Assignment 1

Place: Wind Farm in Tamil Nadu

Assignment 1 Design for Renewable energy systems Date: 29th September 2014

Sarmad Shakeel/Abhishek Ghimire

SUSCOS_M,2014

2014

Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................ ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ iii 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Importance of Renewable Energy ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Sources of renewable energy .............................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Renewable Energy Worldwide ........................................................................................................... 1 2. Wind Energy Status ................................................................................................................................ 3 2.1 Worldwide status ................................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 India Status.......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2.1 Wind Power Capacity in India: .................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 Current Status............................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Reassessment of wind potential in India ...................................................................................... 8 2.3 Maharashtra....................................................................................................................................... 10 3. Wind Energy Demand and Government Policy:................................................................................ 10 4. Payback Period...................................................................................................................................... 12 5. Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) .................................................................................................. 13 5.1 LCOE-Onshore Wind Energy ........................................................................................................... 13 5.2 LCOE-Other technologies ................................................................................................................ 13 5.3 LCOE Calculations: .......................................................................................................................... 14 6. Environmental Impact.......................................................................................................................... 15 7. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 16 Annex-1 ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 References ................................................................................................................................................... 19

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List of Figures FIGURE 1 POWER GENERATION FROM DIFFERENT RESOURCES (SOURCE: REN21 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 2014) ........2 FIGURE 2 SOURCE: BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035 ............................................................................................................2 FIGURE 3 GLOBAL INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY 1996-2013 (SOURCE: HTTP://INDIANWINDPOWER.COM/NEWS_VIEWS.HTML#TAB6) .....3 FIGURE 4 WIND POWER DENSITY MAP OF INDIA AT 50M ...............................................................................................5 FIGURE 5 INSTALLED CAPACITY VS YEAR (SOURCE: MINISTRY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA) ...................................7 FIGURE 6 RESULTS OF WIND POTENTIAL REASSESSMENTS IN CHINA & US ...................................................................9 FIGURE 7 ON-SHORE DEVELOPABLE WIND POTENTIAL IN INDIA .................................................................................10 FIGURE 8 BREAKUP OF INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY (2013)..................................................................11 FIGURE 9 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY BY REGION (SOURCE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL) ............................................................13

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List of Tables TABLE 1 ESTIMATION OF INSTALLABLE WIND POWER POTENTIAL AT 80 M LEVEL IN INDIA ................................................................6 TABLE 2 WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) IN INDIA (UP TO 31.05.2014) .......................................................................8 TABLE 3 PAYBACK PERIOD CALCULATIONS .................................................................................................................12 TABLE 4 LIFECYCLE CO2 EQUIVALENT ........................................................................................................................15 TABLE 5 CALCULATION OF TOTAL INVESTMENT COST FOR THE INSTALLMENT OF 335.35 MW WIND POWER IN THE LOCATION OF MAHARASHTRA, INDIA. ................................................................................................................. 17 TABLE 6 CALCULATION OF TOTAL RETURNED AMOUNT AFTER INSTALLMENT OF 335.35 MW WIND POWER IN THE LOCATION OF MAHARASHTRA, INDIA. ................................................................................................................. 18

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1. Introduction Renewable energy is that energy which come from natural sources which are constantly replenished on human scale. 1.1 Importance of Renewable Energy Renewable energy is important because of the benefits it provides. Some of the benefits are: 

Environmental Benefits Renewable energy technologies serve as clean sources of energy that have a much lower impact on environment than conventional energy generation methods



Unlimited Energy Renewable energy resources will never come to an end. Other sources of energy are finite and one day they will be depleted.



Employments and the Economy When any new renewable energy source is built, it creates lot of jobs and most important it has no demands for fuels.

1.2 Sources of renewable energy Following are major sources of renewable energy available worldwide.       

Wind Energy Solar Hydropower Geothermal energy Biomass Biofuels Ocean ( Tidal Power)

1.3 Renewable Energy Worldwide Global decline in resources of fossil fuels, their increased prices and their damage to environment has led the World to shift on renewable energy resources. Following indicators clearly show how World is shifting to renewable energies. Wind Power is one of big contributors to production of renewable energy.

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Figure 1 Power generation from different resources (Source: REN21 Global Status report 2014) Following trend shows that how World is shifting its production of power from fossil fuels to renewable energy resources.

