Problem structuring in transport planning: Cognitive mapping

A paper presented at the 11th World Conference on Transport Research (WCTR), Berkeley, US

Problem structuring in transport planning: Cognitive mapping approach Hironori Kato (Lead and corresponding author) Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku 113-8656, Tokyo, Japan Phone: +81-3-5841-7451, e-mail: [email protected] Hideaki Shiroyama, The University of Tokyo Yoshinori Nakagawa, The University of Tokyo Takeshi Fukayama, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. Abstract: In this paper, we propose a method to analyze the problem perceptions of stakeholders and the structuring of these problems by using their cognitive maps. Here, we provide two case studies. These case studies reveal the effectiveness of the proposed method. The first case study shows that the successful generation of a potential agenda is possible. We also compare the stakeholders’ recognitions by means of an analysis of the problem perceptions of the stakeholders. Additionally, we analyze the interactions among the stakeholders by using a reciprocal expectation matrix. The second case study shows that this method is applicable even to disputes within local transport planning with regard to the introduction of a light rail transit system. Key words: transdisciplinary research, problem structuring method, transport planning, cognitive map, and potential agenda abstraction

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1. Introduction Transport is one of the most critical factors influencing global and local sustainability. Recently, the importance of interactions between transport planning and other policy/planning often have been highlighted for sustainable transport planning. For example, transport planning must be considered as a part of the land-use planning and development process, which requires an integrated approach toward the analysis (Banister, 2000, 2002; Goodwin et al., 1991). On the basis of this understanding, several recent publications have investigated various approaches on transport planning, including the proposal of new planning processes and new technical tools for transport planning (for example, Kane and Del Mistro, 2003; Loukopoupos and Scholz, 2004; Zegras et al., 2004; Walter and Scholz, 2007). Most of the transport researchers consider transport planning to be a public matter. Transport planning requires multiple participants to cooperate and contribute to the planning process, where a transport planner should understand their interactions (Wachs, 1995; Szyliowicz and Goets, 1995). Extensive interactions among the participants are advantageous to transport planning. Most of the transport researchers also agree to the fact that the transport system is enormous and diverse. The system includes economic, social, environmental, and technological subsystems. Transport planning should be inherently complex, and “problems” can be abstracted from this complex characteristic (Linstone, 1984). Further, it is considered that the complexity of the issues regarding transport systems requires a new planning methodology (for example, Banister, 2003; Szyliowicz, 2003). The new methodology may include (1) the establishment of a vision, (2) understanding the types of decisions, (3) assessing the opportunities and limitations, (4) identifying the near- and long-term consequences, (5) relating alternative decisions to the goals, and (6) providing the information to decision makers and assisting them to establish priorities (Meyer and Miller, 2001). The present study is also one such research that proposes a new method, focusing particularly on problem identification and problem structuring in transport planning. During the past decade, the definition of transport problems has changed as the problems associated with energy consumption, air quality, equity, safety, congestion, land-use impact, noise, and a further efficient utilization of fiscal resources in urban areas (Meyer and Miller, 2001, p.75). However, these problems may not be completely shared by the people. The problems may be recognized by various participants in a different manner. Recent studies suggest that the individuals’ decision often depends on the decision-making context, which is sometimes referred to as a framing effect (Tversky and Kahneman, 1981; 1986). The framing effect can also be observed in transport planning, particularly in the problem identification process. In order to identify transport problems, a transport planner should understand the multiple participants’ problem identification or perceptions with regard to the transport system as accurately as possible. Additionally, they should analyze the problem structure from a multidisciplinary viewpoint. When more participants are involved in the transport system, their perceptions of problem identification become more difficult to comprehend. The inaccurate speculation and misunderstanding of a participant’s problem perception may lead to a deadlock in building a consensus. A well-designed and sophisticated method for understanding the participant’s problem perception and its feedback to the stakeholders may strongly contribute to better planning and management of the transport system. Several studies have considered problem identification and problem structuring methods. They can be categorized into the following two types: (1) soft operational researches and (2) transdisciplinary researches. The former, which studies the problem structuring method, includes studies by Ackoff (1979), Checkland (1983), Eden and 2


Ackermann (2001), Friend (1987), Mason and Mitroff (1981), and Howard (1993). The latter includes studies by Hansmann et al. (2003), Loukopoupos and Scholz (2004), and Scholz et al. (2006). A series of transdisciplinary researches has been referred to as an “embedded case study” (Scholz and Tietje, 2002). The total framework of our case study is very similar to the embedded case study approach. The similarity can be observed in the analysis process and collaborative methods. With regard to the problem structuring method, the method proposed in this study may be the most similar to the approach of Eden and Ackermann (2001). They propose a strategic option development analysis (SODA). Here, they interviewed stakeholders to sketch their cognitive maps. Then, they integrate the maps into a comprehensive problem map to understand the overall problem structure. Although the cognitive map approach is useful to understand the interviewee’s perception, the completion of the maps generally requires a long time and incurs enormous costs. In addition, the simple integration of different maps does not reflect the interactions among the stakeholders. In this study, the proposed method improves the problem structuring method in SODA by reducing the cognitive-mapping requirements and highlighting the interactions among the stakeholders. This study aims to propose a practical method of problem identification and structuring for transport planning. We present two example cases. Our method is applied to (1) the strategic regional transport planning and (2) local transport planning in the Kanto region, Japan. This paper is organized as follows. Section 1 discusses the study background and its goals. Section 2 overviews the method proposed in this paper and its characteristics are described. Sections 3 and 4 present the first and second case studies, respectively. Finally, Section 5 abstracts the results and discusses future research objectives. 2. Proposed method and its characteristics 2.1 Method description In general, decisions are made and policies are formulated in response to the perceived differences between the desired state of affairs and the decision-maker’s perception and/or interpretation of the actual situation (Meyer and Miller, 2001). In this study, the proposed problem structuring method considers the participant’s perception of the transport problem. The principal goal of our method is to abstract the potential policy agenda by understanding the problem perception of the stakeholders. An overview of our method can be described as follows: First, we select the stakeholders in relation to the problem. A “stakeholder” is defined as a participant who can influence or be influenced by the corresponding transport problem. The manner in which a stakeholder is selected depends on the data availability. In the first case study, we utilize problem system maps corresponding with the policy targets in order to list the stakeholder candidates. This is because we were able to derive the system maps from the potential policy targets defined by the respective authorities. Such data was not available in the second case. Therefore, the local university professors provided their recommendations for selecting the potential stakeholders. Second, we sequentially interviewed the potential stakeholders in order to comprehend their problem perceptions. We sketch hypothetical cognitive maps by collating their profiles via literature surveys or Web searches. The map contains the following three types of items: (1) non-highlighted items, which represent causal factors influencing other factors and/or result factors influenced by other factors; (2) oval symbols, which denote exogenous factors or factors that the stakeholder expects the other stakeholders to perform; and (3) square boxes, which represent the values required by the stakeholder. The arc connecting the items denotes a causal flow, which begins from a 3


causal factor and terminates at its result factor. We interviewed the stakeholders with their hypothetical maps. In the interviews, we requested the interviewees to reveal their behavioral targets, constraints, and expectations with the other stakeholders. On an average, each interview took around two hours; after explaining the aim of our research, the interviewers requested the interviewees to freely respond about the hypothetical maps. In most of the cases, two or three people were interviewed: most of these people were chief executives or officials responsible of managing their organizations. The interviewers consist of a study team from the University of Tokyo including us. Third, the cognitive maps are revised on the basis of the interview results. We delete the incorrect or less important factors or actions from the hypothetical map and insert additional factors or actions, if necessary. Finally, the maps reveal the following three perceptions of the stakeholders: (1) causal flows in relation to the problem, (2) impact flows in relation to the stakeholder’s current actions, and (3) interactions with the other stakeholders. Fourth, we integrate the stakeholder’s cognitive maps into a unified structure of transport problems. We collect the potential problems pointed out during the interviews with the stakeholders. In order to abstract the main factors, we discuss these problems in a 1. Selection of stakeholders The potential stakeholders are selected from a set of participants in relation to the problems. The potential policy targets presented by the authority or information obtained from local university professors is used for stakeholder selection. 2. Interviews with the stakeholders Hypothetical maps of the stakeholders are formulated via literature surveys or Web searches. The hypothetical map is sent to the interviewees in advance. The study team members sequentially interview the potential stakeholders. 3. Cognitive map modification The cognitive map is revised on the basis of interview results. The map indicates the stakeholder’s perception with regard to a causal flow in relation to the problem, impact flow in relation to the actions, and interactions with the other stakeholders. 4. Problem restructuring and policy agenda analysis The maps of the stakeholders are integrated via problem restructuring. The main factors and drivers are identified from the interview results. The potential policy agenda is abstracted from a factor-driver matrix. 5. Comparison of stakeholders’ recognition and their interaction analysis The problem recognition difference among the stakeholders and the interactions among them are analyzed. 6. Feedback to the stakeholders The analysis results are presented to the stakeholders via a workshop.

