PowerPoint Presentation - No Slide Title - Energy and Sustainability ...

Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center

EML 4450/EML 5451: Energy Conversion Systems for Sustainability Fall 2006 Instructors Prof. A. Krothapalli & Dr. Brent Greska Teaching Assistant: Mr. John Dascomb ([email protected]*)

[email protected]* & [email protected]* Class: TTH 10:15 - 11:30am * Preferred communication method

“f “The purpose of education is to bring out the best in you” Mahatma Gandhi


Course Description This course will present the challenge of changing the global energy system so that it addresses the objective of greatly reducing the dependence on the finite fossil energy sources and move to the environmentally sustainable* energy sources. The emphasis will be on greenhouse gas emissions free energy production strategies, including renewable energy – solar, wind and biomass. Sustainable development: ability of humanity to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generation to meet their own needs

*


Course Objectives • •

• •

•

To provide an understanding of the concept of sustainable future. To provide critical and thorough introduction to the subject of energy, its use and its environmental effects, especially global warming. To provide an understanding of the role of thermodynamic principles in energy conversion. To introduce the major methods of direct energy conversion – thermoelectricity, photovoltaics, thermionics and fuel cells. To provide a survey of renewable energy systems, solar, wind and biomass.


Course Outline • • • • • • • • • • • •

•

Energy systems in sustainable future The science of global warming The solar strategy Solar radiation characteristics Thermodynamic fundamentals for energy conversion systems Essentials of quantum physics Thermoelectric generators Photovoltaic generators Thermionic generators Fuel cells Other modes of direct energy conversion Renewable energy sources Solar energy Wind energy Other energy Socio-economic assessment of energy supply systems


Text Book and References Text Book: Sustainable Energy, Tester, Drake, Driscoll, Golay and Peters, MIT Press, 2005, ISBN 0-26220153-4

References: 1.

Renewable Energy by Brent Sorensen, Third edition, Academic Press, 2004,

2.

Direct Energy Conversion, Stanley W. Angrist, Fourth Edition, Allyn and Bacon, 1982.

3.

Energy and the Environment, James A. Fay & Dan S. Golomb, Oxford, 2002.

4.

Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems, Gilbert M. Masters, Wiley Interscience, 2004.

5.

Fundamentals of Thermodynamics, Sonntag, Borgnakke & Van Wylen, 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc,1998.

6.

Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes, Duffie & Beckmann, 2nd Edition, Wiley Interscience, 1991

7.

Wind Energy Explained, Manwell, McGowan & Rogers, Wiley, 2002

8.

Fuel Cell Systems, Larminie & Dicks, 2nd edition, Wiley. 2003.

9.

The Solar Economy, Hermann Scheer, Earthscan, 2002.


Other Matters

Look at the “Syllabus document” on the website for details on tests, exams and grading at http://www.sesec.fsu.edu Test 1: October 5, 2006 Test 2: November 13, 2006 Final Exam.: As scheduled by the COE


The Future of Energy, Today Oil prices broken record highs Hurricane Katrina disrupts major oil & gas supplies in US Nuclear energy is back Booming growth in China and India has strained the energy supply New energy investments have exceeded the one trillion mark Russia turns off its gas to 60 million people in Ukraine One out of every four people continues to live without access to modern energy

Source: World Energy in 2006, World Energy Council, June 2006


Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Chinese oil demand

Largely driven by the demand from China and India

Hurricane Katrina effect

The demand for natural gas is growing which may result in prices that will be substantially higher than the current price.


The Future of Energy, 2030 Energy demand is set to raise by 60% in the period up to 2030 Global energy investment requirement from now until 2030: $ 17 trillion Annual average: $ 550 billion About 1% of global annual GDP This investment level would increase to create access to electricity to 2 billion people without supply today Each country has a distinctly different energy sector Financing the required investment by the developing nations is a challenge

Source: World Energy in 2006, World Energy Council, June 2006


Map of Six Basic Country Groupings

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004


Other Country Groupings

*

* Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia



World Population


World Population Population rankings of major world regions continue to shift in favor of developing regions


World Population Good News: The pace of global population growth is on decline To stabilize or reduce population: Increase women’s health Education employment Women as equal participants in all aspects of society


World Gross Domestic Product History

Projections

80

Trillion 1997 U.S. Dollars

High Economic Growth Case 60

Reference Case

40 Low Economic Growth Case 20

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year

Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2004


World Gross Domestic Product

Future long term predictions should be treated with caution.

Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2006


Top Ten GDP Countries


Top Ten GDP Countries - 2005 Country USA

GDP in PPP GDP per capita in (US $ trillion) terms of PPP - US $ 12.49 41,800

Annual Growth rate in % 3.5

China

8.859

6,800

9.9

Japan

4.018

31,500

2.7

India

3.611

3,300

7.6

German yUK

2.504

30,400

0.9

1.83

30,300

1.8

France

1.816

29,900

1.4

Italy

1.698

29,200

0.1

Russia

1.589

11,100

6.4

Brazil

1.556

8,400

2.4

Source: CIA Fact Book


Annual GDP Growth


GDP Growth for Selected Countries

More likely scenario

GDP growth will bring urban shift in population India: 28% in 2000 41% in 2035


Growing Consumerism In China & India $12,000 yearly income buys a life style to what an annual income of $40,000 gets in US In India, 150 - 200 million people are with US $13,750 per capita income and 7 million new consumers (20 - 34 year olds) will be added yearly for the next decade - Changing life styles with more women working outside homes, increased attitude to indulge today than save for tomorrow and double income families. Similar situation exists in China with a population size of about 300 million people and it is expected to grow to about 500 million within a decade. Since aspirations of people around the globe being the same, such economic growth will generate an unprecedented demand for energy supply.


