dynamic simulation for development of the ...

International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp.173-182 (2010)

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DYNAMIC SIMULATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL GAME IN TAIWAN Chih-Tung Hsiao1, Hui-Ling Peng2* and Hui-Hua Huang3 1 Department of Economics Tunghai University Taichung (40704), Taiwan 2 School of Management Da-Yeh University Changhua (51591), Taiwan 3 College of Business Feng Chia University Taichung (40742), Taiwan 3 Department of Marketing and Logistics China University of Technology Hsinchu (30301), Taiwan

ABSTRACT Baseball is one of the most important sports in Taiwan, but Taiwanese professional baseball has faced major challenges. Consequently, many skilled baseball players from Taiwan choose to pursue careers in the United States and Japan. Baseball has been the most popular sport in Taiwan since 1968, but professional baseball was not organized until 1990. In reality, the operation of professional baseball is subject to the impact of factors such as parent corporations, sponsorship, media, fans, teams, players, advertisers, other leisure organizations, player ethics, and the social environment. These factors interact with each other and form a complex and dynamic system. This paper uses system dynamics to examine the system structure of the development of Taiwanese professional baseball from 1990~2008, increasing understanding of the system behavior of Taiwanese professional baseball, simulating the developmental trends of Taiwanese professional baseball in the future, and discussing related strategies. Keywords: System Dynamics, Professional Baseball, Sport Industry

*

1. INTRODUCTION

The standard of education for people in Taiwan has risen in the past 40 years, raising the standard of living and emphasis on leisure activities. These developments have led to the establishment and development of professional sports in Taiwan. Following the retrocession of Taiwan, baseball has gradually become an important sport on the island. After the Taiwanese “Red Leaf” Little League Baseball team defeated the world champion Japanese little league baseball team in 1968, Taiwan won a total of 13 World Little League championship titles between 1969 and 1982. In the 1980s, the Taiwanese “four-level baseball” comprising little league baseball, youth baseball, junior baseball, and adult baseball won global attention for Taiwan. In 1984, the Taiwanese adult baseball team won the bronze medal *

Corresponding author: [email protected]

at the summer Olympics in Los Angeles; the team followed with a silver medal at the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona. These victories led to global recognition of the strength of Taiwanese baseball. Over decades of development, baseball has become Taiwan’s “national sport.” The establishment and appearance of professional sports can be said to be the ultimate end of the development of amateur sports [34]. Complete development of professional baseball can be an index for measuring the level of national baseball ability. The establishment of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 1990 brought Taiwanese baseball from amateur to professional, and baseball became a major component of leisure for Taiwanese people as a result [27,31]. Yilmaz and Chatterjee [36] suggested that when professional baseball enjoys vigorous development, player salaries, baseball group income, broadcasting rights, and sales of team merchandise become important sources of income for baseball

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International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol. 8, No. 3 (2010)

teams and facilitate the operation of baseball teams. It took 14 years for the first profitable baseball team in Taiwanese professional baseball to appear – the Brother Elephants [20]. Team income is an important factor in the sustained development of professional baseball, causing team income to be an important topic in the development of Taiwanese professional baseball. The development of professional baseball is subject to the influence of both social and internal organizational factors. In the development of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan, a series of mobster match-fixing, player hit-fixing and team dissolutions occurred in 1996, 2005, and 2008 (7, 16, and 19 years after the establishment of professional baseball), greatly reducing the number of fans and exacerbating financial losses for teams; a number of teams were dissolved due to operating difficulties [23]. Government and related authorities intervened and investigated the scandals, and Taiwanese baseball experienced a number of years of serious difficulties. The operations of professional baseball include the factors of parent corporations, sponsorship, media, fans, teams, players, advertisers, other leisure organizations, ethical views of players, and the social environment; the development of professional baseball includes factors such as the long-term training and development of players and coaches, the operations of parent corporations, ticket-buying by fans, the impact of player salaries on team performance [21,34], the social environment, and sports ethics [19]. These factors form a complex and dynamic system. This study focuses on the structure of the development of Taiwanese professional baseball. We first summarize the history of the development of professional baseball and summarize the developmental history and characteristics of Taiwanese professional baseball. We then use system dynamics to examine the developmental structure of Taiwanese professional baseball and attempt to present a dynamic model for the development of professional baseball and explain system behavior to increase understanding of the Taiwanese professional baseball system and perform strategic simulation in hopes of benefitting the development of Taiwanese professional baseball.

