Climate change effects on the distribution of a potato tuber moth, Tecia solanivora (Povolny) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Results
Figure 01. Current potential distribution of T. solanivora using the CLIMEX model. Where the red color describes the potential establishment area (EI> 30)
The results showed that T. solanivora is currently in 12 countries (Figure 01). The area of establishment (EI>30), for T. solanivora in current climate conditions (Figure 01), summed 27,902,563.63 km2 and in the scenario (A1B-2050) (Figure 02), it summed 18,105,126.1 km 2 globally. The potential range (EI>30) for T. solanivora, in the (A1B-2050) scenario diminishes in 58.7 % in Africa, 30.4 % in America, 30.8 % in Asia and 42.1 % in Oceania, but increases in 19.9 % in Europe, compared to the current potential distribution (Table 01). On the maps (Figures 3A and 3B); a range of generations per year of T. solanivora is observed between 0 and 13; for current climate conditions and for the year 2050. Where the red color indicates a maximum number of generations per year. In the scenario (A1B-2050) globally for T. solanivora respect to current climate conditions, there will be an average increase of two generations/year in the tropics and a generation/year in the northern and southern world (Figure 3C).
Discussions
Figure 02. Potential distribution of T. solanivora, using the CLIMEX model, for a scenario (A1B-2050). Where the red color describes the potential establishment area (EI> 30).
According to some researchers they say that the introduction of T. solanivora to Peru would be disastrous (Spooner et al. 2005; Shaub et al. 2009; Pollet et al. 2003; Bosa et al. 2005). Likewise, this research found potential areas for its establishment under current climate conditions and for a climate change scenario. Therefore, it is urgent to have effective phytosanitary measures between Peru and Ecuador. Otherwise, it was also determined that by the year 2050 in general we will have an average increase of 2 generations per year for this moth, which possibly means an increase in the degree of infestation for the potato crop because it would be shortening the duration of the biological cycle of T. solanivora. A
Introduction
Material and Methods
Tecia solanivora (Povolny) is considered as the major crop pest for potatoes in Central America and Northern South American countries. The presence of T. solanivora in Peru has not yet been reporter, despite its common border with southern Ecuador. Studies suggest that T. solanivora could become established in various potato cultivation areas of South America and other parts of the world. The introduction of this pest to Peru, the site of origin and where the highest diversity of potato varieties is found, could have disastrous consequences (Spooner et al. 2005; Shaub et al. 2009; Pollet et al. 2003; Bosa et al. 2005). The determination of places with similar climatic conditions to the place of native distribution of T. solanivora can be made from field observations and environmental variables, which act as predictors of its distribution (Benito de Pando and Peñas de Giles, 2007) and help to understand the impact of Climate Change on the distribution of this species, according to its climatic demands in a region (Sutherst et al. 2007). Consequently, the objective is to determine the potential distribution of T. solanivora, under current climate conditions and a climate change scenario (A1B-2050) at the global level.
This research determined the geographic distribution of T. solanivora in relation to literature sources and the potential distribution of this moth under current climate conditions and a climate change scenario (A1B-2050 + 1.72 °C) at the global level using the CLIMEX model. The model used physiological parameters of T. solanivora and global meteorological data, to build an Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which described the potential area of establishment (EI>30) and occurrence (EI 30) of T. solanivora, under current climate conditions and in the (A1B-2050) scenario CONTINENTS
Current climate conditions (EI>30) (Km2)
Scenario A1B (Km2)
Difference (Km2)
% Change
AFRICA
7,297,788.4
3,006,954.3
4,290,834.0
58.7
AMERICA
10,071,281.7
7,007,679.7
3,063,602.0
30.4
ASIA
5,542,988.5
3,834,340.5
1,708,647.9
30.8
EUROPE
2,205,423.2
2,645,104.0
-439,680.7
-19.9
OCEANIA
2,785,081.5
1,611,047.4
1,174,034.1
42.1
Total
27,902,563.63
18,105,126.1
9,797,437.4
-
Figure 03. Number of generations per year of T. solanivora: A. In current climate conditions. B. In a climatic scenario A1B-2050 and C. Difference between the number of generations B - A
Jaris Veneros1 • Magali García2 • Henri Tonnang3 • Darío Barona4 1 Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza - Amazonas. Facultad de Ingeniería Civil y Ambiental. UNTRM - FICIAM. Calle Universitaria N° 304. Chachapoyas - Perú. 2 Instituto de Investigación, Innovación y Desarrollo para el Sector Agrario y Agroindustrial de la Región Amazonas. IIDAA. Calle Universitaria N° 304. Chachapoyas - Perú. 3 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. CIMMYT. Village Market 00621 Nairobi Kenya. 4 Ecuaquímica Ecuatoriana de Productos Químicos C.A. Avenida Ilaló Km.1.5 entre Alondras y Cisnes - Vía El Tingo, Quito - Ecuador. 1 Corresponding autor:
[email protected]
