weekly football tip sheet

weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 19 NFL WEEK 18 college football week 19

Football Weekly

INDEX

Rotation Schedule..........................................................................................2 Recent NFL Wildcard Playoff Trends.............................................................3 NFL Wild Card Playoff Matchups...................................................................6 Football Line Moves......................................................................................10 Bowl Game Matchups: January 1-6...........................................................11

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

Thanks for picking up a copy of Issue #19 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication. This is a special issue in many ways, as we wrap up the college football season with the remaining bowl games, including of course the national title contest between Auburn & Florida State. We also open up what will be four dedicated NFL playoff issues.

The NFL regular season has wrapped up and we are moving into full playoff coverage mode for this week. For each of the four wildcard round games, we are offering a full page of coverage, including stat matchups, written previews, head-to-head histories between the teams, our strength ratings, and of course, picks and Best Bets for every game. With the playoffs upon us, we are also dedicating our feature articles for the rest of the year to analyzing the trends and key handicapping angles from playoffs past. This week’s article deals exclusively with the wildcard round, and you might be surprised to find some of the highly distinctive angles we have uncovered. Be sure to not place a single playoff bet this weekend until at least consulting this week’s piece. Every one of the four games is affected by something in the article. The week 17 games were good to our pick guys once again, particularly VI Paul, who went 7-3 ATS overall and 3-0 on Best Bet selections. If you’re keeping track, that is now six straight Best Bet ATS wins for Paul, and he is a season-high 5-games over .500 in that category. VI Jim also hit on two of three Best Bets, and as a team, the guys were a profitable 6-3 ATS. It’s been a good run and the guys seem to be heating up just in time for the postseason. For htose of you following the Consensus plays so closely, those were 5-5, so in a sense, the non-losing streak continues for a seventh straight week. Over that span, VI Consensus picks are now 46-21-2 ATS in the NFL. While we are talking about the playoffs, we’d like to take this chance to let you know about the schedule for the coming weeks. Next week will be the divisional round issue, the following Tuesday we will be covering the AFC & NFC Championship games. Finally, in the special edition Super Bowl issue, two weeks afterward, we will be tackling the football world’s biggest game indepth, with coverage and analysis on many different angles and wagering options available for the contest. Speaking of big games, there’s still plenty of key action left in the college ranks, and you’ll find coverage for all of the BCS bowl games, plus the remaining lesser action in this final week of the college football season. We appreciate your continued support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and we wish you & your families a warm & Happy New Year 2014!

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AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3

Football Weekly

ROTATION SCHEDULE

ROTATION SCHEDULE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2014 GATOR BOWL EVERBANK FIELD - JACKSONVILLE, FL 247 NEBRASKA 61.5 60.5 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN2 248 GEORGIA -10 -9 HEART OF DALLAS BOWL COTTON BOWL - DALLAS, TX 249 UNLV 56 54.5 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU 250 NORTH TEXAS -7 -6.5 CAPITAL ONE BOWL FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL - ORLANDO, FL 251 WISCONSIN -1 0 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ABC 252 SOUTH CAROLINA 49 51 OUTBACK BOWL RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM - TAMPA, FL 253 IOWA 49 47 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN 254 LSU -8 -7 ROSE BOWL ROSE BOWL - PASADENA, CA 255 MICHIGAN ST 44 42.5 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN 256 STANFORD -1.5 -4.5 FIESTA BOWL UNIV. OF PHOENIX STADIUM - GLENDALE, AZ 257 UCF 69.5 68 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 258 BAYLOR -18 -17

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES cont'd FRIDAY, JANUARY 3, 2014 ORANGE BOWL SUN LIFE STADIUM - MIAMI, FL 263 CLEMSON 67 67 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 264 OHIO ST -5 -3

101 102 103 104

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS SATURDAY, JANUARY 4, 2014 KANSAS CITY 46 47 P: 1:35PM C: 3:35PM E: 4:35PM NBC INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 -2.5 NEW ORLEANS 54.5 55 P: 5:10PM C: 7:10PM E: 8:10PM NBC PHILADELPHIA -2.5 -2.5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAME COMPASS BOWL LEGION FIELD - BIRMINGHAM, AL 265 HOUSTON 54 54 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN 266 VANDERBILT -1.5 -3

105 106 107 108

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS SUNDAY, JANUARY 5, 2014 SAN DIEGO 46.5 47 P: 10:05AM C: 12:05PM E: 1:05PM CBS CINCINNATI -6.5 -7 SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 -3 P: 1:40PM C: 3:40PM E: 4:40PM FOX GREEN BAY 48 49.5

THURSDAY, JANUARY 2, 2014 SUGAR BOWL SUPERDOME - NEW ORLEANS, LA 259 OKLAHOMA 51.5 51.5 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 260 ALABAMA -14 -15

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAME GO DADDY BOWL LADD - PEBBLES STADIUM - MOBILE, AL 267 ARKANSAS ST 63.5 63.5 P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN 268 BALL ST -8 -9

FRIDAY, JANUARY 3, 2014 COTTON BOWL AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX 261 OKLAHOMA ST 62.5 60.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FOX 262 MISSOURI -3.5 -1

MONDAY, JANUARY 6, 2014 BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ROSE BOWL - PASADENA, CA 269 AUBURN 64 67 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 270 FLORIDA ST -9.5 -9

2 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly

The NFL has become increasingly unpredictable from season to season, and the nature of the playoffs in recent years have truly defined this. It is virtually impossible to judge a team’s body of work until the season is wrapped up. The wildcard round of the playoffs has embodied this unpredictability as much as anything else lately. In fact, after writing a couple of years ago about how well road teams had been doing in the wildcard round, wouldn’t you know it, the home teams came up with a weekend sweep, including one huge home dog upset. That was followed last year by a 3-1 SU & ATS weekend for the hosts. With wins in seven of the last eight wildcard games, perhaps home teams are starting to get rebuild the edge they enjoyed in the 90’s. We’ll see how this year’s wildcard games turn out. In any case, the level of unpredictability makes it very tough for football bettors. One other trend that has developed in recent years that has been truly significant is the emergence of the eventual champion from wildcard weekend. In fact, six of the league’s last eight champions have started their playoff journey during this weekend, so it sometimes makes more sense to just throw away anything you think you may have learned in the 17 weeks of the regular season. Is the eventual Super Bowl Champion, like Baltimore a year ago, one of the teams playing this weekend? Only time will tell. With the overbearing perception of unpredictability on our minds, we at Vegas Insider thought we’d go back and dig through the database of the recent playoff logs and see if we couldn’t uncover any tips of the trade that might help better handicap the wildcard weekend games. We looked at it all, home/road scenarios, dogs/favorites, lines, stats, you name it. Continue reading to see what we’ve found, and then see if you can’t apply to the upcoming action.

GENERAL WILDCARD PLAYOFF ATS TRENDS

• The OUTRIGHT winner has covered the pointspread in the L22 Wildcard Playoff games! The last team to not do that was Jacksonville, who won at Pittsburgh 31-29 as a 3-point road favorite in 2008. Regardless of the pointspread, if you can’t see the team you’re betting on winning the game, don’t do it. • Home field advantage had meant very little in Wildcard Playoff action prior to the 2012 games, but hosts swept all four games that year SU & ATS to turn the tide. It was the first time since the ’06 season playoffs that happened. They followed that up with a 3-1 SU & ATS record last January. • Favorites were 4-0 SU & ATS in the ’13 Wildcard Playoffs after underdogs are now on a 7-1 SU & ATS surge over the last two years.

WILDCARD TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER

• #6 seeds went on a 5-1 SU & ATS from 2008 through 2011, but have now lost four straight games, both outright and ATS.

RECENT NFL WILD CARD TRENDS

RECENT NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFF TRENDS

• Wildcard road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been eight in the L5 seasons. Those teams are just 4-4 SU & ATS, with Seattle winning at Washington last season as a 3-point favorite. • Home favorites of a TD or more in the wildcard round are a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS since 2005.

WILDCARD TRENDS REGARDING TOTALS

• The common pattern in the L5 years has shown that when road teams have won, UNDER the total has been the result in seven of nine games. Home teams scored just 14.75 PPG in those road wins. • All four wildcard games last year went UNDER the total, all of them by at least a touchdown margin. • Wildcard weekends have either been wildly over or wildly under in recent years, as the last time the totals were split was in 2007. Since then, there have been at least three under games in the weekend three times, and at least three over contests twice.

FOLLOW THE LINE MOVES

Sharp bettors have been right on sides in 15 of the L17 wildcard playoff games, good for 88% ATS!!! This is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3, and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that sharp bettors are favoring the road team. The only games to lose during that span were 1) 2010 Green Bay, who opened as a 2.5-point dog at Arizona only to close as a 3-point road favorite. The Cardinals eventually won 51-45, and 2) 2013 Cincinnati, who opened as a 5-point underdog and closed as a 4-point pooch but lost 19-13. Similarly, but not quite as advantageous, sharp bettors have also done well on totals, winning on all three games that showed total moves in 2012 and in two of three a year ago. Over the L5 wildcard playoff seasons, bettors are 10-6 (62.5%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. Clearly it is worthwhile to follow the line moves in the week leading up to kickoff.