FIGURE 1: The proposed transdisciplinary problem structuring method proposed 4


meeting with the experts. The main factors are abstracted from the stakeholders’ behavioral goals (square boxes) or the factors near the goals in their cognitive maps that have social values. Further, we select the exogenous factors, referred to as “drivers,” which represent the background factors of the problems. The drivers are mainly selected from the oval-shaped factors in the cognitive maps of the stakeholders. Then, we abstract the potential policy agenda from a matrix consisting of the main factors and drivers. Fifth, we analyze the differences in problem recognition among the stakeholders. We discuss two approaches for performing the comparison. (1) A comparison on the basis of the viewpoints of the stakeholder’s mission, time, and spatial dimensions and (2) a comparison on the basis of the viewpoints of the stakeholder’s main concerns. These viewpoints are referred to as the stakeholders’ “recognition.” Further, we analyze the stakeholders’ interactions by means of a reciprocal expectation matrix. The stakeholders’ expectations of the other stakeholders are abstracted from the oval-shaped factors in the cognitive maps. We present both the analyses results in the first case study, while we present only the problem-perception-difference analysis in the second one. Finally, the analysis results are fed back to the stakeholders and an implication of our analysis is discussed. The first case study includes a feedback workshop. 2.2 Characteristics of the proposed method In this study, the proposed method has the following four characteristics. First, our method highlights not only the interactions among the stakeholders but also the interactions between the analysts and stakeholders in transport planning. The latter type of interactions is referred to as the “transdisciplinary” process. The analysts may be transport experts or local researchers. They collate information from the stakeholders and analyze them for the transport planner. Occasionally, even the conventional transport planning processes contain expert participation in the form of a technical committee managed by the transport planner in which the invited experts provide comments or advice to the transport planners. However, the role of the experts in the technical committee may be fairly passive. We expect that the experts and analysts would more proactively contribute to transport planning in the transdisciplinary process. The active interaction between the analysts and the stakeholders may be effective in terms of not only smooth data collection but also an extensive understanding of the transport planner by the stakeholder. This method may propose a novel role of the experts with regard to transport planning. Second, we employ an active interview approach for a stakeholder interview (Holstein and Gubrium, 1995). In this approach, we interview the stakeholders with hypothetical cognitive maps, which are formulated in advance. The use of these maps may be fairly critical not only to understand the interviewee’s perception but also to convey our intention to them. This means that the interview is not regarded simply as a tool for collecting the interviewee’s information, but the interviewer and interviewees join the same discussion and interact with their ideas on the perception of the interviewee’s problem identification. An interview of both the sides can be considered as a type of learning process. We are sure that the learning process itself has the ability to develop and establish better transport planning. Third, we determine the potential policy “agenda,” which is discussed in the corresponding transport problem by the factor-driver analysis. In general, each stakeholder may possess a limited perception on problem identification. If the transport planners extract the political agenda simply from the stakeholder’s idea, the extracted agenda may also be fairly limited. By analyzing the scope and range of the stakeholder’s recognition, we can extend the range of the problem structure and determine a completely novel potential political agenda. This may support the transport planners in searching the 5


transport planning agenda. Finally, we discuss the potential collaboration of the stakeholders by a comparison of their problem recognition and an analysis of the reciprocal expectation among them. A new collaboration is proposed by feeding back the analysis results to the stakeholders. Our proposal may also be useful for a transport planner to promote the new transport policy, which requires the stakeholder’s collaboration. 3. Case study I: Strategic regional transport planning in Kanto region, Japan 3.1 Case overview The Kanto region is one of the nine regions in Japan; it includes seven prefectures: Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Tochigi, Gunma, and Ibaragi. The region covers about ten percent of the total area of Japan and comprises over thirty percent of the total population of Japan. The region includes several megacities such as Tokyo, Yokoyama, Kawasaki, Saitama, and Chiba; it also includes rural areas on its fringes. The regional population—over thirty million (in 2006)—has gradually increased as a result of immigrants. The government agency has predicted that the regional population will keep increasing, although the total population of Japan has started to decrease since 2000. When the population trend of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area is investigated in detail, it is observed that the urban population has increased, whereas the rural population has decreased. One of the major reasons for this population decrease in the rural areas is the rapid aging of the rural societies. With regard to the transport planning system, no statutory planning exists for the regional transport system in Japan as of 2007. Although some informal regional transport plans exist, such as the regional railway master plan, they have no legal background, particularly for policy implementation and budgeting, and no holistic viewpoint. The strategic regional transport plan considered in this case study is regarded as one of the challenges to discuss the regional transport system in the Kanto region from a holistic viewpoint. In 2003, the Kanto Region Transport Bureau under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) initiated discussions on a strategic transport plan. The planning work was commissioned to the Kanto Regional Transport Council. The Kanto Regional Transport Council consists of academic researchers and local business organizations. One of the authors is a member of a working group organized by the Council. The Council discussed the strategic regional transport policy for two years; the policy was completed in 2005. The Council does not include the multimodal transport policy, but only the public transport policy. Although we utilize the information provided by the Kanto Regional Transport Council, we emphasize that the analysis in this paper is completely independent of the Council’s discussion. 3.2 Selection of the stakeholders In the Council’s midterm progress report, the Kanto Transport Bureau of MLIT proposed seven targets to solve the present transport problems of the Kanto region. They are as follows: (1) transport policy promotion for the aged population, (2) local and interurban transport improvement, (3) transport service improvement in the rural areas, (4) an efficient freight transport system, (5) environmental impact reduction, (6) safe and secure transport services, and (7) tourism promotion. We use these seven tentative policy targets to set the hypothetical policy agenda, which will be used in the stakeholder interview. First, we set the hypotheses on a causal relationship between the hypothetical targets. The problem system map reveals the causal chains including the causal factors and the corresponding result factors. We sketch causal flows from a specific problem along both 6


the upstream and downstream directions. The causal relationship is represented by using arcs and nodes in a system map. This map can reveal the stakeholders as well as their relationships with the system. The problem system map in relation to the policy target is sketched with the same concept as the stakeholder’s cognitive map shown later. After the system maps have been formulated, we list the stakeholder candidates by using these maps; several potential stakeholders are revealed in the Kanto regional transport system. This may indicate that the transport problem in the Kanto region is very complex. We select the interviewees including the following twelve stakeholders: three private rail operators including one urban subway operator, a public highway corporation, three prefectural transport authorities, a local bus operator, an automobile producer, a highway authority, a local tourism policy authority, and a local police agency. 3.3 Hypothetical cognitive mapping and its modification on the basis of the interview results We formulate the hypothetical cognitive maps of the stakeholders with regard to the regional transport problem in the Kanto region. We browse the stakeholders’ Web pages for the mapping process. The hypothetical maps are sent to interviewees before the interviews are conducted. We sequentially meet with and interview the representatives of the stakeholders. The interviews were started in April 2004, and they were completed in March 2005. Then, we revised the stakeholders’ activity targets on the basis of the interview results. Further, we eliminated the less important items from the original maps after we determined that the stakeholder does not regard these items as important factors. Additionally, we included the factors that the stakeholders consider as barriers for achieving their targets. We also included the factors that they expect the other stakeholders System change in stations (e.g., IC )