2. HISTORY AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL IN TAIWAN 2.1 The History of the Development of Professional Baseball in Taiwan Taiwanese baseball has its origins in Japan. In 1968, the Red Leaf Little League team opened a new chapter for the development of Taiwanese baseball. Over 40 years of development, exceptional players have emerged and have gone abroad to American and Japanese teams, deeply influencing the development of Taiwanese baseball. Members of the sports industry believed that Taiwanese baseball should develop towards professionalization and established the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) in 1980; the league began play in 1990. Thereafter, the Taiwan Major League (TML) began operations in 1997, beginning an era of competition between the two leagues [28]. In this study, we divide the history of the development of professional baseball in Taiwan into three major eras: 1. 1987-1994: the founding period – the professional baseball promotion council was formally established in 1987, and the CPBL opened with four teams. 2. 1995-2002: the competition period – the establishment of a second professional league led to opposition between teams, which sought to recruit each others’ players; match-fixing scandals occurred during this period, deeply affecting Taiwanese professional baseball. 3. 2003-2009: the merger period – finding it unprofitable, the TML reduced the size of its organization and merged with the CPBL. However, negative events such as match-fixing and team dissolutions occurred in 2005 and 2008, once again negatively impacting the development of Taiwanese professional baseball. 2.2 General Characteristics of Professional Baseball and Characteristics of Taiwanese Professional Baseball The general characteristics of professional baseball and the characteristics of Taiwanese professional baseball are summarized below from related historical sources, literature, and actual observation of professional baseball behavior abroad and domestically, as well as interviews with the marketing supervisor of the case team examined in this study, the Brother Elephants [8,17,35].

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2.2.1 General Characteristics of Professional Baseball 1. Baseball is a sport with detailed division of labor In a game of baseball, players play both offensive and defensive roles. When a team is attacking, players are arranged in a batting order from 1-9. When a team is defending, the positions are pitcher, catcher, shortstop, (3) infielders and (3) outfielders (for a total of 9 defensive positions) and the players must adjust their roles according to their positions. Consequently, in training, players must work with batting coaches, pitching coaches, and fielding coaches for specialized training for the various defensive positions [26]. 2. Game times are longer than in other sports Baseball games do not have specific lengths of time. A typical nine-inning game will last at least 2 1/2 hours, making baseball a sport with relatively long game times. The average game time in the American Major League 2004 season was 2 hours and 47 minutes [29], while the average game time for the CPBL was 3 hours and 10 minutes. 3. High demand for reserve players Baseball seasons are long and baseball players can be considered consumables. Pitchers and fielders must be replaced often in a game to avoid injury due to overexertion. In a formal professional baseball game, a team can register 25 formal players and any number of reserve players [4]. 4. Easily affected by weather Baseball games are usually held outside. In the event of rain, umpires have the right to put a game on hold or end a game. As a result, baseball games are more easily affected by weather than other sports are. 5. Well-funded teams can more easily maintain their strength Einolf [7] argued that there are three factors in the willingness of managers to establish a baseball team: team performance, team revenue, and a sense of accomplishment from the team [7]. Some teams pay large sums of money to attract exceptional free agents to help strengthen them especially, if they are performing badly and are unwilling to wait for the normal development of their players. Consequently, well-funded teams can more easily maintain or improve their strength.