Figure 2 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035

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2. Wind Energy Status “Wind power is the transformation of wind energy into some useful form of energy by using wind turbines to generate electrical power, windmills for producing mechanical power, and wind pumps for driving out water.”1

2.1 Worldwide status Wind energy is one of the better renewable energy which is adopted all over the world in promptly nowadays. There is increasing order of the installment of wind power up to 2012 and some quantity of instalment of wind power is decreased in 2013. According to the global annual installed wind capacity record, in the year of 2013 more 35.467 GW wind capacity added on previous capacity of the wind energy all over the world. According to the world wind energy report 2008, USA leading with the total capacity of 25.17 GW and India in the fifth position with the total installed capacity of 9.587 GW.

Figure 3 Global Installed Wind Capacity 1996-2013 (source: http://indianwindpower.com/news_views.html#tab6)

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3

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind power

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2.2 India Status In 2012, despite of the fact that global economy faced major crisis, India’s electricity demand kept on rising. But still electricity shortages are common and 40% of population has no access to modern energy facilities. India’s electricity demand has been projected to be more than triple between 2005 and 2030. Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projected the need for 350-360GW of total generation capacity by 2022 in National Electricity Plan released in 2012. Despite of major capacity additions over last few years, power still struggles to keep up with demand. India started its production of wind power in 1990’s and now been rank 5th in world for Wind power generation. 1 India is the 3rd largest annual wind power market in the world, and provides numerous business opportunities for both domestic and foreign investors. Indian wind power sector experienced record annual growth in 2011 with the addition of more than 3 GW of new installations. Long-term policy and regulatory framework at the central and state levels provided attractive incentives that have played a decisive role in achieving this goal. Wind power is now been accepted as India’s major alternative to electricity generated by fossil fuels.

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RENEWABLES 2014, GLOBAL STATUS REPORT, REN21

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Figure 4 Wind power Density Map of India at 50m

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2.2.1 Wind Power Capacity in India: According to the National Institute of Wind Energy (Formally known as Centre for wind energy technology), India has the 49,130 MW for 50 m hub height and 102,788 MW for the 80 m hub height. The states wise potentiality of wind power with respect to 50 and 80 m height is shown in table1 .This figure was adopted by the government as the official estimate. Table 1 Estimation of Installable Wind Power Potential at 80 m level in India

States Andaman & Nicobar Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Dieu Damn Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jharkhand Jammu & Kashmir Karnataka Kerala Lakshadweep Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Nagaland Orissa Pondicherry Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Uttarakhand Uttar Pradesh West Bengal

Estimated potential (MW) 365 14497 236 112 144 314 4 35071 93 64 91 5685 13593 837 16 2931 5961 56 82 16 1384 120 5050 98 14152 534 1260 22 102788

Total

1

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http://www.cwet.tn.nic.in/html/departments_ewpp.html

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2.2.2 Current Status India is fifth largest wind power producer worldwide. Coal and gas are popular sources and account for 58% and 9%, share, respectively. The country has been rapidly adding capacity over last few years with total installed power capacity to 223GW in Fiscal year 2013 from 98GW in Fiscal year 1998. Following graph shows total installed wind capacity in India for past few years.

Figure 5 Installed capacity vs year (Source: Ministry of renewable energy, Government of India)

Current status of wind power production in India is 21264 MW (as on 31.05.2014) according to Ministry of renewable energy, Government of India. Following table show the production of Wind Energy in India state wise.

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Table 2 Wind power Installed capacity (MW) in India (up to 31.05.2014)

State

Andhra Gujar Prades at h

Karnat Kera aka la

Mahara Rajasth shtra an

Tamil Nadu

West Othe Beng rs al

Total

2.0

Madhy a Prades h 23.2

Up to March'2002 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-2013 2013-2014

