Conceptual Modelling of Emergency Command and ...

Conceptual Modelling of Emergency Command and Control Network Chaozheng Zhu

Ming He

Jihong Sun

College of Command Information College of Command Information College of Command Information Systems, Army engineering university Systems, Army engineering university Systems, Army engineering university No1, Haifu Lane, Guanghua Load, No 1, Haifu Lane, Guanghua Load, No1, Haifu Lane, Guanghua Load, Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. Province, China. Province, China. +86 1565193973 +86 13376089758 +86 15996340185

[email protected]

[email protected]

Qingbing Zou

Nuo Xu

People's Liberation Army Academy of Art Beixiaguan Street, Haidian District, Beijing, China. +86 15298399325

College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University No 8, Fochengxi Road, Jiangning District, Nanjing, China. +86 15189803906

[email protected]

[email protected]

ABSTRACT In view of the problems in the emergency disposal, such as unclear flow and untimely response, this article establishes the emergency disposal system framework, sorts the emergency disposal business flow, constructs the conceptual model of emergency control network and analyzes the dynamics, selfadaptability and reliability of the network, and applies the conceptual model to the analysis of "8. 12" Explosion in Tianjin to strengthen the emergency disposal capability.

CCS Concepts • Theory of computation➝Social networks

Keywords emergency; emergency command and control network; conceptual modelling

1.

INTRODUCTION

Emergencies in earlier times mainly include natural disasters, public riots and epidemics [1], while terrorist attacks and explosions of dangerous articles have attracted attentions in this area since the beginning of the 21st century [2]. Many countries have established corresponding organizations and institutions and improved relevant laws and rules to strengthen the emergency disposal capability. For example, the U. S. has established the Homeland Security Department to conduct the emergency

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/

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3134383.3134406

management of homeland; Russia has legislated the Law of Position of Accident Rescue Institutions and Rescuers to ensure the effective disposal of the emergency; India has legislated the Crisis Management Law to prevent the reoccurrence of disasters like tsunami of Indian Ocean [3]. Compared with western countries, China commences the study on emergency later and the initial focus was on the crisis management of international politics; Chinese scholars rushed for the study on emergency only after "SARS" in 2003 [4]. Emergency is featured in the uncertainty of time, place and scope of occurrence. The high uncertainty of emergency often weakens the effect of the traditional "command-control" emergency management mode mainly in aspects below: (1) Emergency preplan is often set against the fixed scenario that the control system will become confused if the actual situation is inconsistent with the preset scenario; (2) Existing system is unable to be rapidly adapted to the changing situation that the fixed execution system weakens the independence of the first-line institution and the existing knowledge is insufficient to support the response; (3) Mobile Internet is more convenient for the public to acquire the emergency information that the "command-control" mode is unable to meet dynamic and diversified demands from the online public opinion crisis [5]. In view of the problems above, this article establishes the emergency disposal system framework, constructs the conceptual model of emergency control network and analyzes the dynamics, self-adaptability and reliability of the network, and applies the conceptual model to the analysis of "8. 12" Explosion in Tianjin to strengthen the emergency disposal capability.

2.

RELEVANT THEORIES

2.1

Emergency Disposal System

Emergency occurs fast and is difficult to be predicted. Its life cycle mainly comprises of several stages, including incubation, occurrence, climax and end, as shown in Figure 1 below.

while keeping the real-time interaction with the site, so as to obtain the information timely and accurately; resource guarantee mainly satisfies demands for person, funds and properties in the emergency disposal process to guarantee the normal operation of the whole system; management information system mainly collects information in relation to the emergency to provide information support to the command and coordination; decisionmaking support system provides support to the decision-making through cases and database. Emergency disposal mainly comprises of stages like reception, judgment and scheduling, et al., as shown in Figure 3 [8]. Government Decision-making centre