Constraint on the width of the sidewalk according to the building codes

Negative Antagonism of Local Inhabitant

Aging population

Distribution of subway maps to hotels

Station numbering

Easy access to the ground (e.g., barrier-free)

Measures to avoid fire Cost

Coordination with Travel Agencies

Expansion of the Subway Network

Improvement of Underground Improved Structures Rapidity Improved Convenience Earthquake Of stations Strengthening Multiple measures to Fight blackouts Safety

Mutual direct operations within the company

Providing information On areas along the lines Existence of Competitive railways

Coordination With tourist sites

Traffic demand From tourists

Cooperation with airlines

aging

Profit

Policy making by The central government

Enhanced values of Areas along railways

Law

Promotion of Human service Safety and regularity

Efficiency of Capital vehicles gain

Improvement of Environmental The image care

cost

Off-peak fare reduction

Increasing number of passengers

profit

Community money

comfort

charge

Installation of parking areas

Negative

Construction of overpasses

Law Regular Operation

Dissolution of Area split

Reduction of Economic losses

FIGURE 4: Railway operator B

Expansion of the highway network

Coordination with local community

Assistance of local government (e.g., subsidies)

Structural Alteration of stations

Negative

Earthquake strengthening

Family plan fare

Number of aged passengers Congestion reducing

Unwillingness to install Profit from New stations Related business

Cost reduction Environmental concern

Sustainability of the company

Figure 3: Railway operator A

FIGURE 2: Subway operator

Social contribution

Fare

Competition with Rival companies

Rapid aging and Very low birthrates

Profit

Number of people Visiting stations

subsidy

Increasing or maintaining the number of passengers Negative

Punctuality

Activization of Related business

City planning by the public administration

Attractiveness Of stations

Credibility

Mutual trackage agreement With other railway companies

Income

Negative

Peace of mind (particularly for the aged)

Reduced layover

Number of Passengers

Charge

Consensus building by the public administration

Safety and regularity

Negative

Release of New Products

Redundant space

Promoting Human service

Measures against terrorism

Mutual direct operations with other companies

Redundant staff

Strengthening consultant services

Safety

Measures other than constructing highways (e.g., pilot program for discounting charges

Reduction in congestions

English directional signs

Improved convenience for uses

Following central government’s policies

FIGURE 5: Public highway corporation 7


Information services about parking areas through car navigation system Coordination Between local governments Pilot program of TDM Regulation of diesel cars

Reduced cars parked in the streets

Quadruple traps Barrier-free Smooth connection by smaller local by smaller local governments governments

Information services at bus stops

Enhanced safety and convenience of buses

Maintaining mobility

Improvement in existing lines

Investment in semipublic joint ventures

Constructing New lines

Enhancement in the public transport system Dissolution of disadvantaged areas

Environmental improvement

Reduced congestion

Subsidy, city planning, consensus building among local habitants…

Decline in local shopping district

Subsidy for bus companies

Dissolution of missing links of railways

Enhanced convenience of trains

Enhanced Accessibility To Narita from Tokyo Promotion of air freight Improvement of express highway system

Disclosure of traffic data of police agency

International competitiveness

Road Construction In Depopulated Area

Approval by central government

Internationalization of Haneda airport

FIGURE 6: Prefectural government A

transportation in depopulated areas

Reduction in environmental burdens

Enhanced accessibility to Haneda from Tokyo Utilization of Haneda arrport

Negative

project

Policy planning

Utilization of Use of Haneda airport for international air freight Narita Airport

Efficiency of freight

Financial difficulty

Provision of person trip data to bus Constructing roads for companies Modification of Road Construction tourism and industry in Cross-points, In Urban Area depopulated areas Scientific investigation Signal processing on relation between Profitable running property and bus lanes environmental burdens Reduced Balance between by central government Following the congestion urban and expressway Rural Areas construction Maintaining

Seamless fee

Modal shift

Completion of ring express highway system

Utilization of roaduse revenue for transportation

Promotion of Tourism And Industry

FIGURE 7: Prefectural Government B

Constructing new lines Improvement in Existing facilities Using freight lines for carrying passengers

Installation and Improvement in spaces for waiting for buses

Promotion of barrier-free

Mutual trackage agreement with other railway companies

Improvement of Existing lines

Convenience of stations

Reduced illegal parking by public sectors

Construction of new lines

Installation of new stations of Shinkansen super express

Improvement of Railway network

Smooth connection

Balancing among districts

Concern for depopulated areas

Investment in public works

Service for providing information Monitoring system on operation through mobile regularity Declining phones birthrate and the aging of Frequency of the society Less frequently Traffic operation Improved service used public transport Reduced of busmen to customers temporal Uncertainty Quality of bus bodies Children discount Discount for the aged

Installation of bicycleparking spaces Promotion of park and Rides

Cycles and bus rides

Traffic management In tourist sites

Reduced congestion

Subsidy

Demand for improvement in intersections

Sustaining bus businesses

Promotion of public transport

Negative Negative Number of Local Average revitalization customers In the future unit price

Consideration for the parliament

Cost

Environmental protection

Negative Improvements in hybrid technology Universal regulation of exhaust gases

Easier manufacturing control

Environmental Care

Coordination within public sectors (Police dept. and road sector)

Negative Ring express highway systems

Global-term increasing demand in the global market

Improvement in traffic intersections

Soft measures for Regulating illegal parking

Public opinion against road policies Dissolution of bottlenecks

Hard measures for regulating illegal parking

Improvement in technology for signal processing with police agency

Coordination among cars, human, and infrastructures Reduction in traffic accidents

Convenience and comfort of cars

TDM

Support for location of freight bases along express highways

Multimodal policies

Support for promoting LRT

Promotion of LRT

Smart Interchange Promotion of public transport Difficulty of balancing among Abundant districts road space

Promotion of Transit malls Japanese-style Scenic bylanes

Negative Installation of Road-side station

Creation of attractive spaces

Wider pathways

Long-term sustainability of car market

FIGURE 10: Automobile producer

Improved Environment

Reduced congestion

Promotion of ITS

Freight efficiency

Road construction for Improving accessibility to ports and airports

Long term sustainability of car market

Reduced traffic accidents

Flexible pricing on express highways

Enlarged traffic capacity

Negative Short-term profitability in domestic market

Contribution to local community

FIGURE 9: Local bus operator

Reduced congestions

Emission-reduction Of CO2

Maintenance of bus lines in depopulated areas

Sustainability of the company

Promotion of Introduction of Public transport environmental tax Soft and Hard system Measures Enhanced fuels efficiency

Reduced emission

Environmental protection

Profitability Negative

Maintenance of mobility

FIGURE 8: Prefectural government C

Tightening of emission regulations

Coordination with Maintenance of Local governments the number of customers

Negative

Demand for bus-priority signal system

Coordination with railway companies via IC system

Enhanced quality of services

Comfort Road management based on habitants’ demand

Growing public awareness

Attraction of cities

Promotion of tourism

FIGURE 11: Highway authority

to perform. The revised cognitive maps are shown in Figures 2–11. 3.4 Problem restructuring and policy-agenda analysis The potential policy agenda will be abstracted by using problem restructuring. The participation of the experts and multidisciplinary discussions are critical for these analyses. The authors, including a transport planner and public-policy analyst, are involved in the analysis. Further, we utilize the comments of other experts—mainly transport-policy researchers.