2. Consumers limited, mainly students The total number of attendees at CPBL games in 2004 (15 years from the start of professional baseball) was 1.05 million, a figure which fell to 1.0085 million in 2005. Tickets sales were reduced. The primary consumer category was students, at 56.9%. Students have relatively low consumption capability and make correspondingly lower rates of baseball-related merchandise purchases [4]. 3. Player salaries far lower than those in other countries. In using the GDP figures published by the World Bank in 2008 as a basis for comparison [33], the Taiwanese professional baseball player with the highest salary, Ching-Feng Chen, enjoys an annual salary of approximately USD 303,000; by contrast, the highest-paid player in the American MLB, A-Rod of the Yankees, is paid USD 27,500,000, a salary over 90 times higher than Ching-Feng Chen’s. The GDP of the US is approximately 36.3 times that of Taiwan’s. Ichiro Suzuki, the highest-paid Asian player in the MLB, is paid an annual salary of USD 17,000,000, 52 times more than Ching-Feng Chen is paid. Japan’s GDP is approximately 12.55 times that of Taiwan’s. The highest salary in Japanese professional baseball is paid to Seung-Yeop Lee, a Korean; Lee enjoys an annual salary of USD 6,700,000, a salary 22 times that of Ching-Feng Chen’s. In Korean professional baseball, Jung-Su Shim of the Samsung Lions is paid a salary of USD 1,060,000, constituting a figure 3.5 times that of Ching-Feng Chen’s. Korea’s GDP is approximately 2.37 times that of Taiwan’s. As can be seen, the annual salaries of Taiwanese professional baseball players are far lower than those of players in other countries. 4. Low player turnover rates Taiwanese professional baseball lacks a free agent system. If a player wants to move to another team, he must first obtain the consent of his original team. In countries with free agent systems, players obtain free agent status when they have completed contracts with their original teams, allowing teams to compete for free agents [4,8].

2.2.2 Characteristics of Taiwanese Professional Baseball 1. Small baseball-playing population, limited talent available Baseball talent in Taiwan is very limited. Annual high school tournaments are attended by a mere 20~30 teams. There are relatively few sources of players, making it difficult for professional teams to find strong players from drafts.

3.1 System Dynamics The System dynamics (SD) methodology believes that the behavior of a system is principally caused by the system structure [5,10,11,12]. Uncovering the structure of a complex system requires mastery of concepts such as feedback, stocks and flows, time delays, and nonlinearity [32]. Senge [30] expanded system dynamics to organization studies in The Fifth Discipline, gaining attention in both academic and business circles [30]. Hsiao [18]

3. METHODOLOGY AND MODELING

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argued that to resolve the modern socio-economic problems, we need to utilize the Systems Thinking with holistic view, instead of over-detailed specification knowledge, to provide a complete set of policies [18]. This method has been applied in various industrial studies to explore systemic structures and improve policymaking processes. For example, Andrew Ford in 1997 implemented SD approach and it contributed to useful change in the electric power industry [9]. Jan and Hsiao [22] researched the development of the automotive industry and applied SD to analyze review of the research literature. Chen and Jan [3] analyzed the development experience of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, in order to provide better insight into the long-term industrial development process. Chang et al. [2] interpreted the profit structure of the automobile regional dealers in Taiwan to explore the system behavior using SD methodology. Hsiao et al. [16] proposed a dynamic model for elementary school teachers in Taiwan from a holistic perspective, simulating teacher labor trends. Kiani et al. [24] proposed a better understanding e-Business models using causal loop diagram. Hall and Menzies [14] attempted to relate the scientific process of synthesizing a formal model with the psychological and socio-political processes of decision making in a complex system during a crisis on a sports club. Garcia and Caro [13] proposed a model for understanding a complex management issue that is the customer loyalty in a public sports service. Klabbers [25] noted that System Dynamics is appropriate for use in information feedback simulations for rule-based competitions, including baseball games. This paper uses SD to examine the developmental structure of Taiwanese professional baseball to further understand the system behavior of Taiwanese professional baseball. 3.2 Modeling Taiwanese professional baseball is subject to the impact of nonlinear factors such as parent corporations, fans, teams, sponsorship, players, and interference from mobs, which form a complex and dynamic system. This paper applies system dynamics to examine this system and describe causal relationships between the various factors in the Taiwanese professional baseball system. 3.2.1 The Causal Relationship between Team Image and Team Income A more positive team image facilitates gaining greater support from fans. Ticket income increases, thereby increasing team profits and allowing the team to recruit higher-quality players during drafts. The quality of players on the team in general is enhanced, improving the performance of the team and forming a positive loop. However, when a team performs better,