command vehicle

armed police

Figure 1. Life cycle of emergency hospital

This process may be analyzed from the perspective of synergetics [6]. Stability of system is mainly affected by two kinds of variables: the first kind, which always prevents the system from changing when the system is unstable to try to return the system to the stable status, is called the fast variable; the second kind, which always makes the system unstable, is called the slow variable. Whenever the system is unstable, the fast variable returns the system to be balanced status. Occurrence of any emergency may break the existing balance of the society, under which circumstance the slow variable becomes quite effective. Later, as the emergency enters the fast-developing period and various forces participate in the disposal, regulation effect of the fast variable begins to be distinctive to restrict the evolution and makes the emergency descend and finally disappear, thus returning the society to the new stable status. The whole process appears to be a bell-type curve. Emergency disposal system mainly consists of business system and technical system. Business systems refers to "one plan and three systems", namely, emergency preplan, organization system, mechanism and legal system; technical system refers to the emergency management information system [7]. The system, containing excessive levels and having complex relations with the external environment, possesses features of the complex giant system, as shown in Figure 2. Command and control

Management information system

On-site disposal

Order Resource Information execution guarantee support

Emergency linkage center

public security

Command and coordination system

Decision-making support system

Information report

Figure 2. Emergency disposal system Command and coordination system is the core of the emergency disposal system. Upon the occurrence of any emergency, the command and coordination system organizes the synergetic cooperation among various departments to form the decision rapidly, and direct the on-site disposal according to the decision

Emergency

environmental protection

Figure 3. Specific business flow of emergency disposal It can be seen from the figure above that upon the occurrence of any emergency, Emergency Interaction Center obtains the information through public alarm, monitoring and other ways and reports to the superior authority; then, it establishes the emergency preplan and disposal principle while issuing orders to all units involved in the interaction, and dispatches forces from Armed Police, Public Security and Environmental Protection to conduct the on-site disposal. Real-time information communication between interacted units and Command Interaction Center shall be maintained during the whole process. In case of any serious emergency, the disposal shall be commanded uniformly by the senior official. Please use a 9-point Times Roman font, or other Roman font with serifs, as close as possible in appearance to Times Roman in which these guidelines have been set. The goal is to have a 9point text, as you see here. Please use sans-serif or nonproportional fonts only for special purposes, such as distinguishing source code text.

2.2 Auxiliary decision

Linkage unit dispatch center

Command and Control

Decision-making support system provides support to the decisionmaking through cases and database. Definition of command and control by the U. S. Ministry of National Defense: "The right with respect to the power and decision exercised by the commander is distributed and granted due to the task. The purpose of command and control is realized by the commander in the action through a series of equipment, persons, communication, programs and facilities. Such actions include planning, guiding, control and coordination of forces." [9] Alberts puts forward the "three-domain" model of command and control, namely, physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain. The process of command and control develops from physical domain to cognitive domain with a logical relation

by echelons. Such three domains are connected closely by the command and control, as shown in Figure 4 below.

3.1 Definition of Emergency Command and Control Network

Understanding

Knowledge Perception

Experience

Decisionmaking

Information

Cognitive domain

Action

Information domain Direct discovery

Indirect discovery

Objec tive

Obje ctive

Physical domain

Figure 4. "Three-domain" model of command and control Besides the "three-domain" model, many classical command models have been proposed by domestic and foreign scholars, among which OODA (Observe Orient Act Decide) Model was proposed by John R. Boyd, a U. S. Air Force Colonel in 1987. This is a very classical command and control model, which focuses on the command and control to depict the loop of "observation-judgment-decision-action", as shown in Figure 5 below: Observation External information

Dicision

Action

Absolute command and control Cultural tradition

Observation

Changing situation

Judgment

Absolute command and control

Historic tradition

Comprehensive analysis

New information

Dicision (assumption)

definition and topology of emergency command and control network in the current stage.

Action (inspection)

Changing interaction with environme nt

Experience

Feedback Feedback

Figure 5. OODA command and control model

Circulation of OODA Model is conducted in a dynamic and complex environment. Through four processes, including observation, judgment, decision and action, this model is able to depict the command and control process of both the own force and the enemy force in a simple and effective manner. Moreover, the model stresses two important factors affecting the decisionmaking capability of the commander: uncertainty and time pressure.

