Fuzzy modeling of evaluation logistic systems

32 downloads 0 Views 556KB Size Report
M. Brzeziński. 1, M. Kijek1, M. Gontarczyk2, Ł. Rykała3, J. Zelkowski1. 1. Military University of Technology, Faculty of Logistics, Institute of Logistics, Gen.


,661; SULQW  ,661 RQOLQH 







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x $–ILQDQFLDOFRQGLWLRQRIWKHFRPSDQ\ x %–VFRSHRIWKHEXVLQHVVSURILOHRIWKHFRPSDQ\ x &–FXVWRPHUVHUYLFHSDUDPHWHUV x 0–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

 WKDWWKHRXWSXWYDULDEOHVRIPRGHOV$%&DUHDWWKHVDPHWLPHWKHLQSXWYDULDEOHVIRUPRGHO07KLVDSSURDFKDOORZV WKHDQDO\VLVRIHDFKDUHDLHILQDQFLDOFRQGLWLRQFXVWRPHUVHUYLFHSDUDPHWHUVDQGVFRSHRIWKHEXVLQHVVSURILOHRIWKH FRPSDQ\ VHSDUDWHO\ 7KLV JUHDWO\ VLPSOLILHV WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKHLU LPSDFW RQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH HQWLUH V\VWHP GHFUHDVHVWKH QXPEHURIUXOHVQHFHVVDU\ IRUHDFK PRGHODQG PDNHVLWHDVLHUWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ HDFKDUHD>@  $ )LQDQFLDO FRQGLWLRQ

$ '\QDPLFV RI HPSOR\PHQW

0 (YDOXDWLRQ $ 5HYHQXH G\QDPLFV

5XOHV

$ 1HW SURILW G\QDPLFV % 6FRSH RI WKH EXVLQHVV SURILOH RI WKH FRPSDQ\

% 2QWLPH GHOLYHULHV

% 'HOLYHU\ DFFXUDF\

5XOHV

% 'HOLYHU\ FRPSOHWHQHVV

5XOHV

% 1XPEHU RI VHUYLFHV 7)/ RIIHUHG & &XVWRPHU VHUYLFH SDUDPHWHUV

& ,QGH[ RI WKH UDQJH RI SRVLWLYHO\ HYDOXDWHG VHUYLFHV & :HLJKWHG VDWLVIDFWLRQ LQGH[ & 0DUNHW SRVLWLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI DOO FOLHQWV

5XOHV

& 1HW SDUDPHWHU VFRUH & 7KH PDUNHW OHDGHU LQ WHUPV RI NH\ FXVWRPHU UDWLQJV & WKH PRVW FRPSHWLWLYH FRPSDQ\ LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI LWV ERG\ RI FOLHQWV



 )LJ)X]]\V\VWHPGLDJUDP

7KHIX]]\V\VWHPVFRQVLVWRIWKHIROORZLQJEORFNV )LJ >@ x IX]]LILFDWLRQ x UHDVRQLQJWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHUXOHEDVH x GHIX]]LILFDWLRQ  [Ѯ5

)X]]LILHU

,QWHOOLJHQFH

'HIX]]XILHU \Ѯ5

5XOHV





)LJ6LPSOLILHGIX]]\V\VWHPGLDJUDP

0RGHO$ 7REXLOGPRGHO$ ILQDQFLDOFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHFRPSDQ\ UXOHVZHUHFUHDWHG7KHPRGHOFRQVLVWHGRILQSXW YDULDEOHV )LJ  x$–G\QDPLFVRIHPSOR\PHQWGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHVHWVWUDSH]RLGDOORZDQGKLJKDVZHOODVRQHWULDQJXODU PHGLXPLQWKH>–@UDQJH x$ – UHYHQXH G\QDPLFV GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH VHWV  WUDSH]RLGDO DQG  WULDQJXODU ORZ PHGLXP KLJK LQ WKH >–@UDQJH x$–QHWSURILWG\QDPLFVGLYLGHGLQWRWZRWUDSH]RLGDOVHWVORZKLJKLQWKH>–@UDQJH 7KH RXWSXW RI WKH ILUVW PRGHO ZDV WKH ILQDQFLDO FRQGLWLRQV RI WKH HQWHUSULVH ZKLFK ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH WULDQJXODUVHWV–ORZPHGLXPDQGKLJKLQWKH>–@UDQJH )LJ 