they are given lower priority in drafts in order to prevent the emergence of a perennially dominant team, thereby forming an adjustment loop. Figure 1 depicts a causal feedback loop diagram for team image and team income. +

Profit

Team income

+

-

+

+

Overall players'quality

Ticket income + The number + of fans

-

Draft conditions

Team + performance

Fans attendance +

Team image

+

Players Other leisure and sports popularity industry development

+

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Players match-fixing frequency

Figure 1: Team image and team income loop 3.2.2 The Causal Relationship between Overall Players’ Quality and Team Income Team performance will be better when the overall quality of players on a team is better. The team will also enjoy a greater number of fans and ticket sales, thereby leading to improvements in the strength and resilience of players in games. Good player performance leads to higher player salaries, leading to higher team personnel costs. At that point, team profits will be reduced. Consequently, teams must consider the burden of personnel costs during drafts. Figure 2 depicts a causal feedback loop diagram for overall players’ quality and team income. +

Team income

Draft conditions

Profit

+ Overall players' quality

-

Team cost + Players salaries

+

The number of competition

+ Players performances +

+

+ Team performance +

Players experiences accumulation

Figure 2: Overall players’ quality and team income loop 3.2.3 The Causal Relationship between Player Popularity and Sponsorship More popular players gain greater attention and favor from fans and companies. Their television ratings improve, giving the team more leverage in television broadcast rights negotiations. When broadcast licensing fees increase, team income increases. Also, when players are more poplar, they gain the favor of companies for product promotions or filming commercials; companies may even give the team sponsorship money. When sponsorship money is more plentiful, team income increases. Consequently, player popularity forms two positive

C. T. Hsiao et al.: Dynamic Simulation for Development of the Professional Baseball Game in Taiwan causal feedback loops with team income and sponsorship, as shown in the diagram in Figure 3.

target spending levels, the finances of a team are sufficient to support team expenditures. The parent corporation can reduce financial support, forming the causal feedback loop of target spending levels and team income shown in Figure 4.

Television broadcast licensing fees + Overall Television ratings Team + players' quality performance + +

+

+

The number of fans +

Team income +

+ Competitions + spending Training costs

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The number of players + Target spending levels

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Team + income + Budget gap + + + Parent corp. + Team cost investment Ticket income + Profit

Draft conditions

+ Players performances +

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-

sponsorship

+ Players popularity Figure 3: Player popularity and sponsorship loop

Figure 4: Target spending levels and team income loop

3.2.4 The Causal Relationship between Target Spending Levels and Team Income Teams can recruit more and better players when team income is more plentiful and can also increase spending on player training and team competitions. We found from expert interviews that, when there is only a small difference between team income and

We integrated the four causal loops described above to present the overall loop diagram for the Taiwanese professional baseball development system, as shown in Figure 5.