STATS GENERATED IN WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES

• Only one home team that has topped the 20-point mark has lost in the L12 years of wildcard playoff action, going 27-1 SU & 23-4-1 ATS. That was the same 2008 Pittsburgh team mentioned earlier. • Only two home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a wildcard playoff game have won in the L10 years, going 2-18 SU & ATS. Those winners were San Diego, who beat Tennessee 17-6 in ’08, and Houston in 2013, a 19-13 winner over Cincinnati. • The magic point total for road teams is 17 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the wildcard

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3



Football Weekly round were 0-16 SU & ATS since ’02. Teams reaching that total were 22-9-1 ATS. • Teams that gain more first downs are 8-4 SU & ATS in the L3 wildcard playoff seasons • Teams that control the time of possession are on a 20-8 SU & 19-8-1 ATS run in the wildcard playoffs. • Wildcard playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 16-4 SU & 154-1 ATS over the L5 seasons. In 2013, host Green Bay was outrushed by Minnesota by a wide 167-76 margin but still own 24-10. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a wildcard playoff game are on a 14-6 SU & ATS run. • Putting up big passing numbers in wildcard playoff games has been a recipe of success the last two wildcard season, since those teams are 7-1 SU & ATS in that time. That is a change from prior years as teams had tended to put up big passing numbers in catch up mode. • Alternatively, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are far more successful in the long term. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a wildcard playoff game are 27-8-1 ATS since ’04. • Teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent haven’t been as successful as you might think in the wildcard playoffs, but are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS over the L6 seasons.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON WON-LOST RECORD TREND

• If the L5 wildcard playoff seasons have proven anything, it’s that regular season records do not matter one iota when it comes to determining who will win. In fact, teams that won more regular season games are just 7-10 SU & ATS in that span. Three teams shared the same wonlost mark. With divisional winner hosting wildcard teams in this round, it is often road teams sporting the better mark. • Home teams that won fewer games during the season than their wildcard opponent are on a 7-3 SU & ATS surge, including an outright win by Baltimore last January. • Home teams that won nine games or fewer during the regular season are on a 5-0 SU & ATS run in the wildcard playoffs and own a record of 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS since ’03. Strangely, at the same time, hosts that won 12 or more games are also 7-2 SU & ATS in that span. • Road wildcard teams that won 11 or more games and were forced to play in the wildcard round are just 4-7 SU & ATS since ’08.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON OFFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS

4

• Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season have won just six wildcard playoff games in the L4 years, that’s 6-10 SU & ATS. All four home teams in 2013 had scored more points, the first time that happened since ‘05. • Rushing statistics have meant little to nothing when it comes to wildcard playoff success lately, as teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are just 11-9 SU & ATS since ’09. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were just 10-10 SU & ATS in that span. • Wildcard teams with an edge in offensive

passing yardage are also just 10-10 SU & ATS over the L5 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt are 11-9 SU & ATS in that span but have gotten hot of late, going 8-2 SU & ATS in the L10 wildcard games. • Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively, and more yards per play in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to wildcard playoff success, going 10-10 SU ATS over the L5 seasons. All four home teams enjoyed an edge in these categories last year, the first time that occurred since ‘09. • Offensive yards per point has proven to be as effective of an offensive statistical indicator as any other category, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point offensively are only 23-9 SU & 22-9-1 ATS in the wildcard playoffs dating back to ‘06. • Teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are 9-9 SU & ATS since ’08 in wildcard playoff games. • Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were just 10-10 SU & ATS in the L20 wildcard playoff games.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON DEFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS

• Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a 13-5 SU & ATS run in wildcard playoff action. So far, this is the most definitive statistical angle we have found. • Rushing defense has equally effective to rushing offense when it comes to winning wildcard playoff games, as teams that allow fewer rushing yards per game are also 11-9 SU & ATS since ’08. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush were a bit better at 12-8 SU & ATS. • Wildcard teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just 9-11 SU & ATS over the L5 seasons in this playoff round. • Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who’ve held the edge in this category are 10-10 SU & ATS over the L5 seasons. The interesting part is that 16 of the 20 teams with edges in this stat were the road teams. • Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have been quite successful, going 13-7 SU & ATS in the wildcard round since ‘08. Those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a couple of games less at 11-9 SU & ATS. • Wildcard teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those at allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their wildcard playoff games at a 13-7 rate over the L5 seasons, both SU & ATS. • Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 12-6 SU & ATS run since ’08 in wildcard playoff games. • Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were 14-6 ATS in the L20 wildcard playoff games, including wins in all of the last six!

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS COMBINED TREND

• Teams that were better on both offensive and defensive yards per point during the regular season are on an incredible 13-3 SU & ATS winning surge in wildcard playoff games since ’06.

THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly Although we’ve found a few decent trends that you might be willing to put to use this weekend, it’s obvious that stats are not the end all when it comes to handicapping wildcard playoff games. Certain stats, as you probably made notes on, can prove very valuable, others almost certainly not, no more valuable than the flip of a coin. For a quick wrap up though, as you get ready for this weekend’s games, expect the unexpected. Don’t put a whole lot of stock into teams’ records or home field advantage. Think more along the lines of “what have you done for me lately?” Ask yourself specific questions…Do you see a team capable of making a run all the way to Seed# - Home

the Super Bowl playing this weekend? If so, that team will almost certainly get the job done here. Have you followed the line moves all week long leading up to kickoff? Which team has the better quarterback/coach nucleus? Did you note the teams with the key statistical edges, particularly in offensive and defensive yards per point? Did you check the VI Effective Strength Ratings or any other mathematical models that might help project an approximate number of points you can expect from each team? After all, we showed you the key benchmarks that separate winners and losers in the wildcard round.. Proper preparations can certainly help separate the betting winners and losers in the playoffs.

Date

Day

1/3/04 1/3/04 1/4/04 1/4/04

Saturday Saturday Sunday Sunday

#3 - CAROLINA #4 - BALTIMORE #3 - INDIANAPOLIS #4 - GREEN BAY

29 17 41 33

#6 - DALLAS #5 - TENNESSEE #6 - DENVER #5 - SEATTLE

10 20 10 27

-3 -1 -3 -6.5

34 33.5 HOME HOME OVER 40.5 38 ROAD ROAD UNDER 49 49 HOME HOME OVER 44 43.5 HOME ROAD OVER

NFC AFC AFC NFC

1/8/05 1/8/05 1/9/05 1/9/05


#4 - SAN DIEGO #4 - SEATTLE #3 - INDIANAPOLIS #3 - GREEN BAY

17 20 49 17

#5 - NY JETS #5 - ST LOUIS #6 - DENVER #6 - MINNESOTA

20 27 24 31

-5 -6.5 44.5 42.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER -4 -4 53 51 ROAD ROAD UNDER -9.5 -10 55 56 HOME HOME OVER -5.5 -6 47.5 52.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER

AFC NFC AFC NFC

1/7/06 1/7/06 1/8/06 1/8/06


#4 - NEW ENGLAND #3 - TAMPA BAY #4 - NY GIANTS #3 - CINCINNATI

28 10 0 17

#5 - JACKSONVILLE #6 - WASHINGTON #5 - CAROLINA #6 - PITTSBURGH

3 17 23 31

1/6/07 1/6/07 1/7/07 1/7/07


#3 - INDIANAPOLIS #4 - SEATTLE #4 - NEW ENGLAND #3 - PHILADELPHIA

23 21 37 23

#6 - KANSAS CITY #5 - DALLAS #5 - NY JETS #6 - NY GIANTS

8 20 16 20

1/5/08 1/5/08 1/6/08 1/6/08


#3 - SEATTLE #4 - PITTSBURGH #3 - SAN DIEGO #4 - TAMPA BAY

35 29 17 14

#6 - WASHINGTON #5 - JACKSONVILLE #6 - TENNESSEE #5 - NY GIANTS

14 31 6 24

1/3/09 1/3/09 1/4/09 1/4/09


#4 - SAN DIEGO #4 - ARIZONA #3 - MINNESOTA #3 - MIAMI

23 30 14 9

#5 - INDIANAPOLIS #5 - ATLANTA #6 - PHILADELPHIA #6 - BALTIMORE

1/9/10 1/9/10 1/10/10 1/10/10


#3 - DALLAS #4 - CINCINNATI #4 - ARIZONA #3 - NEW ENGLAND

34 14 51 14

1/8/11 1/8/11 1/9/11 1/9/11


#4 - SEATTLE #3 - INDIANAPOLIS #3 - PHILADELPHIA #4 - KANSAS CITY

1/7/12 1/7/12 1/8/12 1/8/12


1/5/13 1/5/13 1/6/13 1/6/13


Score


SUMMARY

Seed# - Road Score OL FL 2003 Season

2004 Season

2005 Season

-3 0 -3 -7

OT

FT

SU

ATS

O/U

Conf

-7.5 39 37.5 HOME -1.5 37.5 37.5 ROAD -2.5 44 44.5 ROAD 3 44 46.5 ROAD

HOME ROAD ROAD ROAD

UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER

AFC NFC NFC AFC

HOME HOME HOME HOME

HOME Push HOME ROAD

UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

AFC NFC AFC NFC

-5 -1 -7 -3

-3 40 39.5 HOME 3 37.5 40 ROAD -11 42 39.5 HOME -3 39.5 39.5 ROAD

HOME HOME HOME ROAD

OVER OVER UNDER UNDER

NFC AFC AFC NFC

17 24 26 27

2.5 3 2.5 3

2.5 51 50 HOME HOME -2 51 51.5 HOME HOME 3 43.5 40.5 ROAD ROAD 3.5 37 38 ROAD ROAD

UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER

AFC NFC NFC AFC

#6 - PHILADELPHIA #5 - NY JETS #5 - GREEN BAY #6 - BALTIMORE

14 24 45 33

-1.5 -3.5 48.5 45.5 HOME -3.5 -3 45.5 34 ROAD -2.5 3 48.5 48.5 HOME -4 -3.5 44 43.5 ROAD

HOME ROAD HOME ROAD

41 16 16 7

#5 - NEW ORLEANS #6 - NY JETS #6 - GREEN BAY #5 - BALTIMORE

36 17 21 30

10 10 -3 -2 -2.5 -1.5 3 3

45.5 44 46.5 41

HOME ROAD ROAD ROAD

HOME ROAD ROAD ROAD

OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER

NFC AFC NFC AFC

#3 - HOUSTON #3 - NEW ORLEANS #4 - NY GIANTS #4 - DENVER

31 45 24 29

#6 - CINCINNATI #6 - DETROIT #5 - ATLANTA #5 - PITTSBURGH

10 28 2 23

-3 -4.5 38 38 -10 -11 58 59.5 -3 -3 48.5 47 8 7.5 34 35.5

HOME HOME HOME HOME

HOME HOME HOME HOME

OVER OVER UNDER OVER

AFC NFC NFC AFC

#3 - GREEN BAY #3 - HOUSTON #4 - BALTIMORE #4 - WASHINGTON

24 19 24 14

#6 - MINNESOTA #6 - CINCINNATI #5 - INDIANAPOLIS #5 - SEATTLE

10 13 9 24

-8 -5 -6.5 2.5

HOME HOME HOME ROAD

HOME HOME HOME ROAD

UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

NFC AFC AFC NFC

2006 Season

2007 Season

2008 Season

2009 Season

2010 Season

2011 Season

2012 Season

-7 -2 -3 2

-6.5 -7.5 50 50.5 -3 -1 46.5 48.5 -9.5 -9.5 38 39 -6.5 -6.5 47 46.5

45 44 46 42

-11 45.5 -4 44 -7 46.5 3 45

44 42 48 45

OVER NFC OVER AFC OVER NFC OVER AFC


5


WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

Football Weekly

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

(101) KANSAS CITY [SU:11-5 | ATS:9-7] AT (102) INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5 | 46) [SU:11-5 | ATS:9-6-1] JANUARY 4, 2014 4:35 PM on NBC - LUCAS OIL STADIUM (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS CITY 26.9 20 28-129 [4.7] 34-21-209 [6.1] 12.6 19.1 19 27-120 [4.5] 37-21-248 [6.7] 19.3 +18 +7.8 INDIANAPOLIS 24.4 20 25-108 [4.3] 36-22-233 [6.4] 14.0 21.0 20 28-125 [4.5] 34-20-232 [6.9] 17.0 +13 +3.4

Kansas City comes into this contest 2-5 (3-4 ATS) in the second half of the season after a 9-0 start. They no doubt gained confidence from their near victory over San Diego in which they could have won the game despite its key starters sitting. The Chiefs are 6-2 and 7-1 ATS on the road and will have to pressure Andrew Luck; however, this will not be easy as Indianapolis has just three turnovers is past six contests. On offense, running back Jamal Charles is the table-setter for Kansas City and when he’s a factor, coach Andy Reid can utilize the play-action passing game with Alex Smith with far greater effectiveness. K.C. is 6-0 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points on the road. While the competition was far from stellar, Indianapolis seems to have regained their confidence having won and covered three straight. The Colts will have the added confidence of beating the Chiefs on the road two weeks ago and owning them with an 11-2 and 10-3 ATS record the past 17 years. Indy forced four Kansas City turnovers in the last meeting and has eight in their past three outings. They they will seek to stop the Chiefs on early downs to take them play out of character. Luck knows what to expect out of receiver T.Y. Hilton and his trust level has risen with the lesser names. He’ll need them to step on Saturday. GAME TRENDS • INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 ATS(L2Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(CS) • KANSAS CITY is 1-4 ATS(CS) - AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 60%+ WINNING PCT(CS) • INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Conference games STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 101 KANSAS CITY 102 INDIANAPOLIS

Actual 46 -2.5

Power Ratings Rtg Line Edge? 25 23 -1.1

Effective Strg Proj Edge? 23.5 22.0

Simulation Proj Edge? 21.0 24.8

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 22.8 21.5

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN These AFC combatants met two weeks ago with Indianapolis a 23-7 victor, raising their record to 11-2 and 10-3 ATS the last 17 years. This will be just the sixth confrontation in Indy, with the Colts 4-1 and 3-2 ATS in previous get-togethers. From the betting perspective, the road team is on a little 4-1 ATS run. The Under is 5-1 and the average total score when the number has gone below is 29 points. This will be the Chiefs fourth playoff game since 1997 and they are 0-4 SU and ATS, falling twice to Indianapolis. This will be the Colts 21st playoff contest since 2000 and they are 10-10 SU and ATS. VI PICKS

VI Jim

77-86 (47%) 24-23 (51%)*

VI Jason

78-85 (48%) 25-24 (51%)*

VI Paul

79-84 (48%) 27-22 (55%)*

Power Ratings

91-72 (56%)

Effective Forecaster Bettors Strength Ratings 84-79 (53%)

81-52 (50%)

77-86 (47%)

Consensus 87-76 (53%)

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

January 4, 2014 - (101) KANSAS CITY at (102) INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) Kansas Kansas Indianapolis* Kansas Kansas Indianapolis Kansas City* City* City City City January 4, 2014 - (101) KANSAS CITY at (102) INDIANAPOLIS - TOTAL (47) UNDER UNDER UNDER* UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Kansas City UNDER

BEST BET VI Paul says…As I have stated in the past, revenge does not mean what it used to. In previous years, teams would be all fired up and do whatever it takes to not lose again. But today’s player thinks differently and if one team feels they have an edge on another, this gives them more confidence knowing they can defeat this foe again. This is the case with Indianapolis, who has won six straight (5-1 ATS). Let’s consider the Colts 13-3 and 12-4 ATS record at home the past two years and the fact the Chiefs are surrendering 27.2 PPG in their last seven. Let’s top this off with Kansas City being 1-9 ATS in recent playoff games and its Indy by 8.


Football Weekly

(103) NEW ORLEANS [SU:11-5 | ATS:8-8] AT (104) PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 | 54.5) [SU:10-6 | ATS:8-8] JANUARY 4, 2014 8:00 PM on NBC - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 25.9 22 24-92 [3.8] 41-28-307 [7.6] 15.4 19.0 17 24-112 [4.6] 32-19-194 [6.1] 16.1 0 +6.9 PHILADELPHIA 27.6 22 31-160 [5.1] 32-19-258 [8.1] 15.1 23.9 23 28-104 [3.8] 42-25-290 [6.9] 16.5 +12 +3.7

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

Because of final minute road losses to New England and Carolina, New Orleans has to take a path which is not preferred. The Saints are 3-5 (1-7 ATS) on the road, scoring almost 50 percent less in away games compared to at home (34 vs. 17.8). Two areas stand out which coach Sean Payton has to rectify if New Orleans is to advance. The pass blocking has to be better, with Drew Brees being hit and sacked far more often this year. On the road, the Saints average almost two fewer yards per pass attempt, which curtails the offense. Robb Ryan’s defense will have to swiftly adjust to the Eagles fast-paced offense. The Saints are 15-5 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 350 or yards a game the last three seasons. Philadelphia is a smoldering 7-1 (5-3 ATS) the second half of the season. Nick Foles has been a revelation since taking over as the starting quarterback, with 27 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. The Eagles rushing offense is the best in the league, with the ever-dangerous LeSean McCoy leading the way. Philly will also have the benefit of unfamiliarity, with New Orleans having to adjust to the pace seamlessly, because a bad opening quarter could spell doom. Head coach Chip Kelly will try and exploit the Saints safeties without Kenny Vacarro. The defensive game plan is to pressure Brees, know where TE Jimmy Graham is at all times and don’t get beat deep. GAME TRENDS • NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 27 PPG or more(CS) • PHILADELPHIA is 0-6-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong teams outscoring opponents by more than 6.0 points per game(CS) • NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 OVER(L5Y) - In Playoff Games STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 103 NEW ORLEANS 104 PHILADELPHIA

Actual 54.5 -2.5


Effective Strg Proj Edge? 24.1 UNDER 23.5



HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN These teams competed last year with New Orleans winning 28-13, giving them consecutive wins and covers. The Saints are 4-1 since 2006, beating the spread three times. In the last two decades, only once has the winner failed to cover with a 9-1 ATS mark. Prior to last year’s Under, the total had gone Over five consecutive times. New Orleans is back in the playoffs after a oneyear hiatus. For decades, they were known as the ‘Aints’, but since 2006, the Saints are 5-3 (3-5 ATS) after the regular season, with all three defeats on the road (0-3 ATS). Going back to 2000, Philadelphia is 10-9 SU and ATS in the postseason and are 7-3 and 5-5 ATS playing at home. VI PICKS

VI Jim

77-86 (47%) 24-23 (51%)*

VI Jason

78-85 (48%) 25-24 (51%)*

VI Paul

79-84 (48%) 27-22 (55%)*

Power Ratings

91-72 (56%)


81-52 (50%)

77-86 (47%)



January 4, 2014 - (103) NEW ORLEANS at (104) PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) Philadelphia New Philadelphia New New Philadelphia New Orleans Orleans Orleans Orleans January 4, 2014 - (103) NEW ORLEANS at (104) PHILADELPHIA - TOTAL (55) UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

New Orleans UNDER

BEST BET VI Consensus says…The general consensus out there among football fans is that New Orleans is in trouble because it hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home. While that is true, you have to consider a whole lot of other things when looking at this game between the Eagles and Saints. First off, the Saints have a veteran nucleus that has been to the top and has won big playoff games before. Quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton are a dangerous combination at this time of year. On the other sideline, much is new for the Eagles in terms of playoff football. Experience will be a factor. On top of that, New Orleans is the better team defensively, and Philadelphia has really struggled to stop teams throwing the football. It all adds up to a New Orleans upset win.


