actual situation can be used as a food safety pre-warning monitoring. Finally, the paper gives some effective proposals on how to promote China's Grain Security ...
Proceedings of 2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, November 10-12, 2009, Nanjing, China
China’s Grain Security Warning Based on the Integration of AHP-GRA Men Kepei, Wei Beijun, Tang Sasa, Jiang Liangyu
Some can judge the prosperity condition of grain production and consumption and do the imaginal and intuitive characterization in the process of grain development, but only have a limited value. Some make a total evaluation of grain security, but the indexes, reflect grain safety, are not inadequate. In addition, there is some objection about the selection of grain security weights. Based on the above models, we will adopt a comprehensive warning model of grain security. From the view of data source, we will improve the selection of index and weights.
Abstract—According to the meaning of food security, the index system for China's food security was established and the weight on each index was given by adopting AHP method. This paper made measurement and evaluation on the level of China's food security from 2001 to 2007 by using the AHP-GRA method. The results show that the model which conforms to China's actual situation can be used as a food safety pre-warning monitoring. Finally, the paper gives some effective proposals on how to promote China’s Grain Security.
I. INTRODUCTION
G
RAIN is special merchandise, connecting with the national economy, the people's livelihood and social stability. Grain is also the basic guarantee to achieve human beings' right of existence. If people's survival right is not allowed, people's other rights can not be satisfied and the groundwork also will be lost for building a harmonious society. From the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2008, the alarm bell about grain security was knolled again all over the world. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) claims, rise in price of grain has brought food supplies’ crisis in 37 countries. Nowadays, Grain security, subprime lending crisis and rising oil price at very fast speed are to be the world three hotspots. On the forum of G8 in 2008, secretary-general Hu Jintao pointed, we China paid high attention to agriculture, especially the problem of grain. We stuck at the policy of grain security which was based on ourselves and we were self-support. It is a great contribution for China to solve the grain problem of 20 percent of world population with only 9 percent of world farmland. As some factors disturbing grain security still exist, the contradiction between population and grain supply is increasingly outstanding. Presently China is under an urgent to establish a scientific and complete safety warning system. The research on this system began at the 1990s. There have been four main warning models [1-5]: growth rate warning model of grain tendency production (Liu, Gu, 1993), warning model of grain supply and demand (Gu, 1995), warning system of prosperity analysis (Li, 1998), grain security factor evaluation (Zhu, 1997). However, some of these methods are just the grain production warning forecast, which only reflect fluctuation of grain production. Some cannot make a concise and quantitative total evaluation.
A. The selection of indicators and weights of determine Mainly, grain security factors include producing factor, consuming factor and circulating factor. When we build up the warning index system, we should obey following principles: 1) Representability Principle. We should select some indexes nearly related to grain production and demand. 2) Comprehensive Principle. We should consider problems more completely to be sure of enough grain; try our best to stabilize grain supply; make sure that people could obtain grain if they need. 3) Maneuverability Principle. To get the data easily that we need, the indexes should be operable. Based on the principles above and the characteristic of grain security, we select indexes as following in this paper: 1) Productive indexes mainly include: grain production x1 (units: 104 tons), grain seeding area x2 (units: 103 hektares), per capital seeding area x3 (units: square meter per person), effective irrigation area of Cultivaled land x5 (units: 103 hektares), proportion of agriculture increasing value in GDP x9 (units: %); 2) Consumptive indexes mainly include: per capital occupation of grain x4 (units: kilogram), x10 Food imports accounted for the proportion of total agricultural imports (units:%) , x11 Food exports account for the proportion of total agricultural exports (units:%), growth rate of Grain Price Index x6 (units: %);
This research has been supported by the Key Projects of National Statistics Research Program (2008LZ022) and the Science Foundation of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. Men Kepei, Wei Beijun,Tang Sasa, Jiang Liangyu,College of Mathematics & Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044.
