Cloud Computers and the Autonomous Connected Car August 28, 2013 Public Policy Institute of California Bechtel conference Center
Roger D. Melen Toyota ITC, 465 Bernardo Avenue Mountain View California
[email protected]
Experimental Lexus
What is an Autonomous Car?
New Yorker, July 8&15, 2013, pg. 67
• The exact definition of autonomous will vary greatly with each specific new car design. • Generally means a car capable of providing significant automated driving assistance using: - advanced roadway imaging sensors for detecting other vehicles, bicyclists and pedestrians - wireless vehicle communications to the cloud - networks of power intelligent computers - new visual, speech, and tactile electromechanical human interfaces
New Connected Automation Technology Impact: New Freedom in Driving • • • • •
Cooperative Driving Will be Achieved With The Cooperative Sharing of Driving Burden Vehicle Recommendations and Controls Will Improve Driver Performance Driver Group Synchronization Will Enable New Efficiencies Transportation Infrastructure Coordination Will Maximize Flow and Reduce Traffic & Waste Driver Monitoring Will Improve Vehicle Performance and Experiences
CLOUD
Long Range Research Requires Creative Evaluation Methods
Brilliant
New (Is It Crazy?)
Sweet Spot Actually Crazy
Lone effort
Irrelevant
Accretive
Research synergy
Research Velocity (A Hot Trends? New Conferences, Papers?) >$1B Impact Company Strategy (Why Toyota ?)
Roger Melen’s Research Metric
Hajime Mitarai, prior president of Canon, stated: "We should do something when people say it is crazy. If people say something is ‘good,' it means someone else is already doing it.“ (1991)
The Research Challenges are Daunting and Will Require Time To Resolve
Latency Frequency Bands Roadway Occlusions GPS Accuracy Wireless
V2V technology
Bandwidth LIDAR weather conditions
Future Autonomous Connected Vehicle
Blindness and Uncertainty is Common in The Establishing The Significance of Emerging Intermediate Research Data
Autonomous Safety Augmentation
Driver Cognitive State Internet
Algorithms
Communication Protocol & Modulation Methods Fiducial Reference Position Markers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant
Cloud Data Networks Will Provide Many Future Human Freedoms
Cloud A Cloud Brain Can Best Choose the most important 50 GB of Data For Each Daily Vehicle Transfer on an Individualized Basis Based Upon User Preference Data and Internet Wisdom
Supplemental LTE may provide rapid and important access
WIFI $/GB may be 1000X cheaper than LTE
“MicroCloud” TB Cache
Vehicle Work & Home Parking of 20 hours/day Provides Large Transfer Super WIFI Home and Time Work Provisioning Up to 50 GB/day Up to 50 GB/day
Cache Contains “Most of The Needed Internet” Note: 50GB/day bidirectional requires a dedicated > 12mbps data channel 20x7
The Emerging Future New Computer-Centric Cars Will Have More Electronic Components in their Bill of Materials
Kishi, Norimasa “Electronics in Automotive Applications” May 16-19, 2010 ,Loews Lake Las Vegas Resort , The ConFab
Driver Observation Limitations Digital Design Efforts may be modified by driver false beliefs which have been created from memories and conclusions generated entirely within our brains Relevant Human Psychological Effects Described in the Published Academic Literature Frailty Effect
Researcher
Experimental Effect
Conclusion
1.
Barnum Effect
Forer, 1940
Personality descriptions do not need to be accurate in order to seem accurate
brains have a tendency to perceive meaning in random input
2.
Ventriloquist After Effect
Canon, 1970 Wozny and Shams, 2011
Perception of direction of sounds may be rapidly altered by visual clues and prior experiences
Perception of direction can be inaccurate band based upon listener thoughts.
3.
Out of Body Effect
Matthew Botvinick and Jonathan Cohen
A subject thinks a rubber hand must be theirs based on image data and constructs a sense of self that is consistent with this idea.
brain constantly using information from your senses to come up with a best guess - even if it does mean you think you are floating above your body
4.
False Agency Formation False Memories
Justin Barrett at the University of Oxford
False images and sensations are create when frightened
a stimulus such as a creaking floorboard is caused by some hidden and possibly dangerous entity - is so important for survival that the part of the brain responsible for detecting it can crease false illusions
5.
Strong Beliefs Can Create Erroneous Conclusions
Leon Festinger University of Minnesota
Dorothy Martin, prophesied that there would be a great flood on 21 December and that a flying saucer would rescue her and her followers just before disaster occurred.
members concluded that they must have averted the cataclysm by spreading the word of the danger. People find it uncomfortable to hold two conflicting beliefs in their head at the same time, and will perform attempt to reconcile the two (cognitive dissonance)
6.
Suggestion of Not thinking
Dan Wegner Harvard University
eye-tracking experiments have revealed that telling footballers to avoid aiming a penalty into a particular part of the goal resulted in them not being able to keep their eyes off it.
asking people not to think of something causes them to do the exact opposite
7.