7


WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

Football Weekly

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

(105) SAN DIEGO [SU:9-7 | ATS:9-6-1] AT (106) CINCINNATI (-6.5 | 46.5) [SU:11-5 | ATS:10-5-1] JANUARY 5, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD SAN DIEGO 24.8 23 30-123 [4.0] 34-24-270 [7.9] 15.8 21.8 20 24-107 [4.5] 34-23-259 [7.6] 16.8 -4 +3.0 CINCINNATI 26.9 21 30-110 [3.6] 37-23-259 [7.1] 13.7 19.1 18 24-96 [4.0] 38-23-209 [5.4] 16.0 +1 +7.8

San Diego literally got every break they needed to make the postseason and has a chance to build on their four-game winning streak. The Chargers only loss since just before Thanksgiving has been to Cincinnati, 17-10 at home. What San Diego will have to fix is their run defense which the Bengals abused for 164 yards behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the electrifying Giovani Bernard. The Chargers defense will have to elevate their level of a play in a very challenging environment and they are .500 on the road (4-3-1 ATS). Philip Rivers is having a great season in the Bolts new offense and the emergence of RB Ryan Matthews has been extremely important. You watch Cincinnati play and the only aspect which separates them from Denver and New England is quarterback play. Andy Dalton had four terrible picks against Baltimore, yet his team still won by 17 points. If the Bengals are to reach their potential, Dalton has to play like an elite quarterback. For Cincinnati, “The Jungle” is back, as the Bengals are 8-0 SU and ATS at home, winning by an immense 17.7 points a game. The Cincy defense is hungry for pigskin, having created 21 turnovers at Paul Brown Stadium. Like San Diego, Cincinnati is 5-1 in last six contests and they are 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 10 or more points. GAME TRENDS • CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against inept defensive teams yielding more than 5.9 yards per play(CS) • SAN DIEGO is 5-13 ATS(L3Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(CS) • SAN DIEGO is 14-3 OVER(L5Y) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.2 yards per play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 105 SAN DIEGO 106 CINCINNATI

Actual 46.5 -6.5





HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN This will be the third battle between these squads in 13 months. Cincinnati has won and covered the previous two, including a 17-10 win as a 2.5-point road favorite last month. All together, the Bengals have triumphed the past three times and are on a 4-0 spread run. The last two gatherings have gone Under, though prior to that the Over was 7-0-2 since ’96. This is the Chargers first playoff experience in four years and they are 2-5 (3-4 ATS) dating back nine years. The Bolts are 2-1 SU and ATS on the road. Cincinnati is in the postseason for a record third straight time and is 0-4 SU and ATS since 2004. VI PICKS

VI Jim

77-86 (47%) 24-23 (51%)*

VI Jason

78-85 (48%) 25-24 (51%)*

VI Paul

79-84 (48%) 27-22 (55%)*

Power Ratings

91-72 (56%)


81-52 (50%)

January 5, 2014 - (105) SAN DIEGO at (106) CINCINNATI (-7) Cincinnati* San Cincinnati San Cincinnati San Diego* Diego Diego January 5, 2014 - (105) SAN DIEGO at (106) CINCINNATI - TOTAL (47) OVER* OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

8

77-86 (47%)



Cincinnati

Cincinnati

OVER

UNDER

BEST BET VI Jason says…After two years in a row of having to travel to Houston to take on what used to be a very good Texans team in the wildcard round, the Bengals finally find themselves in a good spot in the 2014 playoffs. Hosting San Diego, Cincinnati is a heavy favorite to get that elusive first playoff win since 1990. You can bet that this team and crowd will be fired up to get it. They have been dominant at home too, winning AND covering the spread in all eight games in Cincinnati, outscoring opponents by 17.6 PPG. With the Chargers being a lesser team to begin with, and having to travel to the chilly east to take on a very hungry team, I just can’t envision an upset. Bengals roll.


Football Weekly

(107) SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 | 48) [SU:12-4 | ATS:11-5] AT (108) GREEN BAY [SU:8-7-1 | ATS:6-10] JANUARY 5, 2014 4:30 PM on FOX - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF SAN FRANCISCO 25.4 18 32-138 [4.4] 26-15-186 [7.1] 12.8 17.0 18 25-95 [3.8] 37-22-222 [6.1] 18.6 +12 +8.4 GREEN BAY 26.1 22 29-133 [4.7] 36-23-267 [7.5] 15.3 26.8 21 27-125 [4.6] 34-21-247 [7.3] 13.9 -3 -0.7

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

No team is hotter heading into the NFL playoffs than San Francisco. The 49ers have won six straight and covered five of the past seven. San Francisco is 11-2 (10-3 ATS) since the end of September and all four losses are against fellow playoff teams. The Niners are also the only road favorite in the wild card round, proving just how good they are. The San Francisco defense continues to be one the best in football and the return to running the ball and having Michael Crabtree as a receiver has stabilized the offense. This formula works and this is why coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 12-4 ATS on the road the past two seasons and as long as they do not turn the ball over, no reason they should not advance. Just in the nick of time, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb returned to save Green Bay’s season. With Rodgers back at the helm, the Packers have a puncher’s chance to pull off the upset. Green Bay needs to quicken the pace against San Fran, who has few reserves, by steadily moving the chains and picking spots for deep throws. The real key for the Pack is their No. 25 total defense, who has to be stout against the run and know where Anquan Boldin is at all times, after he burned them for 13 catches in the opener. Green Bay is 32-14 ATS when they rush for 125 to 150 yards. GAME TRENDS • SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5 PPG(CS) • GREEN BAY is 1-4 ATS(CS) - After ATS win • GREEN BAY is 12-5 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS

BRD #’’s Teams 107 SAN FRANCISCO 108 GREEN BAY

Actual -2.5 48




Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 20.2 UNDER 22.4 GB

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN After dominating San Francisco from 1999 to 2010 with eight straight wins and a 6-1-1 ATS record, Green Bay has lost and failed to cover three in a row. In unusual fashion, the 49ers have done this by scoring, averaging 36.3 PPG, which has taken the Over streak to six since 2006. The Niners are back in the playoffs for a third consecutive season and are 3-2 SU and ATS the two prior years. Before last season, San Fran had not been a playoff favorite since 1998. Since the turn of the century, the Packers are 8-9 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have lost three times at Lambeau Field. The Pack is 3-3 ATS as underdogs in that span. VI PICKS

VI Jim

77-86 (47%) 24-23 (51%)*

VI Jason

78-85 (48%) 25-24 (51%)*

VI Paul

79-84 (48%) 27-22 (55%)*

Power Ratings

91-72 (56%)


81-52 (50%)

77-86 (47%)



January 5, 2014 - (107) SAN FRANCISCO at (108) GREEN BAY (3) Green Green San Green Green Green Green Bay Bay Francisco* Bay Bay Bay Bay January 5, 2014 - (107) SAN FRANCISCO at (108) GREEN BAY - TOTAL (49.5) OVER OVER* OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Green Bay UNDER

BEST BET VI Jason says…After watching Aaron Rodgers rescue Green Bay’s season on Sunday at Chicago, it’s obvious that the Packers are a different team with him than they are without. With him, they are among the best offensive teams in the NFL, a unit that can score on any defense since they can both run and throw the football with equal aplomb now. Unfortunately, their defense continues to struggle to stop opposing teams from doing both. That means San Francisco is probably going to be able to score. When these teams met in week one, the game produced 62 points on nearly 900 yards of offense. In my opinion, this game should offer the higher total of the two NFC games this weekend, take OVER.


9


FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

Football Weekly

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES Here is a look at the line moves for the rest of the bowl games and the wild card round of the NFL.

CFB (54-52)

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL DEC. 31/ 8:00 E ESPN (245) DUKE vs. (246) TEXAS A&M The total elevating from 71 to 75 should come as a surprise to nobody. There is a very good chance this will be Johnny Manziel’s last college football game and he will want to put on a show. Duke can certainly move the pigskin and all season we have witnessed the Aggies defense as a moveable object. Texas A&M is 6-0 OVER after three consecutive spread losses with the average score 83 total points. VIW Take – Play Over ROSE BOWL 5:00 E ESPN (255) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (256) STANFORD With the Pac-12 thought to be a stronger conference than the Big Ten, Stanford went from -3 to -6 against Michigan State. While the Spartans defense is the finest in the country, they will be without first-team All-Big Ten senior linebacker Max Bullough, who was suspended for violating team rules. This sent the spread even higher against the Spartans. The Cardinal has played in more big games than Michigan State, which is another reason they are getting the call in the Rose Bowl. Also, the Stanford offense is more consistent than Michigan State’s and they are 8-1 ATS on the road when on grass the past three years. VIW Take – Lean with Stanford TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL 8:30 E ESPN (257) CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. (258) BAYLOR Let’s see, Baylor led the country in scoring at 53.2 points a game and the total went from 66.5 to 69.5, shocker! Well not really. With time to heal, the Bears passing attack should be back in high gear and a name being talked a great deal in NFL scouting circles as a high draft choice is Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles. Baylor is 10-1 OVER when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last three seasons. VIW Take – Play Over

10

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL 8:30 E ESPN (263) CLEMSON vs. (264) OHIO STATE With two quality quarterbacks and two defenses which have allowed a hefty amount of points against the better teams they have faced, scoring is not anticipated to be a problem. The oddsmakers original release of 66.5 has grown to 70 points. Quarterback Tajh Boyd is the catalyst for the Clemson offense, which averages 40.2 points a game and has first-rate receivers like explosive Sammy Watkins to generate big plays. Ohio State, with Braxton

