VALIDATION OF LAIC MODEL WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF ISSI PROJECT “MULTIINSTRUMENT SPACE-BORNE OBSERVATIONS AND VALIDATION OF THE PHYSICAL MODEL OF THE LITHOSPHERE-ATMOSPHEREIONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE COUPLING” Sergey Pulinets Space Research Institute Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russia
[email protected]
ISSI Team: D. Ouzounov, K. Hattory, M.Parrot, Tiger Liu, V. Tramutoli, A. Namgaladze, A.Krankowski
OUTLINE Universal character of LAIC Ionization as a source of the chain Thermal effects validation Ionospheric effects validation and modeling Cconnection with seismology Bipolar character of the ionization effects Integrated parameters Conclusions
Jet-streams
VLF noises trapping, cyclotron interaction Particle precipitation
Air pressure drop
Field-aligned irregularities in magnetosphere
Most recent view of the LAIC conception OLR anomalies
Air temperature growth
Earthquake clouds formation
Latent heat release
Convective ions uplift, charge separation, drift in anomalous EF
Relative humidity drop
Ions hydration– formation of aerosol size particles
Electric field effects within the ionosphere Atmospheric electric field growth
Air conductivity change
Air ionization by α-particles – product of radon decay Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011 Faults activation – permeability changes Gas discharges including radon emanation
IONIZATION
3
MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF IONIZATION
Thermal anomalies
Ionospheric anomalies
Latent heat release
Boundary layer conductivity modification
Ion induced nucleation
Ionization
THE SOURCES OF AIR IONIZATION Solar radiation Natural and anthropogenic radioactivity Particle precipitation (impact ionization) Electric discharges of different origin
TESTS CONDUCTED FOR THERMAL EFFECTS Radon Nuclear power plant (Three-Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima) Nuclear explosion(Northern Korea, Semipalatinsk) Natural fossil nuclear reactor (Gabon, Oklo) Thunderstorm discharges (Katrina) Galactic cosmic rays (Katrina) Laboratory experiments (Japan, Poland) Artificial coronal discharge in open environment (Mexico)
RADON PRECURSOR ENERGETICS
Chernogor, 2012
In natural conditions the radon ionization rate is qi0 ≈ 107 m-3s-1 Before earthquake it can reach qi ≤ 1010 m-3s-1 The ionized layer is no more than 10 m, but because of the turbulent diffusion the thickness of ionization layer can increase up to 1 km and more The power of such precursors is: Pq= εiqiSeq∆zt where ∆zt = (Dt∆t)1/2 – the thickness of the layer with radon reached by ∆t as a result of the turbulent diffusion, Dt is a coefficient of turbulent diffusion. Under Dt = 102 m2/s, ∆t = 105 s we will have ∆z ≈ 103 m. For L’Aquila earthquake with M=6.3 we will have the area of earthquake preparation zone S = 8⋅1011 m2, qi = 1010 m-3s-1 what gives Pq= 4⋅107 W or Eq = Pq∆t = 4⋅1012 J
IONOSPHERIC ANOMALIES TESTED WITH AIR CONDUCTIVITY CHANGES Nuclear weapon tests in atmosphere Nuclear power plant (Three-Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima) Nuclear explosion(Northern Korea, Semipalatinsk) Natural fossil nuclear reactor (Gabon, Oklo) Thunderstorm discharges (Katrina) Volcano eruptions Sand storms
WHAT’S NEW?
Dobrovolsky 2009
Irregularity disruption media property changes – coincides with short-term precursory period
GUTENBERG-RICHTER RELATION AND B-VALUE PHYSICAL MEANING Frequency-Magnitude Relation (FMR)
log N(M) = a – b⋅M
N is cumulative number of earthquakes in the given area with the magnitude larger than M, a and b – are constants
Papadopoulos et al., 2010 Drop of b-value is a manifestation of transition from elastic to brittle deformation Rozhnoi et al., 2010
DOBROVOLSKY ET AL. RELATION AND ITS PHYSICAL MEANING R = 100.43M km Dobrovolsky et al., 1979 Earthquake preparation zone
R = 100.44M km Gelfand et al., 1976
Critical (earthquake activation) zo
Toutain and Baubron, 1998
IMPLICATION OF DOBROVOLSKY RELATION it is a maximum distance of possible precursor registration to the earthquake epicenter of given magnitude dynamic range of deformation is fixed and does not depend on magnitude: from 10-8 to complete rupture precursors intensity per area unit does not depend on magnitude radon emanation area follows Dobrovolsky relation and area of increased emanation depends on magnitude the thermal and ionospheric anomalies will follow the size of the Dobrovolsky zone
EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION ZONE FOR L’AQUILA M6.3 EARTHQUAKE
EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION ZONE FOR GUJARAT M7.7 EARTHQUAKE
BOTH FOR SCALING
CORRECTION TO THE WATER VAPOR CHEMICAL POTENTIAL –DIRECT INDICATION OF ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES CONNECTION WITH THE TECTONICS Registered 2 days before the M7.8 Saravan earthquake happened on 16 April 2013
BIPOLAR CHARACTER OF PRECURSORY EFFECTS
COOK STRAIT ∆U DYNAMICS
5 days before
Epicenter M6.5 21.07.2013
19