93.2

181.4

69.3

400.3

16.1

877.0

1.1

3.2

1666.8

0.0 6.2 21.8 0.45 0.80 0.0 0.0 13.6 55.4 54.1 202.10 753

6.2 28.9 51.5 84.60 283.95 616.36 313.6 197.1 312.8 789.9 208.30 3414

55.6 84.9 201.5 143.80 265.95 190.30 316.0 145.4 254.1 206.7 201.70 2409

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.50 16.5 0.8 7.4 0.0 0.0 55

0.0 0.0 6.3 11.40 16.40 130.39 25.1 16.6 46.5 100.5 9.60 439

2.0 6.2 48.8 545.10 485.30 268.15 183.0 138.9 239.1 416.5 288.50 4098

44.6 117.8 106.3 73.27 111.90 68.95 199.6 350.0 436.7 545.7 614.00 2820

133.6 371.2 675.5 857.55 577.90 380.67 431.1 602.2 997.4 1083.5 174.60 7276

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

242.0 615.2 1111.7 1716.17 1742.05 1663.32 1484.9 1564.6 2349.2 3196.7 1698.8 21264

2.2.3 Reassessment of wind potential in India Recent reassessments carried out in different countries like US and China shown much higher potential for wind energy due to improved technology in shape of higher efficiency, increased hub heights and big sizes of wind turbines. The official wind potential estimates (expressed in capacity terms) used by China have recently increased by 800% and those of the U.S. by 50% (see Figure 6)

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Potential (GW) Wind Energy Potential in GW

14,000 12000 12,000 10,000 8000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

2380 297

0 China

US

Country Earlier Estimate

Estimated after Reassessed

Figure 6 Results of Wind potential Reassessments in China & US

Reassessing wind potential, Estimates for India: Economic & Police Implication Research paper published in March-2012 by International Energy Studies, Environmental Energy Technologies Division and Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory (LBNL) reassessed and stated that the total techno-economic on shore wind potential in India at three hub-heights-80m,100m and 120m. With assuming a turbine density of 9 MW/km2 and the minimum capacity factor of 20%, the total wind potential in India ranges from 2,006 GW at 80 m hub-height to 3,121 GW at 120 m hub-height. This techno-economic potential does not include the potential of lands that are difficult to use for wind power generation such as poor quality wind areas (wind power density < 200 W/m2), areas having slopes greater than 20 degrees, areas of elevation 1,500m and above, forests, snow-covered land, water bodies, built-up areas, and protected areas. These assessments are around 20 times the present official estimate of wind energy potential in India (estimated at 80m hub height) which shown in figure 2 ((LBNL), March-2012).

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Techno-Economical Wind Power Potential(GW)

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On-Shore Developable Wind Potential in India 3500 3000 1033

2500 794

2000 543 1500 1000 1462

2088

1811

500 0 80 m

100 m

120 m

Hub-Height 201>WPD>250W/m2

WPD>251 W/m2

Figure 7 On-Shore Developable Wind Potential in India

2.3 Maharashtra Maharashtra state is located in the South-West of the India. Maharashtra is third only to Tamil Nadu and Gujarat in terms of wind power generating state in India. Its total wind power capacity is 5961 MW and current wind power production is 4098MW. Installation of wind power is going on rapidly in Maharashtra because at the end of 2012, it installed only 2733.35 MW and 1364.65 MW wind power capacity is added up to mid of 2014. Out of 5 biggest Wind farms in India, 3 of them have been setup in Maharashtra with biggest Brahmanvel windfarm having capacity of 528MW.

3. Wind Energy Demand and Government Policy: The growth of Renewable Energy in India has been enormous and Wind Energy proved to be the most effective solution to the problem of depleting fossil fuels, import of large quantity of coal, greenhouse gas emission and environmental pollution etc. in last few years. Wind energy as a renewable, non-polluting and reasonable priced source directly avoids dependency on any type of fuel and transportation, can lead to green and clean electricity. The biggest advantage with wind energy is that the fuel is free, and also it doesn’t yields in any CO2 emission. Wind farm can be built reasonably fast step, the wind farm land can be used for farming simultaneously thus serving for dual purpose, and it is cost-effective in comparison to other forms of renewable energy.