978-1-4244-4916-3/09/$25.00 ©2009 IEEE
II. RESEARCH METHODS
3) Disaster indexes includes: disaster-affected 3 area x7 (units: 10 hektares), proportion of disaster area in
655
disaster-affected area x8 (units: %).
Where
TABLE I COMPREHENSIVE WEIGHT COEFFICIENT Weight
Productive Indexes
0.46
Consumptive Indexes
0.34
Disaster Indexes
0.20
Level indicators Grain Production Grain Seeding Area Per Capital Seeding Area The added value of agricultural gross domestic product ratio Effective Irrigation Area of Cultivaled Land Growth Rate of Grain Price Index Per Capital Occupation of Grain Grain imports accounted for the proportion of the total agricultural imports Grain exports account for the proportion of total agricultural exports Disaster-Affected Area Proportion of Disaster Area
Weight 0.14 0.08 0.11
treatment to 0.03
0.10
standardization matrix Λ of the row vector, that is indicators of the value of the reserve program λ i = (λi1 , λi 2 ,..., λim )
0.09
as a compare sequence, the correlation coefficient can be used the following formula, the first i program of the k indexes and the optimal indicator of relational coefficient is obtained min min λok − λik + ρ maxmax λok − λik i k (3) ξi (k) = i k λok − λik + ρ max max λok − λik
0.17
0.04
0.04
Where
ρ ∈ [ 0,1]
i
,
ρ
k
is generally take 0.5. Further
obtained a correlation coefficient matrix is as follows: ⎛ ξ1 (1) ξ 2 (1) ξ3 (1) ... ξ n (m) ⎞ ⎜ ξ1 (2) ξ 2 (2) ξ3 (2) ... ξ n (m) ⎟⎟ (4) ⎜ E= ⎜ ... ... ... ... ... ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ξ1 (m) ξ 2 (m) ξ3 (m) ... ξ n (m) ⎠ Where ξi (k ), (i = 1, 2,..., n; k = 1, 2,..., m) is the first i
0.10 0.10
program of the k indexes and the optimal indicator of relational coefficient. (4) the establishment of a single gray-level evaluation model
R = P ⋅ ET Where
R = [ r1 , r1 ,..., rn ]
(5) is comprehensive evaluation
results matrix of many programs , ri ( i = 1, 2,..., n ) is the results of the comprehensive evaluation of the first option i and P = [ p1 , p2 ,..., pm ] is m evaluation index weight m
distribution matrix. In the case of
∑p k =1
k
= 1 , weights can be
used to determine by AHP theory. The correlation degree of the comprehensive evaluation program of the first i program is obtained from following formula. ⎛ ξ i (1) ⎞ ⎜ ⎟ (6) ⎜ ξ i (2) ⎟
concentration, such as positive indicators, then X oi is admitted to take the maximum value; such as negative indicators, while X oi is admitted to the minimum value.
ri =
(2) Index of standardized treatment
X ik − X X imax − X
λ0 = (λ01 , λ02 ,..., λ0 m ) .
(3) Calculation of correlation coefficient λ0 = (λ01 , λ02 ,..., λ0 m ) will be listed as a reference,
Gray single-level model of comprehensive evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of options n comparison, the specific steps are as follows: (1) Indicators to determine the optimal set X o = ( X o1 , X o 2 ,..., X om ). Indicators in optimal
λik =
(2)
The optimal indicator of set X o by the standardization of
B. Gray multi-level comprehensive evaluation model Gray system theory in the correlation analysis is to analyze the system factors associated with a new factor analysis method. Gray Comprehensive Evaluation is a multi-level analysis of the correlation method used to analyze the system with a hierarchical structure of the mathematical model established. 1) Gray single-level evaluation model It corresponds to the definition of China's food security assessment by the m indices and n samples, which constitute the value of evaluation index matrix X : X = ( xij ) m⋅n
min i min i
the standardized values of k indicators of the
i section, thus has standardized matrix: ⎛ λ01 λ02 λ03 ... λ0 m ⎞ ⎜ λ11 λ12 λ13 ... λ1m ⎟⎟ ⎜ Λ= ⎜ ... ... ... ... ... ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ λn1 λn 2 λn 3 ... λnm ⎠
The weights are determined by AHP method and are shown in Table I.