 

)LJ,QSXWYDULDEOHVIRUPRGHO$$$DQG$

 

)LJ)X]]\YDULDEOHRXWSXWIRUPRGHO$financial condition

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–@UDQJH7KHODVWLQSXWYDULDEOHWREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWLQWKHPRGHOVFRSHRIWKHEXVLQHVV SURILOH RI WKH FRPSDQ\, ZDV WKH QXPEHU RI VHUYLFHV 7)/ RIIHUHG GLYLGHG LQWR WZR VHWV  WULDQJXODU – ORZ  DQG  WUDSH]RLGDO–KLJKLQWKH>–@UDQJH 

 

)LJ,QSXWYDULDEOHVIRUPRGHO%%%%DQG%

7KH RXWSXW YDULDEOH RI WKH PRGHO ZDV % 7KH VFRSH RI DFWLYLWLHV RI WKH FRPSDQ\ )LJ  ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR  WULDQJXODUVHWV ORZDQGPHGLXP DQGWUDSH]RLGDOVHW KLJK LQWKH>–@UDQJH





 )LJ)X]]\YDULDEOHRXWSXWIRUPRGHO%scope of activities

0RGHO& 0RGHOFRQVLVWHGRIRXWSXWYDULDEOHV$UXOHEDVHFRQVLVWLQJRISRVWXODWHVZDVFUHDWHGIRUWKHPRGHO 7KHLQSXWYDULDEOHVZHUH )LJ  x & – LQGH[ RI WKH UDQJH RI SRVLWLYHO\ HYDOXDWHG VHUYLFHV 7KLV ZDV WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI DOO FOLHQWV FRPSOHWHO\ VDWLVILHG ZLWK WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH PRVW FRPPRQ ORJLVWLFV VHUYLFHV 7KH YDULDEOH ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH VHWV  WULDQJXODU ORZDQGPHGLXP DVZHOODVWUDSH]RLGDO KLJK LQWKH>–@UDQJH x &–ZHLJKWHGVDWLVIDFWLRQLQGH[7KLVVKRZHGWKHOHYHORIWUXVWLQWKHFXVWRPHUVHUYLFHRIDFRPSDQ\ZKLFK ZDV QRW UHSODFHG E\ DQRWKHU 7KH SDUDPHWHU ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH VHWV  WULDQJXODU ORZ DQG PHGLXP  DV ZHOO DV  WUDSH]RLGDO KLJK LQWKH>–@UDQJH x &–PDUNHWSRVLWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIDOOFOLHQWV7KLVZDVDSHUFHQWDJHLQGLFDWLRQRIKRZRIWHQ DORJLVWLFVFRPSDQ\ZDVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHFOLHQWDVWKHOHDGHULQWHUPVRIFXVWRPHUVHUYLFH7KHLQGH[ ZDVGLYLGHGLQWR WKUHHVHWVWULDQJXODU ORZDQGPHGLXP DVZHOODVWUDSH]RLGDO KLJK LQWKH>–@UDQJH x &–QHWSDUDPHWHUVFRUH7KLVLQGLFDWHGKRZRIWHQFOLHQWVXQUHVHUYHGO\UHFRPPHQGHGWKHFRPSDQ\WRRWKHUV KRZRIWHQWKH\GLGQRWUHFRPPHQGLWVVHUYLFHVDQGKRZRIWHQWKH\ZHUHDPELYDOHQW7KHLQGH[ZDVGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHH VHWVWULDQJXODU ORZDQGPHGLXP DVZHOODVWUDSH]RLGDO KLJK LQWKH>–@UDQJH x &–WKHPDUNHWOHDGHULQWHUPVRINH\FXVWRPHUUDWLQJV7KLVSHUFHQWDJHVKRZHGKRZRIWHQDJLYHQORJLVWLFV FRPSDQ\ZDVLQGLFDWHGE\LWVNH\FXVWRPHUVDVWKHEHVWORJLVWLFVFRPSDQ\RQWKHPDUNHW7KHLQGH[ ZDVGLYLGHGLQWR WKUHHVHWVWULDQJXODU ORZDQGPHGLXP DVZHOODVWUDSH]RLGDO KLJK LQWKH>–@UDQJH x & – WKH PRVW FRPSHWLWLYH FRPSDQ\ LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI LWV ERG\ RI FOLHQWV 7KH PDUNHW OHDGHU SRVLWLRQ LQGLFDWRU ZDV FDOFXODWHG DV WKH TXRWLHQW RI WKH QXPEHU RI FOLHQWV ZKR FRQVLGHUHG WKH FRPSDQ\ WR EH WKH EHVW LQ WKH PDUNHWDQGWKHQXPEHURINH\FOLHQWVVWXGLHG7KHUHDUHWKUHHWULDQJXODUVHWVORZPHGLXPKLJKLQWKH>–@UDQJH 

