Detailed Program

Monday 9th September P1 (plenary) Room Rogers Object oriented data analysis Steve Marron A1 (invited) Room A Biological network modelling Organizer: Ernst Wit Common fragile sites, microsatellites and genome dynamics: old and new statistics for human genomic data Francesca Chiaromonte Inferring gene networks from microarray with graphical models Antonino Abbruzzo, Angelo Marcello Mineo Discovery of protein binding patterns by joint modelling of ChIP-seq data Veronica Vinciotti A2 (invited) Room B Complex problems in DNA mixtures Organizer: Julia Mortera Sensitivity of inferences in forensic genetics to assumptions about founding genes Peter Green Analysis of DNA Mixtures with Artefacts Therese Graversen Evaluating Kinship Identification Systems Federico Ricciardi, Fabio Corradi How to assess the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: a Bayesian approach Silvia Bozza, Franco Taroni, Alex Biedermann A3 (contributed) Room C General Models & Methods I Chair: Andrea Pastore An interpretable version of Kernel PCA and its application to large scale data analysis Victor Muñiz, Johan Van Horebeek, Rogelio Ramos Rare events probability estimation of sums of heavy-tailed random variables: an alternative approach Serena Arima, Giovanni Petris, Luca Tardella

Modelling the occurrence of strong earthquakes through the convolution of two stochastic processes: a multi-rupture model driven by a selfcorrecting model Renata Rotondi, Elisa Varini Rounding non-integer weights in Bootstrapping non-iid samples: actual problem or harmless practice? Federico Andreis, Fulvia Mecatti B1 (invited) Room A Covariance matrices as data objects Organizer: John Aston Testing the equality of covariance operators in functional samples Stefan Fremdt, Lajos Horváth, Piotr Kokoszka, Josef G. Steinebach Statistical analysis of phonetic covariance structure in philological studies Davide Pigoli Non-euclidean analysis for covariance matrix data with application to diffusion tensor images Diwei Zhou, Ian Dryden, Alexey Koloydenko, Royal Holloway B2 (invited) Room B Methods and models for monitoring and evaluation of healthcare systems Organizer: Marco Bonetti Sanitary risk: a new approach to the modeling of claims due to medical malpractice Pasquale Cirillo, Marco Bonetti Statistical tools for detecting and visualizing outliers in provider profiling: an effective decisional support to healthcare regulation Anna Maria Paganoni, Francesca Ieva A change in estimate procedure for multiple level exposure and binary outcomes: a backward approach Danilo Fusco, Paola Colais, Mirko Di Martino Vaccination decisions, private and public information, and the future of immunization programmes Piero Manfredi, Alberto d'Onofrio, Piero Poletti B3 (contributed) Room C Genomics Chair: Francesca Chiaromonte Optimization of PRIM under normality Daniel Diaz, J. Sunil Rao, Jean-Eudes Dazard

Bayesian hierarchical model for genetic association with multiple correlated phenotypes Alex Lewin, Habib Saadi, Leonardo Bottolo, Sylvia Richardson Identification of variants associated with risk for familial breast cancer using whole exome sequencing Matteo Cereda, Paolo Peterlongo, Paolo Radice, Monica Barile, Bernardo Bonanni, Francesca Ciccarelli Detection of copy number variations from targeted re-sequencing data Shruti Sinha, Fabio Iannelli, Agnese Collino, Gioacchino Natoli, Serena Ghisletti, Francesca Ciccarelli

Tuesday 10th Semptember C1 (contributed) Room A Epidemiology Chair: Alessandra Guglielmi

Analysis of complex, routinely-obtained longitudinal data from medical general practice records : a case study on the progression of chronic kidney disease Zalihe Yarkiner, Gordon Hunter, Rosie O'Neil, Simon de Lusignan

Objective bayesian comparison of constrained analysis of variance models Guido Consonni, Roberta Paroli Outbreak conditions for waterborne disease epidemics: data and models Lorenzo Mari, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Righetto, Renato Casagrandi, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, Andrea Rinaldo, Marino Gatto Asymptotic statistical properties of a response adaptive design based on a two colours urn model Andrea Ghiglietti, Anna Maria Paganoni C2 (contributed) Room B Spatial Statistics I Chair: Lorenzo Fattorini Spatial statistics for covariance matrices Davide Pigoli, Piercesare Secchi Geostatistical analysis of spatially dependent functional data: Universal Kriging in a Hilbert space Alessandra Menafoglio, Piercesare Secchi