Miller at the helm, scores even more points at 46.3 points a game, which is why this should be a high-scoring matchup. Against top shelf offenses like Georgia, Florida State and South Carolina, Clemson conceded an average of 39 PPG. The Buckeyes gave up at least 34 points in three of their last four contests. VIW Take – Lean Over GODADDY.COM BOWL 9:00 E ESPN (267) ARKANSAS STATE vs. (268) BALL STATE For the third straight year, Arkansas State will play in a bowl game without the head coach they started the season with. Bryan Harsin after just one season took the Boise State job. The Red Wolves have a balanced attack averaging over 205 yards rushing and passing. Ball State finished the regular season ranked 13th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 40.1 points per game. The Cardinals have a big time passing attack and ranked ninth in the nation with an average of 333.3 yards per game. In the second last bowl game of the season, the aforementioned factors have led to the total leaping from 61 to 63.5. Ball State is 6-0 OVER in away games off two or more consecutive Over’s the last three seasons. VIW Take – Play Under VIZIO BSC NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 8:30 E ESPN (269) AUBURN vs. (270) FLORIDA STATE While Florida State is a fairly significant favorite in the title tilt, what people want to know is can the Seminoles defense stop Auburn’s seemingly unstoppable run game? The short answer is probably not and the total has been altered from 65 to 67.5 points. The other part of this equation is will the Tigers be able to stop Heisman winner Jameis Winston and the Florida State offense? The answer could be the same. However, a month between games is a long time and defensive coaches are often evil genius’s, which could keep the score down. VIW Take – Play Under

NFL (44-28)

(103) NEW ORLEANS at (104) PHILADELPHIA 8:10 E NBC With two Top 10 scoring offenses, naturally scoring would not be considered an issue. The sportsbooks sent this total out at 54.5, but upon closer examination, football bettors have lowered it a point to 53.5. The most glaring rationale is the New Orleans offense on the road. The Saints average just 17.7 points a game when leave Louisiana compared to scoring 34 PPG in the Superdome. The New Orleans defense improved significantly under defensive coordinator Robb Ryan, which contributed to the Saints being 10-2 UNDER against NFC competitors. Factor in the Philadelphia defense has only allowed more than 22 points once since Denver hung 52 points on them in late September and the line movement appears accurate. VIW Take – Play Under


Football Weekly

(247) NEBRASKA [SU:8-4 | ATS:6-6] VS (248) GEORGIA (-9 | 60.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:3-8-1] JANUARY 1, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPN2 - EVERBANK FIELD (JACKSONVILLE, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD NEBRASKA 32.6 23 45-222 [4.9] 30-18-199 [6.6] 12.9 25.3 20 41-161 [3.9] 29-16-206 [7.1] 14.5 -12 +7.3 GEORGIA 38.2 25 37-176 [4.8] 35-23-314 [9.0] 12.8 29.4 20 40-148 [3.7] 30-18-233 [7.6] 13.0 -6 +8.8

GATOR BOWL

GATOR BOWL

In Bo Pelini’s first five years at Lincoln, his team’s has suffered four losses each season and he hopes to keep the streak alive as his 8-4 Cornhuskers prepares to do battle with Georgia. It has been anything but typical for this Nebraska outfit, with devastating injuries, a well below average defense and Pelini in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. The Huskers finished minus-12 for the year in turnover margin and if this trend continues, Nebraska will absorb a fifth defeat. The Georgia offensive skill positions have seen more turnover than a fast food restaurant due to injury. Yet somehow coach Mark Richt got the most out of his players and their only loss in the last five games was Auburn’s miracle reception. Hutson Mason will be the Bulldogs quarterback and he’s been solid and being able to hand the ball to RB Todd Gurley takes some of the pressure off. GAME TRENDS • GEORGIA is 8-2-1 ATS(L3Y) as FAV - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per carry(CS) • NEBRASKA is 1-6 ATS(L3Y) - As underdog • GEORGIA is 9-1-1 OVER(L2Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 247 NEBRASKA 248 GEORGIA

Actual 60.5 -9

Power Ratings Rtg Line Edge? 42 50 -8


Simulation Proj Edge? 29.4 NEB 33.6


HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN This Gator Bowl match-up is a rematch of the New Year’s Day 2013 Capital One bowl. Georgia won it 45-31 as 9’-point favorites behind game MVP Aaron Murray, and the game soared over a 61’ total. The Bulldogs are 12-4 SU in bowls since 1997, and Mark Richt is 8-4 SU. Bo Pelini has lost his last three bowls SU. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


January 1, 2014 - (247) NEBRASKA vs. (248) GEORGIA (-9) Nebraska* Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska Georgia

75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



Nebraska

Georgia

Nebraska

BEST BET VI Paul says…this was to be the last game for quarterback Aaron Murray at Georgia but his injured ACL will keep him out. Quite frankly, with as poor as Georgia’s defense was this season and the fact that injuries prevented them from ever developing any continuity, this is not a team that I would like to trust laying near double-digits in a bowl game. On top of that, they are playing the same team they faced a year ago in postseason action, leading to very little further motivation. Nebraska meanwhile, has the motivation of revenge from last season and in trying to snap a 3-game bowl losing streak. Georgia has better athletes but little else. Nebraska competes hard in the underdog role.



HEART OF DALLAS BOWL

Football Weekly

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL

(249) UNLV [SU:7-5 | ATS:8-4] VS (250) NORTH TEXAS (-6.5 | 54.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:9-3] JANUARY 1, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPNU - COTTON BOWL (DALLAS, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD UNLV 31.2 24 40-181 [4.5] 37-23-242 [6.6] 13.6 31.5 22 43-223 [5.2] 33-17-214 [6.5] 13.9 +6 -0.3 NORTH TEXAS 31.5 21 42-184 [4.4] 31-20-228 [7.3] 13.1 18.1 18 33-127 [3.8] 34-20-230 [6.7] 19.7 +10 +13.4

What this matchup lacks in sex appeal, it makes up for in charm. These two squads won a combined six games in 2012 and are elated to be in this bowl. UNLV has 10 Texans on its roster, including starting running back Tim Cornett and wide receiver Devante Davis and all 22 seniors for North Texas hail from the Lone Star State, which means plenty of family and friends. Both teams feature solid games, averaging over 180 yards on the ground and complimentary passing offenses at over 225 YPG. The significant difference between the two teams comes in stopping the opponents rushing attack. North Texas lives up to the nickname Mean Green in holding opposing offenses to 127 yards and 3.8 yards an attempt. UNLV on the other hand has been gouged for 223 yards at 5.3. This is the Rebels first bowl since 2000 and it’s been since 2004 for the Mean Green. GAME TRENDS • UNLV is 4-1 ATS(CS) - AS underdog of 7 or less points • NORTH TEXAS is 2-6 ATS(L2Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(CS) • NORTH TEXAS is 9-2 UNDER(L2Y) - As favorite STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 249 UNLV 250 NORTH TEXAS

Actual 54.5 -6.5


Effective Strg Proj Edge? 21.4 32.6 NT


Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 21.8 35.5 NT

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN The Mean Green get the advantage of a 40-mile commute to the Cotton Bowl for this Heart of Dallas Bowl matchup. These teams last met in 2009, when the Runnin’ Rebels dominated 38-0 as 16-point home favorites. UNLV hasn’t been to a bowl game since the John Robinson-led 2000 team won the hometown Las Vegas Bowl. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


January 1, 2014 - (249) UNLV vs. (250) NORTH TEXAS (-6.5) UNLV UNLV North North North Texas* Texas Texas

75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



UNLV

North Texas

North Texas

BEST BET VI Paul says…In my handicapping research for the Heart of Dallas Bowl, I came across several articles relating to how truly excited the North Texas players and coaches were about playing in the most insignificant bowl on New Year’s Day. This is the Mean Green’s first bowl assignment in nine years, which alone is a reason to be jazzed up. Also, the talk was about being able to play before family and friends, yet it is not a home game, which helps fuel the emotion. As we know, desire really matters in bowls, thus, take what North Texas is talking about, and add their potent running against UNLV’s substandard run defense and the Mean Green are the play.


Football Weekly

(251) WISCONSIN [SU:9-3 | ATS:9-2-1] VS (252) SOUTH CAROLINA (PK | 51) [SU:9-2 | ATS:5-6] JANUARY 1, 2014 1:00 PM on ABC - CITRUS BOWL (ORLANDO, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF WISCONSIN 35.8 22 43-283 [6.6] 27-17-204 [7.4] 13.6 14.8 16 32-102 [3.2] 33-17-193 [5.8] 19.9 +3 +21.0 SOUTH CAROLINA 30.8 22 42-192 [4.6] 30-18-245 [8.2] 14.2 20.9 18 36-149 [4.1] 28-17-201 [7.2] 16.7 +8 +9.9

Wisconsin might not being going to the Rose Bowl, but off an unimaginable loss to Penn State to end the season and on a three-game bowl losing streak; the Badgers have plenty to play for. Coach Gary Anderson’s first year was a success and the running game was good enough to finish 8th nationally (283 yards) and was more explosive than ever with tandem of James White and Melvin Gordon. The new 3-4 defense had no obvious weakness and finish 15th in the BCS. South Carolina won 10 games again and overcame several obstacles to do. Coach Steve Spurrier’s team underachieved early and QB Conner Shaw’s injury cost them the Tennessee game, yet the Gamecocks kept battling. South Carolina had the best offensive line in the SEC and the finest running back (Mike Davis) to go along with a defense that came together late in the season. One of the best matchups of the bowl season.

