Program - ADC

Welcome It is with great pleasure that I welcome you to the 2013 Australian Leadership Retreat. The theme of Opportunity from Disruption recognises an inescapable reality and the challenge for businesses, governments and other sectors, is to leverage disruption; rethinking inter-relationships and ways of doing things to realise unforeseen opportunities. At a time when discussion about the future often gets boiled down to thirty second sound bites, the Australian Leadership Retreat offers an important opportunity to truly confront the issues crucial for our nation and the world more broadly, through provocative and informed discourse. We look to you, the leaders in your sectors, to join us in the challenging as well as exciting process of understanding the patterns of disruption and grasping their enormous potential. Now in its 17th year, the Australian Leadership Retreat is recognised nationally and internationally and ADC Forum also gratefully acknowledges the invaluable assistance of our Partners. We can take pride in the way in which these events have delivered tangible benefits not only to participants and their organisations, but to society more broadly. During the Retreat we also look forward to sharing with you the ideas and vision being developed to ensure that ADC Forum remains relevant in a changing world, providing new insights and new solutions and bringing together diverse sectors to illuminate and test the ideas critical to shaping our future. May these three days be stimulating, rewarding and enjoyable for you.

Terry Campbell AO Chairman

Australian leadership retreat 2013 – Welcome

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Opportunity from Disruption This year’s Australian Leadership Retreat is designed to confront the disruptive forces in the world head on. While the world continues to search for growth, our theme of Opportunity from Disruption acknowledges the forces of restructuring across a range of time horizons from short term to long term. We are also reminded that disruption is just as likely to emerge from the things we don’t know as the things we do. Our system of prosperity, as much as our social cohesion, relies on the confidence that the forces of cooperation balanced with the forces of competition can achieve higher levels of prosperity for the society. If the system of our focus was a religious one and not a socioeconomic one, we would replace the word ‘confidence’ with ‘faith’. In any case, we ought to remember the inevitable entwining between secular faith and civilisation. Disruption also means that spheres of activity which were once separate now have the potential to collide in new ways. We reflect on the connection between the natural sciences and industry and the scope for a new framework to enable innovation. We remind ourselves that the essence of both conservatism and strategic leadership is engagement with reality while seeking to maintain the integrity of the whole – instead the ossified ideologies we might begin to mistake for pragmatism. Radical elements can be a spur to innovation, growth and progress, and to ignore them is to risk obsolescence. This can mean new ways of looking at situations and problems – balancing bilateral and multilateral engagement in Asia, for example – and being able to identify more powerful solutions while reducing overall risk. As we learn to live with uncertainty and change, we must also understand the dynamics which shape opportunity. Our increasingly advanced technological economies and our desire for continued progress necessitate that we grow beyond being merely opportunistic and grasp the enormous potential to both shape change and capture advantage in a dynamically unstable world. And yet the patterns of chaos and entropy are timeless in nature and it is through what we call civilisation that humanity dares to channel these forces to create patterns of order (whether systemic, institutional or cultural) and the conditions for civilised existence. When we address long-term strategies for the future, we bear in mind that the economy does not operate in isolation from other spheres, that there is deep agency in politics, society and culture as well. Too often things we don’t

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Australian leadership retreat 2013 – opportunity from disruption

understand or disagree with, particularly in our international engagements, are dismissed as merely cultural, but we neuter ourselves to relinquish a properly nuanced understanding of culture abroad. Likewise, we continue to remain blind to the strategic power of effecting culture at home, to bring into alignment the economy, society and our politics, with a prosperous and innovative future we can aspire to. Will we one day argue that sociocultural fragmentation is a direct form of market failure itself? It might be time also to clarify and refine our thinking around broader economic policy and the stimulus vs austerity debates taking place around the world. It is certainly preferable to know how to react before circumstances call for action, and recognise that in this debate, as well as in many others, the best solutions are usually not dichotomous ones. At the same time, crisis is an opportunity to clean out systemic dross and burdensome regulation, even to decouple relationships which are no longer fit for purpose. Certain industries take pride of place for various reasons. Agriculture is one of the oldest industries on the planet, and yet population and land pressures will begin to create a level of demand that furnishes transformational innovation and may eventually lead to urban, agricultural and environmental remapping. From international data collection we know that health and GDP are intimately connected, and our increasingly skewed demography will put difficult choices before us. Our banks as the repositories of accessible credit have also been part of the social infrastructure enabling prosperity for millennia. Technology will enable a more intensive use of resources and infrastructure too will better connect us and grow the footprint of civilisation. Yet as we become mindful of the consequences of our environmental impacts, can we afford not to focus wholeheartedly on delivering energy abundance? Developed countries, through increased competition, face pressure to develop productivity and the mismatch between our economic models and our policy frameworks to account for total factor productivity means this often blows out into working harder not smarter. There are still multiple scenarios for how the new world order of states may eventuate, but as the unresolved Arab Spring demonstrates, new dynamics such as geotechnology, or the combination of people and technology within or beyond states, can be powerful – whether we are referring to the internet, mobile phone connectivity or newfangled smart cities – and perhaps equally powerful for maintaining security, as well as offering subjects for surveillance and control. Of course there are huge benefits for seeing new opportunities from the big data revolution and all manner of new markets being created through and within the Australian leadership retreat 2013 – opportunity from disruption

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proliferation of technology. The business models of the past are no indicators of future success in this regard. Current emerging markets are no guarantee of success either, as companies start to look further afield for growth, whether the focus is Africa, the Middle East, major powers such as India, or Latin America. Capital markets are increasing affected by sleeping giants and shareholder activism, already with a strong track record of returns, is starting to wake up and is set to pose a challenge to company boards, despite sometimes being described using the terminology of the radical fringe. The multiplicity and complexity of the questions confronting us reinforce the importance of ADC Forum as the crucible for new ideas and policies for the future, with the Retreat providing a provocative, yet collegiate environment, which facilitates fearless debate and new thinking, informed by the best minds and leaders from Australia and internationally. Once again, we take time out from busy schedules to focus on the broader strategic context, to cross sectors for new insights and new friends. It is far from the first time this has occurred in proximity to a Federal Election in this country, and with this in mind it is particularly pertinent to remind ourselves that both political and corporate leaders can ill afford to lose sight of the long-term horizon amidst the imminent pressures. Beyond the drive for survival, surely there is too much at stake for elections and quarterly reports to distract from the hard but essential mission of true flourishing? A time of disruption requires open minds to see the possibilities, courage to embrace them, and the highest capabilities to take advantage of them. May you embrace the challenges during this Australian Leadership Retreat and share in creating the opportunities.

Anton Roux Chief Executive Officer ADC Forum

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Australian leadership retreat 2013 – opportunity from disruption

About ADC Forum ADC Forum aims to help leaders make better decisions. It does this through initiatives that challenge conventional wisdom, provoke debate and build greater understanding about the profound, complex and interconnected challenges facing Australia, the region and the world. ADC Forum, a not-for-profit leadership organisation, brings together business, government and industry leaders, investors, NGOs, the public sector along with academics and provocateurs of diverse backgrounds. ADC Forum’s signature annual events are the Australian Leadership Retreat and the ADC Future Summit. The Australian Leadership Retreat is held annually on Hayman Island for business, political, academic and community leaders. It is a forum that promotes the fearless exchange of ideas about our country: Australia’s defining challenges, both at home and as part of a complex, globalized and fractured world. The ADC Future Summit, held annually, provides a collaborative framework for Australia’s established and emerging leaders to share ideas, exchange views to help shape Australia’s future. ADC Forum offers a range of other initiatives ranging from Boardroom briefings and Corporate/ Government consultations including ‘Canberra Connection’, to high-profile summits focussing on critical issues such as infrastructure, climate change, philanthropy, and urban development. ADC Forum was founded in 1996 by Australian members of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and aims to: • Promote the World Economic Forum within Australia and promote Australia’s interest within the broader WEF community; • Promote business excellence by encouraging policy debate on globel issues; Improve the quality of leadership; • Encourage Australia to play a responsible leadership role within the global community; • Offer forums for Australian leaders to listen to international and national experts and leaders.