Generalized Spatial Hidden Markov Models and Remote Sensing Luigi Spezia Iterative estimation of the Heteroskedastic Functional Regression Model with application to atmospheric data Rosaria Ignaccolo, Alessandro Fassò C3 (contributed) Room C General Models & Methods I Chair: Fulvia Mecatti Modeling price dynamics in price comparison website Takayuki Mizuno, Tsutomu Watanabe, Makoto Nirei Model-based detection of multiple clusterings Andrea Pastore, Stefano F. Tonellato Prediction based on composite likelihood Paolo Vidoni On Stationary Markovian models: a Poisson-driven approach Consuelo Nava, Ramsés H.Mena, Igor Prünster P2 (plenary) Room Rogers Information Theory and Bayesian Reliability Analysis: advances and computational issues Refik Soyer D1 (invited) Room A Big Data Organizer: Bruno Scarpa Simple statistical ideas behind efficient sentiment analysis over big data Stefano Iacus The future of big data and social mining for science and policy Dino Pedreschi Discovering spatiotemporal patterns of urban life from mobile data: an exploration through hierarchical independent component analysis Simone Vantini, Piercesare Secchi, Paolo Zanini D2 (invited) Room B Modeling spatial and temporal dependence of extremes Organizer: Francesco Pauli Some issues in estimation of extremes in the analysis of network data Domenico De Stefano The extremal index for GARCH(p,q) processes with symmetric innovations Fabrizio Laurini, Jonathan Tawn

Graphical structures in extreme multivariate events Yiannis Papastathopoulos, Jonathan A. Tawn D3 (contributed) Room C Healthcare Management Chair: Anna Maria Paganoni Multi-state modeling of the hospitalization process of patients affected by Chronic Heart Failure Francesca Ieva, Christopher Jackson, Linda D. Sharples Approximate Bayesian inference for discretely observed continuous-time multistate models Andrea Tancredi Modelling elderly patients stay in hospital using Coxian phase-type distributions with covariates Adele Marshall, Mariangela Zenga, Hannah Mitchell Using adminstrative databases to study patients hospitalized for heart failure Cristina Mazzali, Francesca Ieva, Mauro Maistrello, Pietro Barbieri E1 (invited) Room A Recent advances in Bayesian modelling for causal inference Organizer: Fabrizia Mealli Identification of principal causal effects using secondary outcomes Barbara Pacini, Fabrizia Mealli, Elena Stanghellini Bayesian inference for fuzzy regression discontinuity designs Alessandra Mattei, Fan Li, Fabrizia Mealli Bayesian inference for causal effects with noncompliance and nonignorable missing data Andrea Mercatanti Assessing the impact of financial aids to firms: causal inference in the presence of interference Bruno Arpino, Alessandra Mattei E2 (contributed) Room B Spatial Statistics II Chair: Luigi Ippoliti On a novel class of models for spatial data analysis Laura Sangalli Spatial regression with PDE penalization: an application to blood velocity field estimation Laura Azzimonti, Laura Sangalli, Piercesare Secchi

A functional data analysis approach to modeling multiple patient data over non planar domains Bree Ettinger, Simona Perotto, Laura Sangalli Geodesic gaussian process for the reconstruction of micro-pins surfaces Luca Pagani, Bianca Maria Colosimo, Quirico Semeraro, Enrique del Castillo E3 (contributed) Room C Multilevel Models Chair: Sonia Petrone A marginalized multilevel model for bivariate longitudinal binary data Gul Inan, Ozlem Ilk Joint modeling of multiple mixed-type outcomes using Bayesian semiparametrics: an application to Acute Myocardial Infarction patients Alessandra Guglielmi, Francesca Ieva, Anna Maria Paganoni, Elena Prandoni Bayesian Non parametric identification of Pre-versus-Post treatment biomarker effects on Progression free survival Rebecca Graziani, Michele Guindani, Paula Mathew, Peter Thall A hierarchical Bayesian model for house effects in pre-electoral polls Francesco Pauli, Domenico De Stefano, Nicola Torelli

Wednesday 11th Semptember F1 (invited) Room A Shape analysis Organizer: Ian Dryden An investigation of projective shape space John Kent (Semi-)intrinsic statistical analysis on non-euclidean spaces Stephan Huckemann Shape inference based on multivariate normal Matrix distributions Alfred Kume, Ian Dryden Offset normal shape distributions for dynamic shapes Luigi Ippoliti, Lara Fontanella, Alfred Kume F2 (contributed) Room B Bayesian Models Chair: Nicola Torelli Default bayesian inference for the consensus mean in inter-laboratory studies Laura Ventura, Walter Racugno

Stick-breaking representations of 1/2-stable Poisson-Kingman models Stefano Favaro, Maria Lomeli, Bernardo Nipoti, Yee Whye Teh Cluster analysis of curved-shaped data with species-sampling mixture models Raffaele Argiento, Andrea Cremaschi, Alessandra Guglielmi Objective Bayesian Model Discrimination in Follow-up Design Guido Consonni, Laura Deldossi F3 (contributed) Room C Econometrics Chair: Francesco Lisi A multivariate volatility vine copula model Yarema Okhrin Spectral Density of Multivariate ARMA Models with Change in Regime Maddalena Cavicchioli, Monica Billio A new weighted forward search approach for the analysis of financial time series Luigi Grossi, Lisa Crosato A new method for detecting non-linear causality in time series Amir Reza Alizad-Rahvar, Masoud Ardakani, Ivor Cribben P3 (plenary) Room Rogersa Lasso for variable screening in high dimensions: preselection, error-invariables, stability Arnoldo Frigessi G1 (invited) Room A Latent Markov models Organizer: Francesco Bartolucci Adaptive quadrature for likelihood inference in dynamic latent variable models Silvia Cagnone, Francesco Bartolucci Latent Markov models with dropout based on event-history Alessio Farcomeni, Francesco Bartolucci Nonparametric hidden Markov models Roland Langrock, Thomas Kneib, Alexander Sohn G2 (contributed) Room B Functional Data Analysis Chair: Piercesare Secchi Inference for functional data: the interval-wise control of the family-wise error rate Alessia Pini, Simone Vantini