The number of players

Target spending levels

+ Budget gap

+ + Competitions Training costs spending + + Team cost + Other leisure and sports industry development Players salaries +

-+

+ Parent corp. investment

+

Ticket income +

-

+ Players popularity

+

+

Television broadcast licensing fees

Profit

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Team income

+ Television ratings

+ The number of fans +

+

The number of competition Players performances +

+

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Overall players' quality

+ Detection rate

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sponsorship + Fan attendance

+ Mobster Players involvement + sport ethics + Draft conditions Players match-fixing + frequency

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Team image + +

+ Team performance

Team operating issues


+

Figure 5: Development structure of Taiwanese professional baseball game 3.3 Quantitative Model Based on the qualitative model and relevant information collected in the previous section, this study established a quantitative model and dynamic equation encompassing team income, team image, and overall players’ quality. Therein, team image and overall players’ quality are more abstract variables and are more difficult to quantify; data for these two variables was obtained through an interview with the marketing supervisor for the Brother Elephants team, the first profitable team in the CPBL. 1. Team income The primary sources of increase in team income are parent corporation investment, ticket sales, television broadcast licensing fees, and

sponsorship, while decreases in income result from team costs. Team income is the difference between income increase and income decrease. In 1990, it was estimated about TWD 31,500,000 for team operation in the first year by CPBL. In terms of Vensim programming language, the dynamic equation of team income can be expressed as: Team income= INTEG (+income increase income decrease, 31500000) Income increase=parent corp. investment + ticket income + television broadcast licensing fees + sponsorship Income decrease = team cost

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2. Team image Based on expert interview data, team image is expressed from 0 to 100 in this study and can be divided into four grades: 0~40 represent a poor image, 41~60 represents an image needing improvement, 61~80 suggests an acceptable image, and 81~100 suggests a good image. Team image is the difference between image increase and image decrease; an “image needing improvement value” of 41 points is set as the default initial value. 3. Overall players’ quality It can be seen from expert interview data that overall players’ quality can be expressed by a numerical value from 0 to 100; 0 represents a player that should be dismissed, while 100 represents a star-level player. Quality grades are: 1~20 are players not appropriate for play, 20~40 are substitutes, 40~60 are occasional starters, 60~80 are permanent starters and 80~99 are star players. The primary sources of players for Taiwanese professional baseball teams are drafts and players that leave other teams, so team quality increase is dependent on draft conditions and whether or not team income is sufficient to sign recruits and free agents; consequently, overall players’ quality increase is the sum of these two factors.

4. RESULT AND SIMULATION The Taiwanese professional baseball system is primarily affected by parent corporations, teams, fans, sponsorship, media, and the environment. This study uses Vensim software to perform trend simulations for the most three important stocks of qualitative model as shown Figure 5 are average annual fan attendance at each game, team income, and team image. 4.1 Result 4.1.1 Average Annual Fan Attendance at Each Game Average fan attendance at each game gradually increased starting from the first year of professional baseball, until fan attendance at games fell sharply following the match-fixing scandal of 1996 (the 7th year of professional baseball); average fan attendance fell from 5488 to 2041. From 1997~2001 the average annual fan attendance at each game was approximately 1914. Fans began returning following Taiwan’s bronze medal at the 34th World Baseball Classic; by 2004 (the 13th year of professional baseball), average fan attendance at games had increased to 2957. However, in 2005 (the 16th year of professional baseball), a match-fixing scandal broke again and led to the loss of fans. Figure 6 shows that the simulated values of fan attendance match up with actual data.