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Support for introduction of bus location systems


Selection of the main factors We abstract the following five main factors of problem restructuring on the basis of the interview results: - Transport quantities: a lack of transport supplies, including poor transport facilities in the rural areas and an insufficient investment in the ring-road network. - Transport quality: a low level of transport service and infrastructure quality, including traffic congestion and low traffic speed. - Transport marketing: insufficient efforts to generate new transport demand or promote the demand for a less-demanded service, including the promotion of foreign tourism and marketing for weekend transport services. - Environment: serious environmental impacts, including the lack of environmental technology/regulations and insufficient transport demand management. - Safety and security: dangers of traffic safety and security, including antiterrorism and disaster prevention. Selection of drivers The following five potential drivers have been abstracted on the basis of the interview results: (1) less young generation and more elderly generation, (2) the financial deterioration of the central and local governments, (3) global competition along with globalization, (4) land-use changes (e.g., recent movements of additional population into central business districts (CBDs)), and (5) higher social concerns with regard to the environment. Most of these potential drivers are considered with short-term viewpoints. This is partly because the time scale of the stakeholders’ problem perception is fairly small. Further, it should be noted that many of the potential drivers exhibit low risks or occur with a low probability. This is probably because they find it difficult to reach a consensus TABLE 1 Potential policy agenda in relation to the regional transport in the Kanto region Quantity of transport Quality of transport Transport marketing Environment Safety and security

Less young generation and more elderly generation

Barrier-free in transport Public transport Long-term tourism ， service improvement, in-home medical care network，mobility in irregular traffic rural areas transport

Social inclusion in Considerable changes rural areas in industrial structure

Globalization

Changes in land use

Transport suitable for compact citites

Greater number of women workers Higher social concerns with environmental issues Financial deterioration in governments Greater number of foreign workers Larger contribution to international society

Infrastructure management in rural areas Traffic service for foreign people

ICT-aided transport service

ICT-based transport marketing

Efficient freight transport and accessibility to airports Reducing traffic congestions

International tourism promotion

Meeting the needs of irregular traffic Off-peak time Public transport promotion and transport marketing efficient freight transport Utilization of existing facilities Traffic service for foreign people Model of transitoriented cities

Traffic safety for elderly people

Transport security and disaster prevention

Security measures for Urban environmental traffic services probems Transport security Global and urban environmental problems

Model of transitoriented cities

Security measures for traffic service Terrorism prevention

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for taking actions toward low-probability high-risk issues in their organization. These characteristics may bias the selection of the drivers. Thus, by means of the discussions with the experts, we consider the following additional drivers in order to avoid bias in the stakeholders’ perceptions: - Extensive changes in industrial structures: a change in the industrial structure from conventional heavy industries to knowledge-based industries can probably influence the freight transport patterns. On the other hand, the low-income population has a lesser opportunity to be employed in a knowledge-intensive industry, while the high-income population may have greater opportunities. This may increase the inequality in the level of incomes among the population. As a result, the social inclusion of the low-income population and accessibility improvement in public services may be included in the more important policy agendas. - Increase in the number of women workers: a new working style or nonconventional workers can emerge with the lack of labor force due to rapid aging of the working population. The penetration of work sharing employment system and part-time employment increase the irregular commuters. - Greater number of foreign workers: the globalization of the labor force changes the conventional work system into flexible work and English-language-based works. An increase in the number of foreign workers results in further investment toward internationalizing urban facilities, while urban security is included into the more important agenda. - Larger contribution to the international society: A larger number of international viewpoints from the international society are required. For example, since the Kanto region is one of the most successful public-transport-oriented megacities, many developing countries request Japan to share the knowledge about this system. - Catastrophic natural disasters: Japan encounters several natural disasters, which include earthquakes, typhoons, and floods. Since the Kanto region includes the national capital (Tokyo), robustness with regard to natural disasters is extremely critical. Policy-agenda abstraction The abstracted potential policy agenda is listed in Table 1. For this abstraction, the experts in our study team, including the transport planners and the public-policy researcher, extensively discuss the potential policy agenda. On the basis of these intensive discussions and analysis, we find out certain new agendas that have not been pointed out in the stakeholder interviews. For example, the combination of “a greater number of women workers” and “transport quality” generates the agenda in relation to “irregular transport.” The pair of “larger contribution to the international society” and “environment” generates an international contribution as the “model city with a sustainable transport policy.” The pair of “less young generation and more elderly generation” and “transport marketing” generates an agenda associated with “transport for long-stay tourism” and “in-house medical-care transport.” It might prove worthwhile to discuss these issues furthermore with regard to transport planning, although they have not been discussed in detail. 3.5 Comparison of stakeholders’ recognition and their interaction analysis Comparison of the stakeholders’ recognition We analyze the stakeholders’ perceptions according to the following five viewpoints: (1) the mission: “what the stakeholder pursues?”; (2) the networking range with the other stakeholders: “who are the major stakeholders that a stakeholder pays attention to?”; (3) the spatial-dimension range: “what is the spatial framework under which each stakeholder acts?”; (4) the environmental conditions: “what environmental conditions, including 10


technical, social, and institutional conditions, are important for each stakeholder?”; and (5) the time-dimension range: “what is the time framework under which each stakeholder acts?”. Table 2 summarizes the comparisons of the problem recognition of the stakeholders. First, stakeholders, even in the same category, have different recognitions. For example, although all the railway operators recognize the importance of networking with other railway operators, their attitudes toward railway networking varies along with their missions. Railway operator A shows a passive attitude toward collaborations with local governments and local communities in terms of station-space use and tourism promotion. On the other hand, railway operator B recognizes the importance of increasing the value of the railway neighborhood area and shows a proactive attitude toward collaborations with the local government and local communities in terms of local development. The subway operator’s concern regarding the local community is very limited; it is concerning the issue of connecting the underground regions to the surface. The prefectural governments recognize their lack of capacity in relation to the transport policy. One of the reasons is because they do not have their own regulatory authority in the local transport market. The other reason is because they have weak cooperation with the prefectural governments. Further, we find variations in the recognition of stakeholders, even those belonging to the same category. Prefectural government A directly provides the transport service to their area because it possesses municipal government functions. On the other hand, prefectural governments B and C do not provide a direct service because they include powerful municipal governments that are responsible of direct service provision. Prefectural government A shows a strong concern about the local transport service in their area, whereas prefectural governments B and C have other concerns, mainly in relation with the balance among the subregions in their area. Second, different stakeholders have different recognitions. With regard to the spatial dimension, the automobile producer pursues a leadership role at a global level. On the other hand, the concerns of railway operator A, railway operator B, and the bus operator are limited to their operating areas. With regard to the time dimension, private companies tend to have greater time recognitions, whereas governmental units tend to have smaller time recognitions. For example, the automobile producer has set the target year as 2050. One of the major concerns of the local bus operator is a sustainable bus market for the next generation. On the other hand, the governments whose officers usually move their positions every two to three years and with an annually fixed budget cannot have long-term viewpoints.

11

Sustainable and reliable operation, profit maximization

Safe and punctual operation

Railway operator B

++

ITS technology

Depopulation of some districts ITS Public technology opinions against road construction Anti-disaster Public technology opinions against road construction New fuel Kyoto technology Protocol

++

Depopulation Decentralization

Long-term investment plan

Highway authority's investment plan

Privatization

Laws on decisionmaking process of road construction and privatization Vehicle regulation

Sustainability of car-oriented society

Other plans

Lack of transport budget

Other plans

++

++

++

++

ITS technology

Other plans

DeDecentralization centralization

ITS technology

++

++

++

Aging society Deregulation

Life-cycle time of facilities and vehicles Company's sustainability

Life-cycle time of facilities and vehicles

++

++

++

++

++

++

++

++

++

Time domain of interest One Several Critical factors year years Life-cycle time of facilities and ++ ++ vehicles

Smart card technology

Change of environmental conditions Interaction with other Spatial domain of TechnoSocial Institutional stakeholders interest logical DeThe building Competition and Own network and Common farecard centralization standard law and the coordination with other other railway system road construction railway operators networks law connecting them Kanto region and Smart card Aging society Deregulation and Competition and technology with low privatization coordination with other neighborhood regions birthrate railway operators and coordination with airline companies Coordination with local Local area along Smart card Demand Fare regulation governmens the railway lines technology decrease

Profit maximization and contribution to local community Local area along Coordination of time Sustainability of the Local bus the bus routes company with local bus schedule with railway operator operators service Own prefecture Improvement in the Coordination with Prefectural local quality of life highway authority and and airport government A transit operators Inter-district balance Coordination with Own prefecture Prefectural and better interaction highway authority and government B with local council transit operators Own prefecture Inter-district balance Coordination with Prefectural highway authority and and environmental government C protection transit operators Traffic-congestion Coordination with policy Entire Japan Highway reduction, utilization of agency authority road spaces and local economy revitalization Coordination with police Own highway Follow the highway Highway public authority control and agency and truck network corporation association local-user communication Sustainable carCoordination with All over the world Automobile oriented society and vehicle regulator producer profit maxmization

