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Mar 12, 2010 - 12-3-2010. Tools Buildings modeling physics: HAMBase scientific software: MatLab. Anne Frank House. Measured indoor climate (2002) ...
Modeling the effect of climate change in historic buildings at several scale levels Jos van Schijndel Henk Schellen Marco Martens Marcel van Aarle
Contents Intro Problem
What is the Effect of Climate Change on Built Heritage?
Buildings as Dynamic Complex systems
Modeling Tools
What can we simulate?
Incorporating Climate change
Using Tools For the Problem 12-3-2010
PAGE 1
Intro Problem
What is the Effect of Climate Change on Built Heritage?
Buildings as Dynamic Complex systems
Modeling Tools
What can we simulate?
Incorporating Climate change
Using Tools For the Problem 12-3-2010
PAGE 2
Introduction Climate for Culture Project • • • • •
Climate change -> global challenges Historic buildings in different parts of Europe High resolution climate evolution scenarios Coupled with whole building simulation models Mapping most urgent risks for specific regions
• Scale problem: building vs. EU regions
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Introduction Problems & Approach • • • • •
Scale difference building vs. EU regions Large numbers of building states & parameters Uniqueness of each building Classification of buildings Indoor Climate Performance
• Approach: • Buildings as dynamic complex systems
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Intro Problem
What is the Effect of Climate Change on Built Heritage?
Buildings as Dynamic Complex systems
Modeling Tools
What can we simulate?
Incorporating Climate change
Using Tools For the Problem 12-3-2010
PAGE 5
Buildings as Dynamic Complex Systems What is special on complex systems? • The whole is greater than the sum of the individual parts
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Buildings as Dynamic Complex Systems What is special on complex systems? • Butterfly effect: Small parameter variations may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system.
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Importance of BuildCoSy
• Where are the dynamic complex systems at the built environment ? Everywhere and on several scales
~ km
~ 10 m
~1m
~ mm
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Importance of BuildCoSy
Urban Area ~ km
Present dynamic complex systems: Urban Systems & Control * District heating * Earth heating Urban Physics * Climate
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Importance of BuildCoSy
Building ~ 10 m
Present dynamic complex systems: Building Systems & Control * Central Air-conditioning * Ground heat exchangers Building Physics * External boundary conditions
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Importance of BuildCoSy
Indoor climate ~ 1 m
Present dynamic complex systems: Indoor climate Systems * Additional local Systems Indoor climate Physics * Health * Thermal comfort
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Importance of BuildCoSy
Material ~ mm
Present dynamic complex systems: Material Physics * Durability
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Buildings as Dynamic Complex Systems • Butterfly effect: Small parameter variations may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system.
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Intro Problem
What is the Effect of Climate Change on Built Heritage?
Buildings as Dynamic Complex systems
Modeling Tools
What can we simulate?
Incorporating Climate change
Using Tools For the Problem 12-3-2010
PAGE 14
Tools HOW? Modeling based on physics Using state of art scientific software Multi Buildings ‘HAMBase’ MatLab
Reference year Available for our models Hourly based, 8000 locations on earth
(2) EU Climate for Culture project data • • • •
250 years: period 1850 – 2100 Not available yet (Max. Plank Institute Jacob et al.) Hourly based, Any location in Europe
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Visualization of Climate Change on the Indoor Climate
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Classification
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Classification
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Intro Problem
What is the Effect of Climate Change on Built Heritage?
Buildings as Dynamic Complex systems
Modeling Tools
What can we simulate?
Incorporating Climate change
Using Tools For the Problem 12-3-2010
PAGE 30
New: Multi Buildings model
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Very Useful to compare building indoor climates T
Rh
10 Buildings 93 indoor climates Validated with measurements Simulation “AS IS” i.e With Heating & Internal sources
T
Rh
Same 10 Buildings 93 indoor climates Simulation “Free Floating” Without Heating & Internal sources
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Discussion How to proceed? End product: EU map?
Important performances for monumental buildings •Indoor Climate (T & Rh) •Construction “climate” •Energy consumption •CO2 emission •Costs
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Conclusion •
The presented modeling and simulation laboratory is well equipped for simulating heat, air and moisture transport at the scale levels ranging from materials to buildings.
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Conclusion •
A preliminary method for up-scaling building spatial level models onto a continental level by the following steps: (1) Classification of buildings; (2) simulation of the same type of buildings at several locations spread over Europe; (3) simulation of the effect of climate change using artificial local climate data sets; (4) visualization of the results using EU maps.
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Conclusion •
Overall we may conclude that this approach is very promising for simulating the impact of climate change on the indoor climates of historic buildings at several scale levels.
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• Thank you • Questions? • Fore more information visit my homepage: http://sites.google.com/site/josvanschijndelhomepage/