Modelling varved lake sediment to detect past climate changes using functional data analysis Per Arnqvist, Sara Sjöstedt de Luna A framework for functional dynamic linear models Giovanni Petris Brain tumor shape deformation: a functional data analysis approach Elvira Romano, Jorge Mateu, Iulian Vlad G3 (contributed) Room C Process Monitoring Chair: Laura Sangalli Measuring downsize reputational risk in the oil and gas industry Marika Arena, Antonio Conte, Simone Vantini Time series analysis of commodities price Davide Manca Analysis of demand and supply curves in the Italian natural gas market through functional time series. Antonio Canale, Simone Vantini Statistical process monitoring of Complex Shapes via Gaussian Process modeling Paolo Cicorella, Bianca Maria Colosimo P4 (plenary) Room Rogersa Approximate Bayesian procedures for copula estimation Brunero Liseo

Poster Room Spazio Nardi Noncentral chi estimation in Diffusion Tensor Imaging Stefano Baraldo, Aymeric Stamm

Conscientious and sustained handling of energy and material resources at semiconductor reliability testing by applying a combination of optimal DOEs and reliable lifetime modeling Olivia Bluder, Kathrin Plankensteiner, Anja Zernig An approximate maximum likelihood interpretation of partial least squares (PLS) Monique Borg Inguanez, John T. Kent Inference in Thurstonian models for paired comparison data Manuela Cattelan

Bayesian nonparametric estimation of species diversity under PitmanYor process priors Annalisa Cerquetti, Stephan Poppe Clustering ChIP-Seq data using peak shape Marzia A. Cremona, Laura Riva, Laura Sangalli, Piercesare Secchi, Simone Vantini An application of kriging to Italian mortality rates Ivan Luciano Danesi, Massimiliano Kaucic, Nicola Torelli OBsMD: an R-package for Objective Bayesian Model Discrimination in Follow-up Design Laura Deldossi, Marta Nai Ruscone Functional Data Analysis and Classification for Profile Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis in Waterjet Machining Processes Marco Grasso, Nicla Frigerio, Alessandra Menafoglio, Piercesare Secchi, Bianca Maria Colosimo

Approximate Bayesian computation and applications Clara I. Grazian The control of uncertainty over objectives in architectural design Claudio Martani, Cinzia Talamo, Giancarlo Paganin Advances in Ensemble Learning Schemes: The Forward Search Approach Sabina Mazza A Bayesian approach for modeling patient's demand and hidden health status: an application to Home Care Inad Nawajah, Raffaele Argiento, Alessandra Guglielmi, Ettore Lanzarone Markov Switching GARCH models for Bayesian Hedging on Energy Futures Markets Anthony Osuntuyi, Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin Undirected Gaussian Graphical Models for VAR parameters reduction: EU indexes portfolio case Andrea Pierini Advances in approximate Bayesian computation with modified pseudolikelihood roots Erlis Ruli, Laura Ventura Different methods for handling longitudinal binary outcome subject to potentially random dropout Ali Satty, Henry Mwambi, Geert Molenberghs Improving multivariate measurement systems assessment Michele Scagliarini

Classification of movement patterns - a follow-up after anterior cruciate ligament injury Lina Schelin, Konrad Abramowicz, Johan Strandberg, Eva Tengman, Charlotte Häger Estimating binary monotonic regression models and their uncertainty by incorporating kernel smoothers Oleg Sysoev Optical Identification of Subjects at High Risk for Developing Breast Cancer Paola Taroni, Giovanna Quarto, Antonio Pifferi, Francesca Ieva, Anna Maria Paganoni, Francesca Abbate, Nicola Balestreri, Simona Menna, Enrico Cassano, Rinaldo Cubeddu Prediction of cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis: a challenging healthcare and machine learning problem Jasmine Ion Titapiccolo, Manuela Ferrario, Carlo Barbieri, Flavio Mari, Emanuele Gatti, Sergio Cerutti, Maria Gabriella Signorini Generalized models for spatial regression with differential penalization Matthieu Wilhelm, Laura Maria Sangalli

Thursday, 12th Semptember BarCamp Agorà Open Data and the Convergence of Statistics Ulrich Atz Statistics: pushing or pulled by technology? Antonio Canale Statistics and new technologies: challenges and new opportunities Davide Pigoli Back to the future: infinity and beyond Shubhabrata Roy Lemma Ivan Vujačić, Antonino Abbruzzo, Javier Gonzaléz, Giulia Marcon Statistics: an Important Player in the Big Data Age Diwei Zhou