Criteria layer
λik
(1)
( p i1 ,
p i 2 , ..., p im ) ⋅
⎜ # ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ m ξ ( ) ⎝ i ⎠
The formula also can be expressed as
656
the highest level.
m
ri = ∑ pk ξi (k )
(7)
k =1
III. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
If ri is maximum degree, it most closes to optimal set of
A. Index processing [10] We list the grain security raw data from 1997 to 2007 in Table II. According to the method above, China food safety is measured and longitudinally compared from 2001-2007 by the gray multi-level comprehensive evaluation model. By (1), standardized data processing, the results are shown in table III. From Table III combined with (3) type, the indicators and the best indicators of correlation coefficient was calculated, we list the results in Table IV.
indicators λ0 . It shows first i program superior to other programs, which can be from the merits of the order of the program. 2) multi-level comprehensive evaluation model of grey Multi-level evaluating model is established when the system index factors in different levels and it is based on single level evaluation model. The basic idea is: First, we comprehensively evaluate most basic factors of the index, then the levels of evaluation results Rk
(R
k
= pk ⋅ EkT ) as the next level of primitive indexes,
repeat evaluation of single-layer to the next level, and so on to TABLE II GRAIN SECURITY TARGET DATA IN 1997-200 Year
x1
x2
x3
x5
x9
x4
x10
x11
x6
x7
x8
1997
49417.1
112912
910
51238.5
18.3
402
15.15
18.68
-0.08
53429
56.7
1998
51229.5
113787
910
52295.6
18.0
411
15
25.11
-0.03
50145
50.2
1999
50838.6
113161
900
53158.4
17.6
404
9.45
19.75
-0.04
49981
53.5
2000
46217.5
108463
860
53820.3
16.4
366
8.55
24.81
-0.10
54688
62.9
2001
45263.7
106080
830
54249.4
15.8
356
28.45
12.77
0.02
52215
60.9
2002
45705.8
103891
810
54354.8
15.3
357
29.97
18.16
-0.01
47119
58.0
2003
43069.5
99410
770
54014.2
14.6
334
31.98
22.99
0.02
54506
59.8
2004
46946.9
101606
780
54478.4
15.2
362
39.65
6.57
0.26
37106
43.9
2005
48402.2
104278
800
55029.3
12.5
371
35.39
10.98
0.29
38818
51.4
2006
49804.2
104958
800
56109.4
11.8
379
27.26
6.81
4.8
41091
59.9
2007
50160.3
105638
799
56518.3
9.9
380
29.84
10.13
6.6
48992
51.2
λ i9
λ i10
λ i11
TABLE III THE INDICATOR DATA OF TREATMENT OF STANDARDIZATION
Year
λ i1
λ i2
λ i3
1997
0.7779
0.9391
1
1998
1
1
1
1999
0.9521
0.9565
0.9286
2000
0.3858
