Predicting Systems Performance through ...

8 downloads 605 Views 700KB Size Report
This paper introduces a statistical model that uses requirements quality factors to predict system operational ... support model development and validation.
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Procedia Computer Science 28 (2014) 347 – 353

&RQIHUHQFHRQ6\VWHPV(QJLQHHULQJ5HVHDUFK &6(5  (GV$]DG00DGQL8QLYHUVLW\RI6RXWKHUQ&DOLIRUQLD%DUU\%RHKP8QLYHUVLW\RI6RXWKHUQ&DOLIRUQLD 0LFKDHO6LHYHUV-HW3URSXOVLRQ/DERUDWRU\0DULOHH:KHDWRQ7KH$HURVSDFH&RUSRUDWLRQ 5HGRQGR%HDFK&$0DUFK



3UHGLFWLQJ6\VWHPV3HUIRUPDQFHWKURXJK5HTXLUHPHQWV4XDOLW\ $WWULEXWHV0RGHO -RKQ/'DUJDQD 'U(QULTXH&DPSRV1DQH]E'U3DYHO)RPLQEDQG'U-DPHV:DVHNE b

a Doctoral Candidate, Systems Engineering, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA Advisor, School of Systems Engineering and Applied Science, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA

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‹7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU%9 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI6RXWKHUQ&DOLIRUQLD Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the University of Southern California. Keywords:5HTXLUHPHQWV(QJLQHHULQJ5HTXLUHPHQWV4XDOLW\$WWULEXWHV1DWXUDO/DQJXDJH5HTXLUHPHQWV6\VWHPV(QJLQHHULQJ

&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ Email addressMGDUJDQ#JPDLOFRP

1877-0509 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the University of Southern California. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2014.03.043

348

John L. Dargan et al. / Procedia Computer Science 28 (2014) 347 – 353

,QWURGXFWLRQ 1.1 Problem Statement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³GRZQVWUHDP´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pproach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ontributions Summary  7KLVUHVHDUFKRQWKHSUHGLFWLYHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQUHTXLUHPHQWVTXDOLW\DQGV\VWHPSHUIRUPDQFHSURYLGHVWKH IROORZLQJPDMRUFRQWULEXWLRQV  x 3UHGLFWLYH0RGHOLQJ'HYHORSPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\±6HFWLRQ x 6WDWLVWLFDO6LJQLILFDQFHRI5HTXLUHPHQWV4XDOLW\5HODWLRQVKLSWR6\VWHP3HUIRUPDQFH±6HFWLRQ x $GGLWLRQDO$UHDVRI5HVHDUFKIRU3UHGLFWLYH0RGHOLQJ±6HFWLRQ

John L. Dargan et al. / Procedia Computer Science 28 (2014) 347 – 353

349

0HWKRGRORJ\ 6WDWLVWLFDOPRGHOLQJEDVHGRQHPSLULFDOSHUIRUPDQFHGDWDLVWKHDSSURDFKXVHGWRDGGUHVVWKHUHVHDUFKK\SRWKHVLV SUHVHQWHGLQWKLVSDSHU7KHPRGHOGHYHORSPHQWDQGYDOLGDWLRQPHWKRGRORJ\LQYROYHWKHIROORZLQJVHTXHQWLDOVWHSV DVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH  x 2EWDLQ25'.33VDQG2SHUDWLRQDO7HVW5HSRUWUHVXOWVIURP'R'DQG'+6DFTXLVLWLRQGDWDEDVHV x $QDO\]H.33VIRUOLQJXLVWLFTXDOLW\ x 3HUIRUPORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQRQOLQJXLVWLFTXDOLW\PHWULFVDQGRSHUDWLRQDOWHVWUHVXOWV x 'HYHORSSUHGLFWLYHPRGHOEDVHGRQORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQUHVXOWV x 9DOLGDWHPRGHOIRUSUHGLFWLYHSHUIRUPDQFH  

)LJ0HWKRGRORJ\2YHUYLHZ  )XUWKHUGLVFXVVLRQRQWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\DVZHOODVWKHDQDO\VLVWRROVXVHGIRUOLQJXLVWLFTXDOLW\DQDO\VLVDQGPRGHO FRQVWUXFWLRQDUHGHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQDQG6HFWLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\  2.1 Model Construction and Validation  'HYHORSPHQWRIDSUHGLFWLYHPRGHOLVUHTXLUHGWRGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWHQGV\VWHPRSHUDWLRQDOSHUIRUPDQFHFDQEH SURMHFWHGEDVHGRQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVOLQJXLVWLFTXDOLW\IDFWRUVDVGHILQHGEHORZ  x 8QDPELJXRXV±UHTXLUHPHQWVWDWHPHQWKDVQRPRUHWKDQRQHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ x 8QGHUVWDQGDEOH±UHTXLUHPHQWVWDWHPHQWLVUHDGLO\FRPSUHKHQGHGE\WKHHQGXVHU x 7HVWDEOH±UHTXLUHPHQWVWDWHPHQWKDVDSURFHVVWRYHULI\UHTXLUHPHQWKDVEHHQVDWLVILHG x &RPSOHWH±UHTXLUHPHQWVWDWHPHQWIXOO\FDSWXUHVUHTXLUHPHQWSDUDPHWHUV