Australian leadership retreat 2013 – about adc forum

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ADC Forum – Australian Leadership Retreat Patron of ADC Forum The Rt.Hon. Sir Ninian Stephen, KG AK GCMG GCVO KBE PC QC Founder Michael Roux Board Terry Campbell AO, Chairman Greg Martin Russell Miller AM James Roche Professor John Stanley Australian Leadership Retreat Co-Chairs Glenn Barnes Stuart Grimshaw Greg Martin Jack Percy Management and Staff Anton Roux, Chief Executive Officer Matt Faubel, Chief Operating Officer Graeme Willis, Consultant Kate Roffey, Director of Operations Urs Meier, Program Manager Grace De Leon, Accounts Karola Thomson, Events Officer Noelle McKeough, Events Officer Jennifer Jin, Events Assistant ADC Advisors Dr Peter Brain Charles Hunting Sasha Maiyah Christopher Selth ALR Volunteers Madihah Hafiz Daniel Kinsey Miao Ling Rohan Maclaren

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Australian leadership retreat 2013 – ADC Forum leadership

PROGRAM

AUSTRALIAN LEADERSHIP RETREAT 2013 Opportunity from Disruption Friday 23 August 3.00 PM

Information Desk open

3.30 PM - 4.45 PM

Afternoon tea

1 4:45 PM - 4:50 PM Entertainment Centre

Welcome and Introduction Terry Campbell AO Chairman, ADC Forum Moderated by: Anton Roux Chief Executive Officer, ADC Forum


MG Kailis Oration This is the new world order: the trends shaping the globalised world The future seems up for grabs, or is it? A number of trends and scenarios have been put forward over recent years; from the decline of the West, to a bipolar world led by the US and China, to a pre-eminent China; an evolution of the status quo, more devolved regional blocs, the flattening of global power from basic multipolarity to contemporary utopian visions such as the resource based economy of the Venus Project; or even scenarios legitimising global stakeholder democracy (or ‘monitory democracy’) with groups representing media, corporate, or NGO interests being offered voting power. They can’t all be true. Here we explore some of the global dynamics for the global political economy that are both longstanding and emerging, and how in turn these might begin to demarcate the new global order. • What changes occurring in the global economic and political order really matter and how should we contemplate the potential scenarios of world order? • What pressures do leaders now have to contend with, and how will these affect business and society? Addressed by: Claude Smadja President, Smadja & Associates Moderated by: Anton Roux Chief Executive Officer, ADC Forum


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Current realities and future perspectives How do we view current issues and future prospects in a world where change and disruption are inescapable? With an election looming in Australia and storm clouds prevailing on the international horizon, what are our perceptions of the exigent environment and the future?

AUSTRALIAN LEADERSHIP RETREAT 2013 – Program

Friday 23 August This session is designed as a welcoming brainstorming. Respond to Claude Smadja’s thoughts and table your own about pressing issues in Australia and the world. Help set the scene for the Retreat by participating in a lively discussion and you can also use your tablet and smartphone to contribute views. Panellists Max Burger Executive Chairman, Golien Limited Professor Mahmood Sariolghalam Professor, National University of Iran Professor Luigi Zingales Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and the David G. Booth Faculty Fellow, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Moderated by Nik Gowing International Broadcaster, BBC World News


A new understanding of the natural forces as a global opportunity A ground swell is sweeping across the physics community at this time in history and gaining momentum. Some of the most fundamental questions about our natural world are being addressed. What is the nature of mass, gravitation, and magnetism? Where does information go when it crosses the event horizon of a black hole? What is the true nature of energy in the universe? Is it conserved? Was the big bang a single event or is it the result of continuous information flow from parallel or larger universes? As we begin to answer these questions, a new picture of the physics of our world develops. A picture in which information and processes are no longer isolated events, but are interwoven in a complex network of a connected universe. The holographic principle has now been able to resolve the information paradox and describe the entropy, or temperature of a black hole. Now a generalisation of the same principle is able to demonstrate the source of mass, gravitation and the strong force to be the result of a fundamental field of fluctuation in the structure of spacetime itself. At the quantum level, it describes an extremely energetic vacuum, connecting everything from the tiniest subatomic particle to the surface of our universe itself. The result of this new understanding will undoubtedly usher technological developments that can only be dreamed of today. These will indisputably change the landscape of business, industry and the global economy of our world.


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Friday 23 August Addressed by: Nassim Haramein Director of Research, The Resonance Project Moderated by: Professor Ian Chubb AC Chief Scientist, The Australian Government

7:00 PM - 9:00 PM

Dinner – Hayman Pool

5.1 9:05 PM - 10:00 PM Entertainment Centre – lower

Nightcap: A conversation with Luigi Zingales Join Luigi Zingales in a discussion about modern ideologies and capitalism, what it is supposed to be, what went wrong, and how to recover once again the spirit of the market. Addressed by: Professor Luigi Zingales Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and the David G. Booth Faculty Fellow, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Moderated by: Professor John Quiggin Federation Fellow, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

5.2 9:05 PM - 10:00 PM Fontaine Private Dining Room

Nightcap: A conversation with Chris Barrie Join Admiral Chris Barrie AC RAN Retd in a discussion about the shadow side of service; how duty, honour and trauma sometimes go together; from the armed forces, to the fire brigade, to community work, and the role of both professional and cultural solutions that reflect and in turn improve the broader values of a society. Addressed by: Admiral Chris Barrie AC RAN Retd Visiting Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University Moderated by: Dr Janet Stanley Chief Research Officer, Monash Sustainability Institute

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Friday 23 August 5.3 9:05 PM - 10:00 PM Planters

Nightcap: A conversation with Claude Smadja Join Claude Smadja for a global discussion on our kaleidoscopic world and the dynamics and trends operating within it. Addressed by: Claude Smadja President, Smadja & Associates Moderated by: Elizabeth Knight Business Columnist, Sydney Morning Herald and The Age

5.4 9:05 PM - 10:00 PM Entertainment Centre – upper

Nightcap: A conversation with Nassim Haramein Join Nassim Haramein to journey further down the rabbit hole of our reality and explore a new vision of the physical sciences. Addressed by: Nassim Haramein Director of Research, The Resonance Project Moderated by: Dr Alex Zelinsky Chief Defence Scientist, Department of Defence

5.5 9:05 PM - 10:00 PM Boardroom

Nightcap: A conversation with Hiroshi Tasaka Join Hiroshi Tasaka in conversation on new developments in Japan and insights into transformative innovation and social entrepreneurship. Addressed by: Dr Hiroshi Tasaka Professor, Tama University Moderated by: Romilly Madew Chief Executive, Green Building Council Australia


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Saturday 24 August 6 7:15 AM - 8:25 AM La Trattoria