Major Eyewitness Errors in Observation
S. J. Davey
small groups gathered around a table and witnessed various "supernatural" appearing illusions such as chalk messages magically appearing on slates and spirits materializing in front of their eyes. Davey asked his guests to send him a written account of their evening, and was stunned to discover that people frequently misremembered what had happened. Many recalled events in the wrong order, and some even omitted the important ones altogether.
The act of perception is cognitively demanding, so your eyes and brain focus a fairly small spotlight of attention on what appears to be the most important thing at that moment. In addition, it creates the illusion that you are constantly seeing far more than this small area, which fools observer into believing that the observations are accurate observer while they are not.
8.
Automatic Writing
Ouija boards to apparently spell out messages
unconscious part of the brain makes the decision to act and sends the right messages to the appropriate muscles - but fails to send the signals responsible for creating the conscious experience of you making the decision.
Dan Wegner Harvard
1. Richard Wiseman , Paranormality: Why we see what isn't there , Macmillan, University of Hertfordshire, UK. 2. David R. Wozny and Ladan Shams, Recalibration of Auditory Space following Milliseconds of Cross-Modal Discrepancy, The Journal of Neuroscience, March 23, 2011 • 31(12):4607– 4612
The Future Autonomous Car Will Need to Ultimately Support All Kinds Future Driving Experiences Cloud Downtown Urban
Rural Dirt Roads
Big Data
Rural Pave Roads
Urban Arterial Suburban
Rural Highway
A cloud based data system is required that establishes networking standards and serves the safety, utility & comfort needs of future drivers and passengers using autonomous systems.
Safety is A Major Long Term Concern of the Entire Auto Industry Safety concerns in the design of human machine interfaces will result in the future “Automotive Computer Screens” being different than for Laptops and the other consumer computer screens
Ambitious Future Safety Goals
Kishi, Norimasa “Electronics in Automotive Applications” May 16-19, 2010 ,Loews Lake Las Vegas Resort , The ConFab
The Long 15-25 Year Product Lifetime Of Vehicle Computers Results in Unique Design Upgradability And Durability Requirements http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/safety_presen/safety/14.html
There are many carefully designed automotive technologies and systems associated with the Integrated Safety Management Concept which provide Active Safety, Pre-crash Safety, & Rescue
http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/safety_technology_quality/safety_technology/safety_philosophy/
Not Just For Safety Future Lifestyle Aware Vehicles Will Support Unique Digital Fun Future fun may involve recreational pursuits enriched by the presence of novel vehicle computer applications incorporating data from your computer usage. Recreation
Special Issue for Vehicle
Digital Computer Impact
Network Impact
Horse Riding
Pulling Trailers
Map Links
Google maps
Camping
Carrying gear
Extreme Weather
Satellite Updates
Canoeing
Roof Racks
Laptop data links, Rental locations, emergency contact, forest ranger sites.
Tripadvisor.com, Lonelyplanet.com, YahooTravel
Wind Sailing
Small trailer
Tides, Asian storms, surf watch, wave buoy data
Context aware information delivery
Pet shows
Large open area, kennels
Help with finding pet friendly locations
www.loveyourpetexpo.com
Bicycling
hitch racks
Elevation routes, vehicle group ware communications
Bike ride planning and ride sharing
Boating
Boat Trailers
Parks, boat launch area information, coast guard reports.
www.discoverboating.com
Off Roading
High Clearance
Nature & off road trails, elevations
Mapmyride.com
Car Camping
Shelter
Capsite Vacancy information, food store, drugstore and toilet location data
www.squidoo.com/carcamping
Beachside holidays
Hauling gear, food, water, suntan lotion, weather, fog, beach occupancy
Help in locating beach fun
www.daytrippen.com
Surfing
Carrying surfboard
Tides, Asian storms, surf watch, wave bouy data
www.surfline.com
Dirt Bikes
Small trailer, bike hauling
Finding maps and locations to ride
www.just-add-dirt.com
Hunting
Carrying gear, off road driving, shelter
Find hunting times and rules
www.huntinghotspots.com
Fishing
Pulling boats
Finding the good fishing spots and times.