350

John L. Dargan et al. / Procedia Computer Science 28 (2014) 347 – 353

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³RSHUDWLRQDO SHUIRUPDQFH PHW´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nalysis Tools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x 5HTXLUHPHQWV7H[W$QDO\VLV x .H\5HTXLUHPHQWV$QDO\VLV x 'XSOLFDWH2EMHFWV$QDO\VLV x 'RPDLQ&DSDELOLWLHV$QDO\VLV x *HQHULF&DSDELOLWLHV$QDO\VLV 

John L. Dargan et al. / Procedia Computer Science 28 (2014) 347 – 353

351

7KH UHVHDUFK GLVFXVVHG LQ WKLV SDSHU XVHV WKH &DVV%HWK WRRO¶V 5HTXLUHPHQW 7H[W $QDO\VLV VHUYLFH WR DVVHVV OLQJXLVWLF TXDOLW\ RI WKH NH\ SHUIRUPDQFH SDUDPHWHU VWDWHPHQWV IRXQG LQ WKH '+6 DQG 'R' 25'V  7KLV VHUYLFH XWLOL]HVDGHIDXOWUXOHVHWWRDQDO\]HZRUGDQGSKUDVHSDWWHUQVWKDWW\SLFDOO\UHVXOWLQOHVVWKDQRSWLPDOUHTXLUHPHQWV +RZHYHUWKHGHIDXOWUXOHVHWFDQEHWXQHGLIQHFHVVDU\WRHQFRPSDVVXVHUVSHFLILHGLQVWUXFWLRQV)ROORZLQJLPSRUW RIWKHNH\SHUIRUPDQFHSDUDPHWHUVWDWHPHQWVWKHWRROJHQHUDWHVDUHSRUWWKDWLGHQWLILHVWKHOLQJXLVWLFTXDOLW\GHIHFWV LI DQ\ LQ HDFK NH\ SHUIRUPDQFH SDUDPHWHU VWDWHPHQW  7KHVH UHVXOWV DUH ELQDU\ HDFK TXDOLW\ PHWULF DPELJXRXV YDJXH XQWHVWDEOH DQG LQFRPSOHWH  LV HLWKHU GHIHFWLYH RU QRQGHIHFWLYH  ,Q WXUQ WKHVH ELQDU\ UHVXOWV VHUYH DV WKH LQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVIRUWKHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQPRGHO$VFUHHQVKRWRIWKH&DVV%HWKWRROLVSURYLGHGLQ)LJXUH EHORZ                                 )LJ6SHFLILFDWLRQ$QDO\VLV7RRO

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

352

John L. Dargan et al. / Procedia Computer Science 28 (2014) 347 – 353

3.1 Preliminary Observations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xpected Conclusions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

0HWKRGRORJ\ x

(QKDQFHWKHELQDU\ORJLVWLFPRGHOGHYHORSHGLQWKLVUHVHDUFKZLWK DGGLWLRQDOGDWDSRLQWV



x

&RQVLGHUXVLQJGDWDIURPRWKHUJRYHUQPHQWDJHQFLHVVXFKDV1$6$ DQGWKH)$$



x

8VHDOWHUQDWHSUHGLFWLRQPRGHOV

$OWHUQDWLYH0RGHOLQJ$SSURDFKHV

x

&RQVLGHU6XSSRUW9HFWRU0DFKLQH%D\HV&ODVVLILHURU.1HDUHVW 1HLJKERU



x

3LORWXVHRIWKHPRGHOLQDQHZV\VWHPVHQJLQHHULQJSURMHFW

3LORWLQJ

x

8WLOL]HPRGHODVIURQWHQGULVNPDQDJHPHQWWRRODQGDVVHVVKRZLWV XVHLPSDFWVFKDQJHVLPSURYHPHQWVLQUHTXLUHPHQWVVWDWHPHQWV

0RGHO(QKDQFHPHQW





 &RQGXFW RI WKH IXWXUH UHVHDUFK GHVFULEHG LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ ZLOO HQKDQFH PRGHO YDOLGLW\ DQG SURYLGH DGGLWLRQDO YHULILFDWLRQ WKDW LQVLJKW RQ SUREDELOLW\ RI VXFFHVVIXO RSHUDWLRQDO SHUIRUPDQFH EDVHG RQ SUHGLFWLYH PRGHOLQJ FDQ LQIOXHQFHUHTXLUHPHQWVGHFLVLRQVRQWKHIURQWHQGRIWKHV\VWHPVHQJLQHHULQJSURFHVV        