Investor Circle - Private Investor Breakfast (by invitation) Funding Innovation Strong venture capital markets and entrepreneurial cultures often go together, but if technological innovation is an imperative for economic growth and development in advanced economies, consideration will need to go to both how innovation can be funded in the absence of existing strong venture capital markets, as well as what can be done to stimulate a policy or cultural environment more conducive to those factors. Comparisons have been made between Israel and Australia in terms of having an educated population with creative aspirations, although from a comparative point of view, the high cost of housing in Australia and high wages make the opportunity cost for a young person wandering into a new venture very much higher here than in Israel. Further, much of the risk capital over recent years has gone towards the mining and resources sector for exploration, so it remains to be seen whether, coming off the commodity super cycle, funds will be reallocated. • What is the right mix of approaches to funding innovation, and how do we grow a stronger venture market in Australia? • What role do the macroeconomic factors play in terms of Australia’s capacity to successfully fund innovation, and are solutions available? Host: Christopher Selth Advisor, ADC Forum Contributors include: Ross Barker Managing Director, Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited Max Burger Executive Chairman, Golien Tony Burgess Chief Executive Officer, Flagstaff Partners Professor Ian Chubb AC Chief Scientist, The Australian Government Greg Martin Chairman, Prostar Capital Paul Schulte Chief Executive Officer, SGI Research Dr Hiroshi Tasaka Professor, Tama University

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Saturday 24 August 7 8:30 AM - 8:55 AM Entertainment Centre – lower

Global megatrends that are changing the way we live Our world is changing rapidly. Australian companies, communities and governments are faced with increasingly diverse and complex opportunities and challenges. A CSIRO foresight study has identified six megatrends reshaping the competitive landscape over the coming twenty years. These cover issues such as the changing world economy, our ageing population, the rise of the digital world, resource scarcity and the continued growth of the experience economy. Megatrends occur at the intersection of multiple trends. They are important trajectories of change. They emerge gradually at first but express themselves with explosive force into the future with major ramifications for society and industry. • What are the most significant trends shaping our world and what does it mean for both society and business? • How can we both capture the opportunities and manage the risks? Addressed by Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Theme Leader, CSIRO Futures Craig Roy Deputy Chief Executive, CSIRO Moderated by Glenn Barnes Chairman, Australian Unity Limited

8 9:00 AM - 9:40 AM Entertainment Centre – lower

Political perspectives with Andrew Robb With a background in agriculture and extensive business experience in technology, resources and engineering, The Hon Andrew Robb AO MP is Shadow Minister for Finance, Deregulation and Debt Reduction. Robb led the development of the Coalition’s policy to develop Northern Australia as a food bowl and a thriving centre of excellence and, as Chairman of the Coalition Policy Development Committee, he is playing a key role in the lead-up to the election. He espouses the need for governments to live within their means and advocates developing a culture of personal responsibility as cornerstones in developing national strengths. As Australia is about to go to the polls, engage with Andrew Robb as he outlines the Coalition’s vision for Australia. Addressed by The Hon Andrew Robb AO MP Shadow Minister for Finance, Deregulation and Debt Reduction, Parliament of Australia Introduced by James Roche Executive Director, Roche Holdings Pty Ltd Moderated by Susan Li Anchor, Bloomberg Television AUSTRALIAN LEADERSHIP RETREAT 2013 – Program

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Saturday 24 August 9.1 9:40 AM - 10:55 AM Entertainment Centre – lower

The global economy Both the fiscal cliff in the US and the euro bust up in Europe have been avoided, with uncertainty lowered. China’s growth is trending below expectations. The IMF still expects the global economy to grow modestly at 3.5% in 2013, and although acute risks have decreased, the travails of the global economy continue to depress confidence both around the world and in Australia. Borrowing is at exceptionally low levels. The stimulus/austerity war took a turn after the idea that economic growth drops precipitously after a government’s debt reaches 90 percent was discredited, but it was always more complicated than that. What this post-crisis environment is showing is an increased expectation that for confidence to increase, it is not enough to have reliance on the strength of the supply side. False demand is a straw man and beyond the neoclassical model of economics, there is increasing recognition that the demand equation must be strategic in nature and based in the reality of market forces broadly defined. The biggest question around the world is where future growth and jobs will come from - a global lost decade still being possible if the work is not done to develop and facilitate strategic demand. • What are the risks to the global economy over the short term and how contagious are those risks? • How do we respond to the loss of momentum as growth slows down in the emerging market economies? • Growth in the US is looking brighter but will there be a jobs recovery or are we starting to see signs of major technological disruption? • What action is required to support the global economy and are the proposed approaches compatible with long-term prosperity? Panellists Patrick Chovanec Managing Director, Chief Strategist, Silvercrest Asset Management Group Stuart Grimshaw Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Bank of Queensland Limited Professor Luigi Zingales Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and the David G. Booth Faculty Fellow, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Moderated by Susan Li Anchor, Bloomberg Television

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Saturday 24 August 9.2 9:40 AM - 10:55 AM Entertainment Centre – upper

National innovation - strategies for science and technology Australia remains one of the few advanced economies without a nationally integrated science and technology strategy. A national innovation strategy can facilitate the innovation imperative faced by developed countries as emerging nations become competitive across traditional trade and industries. The strategy must be cognisant of knowledge as infrastructure and connect government policy with R&D institutions, industry, and the investment community, supported by a solid intellectual property framework enabling collaboration and trade with other nations.

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What is the case for a national innovation strategy and what should be the core tenets of such a strategy?

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How should R&D collaborations and security be managed in a world where innovation processes are shared to avoid theft and dilution of knowledge assets?

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What should be the role of industry and how should the sectors work together?

Addressed by Professor Ian Chubb AC Chief Scientist, The Australian Government Dr Francis Gurry Director General, World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Discussion Leader Dr Alex Zelinsky Chief Defence Scientist, Department of Defence 10:55 AM - 11:20 AM

Morning Tea – Lions Court

10.1 11:20 AM - 12:35 PM Entertainment Centre – lower

Innovation, faith and consequence in disruption Part 1: Race with the machines Andrew McAfee Technological disruption is nothing new for capitalism, and it happens constantly at the micro level. When it happens at the macro level it comes at once expected and in ever new variations. The loss of jobs that result may be greater or lesser in number, and indeed the effect on individuals is equally devastating. Provided there is the confidence of business and economic leaders to navigate future growth in accordance with the most effective economic strategies of the times, there can be broader confidence that under our system of capitalism, it should not be the total number of jobs lost that is the prevailing concern but the net number of jobs created. Today, we witness unprecedented technological development – it is always unprecedented, save


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Saturday 24 August for talk of lost civilisations – and a degree of mechanisation and automation that puts greater pressure on job creation than ever before; Facebook, a $50 billion company employs around 1500 people, and the renewal of manufacturing in the US has accrued more benefits to robots than potential employees. To be fair, jobs growth tends to regularly lag GDP growth during economic recoveries, but it is reasonable to ask the question at this point with the amplitude of the employment dislocation so large: how will the global economy marry the capacity for technological innovation with the expectations for employment and living standards in advanced industrialised (or de-industrialised) economies? Part 2: To what extent are we prepared to have economic faith guide political imperative? Panel discussion The panel, along with the participants, will engage in a broader discussion around technological innovation and its disruptive effects. How effective are our economic sciences and ideologies as we approach the brave new world of increasing automation. • To what extent can we continue to rely on the presumption of growth and the assumed power of macroeconomic levers? • How do we acheive a more fluid interchange of capabilities between advanced and emerging economies along with more unpredictable long-term competition? Addressed by Andrew P. McAfee Associate Director, Center for Digital Business, MIT Sloan School of Management Commentators Dr Peter Brain Executive Director, National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Professor John Quiggin Federation Fellow, School of Economics, The University of Queensland Tim Toohey Head of Economics, Commodities and Strategy, Goldman Sachs Moderated by David Mann Management Consulting Lead, Accenture