0.6297
0.6429
2001
0.2689
0.4639
2002
0.3231
2003
0
2004
λ i4
λ i5
λ i6
λ i7
λ i8
0
1
0.2002
0.9643
0.8831
0.2122
0.6532
0.003
0.0320
0.6737
1
0.2074
1
0.0104
0.0256
0.3316
0.3636 0.4890
0.9167
0.9091
0.0289
0.7109
0.009
0.0253
0.5053
0.7738
0.4156
0
0.9838
0
0
0.4286
1
0.5703
0.7024
0.2857
0.6399
0.3344
0.0179
0.0296
0.8947
0.3117 0
0.2857
0.5902
0.6429
0.2987
0.6887
0.6251
0.0134
0.0196
0.7421
0
0.5272
0.5595
0
0.7534
0.8857
0.0179
0.0341
0.4752
0.8368
0.1527
0.0714
0.6136
0.6310
0.3636
1
0
0.0537
0
2005
0
0.6535
0.3386
0.2143
0.7180
0.3095
0.4805
0.8630
0.2379
0.0582
0.0034
0.3947
2006
0.8253
0.3859
0.2143
0.8546
0.2262
0.5844
0.6016
0.0129
0.7313
0.0078
0.8421
2007
0.8690
0.4332
0.2071
1
0
0.5974
0.6846
0.1920
1
0.0233
0.3842
xo
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
657
TABLE IV RELATIONAL COEFFICIENT
ξ i (1)
ξ i (2)
1997
0.6924
0.8914
1
1998
1
1
1
Year
ξ i (3)
ξ i (4)
ξ i (5)
ξ i (6)
ξ i (7)
ξ i (8)
0.3333
1
0.3847
0.9334
0.8105
0.702
1
0.7068
ξ i (10)
ξ i (11)
0.5905
0.994
0.9398
0.426
1
0.9796
0.9513
0.6013
1999
0.9126
0.92
0.875
0.4400
0.8572
0.8462
0.9454
0.6336
0.9823
0.9518
0.4974
2000
0.4488
0.5745
0.5834
0.4946
0.6885
0.4611
1
0.9686
1
1
0.3333
2001
0.4061
0.4826
0.4667
0.5378
0.6269
0.4118
0.4386
0.429
0.9654
0.9441
0.3585
2002
0.4248
0.4208
0.4118
0.5496
0.5834
0.4162
0.4206
0.5716
0.9739
0.9623
0.4025
2003
0.3333
0.3333
0.3333
0.5140
0.5316
0.3333
0.3989
0.8139
0.9654
0.9362
0.3740
2004
0.4879
0.3711
0.35
0.5641
0.5754
0.44
0.3333
0.3333
0.903
1
1
2005
0.5907
0.4305
0.3889
0.6394
0.42
0.4904
0.3668
0.3962
0.8957
0.9932
0.5588
2006
0.7411
0.4488
0.3889
0.7747
0.3925
0.5461
0.4539
0.3362
0.4061
0.9846
0.3726
2007
0.7924
0.4687
0.3867
1
0.3333
0.554
0.4221
0.3823
0.3333
0.9555
0.5655
5 are 0.4164 and 0.1386. Due to the theory that the generant probability is smaller as the composite index is farther away from the mean value, carve up the Superintendent as following: we take the standard deviation as the base line of abnormity about grain security; take double standard deviation as the base line of super abnormity about grain security. In other words, the warning degree is quite safe, safe, unsafe extraordinary unsafe and dangerous with composite index between (0.5550~0.6936), (0.2778~0.5550), (0.1392~0.2778) and under 0.1392. Through comparing, the grain security status list on the right column in Table V from 1997 to 2007.
