water Article
Using a Hierarchical Approach to Calibrate SWAT and Predict the Semi-Arid Hydrologic Regime of Northeastern Brazil Carlos A. S. Santos 1,2, *, Carina Almeida 2 , Tiago B. Ramos 2 Rodrigo Oliveira 3 and Ramiro Neves 2 ID 1 2
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ID
, Felizardo A. Rocha 1 ,
Engineering Department, Instituto Federal da Bahia, Bahia 45030–220, Brazil;
[email protected] Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa 1049–001, Portugal;
[email protected] (C.A.);
[email protected] (T.B.R.);
[email protected] (R.N.) Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa 1049–001, Portugal;
[email protected] Correspondence:
[email protected] or
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Received: 13 July 2018; Accepted: 23 August 2018; Published: 25 August 2018
Abstract: The Paraguaçu watershed in northeastern Brazil faces increasing water scarcity, with water resources unable to meet the increasing demand. Accurate assessment of water availability is thus essential for efficient planning and management of local resources. In this work, the potential of the SWAT model for predicting daily and monthly variability of the hydrologic regime of the Paraguaçu River was assessed. Model calibration/validation followed: (i) A hierarchical framework; (ii) the assessment of maximum, average and minimum streamflow based on paired t-test and linear regression analysis; and (iii) the definition of permanence curves for streamflow with a probability of occurrence of 90% (Q90) and 95% (Q95). The goodness-of-fit indicators revealed a “satisfactory” model performance (model efficiency ranged from 0.42 to 0.83) when predicting streamflow in monitored sub-basins using a unique set of parameters for wet and dry conditions. The flow duration curves also showed that the model underestimated higher flows resulting from extreme events but performed well for flows with exceedance probabilities of