4.1.2 Team Income The number of fans has increased since the beginning of professional baseball in Taiwan, and team income has also increased on an annual basis. We found from expert interviews that it had been expected that teams would achieve balanced budgets by the 7th year of professional baseball and that parent corporations had expected to gradually reduce their investments, but the occurrence of the match-fixing scandal led to reductions in team incomes. Together with the hostile competition between the two leagues, these financial issues forced parent corporations to increase funding for their associated teams, causing significant financial burdens to the parent corporations. Consequently, four teams were dissolved due to severe financial losses. Team incomes only gradually increased following improved sales of professional baseball merchandise and better sponsorship resulting from Taiwan’s performance in the 2001 World Baseball Classic. Mr. Huang, the marketing supervisor for the Brother Elephants team, the first profitable team in the CPBL, has suggested that. This study presents a Taiwanese professional baseball development dynamics model that fits the system development structure of Taiwanese baseball. In addition, when comparing the trend simulation results of fan attendance numbers in Figure 6 and team incomes in Figure 7, the results demonstrate that historical values match up to simulated trend values, demonstrating that the SD theoretical model enjoys high validity. Therefore, this study fits expert validity as well as comparison of simulated values and historical values. Both constitute methods of verifying SD methodology models [1,5,6,10]. 4.1.3 Team Image The match-fixing scandal in 1996 (Year 7 of professional baseball) had a large and negative impact on team image, which fell to 0~40, the “poor image” bracket. Team images gradually recovered with the passage of time and the impact of the World Baseball Classic, but were again damaged by a second match-fixing scandal in 2005. As Figure 8 shows, the simulation results of this paper correspond largely to actualities. Number of Fan Average annual fan attendances(Historical) 16000 Attendances 14000 Average annual fan attendances(Simulated) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Year

Figure 6: Simulation result: Compare with historical data

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50000

Ten thousand dollars

Team income(Historical) Team income(Simulated)

40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Year

Figure 7: Simulation result: Compare with historical data Image score

100

Team image

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shown in the simulation results of Figure 10, match-fixing incidents are reduced following the strengthening of the ethical and legal views of players. Team image is no longer affected, and fans are no longer lost as a result; team income is, as a result, no longer impacted by the occurrence of negative incidents, facilitating team operation. increase NT D30 million increase NT D15 million balance

Overall players' quality score

100 80 60 40 20 0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

80 60

Year

40

Figure 9: Impact of target spending levels change on overall players’ quality

20 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Year

Figure 8: Trend diagram depicting team image 4.2 Simulation This study performs decision dynamic simulation for the impact of target spending levels and match-fixing incidents on team image, facilitating understanding of potential results of decisions. Policy effect analysis and specific suggestions are also raised as a reference for Taiwanese professional baseball team operation strategies. 4.2.1 Impact of Target Spending Levels Change We performed a policy simulation for the impact of increasing the target spending levels of teams on overall players’ quality. In the simulation, the target spending level of a team rose by 15% and 30% over the original $100 million NTD spending target. In other words, an additional $15 million NTD and $30 million NTD were used to increase employment of professional foreign coaches, absorb first-rate Japanese players or major league-level players, and even organize a complete reserve roster, thereby increasing the entertainment value of games. The simulation results depicted in Figure 9 show that increasing target spending levels facilitates the increase of overall players’ quality; greater increases in spending levels lead to more significant increases in players’ quality. 4.2.2 The Impact of Match-Fixing Incidents on Team Image This study simulated the impact of match-fixing incidents on team image, focusing on the policy simulation of training of players in relevant courses intended to strengthen the ethical and legal views of players and thereby prevent mobster interference in professional baseball games. As

Ten thousand dollars

Improvement in ethics Lack of improvement in ethics

210 175 140 105 70 35 0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Year

Figure 10: Simulation diagram: team income

5. DISCUSSION Professional baseball provides leisure entertainment and also serves the function of increasing recognition of parent corporations and sponsor companies. Team incomes are a primary key factor in whether teams can continue operating. Consequently, the sources of income for teams should be reliant on active pursuit of fan support and sponsorship by companies, such as players promoting products, printing advertisements on team jerseys, or installing advertisements on stadium billboards; on the passive side, teams can reduce personnel fees. The professional baseball match-fixing scandals had enormous impacts on the entire baseball industry. In addition, the sports ethics and legal understandings of players should be enhanced, lifestyle contracts and punishments for players should be established, and security personnel in baseball stadiums should be increased so as to prevent mobster interference as well as the occurrence of team cheating and illegal match-fixing; these negative incidents fall into the grey area between legality and ethics, leading to social disorder and setting back the development of the industry.

