES FOR NOVEMBER

The University of Michigan’s monthly gauge of how households perceive current and future economic conditions ended the month at a mark of 98.5. Compared to the 100.7 final October reading, this was a disappointment. Still, the index was up 5.0 points year-over-year.

LEADING INDICATORS TAKE A MAJOR LEAP After a decline of 0.2% in September, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators soared 1.2% for October. This was double the gain forecast in a Reuters survey of economists. This surge in the 10-component index may signal an impressive fourth quarter.

A NEW MILESTONE FOR A MARKET BENCHMARK Stocks regained their momentum in time for Thanksgiving. During an abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 settled above 2,600 for the first time, closing at 2,602.42 Friday and going +0.93% across three-and-a-half days. Weekly gains also came for the Nasdaq Composite (1.57%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.86%). The Nasdaq was up 5.07% month-over-month as of Friday’s closing bell. THIS WEEK: Monday, the Census Bureau presents data on October new home sales. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and the October Conference Board consumer confidence index both are reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen testifies on the U.S. economic outlook in Congress, and investors also consider the second federal government take on Q3 GDP, a new Fed Beige Book, and the NAR’s latest pending home sales index. October personal spending data, the October PCE price index, and a new initial unemployment claims report are made public on Thursday. The Institute for Supply Management releases its November snapshot of the U.S. factory sector Friday.

VALUE AS OF 11/24/17

VALUE AS OF 12/31/16

S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL NASDAQ AVERAGECOMPOSITE INDEX MSCI EAFE INDEX BARCLAYS AGGREGATE BOND FED FUNDS TARGET INDEX 6-MONTH US TREASURY YIELD 2-YR US TREASURY YIELD 10-YR TREASURY YIELD CRUDE OIL ($/BARREL)

2,6042.42 23,557.99 6,889.16 2,022.86 103.25 1.25% 1.45% 1.75% 2.34% $58.95

2,238.83 19,762.60 5,383.12 1,684.00 102.70 0.75% 0.62% 1.20% 2.45% $53.72

GOLD ($/OZ.)

$1,287.30

$1,151.70

BENCHMARKS

ONE WEEK TOTAL RETURN 0.93% 0.86% 1.57% 1.88% 0.19%

YTD TOTAL RETURN 18.36% 21.83% 27.98% 23.22% 3.39%

1-YEAR TOTAL RETURN 20.36% 26.33% 27.91% 27.67% 3.64%

WEEKLY TIP Some investors play a guessing game; they watch Wall Street and try to pick winners. Other investors recognize that diversification may improve their chances of holding shares in such companies without a lot of guessing. DID YOU KNOW? A human will eat, on average, 70 assorted insects and 10 spiders during their lifetime while sleeping.

W. Kelly Montgomery, AIF®, APMA®, Vice President / Senior Portfolio Manager

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This material was prepared by the author and does not necessarily represent the views of the Bank of the Bluegrass & Trust Company, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.