Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 9th.ed., by Walpole, Myers,
... In this course we examine probability theory and its application to statistical ...
STAT 3021
Time: Location: Text: Web page: Instructor: TA:
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Fall Semester 2013
3:35 p.m. to 4:25 p.m. Monday, Wednesday, and Friday Akerman 209 Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 9th.ed., by Walpole, Myers, Myers, and Ye http://www.stat.umn.edu/˜corbett/classes/3021 John Corbett
[email protected] 612-624-5859 392 Ford Hall (office hours TBA) Xuetong Sun
[email protected] 350 Ford Hall 12:30 p.m.– 2:30 p.m. Thursday
Test Schedule What
When
First Test Second Test Third Test Fourth Test Final Exam
September 27 October 18 November 15 December 4 December 16 (8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.)
Length
Weight (%)
50 minutes 50 minutes 50 minutes 50 minutes 2 hours
15 15 15 15 40
General Information In this course we examine probability theory and its application to statistical problems. We will cover most of chapters 2–6 and chapters 8–11 of the text. We do not meet on November 29 (part of Thanksgiving Day Break). However, we are scheduled to meet Wednesday, November 27. Registration You must be registered to attend this class. If you are taking this class Pass/Fail (registered s/n), then you should know that only work at c− or better level earns a passing grade. (A grade of d+ would become an n.) If you want to audit the class, you must register as an auditor (v). A request for an i grade is granted only in exceptional situations—you would be earning a passing grade on all the course work before the final exam but events beyond your control prevent you from taking the final exam at the usual time. An i will not be given merely to postpone a test you have not prepared for, nor to allow retaking the course later as an attempt to avoid receiving a low grade this term. Test Schedule The topics and dates for the midterm tests are subject to change, but any changes would be announced in class and on the class web page. The midterm tests are in our regular classroom, but the final examination will probably not be in our usual classroom. The location for the final examination will be announced near the end of the semester. The final examination will be December 16; you should expect midterm tests on September 27, October 18, November 15, and December 4. Each midterm test will take the entire class period and covers about one fourth of the course content. The final examination lasts for two hours and covers the entire course. Some tests may be “closed book” (no books or notes allowed); others may be “open book” (books, notes, and calculators are allowed). Rules for each test will be announced in class before the test date. You are expected to be ready to take the tests and exams when they are scheduled. Usually there are no makeup tests. If an Watch for changes to this information that may be announced in class or on the web page.
STAT 3021
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Fall Semester 2013
unavoidable conflict develops, then you must contact me before the test or exam is given, so we can discuss your options. Otherwise, you risk getting a score of zero if you miss a test. You may be asked to provide documentation for any medical excuse. If there is a valid excuse for missing a test I may use the final exam score in place of the missed test score. Calculators and other electronic devices I assume that you have a calculator, and that you know how to use it. You don’t need an elaborate machine—a basic scientific calculator is sufficient—but you should be able to work with logarithms, exponents, and so on. Normally you may use a calculator for tests and exams. Your answers should look about the same whether or not you use a calculator—you have to show all the steps you took to solve a problem if you want to get any credit for it. Merely pushing a button and running a calculator’s built-in program is not the same as demonstrating that you know how to solve a test problem. Also, if you find an answer by “brute force” methods (just trying lots of arithmetic on a calculator) you will not receive credit. All other types of electronic devices—especially those with wireless capabilities—are banned. Any such item you bring to an exam you have to stow, turned off, under your seat, out of easy reach. Grade Your grade for the course is based on a weighted average of the test scores and the final examination. Each test counts for 15% and the final exam counts for 40%. On a 0–100 point scale, a score of 90 or higher will be at least an A−, a score between and 80 and 90 will be at least a B−, a score between 70 and 80 will be at least a C−, and a score between 60 and 70 will be at least a D. These values may be adjusted slightly, but you will not have to earn more than these score values to get each of these letter grades. Help I will hold regular office hours; otherwise, sending e-mail to
[email protected] is the best way to contact me, but please put “STAT 3021” in the subject line of any e-mail you send me. Special needs Some students may need accommodations cleared through Disability Services. These students should let me know of their needs within the first two weeks of the semester. University Policies Many of the points discussed in this handout are based on official University policies. There is an Official University Policy on just about any topic. You can find more information about them at http://www.policy.umn.edu/Policies/Education/index.htm#ctgeducation . Web Disclaimer The web page is not intended to be a substitute for attendance. Students are held responsible for all announcements and all course content delivered in class.
Watch for changes to this information that may be announced in class or on the web page.
STAT 3021
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Fall Semester 2013
Tentative Course Outline Section
Topic
2.1–2.2 2.3 2.4–2.5 2.6 2.7 3.1–3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1–5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.1–6.2 6.3–6.4 6.5 6.6 8.1–8.2 8.3–8.4 8.6 9.1–9.4 9.5–9.6 9.8–9.9 9.10–9.11 10.1–10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.8–10.9 11.1–11.2 11.3–11.4 11.5–11.6
Sample Space Counting Probability Conditional probability Bayes’ rule Random Variables Continuous distributions Joint distributions Expectation Variance Linear combinations Binomial & Multinomial Hypergeometric Negative Binomial Poisson Uniform & Normal Normal Normal approximation to Binomial Gamma & Exponential Sampling Sample mean t distribution Estimating µ Standard Error; Prediction Intervals Difference of means Proportions Tests More on tests Tests for a mean Two means Proportions Regression Least Squares Inference & Prediction
Page Suggested Problems 42: 51: 59: 69: 76: 91: 92: 104: 117: 127: 137: 150: 157: 164: 165: 185: 185: 193: 206: 231: 241: 259: 282: 282: 294: 302: 334: 335: 356: 357: 365: 398: 412: 412:
4a, 5, 14, 17 22, 30, 31, 33, 37 52, 54, 58, 59, 60, 64, 65 75, 81, 89, 91 95, 97, 101 3, 8, 11, 12, 13 6, 7, 17, 19, 21 38, 39, 40, 41 2, 5, 9, 10, 14, 17, 20 34, 35, 36, 38, 43 53, 57, 60, 62, 64, 65, 66 3, 9, 18a, 25 33, 36, 37(1st part) 49, 50, 52 57, 58, 61, 67 5, 7, 9, 15 3, 4, 17, 18 24, 33 41, 45, 46 2, 9, 13, 14 20, 23, 26, 28, 30 47, 48 2, 4a, 5, 6, 10, 11 15, 16 35, 38, 41, 43, 44 54, 64, 66 3, 6, 7 8, 11, 15, 16 19, 20, 21, 23, 25 31, 35, 36, 42 55, 60, 63 2, 3, 10 19 26, 27a, 27b
Watch for changes to this information that may be announced in class or on the web page.