Railway operator A

Subway operator

Missions

++

0

+

+

+

++

++

+

+

+

Middle term

++

0

0

0

0

0

++

0

0

0

Long term


TABLE2: Comparison of the problem recognitions of the stakeholders

12


Interactions among stakeholders: reciprocal expectation analysis Now, we identify the stakeholders’ networking range and their expectations toward the other stakeholders. The relationship among the stakeholders is listed in Table 3. The table includes airline companies and citizens who have not been interviewed thus far. Their expectations are hypothetically described on the basis of the results from the interviews with the experts. Each cell in Table 3 lists what the stakeholder in the vertical line expects from the stakeholder in the horizontal column to perform. A potential collaboration among the stakeholders is listed in Table 3. First, we identify the potential collaborations that are partly realized in practice. For example, there is a potential collaboration between the railway operators and airline companies with regard to the use of a common credit card system, tourism promotion, and airport access. A potential collaboration also exists among governmental units. The highway authority can collaborate with the public transport authority with regard to the use of gas tax revenues. The reallocation of the tax revenues to the public transport system can be a potential compromise, at least among these two stakeholders 1 . There is another potential collaboration between the local transport authority and the police agency with regard to transport demand management (TDM), the strict enforcement of illegal parking regulations, and the sharing of traffic data; however, their relationship is asymmetrical, that is, the police agency is strongly expected by the other stakeholders to perform something, although the agency does not expect a considerable amount from the other stakeholders. Second, we also identify the potential collaborations among the stakeholders that have still not been realized in practice. For example, first, there may be a potential collaboration among the automobile producer, highway authority, and police agency with regard to implementing countermeasures against global warming. The automobile producer owns the production technology, whereas the highway authority is responsible for infrastructure development and the police agency possesses the power to control the traffic flow. The highway authority will benefit if the illegal parking regulations are tightened by the police agency and automobile technologies are improved by the automobile producers. This is because they can improve the traffic capacity without any additional investment of their own. The police agency can also benefit by tightening the traffic regulations, while it expects the highway authority to invest further in highway development. This is because the police agency has lesser resources than the highway authority. The automobile producer has the incentives to support the highway authority as well as the police agency because they cannot earn profits from the automobile users unless the road and traffic services are well managed. Second, the automobile producer can collaborate even with the public transport operators. This is because they consider that they cannot achieve social support for a sustainable and global automobile society unless the automobile industry and public transport system effectively coexist. Further, they can collaborate with the public transport operators with regard to implementing countermeasures to deal with irregular transport demands. The local bus operators and railway operators may find a new business as a means of utilizing their capacity by providing special services to young people who are not regularly employed, elderly people, and part-time-working women. The automobile producer may find comparative advantages in an irregular transport market because such demand requires greater flexibility.

1

The current tax system does not allow gas tax to be allocated to the public transport system in principle. However, the tax revenue system is currently facing strong social pressure for relaxing this allocation rule. A recent example is that the gas tax revenue is used in the subway investment in Tokyo. 13

Subsidy to bus operation

Support to airport access improvement

Strong leadership in Highway investment Illegal-parking Coordination transit-oriented control and with other transport policy coordination with public sectors other public sectors

Strong leadership in Highway servicetransit-oriented level improvement transport policy

Local bus operators

Airline companies

Automobile producer

Citizens

Joint credit card and airport access improvement

Better road traffic Local transport Railway service management and improvement improvement road safety control

Highway investment Coordination for smooth bus operation

Subsidy to railway investment

Station area development, tourism promotion and parking facilities investment Coordination for smooth connections and common farecard introduction Coordination for Smooth connection at bus-only lane railway stations

Coordination for transprefectural transport policies Subsidy to railway investment

Subsidy to railway investment

Coordination in highway construction Coordination for TDM

Railway operators

Local governments

Highway investment

Control of bus and truck operators Joint subsidy to public transport

Police agency

Data sharing, Execution of Station area coordination for highway development and rail traffic congestions investment plan crossing improvement and traffic accidents reduction

Coordination for TDM

Local Railway operators governments Joint subsidy to Service-level control public transport

Corporation for intermodal policies

Reallocation of gas tax revenue to public transport investment Coordination among regional bureaus

Highway authority Police agency

Highway authority

Public transport authority

Public transport authority

Bus service improvement

Airport access improvement

No overcompetition

Coordination for bus-stop installation

Local bus operators Service-level control

Airline service improvement

No over-competition

Joint credit card, tourism and airport access improvement

Airline companies

Cheaper and higher performance vehicles

Non overcompetition

Automobile producer Compliance with gas emission regulations Improvement in vehicle safety

Support to sustainable caroriented society

More use of airline service

Greater use of local bus services

Support to station area development

Support to transitoriented policy

Support to highway investment

Support to transitoriented policy

Citizens


TABLE 3: Interactions among the stakeholders: What the stakeholders expect the others to perform

14


Furthermore, a potential collaboration can exist among the many stakeholders in the long-stay tourism business. The public transport operators can collaborate with the automobile service providers (e.g., rental car companies dealing mainly with tourists). There is also room for innovation by introducing a common seasonal ticket or card system for long-stay tourists that can be shared among various transport operators2. The local governments can provide sufficient incentives to promote tourism because they can obtain taxes from tourist activities. The participation of local farmers and hotels can prove to be important for ecotourism and participatory tourism. 3.6 Feedback to stakeholders via workshops After completing the analysis, we held a workshop with the stakeholders at the end of March 2005. Not only the interviewees but also other stakeholders were invited to the workshop; here, the analysis results were discussed. The total number of participants in the workshop was ten; it took around two hours. The participants pointed out the mistakes or misunderstandings in the revised cognitive maps shown by us. All the participants showed a greater concern, particularly with the cognitive maps of the other stakeholders. Further, they commented that a reciprocal expectation matrix seemed to be very useful in their decision making. 4. Case study II: Local transport planning in Kanto region, Japan 4.1 Case overview City X is located at the northern fringe of the Kanto region, which is one of the prefectural capitals in Japan. It has a population of about 450,000 (as of 2006) and an area of approximately 300 square kilometers. This city is well known as a typical automobile-oriented city of Japan. A CBD is located at the centre of the city area along with a main railway station. The main railway line runs from the north to south, whereas a river flows along the same direction in the eastern region of city. A large-scale industrial district is located in the eastern part of the river near the city; here, industrial factories exist, which mainly produce mechanical goods. Each morning, several workers working in the industrial factories commute from the CBD and/or its neighboring regions toward the industrial district. They create a large traffic demand, which seriously impacts the neighborhood traffic. In order to reduce traffic congestion, a public transport system connecting the CBD with the industrial district has been proposed since 1993. The original proposal included a monorail system and an automated guideway transit (AGT) system. The city transport authority suggested a local transport plan in 1996 that included the introduction of a new bus rapid transit (BRT) system. The new BRT system has been planned to run from the eastern to the western part of the city crossing the railway line at the central railway station. In 2001, the prefectural transport authority in prefecture Y proposed another transport plan that included a light rail transit (LRT) system instead of the BRT system. Following this proposal, the city and prefectural transport authorities jointly started to investigate the feasibility of introducing the LRT system. After two years, the feasibility study proposed the introduction of a fifteen-kilometer-long LRT system. They suggested that the project’s mission should include not only a reduction in traffic congestion but also CBD revitalization, environmental impact reduction, and the social inclusion of the aged population. Further, they estimated the project costs and travel demands. According to 2