Energy Units

1 barrel (bbl) of crude oil = 42 gallons = 6.12 x 109 joules 1 Mtoe = million tones of oil equivalent = 1013 joules 1 quad = 1015 BTU = 1.055 x 1018 joules = 2.93 x 1011 kWh = 172 x106 bbl of oil equivalent = 36 x 106 metric tones of coal equivalent = 0.93 x 1012 cubic feet of natural gas equivalent


World Marketed Energy Consumption History

Projections

800 High Economic Growth Case

1015

Quadrillion Btu

600

Reference Case

400 Low Economic Growth Case 200

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year



World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region History

Projections

300 45% 43%

Quadrillion Btu

250 200

Industrialized

Share of World Total

150 Developing 100 12%

50 EE/FSU 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year



Energy Intensity by Region

Thousand Btu per 1997 U.S. Dollar of GDP

History

Projections

70 60 50 EE/FSU

40 30

Developing

20 10 Industrialized 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year



World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type History

Projections

250

39%

Quadrillion Btu

200

Oil

150

Natural Gas

25% 23%

100 Coal Renewables

50

Nuclear

8% 5%

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year



World Oil Consumption and Production Consumption

2004 Production:

Production

NY Times, 8/15/04

140.0

Million Barrels per Day

120.0 100.0 80.0

Other EE/FSU OPEC

Other Developing Asia 120.8 Industrialized 91.5

120.6

91.1

77.1

77.0

60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 2001

2010

2025

2001


2010

2025


Persian Gulf Oil Productive Capacity

10.2

Saudi Arabia

22.5 3.7

Iran

4.9 2.8

Iraq

6.6

United Arab Emirates

2.7 5.2 2.4

Kuwait

Qatar

0.0

2001 2025

5.0 0.6 0.8

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Million Barrels per Day


25.0

30.0


World Oil Reserves by Country (1/1/04) Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq UAE Kuwait Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Mexico Qatar Algeria Norway Kazakhstan Brazil Azerbaijan Oman Rest of World

World Total: 1,266 Billion Barrels

0

50

100

150

200

250

Billion Barrels

Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49 (December 22, 2003), pp. 46-47.

300


Logistic Equation

Qo :Ultimate production; tm: Year of peak production; a: the decay rate


US Cumulative Oil Production


US Annual Oil Production

Source: Prediction of world peak oil production, Seppo A. Korpela, Ohio State University, 2003


World Oil Production

USA World



World Oil Cumulative Discovery and Production


Annual World Oil Production



World Oil Production - Hubbert’s Method

World oil production through the year 2000 is shown as heavy dots. Hubbert’s method is used to obtain most likely future production. The dashed lines show the probable production rates if the ultimate discoverable oil is 1.8 trillion barrels - the lower curve or 2.1 trillion barrels - the upper curve Source: Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton Univ. Press, 2001.


Estimated Duration of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves

Source: The Solar Economy by Hermann Scheer, Earthscan, 2002.


World Oil Prices History

Projections

2002 U.S. Dollars per Barrel

70 60

Low Oil Price Case Reference Case High Oil Price Case

50 40

“International Energy Agency warned that if oil prices remained at $35 a barrel, or $10 above their 2001 levels, that would slash at least half a percentage point from world G.D.P. the next year” NY times - August 11, 2004 - Global oil demand expected to exceed forecasts, Report says

30 20

$45 a Barrel will reduce the world GDP by 1% from 2001 levels (~ $450 Billion)

10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001 2010 2015 2020 2025



Natural Gas Consumption by Region 2001

2010

2020

2025

200 176

Trillion Cubic Feet

154

150

151

134 114 105

100

90

50

0 IEO2004IEO2003

Industrialized

IEO2004IEO2003

EE/FSU

IEO2004IEO2003

Developing


World Natural Gas Reserves by Region (1/1/04) Middle East EE/FSU Africa Developing Asia North America World Total: 6,076 Trillion Cubic Feet

Central & South America Western Europe Industrialized Asia 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Trillion Cubic Feet

Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production," Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49, December 22, 2003, pp. 46-47

3000


World Coal Consumption by Region 3.5

Billion Short Tons

3

1980 2001 2025

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Industrialized Countries

EE/FSU

China and India

Other Developing Countries


World Recoverable Coal Reserves in 2001 United States FSU China Australia Subbituminous and Lignite Bituminous and Anthracite

India Germany South Africa Yugoslavia

World Total: 1,083 Billion Short Tons

Poland Rest of World 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Billion Short Tons World 2025 Consumption ~ 7 billion short tons/year (Short ton: 2000 lbs = 907.185 kg; ton= 1000 kg) Coal will last at least 150 years


Summary - Fossil Fuel Future Dwindling reserves versus worldwide growth in demand will lead to energy prices beyond consumer’s ability to pay - leads to political tension and violence. Conventional oil and gas reserves will probably be exhausted between 2030 and 2050. Coal is the worst possible fossil fuel (most polluting of the fossil fuels and the one that produces the greatest amount of the greenhouse gas CO2 per unit energy), but the world has at least a 150 year supply of coal. Conclusion: Sustainable future is not possible if we continue to rely on fossil fuel for energy. Therefore, a massive and immediate shift towards renewable sources is inevitable.


Not a New Idea “Within a few generations at most, some other energy than that of combustion of fuel must be relied upon to do a fair share of the work of the civilized world.”

Robert H. Thurston - 1901 in the Smithsonian Institution annual report. Recommended Reading: Plan B 2.0 by Lester R. Brown, W.W. Norton & Company, 2006 http://www.earthpolicy.org