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Saturday 24 August 10.2 11:20 AM - 12:35 PM Entertainment Centre – upper

Understanding India India is the third largest economy today in Purchasing Power Parity terms, having overtaken Japan and only behind the United States and China, with the most youthful population in the world (over 500 million people under the age of 25) and a middle class of over 200 million. While Emerging India is one of the BRIC countries, its economy has slowed down over the past two years as political paralysis has stalled economic reforms. India also ranks very low in terms of the ease of doing business. India faces major issues, including environmental degradation, internal tensions and access to energy, water and delivery of infrastructure, but the nation has a much lauded entrepreneurial spirit delivering international competitiveness in a range of sectors. India’s current situation needs to be seen against the significant achievements over past decades and it is a country which has shown its ability to respond to crises. These qualities will be tested as India faces its current problems but they could also be seen as auguring well for the future.

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Can India develop into a robust, resilient economy and polity capable of addressing the massive issues faced by a nation of 1.2 billion people?

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Does the government have the levers to deal with current challenges or is it true that India only ‘grows at night, while the government sleeps’?

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How should companies think about their engagement to be able to successfully do business in India?

Addressed by Siddharth Varadarajan Editor, The Hindu Dr Arvind Virmani President, Chintan Discussion Leader Professor Amitabh Mattoo Director, Australia India Institute 11.1 12:35 PM - 1:55 PM La Trattoria

Infrastructure and public investment The ‘infrastructure gap’ has been at the forefront of much discussion about economic growth and productivity in Australia, whether it relates to infrastructure to support resources and agricultural development, or infrastructure to support the growth and efficiency of our cities. In the current climate, governments have limited capacity to increase capital expenditure and face restrictions on their ability to raise debt. While private funding for infrastructure, through privatisation of utilities and PPPs for major projects, has become increasingly important in Australia over recent decades, the outcomes have not been without criticism, particularly with respect to the allocation of risks and returns between the private and public sectors.


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Saturday 24 August Issues requiring a clear focus and fresh thinking include project evaluation and comparative benefits assessments for proposed projects, improving transparency, asset maintenance vs new projects, long term planning processes and then integration of land use management and infrastructure planning. This session will explore what lessons can be learned from the past and will discuss critical issues for future projects. Contributing Experts Trevor James Chief Executive Officer, Synergy David Singleton Chairman, Infrastructure Sustainability Council of Australia Pauline Vamos Chief Executive Officer, The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited John Weber Chief Executive Partner, Minter Ellison Lawyers Discussion Leader Christopher Selth Advisor, ADC Forum 11.2 12:35 PM - 1:55 PM Pool Lanai

Education for competitiveness There is increasing recognition that not all infrastructure comes in ‘hard’ or tangible form. ‘Soft’ or intangible infrastructure is just as critical. For example, the physical buildings of a public educational institution would be considered hard infrastructure, but expectations about improving education usually relate to levels of education, or knowledge as infrastructure embodied in people, software, models and publications, which is soft infrastructure. Arguably knowledge is a freely available non-rivalrous economic good, but reality does not necessarily conform to this ideal scenario for there are proprietary considerations, trade secrets and search and transaction costs involved - despite the best efforts of the patent system. There are also new tools for our educational institutions which break down many barriers, but simultaneously pose as threats to our current models of education through massive open online courses (MOOCs) that can replicate the content if not immersive experience traditionally associated with education.

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How can Australia continue to maintain its world renowned education system in a globalised education market becoming suffused with MOOCs?

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What is the best way to develop Australia’s levels of education or knowledge infrastructure across the universities, government and industry?


Saturday 24 August Contributing Experts Professor Warren Bebbington Vice-Chancellor & President, The University of Adelaide Professor Ian Chubb AC Chief Scientist, The Australian Government Terry Moran AC Senior Adviser, Boston Consulting Group Dr Bror Saxberg Chief Learning Officer, Kaplan, Inc Discussion Leader Professor Phillip Long Director, Centre of Educational Innovation & Technology, The University of Queensland 11.3 12:35 PM - 1:55 PM Lagoon Lanai

Managing technological disruption Companies can be the source of technological disruption and do aspire to this level of innovation, but the majority of CEOs will be looking at technological disruption impact on their competitive landscape, from companies within the same industry, and increasingly from technologies and sources of disruption outside their industry which may affect their competitors equally. The test of corporate resilience will be how well one manages incoming disruptive effects, and how to profit from them before the competition does.

• What are the key disruptive changes on the horizon and how are they likely to affect various industries?

• What strategies will be most effective in capitalising on disruptive change?

Contributing Experts Charles Hunting Chief Executive Officer, Twentypercent Michael Lawrey Executive Director of Defence Engagement, Telstra Corporation Limited Andrew P. McAfee Associate Director, Center for Digital Business, MIT Sloan School of Management Alex Pollak Discussion Leader Jack Percy Managing Director, Australia, Accenture


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Saturday 24 August 11.4 12:35 PM - 1:55 PM Fontaine

Insights into the Middle East The Middle East continues to undergo significant upheaval following the liberating forces of the Arab Spring. The region is also brimming with economic activity beyond the energy sector, with a strong appetite for innovation, strong public investment and projects of incredible ambition. This session provides deep reflections on the underlying social and political dynamics within the region and what changes can be expected over the coming years, as well as how best to navigate political risk and cultural differences to engage commercially and do business within the region. Professor Mahmood Sariolghalam Professor, National University of Iran Claude Smadja President, Smadja & Associates Discussion Leader Vijay Poonoosamy Vice-President International Affairs, Etihad Airways

11.5 12:35 PM - 1:55 PM Planters

Australian economy - getting productivity right The end of the commodity super cycle brings the productivity debate to the top of the agenda in Australia with renewed urgency. Australia certainly has plenty of resources, whether mineral, agricultural, institutional or human, but how well do we use them? Our competitiveness agenda has been largely focussed on increasing efficiency, but new economic research is showing that diversity may be just as important for performance as efficiency, in terms of ultimate effectiveness, growth and resilience. Recognising diversity means recognising the benefits that diversity brings across our trade profile, the inputs as well as the goods and services produced in the economy, and within organisations by the men and women who drive economic activity, across boards, management, and within key development teams to drive innovation. The gender component is one aspect of our demographic reality contributing to performance and we can also recognise the benefits of intergenerational collaboration, cross-cultural collaboration, and more broadly the value of dissent and difference. The Australian services sector has been feeling the pinch on productivity for some time, longer than the macroeconomic data would suggest. Culturally, Australians are very hard working but there are limits to which a population hoping to work its way up the value chain can really profit from increasing the labour supply by working harder, rather than by genuinely increasing labour productivity – they are not the same. Australia needs to reclaim its mantle of being the clever country; part of this will involve becoming a more inclusive country, making our own luck and thinking once again of economic reform, strategic infrastructure, and the roles of education and innovation.

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Saturday 24 August

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To what extent should Australia begin trying to measure productivity on a total factor productivity basis (including factors of production such as land and energy) rather than the usual multi-factor productivity basis from combining labour and capital inputs?