Long-stay vacations are not so popular in Japan during the summer season. Recently, the central government has proposed long-stay tourism. 15


their estimation, the project costs cannot be covered by the fare revenue, which implies that the project is unfeasible from the financial viewpoint. In 2003, the then-governor of the prefecture suddenly appealed his opposition against the LRT proposal based on the reported project evaluation. The governor presented two counterproposals: (1) discussions about the project should be discontinued for around five years and (2) the prefectural authority will provide no financial support to the project. Although the latter proposal may allow the city authority to independently promote the project, the city authority undoubtedly cannot afford the project cost. The city mayor held several citizen-participated meetings to ensure their support to the project; he also requested the prefectural transport authority to support the LRT project. The governor’s election was held in December 2003. In this election, the ex-governor opposing the project lost his chair, while the ex-mayor promoting the project was elected as the new governor. A new city mayor who supported the project was elected in the mayor’s election after the ex-mayor became the prefectural governor. An additional feasibility study was started in 2004; it is planned to conclude in 2007. The local transport planning is still continuing and has not yet completed its process in this case. Thus, the following subsections will discuss the temporal analysis results that have been completed. 4.2 Selection of the stakeholders We began by examining the case of the literature survey. The literature includes newspaper articles, project feasibility reports, Web pages on the Internet, and other related materials. We selected the potential stakeholders from the literature survey results. Then, we visited the local university professors who have been involved in this case since a long time. We were presented the planning process and the current status by them. During this visit, we requested them to provide information regarding the stakeholder candidates. Since they have served as chairpersons in technical surveys as well as assumed roles of opinion leaders in local discussions, they have different experiences and knowledge about the human relationships within the local community. Thus, we followed their advice in selecting the stakeholder candidates. The stakeholder candidates include the prefectural transport authority, the city transport authority, a chairman of the city council, a local railway company, a nonprofit organization promoting the introduction of the LRT system, the prefectural council members opposing the introduction of the LRT system, a representative of the CBD shopkeepers union, a member of the industry’s labor union, and a newspaper publisher. 4.3 Hypothetical cognitive map of the stakeholders and its revision on the basis of the interview results We formulated the stakeholders’ hypothetical perceptions with regard to the local transport planning in city X. We browsed the Web sites provided by the stakeholders and sketched the cognitive maps according to this data. We portrayed the cognitive maps in the same way as that in the first case. Then, we sequentially interviewed the stakeholders in September and October 2006. We revised the maps after the interviews. The revised maps are shown in Figures 12–19. 4.4 Problem restructuring and policy-agenda analysis In this case study, the agenda was fairly clear. All the stakeholders were more or less concerned with the introduction of the LRT system. However, the problem perceptions seemed to vary among the stakeholders. The problem was restructured by using a factor-driver matrix. 16

A paper presented at the 11th World Conference on Transport Research (WCTR), Berkeley, US Insufficient information from the university

Insufficient propagation of information on government’s opinion by media

Insufficient information from the government Baseless statement of the former governor on unprofitability

Lack of information on external effects and profitability of LRT

Citizens’ insufficient understanding of public transports

Collaboration with the governments CSR

Citizens’ insufficient understanding of LRT

(Universally (Enhancement of designed city) attractiveness of the areas along the line)

Nonexistence of future visions of politicians Proposing visions of ideal public transportation system

Caravan

Collaboration with other citizen groups

Collecting and editing information

Pro-LRT consensus

Establishing regional brand

Introduction Of LRT Decline in the number of buses Negative

Number of railway users

Negative

Directional guidance of public opinion

Introduction of LRT


Unsustainability of the city

Negative

Business consignment to subsidiary

Understanding of issues by citizens

Dependence On automobiles

Cost reduction

Profit of railway

Concentration of the city

Reduction Convenience in traffic for elderly Invigoration congestions people of the central city

Profit of Bus business

Number of bus users

Car-parking tower Negative

FIGURE 12: NPO promoting the LRT system

Profit of the related hotel Profit from side businesses

(Appropriate traffic demand estimation of LRT)

Grasping amount of deficits

(Investigation of other options than LRT )

In-depth investigation Reduction in of ambiguous uncertainty on values like future traffic “environment congestion ally friendly”

Comparison with other alternatives

Close investigation of merits Understanding of the public

Close investigation of demerits

Legitimacy of decision process

(Referendum)

（Completion of ring road surrounding central city）（Introduction of LRT）

Traffic congestion

Local private companies’ (Improvement (Exclusion of cars from bus lanes) countermeasures in intersection)

Reduction in congestion Symposium

Aging of the society

Bulletin Community bus

Profit of the related construction company

FIGURE 13: Local railway operator

Amendment of laws on urban planning (In-depth investigation of (Waiting for the ambiguous construction of values like “Japan’s earliest a bridge at the bottle neck) LRT”)

Collaboration of the local government in the field of construction

(Introduction of community currency)

Profit

Enhancing quality of life

(Assessment of the effect of technological innovation on environmental improvement)

Introduction of Suica system for buses

Profit of the related department store

Invigoration of the central city

Profit from business from transportation

Collaboration with the local government in the fields other than construction

Welfare taxi

Convenience of vulnerable road users

FIGURE 14: Prefectural council members opposing the LRT system

Location of largescale retail stores inside urban area

Flow of customers to Spill of the central city customers Regular to suburbs cleaning Regulation Negative Invigoration of on parking the central city

Negative

Regulation of unburdening on roads Unfairly expensive fixed asset tax at Decrease of Difficulty in the central city customers shop Negative operations Negative Decrease Continuing in profit business at Negative ancestral place Frustration over

Maintenance of community

the government Opposing LRt

（Reduction in fixedasset tax）

（Installation of parking area in the central city）

subsidy

Budget constraints

Negative assist of police festival Measures for local security

（Education）

（Let the next generation lay importance on a central city with a long history and traditional culture)

Disclosure of info on LRT

Fairness

FIGURE 15: CBD shopkeepers’ union

Selection of the main factors We abstracted the following four main factors from the interview results: - Sustainability of the city: serious environmental impacts due to excessive dependence on automobile usage, low mobility of the elderly population, and population decrease. - Local economy: low vitality in the central area, whereas a greater number of shopping malls in the suburban areas. - Efficiency and safety of the transport system: traffic congestion during the peak hours and the traffic safety of the local communities. - Financial viability: operation costs that cannot be covered by fare revenues and low LRT demand. Selection of the drivers The following drivers were abstracted from the interview results: less young generation and more elderly generation, financial deterioration of the central and local governments, and interpretation of LRT problem as a voting issue to election candidates. The interdisciplinary discussions among the experts including the authors resulted in the 17

A paper presented at the 11th World Conference on Transport Research (WCTR), Berkeley, US People’s view of LRT issue as a political confrontation

Insufficient traffic capacity around the company

Inconvenience to neighbors

Agreement between employers and employee Corporation of police agency

Countermeasures inside the company including ①off-peak commute　 ②commute bus ③park and bus ride ④facilitation of buses and bicycles

Adaptation of cycle of traffic signals

Negative Budget constraint of （Bridge construction by the government the government）

Public understanding about the fact that bridge construction does not lead to reduction of traffic congestion

Negative

Reduction in Compact city traffic congestion

Disclosure of information on LRT

Agreement of bus companies

Negative Marginal investment on infrastructure for automobiles

(Activation civic actions of both approving and opposing citizens)

Fact sharing through study meeting

(Diversion of surplus money of the guild for urban development )

Sustainability of the city

FIGURE 18: City’s council member

Lack of east-west transportation axis

Budget constraint

Introduction Of LRT Negative Budget constraints

(Burden of the cost on the city government)

Fiscal soundness

negative Introduction Of LRT

Transportation system combining cars and LRT

Securement of mobility

(Enhancing transparency of the decision process of LRT)

Playing prefecture government’s role for LRT introduction

Vision sharing of LRT among citizens

Public transportation Meeting with Decreasing System combining more people running cost of LRT and buses Increasing demand when outing LRT Compact of fashion industry city Improvement of Maintenance of environment of Declaration of fiscal discipline the city intent that we will Enriching of Economic Kyoto reduce CO2 boom public services protocol Enriching of public Emission on medical care services on medical care Information Good from the university Maintenance and Image increase of population of the city Guidance toward the persuasion of people’s agreement on LRT

Maintaining the identity of the culture and history of the city

FIGURE 17: City’s transport authority

Some councilor’s misunderstanding of legal facts Some councilors’ opposition

Agreement of the prefecture council

Convenience for elderly people

Invigoration of the central city

Workers’ comfort

Public opinion laying importance on profitability

Agreement of the city council Securing revenue

Introduction of LRT


FIGURE 16: Local industry’s labor union

(LRT planning considering its collaboration with buses)