CAPITOL ONE BOWL

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

GAME TRENDS • WISCONSIN is 19-7-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per play(CS) • SOUTH CAROLINA is 6-11 ATS(L5Y) - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.3 yards per play(CS) • WISCONSIN is 19-9 OVER(L5Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards per attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS

BRD #’’s Teams 251 WISCONSIN 252 SOUTH CAROLINA

Actual 51 0

Power Ratings Rtg Line Edge? 56 56 0


Simulation Proj Edge? 23.1 UNDER 21.6

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 29.7 WIS 24.5

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN These teams meet for the first time in the Capital One Bowl. The Ol’ Ball Coach has won his last two bowls, but is 3-4 SU in bowls at South Carolina, and 9-10 SU overall. This will be Gary Anderson’s bowl debut at Wisconsin. The Badgers lost the last three consecutive Rose Bowls and are 4-7 SU in bowls since 2002. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


75-92 (45%)

January 1, 2014 - (251) WISCONSIN vs. (252) SOUTH CAROLINA (0) Wisconsin Wisconsin* South South Wisconsin Wisconsin Carolina Carolina

85-82 (51%)



Wisconsin

Wisconsin

BEST BET VI Jason says…Wisconsin was one of the most underrated teams in the country all season long and in essence played just one bad game in 2013. Unfortunately for the Badgers, that was the last game, and ruined any chance they had to get a BCS bid. In any case, Wisconsin played very hard for new head coach Gary Anderson, finishing with a 9-2-1 ATS record, a sign of a gritty team that takes care of business. They also averaged 6.6 yards per rush, a lofty figure topped only by Ohio State. The front line for South Carolina will certainly be tested like no other time this season. Wisconsin also has a strong group of senior players looking for their first bowl win. They were the rightful favorite at line opening, not sure what happened since. Oddsmakers had it pegged initially, Wisconsin is the better team.



OUTBACK BOWL

Football Weekly

OUTBACK BOWL

(253) IOWA [SU:8-4 | ATS:7-5] VS (254) LSU (-7 | 49) [SU:9-3 | ATS:5-6-1] JANUARY 1, 2014 1:00 PM on ESPN - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF IOWA 27.3 20 43-189 [4.4] 29-17-200 [7.0] 14.2 18.8 16 35-121 [3.5] 31-17-182 [5.8] 16.1 +1 +8.5 LSU 37.0 23 39-201 [5.1] 25-16-265 [10.4] 12.6 22.7 20 36-149 [4.1] 31-17-201 [6.5] 15.4 -2 +14.3

Reports of Iowa’s demise have proven to be premature coming off a 4-8 season. The Hawkeyes rebounded with an 8-4 campaign, led by a rugged defense which ranked in the top 20 nationally against both the pass and the run. The defense revolves around a standout group of linebackers; James Morris, Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey, who combined for almost 300 tackles this season. A veteran offensive line paved the way for bruising running back Mark Weisman and quarterback Jake Rudock was much improved in the second half of the season. LSU can match Iowa’s strength and has a decided speed edge. Unfortunately, their edge at quarterback has been taken away with Zach Mettenberger tearing his ACL in his final contest, which turns a very productive offense over to Anthony Jennings. If the freshman quarterback can locate the Tigers sensational wide receivers, this game could turn into a blowout. GAME TRENDS • LSU is 12-4 ATS(L3Y) as FAV - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7 points per game(CS) • IOWA is 7-11 ATS(L3Y) - Against good teams with 70%+ winning pct(CS) • LSU is 14-6 UNDER(L5Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 253 IOWA 254 LSU

Actual 49 -7


Effective Strg Proj Edge? 22.9 OVER 31.0

Simulation Proj Edge? 23.3 IOWA 22.6

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 17.5 33.8 LSU

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN These teams last met in the 2005 Capital One Bowl, when Iowa pulled a 30-25 upset as 5-point underdogs. Les Miles is 5-3 SU in bowls at LSU, but has lost three of the last four, including the 2011 BCS title game. The Hawkeyes are back in a bowl after a one-year absence. Kirk Ferentz is 6-4 SU in bowls with Iowa. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)

January 1, 2014 - (253) IOWA vs. (254) LSU (-7) Iowa LSU LSU LSU


75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



LSU

Iowa

LSU

LSU

BEST BET VI Jason says…unlike Georgia in the Gator Bowl, LSU’s quarterback injury doesn’t leave the cupboard empty, as the Tigers actually have a defense they can lean on to get the job done in Tampa against Iowa. The LSU defense also tends to show up strong in bowl games too, having allowed just 17.7 PPG in their last 10. They aren’t exactly matchup against the nation’s most potent offense either, and it is going to take gimmicks by the Hawkeyes to really put a scare into LSU. I can’t imagine Les Miles drawing up a game plan for Zack Mettenberger’s freshman replacement at quarterback, Anthony Jennings, reliant on big plays through the air. He will lean on the big boys up front and his defense. LSU wins because it is bigger, faster, and better.


Football Weekly

(255) MICHIGAN ST [SU:12-1 | ATS:8-4-1] VS (256) STANFORD (-4.5 | 42.5) [SU:11-2 | ATS:7-6] JANUARY 1, 2014 5:00 PM on ESPN - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA)[NEUT] Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD MICHIGAN ST 29.8 21 41-182 [4.4] 30-17-202 [6.7] 12.9 12.7 15 30-80 [2.7] 33-16-167 [5.1] 19.4 +14 +17.1 STANFORD 33.2 19 42-211 [5.0] 23-14-203 [9.0] 12.5 18.6 20 31-92 [3.0] 40-25-248 [6.2] 18.3 -1 +14.6

ROSE BOWL

ROSE BOWL

The Spartans didn’t back into a trip to Pasadena; they earned in upsetting Ohio State and are the Big Ten champions. Since late September, Michigan State has been the top-rated defense and they lead the nation in more different defensive categories than a pizza called ‘the works’. What changed the Spartans into a champion was the emergence of sophomore quarterback Conner Cook and an offensive line that improved month after month and paved the way for RB Jeremy Langford. This will be Sparty’s first visit here since 1988. Stanford is going to the “Granddaddy” in consecutive years for the first time since 1971-72 and its team is strikingly similar to their opponent. The Cardinal defense is unrelenting and the running offense pounds the opposition into submission. For fans of old school where it is strength on strength, this should be a treat. GAME TRENDS • STANFORD is 26-10-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7 points per game(CS) • MICHIGAN ST is 5-11-1 ATS(L2Y) - On grass field • MICHIGAN ST is 25-13-1 UNDER(L3Y) - All Games STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 255 MICHIGAN ST 256 STANFORD

Actual 42.5 -4.5



Simulation Proj Edge? 19.6 MST 19.5

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 15.5 UNDER 21.7

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN The Rose Bowl gets this No. 4-vs.-No. 5 first-time match-up. The Spartans’ last Rose Bowl appearance came in 1988. Mark D’Antonio has won his last two bowl games, but is 2-4 SU in bowls with the Spartans. The Cardinal are 4-7 SU in bowl games since 1987, and 2-2 SU in the last four years, including last year’s Rose Bowl win. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


75-92 (45%)

January 1, 2014 - (255) MICHIGAN ST vs. (256) STANFORD (-4.5) Michigan Stanford* Michigan Michigan Stanford Michigan St St St St

85-82 (51%)



Stanford

Michigan St

BEST BET VI Jason says…this year’s matchup is very similar to the one from a year ago in which Stanford turned back Wisconsin. Michigan State, like the Badgers did last year, will try to wear down the Cardinal physically, but unfortunately, Stanford is the only team in the Pac 12 that can play that style with equal fervor. It is usually the only advantage the Big Ten has in these games, as the speed difference is usually apparent. It is not a mistake that Pac 12 teams are 19-5-1 ATS in their L25 bowl games against Big Ten foes. On top of that, Stanford has the regional edge in the game, and always shows up motivated to play under David Shaw. Another Pac 12 Rose Bowl win.



FIESTA BOWL

Football Weekly

FIESTA BOWL

(257) UCF [SU:11-1 | ATS:7-5] VS (258) BAYLOR (-16.5 | 68) [SU:11-1 | ATS:9-3] JANUARY 1, 2014 8:30 PM on ESPN - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD UCF 33.2 22 36-152 [4.3] 31-21-280 [9.0] 13.0 19.6 18 30-116 [3.9] 36-20-230 [6.4] 17.7 +7 +13.6 BAYLOR 53.2 29 49-264 [5.4] 33-21-360 [10.8] 11.7 21.2 18 42-136 [3.3] 34-16-208 [6.1] 16.2 +11 +32.0

Glendale, AZ will be the home for two confounding league champions. With the way the AAC and Big 12 stacked up, this is an unlikely pairing, yet both proved they belong. Central Florida knocked off Louisville at their place and survived several close calls (five 2nd half come from behind wins in league play) down the stretch to win the AAC. Quarterback Blake Bortles keyed the Knights offense and the defense was 19th in the country. Baylor’s offense was unstoppable until they lost at Oklahoma State. The Bears still finished first in scoring (53.2) and in yards manufactured (624.2) with QB Bryce Petty and his bombardiers, who averaged 10.8 yards per pass attempt. The Baylor defense has not gotten enough credit for climbing to 17th in total defense. The Bears are significant favorites for the Fiesta Bowl with their complete package and they could wind as the heaviest chalk in the contest since 1976. GAME TRENDS • BAYLOR is 12-2 ATS(L2Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS) • BAYLOR is 23-10 ATS(L3Y) - OU line of 60 or more • UCF is 16-4 UNDER(L5Y) - Non-conference games STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 257 UCF 258 BAYLOR

Actual 68 -16.5


Effective Strg Proj Edge? 21.9 45.5 BAY

Simulation Proj Edge? 25.2 UCF 34.6 UNDER

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 30.4 OVER 48.9

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN These teams meet for the first time in the Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Art Briles is 2-1 SU in bowl games, including Holiday Bowl and Alamo Bowl wins in the last two years. The Knights have been to five bowls in their 18-year history, all under George O’Leary. They are 2-3 SU, and have won their last two. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


January 1, 2014 - (257) UCF vs. (258) BAYLOR (-16.5) UCF* UCF Baylor UCF Baylor

75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



UCF

Baylor

UCF

BEST BET VI Jim says…I have seen several prognosticators referring to UCF as a BCS buster, but there’s really no reason for this. The Knights got an automatic bid by winning the American Athletic Conference, not CUSA. They were only able to get here by knocking off a very tough Louisville team on the road. UCF also put a scare into South Carolina along the way, so there’s no reason for anyone to think that they will be overwhelmed by Baylor. The Bears put up huge regular season numbers, like many Big 12 champs do, only to fall flat in big time bowl games. In fact, Big 12 teams are just 4-13 ATS in their L17 BCS bowl games. Don’t expect a rout here, UCF will show up to compete.