www.takemefishing.org
Football//Basketball/Tennis
Hauling Teams & Gear, tailgating party platform
Map Links/Traffic
www.tailgating.com
Expectations by Future Car Owners Of Digital Technology
Future Car Owners May Seek Many Functional and Emotional Attributes From Using their Connected Automotive Computers
Wisdom
Happiness
Transportation
Driver Strategies
Effective Plans
Smart Behavior
Safe Efficient Travel
Friends
y
Joy
Behavior Modification Fun
Tactics
Pre-collision Assistance
Social Networks Recommendations
POI Assistance
Technology
Distraction Avoidance
Communications
Money Saving Help
Navigation Directions
Multi-Tasking Awareness
Refueling Assistance
Thoughts using the Wireless Network
Fashion Shopping Recommendations Individual Preference Assistance
Professional Networks
Collision Avoidance Lane Warning
Music and Book Selection
Feelings using the Wireless Network
Cruise Control
Motion using the Wireless Network
Daily Vehicle Network Journeys Involves Lots of data LTE Data To Cellular Transfers Infotainment News, Weather, Music, Shopping
Journey Support Refueling Notifications
DSRC Vehicle to Vehicle Collision Avoidance Transfers
Last Mile Search
Navigation Data Beginning & Embarkation PHEV Vehicle Charging Data Over Power Line
End & Disembarkation
Provisioning
Planning
Super WIFI Data To Infrastructure Transfers
Vehicle Context Data & Social Network Data Synchronization
Access to Quality and Fresh Big Data At All Times is a Major Common Requirement of Many Future Car Systems Autonomous
Autonomous
Environment & Roadway Sensors
Technologies
Realtime Safety Sensors
Technologies
Technologies
Technologies
Network Data & Vehicle Social sensors
2010 to 2020: This is the Decade of the Connected Car
•
Future vehicle systems will benefit from very large scale data exchange with cloud based computer services. - Navigation map updates - Maps with Current Safety POIs such Black Ice and Local Fog - Accurate Route Maps in Construction Areas - Cooperative V2V Safety - Local vehicles warn others of changing lanes and making turns - Infotainment and news - Environment sensing probe cars
•
The bandwidth of existing wireless network communications such as LTE & DSRC are be too small or too expensive to satisfy all needs which in the future may exceed 10 GB/day/vehicle. - Daily WIFI transfers with home internet connected networks may play a significant role in achieving high network capacity.
•
Future wireless networks will be enhancing vehicle safety, smoother traffic flow and fun driving
Toyota InfoTechnology Center in Mountain View, California is deeply engaged in research and technologies of the future connected car
Safety Technology Difficulty
The Three Future Eras of Autonomous Car Driving Advance Will Each Increase Data Requirements Fully Autonomous Pie in the Sky
SemiAutonomous, Driver In Charge
Autonomy Assist Cooperative Driving
Hybrid Digital Driving Assist
Traffic Jam Assist Cruise Control Systems Stability Control Systems Lane Change Systems “Hands & Brain” on the wheel
“Hands & Brain” briefly off the wheel
Driving Autonomy Totally Driverless
Driver’s Perceptions and Trust of Autonomous Assisted Driving Benefits Will Be Key To Perceived Value and Adoption
Great Early Benefits In Safety May Occur For The Elderly and Impaired
“Hands & Brain” on the wheel
“Hands & Brain” briefly off the wheel
Totally Driverless
Ease of Driving
Data Searching, Texting, Map Checking
Improved Safety & Lower insurance, cost
Improved Safety and Traffic Flow, Faster Journeys & Faster Driving
Checking Facebook Page
No need for driving skills to use, Fewer Traffic Police, Fewer Traffic Accidents
Compensation for Driver Aging Limitations
Internet Shopping
Improved Passenger Relaxation
Greater Joy of Driving
Playing videogames?
Playing videogames
Faster Journeys & Faster Driving
Driver Sleeping in Car?
Driver Sleeping in Car
Some Market Researchers Are Very Optimistic About Major Deployments of Autonomous Vehicles In The Near Future
Activities that increase the death risk by roughly one micromort, and their associated cause of death: • Smoking 1.4 cigarettes (cancer, heart disease)[5][unreliable source?] • Drinking 0.5 liter of wine (cirrhosis of the liver)[5] • Spending 1 hour in a coal mine (black lung disease)[5] • Spending 3 hours in a coal mine (accident)[5] • Living 2 days in New York or Boston in 1979 (air pollution)[5] • Living 2 months with a smoker (cancer, heart disease)[5] • Drinking Miami water for 1 year (cancer from chloroform)[5] • Eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks (cancer from benzopyrene)[5] • Eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter (liver cancer from Aflatoxin B)[5] • Eating 1000 bananas, (cancer from radioactive 1 kBED of Potassium-40)[citation needed] • Travelling 6 minutes by canoe (accident)[5] • Travelling 6 miles by motorbike (accident)[6] • Travelling 17 miles by walking (accident)[7] • Travelling 10 miles[5] (or 20 miles[7]) by bicycle (accident) • Travelling 230 miles (370 km) by car (accident)[6] (or 250 miles[7]) • Travelling 6000 miles (9656 km) by train (accident)[6] • Flying 1000 miles (1609 km) by jet (accident)[5] Here's the original source, proposed by Ron Howard, at Stanford:
^ Howard, R. A. (1980). J. Richard, C. Schwing, Walter A. Albers, ed. "On making life and death decisions". Societal Risk Assessment: How Safe Is Safe Enough? General Motors Research Laboratories. New York: Plenum Press. ISBN 0306405547.
Big Data Communicated Through New High Capacity Networks and Coordinated With V2V/R Systems Will Be Ubiquitous by 2020 and Will Enable Many New Vehicle Services
• Safe, social, trusted, fun, efficient, and distractionfree driving and transportation advances will emerge from the new technologies and new levels of human driving freedoms will be experienced. • Electronic system speed, robustness, sensitivity, accuracy and cost will continue to advance and yet still limit performance well beyond 2020. • The future autonomous car will evolve in capability over time through several future generations of system advances.
The End