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What is the potential for technological innovation to lead to the decoupling of economic growth from population growth?

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What is the optimal way to capitalise on diversity in order to maximise productivity growth and economic resilience?

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What should Australia’s overall productivity strategy look like?

Panellists Chris Bradley Principal, McKinsey and Company Dr Peter Brain Executive Director, National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Graham Kraehe AO Chairman, Bluescope Steel Limited Discussion Leader Saul Eslake Chief Economist Australia & New Zealand, Bank of America Merrill Lynch


Energy - the lifeblood of civilisation The dynamics of the rise and fall of civilisations cannot be attributed solely to the access to energy and resources, but securing adequate supply has often been central to the grand strategies of nations, and technological revolutions involving energy production and distribution have allowed civilisations to achieve step changes in their levels of sophistication, wealth and influence. Part 1: Putting productivity in perspective Robert Ayres For the first part of this session, Professor Ayres takes a groundbreaking look at the role of energy in productivity growth in recent decades as well as its role in the recent financial crisis. He suggests that our policy focus on productivity would produce greater results if some of that attention went beyond the focus on institutional and structural factors to accord greater value to technological innovation, in particular energy efficiency.


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Saturday 24 August Part 2: Energy markets supply and security Nick Butler The global energy market is undergoing enormous structural changes with new forms of resource exploitation and access. Predictable energy supply and security is critical to macroeconomic stability and the functioning of domestic markets. Energy supply and security remains centred around the capacity to access and exploit natural resources, with alternative forms of energy playing a peripheral role. Having a comprehensive national energy policy becomes a critical buffer in mediating between the volatility of global markets and domestic needs. This second part looks primarily at the changes and risks in the global energy markets as well as what sort of options nations should consider, as traditional energy policy meets the complex and unpredictable demands of geopolitical actors, in a world increasingly focused on climate change. Certainly, energy markets continue to manifest the entwining of both commercial and political risks. Part 3: Is sustainabilty an illusion? Steven Greer One of the arguments about alternative energies runs along the lines that they should not be introduced until they become of commercial value. The timing of this argument usually varies depending on whether the subsidies granted to traditional energy industries are included or not, and perhaps whether the efficiency gains of older technologies are more valuable than the introduction of new ones. Most forward estimates increase the mix of renewables in the energy equation, although they usually appear more as complements than substitutes – a sort of complementary medicine for society. The arguments against renewables as a baseload energy source increasingly don’t stack up and yet political will for more widespread utilisation remains feeble. This third part takes a broad survey of what is possible, drawing on research which crosses the boundaries between what we know, what we think we know, and a wider picture of what is from a variety of information sources no one person would usually have access to. So the question remains, what if current alternative energy sources really aren’t all they’re cracked up to be? What if the energy revolution is yet to come? What might this revolution look like, how far away might it be, and can we afford to wait? Addressed by Professor Robert Ayres Novartis Chair of Management, INSEAD Nick Butler Professor, Kings College London Dr Steven M. Greer Founder, The Disclosure Project Moderated by Charles Emmerson Senior Fellow, Chatham House 22


Saturday 24 August 4:00 PM - 4:25 PM

Afternoon tea – Lions Court

13 4:25 PM - 5:40 PM Entertainment Centre – upper

Big data, privacy and internet futures The volume of data in our world has been exploding, and leaders in business, government and society more broadly will need to grapple with the implications of the analysis now possible of large data sets. Big data has been identified as a major potential contributor to GDP, offering enormous growth opportunities to business by enabling analysis of consumer behaviour and other patterns in unprecedented levels of depth. It has also been identified as a game changer in science, opening new opportunities and insights in biology and other areas. While these prospects are exciting, there are challenges in ensuring that the inputs and analytical techniques are accurate and, most importantly, that big data is used to inform more efficient and better decisions. It is also necessary to grapple with issues of ownership of data, privacy, control and security relating to large data sets, often based in cloud infrastructure, which have made traditional approaches, geared to static data sets, largely obsolete. Access to the power of big data has the potential to radically change the power relationships between government, business and individuals, with current laws being inadequate to confront such issues, especially in an environment where national boundaries have little meaning.

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How can big data create value for both business and government?

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How can the dangers of big data be managed so data empiricism does not replace rationality and common sense?

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How can non-oppressive oversight and regulatory regimes be implemented?

Introductory Remarks Philip Evans Senior Partner and Managing Director, Boston Consulting Group Panellists Rick Falkvinge Founder, The Pirate Party Dr Paul Twomey Managing Director, Argo Pacific Pty Ltd Discussion Leader Andrew P. McAfee Associate Director, Center for Digital Business, MIT Sloan School of Management


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Saturday 24 August 14 4:25 PM - 6:45 PM Planters

Australia ahead - long term strategies across sectors Grand strategy is what civilisations and nations require to be capable of renewal and flourishing. Over recent decades, with relative peace amongst the developed world, there has been increasing self-satisfaction with the ad hoc strategies and blind ideologies now passing for pragmatism to keep things going. During the 20th Century, grand strategy itself became relegated to the geopolitical and military realm, but in its full sense it applies to the national interests of nations - remaining as the principal strategic units in the contemporary globalised world - across time, whether in peace or war. It covers all the potential strategic levers available, including the markets, political, social and educational institutions, the population, the culture, the military, technological capabilities, even the environment, and this list should not be considered exhaustive. Even where certain dimensions of the state are sacrosanct at any given time, strategic leadership must consider the potential marshalling of resources and methods. This workshop introduces the multidimensional grand strategy required in the contemporary world, explores the potential of some of those dimensions (geopolitical, economic, corporate, cultural, educational, societal, technological and environmental) and by challenging participants to think multi-dimensionally, will aim to integrate a cross-sectoral model of grand strategy for Australia. After an introductory session, the workshop will break up into three groups to consider key themes and report back to develop and integrate a strategic picture for the future. Introductory Remarks Admiral Chris Barrie AC RAN Retd Visiting Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University Discussion Leaders Economics - Trevor Gruzin Global Senior Managing Director, Growth & Strategy - Management Consulting, Accenture Geopolitics - Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Chief Executive Officer, Future Directions International Pty Ltd Society - Romilly Madew Chief Executive, Green Building Council Australia Facilitated by Nik Gowing International Broadcaster, BBC World News

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Saturday 24 August 15 5:40 PM - 6:45 PM Entertainment Centre – lower

China At a time when Australia’s engagement with China is maturing and can be seen as being at a historic juncture, there are also clouds over the China story. Economic growth, driven by Chinese exports and commensurate resource demand, has faltered, although actual growth rates are still impressive by world standards. While China has compensated by investing in domestic infrastructure, China is facing a very serious and potentially disruptive economic adjustment. The new Chinese leadership needs to confront multiple challenges, not only on the economic front, but also in maintaining social stability in the face of increasing concerns about corruption, food safety and environmental problems. At the same time, the China market is still perceived as the most coveted commercial prize in the world. To capture part of this prize, Australia is no longer able to rely simply on growing resource demands; it must differentiate and diversify itself in a complex and competitive marketplace as the rest of the world, as well as China, are actively trying to climb the value chain. Recognising that China cannot be understood through the prism of our traditional paradigms, this session will illuminate both the challenges and opportunities presented by China.

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What are the likely speed bumps along the China road?

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Can Australia broaden the ambit of its economic relationship with China?