Football Weekly

(259) OKLAHOMA [SU:10-2 | ATS:7-5] VS (260) ALABAMA (-14.5 | 51.5) [SU:11-1 | ATS:7-5] JANUARY 2, 2014 8:30 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA 31.8 21 44-236 [5.3] 28-16-187 [6.6] 13.3 21.3 18 33-138 [4.1] 32-17-198 [6.3] 15.8 +5 +10.5 ALABAMA 38.8 23 35-212 [6.0] 28-19-237 [8.5] 11.6 11.3 14 32-108 [3.4] 26-14-166 [6.4] 24.2 +6 +27.5

SUGAR BOWL

SUGAR BOWL

This is a terrific matchup of two storied program steeped in tradition. Alabama figured to be in Pasadena instead of New Orleans and one at least has to acknowledge what kind of mood the Crimson Tide will be in. In 2008, they lost to Florida in the SEC championship and were a no-show for Sugar Bowl in losing decidedly to Utah 31-17. For the seniors like A.J. MaCarron, do they want to finish their careers on a high note or do they go thru the motions. Interesting call. Oklahoma did not figure to be in the Crescent City either, but by contrast they are thrilled to be in BCS contest. The Sooners have a powerful running offense which finished 18th in the country and an opportunistic defense. Coach Bob Stoops troops also have arguably the finest special teams in the FBS. Alabama better come ready to play. GAME TRENDS • ALABAMA is 8-0 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference VS BCS • OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS(S2000) - VS SEC • ALABAMA is 14-8-1 OVER(L2Y) - as favorite of more than 7 points STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 259 OKLAHOMA 260 ALABAMA

Actual 51.5 -14.5



Simulation Proj Edge? 18.9 OKL 25.4 UNDER

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 13.8 35.8 ALA

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN The Allstate Sugar Bowl gets the first bowl meeting of these two traditional powerhouses since the 1970 Bluebonnet Bowl. The Sooners and Tide did play a home-and-home series in 2002-03. The Sooners won both games SU -- 37-27 in 2002, and 20-13 in 2003. The Tide covered both ATS -- as 12’-point dogs in 2002 and 7’-point dogs in 2003. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


75-92 (45%)

January 2, 2014 - (259) OKLAHOMA vs. (260) ALABAMA (-14.5) Oklahoma Alabama* Alabama Oklahoma Alabama Oklahoma

85-82 (51%)



Alabama

Alabama

BEST BET VI Jason says…Alabama may have had higher hopes than a Sugar Bowl matchup with an overmatched Oklahoma squad, but I don’t see a veteran Nick Saban/AJ McCarron led squad showing up and pouting for the contest. In this type of game, it almost always comes down to motivation, and I can assure you that the Tide will come to play as if they had something to prove. I also can overlook this trend from our conference article: “Domination is an understatement when it comes to bowl matchups between the SEC and Big 12 conferences, as SEC teams boast a 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS in head-to-head games since ’03”. In a year I felt the Big 12 was down significantly, I don’t expect much from them in this bowl game.



COTTON BOWL

Football Weekly

COTTON BOWL

(261) OKLAHOMA ST [SU:10-2 | ATS:8-4] VS (262) MISSOURI (-1 | 60.5) [SU:11-2 | ATS:10-3] JANUARY 3, 2014 8:00 PM on FOX - COTTON BOWL (DALLAS, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA ST 39.8 22 39-172 [4.4] 36-21-268 [7.5] 11.1 20.0 21 38-133 [3.5] 41-23-246 [5.9] 18.9 +15 +19.8 MISSOURI 39.0 24 42-236 [5.7] 32-19-256 [8.1] 12.6 22.5 21 36-152 [4.2] 39-25-255 [6.5] 18.1 +16 +16.5

While the Cotton Bowl had fallen out of the BCS rotation, this season, they have confrontation which is worthy of saying it has a Top 5 matchup. Both Oklahoma State and Missouri fell short in their final games, but still had outstanding seasons. The Cowboys defense was the best of the Mike Gundy era, with seven seniors anchoring. The Oklahoma State offense was not as explosive as prior models, but still was good enough to average 39.7 points a game behind QB Clint Chelf and RB Desmond Roland. Missouri proved they could play with the big boys in the SEC in winning the East Division and its offense had tremendous flexibility to run or pass with QB James Franklin at the helm. Though the defense was abused by Auburn, this is a talented crew, particularly in the defense line and wreaked havoc most of the season. These former Big 12 partners should provide a show. GAME TRENDS • OKLAHOMA ST is 13-4 ATS(L3Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS) • MISSOURI is 5-12-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against good teams with 80%+ winning pct(CS) • OKLAHOMA ST is 17-5 OVER(L5Y) - Against good teams with 80%+ winning pct(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 261 OKLAHOMA ST 262 MISSOURI

Actual 60.5 -1

Power Ratings Rtg Line Edge? 57 56 1




HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN There’s plenty of history with this old Big 12 match-up in the AT&T Cotton Bowl (to be played under the JerryWorld dome). This will be the eighth meeting between these teams since 2000, and the Cowboys are on a 3-0 SU/ATS run, and have won four of the last five SU. The last three games finished under totals of 78, 55 and 70. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


75-92 (45%)

January 3, 2014 - (261) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (262) MISSOURI (-1) Oklahoma Missiouri* Missouri Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma St St St St

85-82 (51%)



Missouri

Missouri

BEST BET VI Jason says…Another Big 12-SEC bowl game finds Oklahoma State and Missouri clashing in the Cotton Bowl. Ironically, it’s the second straight matchup in this game that pits a former Big 12 team against a current one. I expect the same result, only not as big of a margin as last year when Texas A&M routed Oklahoma. Both teams had great underappreciated seasons, but I can’t help but think that the Tigers did it against better competition, and boast the better defensive unit. Not to mention the fact that the SEC is almost always the better team to bet on when these leagues matchup in bowl games. Missouri is the smart play here, backing OSU would be just rolling the dice.


Football Weekly

(263) CLEMSON [SU:10-2 | ATS:6-5-1] VS (264) OHIO ST (-3 | 67) [SU:12-1 | ATS:6-6-1] JANUARY 2, 2014 8:30 PM on ESPN - SUN LIFE STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD CLEMSON 40.2 25 42-174 [4.1] 38-26-329 [8.7] 12.5 21.1 17 41-153 [3.7] 29-15-198 [6.7] 16.6 +4 +19.1 OHIO ST 46.3 26 45-318 [7.0] 26-17-201 [7.6] 11.2 21.3 20 33-103 [3.1] 38-23-260 [6.8] 17.0 +7 +25.0

ORANGE BOWL

ORANGE BOWL

No doubt, both teams will be initially disappointed, particularly Ohio State to be in this bowl game, but with a nearly a month to get over it, each should be ready to play. The Buckeyes defense proved not to be championship material, but they have ample star power to bring into this game with the likes of quarterback Braxton Miller, running back Carlos Hyde and linebacker Ryan Shazier. Clemson lost to both Florida State and South Carolina, lacking the physical strength in either matchup to compete. Nevertheless, quarterback Tajh Boyd runs a Tigers offense which averages 40.2 PPG and has NFL-quality receivers like explosive Sammy Watkins to generate big plays. Ohio State scores even more points at 46.3 PPG, which is why this should be a high-scoring matchup. The schools have met only once before in the 1978 Gator Bowl. It’ll also be the first time Clemson has played a Big 10 team since 1990. GAME TRENDS • OHIO ST is 22-8-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per play(CS) • CLEMSON is 1-4-1 ATS(CS) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS) • CLEMSON is 8-3 OVER(L3Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 263 CLEMSON 264 OHIO ST

Actual 67 -3




Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 27.1 39.3 OST

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN These teams meet for the first time in the Orange Bowl at SunLife Stadium. Urban Meyer was 7-1 SU in bowls at Utah and Florida in 2003-10, including two BCS titles. The Tigers are 5-6 SU in bowls since 2001, and 2-2 SU under Dabo Swinney since 2009. They were blown out by West Virginia (7033) in the 2011 Orange Bowl. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


January 3, 2014 - (263) CLEMSON vs. (264) OHIO ST (-3) Clemson Ohio St* Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St

75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



Clemson

Ohio St

Ohio St

BEST BET VI Consensus says…for whatever reason, the Big Ten just fares better in BCS bowl games not played in Pasadena. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that they don’t match up well with Pac 12 teams. Although Michigan State is playing in the Rose Bowl, I still feel that Ohio State is the league’s best team and will be carry the flag for the conference in Miami. The Buckeyes boast the nation’s #1 rushing attack, and the combination of Braxton Miller & Carlos Hyde will be very difficult for Clemson to contain. They scored 34+ points in every game but the finale versus Michigan State, and the Tigers are nowhere near as physical on defense. Ohio State controls the game up front and wins by double digits.