E is the 5 correlation coefficient of A, B, C, D, E of the correlation coefficient matrix. We have R1 = p1 * E1 = (1.0302, 1.1547, 1.0585, 0.6695, 0.5720 T
0.5151, 0.4176, 0.4769, 0.5293, 0.5781, 0.5889) Similarly, we have R2 = (0.2557, 0.2893, 0.3015, 0.2902, 0.1674, 0.1708,
0.1690, 0.1457, 0.1582, 0.1560, 0.1502) R3 = (0.1366, 0.1553, 0.1449, 0.1333, 0.1303, 0.1365,
0.1311, 0.2000, 0.1552, 0.1357, 0.1521) For (5)~(7), we determine the value of the correlation each year, for example, the value of correlation in 1997 as follows: ⎛ 1.0302 ⎞
IV. CONCLUSION The weakness status of basic equipment in grain production has not been changed radically. The problems such as the increasing grain demand, gradually decreasing farm land and inferior efficiency of grain production have existed for a long time. Grain system is still full of safety hazard. Combined with agricultural actuality, to solve the problem of grain security requires of taking efficient measure as well as making sure of developing thread and arrangement. Firstly, don’t fluctuate the basic guiding principle “guarantee grain security by myself mainly” unceasingly. Grain is one of the most important stratagem materials. During the situation of being suppressed by some international force, the international trade has certain political meaning. Sometimes, we don’t always get the grain that we need even though we have the ample purchasing power. Thus, we should insist on self reliance to solve the problem of grain supply. Secondly, continue to reinforce the protection of farm land, and retain the deadline of 1.8 billion farm land. According to ” Communiqué of Land and Resources-2007”[16], the area of farm land in our country is only 1.826 billion mu, about 1.38 mu per capita. The farm land is decreased by 0.6101 million mu, about 0.03%, which has reduced 0.22 percent at the same period. The speed of
⎜ ⎟ RI = ( 0.46, 0.34, 0.20 ) 0.2557 ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ 0.1366 ⎟ ⎝ ⎠
Similarly, the correlation value in other years is shown in Table V. TABLE V CORRELATION VALUE, RANKING AND SUPERINTENDENT IN 1997-2007 Year
ξ i (9)
Correlation value
Ranking
Superintendent
1997
0.5881
3
quite safe
1998
0.6606
1
quite safe
1999
0.6184
2
quite safe
2000
0.4333
4
safe
2001
0.3461
6
safe
2002
0.3223
8
safe
2003
0.2758
10
unsafe
2004
0.3089
9
safe
2005
0.3283
7
safe
2006
0.3461
6
safe
2007
0.3525
5
safe
B. Dividing of Superintendent According to the principle of normal distribution, the composite index of grain security should lay out round the mean value. The mean value and standard deviation of Table 658
timely provocation and ordered translation. Therefore, we have every reason to believe that under the wise leadership of the CPC Central Committee, China's food security will soon shake off the shadow of the financial crisis and achieve a new leap forward.
reducing is obvious slow. Farm land is the foundation of grain production, to such a grain consumptive country with about 1.32129 billion population, 1.8 billion mu farm lands is absolutely not rich. We should retain this lifeline absolutely necessarily without a leeway. Thirdly, enhance the enthusiasm of farmers unremitting to guarantee the farmers’ income increasing. Finally, complete the macroscopical control system of grain. Strengthen construction of basic equipment in grain production, improving the Composite production ability. Nowadays, the grain security of our country is assuring, because agricultural production has been developing stably in the last few years. Facing a variety of complex and difficult situation at home and abroad in 2008, the agricultural production in China continue to maintain stability and development trend, the year-round grain output reaches 528.5 million t, increase over the previous year 26.9 million t, up 5.4%, Food production for 5 consecutive years achieve a good harvest. This is a great achievement for the hard-won, in order to keep the rapid development of economy in balance laid solid foundation. As Minister of Agriculture Sun Zhengcai introduces that the grain supply of our country is full and consumption stock is twice of the world’s average level, in which the stock of rice is 40~50 million tons. We can achieve self-sufficiency completely in this condition [18]. To make sure of grain security, we not only need enough grain, but also make grain planters get reasonable income. In the condition of market economy, stabilizing price of grain is the vital measure to come true the two targets. Because of the grain crisis caused by grain reduction in production all the world last year, thus, price variance of food grain is obvious at home and abroad. Although this is one of the main factors about the price in grain rise, the price will run back in a certain extent by so much good policy of the government. Next, we should continue to well develop the warning system of supply and demand balance about our country, complete the grain supply system and price forming mechanism. Both reinforce the protection of grain purchasing, processing and selling, and reinforce the supervising. We should unify the engagement and management of grain trade inside and outside and utilize inside-outside two markets, adjust the surplus and deficiency of the two markets. We should make every effort to realize the dynamic and benign circulation in the course of highly efficient transportation, safe storage,
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