Considering measures against deficit

Public understanding of LRT

Harmony between automobiles and public transport

Dissolution of frustration over the government

Disagreement between bus companies

(Traffic-demand prediction with high precision )

Precise Public understanding on understanding the vision of LRT- of the amount of deficit based city planning

Clarifying that the government will break away from excessive automobiledependency

Negative

Reduction in Reduction of time and cost Traffic of commute accident

Reduction in adversity of neighbors

Location of the company outside the governorate

Spill of corporate tax outside the governorate

Request for bridge construction

Reduction of traffic congestion

Environmental improvement of the surrounding areas

Highest corporate tax payment in the prefecture

Frustration over the government

Uncomfortable commute

(Setting the environment for discussion about LRT)

The government attracts the company

Traffic congestion

Cool report by media

Subsidy for buses

Securing east-west transportation axis crossing cities and towns

Development of regions along east-west axis

Balanced development of the prefecture

FIGURE 19: Prefectural transport authority

addition of the following issues: institutional changes in the transport funding system, regionalization, and the development of information technology. The first additional driver indicates that the transit service may be well subsidized by means of tax revenues (including gas tax reallocation), although the transit system cannot be effectively supported under the current funding scheme. The second additional driver indicates that the northern part of the Kanto region may be regarded as an independent region of Japan as a result of the recent decentralization discussions3. Policy-agenda abstraction The experts including the transport planners and public-policy researchers discuss the interview results to abstract the potential policy agenda. Table 4 lists the potential policy agenda abstracted from the factor-driver matrix. Since all the stakeholders consider the introduction of the LRT system as the main policy agenda in this case, the abstracted 3

Recently, the central government of Japan discussed the feasibility of regionalization. There are various proposals on how to divide the nation into regions. One of them suggests that the northern and southern parts of the Kanto region be separate. 18


TABLE 4 Potential policy agenda in relation to the introduction of LRT system Less young generation and more elderly generation Financial deterioration in governments Interpretation of LRT problem as a voting issue to election candidates Institutional changes in transport funding system Regionalization

ICT development

Sustainability Local feeder bus system

Local economy Transit-mall introduction into CBD and new business for tourists with Low-cost sustainable Local revitalization by a transport policy along central government with LRT system subsidy

Efficiency and safety Financial viability Transport marketing for LRT use of elderly people

Additional bridge construction crossing the river by a central government budget Information provision Information provision to Information provision public about the economic to public about project to public about the assessment environmental impacts impact to local society of LRT introduction Transit-oriented Direct connection Additional transitdevelopment between LRT and related investment local rail network including park-and-ride Regional transport Coordination with Extension of LRT regional development/ planning consistent route and regional economic planning ticketing/fare system with LRT planning ICT-based local Smart card system advertisement system in introduction LRT service

Private-public partnership and new local tax introduction

Information provision to public about financial evaluation

Appropriate sharing of the investment cost among local governments LRT system as a regional symbol

policy agenda in Table 4 may be regarded as the conditional policy agenda. We determine the potential agendas that have not been explicitly pointed out in the LRT-introduction discussions. They include, for example, the “new local tax introduction,” “local stakeholder participation in the planning process,” “regional ticketing/fare system,” and “the LRT system as a regional symbol.” The present discussions on the introduction of the LRT system mainly focused on whether the LRT is required or not. They have not effectively examined the planning process regarding the introduction of the LRT system and the additional policy assuming that the LRT is introduced. In addition, they need to further discuss the legitimacy of the introduction of the LRT system. This discussion may require integrated regional spatial planning or transport planning that is consistent with the introduction of the LRT system. 4.5 Comparison of stakeholders’ recognition and their interaction analysis Comparison of the stakeholders’ recognition The interview results revealed that some stakeholders supported the LRT proposal, while others opposed it. Further, it indicated the reasons for the support or opposition of each stakeholder toward the proposal. We observed the disputed issues among the stakeholders and analyzed them. The experts of our study team including the transport planner and public-policy researcher discussed the interview results in detail for this analysis. The first is the difference in the stakeholders’ recognition on the project’s financial viability and its resources. The feasibility study revealed that the fare revenues obtained from LRT operations cannot cover its operation costs. Therefore, some prefectural council members criticized the introduction of the LRT system because of the lack of resources. Evidently, the local governments especiallyprefecture Y have suffered from the lack of tax revenues for several years. They do not propose a new LRT system, but do propose another transport system that can be introduced with a lesser investment. On the other hand, NPO and city council members who are promoting the LRT system suggest that the LRT system should be regarded as a public service with social benefits. In other words, they propose that the LRT system should be maintained by using tax revenues, even if the project is unfeasible purely financial term. The second is the difference in the recognition of the project purpose. In fact, the purpose of introducing a new transport service has changed from traffic congestion 19


reduction (in the original proposal) into the revitalization of the CBD and social inclusion (in the latest proposal). The labor union of the industrial companies is concerned only with the traffic congestion problem for the commuters, whereas the CBD shopkeepers union has strong concerns about the revitalization of the city center. We can also observe differences in purpose recognitions between the city and prefectural transport authorities. The former has a strong willingness to improve the local people’s mobility from a local viewpoint, whereas the latter considers the spatial balance among city X and other cities in prefecture Y. As a matter of fact, the prefectural transport authority has its own transport plan that includes the longer transport corridor passing through city X. The third is the difference in the approach toward the LRT problem. Many stakeholders consider that the introduction of the LRT system has been treated as not only a genuine transport-planning problem but also a political problem. As shown earlier, the prefectural ex-governor opposed the introduction of the LRT system, while the incumbent governor promotes it. The LRT problem was explicitly disputed in the last governor’s election. This means that the transport planning issue was interpreted as a voting issue for a candidate governor. In addition, although the ex-governor lost the governor’s election, he has been selected as a member of the House of Councilors following the governor’s election. Thus, the LRT issue is still one of the most controversial political issues in city X. However, the city transport authority and the prefectural transport authority want to treat the LRT problem as the genuine transport-planning problem. The fourth is the decision-process in relation to LRT introduction. The local experts and NPO promoting the LRT expect the city mayor to make a final decision on the LRT introduction, whereas the prefectural council members opposing the LRT consider that the local citizens should make the decision via a referendum. Interactions among stakeholders: reciprocal expectation analysis The relationship among the stakeholders is listed in Table 5. The table includes local citizens who have not been interviewed thus far. It also includes the newspaper company and local university professors, although their cognitive maps have not been sketched yet. Their expectations are hypothetically described on the basis of the results from the interviews with the stakeholders. Each cell in Table 5 lists what the stakeholder in the vertical line expects from the stakeholder in the horizontal column to perform. First, we identify the potential collaborations that are partly realized in practice. Table 5 revealed that there are many expectations in relation to the understanding of real facts about the LRT project. First, many stakeholders expect the local universities to analyze the travel demand and to examine the financial viability of the LRT introduction. Second, the city transport authority and the prefectural transport authority request the local industry’s labor union to understand the bridge construction impact. Third, the citizens’ basic knowledge and their participation are highly expected by many stakeholders. They may be satisfied by promoting the communication among the stakeholders or by sharing the information among them. However, we should note that the LRT introduction may not be supported even when more information relating to LRT is provided, because the financial facts or estimated demand may not support the LRT introduction. With regards to the interaction between the city transport authority and the prefectural transport authority, their main concern is focused on how to share the cost if the LRT is introduced. On one hand, they have suffered from the lack of resources. On the other hand, there has been a special development fund for the industrial district in the eastern part of the river near the city. This fund was collected from the local industry when they built factories and facilities in the industrial district. The fund managers include the city X and the prefecture Y. The purpose of the fund was originally to improve the 20

Leadership in promoting LRT and cost sharing

Reallocation of the industrial development area fund to LRT introduction and reduction of highway investment

Financial support LRT introduction

Presentation of visions Presentation of visions on public transport system on public transport system