John L. Dargan et al. / Procedia Computer Science 28 (2014) 347 – 353

353

5HIHUHQFHV  *RQ]DOR*-)XHQWHV-/ORUHQV2+XUWDGRDQG90RUHQR³$)UDPHZRUNWR0HDVXUHDQG,PSURYHWKH4XDOLW\RI7H[WXDO 5HTXLUHPHQWV´5HTXLUHPHQWV(QJLQHHULQJ   *UDKDP'³5HTXLUHPHQWVDQG7HVWLQJ6HYHQ0LVVLQJ/LQN0\WKV´,(((6RIWZDUH   0DXFR00/HRQDUGL³$'HULYDWLRQ6WUDWHJ\IRU)RUPDO6SHFLILFDWLRQVIURP1DWXUDO/DQJXDJH5HTXLUHPHQWV0RGHOV´&RPSXWLQJDQG ,QIRUPDWLFV   )DOHVVL'*&DQWRQHDQG*&DQIRUD³(PSLULFDO3ULQFLSOHVDQGDQ,QGXVWULDO&DVH6WXG\LQ5HWULHYLQJ(TXLYDOHQW5HTXLUHPHQWVYLD 1DWXUDO/DQJXDJH3URFHVVLQJ7HFKQLTXHV´,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ6RIWZDUH(QJLQHHULQJ   *QHVL6*7UHQWDQQL))DEEULQLDQG0)XVDQL³$Q$XWRPDWLF7RROIRUWKH$QDO\VLVRI1DWXUDO/DQJXDJH5HTXLUHPHQWV´&RPSXWHU 6\VWHPV6FLHQFHDQG(QJLQHHULQJ   3DUN6$(EHUOHLQ)0DXUHUDQG7)XQJ³5HTXLUHPHQWV$WWULEXWHVWR3UHGLFW5HTXLUHPHQWV5HODWHG'HIHFWV´8RI&DOJDU\   9HUQHU-:(YDQFRDQG1&HUSD³6WDWHRIWKH3UDFWLFH$Q([SORUDWRU\$QDO\VLVRI6FKHGXOH(VWLPDWLRQDQG6RIWZDUH3URMHFW6XFFHVV 3UHGLFWLRQ´,QIRUPDWLRQDQG6RIWZDUH7HFKQRORJ\   %LEL6*7VRXPDNDV,6WDPHORVDQG,9ODKDYDV³6RIWZDUH'HIHFW3UHGLFWLRQ8VLQJ5HJUHVVLRQYLD&ODVVLILFDWLRQ´ 8RI7KHVVDORQLNL   7XUN:³:ULWLQJ5HTXLUHPHQWVIRU(QJLQHHUV´,(7(QJLQHHULQJ0DQDJHPHQW   5DZDW06'XEH\³6RIWZDUH'HIHFW3UHGLFWLRQ0RGHOVIRU4XDOLW\,PSURYHPHQW$/LWHUDWXUH6WXG\´,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI&RPSXWHU 6FLHQFH   (OLVK.0(OLVK³3UHGLFWLQJ'HIHFW3URQH6RIWZDUH0RGXOHV8VLQJ6XSSRUW9HFWRU0DFKLQHV´-RXUQDORI6\VWHPVDQG6RIWZDUH   &HUSD10%DUGHHQ%.LWFKHQKDPDQG-9HUQHU³(YDOXDWLQJ/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ0RGHOVWR(VWLPDWH6RIWZDUH3URMHFW2XWFRPHV´ -RXUQDORI,QIRUPDWLRQDQG6RIWZDUH7HFKQRORJ\   9DQGHU+HLMGHQ+³'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUWIRU6HOHFWLQJ2SWLPDO/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ0RGHOV´([SHUW6\VWHPVZLWK$SSOLFDWLRQV   .RKDYL5³$6WXG\RI&URVV9DOLGDWLRQDQG%RRWVWUDSIRU$FFXUDF\(VWLPDWLRQDQG0RGHO6HOHFWLRQ´ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RLQW&RQIHUHQFHRQ$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH   5RGULJXH]-DQG-/R]DQR³6HQVLWLYLW\$QDO\VLVRIN)ROG&URVV9DOLGDWLRQLQ3UHGLFWLRQ(UURU(VWLPDWLRQ´,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3DWWHUQ $QDO\VLVDQG0DFKLQH,QWHOOLJHQFH   -DQL+0DQG6$0RVWDID³,PSOHPHQWLQJ&DVH%DVHG5HDVRQLQJ7HFKQLTXHWR6RIWZDUH5HTXLUHPHQWV6SHFLILFDWLRQV4XDOLW\$QDO\VLV´ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI$GYDQFHPHQWVLQ&RPSXWLQJ7HFKQRORJ\   

Suggest Documents