3. CONCEPTUAL MODELLING OF EMERGENCY CONTROL NETWORK Emergency command and control network is one of the command and control networks mainly for the emergency disposal. Domains of the occurrence of the network include physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain of the commander, which is consistent with the "three-domain" model. It can be seen from the disposal system specified in Section 2 that the whole emergency disposal process may be divided into discovery, response, disposal and recovery, also consistent with the classical OODA command and control model, and uncertainty and time pressure of emergency are also two factors stressed by OODA. Therefore, this study mainly take reference of the traditional command and control network and OODA to extract the

Conventional command and control generally disposal the fixed scenario in a fixed manner. As the emergency is sudden and disruptive, the disposal system must be competent for the emergency disposal. Before the occurrence of any emergency, participants of the disposal system shall deal with their own matters respectively; upon the occurrence of any emergency, participants shall be organized by the emergency center to coordinate to form the emergency command and control system. Participants of the emergency command and control process include organizations and individuals, all of whom are interacted through the command relation. This is consistent with participants of social activities and the emergency command and control is also a kind of social activity. Therefore, emergency command and control network may be regarded as a kind of social network. It is pointed out by Kilduff that social network is the collection of social actors and various relations among them. Analysis of the social network needs to discuss the social relation among nodes and the network structure [10]. In combination with the theory of command and control and the theory of social network, this study defines the emergency command and control network as follows: Definition. Emergency Command and Control Network (EC2N) refers to the network constructed by individuals and organizations participating in the disposal through command and cooperation upon the occurrence of emergency. The network may be used to coordinate and arrange the disposal force to conduct the emergency disposal. The definition mentioned above contains two fundamental elements: the first is the participant of the emergency disposal; the second is the link formed by the command and cooperation relationship among participants in the disposal. The latest definition of command and control is [11]: collection of attributes and processes of organization and technology, by which the enterprise arranges and utilizes human resources, materials and information resources to solve the problem and complete the task. It can be discovered in the comparison that such two definitions are the same in the basic connotation and are in the following relation: participant in EC2N corresponds to the organization and technology in the command and control, link relation corresponds to the process, and emergency disposal corresponds to the problem to be solved in the command and control. As a result, EC2N may be regarded as the specific application of command and control to the emergency disposal.

3.2 Topology of Emergency Command and Control Network Taking the participant as the node and taking the relation as the edge, we can analyze and describe the command and control network with the graph theory. In EC2N, organization and individual may be regarded as the network node while the link relation may be regarded as the edge, and the node may be further divided into command competence node and on-site disposal competence node, so EC2N may be described in the form below by the graph theory [12]: EC2N is a triple consisting of points sets , and edge set , which is marked as, in which and are tow nonempty finite sets represented as and; edge set is represented as

U  N1 , N 2 , E 

, in

which

N1

and

N2

are tow nonempty finite sets represented as

N1  {n11 , n12 , n13  n1i }

N 2  {n21 , n22 , n23  n2 j }

E  {e1 , e2 , e3  em }

and ; edge set

E

by the control information, may be described

n1i  I , IFT , D, M 

. In the

I stands for the information of node n1i ; IFT

stands

for the intelligence acquired at the command node; and M stand for the command nodes and the disposal nodes controlled by

D

such command nodes in relation to Disposal force node

n2 j

may be described as

n1i

n2 j  I , IFT , D, M  

and

M

disposal nodes in relation to Edge set (

Ec

edge

E

command

n1i .

. In the

stand for the command nodes and

n2 j

commands

n2 j

, then

n2 j

and

is impossible to

E

Cooperation edge d generally exists between the command node and execution node. Cooperation edge between command nodes stands for the common decision at the same level while cooperation edge between execution nodes stands for the common cooperation, which may be formally described as follows:

Ed  N1  N1  Ed  N 2  N 2  Ed  N1  N 2

 ni , n j  Ed  n j , ni  Ed  ni , n j  Ed   n j , nm  Ed  ni , nm  Ed In accordance with the definition mentioned above and taking reference with the emergency disposal system, topological structure of EC2N is as follows [13]:

respectively.

may be specifically divided into the control edge

), execution edge ( may

n1i

stands for the executor in EC2N and

n

D

and

n1i

Cooperation edge contains symmetry and transitivity, which may be described as:

respectively.

formula, I  stands for the information of node 2 j ; IFT  stands for the emergency disposal decision received from the command node;

 n1i , n2 j  Ee  n2 j , n1i  Ee

n2 j

by the formula below: formula,

contains the skew

In the formula, if there is an execution relation between

.