Decision-making of financial resources for LRT introduction

City council Prefectural transport authority member promoting LRT

examination of LRT introduction

NPO promoting LRT

Revisions of asset tax rate, subsidy to local activities and investment of parking spaces around the LRT stops

Support to local transport service

Reassessment of bridge construction cost

LRT planning compatible with bus operation

Mayor's decision-making and disclosure of information on LRT planning

Local bus operator

Local universities

Local newspaper company

Mobility improvement, cooperation in improving the regional attractiveness and support to own business

Promotion of local public transport service, mobility improvement and cooperation in improving the regional attractiveness

Immediate construction of the bridge

Completion of the ring road and investment of parking spaces around the LRT stops

Local railway operator

provision about LRT planning

Local industry's Countermeasures against traffic congestion and information labor union

CBD shopkeepers union

after the bridge construction

Respect for Comparison of LRT with other Comparison of LRT Improvement of legitimacy in Prefectural council members planning process and comparison with other alternatives alternatives and decision-making after opposing citizens and deeper the bridge construction and decision-making of LRT with other alternatives opposing LRT

NPO promoting LRT

Prefectural transport authority

City council member promoting LRT

City transport authority

City transport authority

Basic knowledge about LRT system

Opposition against LRT in political debates



Basic knowledge about LRT system and higher concern with LRT issues

Decision-making

Consideration of the expected Consideration of the external effect of LRT project expected external effect of LRT project and reallocation of the industrial development area fund to LRT introduction


Prefectural council Local citizens members opposing LRT

Consideration of the expected external effect of LRT project

Introduction of communitybased currency


Balanced report about LRT issues in the paper

Transport demand analysis and financial analysis of LRT introduction Transport demand analysis and financial analysis of LRT introduction

Provision of information on LRT

Transport demand analysis and financial analysis of LRT introduction

Detailed report on LRT

Balanced report about LRT issues in the paper Report on city transport authority's idea

Local newspaper company

Local universities

Investment for Bus operation Transport demand analysis and financial consistent Connecting analysis of LRT railway and LRT with LRT introduction

Investment for Connecting railway and LRT

Bus operation consistent with LRT operation

Local railway Local bus operator operator

Right understanding of bridge Investment for Consideration of LRT Connecting construction impact and voluntary actions for decreasing railway and LRT project as a new business traffic congestion opportunity

Voluntary actions for decreasing traffic congestion

Right understanding of bridge construction impact

Right understanding of bridge construction impact

CBD Local industry's labor shopkeeper union s union


TABLE 5: Interactions among the stakeholders: What the stakeholders expect the others to perform

21


industrial district from various viewpoints. Although the fund includes the enormous amount of resources which may cover the cost of LRT introduction or the bridge construction, how to use the fund has not yet been decided. Thus, the city council members promoting the LRT expect the prefectural transport authority and the prefectural council members to support the reallocation of this fund to the LRT introduction project. It seems that even the prefecture side may find the advantage to utilize the fund from the viewpoint of prefectural welfare. The collaboration between them with regards to the fund use may guide them to the solution on the budget problem. Next, we also identify the potential collaborations among the stakeholders that have still not been realized in practice. For example, the prefectural transport authority, NPO promoting LRT and local universities expect the local railway operator to invest the facilities connecting the railway and the LRT line. The local railway operator expects the local transport authorities to promote the local public transport service, to improve the mobility and the regional attractiveness. The collaboration among them may make these stakeholders happier. 5. Conclusions In this paper, we propose a method to analyze the problem perceptions of stakeholders and structuring these problems by using their cognitive maps. We present two case studies. They show that the proposed method is fairly effective. The first case study shows that the successful generation of a potential agenda is possible. Further, we compare the stakeholders’ recognitions by means of an analysis of the problem perceptions of the stakeholders. Additionally, we analyze the interactions among the stakeholders by using a reciprocal expectation matrix. The second case study shows that this method is applicable even to disputes within local transport planning with regard to the introduction of an LRT system. We note that the second case may be a little different from the first case in terms of the meaning of agenda abstraction. The first case study abstracted the potential agenda without the given issue, whereas the second case study reexamined the potential agenda under the condition that the LRT introduction is given as a main issue. This paper showed that the proposed method can be used in both conditions. In this study, although the problem structuring method is mainly applied to transport planning, the method itself may be so general that it can be used for other purposes such as urban planning, educational planning, medical and public health planning, and so on. As a matter of fact, public policy studies have emphasized the importance of agenda setting along with the policy decision-making, policy implementation, and policy evaluation stages. For example, a conventional textbook for public policy studies (Dunn, 2004) includes an independent chapter regarding problem structuring in which various methodologies of problem structuring are discussed. However, even such textbooks do not clearly describe detailed methodologies to problem structuring according to the stakeholders’ perceptions. Thus, the method proposed in this paper may be expanded and can contribute to public policy studies. Although the proposed method overcomes some difficulties in the earlier problem structuring methods, several further research issues still remain. They can be categorized into two issues. The first one is the methodological issue. Here, we initially select the interviewees from a list of potential stakeholders, although it is ideal to interview all the potential stakeholders. This is simply because we do not have sufficient time and resources to interview all the potential stakeholders. We have to face this kind of resource limitation when we apply the methodology in practical world. However, the interviewee selection may bias the analysis results. Therefore, a method to prioritize the stakeholders should be 22


investigated. Then, the interview results depend considerably on the interviewed individuals. Although we attempt to meet with the persons who have sufficient knowledge and experience in their own organizations, the responses may vary from one person to another, even if the other person belongs to the same organization. A method to eliminate bias in the interviewee selection should be examined. Finally, the cognitive map depends on the individual who sketches the map. The selection of such an individual may also bias the results. The variations in the maps among such individuals should be investigated under the condition that the same interview results are obtained. The remaining research issue is about the analytical method, particularly with regard to the stakeholder’s problem recognition and potential collaboration. The first case study compares the stakeholder’s recognition mainly with regard to the spatial and time dimensions. Although they definitely are important items, other items may also influence the stakeholder’s recognition. The second case study does not prepare such dimensions but use the stakeholder’s recognition for the comparison. We should examine other viewpoints for a better recognition analysis. Further, the potential collaboration in our case studies is limited to the collaboration that entails a win-win situation for each stakeholder. Although it is undoubtedly important to identify the win-win criteria, the public policy alternatives are, of course, not limited to such criteria. In some cases, it might be more important to make decisions that result in losses to specific stakeholders when the social benefit is substantial. Thus, it is necessary to identify under what conditions it is impossible to determine the win-win options using our problem structuring method. Furthermore, there is an uncertainty in some drivers, which can influence the stakeholder’s perception. Scenario planning can be useful to consider this uncertainty (Martelli, 2000; Wilson, 2000; Zegras et al., 2004). However, earlier studies considering this scenario analysis do not explicitly analyze the interactions among the stakeholders. There might be room to investigate it further. Finally, it should be noted that the potential agenda abstracted from the problem structuring method shown in this study are the agenda candidates, which are further discussed in the decision-making process. To proceed with the planning process, we should select a specific agenda from a set of potential policy agendas with certain selection criteria. The decision makers should discuss and decide the selection criteria by selecting the values for public welfare. The values may include economic efficiency, social equity, government financial balance, and so on. This selection is one of the most important planning processes; however, the methodology for selection of the value is not well developed thus far. This forms a future research issue that should be considered. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was funded by the Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS) project organized by the University of Tokyo and Science Grant (Kagakukennkyuuhi B) of MEXT (Ministry of Education, Science and Technology) of Japan. We appreciate the useful advice of Professor Scholz, R. W. and Walter, A. I. (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich) with regard to our research project. REFERENCES Ackoff, R. L. (1979) Resurrecting the future of operational research. Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol.30, 189–199. Banister, D. (2000) Sustainable urban development and transport—A Eurovision for 2020. Transport Review, Vol.20, 113–130. Banister, D. (2002) Transport Planning, 2nd Edition, Spon Press, New York. Banister, D. (2003) Critical pragmatism and congestion charging in London. International 23


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Problem structuring in transport planning: Cognitive mapping

Problem structuring in transport planning: Cognitive mapping

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