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With an installed capacity of 21136.3 MW (March 2014) of wind energy, Renewable Energy Sources (excluding large Hydro) currently accounts for 13.86 % of India’s overall installed power capacity of 228721.73 MW. Wind Energy holds the major portion of 66.7 % (of 31707.2 GW total RE capacity) among renewable and continued as the largest supplier of clean energy. (India Wind Energy Outlook, 2012) In its 12th Five Year Plan (Govt. of India, 2012-17), the Indian Government has aim of achieving target by adding 18.5 GW of power produced by renewable energy sources to the generation mix out of which 11 GW is the wind power and rest from renewable sources like Solar and others having 4GW and 3.5 GW respectively. 1

Figure 8 Breakup of Installed power generation capacity (2013)

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Report of The Working Group on Power for Twelfth Plan 2012-17, Govt. of India, Ministry of Power

2014

4. Payback Period The state government of Maharashtra India, planning to reach the 1700 MW wind power installment during the 12th five year planning. At the end of 2012, 2733.35 MW wind energy produced in that area and according to the latest updated data up to 31st May 2014, it raised up to 4098 MW. Three year remaining to finish the 12th five year planning and only 335.35MW quantity is remaining to install for achieving the goal of wind power planning. Let consider that 335.35 MW, wind power potential is installed in one year with the capital cost of 0.995 M/MW. (Authority, 11th, March, 2014) Installed Capacity:

335.35 MW

Capital Cost:

0.995 M/MW

Operational and Maintenance Cost:

0.0165 M/MW

Useful Life Time:

25 Years

Tariff Time Period:

13 Years

Tariff:

90.246 USD/MWh

Wind Zone:

II

Capacity Factor:

22%

Table 3 Payback Period Calculations Yrs.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

12

Total Investment(Capital cost + O&M Cost)

Cumulative Investment

Return per year

333.67 333.67 339.21 58.32 5.53 344.74 58.32 5.53 350.27 58.32 5.53 355.81 58.32 5.53 361.34 58.32 5.53 366.87 58.32 5.53 372.41 58.32 5.53 377.94 5.53 58.32 383.47 5.53 58.32 389.01 5.53 58.32 Pay Back Period = 6 years 3 months and 26 days.

Cumulative Net return Cash Amount Flow

Remarks

0.00

-333.67

Ref. Annex 1.Cal-SheetTotal Investment & Calsheet-Return amount

58.32 116.65 174.97 233.30 291.62 349.95 408.27 466.60 524.92 583.25

-280.88 -228.09 -175.30 -122.51 -69.72 -16.92 35.87 88.66 141.45 194.24

Pay Back period: 6.32

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5. Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Cost of generating electricity (typically in cents/kWh, euro/kWh, euro or $/MWh) produces by different means. It comprises of initial capital, discount rate, operation and maintenance cost and fuel.1 5.1 LCOE-Onshore Wind Energy According to World Energy Council, Cost of Energy Technologies Report, 2103, world’s cheapest LCOE of on-shore wind energy can be found in India. In Karnataka (India) with 33% capacity factors, around USD50/MWh (2013) of LCOE can be estimated.

Figure 9 Levelised cost of Electricity by region (Source World Energy Council)

5.2 LCOE-Other technologies LCOE by Supercritical 800MW coal technology offers USD69/MWh. Meanwhile the commonly used domestic 500MW subcritical technology coal projects have an LCOE of $87/MWh. For comparison gas power options typically have an LCOE of around USD84/MWh at domestic gas prices and USD102/MWh at international prices.2

1 2

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source http://asian-power.com/project/commentary/india-coal-power-project-economics-and-market-outlook

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5.3 LCOE Calculations: 𝐴𝑡 (1 + 𝑖)𝑡 𝑀𝑡 ∑𝑛𝑡=1 (1 + 𝑖)𝑡

𝐼0 + ∑𝑛𝑡=1 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸1 =

Where LCOE levelised Cost of Energy 𝐴𝑡 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑀𝑡 Electricity output in year t in kWh I interest rate N economic lifetime in years t years of operation

Where, I=995000 USD/MW *335.35MW = 333673250USD A=16500 USD/MW *335.35MW = 5533275USD M=646286520 kWh I= 12% (V. P. Khambalkar) N= 25 years Then, LCOE=74.38USD/MWh This LCOE is quiet realistic because according to World Energy Council it is 50USD/MWh for 33% capacity factors but in our case it was 22%. LCOE with 33% capacity factor is also calculated and it came out to be 49.5USD/MWh, approximately same as 50USD/MWh by World Energy Council.

1

STUDY LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY RENEWABLE ENERGIES MAY 2012-FRAUNHOFER INSTITUT FOR SOLAR Energy Systems ISE

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6. Environmental Impact Wind energy is one of the most environmentally friendly technology in the world. Following tables show the equivalent CO2 generated technology wise. If 335.35 MW of wind farm is setup it will produce 6.84 ∗ 108 KWh of energy, this will produce 7524 tonneCO2eq/KWh. If the same energy is produced by coal it will produce 5.6 ∗ 105 tonneCO2eq/KWh. So Wind power will produce approximately 74 times less CO2.