 

)LJ,QSXWYDULDEOHVIRUPRGHO&&&&&&DQG&

7KHRXWSXWYDULDEOHZDVSDUDPHWHU&FXVWRPHUVHUYLFH ILJ DQGZDVGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHVHWVWUDSH]RLGDODQG WULDQJXODUORZPHGLXPKLJKLQWKH>–@UDQJH



 )LJ)X]]\YDULDEOHRXWSXWIRUPRGHO&FXVWRPHUVHUYLFH



0RGHO0 7KHVXPPDWLYHPRGHOZDVDIX]]\PRGHORIWKHHYDOXDWLRQORJLVWLFV\VWHPVFRQVLVWLQJRIUXOHV7KHV\VWHP PRGHO LQWHJUDWHG DOO RI WKH SUHYLRXV PRGHOV LQWR D VLQJOH IX]]\ PRGHO ZKHUH WKH 6LPXOLQN SURJUDP DOORZHG WKH VLPXODWLRQRIWKHPRGHODVZHOODVWKHYHULILFDWLRQRILWVFRUUHFWQHVV7KHPRGHOFRQVLVWHGRILQSXWYDULDEOHV )LJ  $–ILQDQFLDOFRQGLWLRQ WULDQJXODUVHWV %–VFRSHRIDFWLYLW\ WULDQJXODUVHWV &–FXVWRPHUVHUYLFH WULDQJXODU VHWVDQGWUDSH]RLGDOVHW DQGRQHRXWSXW )LJ –HYDOXDWLRQGLYLGHGLQWRWULDQJXODUVHWVDQGWUDSH]RLGDOVHW$OO SDUDPHWHUVZHUHLQWKH>–@UDQJH 

)LJ)X]]\LQSXWYDULDEOHVIRUPRGHO0financial condition, scope of activities, DQGcustomer service 



 )LJ)X]]\YDULDEOHRXWSXWIRUPRGHO0evaluation of logistics systems E

D

F

)LJ*UDSKLFDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH IX]]\ PRGHO VXUIDFH D\ [  [   ZKHUH [ FRQVW E\ [  [   ZKHUH[ FRQVWF\ [[ [ FRQVW

 )URP WKH DERYH WKUHH ILJXUHV WKH ORJLVWLFV V\VWHP HYDOXDWLRQ DVVXPHG H[WUHPH YDOXHV IRU DQDUURZ UDQJH RI YDOXHVIRUWKHDUHDVLQTXHVWLRQLHILQDQFLDOFRQGLWLRQRIWKHFRPSDQ\FXVWRPHUVHUYLFHSDUDPHWHUVDQGVFRSHRIWKH EXVLQHVVSURILOHRIWKHFRPSDQ\ )LJ 7KHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPUHDFKHGLWVPD[LPXPYDOXHV DSSUR[–  IRUWKRVHYDOXHVLQWKHDUHDVLQTXHVWLRQRIDSSUR[–,WVKRXOGDOVREHQRWHGWKDWWKHORJLVWLFVV\VWHPHYDOXDWLRQ ZDVPRUHVWURQJO\FRQGLWLRQHGWRZDUGWKHILQDQFLDOFRQGLWLRQRIWKHFRPSDQ\WKDQWKHRWKHUWZRDUHDVDVHYLGHQFHGE\ WKHILUVWWZRILJXUHVGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWLWZDVDIDFWRUQHFHVVDU\IRUWKHIXQFWLRQLQJRIWKHFRPSDQ\ 

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

Suggest Documents