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How can we enhance the relationship with China beyond trade?

How do China’s challenges force us to think in different ways?

Addressed by Patrick Chovanec Managing Director, Chief Strategist, Silvercrest Asset Management Group Dr Martin Jacques Senior Visiting Research Fellow, IDEAS, London School of Economics Commentators Charles Hunting Chief Executive Officer, Twentypercent Andrew Low Chief Executive Officer, RedBridge Grant Samuel Paul Schulte Chief Executive Officer, SGI Research Moderated by Susan Li Anchor, Bloomberg Television


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Saturday 24 August 6:45 PM - 7:15 PM

Pre-dinner drinks – Fontaine Foyer

16 7:15 PM - 9:35 PM Fontaine

Dinner and keynote: Young people, pirates and government In the 1960s the babyboomers were supposedly all about peace and love, while the current generation of under 30s is all about openness and free speech. Culturally, they are the mainstreaming of geek culture at the intersection of human rights discourse. For this generation, the rest of the population doesn’t understand technology because they haven’t grown up with it in the same way. The Pirate Party was set up in Sweden less than 10 years ago and has rapidly spread around the world. Rick Falkvinge, its founder, was a tech entrepreneur who launched the party to fight online censorship, an issue which blew out all over the media in 2013 with the outcry against internet surveillance, along with the champions of digital transparency such as Julian Assange. The party has become Europe’s fastest growing political group, the largest party in Sweden for voters under 30, and has taken 2 seats in the European Parliament. They are in tune with the free market forces such as the bitcoin phenomenon and the e-currencies that threaten the global banking system, as well as questioning practices such as illegal file-sharing and the entire premise of intellectual property, which they posit to be a justification for monopolies that distort the markets for inventions and creative works. They are an example of the redundancy of the left-right political axis in contemporary politics and a case study for the libertarian end of the liberty-authority political axis. Their radical ways of organising might also have something to teach us. Addressed by Rick Falkvinge Founder, The Pirate Party Moderated by Anton Roux Chief Executive Officer, ADC Forum

17.1 9:45 PM - 10:45 PM Planters

Nightcap: A conversation with Andrew McAfee Join in a conversation with Andrew McAfee to explore new frontiers for business in the digital age. Addressed by Andrew P. McAfee Associate Director, Center for Digital Business, MIT Sloan School of Management Moderated by Pauline Vamos Chief Executive Officer, The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited

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17.2 9:45 PM - 10:45 PM Entertainment Centre – lower

Nightcap: A conversation with Ian McLeod Join a conversation with Ian McLeod on the emerging challenges in retailing and distribution. Addressed by Ian McLeod Managing Director, Coles Group Limited Moderated by John Weber Chief Executive Partner, Minter Ellison Lawyers

17.3 9:45 PM - 10:45 PM Boardroom

Nightcap: A conversation with Rick Falkvinge Join Rick Falkvinge to probe more deeply into why the pirate phenomenon has found such resonance. Addressed by Rick Falkvinge Founder, The Pirate Party Moderated by Sasha Maiyah Advisor, ADC Forum

17.4 9:45 PM - 10:45 PM Entertainment Centre – upper

Nightcap: A conversation with Steven Greer Join Dr Steven Greer for further discussion from the classified annals of modern history and the mysteries and confabulations comprising some of the public debates around technology and the barriers to innovation. Addressed by Dr Steven M. Greer Founder, The Disclosure Project Moderated by Craig Roy Deputy Chief Executive, CSIRO

17.5 9:45 PM - 10:45 PM Fontaine Private Dining Room

Nightcap: A conversation with David Ritter Join a discussion with David Ritter on the current concerns and future focus of the environmental movement. Addressed by David Ritter Chief Executive Officer, Greenpeace, Australia and Pacific Moderated by Dr Janet Stanley Chief Research Officer, Monash Sustainability Institute


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Sunday 25 August 18 7:30 AM - 8:25 AM La Trattoria

Investor circle - Investor breakfast (by invitation) Part 1: Emerging markets Political risk remains a significant factor for engagement in a number of emerging markets. Decisions to invest are made on a multitude of factors, but having an acceptable risk to reward ratio has generally been one of them. With the slowdown in the global economy, it is worth looking at the current state of the emerging markets and considering whether they are as profitable and attractive as they once were in light of the attendant risks. Part 2: Funds, governance and activism Activist funds in the US have been posting returns well above market averages as well as outdoing hedge funds. The investment trend has yet to really hit Australia, although the regulatory territory has been opened up in recent years for that to occur. How are activist funds likely to change the governance of corporate boards in Australia? Host Daniel Lin Executive Director, Blue Ocean Capital Partners Contributors include: Andrew Abercrombie Chairman, The Abercrombie Group Ross Barker Managing Director, Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited Max Burger Executive Chairman, Golien Tony Burgess Chief Executive Officer, Flagstaff Partners Mr Benjamin Gray Managing Director & Partner, TPG Capital (Australia) Pty Ltd Greg Martin Chairman, Prostar Capital

19 8:30 AM - 9:15 AM Entertainment Centre – lower

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Pratt Oration The soul of capitalism As the global services economy gains weight, and many of the products and services being traded increasingly lose mass, we slowly begin to get an idea of what philosopher of capitalism, Dr Hiroshi Tasaka, refers to when he describes a new capitalism called ‘Invisible Capitalism’. This new capitalism might be least familiar of all to the Western ear, although those dealing with Asia are beginning to understand the value of those intangible things we might otherwise dismiss as ‘cultural’. This trend is one of many ahead on our future path and through a structural understanding of historical forces, we might be able to clear the fog along the way, see how industries might evolve and transform, and what technologies may appear.


Sunday 25 August Addressed by Dr Hiroshi Tasaka Professor, Tama University Moderated by Michael Roux Founder, ADC Forum 20.1 9:20 AM - 10:35 AM Entertainment Centre – upper

Future world order Geopolitics is marked by disruption, as wealth and power are moving from the North and the West to the East and the South, and the old order dominated by the United States and Europe is giving way to one increasingly shared with non-Western rising states. The states currently rising to positions of significant economic strength, emerging from an impoverished and colonial past, do not necessarily share traditional liberal ideas. As a multipolar world emerges, established interests are being challenged and capitalism is taking new forms. Historically, the world has often struggled to adapt and to develop appropriate institutions and modes of interaction in response to emerging new patterns of relationships, with increasing debate about sovereignty and supranationality. Bringing diverse perspectives to international relations, the panel will explore the implications of the shifting and often tumultuous global dynamics. Panellists Charles Emmerson Senior Fellow, Chatham House Dr Martin Jacques Senior Visiting Research Fellow, IDEAS, London School of Economics Professor Mahmood Sariolghalam Professor, National University of Iran Claude Smadja President, Smadja & Associates Moderated by Nik Gowing International Broadcaster, BBC World News

20.2 9:20 AM - 10:35 AM Planters

Mining and resources The end of the commodity super cycle has initiated cost-cutting in the mining industry to offset the increasing costs of doing business. The uncertainty in demand has created a investment culture that gravitates more towards higher quality projects, and we can probably expect further industry consolidation. The industry still has an inflationary pull effect on the rest of the economy and skills shortages remain. While competitiveness remains a concern of the industry, the super profit tax didn’t have


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Sunday 25 August the bite that many feared, and a culture of resource nationalism is unlikely to abate while the industry is seen as a potential contributor to a national sovereign wealth fund thus trumping short-term efficiency and foreign market concerns.