Table 4 Lifecycle CO2 equivalent Lifecycle CO2 equivalent (including albedo effect) from selected electricity supply technologies. Arranged by decreasing median (gCO2eq/kWh) values.1 Technology

Min

Median

Max

740

820

910

with 620

740

890

Gas – combined cycle

410

490

650

Biomass – dedicated

130

230

420

Solar PV – utility scale

18

48

180

Solar PV – rooftop

26

41

60

Geothermal

6.0

38

79

Concentrated solar power

8.8

27

63

Hydropower

1.0

24

2200

Wind offshore

8.0

12

35

Nuclear

3.7

12

110

Wind onshore

7.0

11

56

Currently commercially available technologies Coal – PC Biomass –

cofiring

coal

1

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources

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7. Conclusions  Since India has more than 100GW of capacity available and Indian Government plans to make its present production from 21Gw to 32GW until 2017, a very strong market for wind energy can easily be foreseen.  Wind power potentiality is increased by 20% than the official estimate quantity by the reassessment analysis data, which also good things in the sector of renewable energy.  India’s steel industry strong future can easily be predicted due its high potential of wind power.  LCOE of Wind power is quiet less than power generated by fossil fuels, therefore wind power is currently best alternative for India.  LCOE of wind power computed by us using governmental statistics for previous projects is same as stated by World energy council for areas with 33%capacity factors.

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Annex-1 Cal-Sheet-Total Investment

335.35 0.995 0.0165

1. Installed Capacity: 2. Capital Cost per MW: 3.O&M cost per MW: 4.Tariff Amount per MWh: 5. Wind Zone: 6. Capacity Factor: 7.Life time:

90.246

MW M/MW M/MW USD/MWh

I 22% 25

Years

No.of Year

Installed Capital O&M Total Cummulative Capacity(MW) [email protected]/MW [email protected]/MW Insvestment(M) Investment(M)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

335.35

333.67 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53

333.67 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53

333.67 339.21 344.74 350.27 355.81 361.34 366.87 372.41 377.94 383.47 389.01

Table 5 Calculation of total investment cost for the installment of 335.35 MW wind power in the location of Maharashtra, India.

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Cal-Sheet-Total Returned Amount 335.35 0.995 0.0165 90.246 I 22%

1. Installed Capacity: 2. Capital Cost per MW: 3.O&M cost per MW: 4.Tariff Amount per MWh: 5. Wind Zone: 6. Capacity Factor: 7.Life time:

No.of Year

Installed Capacity(MW)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

335.35

25

Total Energy Returned Generated(MWh)@22%CF [email protected]

646286.52 646286.52 646286.52 646286.52 646286.52 646286.52 646286.52 646286.52 646286.52 646286.52

58.32 58.32 58.32 58.32 58.32 58.32 58.32 58.32 58.32 58.32

MW M/MW M/MW USD/MWh

Years Cummulative Returned Amount(M) 0.00 58.32 116.65 174.97 233.30 291.62 349.95 408.27 466.60 524.92 583.25

Table 6 Calculation of total returned amount after installment of 335.35 MW wind power in the location of Maharashtra, India.

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References (LBNL), E. E. (March-2012). Reassessing wind potential, Estimates for India: Economic & Police Implication. International Energy Studies. Authority, C. E. (11th, March, 2014). Petition No. SM/354/2013 (Suo-Motu). New Dehli. Govt. of India, M. o. (2012-17). Report of The Working Group on Power for Twelfth Plan . http://indianwindpower.com/news_views.html#tab0. (n.d.). (2012). India Wind Energy Outlook. India, G. o. (n.d.). present progress. Retrieved from Ministry of renewable energy: http://www.mnre.gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/achievements/ ( 2013). Mapping India’s renewable energy growth potential- Status and Outlook . UBM, 7th renewable energy India Expo. V. P. Khambalkar, V. N. (n.d.). Wind Energy Cost and Feasibility of 2 MW Wind Power Project. Department of Unconventional Energy Sources and Electrical Engineering,. Wind power. (n.d.). Retrieved from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power.

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