6. CONCLUSION This paper used system dynamics as a methodology to examine the developmental structure

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of Taiwanese professional baseball. It was shown that the five stocks of the Taiwanese professional baseball system – team image, team income, overall players’ quality, number of fans, and accumulation of player experience – interact and form a complex and dynamic structure. This study found that team incomes are subject to the influence of the support of fans; sponsorship and television broadcasters are also influenced by the number of fans and by team image. Consequently, it is necessary to establish positive management ideas to maintain and improve positive images for teams so that fans will be willing to continue supporting teams, thereby increasing team income. In addition, decision simulation results showed that overall players’ quality was indirectly improved by increases in the target spending levels of parent corporations. Team images improved, fan attendance improved, and ticket sales increased, leading to abundant team income. As can be seen from the decision-making simulation, increases in the target spending levels of team parent corporations facilitate that operation and development of teams. In addition, in terms of the impact of match-fixing incidents on team image, establishing positive team operating ideals and strengthening the ethical and legal views of players will facilitate prevention of mafia interference and incidents of team cheating, thereby allowing fans to be willing to continuously attend games and support teams; increased and sustained attendance increases ticket income and swells team income, benefitting the development of professional baseball sports in Taiwan as a whole. This paper examined the developmental structure of Taiwanese professional baseball from the perspective of system dynamics, a methodology which can be applied to topics related to the development of other professional sports [15]. It is hoped that interested scholars can perform further studies.

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS Chih-Tung Hsiao is an associate professor in Department of Economics at Tunghai University in Taiwan. He received his master degree in Industrial Economics from National Central University and he had a Ph.D. degree in management science from National Chiao Tung University in Taiwan. His primary research interests include education policy, health economics, industrial economics, technology management and systems approaches. He has published in journals such as Journal of the Operational Research Society, Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, BMC Health Service Research, and Journal of the Chinese Statistical Association. Hui-Ling Peng is a Ph.D. candidate in Management College at Da-Yeh University, Taiwan. Her research interests include System Dynamics, systems approaches, educational policy and decision-making management. Hui-Hua Huang is a Ph.D. candidate in the department of Business at the Feng Chia University, Taiwan and also an instructor in the Department of Marketing and Logistics at the China University of Technology, Taiwan. Her research and teaching interests include decision-making management and simulation modeling in TFT LCD industry. (Received July 2009, revised August 2009, accepted November 2009)

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台灣職業棒球發展之動態模擬蕭志同 1、彭惠苓 2*、黃慧華 3 1 東海大學經濟學系台中市西屯區台中港路三段 181 號 2 大葉大學管理學院彰化縣大村鄉學府路 168 號 3 逢甲大學商學所台中市西屯區文華路 100 號 3 中國科技大學行銷與流通管理系新竹縣湖口鄉中山路三段 530 號

摘要棒球在台灣是最重要的球類運動之一，然而職業棒球發展卻是遭受到很大的挫折，因此許多台灣優秀的職業棒球選手大多到美國與日本職業球隊發展。自1968年起棒球成為台灣最熱門運動項目，然而職棒的成立卻遲至1990年才開始。雖然政府與民間組織希望將台灣職業棒球運動，能成為一項運動、休閒與觀光產業，但是發展近二十年來卻發生數次的危機，也僅有一支球團有財務盈餘。事實上職棒的經營受到母企業、贊助商、媒體、球迷、球團、球員、廣告商及其他休閒組織、球員倫理與社會環境等因素的影響，這些因素交互作用形成一個複雜且動態的系統。本研究以系統動態學探討 1990~2008年台灣職業棒球發展的系統結構，增加對其系統行為的了解，並且模擬未來發展趨勢及進行球團發展之相關策略討論。關鍵詞：系統動態學、職業棒球、運動產業（*聯絡人：[email protected]）