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What is the outlook for commodity prices and how likely will it be that India picks up the slack in the global commodity market?

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Which resource asset classes and parts of the sector are likely to outperform others during the longer down cycle?

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How will the industry’s social licence to operate fare in terms of demand for assets, such as coal, which are already under pressure strengthening national and international climate policy?

Panellists Peter Bond Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Linc Energy Greg Martin Chairman, Prostar Capital Tim Toohey Head of Economics, Commodities and Strategy, Goldman Sachs Moderated by Susan Li Anchor, Bloomberg Television 20.3 9:20 AM - 10:35 AM Entertainment Centre – lower

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Food and agriculture - a cornucopia of innovation Part 1: Manna from the sky - the new hanging gardens of Babylon - with Dickson Despommier Horizontal farming has been the norm since the Neolithic period around 10,000 BC. Horizontal farming takes up significant areas of land where there is fertile soil and has resulted in the destruction of many of the world’s forests as human population grew. Gradually we are starting to see the value in higher density urban living, but the same principle really ought to apply to agriculture. By the year 2050, nearly 80% of the earth’s population will reside in urban centres. Applying the most conservative estimates to current demographic trends, the human population will increase by about 3 billion people during the interim. An estimated 10 billion hectares of new land (about 20% more land than is represented by the country of Brazil) will be needed to grow enough food to feed them, if traditional farming practices continue as they are practised today. At present, throughout the world, over 80% of the land that is suitable for raising crops is in use. Historically, some 15% of that has been laid waste by poor management practices. Vertical farming is a 21st century hunger and conservation solution which promises urban renewal, sustainable production of a safe and varied food supply, and the eventual repair of ecosystems that have been sacrificed for horizontal farming.


Sunday 25 August Part 2: Transforming the food bowl - panel discussion Agriculture is not popularly associated with notions of innovation and disruption, but not only is agriculture a focus of significant R&D, food innovation will be critical to ambitions to develop the north of Australia. Adequate, healthy and safe food access and affordability will also be important for broader security in the region. Challenges such as climate change, population and demand for protein will test our capacities for adaptation and strategic development.

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What are the disruptive scenarios on the horizon for the agricultural industry and food sector over the next 10 years?

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What are the likely changes in food demand and distribution patterns, and to what extent should the north of Australia be integrated with the SE Asia food bowl?

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How do we both meet the demand for increased food requirements across the Asia-Pacific and optimise human health, sustainability and the urban-agricultural-forest balance?

Introductory Remarks Professor Dickson Despommier Professor of Public Health and Microbiology, Columbia University Panellists Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Chief Executive Officer, Future Directions International Pty Ltd Professor Robert Henry Director, Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation Ian McLeod Managing Director, Coles Group Limited Moderated by Bruce Cowley Chairman, Minter Ellison Lawyers 10:35 AM - 11:00 AM

Morning tea – Lions Court

21.1 11:05 AM - 12:20 PM Entertainment Centre – lower

Technological disruption and new business models As the pace of disruptive innovation is increasing, some companies have turned this phenomenon into amazing success, but the marketplace is littered with the skeletons of companies who were too slow to recognise new realities and respond to them. Often it is not that firms fail to perceive new technologies as they develop, but the original returns are too low to merit the diversion of investment resources from other areas. What is clear is that traditional business models are not effective in positioning companies to catch, or even more significantly, to generate the new waves. Disruption should not be seen as something to be


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Sunday 25 August feared, but as a springboard to new products and markets and greater returns. The companies which will succeed are those that develop dynamic and adaptive business structures, embracing the opportunities presented by disruption.

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What does industry disruption actually look like and how can it be perceived as distinct from the proliferation of new technologies?

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Are some sectors more vulnerable to disruption than others, and what are the most likely sectors for the next waves of disruption?

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What are the characteristics of companies, even industries, which thrive through disruption, and can business models be adjusted or designed to better capture or capitalise on disruptive opportunities?

Panellists Philip Evans Senior Partner and Managing Director, Boston Consulting Group Nik Gowing International Broadcaster, BBC World News Dr Hiroshi Tasaka Professor, Tama University Moderated by Alex Pollak

21.2 11:05 AM - 12:20 PM Planters

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Towards more engagement with the region As much as Australia is striving for geographical integration with the region, it has had an ambivalent relationship with its north for much of modern history. More recently, attention has been granted to new emerging global sources of power. As the country tracked the shift from the United Kingdom to the United States, our enthusiasms orient now towards China, India and increasingly Indonesia. As Australia begins to lose its relative advantages in the region while planning to benefit from the region’s burgeoning development, perhaps it is time to review the modes of diplomatic, trade and commercial engagements, and the likelihood of success in achieving satisfactory benefits within a bilateral context. We also need to consider the case for stronger multilateral groupings to respond to concerns about the dynamics and force of some of the patterns of development in the region.

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What opportunities exist for Australia to work more effectively with its ASEAN neighbours?

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How can Australia begin to engage commercially in the region’s extraordinary growth and development particularly with India and Indonesia?


Sunday 25 August

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What approaches should be employed for assessing and dealing with political risk in the region within the context of commercial engagements?

Panellists Professor Paul Ramadge Executive Director (Global Initiatives) and Vice-Chancellor’s Professorial Fellow, Monash University Benjamin Soemartopo Managing Director, Principal Finance, Standard Chartered Bank Indonesia Dr Arvind Virmani President, Chintan Moderated by Vijay Poonoosamy Vice-President International Affairs, Etihad Airways

21.3 11:05 AM - 12:20 PM Entertainment Centre – upper

Perspectives on the future of energy The volatile nature of energy markets and the unpredictable path of technological innovation make the development of a singular blueprint for international or national energy policies difficult. This session explores various scenarios for the future energy mix, policy enablers and industry structure, as well as which opportunities and risks we cannot afford to ignore. What are the global future energy scenarios and how can nations keep sufficient flexibility in their policy frameworks to enable unexpected shifts and new possibilities to emerge? Contributing Experts Professor Robert Ayres Novartis Chair of Management, INSEAD Peter Bond Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Linc Energy Dr Steven M. Greer Founder, The Disclosure Project Nassim Haramein Director of Research, The Resonance Project Trevor James Chief Executive Officer, Synergy Greg Martin Chairman, Prostar Capital David Ritter Chief Executive Officer, Greenpeace, Australia and Pacific Tim Toohey Head of Economics, Commodities and Strategy, Goldman Sachs Discussion Leader Nick Butler Professor, Kings College London


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Sunday 25 August 22.1 12:25 PM - 1:45 PM Fontaine

The path for Europe As the mood in Europe remains glum, and tensions are unresolved at many levels, the European Union (EU) could be seen as the new sick man of Europe. There is decreasing public support for the EU across most member countries and northern European countries, promoting austerity, are critical of the demands on them and their populations to bail out fractured economies. At the same time, southern European nations are bitter about increasing interference in their sovereign affairs and the social disruption flowing from the economic strictures placed on them, manifested by a strong populist backlash. While the idea of a united Europe is not dead, and Europe’s ability to avert economic ruptures over the last year, albeit often at the last minute, has refuted the blackest predictions of doom, most commentators agree about a need for recalibration of the European model. This session will draw on diverse perspectives in considering how the new Europe might manifest itself.

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Will the EU model weather the current turmoil and how will it be transformed?

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Can there be a united Europe without a common currency? What will be Europe’s role in a changing global geopolitical constellation?