COMPASS BOWL

Football Weekly

COMPASS BOWL

(265) HOUSTON [SU:8-4 | ATS:10-2] VS (266) VANDERBILT (-3 | 54) [SU:8-4 | ATS:6-6] JANUARY 4, 2014 1:00 PM on ESPN - LEGION FIELD (BIRMINGHAM, AL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD HOUSTON 33.9 22 34-138 [4.1] 39-23-284 [7.3] 12.4 20.2 23 41-144 [3.5] 39-24-276 [7.0] 20.8 +25 +13.7 VANDERBILT 29.2 19 38-133 [3.5] 30-20-234 [7.9] 12.6 24.7 21 36-148 [4.1] 33-21-204 [6.1] 14.3 +7 +4.5

Of the lesser known bowls to be played to begin 2014, this is one of the most fascinating with two programs on the rise. This is the golden age of Vanderbilt football, coming off consecutive 8-4 regular seasons and playing in their third bowl game in a row. (They had played in four total previously) head coach James Franklin is proving you can win at Vandy and by setting the bar higher for his recruits and bringing much better talent than probably at any time in school history. The Commodores defense is legit (19th in total defense) and they manufactured 26 takeaways. The offense is balanced and productive. Houston went from 5-7 to 8-4 (10-2 ATS), facing better competition in the new AAC and all four defeats were by a touchdown or less, despite playing freshman quarterback John O’Korn. Big plays will factor directly into the outcome in Birmingham. GAME TRENDS • HOUSTON is 14-5 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS) • VANDERBILT is 6-14-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7 points per game(CS) • VANDERBILT is 11-19-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per point(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 265 HOUSTON 266 VANDERBILT

Actual 54 -3


Effective Strg Proj Edge? 32.6 HOU 24.1

Simulation Proj Edge? 28.4 HOU 24.5


HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN There is no history between these BBVA Compass Bowl opponents. The Cougars are 2-5 SU in bowls since 2003, with both wins coming under now-departed Kevin Sumlin. This will be Tony Levine’s bowl debut. The Commodores have two Music City Bowl wins and a Liberty Bowl loss on their resume since 2008. James Franklin is 1-1 SU in bowls. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


January 4, 2014 - (265) HOUSTON vs. (266) VANDERBILT (-3) Houston* Houston Vanderbilt* Houston Houston

75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



Houston

Houston

Houston

BEST BET VI Paul says…Head coach James Franklin has done pretty much the impossible, convert Vanderbilt into a winning program in three short years. Franklin set the level of expectations high for his players and recruited athletes with speed never seen in at the Harvard of the South. While I was genuinely impressed with Houston in seeing them play four times, this is still a young football team who at this time next year could well be AAC champions. I like their speed but they are undersized and facing a SEC team with matching speed, but more quickness and strength will be too much to overcome, like all their last season losses. Look for Vandy to be dandy winning in the fourth quarter by seven.


Football Weekly

(267) ARKANSAS ST [SU:7-5 | ATS:7-5] VS (268) BALL ST (-9 | 63.5) [SU:10-2 | ATS:8-4] JANUARY 5, 2014 9:00 PM on ESPN - LADD-PEEBLES STADIUM (MOBILE, AL)[NEUT] Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF ARKANSAS ST 29.7 21 45-207 [4.6] 28-20-206 [7.3] 13.9 26.7 20 38-184 [4.8] 32-18-234 [7.2] 15.7 +6 +3.0 BALL ST 40.1 25 34-153 [4.5] 39-25-333 [8.6] 12.1 24.8 22 41-195 [4.7] 34-21-226 [6.7] 17.0 +12 +15.3

GODADY BOWL

GODADDY BOWL

The last bowl conflict before the national championship is a great contrast in styles. Ball State prefers taking to the air with regularity, and Arkansas State showing a preference to pound the football on the ground. The Cardinals led the Mid-American Conference in passing and ranked ninth in the nation with an average of 333.3 yards per game. Ball State also ranked 13th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 40.1 points per game. Arkansas State is a three-time Sun Belt champion (two outright and co-champs in 2013) and moves the ball on the ground through a variety of personnel and approaches and averaged 205 rushing yards per game. Sophomore RB Michael Gordon is the first option for the Red Wolves, with his elusive style averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Ball State wants to prove their 10-2 record was no fluke, while Arkansas State is out to show they were better than 7-5. GAME TRENDS • BALL ST is 24-13 ATS(L3Y) - All Games • BALL ST is 12-5 ATS(L2Y) - As favorite • ARKANSAS ST is 2-11 ATS(S2000) - Against big play passing teams averaging more than 8.3 yards per attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 267 ARKANSAS ST 268 BALL ST

Actual 63.5 -9



Simulation Proj Edge? 28.4 AST 32.4


HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN This GoDaddy Bowl marks the first meeting of these teams. This is the Red Wolves’ third consecutive trip to Mobile. They beat Kent State 17-13 last year, when interim coach John Thompson replaced departed Gus Malzahn. The Cardinals are winless in six bowl appearances, including 0-3 since 2007. They lost 38-17 to Central Florida in last year’s Beef O’Brady’s Bowl. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


January 5, 2014 - (267) ARKANSAS ST vs. (268) BALL ST (-9) Arkansas Ball St Ball St Ball St Ball St St

75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



Arkansas St

Ball St

Ball St

BEST BET VI Jason says…There have been 14 games in the bowl series played in Mobile, AL, and most often they are blowouts, with eight of the last 11 being decided by 14 points or more. So I ask myself, in a game that typically produces blowouts, which of these is more likely to be on the winning side? Well, with a pointspread of 9-points, I think oddsmakers are laying it out for us. Ball State has been a solid, underrated team all season long, averaging 40.1 points per game and winning eight times by 18 points or more. The Cardinals boast an under radar explosive offense and if you haven’t heard of Keith Wenning (QB) and Jahwan Edwards (RB) before this game, you will certainly know them after. Ball State rolls.



BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Football Weekly

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

(269) AUBURN [SU:12-1 | ATS:11-2] VS (270) FLORIDA ST (-9 | 67) [SU:13-0 | ATS:11-2] JANUARY 6, 2014 8:30 PM on ESPN - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF AUBURN 40.2 24 52-336 [6.5] 20-12-170 [8.5] 12.6 24.0 21 36-164 [4.6] 35-20-259 [7.4] 17.6 0 +16.2 FLORIDA ST 53.0 26 36-209 [5.7] 31-21-322 [10.3] 10.0 10.7 16 37-117 [3.2] 31-16-152 [4.9] 25.1 +17 +42.3

This is a classic matchup of the best team versus the hottest team in the country. Auburn’s rushing attack is the best in the country at 335.8 yards a game, led by quarterback Nick Marshall and coach Gus Malzahn’s offense might be the most copied across the country looking ahead to 2014. The Tigers defense ranks only 88th nationally in total defense in allowing 423.5 yards per game, but its offense has been so lethal, they just have to make a 10 important stops a game. After losing to Florida State 45-7, Duke coach David Cutcliffe said the Seminoles have the most impressive collection of talent he could ever remember. Florida State’s margin of victory is a yesteryear 42.3 PPG and QB Jameis Winston is a next level talent. The SEC has won this contest seven straight years, but this is the most complete team they will have faced. GAME TRENDS • AUBURN is 20-12 ATS(L5Y) - Against good teams with 70%+ winning pct(CS) • FLORIDA ST is 7-17 ATS(S2000) - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.3 yards per play(CS) • FLORIDA ST is 14-4 UNDER(S2000) - VS SEC STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s Teams 269 AUBURN 270 FLORIDA ST

Actual 67 -9.5


Effective Strg Proj Edge? 23.0 41.9 FST

Simulation Proj Edge? 26.8 AUB 31.1 UNDER

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 24.8 43.8 FST

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN There’s no recent history between these BCS Championship game opponents, but they met 17 times from 1954-1990, with Auburn holding a 13-4 SU advantage. In their only previous bowl meeting, FSU won 13-7 in the 1989 Sugar Bowl. Jimbo Fisher is 3-0 SU in bowl games. Gus Malzahn is 21-4 SU in two seasons, but will be making his bowl debut. VI PICKS

VI Jim

75-92 (45%) 25-26 (49%)*

VI Jason

84-83 (50%) 18-31 (37%)*

VI Paul

83-84 (50%) 24-25 (49%)*

Power Ratings

92-75 (55%)


75-92 (45%)

85-82 (51%)



Monday, January 6, 2014 - (269) AUBURN vs. (270) FLORIDA ST (-9.5) Auburn

Florida St*

Auburn

Auburn

Florida St

Auburn

Florida St

Auburn

BEST BET VI Consensus says…The lone blemish on the SEC’s BCS title game ledger recently came when LSU lost to Alabama. Since both teams were representing the league, naturally one had to lose. As the SEC looks to continue its reign atop college football, the Auburn Tigers are motivated by a huge pointspread. Don’t expect the Tigers to be intimidated, as they have faced some of the best and have beaten them. In my opinion, had there been no season long rankings, this pointspread wouldn’t be nearly as high, as Auburn is playing its best football NOW, not September when they lost their one game at LSU. No knock on anything about Florida State, as the Seminoles were dominant this season, but why fade what appears to be a team of destiny from the country’s best conference?


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