Command node stands for the command and control node in EC2N. Such kind of node, which acquires the intelligence, makes the emergency strategy according to the situation and direct disposal node

Ee

is represented as

n1i

n2 j

represent the flow of decision information. symmetry, that is,

be

N ,N N

Ee

) and cooperation edge (

formally

described

as

Ed

). Control

Ec  N1i  N1 j

1j 1 ( 1i ), which exists between the superior and subordinate decision makers to represent the information

exchange between decision markers. that is,

Ec

contains the transitivity,

 n11 , n12  Ec   n12 , n13  Ec  n11 ,13  Ec In the formula, if there is a rank relation between and between between

n11

real world.

n12 and

Ec

and

n13

n13

n11

and

Topology of EC2N consists of two levels. The upper is the command level, which mainly comprises of command nodes and

n12

, then there is also a rank relation

, corresponding to the rank relation in the

also contains the symmetry, that is,

 n1i , n1 j  EC  n1 j , n1i  EC

E N N

Figure 6. EC2N topology

1 2 , which Execution edge may be described as e exists between the superior command node and execution node to

corresponds to node set

N1

, and the universal existence of edges

Ec and Ed among nodes indicates that the decision maker shall link and cooperate with each other rapidly upon the occurrence of the emergency to put forward the scheme against the emergency; the lower is the execution level, which corresponds to execution node set

N2 .

The existence of edge

Ee

between two levels

indicates the decision formed by the command level is distributed to the execution level. It can be understood in the practice that upon the occurrence of the emergency, each level of disposal institutions and forces participate in the disposal to form the subordination and cooperation relation in the emergency disposal system to form the emergency command and control network.

3.3 Features of Emergency Command and Control Network

and self-organization. Besides, the high uncertainty of emergency further increases the complexity of EC2N.

It can be induced from the study and description mentioned above that EC2N contain following features: self-adaptation, reliability, dynamics and complexity.

4.

Self-adaptation: High uncertainty of emergency requires EC2N to adjust the disposal method, disposal sequence, disposal parameter, boundary condition or restriction condition automatically according to the change of environment, and identify existing or impending significant change of the emergency. Besides, the network shall recognize the necessity of a certain action, make the action plan on this basis, and conduct the action according to the plan. This is the self-adaptation of EC2N, which enables EC2N to maintain effective notwithstanding the change of environment.

Figure 7. Motions of system change

Environment change caused by system change or action

CASE STUDY

In the evening of August 12, 2015, an explosion occurred at the dangerous articles warehouse of Ruihai International Logistics Company in Tianjin Port, causing serious casualty, and property loss. After the explosion, Huang Xingguo, Acting Secretary and Mayor of Tianjin, arrived at the site rapidly to command the rescue. The Headquarters, with Huang Xingguo acting as the Chief Commander and the Standing Member of Municipal CPC Committee and Secretary of Binhai District CPC Committee acting as the Deputy Chief Commander, was established in the Command Center of District Government in the next morning. The Headquarters set five working teams, namely, On-site Disposal Team, Rescue Team, Stability Maintenance Team, Information Release Team and Cause Investigation Team to conduct the rescue and after-care tasks. Meanwhile, other disposal forces were commanded by the Headquarters to join the rescue team: Fire Detachment of Tianjin Port Public Security Bureau arrived at the very first to dispose the emergency; later, Tianjin Armed Police Corps, 8360 Chemical Defense Detachment, a Chemical Defense Regiment from Beijing Military Area and a Pontoon Bridge Regiment from Tianjin Garrison joined the rescue; besides, Tianjin Municipal Engineering Quality Inspection Center began to conduct the emergency inspection of bridges surrounding the explosion. While conducting effective disposal of the explosion accident, the Headquarters formed the Psychological Work Team to offer the family members of sacrificed and missed soldiers and the injured soldiers with psychological intervention [15]. System structure of disposal forces in the whole process of disposal is shown in Figure 8 [16]:

Reliability: Emergency usually results in serious consequences and bring disastrous losses to the country and society, so the emergency disposal must be rapid and reliable to minimize the possibility of potential harm. In view of the emergency, EC2N may make the decision efficiently and accurately to direct disposal forces to dispose the emergency and respond rapidly to the real-time change of the emergency, thus ensuring the effectiveness and reliability of the plan. It can be seen that reliability is the essential feature of EC2N. Dynamics. EC2N is not fixed. In the initial period of emergency, the command authority and the disposal authorities like Public Security will intervene with the emergency to form the network preliminarily. More forces will participate in the process and the scale of EC2N will be enlarged along with the development of the emergency. Once the emergency becomes deteriorated, on-site Emergency Headquarters will further improve the emergency mechanism, strengthen the rescue and invest more forces, materials and equipment, so as to further enlarge EC2N. When the emergency is effectively disposed, participants will withdraw the process and the scale of EC2N will be shrunk. In view of the whole process, constant participation by new nodes and constant withdrawal by old nodes place EC2N in the dynamic change, so dynamics is one of the fundamental features of EC2N. Complexity: As one of the social networks, complex network is an important theoretic tool for the network analysis [14]. It can be seen from the topological diagram that EC2N appears the nonlinear logical interactive network structure under informationization, which is constructed by communicaiton relations and contains fundamental features of the complex network, including multiple levels, non-linearity, self-adaptation

Figure 8. System structure of disposal forces in Tianjin explosion Taking departments participating in the accident disposal as nodes and taking subordinating and synergetic relation among departments as edges, the topological diagram of Tianjin Explosion, as shown in Figure 9, may be obtained with reference to the disposal force system diagram:

of Jiangsu Province under Grant No. BK20150721 and BK20161469, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No. 2015M582786, 2016T91017 and 2016M60297, Engineering Research Center of Jiangsu Province under Grant No. BM2014391, Primary Research & Development Plan of Jiangsu Province under Grant No. BE2015728, and the Fundamental Research Funds of China for the Central Universities under Grant No. 2013B01814.

7.

REFERENCES

[1] Xingzhuang, M. 2006. Overcoming Accidents – Construction of Static Emergency System. People's Publishing House, Beijing, BJ. Figure 9. Topological DIAGRAM OF DISPOSAL FORCES of Tianjin explosion It can be seen from the diagram above that the whole disposal force system consists of two levels. The upper level is command level focusing on the Headquarters, consisting of 6 teams, including On-site Disposal Team, Injured Rescue Team, Stability Maintenance Team, Information Release Team, Accident Investigation Team and Psychological Work Team established later. In the disposal of the explosion, this level acted as the core think-tank to make the disposal plan, issue the disposal order and plan the disposal process, thus ensuring the orderly disposal and smooth rescue, and guaranteeing the final victory of the explosion disposal. The lower level is execution level, including action and logistics, covering all disposal forces. As the execution level of disposal plans and orders, the level is in relation to the most dangerous site of explosion and its execution effect is directly connected to the final result of the disposal. It can be discovered by studying the case that the network defined and the topology constructed in Section 4 match with the actual situation well, proving the effectiveness of the definition and topology. Captions should be Times New Roman 9-point bold. They should be numbered (e. g., 8 "Table 1" or "Figure 2"), please note that the word for Table and Figure are spelled out. Figure's captions should be centered beneath the image or picture, and Table captions should be centered above the table body.

5.

CONCLUSION

Analyzing the emergency disposal system to unite disposal forces by defining the emergency command and control network breaks the existing "isolated island" mode. Formally describing the interrelation among participants and making the conceptual modelling of the emergency command and control network are helpful for the decision maker to clarify duties of members, straighten the subordination relation, realize the rapid interaction and synergetics and keep the emergency decision scientific. The future "scenario-response" emergency management mode shall overcome weaknesses of the traditional "command-control" mode that it must be able to analyze the cause of emergency, research the evolution discipline of emergency and put forward the corresponding solution. The focus is process study. This mode is capable of effectively solving the uncertain information and other problems that are difficult to predict in the emergency response [17].

6.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61301159, 61300122, 61502145, 61602150 and 61303267, Natural Science Foundation

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