Contributing Experts Nick Butler Professor, Kings College London Jason Collins Chief Executive Officer, European Australian Business Council Rick Falkvinge Founder, The Pirate Party Claude Smadja President, Smadja & Associates Professor Luigi Zingales Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and the David G. Booth Faculty Fellow, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Discussion Leader Charles Emmerson Senior Fellow, Chatham House

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Sunday 25 August 22.2 12:25 PM - 1:45 PM Planters

Doing business in Africa In the minds of many, Africa is seen mainly as a troubled continent, facing huge challenges on many fronts, but that is only one face of Africa and increasingly businesses and investors are seeing Africa as a market they should not ignore. With a population of 1.3 billion people, the continent is rich in resources, has a growing middle class, a sophisticated legal framework in several countries and democracy is gradually spreading. Europe and China are investing heavily and traditionally there have been strong economic ties with the Indian sub continent. Obviously Africa needs to be seen in a differentiated way, but there are opportunities for Australian companies in a range of sectors including mining, education, health and agriculture, where the two continents share many similarities. Western Australian companies are already reaching out, assisting with resources projects and reaping benefits but the opportunities are much wider. This session explores the challenges as well as the potential of doing business in Africa, recognising that there is an enormous market, but that business models need to be appropriate to local conditions. Andrew Mwenda is both a prominent journalist and successful entrepreneur operating in Uganda, and presents his deep insights into doing business in Africa and the dynamics of the African Continent. Addressed by Andrew Mwenda Managing Editor, Independent Publications Ltd Moderated by Michael Roux Founder, ADC Forum

22.3 12:25 PM - 1:45 PM Lagoon Lanai

Cities as performance enablers Cities are the locus of much of our nation’s economic activity and their efficiency is critical to economic performance. While Australian cites rank highly on international scales of liveability, such surveys do not expose the nuances of fragmentation of opportunities in our cities. In one of the most urbanised nations in the world, Australian cities are continuing to be challenged by continuing population and household growth, and governments are struggling to provide adequate infrastructure to alleviate existing problems, let alone prevent future disparities. One of the key issues impacting on urban performance is access to the right type of housing in the right location, but in Australia there are significant cost barriers, with housing costs amongst some of the highest in the world.


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Sunday 25 August Economic opportunity and social opportunity in cities are inextricably intertwined and comprehensive policies are needed to manage urban development, including development of models to apportion a greater share of growth to regional cities. While governments produce plan after plan, the process is highly politicised and there is a dearth of shared visions at both state and federal levels. This session will explore courses of action which transcend political rhetoric and address the fundamentals required to enhance the performance of our cities and enable them to be more resilient during an era of disruption and budgetary constraints.

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What are new models of infrastructure delivery to meet the challenges of urban growth?

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How can the developing schisms of opportunity within cities be avoided? What is the effect of the housing market on overall productivity, and how can housing be made more affordable and accessible?

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How do we build urban policy consensus which transcends political cycles and what are the policies to deliver resilient cities?

Contributing Experts Professor Dickson Despommier Professor of Public Health and Microbiology, Columbia University Romilly Madew Chief Executive, Green Building Council Australia Dr Janet Stanley Chief Research Officer, Monash Sustainability Institute Professor John Stanley Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies, The University of Sydney Mark Williams Director, Greater China and Asia, Ray White Group Moderated by Dr Chris Lowe Executive Director, Bus Association of Victoria 22.4 12:25 PM - 1:45 PM Pool Lanai

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Role of the banks The last decade has seen tremendous growth in the financial sector across the globe, together with enormous volatility and crises. The traditional underpinnings of the banking system are being challenged by external forces, particularly the still not fully resolved Eurozone crisis and regulatory changes such as stricter liquidity requirements, growing consumer protection regulations and the Basel III reforms as well as tightening tax regulations in the USA. Australian banks have largely been spared the buffeting which impacted on banks in many developed economies, and are amongst the most highly rated and profitable banks in the world.


Sunday 25 August The challenge for the regulatory regime is not only to prevent recurrence of previous excesses and crises, but to anticipate and avert new ones, whilst not causing excessive market disruption. It is also necessary to recognise the differing expectations of banks as businesses accountable to shareholders, and their broader social role and responsibility, especially in light of the lower cost of funding enabled by government support. Thus banks can be seen as more than commercial enterprises, but as a form of social infrastructure, playing a critical role in national development.

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How should the role of banks as commercial enterprises and as social institutions be mediated?

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Is there a disconnect between the financial economy and the total economy and how should this be resolved?

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How can Australian banks be resilient and can they be insulated from the global volatility in financial markets?

Contributing Experts Saul Eslake Chief Economist Australia & New Zealand, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stuart Grimshaw Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Bank of Queensland Limited Robert Johanson Chairman, Australia Indian Institute; Chairman, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Paul Schulte Chief Executive Officer, SGI Research Moderated by Christopher Selth Advisor, ADC Forum


Indigenous development - a new paradigm? Australia’s attempts to deal with complex and pressing Indigenous issues have been marked by a juxtaposition of good intentions and failed outcomes and, again, fresh approaches are required. Part of the problem is learned helplessness, which becomes a vicious cycle – people don’t take responsibility, so government does not entrust it to them. But Indigenous leaders argue that communities don’t need to wait for government to devolve responsibility to them as in many cases they can just take it. We also need to correctly identify who the community is and who speaks for them. Solutions must address economic and social opportunity as well as basic concerns of health and education, and we must be wary of approaches which fail to recognise and navigate cultural norms.


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Sunday 25 August In this session, Indigenous leader, Warren Mundine, will address key issues which must be resolved in developing a new approach to Indigenous development. Addressed by Warren Mundine AO Director, Australian Indigenous Education Foundation Commentators The Hon Ron Merkel QC Owen Dixon Chambers West Susan Moylan-Coombs Head of Production, National Indigenous Television (NITV), SBS Moderated by Terry Moran AC Senior Adviser, Boston Consulting Group 24 2:35 PM - 3:05 PM Entertainment Centre

Liberating capitalism for a new prosperity This session questions whether our system of capitalism itself is due for disruption to improve what is our most fundamental framework architecture for opportunity. Economies are man-made systems which are not immune from the laws of nature, and so we ought to address elements of decay and inefficiency which emerge from the changes which accumulate over time within the broader system. Yet the question of reform remains: can we afford not to fight the forces of corruption that trample the competitive landscape, strangle democracy and threaten the economic liberties of people? And for those who have forgotten what capitalism actually is, what might a rebooted capitalism look like and what opportunities and benefits might it realise for mankind? Addressed by Professor Luigi Zingales Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and the David G. Booth Faculty Fellow, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Moderated by Susan Li Anchor, Bloomberg Television


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Closing panel - shaping the agenda Drawing on diverse backgrounds and reflecting on discussions at the Retreat, the panel will elucidate what they see as some of the key challenges and trends; and present their perspective on the future and how we could endeavour to shape it. The session takes a frank and insightful look at the complex issue of understanding disruption, leveraging this understanding to realise opportunities across the globe, and influencing the national agenda to optimise the potential benefits.


Sunday 25 August Panellists Andrew Abercrombie Chairman, The Abercrombie Group Rick Falkvinge Founder, The Pirate Party Max Burger Executive Chairman, Golien Limited Romilly Madew Chief Executive, Green Building Council Australia Moderated by Nik Gowing International Broadcaster, BBC World News

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Closing Michael Roux Founder, ADC Forum


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